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Why the world population won’t exceed 11 billion | Hans Rosling | TGS.ORG
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so an overview would be like this in the past the two parents on average got six children the reason the population was not growing here from the year 2000 from the year you know when we started agriculture way back then 5,000 years ago it took 5,000 years to go from 10 million to 1 billion this is 1 billion here it is because one two three four died sadly before grow going up to have children themselves the past was ugly human beings have never ever lived in ecological balance with nature that's a myth people have been dying in ecological balance with nature it's due to high and tragic death rates of children and young people that there's been a balance between human and nature and that's ugly and people hated it and they wanted their children to survive and after the Industrial Revolution we got soap industrially produced soap we got piped water and we got some medical actions you know and instead of four dying four survived and two died and that caused the growth of the population you see two parents four children doubling in one generation 25 years 1 billion to two billions 25 years more 2 billion to 4 billion and there we went to 7 billion people and this is what many say oh population explosion W wahah yeah but it was inevitable we didn't want kids to continue to die and people would not apply Family Planning until they saw their kids surviving all the death rate has to fall before the birth rate is falling and and and then many call this exponential growth have you heard the toone exponential growth this is exponential f fter and faster since 1960 we have had no exponential growth whatsoever we've had an absolutely linear growth and for you those of you doing math you know that linear growth means that the interest rate is falling every year we added 1 billion in 14 years 1 billion in 14 years 1 billion in 14 years that means the adding of billions did not become faster and faster but there's so much crap written and said about population growth so they has put in these xes explosion exponentially you argue for things based on scare trying to scare people instead of making them understand here now we have a situation where we will add another 4 billion in spite of already having reached the New Balance this is strange why will we add four billions when the number of children have stopped increasing it's strange this one the balance was controlled by death it was ugly and unacceptable people would never accept that they tried their best this balance is controlled by Love by being able to disentangle sexuality and reproduction and some religious leaders haven't got it yet we try to make it very simple to understand that this is a good thing it's a good thing that you can separate those two and and and why will it be 11 billions well I have some more improved educational material from Gap minder here I brought these blocks here imagine that this is 1 billion people you can see here one billion people and these ones are children below 15 here's the age see they are below 15 these are the children they're two billion in the world next age group 15 to 30 they are also almost two billions I'm going to simplify not falsify but simplify really it's actually 1.8 or something here but I say two billion next group I say it's 1 billion it's actually 1.4 something but there are less here next group 45 to 61 billion almost precisely 1 billion then it's my group 60 years and older and we are not really 1 billion but almost and we take the help by some really old people who join our group here so we have this is the world population today this is the world the composition of the world population you could call it a population pyramid more in the base than up here now many think that the reason these are missing is because they died no no some are missing because they died most are missing because they were never born because back then 30 to 60 years ago there were fewer people born because there were fewer women then more and more survived and then we got this situation now the number of children will not increase these two billions will remain two billions for the rest of this century and the 71 year of life expectancy it won't increase that much so let's assume that that stays the same so if number of children stays the same length of life stays the same what will happen because there are some people telling me the environmental problems are so severe so we have to stop world population below 10 billion aha I is that so have you studied demography I said yes yes yes we have to stop it no you can't I said I will show you know why you can't stop it below 10 because imagine let's look at let's look at me my group what happened to people like me do you know that no one has a family that are Undertakers they die we die the old people die some think we become Angels some things we just disappear anyhow they disappear what happens to the rest of you you grow older you grow older and older and older and 15 years from now you have changed age group and and then other children come and replace you down there can you see same amount of children as I showed you then they all die the rest grow older and older and older and get the same amount of children 30 years from now then they all die it's not so difficult you get it now they die the rest grow older and older and older and here they are I mean this this is you started down there most of you students 1 2 3 this is when you are up here you are 60 years now you become like me you see when you are like me it's filled up to here and we have three billion more you saw the magic without increasing the number of children without increasing the length of life we got three billion more I'll do it once more because you're in doubt there someone think here I made this up you know in some way the all die the rest grow older and they get children they all die the rest grow older they get children they all die the rest grow older they get children and there you are inevitably you will have three billion more people because death starts up here at this age relatively few die here 135 million children born six million die every year it's down to 5% that's mainly down here our death then death rate is relatively low all the way up here because life expectancy is 71 now in spite of instead of getting shorter life what we think is that we will get longer life and we think we will get one billion more up there of course I'm very happy of that that will give me 15 years more to follow statistics you know so now that some people just wrote in the Swedish newspaper and criticized me and said we must be less than 10 billions but who should we take away which one do they want to remove yeah should we let you know they take away the old but there still 10 billion it's 10 10 billion you want to take more can you kill these two no say no for God's sake it's forbid don't be in doubt it's absolutely forbidden Thou shalt not kill haven't you read the Bible so what shall you do what shall you do I think you will have to do it like this you have to force people to just have one child do you see if you do like mum they say you introduce one child it's very delicate you have to be careful if they did it like this then they can get 8 billion you think people voluntarily will go for one child no I suggested to the leader of the Swedish environmental party who argued at one time and said that that you know we should have less people in the world I said and we talked with her and I said yeah why don't you start with Sweden then because we are one of the rich country that increased the number of children per Wom it's quite easy you just take away the child allowances the subsidies for the daycare center and you put in school fees three simple measures as a politician the number of children per woman in Sweden will drop from two to 1.5 of course you will lose the next election and you have to make a kudat you know and become dictator it's very strange how serious people can suggest this now I share the con concern about the environment I share the concern about elephants and rhinos I share more than anyone else the concern concern about the climate but I ain't going to kill people to achieve it I ain't going to force people to get sterilized I ain't going to become moou because it won't work people won't accept it they won't accept it and and and here you can see so I think we will have to oh yes this is like oh you can't you can't mix up with population like that it's very dangerous you have to be careful with people H you have to be very careful with people so they can live decent their life I think the solution for the world lies in respecting people you know and seeing what it is and that's not difficult we know everyone should have access to contraceptives everywhere but not be forced because if you force people it will backfire and we know that the poorest in Africa they will not use contraceptive as long as they see their children dying as long as they don't have a school in the village as long as they need their children for work Malala said they don't go to school because they have to work to support their family and as long as things are like this they want their kids and then some want their kid a little too long many kids because some men are proud because because I made so many children uh and when men think that their pride is having seven eight nine children instead of how well their children are doing that's oldfashioned patriarchical thinking men have to think my pride is how well my children are doing how happy they are in life that's my pride and when you get that attitude change you have to get it's not only providing services this is the number of birth in the world it has already happened the number of birth is not increasing any longer in the world the adults are increasing you get it now you understand why these adults are adding it's these three just by the fill up and it's this group here but it's more to it it's more to it we have to go a little more into details a little more into details look here now it's late in the evening and I put the demanding explanation of demography here to you each doll here is 100 million now these one were thousand Millions 1 billion thousand Millions no 10 out of these dolls is one here down here I have what is it should be about 20 down there these ones are Europeans children these are American children these are African children as many children in Africa as in the whole of the Americas in Europe together and these are Asian children and you can see see that at the age between 15 and 30 then there are less Africans here's even less African here's very few Africans so the African population is quite dramatic it's still increasing the number of children in Asia they've stopped increasing remember the Asian curve it was already down to two so Asia is not increasing Africa is at 4.5 they will continue to increase for another 30 years more or less 30 years so what happens here is the following you know it now the old dies the rest grow older and they have their children who one more in Africa One Less in Asia that's why the number of children doesn't increase the increase of children in Africa is compensated by a decrease of children in Asia and Europe but Europe is so little it doesn't matter much they die they grow older and they get children and one more in Africa out of think like this out of four children in China that pass their 15th birthday three are replaced by a Chinese baby born and one is replaced by a Nigerian baby born that means that children conceptually are moving from Asia to Africa children in the world remain the same but they are moving towards poverty because in poverty the number of children increase where countries are more wealthy the number decrease that's why it's a good reason to support UNICEF children in the world need support and here they die they get older and they get children and they die and they get older and they get children and these is the fill up of adults you remember the three billion I showed you here these three billions is the same as that group there when I make it in more detail it's a fill up of people and that's why Africa will increase so much and Asia will increase so much Africa also increase her because of an increase of children and Asia decreased down there so longer life this one I hope to be this one I can follow statistics for 15 more years you know and see what happens h this we don't know we don't know here you see if people want to decrease the number of people in the world they think provide prevent contraceptives in Africa yes go for it but don't think you can force poor women poor women are clever otherwise they are dead don't think they are dumb if they want many children it's because they see their children dying they need their kids to help them they get a better life immediately they will ask first for family planning to space children to wait for the next child and then decide how many they we have this is a new tool that Gap minder have made on our web page
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