YouTube Transcript:
Why the world population won’t exceed 11 billion | Hans Rosling | TGS.ORG

so an overview would be like this in the
past the two parents on average got six
children the reason the population was
not growing here from the year 2000 from
the year you know when we started
agriculture way back then 5,000 years
ago it took 5,000 years to go from 10
million to 1 billion this is 1 billion
here it is because one two three four
died sadly before grow going up to have
children themselves the past was
ugly human beings have never ever lived
in ecological balance with nature that's
a myth people have been dying in
ecological balance with nature it's due
to high and tragic death rates of
children and young people that there's
been a balance between human and nature
and that's ugly and people hated it and
they wanted their children to survive
and after the Industrial Revolution we
got soap industrially produced soap we
got piped water and we got some medical
actions you know and instead of four
dying four survived and two died and
that caused the growth of the population
you see two parents four children
doubling in one generation 25 years 1
billion to two billions 25 years more 2
billion to 4
billion and there we went to 7 billion
people and this is what many say oh
population explosion W wahah yeah but it
was
inevitable we didn't want kids to
continue to die and people would not
apply Family Planning until they saw
their kids
surviving all the death rate has to fall
before the birth rate is falling and and
and then many call this exponential
growth have you heard the toone
exponential growth this is exponential f
fter and faster since 1960 we have had
no exponential growth whatsoever we've
had an absolutely linear
growth and for you those of you doing
math you know that linear growth means
that the interest rate is falling every
year we added 1 billion in 14 years 1
billion in 14 years 1 billion in 14
years that means the adding of billions
did not become faster and
faster but there's so much crap written
and said about population growth so they
has put in these xes explosion
exponentially you argue for things based
on scare trying to scare people instead
of making them understand here now we
have a situation where we will add
another 4 billion in spite of already
having reached the New
Balance this is strange why will we add
four billions when the number of
children have stopped
increasing
it's
strange this
one the balance was controlled by death
it was ugly and unacceptable people
would never accept that they tried their
best this balance is controlled by
Love by being able to disentangle
sexuality and reproduction and some
religious leaders haven't got it
yet we try to make it very simple to
understand that this is a good thing
it's a good thing that you can separate
those two and
and and why will it be 11 billions well
I have some more improved educational
material from Gap minder here I brought
these blocks
here imagine that this is 1 billion
people you can see here one billion
people and these ones are children below
15 here's the age
see they are below 15 these are the
children they're two billion in the
world next age group 15 to 30 they are
also almost two billions I'm going to
simplify not falsify but simplify really
it's actually 1.8 or something here but
I say two billion next group I say it's
1 billion it's actually 1.4 something
but there are less here next group 45 to
61 billion almost precisely 1 billion
then it's my group 60 years and older
and we are not really 1 billion but
almost and we take the help by some
really old people who join our group
here so we have this is the world
population
today this is the world the composition
of the world population you could call
it a population pyramid more in the base
than up here now many think that the
reason these are missing is because they
died no no some are missing because they
died most are missing because they were
never born because back then 30 to 60
years ago there were fewer people born
because there were fewer women then more
and more survived and then we got this
situation now the number of children
will not increase these two billions
will remain two billions for the rest of
this century and the 71 year of life
expectancy it won't increase that much
so let's assume that that stays the same
so if number of children stays the
same length of life stays the same what
will
happen because there are some people
telling me the environmental problems
are so severe so we have to stop world
population below 10 billion aha I is
that so have you studied demography I
said yes yes yes we have to stop it no
you can't I said I will show you know
why you can't stop it below 10 because
imagine let's look at let's look at me
my group what happened to people like me
do you know
that no one has a family that are
Undertakers they die we die the old
people die some think we become Angels
some things we just disappear anyhow
they
disappear what happens to the rest of
you you grow older you grow older and
older and older and 15 years from now
you have changed age group and and then
other children come and replace you down
there can you
see same amount of children as I showed
you then they all die the rest grow
older and older and older and get the
same amount of
children 30 years from now then they all
die it's not so difficult you get it now
they die the rest grow older and older
and older and here they are I mean this
this is you started down there most of
you students 1 2 3 this is when you are
up here you are 60 years now you become
like
me you see when you are like me it's
filled up to here and we have three
billion
more you saw the
magic without increasing the number of
children without increasing the length
of life we got three billion more I'll
do it once
more because you're in doubt there
someone think here I made this up you
know in some way the all die the rest
grow older and they get children they
all die the rest grow older they get
children they all die the rest grow
older they get children and there you
are inevitably you will have three
billion more people because death starts
up here at this age relatively few die
here
135 million children born six million
die every year it's down to 5% that's
mainly down here our death then death
rate is relatively low all the way up
here because life expectancy is
71 now in spite of instead of getting
shorter life what we think is that we
will get longer life and we think we
will get one billion more up there of
course I'm very happy of that that will
give me 15 years more to follow
statistics you
know so now that some people just wrote
in the Swedish newspaper and criticized
me and said we must be less than 10
billions but who should we take
away which one do they want to
remove yeah should we let you know
they take away the old but there still
10
billion it's 10 10 billion you want to
take more can you kill these
two no say no for God's sake it's
forbid don't be in doubt it's absolutely
forbidden Thou shalt not kill haven't
you read the
Bible so what shall you do what shall
you
do I think you will have to do it like
this you have to force people to just
have one
child do you
see if you do like mum they say you
introduce one child it's very delicate
you have to be careful if they did it
like this then they can get 8
billion you think people voluntarily
will go for one
child no I suggested to the leader of
the Swedish environmental
party who argued at one time and said
that that you know we should have less
people in the world I said and we talked
with her and I said yeah why don't you
start with Sweden then because we are
one of the rich country that increased
the number of children per Wom
it's quite easy you just take away the
child allowances the subsidies for the
daycare center and you put in school
fees three simple measures as a
politician the number of children per
woman in Sweden will drop from two to
1.5 of course you will lose the next
election and you have to make a kudat
you know and become
dictator it's very strange how serious
people can suggest
this now I share the con concern about
the environment I share the concern
about elephants and rhinos I share more
than anyone else the concern concern
about the climate but I ain't going to
kill people to achieve it I ain't going
to force people to get
sterilized I ain't going to become
moou because it won't work people won't
accept it they won't accept it and and
and here you can see so I think we will
have to oh yes this is
like
oh you can't you can't mix up with
population like that it's very dangerous
you have to be careful with people H you
have to be very careful with people so
they can live decent their life I think
the solution for the world lies in
respecting people you know and seeing
what it is and that's not difficult we
know everyone should have access to
contraceptives everywhere but not be
forced because if you force people it
will
backfire and we know that the poorest in
Africa they will not use contraceptive
as long as they see their children dying
as long as they don't have a school in
the village as long as they need their
children for work Malala said they don't
go to school because they have to work
to support their family and as long as
things are like this they want their
kids and then some want their kid a
little too long many kids because some
men are proud because because I made so
many children uh and when men think that
their pride is having seven eight nine
children instead of how well their
children are doing that's oldfashioned
patriarchical thinking men have to think
my pride is how well my children are
doing how happy they are in life that's
my pride and when you get that attitude
change you have to get it's not only
providing services this is the number of
birth in the world it has already
happened the number of birth is not
increasing any longer in the
world the adults are increasing you get
it
now you understand why these adults are
adding it's these three just by the fill
up and it's this group here but it's
more to it it's more to it we have to go
a little more into details a little more
into details look
here now it's late in the evening and I
put the demanding explanation of
demography here to you each doll here is
100 million now these one were thousand
Millions 1 billion thousand Millions no
10 out of these dolls is one
here down here I have what is it should
be about 20 down there these ones are
Europeans children these are American
children these are African children as
many children in Africa as in the whole
of the Americas in Europe together and
these are Asian
children and you can see see that at the
age between 15 and 30 then there are
less Africans here's even less African
here's very few
Africans so the African population is
quite dramatic it's still increasing the
number of children in Asia they've
stopped
increasing remember the Asian curve it
was already down to
two so Asia is not increasing Africa is
at 4.5 they will continue to increase
for
another 30 years more or less 30 years
so what happens here is the following
you know it now the old dies the rest
grow older and they have their children
who one more in
Africa One Less in Asia that's why the
number of children doesn't increase the
increase of children in Africa is
compensated by a decrease of children in
Asia and Europe but Europe is so little
it doesn't matter
much they die they grow older and they
get children and one more in
Africa out of think like this out of
four children in China that pass their
15th birthday three are replaced by a
Chinese baby born and one is replaced by
a Nigerian baby
born that means that children
conceptually are moving from Asia to
Africa children in the world remain the
same but they are moving towards poverty
because in poverty the number of
children increase where countries are
more wealthy the number decrease that's
why it's a good reason to support
UNICEF children in the world need
support and here they die they get older
and they get children and they die and
they get older and they get children and
these is the fill up of adults you
remember the three billion I showed you
here these three
billions is the same as that group there
when I make it in more detail it's a
fill up of people and that's why Africa
will increase so much and Asia will
increase so much Africa also increase
her because of an increase of children
and Asia decreased down
there so longer
life this one I hope to be this
one I can follow statistics for 15 more
years you know and see what happens h
this we don't know we don't know here
you see if people want to decrease the
number of people in the world they think
provide prevent contraceptives in Africa
yes go for it but don't think you can
force poor women poor women are clever
otherwise they are dead don't think they
are dumb if they want many children it's
because they see their children dying
they need their kids to help them they
get a better life immediately they will
ask first for family planning to space
children to wait for the next child and
then decide how many they we have this
is a new tool that Gap minder have made
on our web page