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The Complete Varys, Illyrio and Young Griff

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This analysis delves into the intricate, long-term machinations of Lord Varys in "A Song of Ice and Fire," focusing on his role in orchestrating the rise of "Young Griff" (Aegon VI Targaryen) to the Iron Throne and his broader strategy to destabilize Westeros for his chosen candidate.

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What is going on with Varys, Elio, and

young Griff, or Aegon V 6, Fegon,

whatever you want to call him. What has

Varys been up to all this time? What is

the plan, and will it work? Let's take a

look. Hi everyone, this is Robert.

Welcome to InDeepge Geek. On this

channel, we dive deep into the worlds of

A Song of Ice and Fire, The Lord of the

Rings, and The Witcher. Welcome. This is

a compilation of nine separate videos I

did about Varys, Eyrio, and Young Griff

stitched together into one huge video

for your convenience. I hope you enjoy

it. Sir Barristan Selme went from Lord

Commander of Joffrey's King's Guard to

Lord Commander of Daenerys's Queen's

Guard and Hand of the Queen on the other

side of the world very quickly. How did

that happen? Was it just him deciding to

switch sides? Or was there someone

subtly pulling the strings behind the

scene? A spider perhaps? How on earth

did Sir Barristan Selme go from being

Lord Commander of Joffrey's King's Guard

to Lord Commander of Dany's Queen's

Guard so quickly? It's one of the

biggest turnarounds in the whole series.

And I want to suggest that this isn't

just a matter of one man's conscience

and good reputation leading him to a new

employer, but evidence of how Varys has

been working behind the scenes without

anyone noticing to undermine the

Lannister regime and further his own interests.

interests.

Let's start by underlining the fact that

Sarristen Salmei is the most famous and

respected knight in Westeros by a long

way. A living legend beloved by the

commoners. In fact, so respected was he

that he was allowed to join and head

Robert Baratheon's King's Guard after

being on the losing side in the Battle

of the Trident. He fought against Robert

Baratheon, but got rewarded with not

just keeping his job, but getting a

promotion. And no one doubted for a

second that he would serve honorably.

But behind the scenes, Barristan himself

never felt quite right as a member of

Robert's King's Guard. He did his duty,

but it never quite sat right with him to

abandon House Targaryen, whom he had

given his initial pledge of loyalty and

service to. And indeed, before Robert

pardoned him, he had considered seeking

out young Prince Viceris and offering

his service, but decided against it in

light of the prince's youth, and after

learning that he showed signs of his

father's Targaryen madness. He also

considered it a mark of dishonor to

serve alongside the newly nicknamed King

Slayer, Jaime Lannister. Barristan took

his vows seriously and was being asked

to serve alongside the person who had

murdered the man he had sworn to defend

to the death. Not very honorable. But

eventually, Subaran decided that it

would be wrong to turn his back on the

new king, who had shown such grace in

not only sparing him, but promoting him

to Lord Commander and served dutifully

for the next decade and a half. Which

doesn't mean that Barriston's discontent

ever went away. We saw it bubble over

when he was forcibly retired later, and

Varys will have been well aware of this.

Remember, Varys was the other most

high-profile member of the Mad King's

court to keep their job when the new

king came in. Varys is perhaps the most

astute judge of character in all of A

Song of Ice and Fire. He often can

predict eerily accurately how others

will react. Knowing that gives him a lot

of leeway to manipulate, particularly as

Barristston himself is quite

predictable. If you expect him to do the

honorable, brave thing, you'll usually

be right. It certainly was in this case.

Just as Barriston spoke up about Jaime's

ongoing role in the King's Guard and

later sided with Ned against his king's

decision to send an assassin after Dany,

Varys knew that Barristan would not sit

silently when Robert's will was

disregarded by the Lannisters.

Nor what came next. Only a few days

later was his dismissal from the King's

Guard. Joffrey and Cersei wanted a

loyal, younger Lord Commander, so they

fired the discontented older man named

Jaime in his place and added Sandor

Leane to fill the missing spot.

Barristan's initial reaction was shock

and confusion. Varys, as he often does,

played the role of mediator, telling

Barriston that Lord Tywin Lannister has

granted him attractive land with

servants to see to his every need.

Though the words are gentle, this

actually makes Barriston angrier. It's

adding insults to injury. And we can be

pretty sure Varys knew that that would

be the case. Again, Barristan is

predictable. And when he spat on their

offer and called it pity, it was no

surprise at all. At least no surprise to

Varys. Cersei and Joffrey are noticeably

less competent at reading people. But

there's a big difference between saying

that Varys probably knew that Barristan

would reject their generous offer and

instead storm out in disgust and saying

that Varys had somehow manipulated the

whole thing, that he knew exactly how to

push Barristan's buttons and he got

Joffrey and Cersei to do it for him. So,

what evidence do we have that this was

Varys? Well, in A Clash of Kings, we get

this exchange between Tyrion and Cersei.

While Tyrion is trying to understand

exactly what had been going on in King's

Landing, Tyrion speaks first. Was it

Joffrey's wish to dismiss Sir Barristan

Selme from his King's Guard, too? Cersei

sighed. Joff wanted someone to blame for

Robert's death. Varys suggested Sir

Barristan. Why not? So, Varys suggested

that Barristan be dismissed from the

King's Guard. And as we've already

noted, it was Varys who told Barristan

that Tywin had set aside some land for

him, angering him further. It's easy not

to spot, but it is this suggestion from

Varys that actually makes Barriston rage

quit. He immediately responds by taking

off his white cloak and throwing his

armor to the floor. He is a knight, not

a has been to be pensioned off and given

a house by the seaside. He is deeply

deeply insulted by Varys's offer or

Tywin Lannister's offer as Varys calls

it except that Tywin seems to know

nothing about it. The offer did not come

from him. In fact, when Tywin hears that

Sir Barristan has been dismissed, he is

angry, too. It is one of the things that

prompts him to send Tyrion to take over

as acting hand. So, if Varys's offer

didn't come from Tywin, did it come from

Varys? Later, Tyrion points out

something else to Cersei. Sir Barristan

was the Lord Commander of Robert

Baratheon's King's Guard. The small folk

talk of him in the same way they talk of

Serwin of the Mirror Shield and Prince

Aean the Dragon Knight. What do you

imagine they'll think when they see

Barriston the Bold riding beside Rob

Stark or Stannis Baratheon?

Cersei glanced away. I had not

considered that. father did," said

Tyrion. "It's easy to believe that

Cersei hadn't thought through how

Sabarristan might react and what he

might do afterwards, but not Varys. He

will have been well aware and chose to

say nothing." It's also hard to believe

that Varys, whose little birds see and

hear so much of what goes on in King's

Landing, wouldn't have been able to keep

track of Barristan afterwards and at

least try to capture him because

Barristan didn't exactly rush out of

there as fast as he could. No, he goes

back to the White Sword Tower first,

takes the time to write a record of his

dismissal in the White Book, heads down

to the stables, kills two guards who try

to stop him, rides out of the city,

sells his horse, grows a beard, then

comes back into the city, witnesses Ned

Stark's execution, goes to the great

Sept to pray for Ned's soul, and then

heads back out of the city, having

decided to try to find Viceris. Are we

to believe that Varys knew nothing of that?

that?

Which brings us to the reason why Varys

might have been doing this? He is trying

to weaken the Baratheon Lannister hold

on the Seven Kingdoms so he can place

his own candidate on the Iron Throne.

Barristan is not the only competent

person that Varys has managed to remove

from King's Landing's defenses. There's

also Kevin Lannister, who he killed in

the epilogue to A Dance with Dragons,

and Tyrion, who he smuggled out of the

Black Cells. Of course, Tyrion, like

Barristan, ends up in Pentos with

Magisterio, Varys's co-conspirator.

So, might Varys have further had a hand

in guiding Barristan to Yo, perhaps, but

we don't have any evidence for it. What

we can say is that whereas Tyrion

pondered whether Barristan would end up

supporting Stannis or Rob, Varys, having

known Sir Barristan from his first time

serving the Targaryenss, would have

known better. Barristan would try to

belatedly keep his initial vows, find

Viseris, and serve him. And Viseris's

last known permanent address before

heading off into the Dothraki Sea was

Yrio's mans in Pentos. It's the only

logical place for him to go. straight

into the hands of Varys's ally. And

Varys knew that.

Once with Yrio, they could have tried to

get Barristan to join up straight away

with Team Fagon, young Griff, the man

claiming to be Aegon the 6th that they

are trying to get on the throne. But

plans change. They already have a famous

Westerosi knight protecting him, John

Collington. And meanwhile, Dany has

turned from an expendable princess to

potentially a major part of their plans.

Rumors have started to emerge that she

is now based in K, has hatched dragons,

and is actively looking for ships to

take her and her entourage west. A long

way from being expendable, she is now

central to the plan. Perhaps they can

even marry her to Fegon and have dragons

on their team. But who to send to her to

bring her back to Pentos? Well, I'm sure

you're ahead of me here. Who better than

a Westerosi figure so legendary that

even Dany, who has never set foot on

Westeros, will know about. A man whose

deeds deserve her respect. A man able to

make that connection to her family that

she has lost. And a man who can win her

trust even more by unmasking the traitor

in her inner circle, Sir Jorah, who had

been sending messages back to Robert

Baratheon's spy master. Because Varys

and Elyo now had plans for Dany, they

wanted someone they and she could trust

to protect her loyally and could escort

her back to Pentos. And they hoped at

the time a marriage with young Griff aka

Aegon V 6th with Daenerys and her

dragons and armies joining his side for

a forthcoming invasion of Westeros.

Someone worth protecting. In other words,

words,

Aristan the Bold undoubtedly gives honor

to any cause he's associated with. So

there is no doubt that whichever king's

guard or queen's guard he is a member of

will gain a degree of authenticity

simply by his membership of it and by

association that king or queen would

themselves appear more legitimate.

Ultimately Varys wanted Barristan in

Fegon's king's guard because this is

where his manipulating seems to have

found its limit for the time being

because Dany did not simply accept the

offer to be shipped back to Pentos.

Instead, she stopped off at Slavers Bay,

got herself an army of Unsullied,

defeated Astapor and Yunkai, freed the

slaves, and made herself ruler of

Meereen. Along the way, she named

Barristan Lord Commander of her Queen's

Guard. Then she decided not to head west

straight away, and not entirely of her

own valition, headed off with Drogon

into the Dothraki Sea. Fegon, young

Griff understandably got a bit tired of

waiting for this woman he'd never even

met and launched his invasion anyway.

So, looking at it from one perspective,

all of Varys's manipulating behind the

scenes has so far come to little.

Barristan may no longer be there to help

manage King's Landing's defenses, which

is a win for Varys, but he is still a

long way from being a part of Team Feon.

But there may be one more twist to this

storyline because at some point

Barristan will learn about young Griff

by then perhaps even fully established

in King's Landing as Aegon the 6th

Targaryen. Barristan's honor is a

curious thing because it makes him one

of the more predictable characters in A

Song of Ice and Fire. What would he do

if Dany returns and does things he

considers reminiscent of her father

Aris? Is that possible? Well, George R.

Martin rarely comments on blogs and the

like about his writing, but he did once

about a mirror blot blog post saying it

got it completely. That blog post

concluded that the whole plotline in

Meereen is designed to maneuver Dany

into a mental place where she'll decide

to sideline her concerns for innocent

life and take what she wants with fire

and blood.

Interpret that how you will, but I think

it's fair to say that Dany's story in

the winds of winter will be a darker

one. And if at the same time we get

darker Dany, Sir Barristan learns that

there is another Targaryen alive,

claiming to be ahead of Dany in the line

of succession and son of the Targaryen

he rated most highly, Rhaegar. Might he

switch allegiances again? He might well

think it's the only honorable thing to

do. Perhaps Varys will get his way after all.

all.

What does Varys want? What drives him?

He's one of the most mysterious

characters in A Song of Ice and Fire.

So, let's take a look. In Ned's last

chapter in A Game of Thrones, Varys

visits him in the black cells. Ned asks

him the question that so many have

wondered. Tell me, Lord Varys, who do

you truly serve?

Varys smiled thinly. Why the realm, my

good lord? However could you doubt that?

I swear it by my lost manhood. I serve

the realm, and the realm needs peace.

Which sounds very noble. But Ned isn't

alone in being unsure of Varys's true

motivations. He professes complete

loyalty in turn to three kings of the

seven kingdoms. Despite not coming from

Westeros and is clearly plotting to

place young Griff Feon onto the throne,

he has climbed to the highest council

offices and wears rich silks and

velvets. And yet his private room is

frugal and he sleeps on a stone bed. He

claims to be acting for the children and

yet cuts the tongues out of his army of

child spies. It's all very contradictory.

contradictory.

So what do we know about his background?

He was apparently born a slave in lease.

The implication being that he is the

bastardborn child of one of the many sex

workers there from an unknown father and

a probably now untraceable mother. This

is of course entirely believable but

also conveniently vague. He claims then

to have been apprenticed as a child to a

mummer's troop in a traveling show when

in Mia a sorcerer offered Varys's owner

a hefty sum to buy him. The man drugged

him inducing paralysis but he felt

everything. The sorcerer made him into a

unic and burned the parts he removed in

Abraasia. The flames turned blue and a

demonic voice spoke in a language he

didn't understand. Varys tells Tyrion

it's not the pain he recalls most of

all, but that voice. This is terrifying,

but did it really happen? There are big

questions. Why would Varys's master sell

him if he was a useful and promising

member of the troop? And why would the

sorcerer pay such a large sum of money

for Varys in particular when there will

surely have been plenty of other cheaper

orphan boys to choose from? Might he be

descended from royalty? Perhaps that

would explain the high price. We know

there is supposed to be power in a

king's blood and that of a king's

descendants. Aryan Targaryen certainly

spent several years in Lease and George

R. Martin has confirmed that he had

bastard children there. Could Varys be a

grandchild, say? Or how about the

Blackfires? They were in Essos for a

long time. A lot of people have

theorized along those lines, and the

fact we never find out Varys's hair

color only adds to the suspicion. And

yet, we don't have any proof, hence even

more mystery.

Anyway, after that horrific day, Varys

found himself tossed out into the gutter

and committed himself to staying alive

and working his way up in the world. He

made money any way he could, became a

proficient thief, and when he had moved

to Pentos, struck up a partnership with

a young Mapatis. Yo was a bravo, a sword

fighter, and the pair of them came to an

arrangement. Varys would steal things

from rich towns people, and Yo would

hire himself out to track down the thief

and return the stolen goods. In time,

the stolen goods more often became

nuggets of information and secrets,

which were often worth more in the right

hands, which brought him to the

attention of Eris, the mad king, who

wanted a spy master he knew was not

secretly loyal to Tywin Lannister or

anyone else in the Seven Kingdoms. Who

better than a bastardborn Esozi crime

lord? So, that's the story we have.

Varys moved to King's Landing, took up

the mantle of Master of Whisperers, and

retained the confidence of the Iron

Throne despite a couple of changes of

king. Varys is a mummer, a criminal, and

now a spy master. Three different

careers with overlapping skill sets that

each involve deception. So, how much of

this backstory can we therefore believe?

Well, many of the most convincing lies

often have some element of truth to

them, and I'm inclined to think that a

lot of what Varys told us is true.

Certainly, there's no reason to doubt

that he was running a crime syndicate in

Pentos based on learning important

people's secrets and growing rich from

it. That's why the Mad King hired him in

the first place. His strong ongoing

partnership with Yo is similarly

self-evident, and him spending some time

in a mummer's troop in his younger days

also rings true. We see more than once

quite how adept he is at disguises and

changing his manner of speech. No, my

instinct is that the biggest clues as to

who Varys really is and what he wants

lie in the things he hasn't told us.

Why, for example, did he give up such a

lucrative career in Pentos to work for

such a dangerous and unstable employer

as the Mad King? It wasn't for the money

or admiration for Aerys or even just

power for its own sake. He moves

seamlessly from serving Aris to serving

the man who rebelled against Aerys when

he could easily have escaped back to

Pentos. He never seeks to rise any

further to handle the king, say, or live

a conspicuously indulgent life. He seems

to want to just be in that position as

master of whisperers.

So what does he want? Well, we twice

catch him speaking about his plans when

he has absolutely no reason to lie. The

first is when Arya overhears him

speaking with Yio underneath the Red

Keep. Arya doesn't understand what she

has heard, but we do. Varys explains to

Yo the political situation at the time

in Westeros, and Yo says that events are

moving too quickly. They plan to have

Caldrogo's Kalisar invade Westeros, but

that can't happen until Dany<unk>y's

child is born. They discuss timings for

a bit. They clearly want the Seven

Kingdoms to be ripe for invasion at the

right time. The second time we catch

Varys speaking in a more unguarded way

is in the epilogue to A Dance with

Dragons. He shoots Kevin Lannister with

a crossbow, then monologues at him for a

bit, saying this. This pains me, my

lord. You do not deserve to die alone on

such a cold, dark night. There are many

like you, good men in service to bad

causes. But you were threatening to undo

all the queen's good work, to reconcile

High Garden and Castly Rock, bind the

faith to your little king, unite the

seven kingdoms under Tommen's rule.

So he killed him. He goes on, "Your

niece will think the Tyrells had you

murdered, mayhaps with the connance of

the imp. The Tyrells will suspect her.

Someone somewhere will find a way to

blame the Dornishmen. Doubt, division,

and mistrust will eat the very ground

beneath your boy king, whilst Aegon

raises his banner above Storm's End, and

the lords of the realm gather around

him." And that I think answers the

question of what Varys wants. The young

man claiming to be Aegon V 6th to sit on

the Iron Throne and rule. Very broadly,

Varys's part of that plan has been to

ensure that the seven kingdoms is

vulnerable to invasion. But why does he

want that? Perhaps this is, as he

claims, just some noble ideal of putting

a good ruler on the throne. He tells the

dying Kevin that it was for the realm,

for the children. And wax is lyrical

about Fegon's good qualities, not just

his education, but also his care for the

small folk. But if so, why do it for the

seven kingdoms? Why not Pentos or some

other city in Essos that yo and Varys

both already know well, have influence

in, and presumably care about? Why go

over to Westeros at all?

Which brings us back to those theories

that perhaps Varys has something else in

his history that he isn't telling us. In

A Dance with Dragons, Yo tells Tyrion

about his deceased lover and love,

Sarah, who he discovered at a brothel in

Lease, just like Varys, who also came

from Lease. Might there be a connection

there? Could Varys and Sarah perhaps be

related? His sister? Maybe that would

explain the close connection with Yo.

And if young Fegon is Yo and Sarah's son

and perhaps a secret Blackfire through

the female line, that would explain why

they chose the Seven Kingdoms. But all

that is a lot of ifs. But for now, we

can say with some certainty that the

connection between Varys and Yo is more

than just business associates. They have

been close for decades and trust each

other completely. It seems that asking

what motivates Varys is also about what

motivates Yio, which is not to say that

they don't each have different tastes

and priorities. They are just two

different sides of the same agenda.

So, what about those inconsistencies? If

Varys cares about the children, why cut

out their tongues? Let's go back to that

conversation he has with Yo, who it

seems supplies those children little

birds for Varys.

I must have gold and another 50 birds,

says Varys. So many. The voices were

fainter as the light dwindled ahead of

Arya. The ones you need are hard to

find. So young to know their letters.

Perhaps older, not die so easy. No, the

younger are safer. Treat them gently.

If they keep their tongues, the risk.

The voices fade at this point, but it's

clear that though Varys does demand that

his child spies do indeed get mutilated

like this, he wants them to be treated

gently. How does that add up? And how

can he rationalize brutally murdering

Kevin and Pycel while talking about

doing it for the realm for the children

and trying to justify his choice as king

by saying that Fegon knows that kingship

is his duty that a king must put his

people first and live and rule for them.

He didn't need to say those things.

Kevin would be dead within minutes. We

have to assume that he meant it. So

what's going on? I think in his own way,

Varys does care about the small folk and

wants the best for them. There is

probably some kind of familial link, but

he genuinely also thinks that Fegon

ruling as king would improve the lives

of so many people. But crucially, in his

mind, that means that all the violence

and the murders are worth it. In the

long run, he thinks the end justifies

the means. George R. Martin has created

Varys as a deliberately mysterious

character. He wants us to be guessing at

his motivations. But I think it is

slowly becoming clear that Varys wants

the best for the people of Westeros. And

as a part of that wants to put Fagon on

the Iron Throne. But in order to do

that, he has to do the very things and

become the very kind of person that have

been so terrible for Westeros for so

long. He thinks that to bring peace and

justice, he must first bring war and horrors.

horrors.

Whose voice did Varys hear in the

flames? What did it say? And what does

it mean for the rest of A Song of Ice

and Fire? What Varys heard from the

flames as a child is one of the most

intriguing mysteries in A Song of Ice

and Fire. It was clearly a dramatic and

traumatic experience, but it gets very

little explanation, and the action moves

on swiftly.

Let's start by reminding ourselves of

what Varys actually tells us. He is

talking to Tyrion here about how Renley

and Courtney Penrose might have died at

Storm's End. That was Melisandre's

shadow babies, remember? Though neither

Varys nor Tyrion know that, and wants to

suggest to the skeptical Tyrion that it

was magic. Tyrion expresses a healthy

skepticism and Varys responds by telling

Tyrion the tale of how he became a unic

when he was a young child working as

part of a mama's troop in Essos. He

says, "One day at Mir, a certain man

came to our folly. After the

performance, he made an offer for me

that my master found too tempting to

refuse. I was in terror. He gave me a

potion that made me powerless to move or

speak, yet did nothing to dull my

senses. With a long hooked blade, he

sliced me root and stem, chanting all

the while. I watched him burn my manly

parts on a brazier. The flames turned

blue, and I heard a voice answer his

call, though I did not understand the

words they spoke. I still dream of that

night, my lord. Not of the sorcerer, nor

his blade, nor even the way my manhood

shriveled as it burned. I dream of the

voice. The voice from the flames. Was it

a god, a demon, some conjurer's trick? I

could not tell you, and I know all the

tricks. All I can say for a certainty is

that he called it, and it answered, and

since that day I have hated magic, and

all those who practice it. If Lord

Stannis is one such, I mean to see him dead.

dead.

We'll come on to what was said and by

whom in a moment, but we should

acknowledge first that this is not just

a friend sharing his tragic backstory.

Varys was trying actively to win Tyrion

to his side at this point to prove his

loyalty with a personal motivation not

to let Stannis win. So perhaps this is a

madeup story to win over Tyrion. Or

perhaps, as Varys himself admits, it was

a long time ago. He was young and had

been drugged, so perhaps he imagined it

all. Both are possibilities. But let's

go with the assumption that Varys is

here telling the truth. So, what was

going on? Well, probably the most

intriguing part about the first half of

Varys's story is why he was chosen. It

seems the magicians specifically asked

for Varys and paid a very high price for

him, which is strange because so far as

Varys has told us, he was just an orphan

boy apprenticed to some traveling

mummers. There must have been hundreds,

if not thousands of similar boys

throughout Mir, many of which would not

have been missed if they were taken. But

the magician wanted Varys and was

willing to pay good money for him.

Presumably, there was something about

Varys that made cutting him particularly

efficacious or powerful. George R.

Martin hasn't told us all the ins and

outs of how magic works in his world,

but magic clearly comes at a cost, and

the greater the sacrifice, the greater

the power of the magic. King's blood,

for example, is said to be very

powerful. Might Varys be special in this

sense? Might he be secretly related to

royalty? At the time, magic was hard to

perform, particularly fire magic. The

pyromancers in King's Landing were

finding it hard to do their spells.

Glass candles weren't working, and fire

mages in Essos had a lot less power than

they did, say, after Dan<unk>'s dragons

were born because that was the turning

point for the kind of ambient level of

magic in the world. So, a magician

wanting to perform some serious magic

like this seems to be would need to get

all of the help they could get. And we

might expect unscrupulous sorcerers to

be actively on the lookout for these

kind of almost royals, bastards, and

distant relations. So, it's definitely

possible that Varys, perhaps even

unbeknownst to himself, has some secret

link to a kingly line. Though, for our

purposes now, it doesn't actually make

much difference. Varys was clearly only

important in making the magic ritual

work. Once it was over, he was tossed

out and left for dead. that won't tell

us who was being contacted. The magician

chanted a bit, called out, and threw

Varys's parts onto the brazier, where

the flame turned blue. Then a voice

answered from the flames. Varys did not

understand what was said, so presumably

it was in a foreign language of some

kind, and as he was the only witness to

the ritual that we've met, we also don't

and can't know exactly what was said.

But even from that short scene, we can

draw some pretty strong conclusions.

First, the sorcerer was clearly trying

to contact someone. And given the

lengths that he went to, this must have

been someone or something that he

wouldn't just be able to go and visit.

So, either some spiritual being on

another plane or someone in a far-flung

and inaccessible place. In other words,

almost certainly someone we haven't met

so far in the story, which is backed up

by the fact that although this was

apparently a memorable voice, Varys

doesn't seem to have heard it since. So,

it's no one that he has ever actually

met. Second, this seems to be someone

acting on their own. The sorcerer found

Varys himself, drugged and cut himself,

and performed the magic himself, even

disposing of Varys afterwards himself.

This isn't someone operating as part of

a large organization. Nor does he seem

to be a priest. Varys consistently calls

him a sorcerer rather than a priest. And

then third, and perhaps most

intriguingly, the flames turned blue.

So, this is fire magic of a sort, and

there's an obvious echo later in the

story of Melisandre throwing the leeches

with Edric Storm's blood onto a brazier

in order to perform some magic. The

flames then didn't turn blue, but there

are a surprising number of times in the

story where we do get blue flames or

blue fire imagery. In no particular

order, and this isn't an exhaustive

list, by the way, there are more

examples. In Jaime's vision, when he

sleeps with his head resting on a

weirwood stump, he and Brienne both

carry swords with blue fire. We read,

"As he raised the sword, a finger of

pale flame flickered at the point and

crept up along the edge, stopping a

hand's breath from the hilt. The fire

took on the color of the steel itself,

so it burned with a silvery blue light

and the gloom pulled back.

Patchface in one of his nonsense but

probably prophetic rhymes says that

under the sea smoke rises in bubbles and

flames turn green and blue and black.

Terion, the dragon ridden by Prince

Darren Targaryen in the dance of the

dragons, has cobalt blue flame. The eyes

of the others we see in the prologue are

a blue that burned like ice. Then we're

told the reanimated Wayar Royce's eyes

burned blue. And Oor the white who

attacks General Mormont is said to have

burning blue eyes. When Dany enters the

funeral p and the three dragon eggs

hatch, we read that she saw crimson fire

lions and great yellow serpents and

unicorns made of pale blue flame. She

saw fish and foxes and monsters, wolves

and bright birds and flowering trees,

each more beautiful than the last. She

saw a horse, a great gray stallion

limmed with smoke, its flowing mane and

nimbus of blue flame.

And then, if you want to go even wider,

dragon glass is often referred to as

frozen fire. There are plenty of ice

dragon references, particularly in

connection with Jon. And then we get on

to the whole fire and ice together

thing. That's a lot. So, what do blue

flames signify? Well, there's no one

thing that covers all of those

instances, but a lot of them definitely

share a kind of death and rebirth motif.

Dragons being born amidst a funeral p.

Wear Royce being killed then brought

back as a white. We're expecting Jon or

Jon's body to be killed and then for him

to come back from the dead. Patch face

was thought to drowned and then

miraculously came back to life and so

on. And of course, fire and ice or blue

flames are figuratively a representation

of the meta story itself. Ice and fire

at odds and also together. So what does

all this mean? Well, feel free to

speculate down in the comments section.

I am ready for tinfoil on this. Could

Varys have randomly overheard a

conversation with the great other? Was

this some pact with an unknown god?

simply some kind of long-distance

communication. The truth is though that

we don't know for sure. We simply don't

have enough evidence to say definitively

who or what that voice came from. Or

even if we are even more honest, that

this whole story wasn't just made up by

Varys. Tyrion does notice that before he

starts, Varys's voice changes subtly,

perhaps as if this is a prepared speech

or character that the old actor has used

before. What I want to suggest to you is

that we don't know, but that is okay.

Maybe we'll learn more later in the

story, but if we don't, this seems

deliberate on George R. Martin's part.

We aren't supposed to know. Varys

doesn't know, and he was there. Tyrion

certainly hasn't got an idea. As fans of

A Song of Ice and Fire, we instinctively

want to connect these kinds of loose

threads to the larger story. But in a

fully realized and complex world, not

everything will connect together.

There's a very real possibility that

what was going on here was nothing to do

with the main plot of A Song of Ice and

Fire. This is a huge created universe

with fully rounded cities and people. It

would actually make it a lot smaller and

less realistic a creation if all events

and people and characters pasts were

tied in with this one main story. And

when I say it was deliberate on George

R. Martin's part. What I mean is that

what he is wanting to show us is that

the important thing here is the impact

on Varys. As far as his character and

story is concerned, what he heard is

less important than how he reacted to it

and how it affected him, how he let it

shape his life. He was left to die and

decided to live, to rise in power,

driven by his hatred and fear of what

had happened to him. It made him

suspicious of magic, determined to

succeed in life and ultimately

determined the person he became. This is

a common theme in A Song of Ice and

Fire. The actual words of prophecies say

are less important than whether people

believe them and act on them. It matters

less whether Daenerys actually is the

rightful heir of the seven kingdoms.

What matters more is that she believes

she is, and that belief drives the

action. It matters less whether Stannis

is or was Azor Ahai reborn than whether

Melisandre believes it. Her belief and

reaction to it is what drives the

action. And it's the same here. What was

actually said in that ritual and by whom

is less important than the impact on

Varys. His reaction to it is the

foundation of who he is. How does Varys

know so much? Who are his little birds?

Are they still working for him? And what

might that mean for Varys's fate in the story?

story?

We are introduced to Varys early in book

one and told straight away that he is a

man who knows things he should not. It's

Catelyn's fourth chapter, the one where

she arrives at King's Landing, and she

takes care to conceal herself, even

bribing people, but fails spectacularly.

She barely has time to get into an inn

when Littlefinger finds her. How did he

know? Varys told him. Apparently,

"Lord Varys knows all," Peter said with

a slight smile. "He will be joining us

shortly, but I wanted to see you alone

first. It has been too long, Cat. How

many years?" Catelyn ignored his

familiarity. There were more important

questions. "So, it was the king's spider

who found me." Littlefinger winced. You

don't want to call him that. He's very

sensitive. comes of being a unic. I

imagine nothing happens in this city

without Varys knowing. Oft times he

knows about it before it happens. He has

informants everywhere. His little birds,

he calls them. One of his little birds

heard about your visit. Thankfully,

Varys came to me first.

This is a big introduction. Varys knows

all. We're told nothing happens in the

city without him knowing. He has

informants everywhere. his little birds,

he calls them. Varys arrives soon after

in the same chapter and basically

confirms all that. His little birds have

furthermore told him about the Valyrian

steel dagger she has and its role in the

attempt on Bran's life. The movements of

Sir Rodri Castle since he'd been in the

city and what he'd talked about. It's an

impressive flex from Varys. Though not

seen, his little birds are introduced

alongside him, which is fitting given

how important they are to his success.

But who are these little birds? Where

did they come from? What role do they

have in the story to come? Littlefinger

gives us something of an answer when he

tells Catelyn that Varys's little birds

are a network of informers. Though we

should be skeptical of anything

Littlefinger says, he's absolutely

truthful in this case. But this isn't

saying much. Of course, Varys pays

people in various places for valuable

information and news and such. That much

is plain. There have been many spy

master figures in A Song of Ice and

Fire. Master of whisperers or otherwise.

A network of informers is something all

of those characters have in common and

would likely hold true outside of A Song

of Ice and Fire, even in the real world.

No doubt Varys's network of people

willing to sell him information is

large. But Varys's ability to know

everything that is going on in King's

Landing goes far beyond that. It's easy

to miss because it comes so early in the

story, but it's notable that even

Littlefinger is impressed by Varys's

abilities. In other words, while all spy

masters have information networks,

Littlefinger himself included, Varys is

exceptional. Within the confines of

Westeros, we occasionally see someone

with skills that go beyond the

ubiquitous spy network, and often this

is manifested via the supernatural.

Blood Raven was a master of whisperers

who could glean information by

disguising himself with glamours and by

listening through the ears of ravens, if

not other animals. This idea is teased

in a game of thrones, too. Varys is a

man whose level of knowledge borders on

the supernatural. Characters like

Catelyn and Ned wrestle with the idea

that he is indeed using sorcery. Yet,

this is directly refuted by Varys

himself when he tells Tyrion the story

of his maming. He claims he has hated

magic and those who use it ever since

the day he was cut. Of course, it's

possible he's lying about that. We

mustn't forget who we're dealing with.

Nevertheless, the clues George R. Martin

gives us regarding Varys's little birds

contain very little to suggest the

supernatural, nor does much else about

Varys suggest magic. There's no direct

evidence and some counter evidence.

Instead, the clues take us somewhere

every bit as dark and terrible as the

mysterious voice that Varys heard from

the blue flame, and every bit as brutal

as the ritual that cut him to summon it.

That nameless sorcerer didn't kill

Varys. He simply dumped him on the

street, expecting him to die. Varys

famously told Tyrion that despite the

man, he resolved to live. He rose

through the criminal ranks from the

lowest of the low to the highest of the

high. from the gutters to the prince of

thieves in Mir. That ended when arrival

informed on him and he had to flee for

Pentos where he met Yio where he started

playing politics and where he first

started using little birds. At first

they were called little mice. They stole

valuables and brought them back to

Varys. But eventually they started

stealing secrets, the sort that could

harm or destroy elite individuals if not

families. The change to stealing

valuable secrets instead of valuable

goods is likely the difference between

birds and mice in this context. Birds

can speak and sing. In this case, they

can speak and sing secrets. Mice cannot.

With access to the secrets of half the

nobles in Pentos, Varys no longer had to

worry about the authorities coming to

kill him, exile him, or send him back

into slavery. Most of them owed him

favors or relied on him for information,

which sounds very similar to how he

operates in Westeros. Over time, Varys

perfected and improved his techniques,

and this is why he was hired by King

Aries. Fast forward to the pages of A

Song of Ice and Fire, where Varys has

spent decades in the game. All along

doing to other children a version of

what was done to him. Like him, his

little birds are highly trained. They

use disguise and they are slaves who

have been maimed. It's a dark inversion

of Varys's little birds singing to him,

aka repeating stolen information they

were taught to memorize. This is a

brutal irony. His little birds cannot

sing nor even whisper because they have

no tongues. Their language is a unique

written cipher known only to Varys. They

cannot communicate with anyone but him

and perhaps each other. To these little

birds, to these children. Varys is the

voice in the blue flames calling,

answering, demanding more. 50 more

little birds, he says to Yio in Arya's

hearing deep below the red keep. She has

no idea what they are talking about. No

idea that 50 little birds means 50

children enslaved and brutally trained.

50 children with their tongues removed

and never given a chance at normal life.

Yo bulks at having to provide 50 more.

He complains about how hard they are to

train, how much they cost, how easily

they die. He suggests they use older

children instead, but Varys says the

risk is too great. And Arya hears no

more of the conversation after that.

If older children are not effective for

his purposes, then what happens to the

little birds who survive and grow older?

One possibility comes to us through

Tyrion's POV. He spends some time at

Yio's mans and tries to start

conversations with several different

servants. None of them respond. None of

them even talk to him. He brushes this

off as them not speaking the same

language as him. Or he muses, perhaps

they've been commanded not to speak to

him. But it could be that they are

incapable of speaking. They could be

retired little birds whose tongues were

removed long ago.

A Song of Ice and Fire shows us in many

ways that violence begets violence.

Varys is a microcosm of that concept.

That which was done to him for power, he

has done to others. But can he keep this

a secret forever? Will he get away with

it? He might, but it's probably more

likely that he's eventually discovered.

This isn't a one-off that he could sweep

under the carpet. There are now

hundreds, if not thousands of victims,

many of whom will presumably now have

grown up and many of whom might not be

as loyal as Varys thinks. One of these

children could be strong enough to break

through the conditioning or be caught by

one of Varys's many enemies. Varys

guards against this by ensuring his

little birds can't speak or write, so

even if they got caught, they could

reveal nothing. But is that as strong a

defense as he thinks? George R. Martin

has already given us one example of a

child who can't speak but when court

gives up valuable information to his

previous master's enemies Wex Theon

squire who informs Lord Manderly and

Robert Glover of the location of Rickon

and Osha despite being born dumb as

Robert Glover says until he learns more

letters we will never know half the

truth but he came to us knowing yes and

no and those can go a long way once you

find the right questions.

And the more little birds there are and

the more overt their actions, the more

likely discovery becomes. Previously,

they seem to have been mostly just

listening in on conversations and the

like. But as Varys and Yo's long-term

plan to place young Griff on the throne

is coming to a head, he appears more

willing to use his little birds

aggressively. For example, the final

chapter of A Dance with Dragons is

Kevin's epilogue, a chilling scene where

Varys shoots him with a crossbow before

a group of little birds with daggers

finishes him off. The way they are

described is unsettling. We read that

they were all around him, half a dozen

of them, white-faced children with dark

eyes, boys and girls together, and in

their hands the daggers.

It's the final line in A Dance with

Dragons. Quite a way to finish a book,

and this was a surprise to many readers.

We knew they spied and stole

information, but this was perhaps our

first evidence that the little birds

were also used to kill. What other uses

might Varys have for them? It's

uncomfortable to imagine. A

[clears throat] small child, clearly one

of the little birds, opens the door to

Pycel's apartments for Kevin, and he

seems to find it completely

unremarkable, throwing his cloak at her

without thinking. There are clearly

children all over the Red Keep, running

messages, cleaning things, opening

doors, and apparently many of them are

little birds. The Dennisens of the Red

Keep are blly living their day-to-day

lives not knowing that or ignoring the

small army of potential assassins that

scurry around beneath their notice. So,

who might discover the truth of this?

And how will they react? That second

part is quite important because in the

cutthroat world of ice and fire, some

people will surely not care or just view

it as how kingdoms are run. But others

who might care might find out. For

example, Kyburn is Varys's successor as

master of whisperers. He will be

developing his own informant network in

King's Landing. We read in Cersei's POV

that she thinks that Varys's spies have

simply moved over to Kyburn, but Kyburn

is surely not that naive. There's a good

chance he will be keeping an eye out for

whatever remains of Varys's network. And

if he does discover something and tell

Cersei, well, I think we know how she

will react swiftly and with brutality.

Or how about Arya? I have previously

speculated on the heavy foreshadowing

George R. Martin seems to be giving us

for Arya skin changing into one of the

cats in the Red Keep, perhaps Bolerion

himself. And two or three of the names

on her list are in King's Landing, so

there's a healthy chance she will at

least consider going there when she

leaves Braavos. And cats are even more

unnoticed than small children in the Red

Keep. She has already witnessed Varys

ordering in some more little birds from

Yrio. If she then discovers what that

meant, it will surely offend her strong

moral compass and lead to Varys's name

being added to her list.

Someone else who will surely hate the

idea of what Varys has done to all those

children is Dany. And if things go the

way we think they might, Varys may well

be back out of hiding by the time she

arrives in Westeros. If young Griff

takes King's Landing, well, she may not

personally know immediately if Tyrion is

by her side. He's definitely the kind of

person who can figure things out. He has

firsthand experience of being hand of

the king with Varys as master of

whisperers and spent time at Yio's mans

where the servants are suspiciously mute

retired little birds perhaps. And we

know he suspects Yo to be a slaver. So

it seems that there are several ways for

this secret to come out and surely a few

others that you could think of. And who

would save him? As he said himself a few

times, he has no armies, no house, or

even valiant brothers to defend him. He

makes it sound so noble, almost brave,

that he has so few advantages compared

to the highborn of Westeros. Tyrion even

feels bad for him. Varys claims he buys

his life a new each day by providing

information to those who could easily

have him killed. Information they view

as too valuable to live without. But

they don't know that that valuable

information comes to them over the dead

bodies of slave children.

Varys was highly successful before his

little birds, but they are what took him

from an expert to one of the world's

greatest in the Game of Thrones. They

are both his greatest power and his

greatest liability. If the secret of his

little birds is exposed, it would likely

be his end. He would no longer be able

to buy his life a new. It would be too

costly. It would mean ultimately that

which has given Varys his greatest

advantage throughout his career may also

earn him his downfall. If this dark

secret is discovered, it's likely

something that even the silver tonged

Varys wouldn't be able to talk his way

out of. And perhaps that is right, even

from his own perspective. If he truly is

trying to build a better Pharaoh

Westeros, then there surely wouldn't be

a place in it for someone who does the

dark things that he has done. Is Varys

really a unic or is he maybe a woman in

disguise? It's one of the questions I'm

asked the most. So, let's take a look.

Why do some fans of A Song of Ice and

Fire believe that Varys might secretly

be a woman? And do I agree? I am asked

this question a lot in the comments here

and on my live streams on my other

channel IDG live. Let's start with why

some people suspect that there's more to

Varys than meets the eye, so to speak.

That although he, and I will call him he

throughout this video, just to avoid

confusion, that although he is clearly a

mysterious figure, he's hiding something

even more fundamental. That he isn't a

unic, he's a woman. Could he be?

Technically, yes. In as much as we don't

get to see what is under his robes or

have any other 100% proof one way or the

other, and he may well be a good enough

actor to pull it off, but I think the

evidence in support isn't very strong.

Bars, of course, does give off feminine

vibes, wearing robes for preference,

speaking in a high-pitched voice,

giggling. He wears perfumes. His hands

are described as soft and so on. One of

the disguises he adopts is that of a

woman, too, as Tyrion discovers.

A woman sidled into the light, plump,

soft, matronly with the round pink moon

of a face and heavy dark curls. Tyrion

recoiled. "Is something a miss?" she

asked. "Vary," he realized with

annoyance. "And Varys at least once

refers to himself as like an old woman,

while several people disdainfully

comment in various ways that he isn't a

man. That's a lot of woman vibes going

on, which you could interpret and some

have interpreted as evidence that he is

secretly a woman. But equally, it could

be evidence that he isn't. Would he

really lean into the feminine energy if

he was trying to convince everyone that

he wasn't a woman? Personally, I doubt

it. In truth, Varys gives off unuk vibes

to the characters in the story. None of

the characters who meet him question

this rather basic fact about him,

including the usually very astute

characters like Tyrion. So, let's go a

bit deeper and ask why he might disguise

himself in the first place. If you are a

woman, why would you disguise yourself

as a unic so completely for so long? I

suppose the argument here is twofold.

First, no one suspects a unic. They

can't have children, so can't establish

a legacy or noble house. They are often

patronized and assumed not to be capable

of more demanding tasks, so they can get

away with quite a lot simply because no

one suspects them. Varys certainly makes

use of this. But is that really that

different to how women are treated in

that rather misogynistic world? So

perhaps it's not that he doesn't want

people to know that he's a woman in

general, but a specific woman. The whole

unic thing is just an even stronger

disguise. Many have noted that he keeps

his hair shaved. Is that to hide the

fact that it is a distinctive color?

Perhaps Valyrian silver. Well, perhaps

we're now getting somewhere. He was born

in lease and the predominant coloring

there is silver gold hair. There's a lot

of Valyrian blood there and probably

some Targaryen or Blackfire blood, too.

Certainly, you can find a lot of

linguistic hints in the text that link

Varys to Targaryenss. Only Targaryenss

know all the secrets of the Red Keep's

tunnels and Varys. His head is the shape

of an egg, like Egg from Duncan Egg,

that kind of thing. And several fans

have gone even further and speculated

that he might be Yo's wife or Young

Griff's mother, or perhaps aunt.

Something that might help explain his

apparent commitment to getting Young

Griff onto the throne, assuming he is a

Blackfire. But how could we possibly

know? This, I'm afraid, is where I

believe all the theorizing starts to

fall down. How could we tell? Well, in

the absence of a POV chapter or a

confession, probably the best indicator

is how he is when he thinks he can let

his guard down a bit. When he's with

someone about to die or with someone who

actually knows who he truly is.

Thankfully, we do have a couple of

examples of this. So, let's take a look.

And let's start with that scene in book

one where Arya sees Varys and Yo meeting

in secret beneath the Red Keep. Varys is

with his partner in plotting, clearly

unguarded as he is spilling a lot of

secrets. Secrets that would show he is a

traitor. He doesn't think anyone is

listening in. And in this context, Arya,

who has no hidden agenda here at all. In

fact, she doesn't even know what's going

on thinks Varys is a man based on how he

looks, his voice, and so on. She thinks

that three times. But perhaps even more

damningly, Yio also treats Varys like a

man in his language usage. He jokes that

Varys is a sorcerer, not a sorceress.

Remember, there is no need for those two

to pretend Varys is anything other than

he is at that moment in time. And he

calls him his old friend, not what you

would call your beloved wife or even

probably your sister-in-law. So all the

context clues here are that when Varys

is off guard and with an old friend who

knows the truth, he comes across as a

man, not a woman. The other example we

have is with Kevin. When speaking to

Kevin, having shot him with a crossbow

in the epilogue to A Dance with Dragons,

Varys appears his usual self, slippers,

powdered hands, and so on. But his voice

seemed lower, as if the higher pitched

voice was the disguise he usually used,

but didn't need to in that moment. He

was actually more masculine than his

public profile. So, the context clues

for when Varys is alone actually don't

suggest that he is secretly a woman. But

let's take a look at the timelines. Do

they work for Varys secretly being Young

Griff's mother or someone like that?

Well, the first thing you have to

acknowledge with the timelines is how

long this con would have had to go on

for. Varys moved to King's Landing

sometime in the year 278 or perhaps the

next year. We are now at the year 300

AC. So that's 22 years of being Varys

the Unic. And he was head-hunted for the

role before that. So he must have been

known as Varys the Unicuk in Pentos for

some time before that as well. We don't

know Varys's exact age, but that must

surely be the vast majority of his adult

life. A quarter of a century or more of

being in a full-time disguise. That's a

long, long con. And for what? What

actual gain is there appearing as a unic

rather than a woman for that long? We've

had at least two Mistress of Whisperers

before, so it's not as if anyone thought

that role couldn't be filled by a woman.

But probably even more damning to this

theory is the fact that the disguise

would have had to start before Young

Griff was born. Well before Tyrion

estimates that young Griff is 15 or 16

years old, so 6 years after Varys

arrived in King's Landing. If you hold

that young Griff is actually Aegon, son

of Rhaegar, as claimed, then he would be

perhaps 18. That's still 3 or 4 years

after Varys arrived. So if we are to

hold that Varys is secretly a woman, we

have to hold that he has held up that

act for a quarter of a century without

pause and even in secret with someone

who knows his true identity. Indeed,

when his guard is down, he seems to go

even further the other way, appearing

more masculine. And if we further are to

hold that the reason why he has kept up

this act for almost his entire adult

life is to get and keep his position as

master of whisperers in King's Landing

without suspicion in order to aid young

Griff's path to power. We have to hold

that the decision to adopt that persona

was taken several years before Young

Griff was even conceived and almost

certainly several years before he was

head-hunted or knew he might be

head-hunted for the role of Master of

Whisperers. Why adopt that disguise

before even having a reason to adopt

that disguise? Simply put, I don't think

the timeline supports this theory. And I

don't think the real world advantage of

being perceived as a unic rather than a

woman or even a different man. Baris is

definitely capable of adopting that

disguise is enough to justify the time

and energy needed to keep up the

pretense for so long. Which isn't to say

I don't think there's any merit to these ideas. Varys is a mystery and we

ideas. Varys is a mystery and we shouldn't take his account of his youth

shouldn't take his account of his youth at face value. We don't have any other

at face value. We don't have any other witnesses to what he says and he is a

witnesses to what he says and he is a professional liar. There must be a

professional liar. There must be a reason why he is so set on supporting

reason why he is so set on supporting young Griff. It's not just for the good

young Griff. It's not just for the good of the realm, I'm sure. But it's almost

of the realm, I'm sure. But it's almost certainly also not because he is young

certainly also not because he is young Griff's mother or aunt or someone like

Griff's mother or aunt or someone like that. Young Griff, Fegon, Aegon V 6th.

that. Young Griff, Fegon, Aegon V 6th. He goes by many names, but whoever he

He goes by many names, but whoever he is, he is a very important character in

is, he is a very important character in the books of A Song of Ice and Fire,

the books of A Song of Ice and Fire, launching an invasion of Westeros, no

launching an invasion of Westeros, no less. But who is he really? Arguably the

less. But who is he really? Arguably the most significant character in A Song of

most significant character in A Song of Ice and Fire missing from the TV show

Ice and Fire missing from the TV show was a young man called Young Griff. He

was a young man called Young Griff. He is significant because he claims to be

is significant because he claims to be Aegon Targaryen, the eldest son of

Aegon Targaryen, the eldest son of Rhaegar Targaryen and therefore the

Rhaegar Targaryen and therefore the rightful Targaryen heir to the seven

rightful Targaryen heir to the seven kingdoms. He has amassed an invasion

kingdoms. He has amassed an invasion force before Daenerys, has powerful

force before Daenerys, has powerful allies, has landed in Westeros, and is

allies, has landed in Westeros, and is actually probably just a few weeks away

actually probably just a few weeks away from being able to launch an attack on

from being able to launch an attack on King's Landing. So, is he who he claims

King's Landing. So, is he who he claims to be? Let's start with what we know

to be? Let's start with what we know about him for sure. We first encounter

about him for sure. We first encounter him when Tyrion meets him in a dance

him when Tyrion meets him in a dance with dragons. Tyrion has escaped King's

with dragons. Tyrion has escaped King's Landing and is hiding out at Yiroma

Landing and is hiding out at Yiroma Patis's mans in Pentos. It's fair to say

Patis's mans in Pentos. It's fair to say that his mind is mostly occupied by the

that his mind is mostly occupied by the next jug of wine and ruminating over his

next jug of wine and ruminating over his father's dying words, but his interest

father's dying words, but his interest is peaked by the chance to join a group

is peaked by the chance to join a group of travelers heading down the river Roin

of travelers heading down the river Roin to Volantis with a view to eventually

to Volantis with a view to eventually meeting Daenerys Targaryen and her

meeting Daenerys Targaryen and her dragons. But he soon realizes that his

dragons. But he soon realizes that his travel companions are just as

travel companions are just as intriguing. In particular, he concludes

intriguing. In particular, he concludes that Griff, the leader of the group, is

that Griff, the leader of the group, is an identity taken on by John Conington,

an identity taken on by John Conington, a former hand of the king and close

a former hand of the king and close companion of Rhaegar Targaryen after his

companion of Rhaegar Targaryen after his rumored death from alcoholism.

rumored death from alcoholism. When you add in the other odd characters

When you add in the other odd characters on the boat, Helden half maester,

on the boat, Helden half maester, Septter Lamore, and so on, it's quite

Septter Lamore, and so on, it's quite the mystery for Tyrion to solve, and

the mystery for Tyrion to solve, and working it all out seems to invigorate

working it all out seems to invigorate him a bit. But back to young Griff. This

him a bit. But back to young Griff. This is how we first see him. Tyrion craned

is how we first see him. Tyrion craned his head to one side and saw a boy

his head to one side and saw a boy standing on the roof of a low wooden

standing on the roof of a low wooden building, waving a wide-brimmed straw

building, waving a wide-brimmed straw hat. He was a live and well-made youth

hat. He was a live and well-made youth with a lanky build and a shock of dark

with a lanky build and a shock of dark blue hair. The dwarf put his age at 15,

blue hair. The dwarf put his age at 15, 16, or near enough to make no matter.

16, or near enough to make no matter. The wide-brimmed straw hat immediately

The wide-brimmed straw hat immediately takes fans back to Egg from the Duncan

takes fans back to Egg from the Duncan Egg stories, who similarly wore a hat

Egg stories, who similarly wore a hat like that. So perhaps George R. Martin

like that. So perhaps George R. Martin is immediately trying to make us think

is immediately trying to make us think of a young Targaryen traveling the land

of a young Targaryen traveling the land in disguise. An image we'll come back

in disguise. An image we'll come back to. It takes Tyrion only until they are

to. It takes Tyrion only until they are passing through the sorrows to see that

passing through the sorrows to see that this is ostensibly at least Aegon, son

this is ostensibly at least Aegon, son of Rhaegar Targaryen. Although of course

of Rhaegar Targaryen. Although of course everyone knew that Aegon had been

everyone knew that Aegon had been brutally murdered at the end of Robert's

brutally murdered at the end of Robert's rebellion by the mountain. We read this.

rebellion by the mountain. We read this. The lad flushed. That was not me. I told

The lad flushed. That was not me. I told you that was some Tanner's son from

you that was some Tanner's son from Pisswater Bend whose mother died

Pisswater Bend whose mother died birthing him. His father sold him to

birthing him. His father sold him to Lord Varys for a jug of arbor gold. He

Lord Varys for a jug of arbor gold. He had other sons, but he had never tasted

had other sons, but he had never tasted arbor gold. Varys gave the pisswater boy

arbor gold. Varys gave the pisswater boy to my lady mother and carried me away.

to my lady mother and carried me away. So, that's the story we have. Young

So, that's the story we have. Young Griff is Rhaegar's eldest son, Aegon.

Griff is Rhaegar's eldest son, Aegon. Secretly and dramatically saved by Varys

Secretly and dramatically saved by Varys from the sack of King's Landing years

from the sack of King's Landing years earlier at the end of Robert's

earlier at the end of Robert's Rebellion. Since then, it seems he has

Rebellion. Since then, it seems he has been raised undercover in Essos by John

been raised undercover in Essos by John Conington and with the support of Yo

Conington and with the support of Yo Mopatis, the ridiculously rich magister

Mopatis, the ridiculously rich magister who protected Viceris and Daenerys

who protected Viceris and Daenerys Targaryen for a while. and Varys, who

Targaryen for a while. and Varys, who has retained his place as spy master in

has retained his place as spy master in King's Landing, but not given up on the

King's Landing, but not given up on the dream of there being a better king out

dream of there being a better king out there than either Ais or Robert

there than either Ais or Robert Baratheon. We are told that Varys

Baratheon. We are told that Varys arranged for him to be raised not in

arranged for him to be raised not in riches and privilege, but in learning

riches and privilege, but in learning what a ruler really needs to learn in

what a ruler really needs to learn in Varys's mind at least. This is what he

Varys's mind at least. This is what he says when he's about to kill Kevin

says when he's about to kill Kevin Lannister. though with no obvious reason

Lannister. though with no obvious reason to lie. Aegon has been shaped for rules

to lie. Aegon has been shaped for rules since before he could walk. He has been

since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms as befits a knight to

trained in arms as befits a knight to be. But that was not the end of his

be. But that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes. He

education. He reads and writes. He speaks several tongues. He has studied

speaks several tongues. He has studied history and law and poetry. A scepter

history and law and poetry. A scepter has instructed him in the mysteries of

has instructed him in the mysteries of the faith since he was old enough to

the faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with

understand them. He has lived with fisher folk, worked with his hands, swam

fisher folk, worked with his hands, swam in rivers and mended nets, and learned

in rivers and mended nets, and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can

to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound. He

fish and cook and bind up a wound. He knows what it is to be hungry, to be

knows what it is to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been

hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon

taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a

knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first and live

king must put his people first and live and rule for them, which sounds

and rule for them, which sounds fantastic. And to be fair, although we

fantastic. And to be fair, although we haven't seen huge amounts of him yet, he

haven't seen huge amounts of him yet, he does seem to be quite well adjusted.

does seem to be quite well adjusted. Certainly better king material than many

Certainly better king material than many others. And we have that Duncan egg

others. And we have that Duncan egg imagery again. Aegon V, who had his

imagery again. Aegon V, who had his apprenticeship out on the highways and

apprenticeship out on the highways and byways of the seven kingdoms rather than

byways of the seven kingdoms rather than at court. As king, he then spent a lot

at court. As king, he then spent a lot of his time radically trying to improve

of his time radically trying to improve the rights and protections of the small

the rights and protections of the small folk of the land at the expense of the

folk of the land at the expense of the lordly classes, a cause seemingly close

lordly classes, a cause seemingly close to Varys's heart. So, it has to be said,

to Varys's heart. So, it has to be said, young Griff, as we'll call him from now

young Griff, as we'll call him from now on, just to ease any confusion, seems to

on, just to ease any confusion, seems to have been raised to be a good king, not

have been raised to be a good king, not an entitled one. A king who would care

an entitled one. A king who would care about the poorest and most vulnerable

about the poorest and most vulnerable under his care. Whatever the political

under his care. Whatever the political minations going on around him, young

minations going on around him, young Griff would probably be a good king, or

Griff would probably be a good king, or try to be, whether he is who he claims

try to be, whether he is who he claims to be or not, and whether he succeeds or

to be or not, and whether he succeeds or not, I don't think George R. Martin

not, I don't think George R. Martin wants us to forget this. He just doesn't

wants us to forget this. He just doesn't think that being good is necessarily

think that being good is necessarily enough in a gray power- hungry world.

enough in a gray power- hungry world. Okay, so that said, let's put morality

Okay, so that said, let's put morality and idealized kingship to one side for a

and idealized kingship to one side for a moment and try to work out whether young

moment and try to work out whether young Griff really is who he is supposed to

Griff really is who he is supposed to be, Aegon V 6. Well, he himself

be, Aegon V 6. Well, he himself certainly seems to think so. There is no

certainly seems to think so. There is no hint in the text that he believes he has

hint in the text that he believes he has two layers of secret identity going on.

two layers of secret identity going on. And Griff John Conington similarly also

And Griff John Conington similarly also seems to believe it. We have chapters

seems to believe it. We have chapters from his POV, and he thinks a couple of

from his POV, and he thinks a couple of times about putting Rhaegar's son upon

times about putting Rhaegar's son upon the Iron Throne, and although his hair

the Iron Throne, and although his hair is dyed blue for most of the time we see

is dyed blue for most of the time we see him, his eyes definitely are purple.

him, his eyes definitely are purple. On the other side of the narrow sea, on

On the other side of the narrow sea, on hearing that someone had landed in the

hearing that someone had landed in the stormlands with an army claiming to be

stormlands with an army claiming to be Aegon V 6th, Kevin Lannister, who had

Aegon V 6th, Kevin Lannister, who had witnessed the presentation of baby

witnessed the presentation of baby Aegon's body to the new King Robert

Aegon's body to the new King Robert years earlier, recalls that the girl had

years earlier, recalls that the girl had been recognizably the Princess Reine,

been recognizably the Princess Reine, but the boy, a faceless horror of bone

but the boy, a faceless horror of bone and brain and gore with a few hanks of

and brain and gore with a few hanks of fine hair. None of us looked long. Tywin

fine hair. None of us looked long. Tywin said that it was Prince Aegon, and we

said that it was Prince Aegon, and we took him at his word. So, there is a

took him at his word. So, there is a definite lack of concrete evidence that

definite lack of concrete evidence that this isn't Aegon V 6th. In fact, the

this isn't Aegon V 6th. In fact, the only person who could probably provide

only person who could probably provide that is Varys, who allegedly did the

that is Varys, who allegedly did the baby swap. And as we've already noted,

baby swap. And as we've already noted, he told a soon-to-be dead man that this

he told a soon-to-be dead man that this definitely was Aegon the 6th. Varys also

definitely was Aegon the 6th. Varys also undoubtedly was one of the few people

undoubtedly was one of the few people who could have pulled off such a switch

who could have pulled off such a switch without anyone knowing. He has the

without anyone knowing. He has the skills, contacts, and access to secret

skills, contacts, and access to secret passages in the Red Keep that others

passages in the Red Keep that others simply don't. All of which is quite

simply don't. All of which is quite convincing. So why do so many people in

convincing. So why do so many people in the fandom believe that all is not as it

the fandom believe that all is not as it seems. Firstly, the baby swap plan only

seems. Firstly, the baby swap plan only really works well in retrospect. Varys

really works well in retrospect. Varys may have been able to swap out baby

may have been able to swap out baby Aegon before the attack knowing he would

Aegon before the attack knowing he would likely be killed by the Lannisters. But

likely be killed by the Lannisters. But how was he to know that Aegon's body

how was he to know that Aegon's body would be unrecognizable afterwards and

would be unrecognizable afterwards and his sister Reine's would still be

his sister Reine's would still be clearly identifiable? Was it just a

clearly identifiable? Was it just a lucky guess? Surely a more

lucky guess? Surely a more straightforward answer is that Varys

straightforward answer is that Varys instead later used the fact that Aegon's

instead later used the fact that Aegon's body was unrecognizable to come up with

body was unrecognizable to come up with a believable backstory for the person he

a believable backstory for the person he wanted on the throne. But the big

wanted on the throne. But the big problem here is one of motivations.

problem here is one of motivations. Varys has no particular loyalty to the

Varys has no particular loyalty to the Targaryenss that we know of. Still less

Targaryenss that we know of. Still less to Rhaegar whose apparent coup attempt

to Rhaegar whose apparent coup attempt against Aries II at the Tony and

against Aries II at the Tony and Harrenhal Varys scuppered. So why go to

Harrenhal Varys scuppered. So why go to so much trouble to save Rhaegar's son?

so much trouble to save Rhaegar's son? Yo is the one who bankrolled all this.

Yo is the one who bankrolled all this. But similarly, why is he so willing to

But similarly, why is he so willing to throw his weight and money behind the

throw his weight and money behind the plot? Tyrion asks him this to his face.

plot? Tyrion asks him this to his face. And when yo claims he has been promised

And when yo claims he has been promised a castle and the position of master of

a castle and the position of master of coin, Tyrion simply doesn't believe him.

coin, Tyrion simply doesn't believe him. Liar thought Tyrion. There is something

Liar thought Tyrion. There is something in this venture worth more to you than

in this venture worth more to you than coin or castles.

coin or castles. Yo goes on to say that it is also about

Yo goes on to say that it is also about a debt of affection to Varys, which

a debt of affection to Varys, which sounds closer to the truth, but brings

sounds closer to the truth, but brings us back to Varys's motivations. In fact,

us back to Varys's motivations. In fact, Varys seems less concerned about the

Varys seems less concerned about the surname of the ruler than their

surname of the ruler than their character, which is lordable, even if we

character, which is lordable, even if we don't always agree with his methods.

don't always agree with his methods. Varys serves the realm, or so he tells

Varys serves the realm, or so he tells Ned Stark, not any particular family.

Ned Stark, not any particular family. So, he's not a Targaryen exceptionalist

So, he's not a Targaryen exceptionalist in any way. He didn't even come from

in any way. He didn't even come from Westeros. and having come from the

Westeros. and having come from the gutters himself cares for the small folk

gutters himself cares for the small folk a lot more than the rich and privileged.

a lot more than the rich and privileged. He saw firsthand how Eris and then

He saw firsthand how Eris and then Robert then Joffrey all ruled poorly in

Robert then Joffrey all ruled poorly in their own ways. It's not a giant leap of

their own ways. It's not a giant leap of logic to suggest that the idea of

logic to suggest that the idea of creating a perfect ruler will have

creating a perfect ruler will have appealed to him and he won't have cared

appealed to him and he won't have cared who the child was. What would have

who the child was. What would have mattered to him is that the people

mattered to him is that the people believe that young Griff was Aegon

believe that young Griff was Aegon Targaryen and welcomed his claim to the

Targaryen and welcomed his claim to the throne, not whether he actually was who

throne, not whether he actually was who he claimed to be or even who he thought

he claimed to be or even who he thought he was. He didn't need Aegon Targaryen,

he was. He didn't need Aegon Targaryen, grandson of the mad king and son of the

grandson of the mad king and son of the man so consumed with prophecy that his

man so consumed with prophecy that his pursuit of it threw the kingdom into a

pursuit of it threw the kingdom into a savage civil war. He just needed someone

savage civil war. He just needed someone who looked like they might be Aegon

who looked like they might be Aegon Targaryen. The question is where might

Targaryen. The question is where might he find someone who looks like a

he find someone who looks like a Targaryen? On the evidence we have from

Targaryen? On the evidence we have from Fire and Blood and House of the Dragon

Fire and Blood and House of the Dragon all over the place. For example,

all over the place. For example, Targaryen bastards and their descendants

Targaryen bastards and their descendants in King's Landing and Dragonstone and

in King's Landing and Dragonstone and those of Valyrian descent in Volantis

those of Valyrian descent in Volantis lease and elsewhere in the free cities.

lease and elsewhere in the free cities. And there is, of course, an offshoot of

And there is, of course, an offshoot of the Targaryen family in Essos that

the Targaryen family in Essos that everyone thinks has died out, the

everyone thinks has died out, the Blackfires. There's a whole history here

Blackfires. There's a whole history here to House Blackfire that I'll save for

to House Blackfire that I'll save for another video. But the short version is

another video. But the short version is that they descend from Damon Blackfire,

that they descend from Damon Blackfire, a bastard son of King Aegon IV, who

a bastard son of King Aegon IV, who thought he had a rightful claim to the

thought he had a rightful claim to the Iron Throne. But despite several

Iron Throne. But despite several rebellions and invasion attempts over

rebellions and invasion attempts over the years, he and his descendants and

the years, he and his descendants and supporters were exiled to Essos. We're

supporters were exiled to Essos. We're told that the last of the Blackfire

told that the last of the Blackfire pretenders was killed in the War of the

pretenders was killed in the War of the Nine Penney Kings some 40 or so years

Nine Penney Kings some 40 or so years ago. Might Varys have picked one of them

ago. Might Varys have picked one of them and just pretended from an early age

and just pretended from an early age that this was Aegon Targaryen? It's

that this was Aegon Targaryen? It's definitely possible. So, all of that

definitely possible. So, all of that works well with Varys's motivations, and

works well with Varys's motivations, and there's no doubt that he is capable of

there's no doubt that he is capable of such underhand and subtle tactics. But

such underhand and subtle tactics. But where is the evidence to support this?

where is the evidence to support this? Most people start with an intriguing

Most people start with an intriguing conversation between Tyrion and Yo in A

conversation between Tyrion and Yo in A Dance with Dragons. Tyrion wants to know

Dance with Dragons. Tyrion wants to know why the Golden Company, more on them in

why the Golden Company, more on them in a moment, would support putting a

a moment, would support putting a Targaryen on the throne, young Griff,

Targaryen on the throne, young Griff, when their entire history was to support

when their entire history was to support Blackfires against Targaryenss.

Blackfires against Targaryenss. Yo brushed away the objection as if it

Yo brushed away the objection as if it were a fly. Black or red, a dragon is

were a fly. Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon. When Meise the Monstrous

still a dragon. When Meise the Monstrous died upon the Stepstones, it was the end

died upon the Stepstones, it was the end of the male line of House Blackfire. The

of the male line of House Blackfire. The Cheesemonger smiled through his forked

Cheesemonger smiled through his forked beard.

beard. The clear implication is that the female

The clear implication is that the female line of Blackfires is still going

line of Blackfires is still going strong. In other words, that the last or

strong. In other words, that the last or one of the last Blackfire pretenders

one of the last Blackfire pretenders might not have had any sons, but they

might not have had any sons, but they did have a daughter, who in turn may

did have a daughter, who in turn may have had sons. Why would that matter if

have had sons. Why would that matter if it weren't important for the Golden

it weren't important for the Golden Company's support for young Griff? If

Company's support for young Griff? If this were generations ago, then perhaps

this were generations ago, then perhaps the genetics would have been so diluted

the genetics would have been so diluted as to not matter. But 40 years, which is

as to not matter. But 40 years, which is when the last Blackfire pretender was

when the last Blackfire pretender was killed, it isn't that long ago. It's in

killed, it isn't that long ago. It's in living memory. In fact, the person who

living memory. In fact, the person who killed that last Blackfire pretender was

killed that last Blackfire pretender was Barrist and Selme, who is still very

Barrist and Selme, who is still very much alive in the books. So, there is or

much alive in the books. So, there is or was probably a woman with Valyrian

was probably a woman with Valyrian heritage and looks, and an ancestral

heritage and looks, and an ancestral claim to the iron throne through House

claim to the iron throne through House Blackfire alive at around the time to

Blackfire alive at around the time to make her a contemporary of Varys and

make her a contemporary of Varys and Delio in the free cities. and if she had

Delio in the free cities. and if she had a son, they would indeed be about young

a son, they would indeed be about young Griff's age. Again, this makes it all

Griff's age. Again, this makes it all possible, but it isn't really evidence.

possible, but it isn't really evidence. Let's hold that thought for a moment,

Let's hold that thought for a moment, though, because although it's

though, because although it's interesting from a historical

interesting from a historical perspective, we know George R. Martin

perspective, we know George R. Martin always lays the groundwork for these

always lays the groundwork for these kinds of revelations. If young Griff

kinds of revelations. If young Griff really is a Blackfire in disguise, there

really is a Blackfire in disguise, there will be hints throughout the books. And

will be hints throughout the books. And there are. George R. Martin spends a lot

there are. George R. Martin spends a lot of time talking about the Blackfires,

of time talking about the Blackfires, way more than he needs to if they were

way more than he needs to if they were just a random offshoot of the

just a random offshoot of the Targaryenss who tried and failed to win

Targaryenss who tried and failed to win the throne. We're told of five different

the throne. We're told of five different invasion attempts, not just as dry

invasion attempts, not just as dry historical facts, but how they impacted

historical facts, but how they impacted on characters in the story that we know.

on characters in the story that we know. The rivalry between Damon Blackfire, the

The rivalry between Damon Blackfire, the first pretender, and Blood Raven. We see

first pretender, and Blood Raven. We see the second attempted rebellion in which

the second attempted rebellion in which a Blackfire pretender comes to Westeros

a Blackfire pretender comes to Westeros in disguise firsthand in the Duncan egg

in disguise firsthand in the Duncan egg story the mystery knight. The third

story the mystery knight. The third rebellion again saw Blood Raven directly

rebellion again saw Blood Raven directly involved. The fourth had Dunk leading

involved. The fourth had Dunk leading the charge. The fifth, the war of the

the charge. The fifth, the war of the nine penny kings was the one we've

nine penny kings was the one we've already mentioned with Barrist and

already mentioned with Barrist and Selme. Not only that, but Blackfire

Selme. Not only that, but Blackfire history leaves some pretty important

history leaves some pretty important threads just lying around. The Golden

threads just lying around. The Golden Company, for example, are name checked

Company, for example, are name checked dozens of times in the books, and we're

dozens of times in the books, and we're told repeatedly about how they aren't

told repeatedly about how they aren't just a cell sword company. They are the

just a cell sword company. They are the descendants of Blackfire supporters

descendants of Blackfire supporters exiled in Essos and waiting to return.

exiled in Essos and waiting to return. And the sword Blackfire is missing. The

And the sword Blackfire is missing. The great ancestral sword of Targaryen kings

great ancestral sword of Targaryen kings that was given to Damon Blackfire, last

that was given to Damon Blackfire, last seen in the possession of Aigor Rivers,

seen in the possession of Aigor Rivers, Damon Blackfire's biggest supporter and

Damon Blackfire's biggest supporter and the founder of the Golden Company. I'll

the founder of the Golden Company. I'll do a whole other video very soon about

do a whole other video very soon about where that sword is now. So, keep an eye

where that sword is now. So, keep an eye out for that. But these are not just

out for that. But these are not just small clues. George R. Martin is telling

small clues. George R. Martin is telling us repeatedly how important the

us repeatedly how important the Blackfires are to this story. So, the

Blackfires are to this story. So, the Blackfires are going to be important in

Blackfires are going to be important in the rest of the story. There's probably

the rest of the story. There's probably at least one Blackfire descendant out

at least one Blackfire descendant out there somewhere. We have a young man

there somewhere. We have a young man with Valyrian features now claiming to

with Valyrian features now claiming to be a Targaryen heir. and the Golden

be a Targaryen heir. and the Golden Company, that bunch of Blackfire

Company, that bunch of Blackfire loyalists are mysteriously supporting

loyalists are mysteriously supporting him, which is already painting quite a

him, which is already painting quite a clear picture. What we don't have yet is

clear picture. What we don't have yet is why Varys in YoIo might be behind such a

why Varys in YoIo might be behind such a plot. Well, you will find plenty of

plot. Well, you will find plenty of theories out there connecting Varys to

theories out there connecting Varys to the Blackfires. Perhaps he is secretly

the Blackfires. Perhaps he is secretly one himself, hence him keeping his head

one himself, hence him keeping his head shaved like an egg. Or perhaps he is

shaved like an egg. Or perhaps he is secretly not a unic, but a woman, and so

secretly not a unic, but a woman, and so on. But as fun as they all are, none

on. But as fun as they all are, none have huge amounts of supporting

have huge amounts of supporting evidence. For me, the link is instead

evidence. For me, the link is instead probably through Yo. Yo is a fascinating

probably through Yo. Yo is a fascinating character. Like Varys, who he became

character. Like Varys, who he became friends with at a young age, he worked

friends with at a young age, he worked his way up from the streets until he

his way up from the streets until he reached a position of power in Pentos.

reached a position of power in Pentos. He was once married, seemingly for

He was once married, seemingly for political gain, to the prince of

political gain, to the prince of Pentos's cousin, but then fell deeply in

Pentos's cousin, but then fell deeply in love with a woman called Sarah. Sarah

love with a woman called Sarah. Sarah was everything to him. The scandal of

was everything to him. The scandal of him and Sarah led to the palace of

him and Sarah led to the palace of Pentos being closed to Yo, but he didn't

Pentos being closed to Yo, but he didn't mind because he had found love. But then

mind because he had found love. But then Sarah died of the gray plague. This hit

Sarah died of the gray plague. This hit Yrio hard. He still carries around a

Yrio hard. He still carries around a picture of her in a locket and so he

picture of her in a locket and so he says, keeps her stone hands in his

says, keeps her stone hands in his bedroom. He swears solemn oaths in her

bedroom. He swears solemn oaths in her name. From the picture in the locket, we

name. From the picture in the locket, we learn that Sarah had bright blue eyes

learn that Sarah had bright blue eyes and silver blonde hair. classic Valyrian

and silver blonde hair. classic Valyrian looks just like young Griff has. And

looks just like young Griff has. And although we see Sarah written in the

although we see Sarah written in the text spelled as Sarah, S E R R A, that's

text spelled as Sarah, S E R R A, that's from Tyrion's perspective, what he

from Tyrion's perspective, what he thinks and hears, but yo has a thick

thinks and hears, but yo has a thick accent. Could it actually be Sarah or

accent. Could it actually be Sarah or Sierra? A very Targaryen name. It

Sierra? A very Targaryen name. It wouldn't be the first time that George

wouldn't be the first time that George R. Martin has made use of the POV

R. Martin has made use of the POV mechanism to hide clues in the text.

mechanism to hide clues in the text. Could this woman with Valyrian features

Could this woman with Valyrian features and a Valyrian sounding name be of

and a Valyrian sounding name be of Valyrian descent? Maybe even Blackfire

Valyrian descent? Maybe even Blackfire descent, which would explain how he and

descent, which would explain how he and apparently only he knows that the

apparently only he knows that the Blackfire line had continued through the

Blackfire line had continued through the female line. The hints then follow that

female line. The hints then follow that she and Yo had a child. George R. Martin

she and Yo had a child. George R. Martin makes a point of showing us that Yo had

makes a point of showing us that Yo had rather curiously kept a chest full of

rather curiously kept a chest full of clothes for a young boy, but Sarah

clothes for a young boy, but Sarah tragically died.

tragically died. Let's follow the logic. A plot was

Let's follow the logic. A plot was hatched between Vanis and Yio to get

hatched between Vanis and Yio to get Yio's son onto the Iron Throne to honor

Yio's son onto the Iron Throne to honor the beloved Sarah's family line and

the beloved Sarah's family line and perhaps even her explicit dying wishes.

perhaps even her explicit dying wishes. It would be a powerful contrast to

It would be a powerful contrast to Lyanna's dying wishes for Jon. Varys by

Lyanna's dying wishes for Jon. Varys by this point had moved over to King's

this point had moved over to King's Landing and was acting as spy master for

Landing and was acting as spy master for Eris II, then Robert Baratheon, neither

Eris II, then Robert Baratheon, neither of whom were exactly model rulers. Young

of whom were exactly model rulers. Young Griff would be tutored and trained to be

Griff would be tutored and trained to be the perfect king. Varys would then have

the perfect king. Varys would then have a ruler who cared for the realm, and Yo

a ruler who cared for the realm, and Yo would have his and Sarah's son on the

would have his and Sarah's son on the throne. Yo himself admitted that his

throne. Yo himself admitted that his motivation in all this was not money or

motivation in all this was not money or power, but a debt of affection. Everyone

power, but a debt of affection. Everyone would get what they wanted. In order to

would get what they wanted. In order to get the support they needed, they

get the support they needed, they couldn't just admit that young Griff was

couldn't just admit that young Griff was a Blackfire, though. The Blackfires had

a Blackfire, though. The Blackfires had tried five times to claim the throne. It

tried five times to claim the throne. It had never worked. So instead, he would

had never worked. So instead, he would claim to be Aegon V 6th, the true

claim to be Aegon V 6th, the true Targaryen heir. And when the time was

Targaryen heir. And when the time was right, Varys would eventually start

right, Varys would eventually start spreading the rumor that he had saved

spreading the rumor that he had saved the babe from Gregor Clelegane and so

the babe from Gregor Clelegane and so on. A Blackfire with a black dragon

on. A Blackfire with a black dragon sigil would be pretending to be a

sigil would be pretending to be a Targaryen with their red dragon sigil.

Targaryen with their red dragon sigil. As Yo says pointedly to Tyrion, "Black

As Yo says pointedly to Tyrion, "Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon."

or red, a dragon is still a dragon." And this is where the Golden Company

And this is where the Golden Company comes in. The Golden Company, remember,

comes in. The Golden Company, remember, are effectively the Blackfire's standing

are effectively the Blackfire's standing army, established by Aigor Rivers and

army, established by Aigor Rivers and used to spearhead most of the Blackfire

used to spearhead most of the Blackfire rebellions. Of course, they would

rebellions. Of course, they would support a secret Blackfire invasion. But

support a secret Blackfire invasion. But just as importantly, they have a

just as importantly, they have a reputation for never breaking a

reputation for never breaking a contract. A perfect reputation until

contract. A perfect reputation until they break one to come and support this

they break one to come and support this cause. When Tyrion asks why on earth

cause. When Tyrion asks why on earth they would ruin their reputation, Yio

they would ruin their reputation, Yio simply says that some contracts are

simply says that some contracts are written in ink and some in blood. In

written in ink and some in blood. In other words, they are honoring their

other words, they are honoring their ancestral blood vow to support the

ancestral blood vow to support the Blackfires. There is no other reason for

Blackfires. There is no other reason for them to do it. And there are more hints

them to do it. And there are more hints elsewhere that Aegon may be a false

elsewhere that Aegon may be a false dragon. One of the visions Daenerys has

dragon. One of the visions Daenerys has in the House of the Undying is of a

in the House of the Undying is of a cloth dragon swaying on poles cheered by

cloth dragon swaying on poles cheered by a crowd, which seems to be one of the

a crowd, which seems to be one of the lies she must slay. And Quaith also

lies she must slay. And Quaith also warns her to beware the mummer's dragon.

warns her to beware the mummer's dragon. The imagery both times seems to be

The imagery both times seems to be clear. This is a pretend dragon, not a

clear. This is a pretend dragon, not a real Targaryen, and it is Dy's role

real Targaryen, and it is Dy's role somehow to expose it. It all adds up,

somehow to expose it. It all adds up, explaining everything from Yo and

explaining everything from Yo and Varys's motivations, the Golden

Varys's motivations, the Golden Company's actions, and even some of

Company's actions, and even some of Dany<unk>y's visions to why George R.

Dany<unk>y's visions to why George R. Martin tells us so much about the

Martin tells us so much about the Blackfires in the main story. There is

Blackfires in the main story. There is no smoking gun here, no 100% conclusive

no smoking gun here, no 100% conclusive bit of evidence that this is true, but

bit of evidence that this is true, but we shouldn't expect one yet because

we shouldn't expect one yet because George R. Martin is obviously wanting to

George R. Martin is obviously wanting to do a big reveal later in the story. And

do a big reveal later in the story. And as for Varys having no reason to tell

as for Varys having no reason to tell the dying Kevin Lannister a lie, I

the dying Kevin Lannister a lie, I actually don't think there's a

actually don't think there's a contradiction here. Young Griff has

contradiction here. Young Griff has started his invasion by this point. So

started his invasion by this point. So Varys actually wants the rumor that baby

Varys actually wants the rumor that baby Aegon was safe from death all those

Aegon was safe from death all those years ago to start spreading. And if

years ago to start spreading. And if Kevin is mortally wounded, there are

Kevin is mortally wounded, there are others there, his little birds, the

others there, his little birds, the children who work for him. And Varys is

children who work for him. And Varys is too clever to trust anyone 100%, even

too clever to trust anyone 100%, even them. And he certainly doesn't owe Kevin

them. And he certainly doesn't owe Kevin Lannister honesty when he's about to

Lannister honesty when he's about to kill him. Him asserting that young Griff

kill him. Him asserting that young Griff really is Aegon is exactly what we would

really is Aegon is exactly what we would expect. Finally, let's look at what this

expect. Finally, let's look at what this all means for the plot. Young Griff

all means for the plot. Young Griff saying he is Aegon V 6th immediately

saying he is Aegon V 6th immediately sets up a good old-fashioned Targaryen

sets up a good old-fashioned Targaryen succession crisis. He certainly thinks

succession crisis. He certainly thinks that he is ahead of Daenerys in the line

that he is ahead of Daenerys in the line of succession and would think the same

of succession and would think the same about Jon if he ever learned of him. But

about Jon if he ever learned of him. But it's hard to imagine Daenerys standing

it's hard to imagine Daenerys standing meekly aside for him. And your guess is

meekly aside for him. And your guess is as good as mine as to how she would

as good as mine as to how she would react to a marriage proposal. Of course,

react to a marriage proposal. Of course, Daenerys sweeping in to claim her crown

Daenerys sweeping in to claim her crown unopposed just isn't how Targaryen

unopposed just isn't how Targaryen succession has ever worked. Fire and

succession has ever worked. Fire and blood shows time and again how there is

blood shows time and again how there is a Targaryen succession crisis in almost

a Targaryen succession crisis in almost every generation. This generation won't

every generation. This generation won't be any different. And in this context,

be any different. And in this context, it perhaps ultimately doesn't matter for

it perhaps ultimately doesn't matter for the plot whether young griff really is

the plot whether young griff really is Aon the 6th or is a blackfire or just

Aon the 6th or is a blackfire or just some random silverhead youth picked out

some random silverhead youth picked out by Varys and Yrio. He believes he is and

by Varys and Yrio. He believes he is and people around him believe he is. And his

people around him believe he is. And his list of allies is growing swiftly. As

list of allies is growing swiftly. As Varys comments elsewhere, power resides

Varys comments elsewhere, power resides where men believe it resides, no more

where men believe it resides, no more and no less.

and no less. What is Varys and Yo's master plan? It

What is Varys and Yo's master plan? It seems to change a lot, but what is the

seems to change a lot, but what is the plan? This is the latest in a loose sort

plan? This is the latest in a loose sort of series looking at Varys, Yo, Young

of series looking at Varys, Yo, Young Griff, and all of that. You don't need

Griff, and all of that. You don't need to have watched any of the others before

to have watched any of the others before you watch this video, but I will build

you watch this video, but I will build on what I've said in them a few times.

on what I've said in them a few times. So, if you want to, there's a link to

So, if you want to, there's a link to the playlist down in the description.

the playlist down in the description. If you are a bit confused by Varys and

If you are a bit confused by Varys and Yo's master plan in A Song of Ice and

Yo's master plan in A Song of Ice and Fire, then do not worry. you are not

Fire, then do not worry. you are not alone. And if it feels like it changes

alone. And if it feels like it changes quite a lot, then that's because it does

quite a lot, then that's because it does change quite a lot. What we'll do in

change quite a lot. What we'll do in this video is try to break down those

this video is try to break down those changes and why so we know what the plan

changes and why so we know what the plan is now. But as an overview, here is

is now. But as an overview, here is Tristan Rivers, a senior member of the

Tristan Rivers, a senior member of the Golden Company, sharing his thoughts

Golden Company, sharing his thoughts about the changeability of Yo's plans.

about the changeability of Yo's plans. Which plan? The fat man's plan? The one

Which plan? The fat man's plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns.

that changes every time the moon turns. First, Viseris Targaryen was to join us

First, Viseris Targaryen was to join us with 50,000 Dothraki screamers at his

with 50,000 Dothraki screamers at his back. Then, the beggar king was dead,

back. Then, the beggar king was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable

and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to

young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new hatched dragons.

Pentos with three new hatched dragons. Instead, the girl turns up on Slaver's

Instead, the girl turns up on Slaver's Bay and leaves a string of burning

Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man

cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis.

decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now, that plan is in ruins as well. I

Now, that plan is in ruins as well. I have had enough of IO's plans. Robert

have had enough of IO's plans. Robert Baratheon won the Iron Throne without

Baratheon won the Iron Throne without the benefit of dragons. We can do the

the benefit of dragons. We can do the same. His frustration is palpable, but

same. His frustration is palpable, but he does actually give a pretty accurate

he does actually give a pretty accurate summary of how the plan evolves over

summary of how the plan evolves over time. So, let's start at the beginning

time. So, let's start at the beginning because despite all the changes, the

because despite all the changes, the objective seems to stay the same. To get

objective seems to stay the same. To get young Griff, also known as Aegon the 6th

young Griff, also known as Aegon the 6th or Feon onto the Iron Throne via an

or Feon onto the Iron Throne via an invasion from Essos, headed up by the

invasion from Essos, headed up by the Golden Company. This is the case

Golden Company. This is the case regardless of whether you believe that

regardless of whether you believe that young Griff is actually a Blackfire,

young Griff is actually a Blackfire, Rhaegar's son, Aegon, or a complete

Rhaegar's son, Aegon, or a complete nobody trained up by Yo. Personally, I

nobody trained up by Yo. Personally, I like to think that this is Yo's promise

like to think that this is Yo's promise to his dying wife that he loved so much

to his dying wife that he loved so much that he would make their son a Blackfire

that he would make their son a Blackfire through the female line, king of the

through the female line, king of the seven kingdoms. give or take a couple of

seven kingdoms. give or take a couple of years, this son was born at the same

years, this son was born at the same time as Aegon, had the classic Valyrian

time as Aegon, had the classic Valyrian looks, and Varys could come up with a

looks, and Varys could come up with a convincing explanation for how he was

convincing explanation for how he was rescued from the sack of King's Landing.

rescued from the sack of King's Landing. Very broadly, the plan, which probably

Very broadly, the plan, which probably emerged over a few years, was for Yo to

emerged over a few years, was for Yo to take control of raising young Griff and

take control of raising young Griff and getting an invading army ready to go

getting an invading army ready to go when he was old enough. And on the other

when he was old enough. And on the other side of the narrow sea, Varys's job was

side of the narrow sea, Varys's job was to prepare the seven kingdoms for

to prepare the seven kingdoms for invasion, so it was vulnerable at the

invasion, so it was vulnerable at the right time. This clearly would require

right time. This clearly would require some coordination, and that is exactly

some coordination, and that is exactly what we see happening the first time we

what we see happening the first time we see the two of them together through

see the two of them together through Arya's eyes deep beneath the Red Keep.

Arya's eyes deep beneath the Red Keep. Varys tells Yo that war is brewing. And

Varys tells Yo that war is brewing. And Yo responds, "Too soon. Too soon. What

Yo responds, "Too soon. Too soon. What good is war now? We are not ready.

good is war now? We are not ready. Delay. We must have time. The princess

Delay. We must have time. The princess is with child. The Carl will not bestow

is with child. The Carl will not bestow himself until his son is born. You know

himself until his son is born. You know how they are, these savages.

how they are, these savages. What would you have me do? asked the

What would you have me do? asked the torchbearer. A stout man and a leather

torchbearer. A stout man and a leather half cape. It seemed to Arya there was

half cape. It seemed to Arya there was something oddly familiar about him. If

something oddly familiar about him. If one hand can die, why not a second?

one hand can die, why not a second? replied the man with the accent and the

replied the man with the accent and the forked yellow beard. You have danced the

forked yellow beard. You have danced the dance before, my friend.

dance before, my friend. Four is not now, and this hand is not

Four is not now, and this hand is not the other. Delay, you say. Make haste, I

the other. Delay, you say. Make haste, I reply. Even the finest of jugglers

reply. Even the finest of jugglers cannot keep a 100 balls in the air

cannot keep a 100 balls in the air forever. You are more than a juggler,

forever. You are more than a juggler, old friend. You are a true sorcerer. All

old friend. You are a true sorcerer. All I ask is that you work your magic a

I ask is that you work your magic a while longer.

while longer. So, the plan originally seems to involve

So, the plan originally seems to involve Viceris and the Dothraki invading

Viceris and the Dothraki invading Westeros at a time when the Seven

Westeros at a time when the Seven Kingdoms are weak. The argument about

Kingdoms are weak. The argument about timing here is because the seven

timing here is because the seven kingdoms seems a matter of days or weeks

kingdoms seems a matter of days or weeks from civil war, but Cal Drogo seems a

from civil war, but Cal Drogo seems a very long way from being willing to sail

very long way from being willing to sail to Westeros. In theory, according to

to Westeros. In theory, according to Tristan Rivers, the Dothraki would have

Tristan Rivers, the Dothraki would have joined up with the Golden Company and

joined up with the Golden Company and invaded. Dawn would probably also have

invaded. Dawn would probably also have been involved. They hated the

been involved. They hated the Lannisters. And maybe even Varys and

Lannisters. And maybe even Varys and Yo's extensive spy network had uncovered

Yo's extensive spy network had uncovered the marriage pact between Viseris and

the marriage pact between Viseris and Arianne, formerly tying the Martell into

Arianne, formerly tying the Martell into the plot, whether they knew it or not.

the plot, whether they knew it or not. At which point you may wonder what

At which point you may wonder what Viseris has got to do with all of this?

Viseris has got to do with all of this? If they wanted to put Young Griff on the

If they wanted to put Young Griff on the throne, why bother with Viseris at all?

throne, why bother with Viseris at all? Well, keeping Young Griff a secret for

Well, keeping Young Griff a secret for as long as possible certainly seems to

as long as possible certainly seems to have been a deliberate strategy because

have been a deliberate strategy because it eliminated the possibility of

it eliminated the possibility of assassination attempts, a very real

assassination attempts, a very real threat. and because they genuinely seem

threat. and because they genuinely seem to have wanted him to be brought up

to have wanted him to be brought up outside of a life of privilege. As Varys

outside of a life of privilege. As Varys says, Aegon has been shaped for rule

says, Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has lived

since before he could walk. He has lived with fisher folk, worked with his hands,

with fisher folk, worked with his hands, swam in rivers and mended nets, and

swam in rivers and mended nets, and learned to wash his own clothes at need.

learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a

He can fish and cook and bind up a wound. He knows what it is like to be

wound. He knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid.

hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is

Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is

his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his

his duty, that a king must put his people first and live and rule for them.

people first and live and rule for them. A lordable aim. And if Tyrion is right

A lordable aim. And if Tyrion is right to judge him about 15 or 16 years old

to judge him about 15 or 16 years old when he meets him, that would make him

when he meets him, that would make him just 13 or 14 at the beginning of the

just 13 or 14 at the beginning of the story. Perhaps still a bit too young to

story. Perhaps still a bit too young to lead, even by Westerosi standards.

lead, even by Westerosi standards. Whatever the reasons, Yio and Varys

Whatever the reasons, Yio and Varys clearly wanted Viceris to head up the

clearly wanted Viceris to head up the invasion, even though Yrio at least knew

invasion, even though Yrio at least knew what he was like. After that, well, we

what he was like. After that, well, we don't know the details of this bit of

don't know the details of this bit of the plan as it never actually happened.

the plan as it never actually happened. But at some point, they would clearly

But at some point, they would clearly have brought young Griff to the four and

have brought young Griff to the four and announced him as Aegon V 6th, who as the

announced him as Aegon V 6th, who as the eldest son of the eldest son of the mad

eldest son of the eldest son of the mad king, could be argued to be ahead of the

king, could be argued to be ahead of the second son, Viseris, in the line of

second son, Viseris, in the line of succession. Viseris would surely object,

succession. Viseris would surely object, but who would you rally behind? In

but who would you rally behind? In short, Viseris was necessary in the

short, Viseris was necessary in the short term, but dispensable in the

short term, but dispensable in the longer term. An attitude it seems likely

longer term. An attitude it seems likely they held towards Dany at the start as

they held towards Dany at the start as well. Her use to start with was to draw

well. Her use to start with was to draw in Carl Drogo, but that's about it. When

in Carl Drogo, but that's about it. When Drogo seems to have indefinitely

Drogo seems to have indefinitely suspended any plans to attack Westeros,

suspended any plans to attack Westeros, that's when Varys informed King Robert

that's when Varys informed King Robert that Dany was pregnant, leading to the

that Dany was pregnant, leading to the assassination attempt on her and Cal

assassination attempt on her and Cal Drogo recommitting once more to the

Drogo recommitting once more to the invasion. You'll notice that Varys

invasion. You'll notice that Varys worked on both sides of that.

worked on both sides of that. Incidentally, he hires the assassin and

Incidentally, he hires the assassin and tips off Sajora to foil the attempt. It

tips off Sajora to foil the attempt. It therefore seems likely that Varys was

therefore seems likely that Varys was happy with either ending, Dany living or

happy with either ending, Dany living or dying, as long as Drogo was anchored

dying, as long as Drogo was anchored into action. So, at that point, things

into action. So, at that point, things must have seemed to be back on track.

must have seemed to be back on track. The Golden Company was alerted to be

The Golden Company was alerted to be ready, and the Seven Kingdoms was

ready, and the Seven Kingdoms was completely unaware, tearing itself apart

completely unaware, tearing itself apart as it was in a civil war. But then,

as it was in a civil war. But then, things went wrong. First, Viseris died.

things went wrong. First, Viseris died. Then, Cal Drogo did. So, that plan had

Then, Cal Drogo did. So, that plan had to be put aside. Instead, something

to be put aside. Instead, something unexpected then happens. News emerges

unexpected then happens. News emerges that Dany has hatched three dragons.

that Dany has hatched three dragons. Perhaps she wasn't so useless after all.

Perhaps she wasn't so useless after all. They could forget the Dothraki. They now

They could forget the Dothraki. They now had dragons, provided they could get

had dragons, provided they could get Dany on side. Of course, young Griff was

Dany on side. Of course, young Griff was now a year older, so he could head up

now a year older, so he could head up the invasion, and they could probably

the invasion, and they could probably just marry Dany off to him. You know how

just marry Dany off to him. You know how Targaryenss are. Their man still gets on

Targaryenss are. Their man still gets on the Iron Throne. So, Yo dispatches two

the Iron Throne. So, Yo dispatches two of his finest, Strong Belellas and Sir

of his finest, Strong Belellas and Sir Barristan, to sail to K with three ships

Barristan, to sail to K with three ships and fetch her back to Pentos. At which

and fetch her back to Pentos. At which point, let's switch back over to King's

point, let's switch back over to King's Landing because something else Varys has

Landing because something else Varys has been doing there is trying to remove the

been doing there is trying to remove the competent leadership of the city one by

competent leadership of the city one by one. He plots to get Ned Stark sent to

one. He plots to get Ned Stark sent to the wall, though is blindsided by him

the wall, though is blindsided by him being killed. Subtly pushes Joffrey to

being killed. Subtly pushes Joffrey to dismiss Sir Barristan, knowing he would

dismiss Sir Barristan, knowing he would likely next head to Yo or Danny. Works

likely next head to Yo or Danny. Works with Jaime to free Tyrion from the black

with Jaime to free Tyrion from the black cells and sends him to Yrio. and also if

cells and sends him to Yrio. and also if you look back at it gives rather precise

you look back at it gives rather precise instructions to Tyrion as to how he

instructions to Tyrion as to how he might find his father's chambers through

might find his father's chambers through the secret tunnels 230 rungs up the

the secret tunnels 230 rungs up the tunnel to the left for 60 ft the third

tunnel to the left for 60 ft the third room on the left he didn't make Tyrion

room on the left he didn't make Tyrion kill his father but he certainly gave

kill his father but he certainly gave him the opportunity

him the opportunity then of course there is the death of

then of course there is the death of Kevin Lannister who he even apologizes

Kevin Lannister who he even apologizes to admitting that it was just because he

to admitting that it was just because he was doing too good a job managing the

was doing too good a job managing the city anyway Daenerys ends up ignoring

city anyway Daenerys ends up ignoring ing Yo's offer via Sabaron to go to

ing Yo's offer via Sabaron to go to Pentos and instead sells the ships he

Pentos and instead sells the ships he provided to pay for the unsullied,

provided to pay for the unsullied, proceeding to head north along the coast

proceeding to head north along the coast of Slavers Bay, destroying or setting

of Slavers Bay, destroying or setting free cities as she goes, depending on

free cities as she goes, depending on your perspective. Yo then confidently

your perspective. Yo then confidently assumes that she must be about to

assumes that she must be about to continue that march westwards along the

continue that march westwards along the demon road towards Volantis. So

demon road towards Volantis. So instructs the Golden Company to wait for

instructs the Golden Company to wait for her there, not Pentos, and he dispatches

her there, not Pentos, and he dispatches young Griff to head down the ruin to

young Griff to head down the ruin to meet her there too, along with Tyrion,

meet her there too, along with Tyrion, the latest new ally Varys has smuggled

the latest new ally Varys has smuggled out of King's Landing, though Dany foils

out of King's Landing, though Dany foils that plan by not heading west, but

that plan by not heading west, but instead trying to govern Meen wisely and

instead trying to govern Meen wisely and eventually disappears on Dragon Back

eventually disappears on Dragon Back into the Dothraki Sea. So that plan also

into the Dothraki Sea. So that plan also has to change. And by the time young

has to change. And by the time young Griff arrives to meet up with the Golden

Griff arrives to meet up with the Golden Company, they and he are well and truly

Company, they and he are well and truly frustrated by all these changes of plan.

frustrated by all these changes of plan. They're on to plan four by this point.

They're on to plan four by this point. And they haven't even set sail for

And they haven't even set sail for Westeros. So young Griff decides that

Westeros. So young Griff decides that they should just do it. Forget about the

they should just do it. Forget about the Dothraki and dragons and Daenerys. They

Dothraki and dragons and Daenerys. They should strike while the iron is hot.

should strike while the iron is hot. take a few strategic strongholds in the

take a few strategic strongholds in the Stormlands before the Lannisters even

Stormlands before the Lannisters even know they are under attack and gather

know they are under attack and gather support as they go along. They are

support as they go along. They are pretty confident that Dawn will fall

pretty confident that Dawn will fall into line. John Conington has contacts

into line. John Conington has contacts in the Stormlands and they even have

in the Stormlands and they even have some mysterious friends in the reach

some mysterious friends in the reach they think they can rely on. And the

they think they can rely on. And the Seven Kingdoms is on its knees after 18

Seven Kingdoms is on its knees after 18 months or so of remorseless war. Stannis

months or so of remorseless war. Stannis has taken much of the Stormlands army

has taken much of the Stormlands army north to the wall. So that is

north to the wall. So that is vulnerable. The Lannisters are focused

vulnerable. The Lannisters are focused on bringing the Riverlands under their

on bringing the Riverlands under their control. And Varys has ensured that the

control. And Varys has ensured that the Lannisters and Tyrells are the weakest

Lannisters and Tyrells are the weakest of allies in King's Landing. A strategy

of allies in King's Landing. A strategy it has to be said that Tyrion urged

it has to be said that Tyrion urged young Griff to adopt when they were on

young Griff to adopt when they were on board the Shy Maid, telling him not to

board the Shy Maid, telling him not to wait for Daenerys in Volantis, but

wait for Daenerys in Volantis, but instead go on the offensive. Land and

instead go on the offensive. Land and raise your banners, and men will flock

raise your banners, and men will flock to your cause, lords, great and small,

to your cause, lords, great and small, and small folk, too. But do not wait too

and small folk, too. But do not wait too long, my prince. The moment will not

long, my prince. The moment will not last. The tide that lifts you now will

last. The tide that lifts you now will soon recede. Be certain you reach

soon recede. Be certain you reach Westeros before my sister falls and

Westeros before my sister falls and someone more competent takes her place.

someone more competent takes her place. All you need to do is raise your

All you need to do is raise your banners, rally your supporters, and hold

banners, rally your supporters, and hold until Daenerys arrives to join her

until Daenerys arrives to join her strength to yours.

strength to yours. So, that seems to be the plan now. And

So, that seems to be the plan now. And so far, it seems to be working. We

so far, it seems to be working. We haven't seen much of the invasion

haven't seen much of the invasion firsthand, but they certainly seem to

firsthand, but they certainly seem to have captured a lot of territory in the

have captured a lot of territory in the Stormlands and maybe even Storm's End,

Stormlands and maybe even Storm's End, as hinted at in one of the pre-released

as hinted at in one of the pre-released chapters of the Winds of Winter.

chapters of the Winds of Winter. Incidentally, when Tyrion later hears

Incidentally, when Tyrion later hears that they are going with this plan, he

that they are going with this plan, he appears surprised. It's quite a deep

appears surprised. It's quite a deep cut, but when giving the advice, he was

cut, but when giving the advice, he was playing a game of Cybass against Young

playing a game of Cybass against Young Griff, which ended when Young Griff went

Griff, which ended when Young Griff went on the offensive, but neglected to bring

on the offensive, but neglected to bring his dragon to the center of the action.

his dragon to the center of the action. a big mistake which cost him the game.

a big mistake which cost him the game. Foreshadowing probably. So that is how

Foreshadowing probably. So that is how Varys and Yo's plan has evolved over the

Varys and Yo's plan has evolved over the course of the story. And what is most

course of the story. And what is most noticeable is that the plan they finally

noticeable is that the plan they finally ended up with is not what they wanted.

ended up with is not what they wanted. It's what young Griff and the Golden

It's what young Griff and the Golden Company agreed after growing frustrated

Company agreed after growing frustrated with all the changes. Still, Varys and

with all the changes. Still, Varys and Delio are used to their plans going

Delio are used to their plans going slightly arry, and we should expect them

slightly arry, and we should expect them to roll with the punches. Certainly, we

to roll with the punches. Certainly, we see Varys respond to hearing that the

see Varys respond to hearing that the invasion is going ahead anyway by

invasion is going ahead anyway by eliminating Kevin and Pycel and framing

eliminating Kevin and Pycel and framing the Tyrells, which will almost certainly

the Tyrells, which will almost certainly lead to Cersei doing something rash.

lead to Cersei doing something rash. Varys and Yrio have been planning this

Varys and Yrio have been planning this for years, and theirs is a flexible and

for years, and theirs is a flexible and complex plan. After vanishing at the end

complex plan. After vanishing at the end of a storm of swords, Varys reappears in

of a storm of swords, Varys reappears in the epilogue of A Dance with Dragons to

the epilogue of A Dance with Dragons to assassinate Sir Kevin Lannister.

assassinate Sir Kevin Lannister. Why? What does Varys expect to gain from

Why? What does Varys expect to gain from the murder? In the epilogue to A Dance

the murder? In the epilogue to A Dance with Dragons, Kevin Lannister is having

with Dragons, Kevin Lannister is having dinner with Cersei and Tommen when a

dinner with Cersei and Tommen when a message arrives from the Grand Maester.

message arrives from the Grand Maester. Kevin excuses himself and is escorted

Kevin excuses himself and is escorted into Pycel's chamber by a silent child,

into Pycel's chamber by a silent child, who we can only assume is one of Varys's

who we can only assume is one of Varys's little birds. Moments after he enters

little birds. Moments after he enters the room, Varys shoots him with a

the room, Varys shoots him with a crossbow. The similarity to his brother

crossbow. The similarity to his brother Tywin's murder comes to mind immediately

Tywin's murder comes to mind immediately for him and he blurts out the name

for him and he blurts out the name Tyrion. But instead, Varys emerges from

Tyrion. But instead, Varys emerges from the shadows, clutching the murder

the shadows, clutching the murder weapon. And in true Varys style, he

weapon. And in true Varys style, he apologizes, telling Kevin it's not

apologizes, telling Kevin it's not personal. He says, "Sir Kevin, forgive

personal. He says, "Sir Kevin, forgive me if you can. I bear you no ill will.

me if you can. I bear you no ill will. This was not done from malice. It was

This was not done from malice. It was for the realm, for the children. This

for the realm, for the children. This pains me, my lord. You do not deserve to

pains me, my lord. You do not deserve to die alone on such a cold, dark night.

die alone on such a cold, dark night. There are many like you, good men in

There are many like you, good men in service to bad causes. But you are

service to bad causes. But you are threatening to undo all the queen's good

threatening to undo all the queen's good work, to reconcile High Garden and

work, to reconcile High Garden and Castly Rock, bind the faith to your

Castly Rock, bind the faith to your little king, unite the seven kingdoms

little king, unite the seven kingdoms under Tommen's rule. So,

under Tommen's rule. So, so Varys kills him. Most of Kevin's

so Varys kills him. Most of Kevin's epilog chapter earlier is spent at

epilog chapter earlier is spent at council. A number of issues are

council. A number of issues are discussed by hand of the king Ma Tyrell,

discussed by hand of the king Ma Tyrell, master of laws Randall Tarly, Grand

master of laws Randall Tarly, Grand Maester Pycel, and Kevin Lannister

Maester Pycel, and Kevin Lannister himself serving as regent. The most

himself serving as regent. The most prominent topic is the invasion of the

prominent topic is the invasion of the Stormlands by a young man claiming to be

Stormlands by a young man claiming to be Aegon, son of Rhaegar Targaryen at the

Aegon, son of Rhaegar Targaryen at the head of the famously dangerous Golden

head of the famously dangerous Golden Company alongside John Conington. Though

Company alongside John Conington. Though they don't agree on much, the small

they don't agree on much, the small council does agree that this threat

council does agree that this threat requires an immediate military response

requires an immediate military response lest the danger grow. Aegon could win

lest the danger grow. Aegon could win castles, allies, reputation. Time to

castles, allies, reputation. Time to spread word of his arrival and his

spread word of his arrival and his identity. Best to stop him as soon as

identity. Best to stop him as soon as possible. Mace decrees that he will

possible. Mace decrees that he will march south with his army as soon as his

march south with his army as soon as his daughter Marjgery's trial is complete.

daughter Marjgery's trial is complete. Waiting for the trial to be over isn't

Waiting for the trial to be over isn't exactly immediate, however. Not to

exactly immediate, however. Not to mention the possibility that Marjgerie

mention the possibility that Marjgerie could lose. Would Mace still march his

could lose. Would Mace still march his army south in that case? Probably not.

army south in that case? Probably not. Thus, the threat of violence hangs over

Thus, the threat of violence hangs over the scene and the capital, even without

the scene and the capital, even without considering Aegon in the south. Some

considering Aegon in the south. Some members of the small council are

members of the small council are concerned that they themselves might be

concerned that they themselves might be targets. For example, Pycel expresses

targets. For example, Pycel expresses concern to Kevin that Ma Tyrell mislikes

concern to Kevin that Ma Tyrell mislikes him, so he needs guards.

him, so he needs guards. Kevin is diplomatic but inwardly scoffs

Kevin is diplomatic but inwardly scoffs at the notion that Mace would have Pycel

at the notion that Mace would have Pycel killed. While many on the council are

killed. While many on the council are more concerned with their own lives or

more concerned with their own lives or families, Kevin is more concerned about

families, Kevin is more concerned about other matters, namely the aforementioned

other matters, namely the aforementioned invasion by Aegon. Of course, Kevin will

invasion by Aegon. Of course, Kevin will find Pycel dead only a few pages later.

find Pycel dead only a few pages later. It turns out they both had a piece of

It turns out they both had a piece of the truth, but neither of them had the

the truth, but neither of them had the hole. Simply put, Pycel was not terribly

hole. Simply put, Pycel was not terribly worried about the danger in the

worried about the danger in the Stormlands, but very concerned about the

Stormlands, but very concerned about the danger in house. Kevin was more

danger in house. Kevin was more concerned about the danger in the

concerned about the danger in the Stormlands while not terribly worried

Stormlands while not terribly worried about the danger in house. It turns out

about the danger in house. It turns out that the danger in the Stormlands and

that the danger in the Stormlands and the danger in house are one and the

the danger in house are one and the same. Varys is back after nearly two

same. Varys is back after nearly two full books missing, and he's with Aegon.

full books missing, and he's with Aegon. He's also no longer the Varys of the

He's also no longer the Varys of the past 20 years. He's no longer pretending

past 20 years. He's no longer pretending to be squeamish or neutral. No longer

to be squeamish or neutral. No longer trying to keep the realm at peace while

trying to keep the realm at peace while his plans and his young king mature. The

his plans and his young king mature. The time is nigh. Instead of order, Varys

time is nigh. Instead of order, Varys wants chaos so Aegon can save the realm

wants chaos so Aegon can save the realm to win the throne. As Stannis himself

to win the throne. As Stannis himself put it. Stannis was of course referring

put it. Stannis was of course referring to himself saving the realm to win the

to himself saving the realm to win the throne at the time. But it's just as

throne at the time. But it's just as true for any other claimment. The realm

true for any other claimment. The realm wants peace and stability most of all

wants peace and stability most of all and will favor a king who brings them

and will favor a king who brings them that. That is the core reason for the

that. That is the core reason for the murder of Kevin, creating chaos to help

murder of Kevin, creating chaos to help Aegon win the throne. But let's get more

Aegon win the throne. But let's get more specific. Varys tells Kevin as he's

specific. Varys tells Kevin as he's dying who will take the blame for his

dying who will take the blame for his murder. We read, "Your niece will think

murder. We read, "Your niece will think the Tyrells had you murdered with the

the Tyrells had you murdered with the connance of the imp. The Tyrells will

connance of the imp. The Tyrells will suspect her. Someone somewhere will find

suspect her. Someone somewhere will find a way to blame the Dornishman. Doubt,

a way to blame the Dornishman. Doubt, division, and mistrust will eat the very

division, and mistrust will eat the very ground beneath your boy king while Aegon

ground beneath your boy king while Aegon raises his banner above Storm's End, and

raises his banner above Storm's End, and the lords of the realm gather around

the lords of the realm gather around him. This is the heart of the matter,

him. This is the heart of the matter, driving a wedge between Lannister and

driving a wedge between Lannister and Tyrell, the houses who are the biggest

Tyrell, the houses who are the biggest obstacles to Aegon's claim. For Varys's

obstacles to Aegon's claim. For Varys's young king to win the throne, it's

young king to win the throne, it's better if the Lannisters and Tyrells are

better if the Lannisters and Tyrells are not on good terms. Better still if they

not on good terms. Better still if they turn on one another and become enemies.

turn on one another and become enemies. Even better than that if the Tyrells are

Even better than that if the Tyrells are an enemy of the Lannisters and an ally

an enemy of the Lannisters and an ally of Aegon. Perhaps Marjgerie could marry

of Aegon. Perhaps Marjgerie could marry Aegon instead of Tommen. It's not clear

Aegon instead of Tommen. It's not clear what exactly Varys has in mind for the

what exactly Varys has in mind for the Tyrells. It might be that he's offered a

Tyrells. It might be that he's offered a different house in the Reach the seat of

different house in the Reach the seat of High Garden in exchange for their

High Garden in exchange for their support. We can only be certain that

support. We can only be certain that Varys wants to break the Lannister

Varys wants to break the Lannister Tyrell alliance.

Tyrell alliance. Like Tywin before him, Kevin was doing a

Like Tywin before him, Kevin was doing a good job at uniting Lannister and

good job at uniting Lannister and Tyrell, at forging them into a unit that

Tyrell, at forging them into a unit that might hold the throne. So, he had to

might hold the throne. So, he had to die. And by killing him with a crossbow,

die. And by killing him with a crossbow, Varys is attempting to accomplish the

Varys is attempting to accomplish the opposite, to pit the two allied great

opposite, to pit the two allied great houses against each other. Kevin was

houses against each other. Kevin was also keeping Cersei in check and was

also keeping Cersei in check and was preparing to send her back to cast Lero.

preparing to send her back to cast Lero. Kevin's death put Cersei back in charge

Kevin's death put Cersei back in charge as regent for Tommen. It's another

as regent for Tommen. It's another important part of the plan. This

important part of the plan. This effectively replaces someone competent

effectively replaces someone competent with someone who will play right into

with someone who will play right into Varys's hands. It is no secret that

Varys's hands. It is no secret that Cersei hates the Tyrells. Her lies are

Cersei hates the Tyrells. Her lies are the entire reason Marjgerie is on trial

the entire reason Marjgerie is on trial in the first place, and we can be sure

in the first place, and we can be sure she will continue to find ways to

she will continue to find ways to manipulate those proceedings. Varys

manipulate those proceedings. Varys knows this and knows that Marjgery's

knows this and knows that Marjgery's fate is tied to Mace's army. As we and

fate is tied to Mace's army. As we and Mace himself established, as long as

Mace himself established, as long as Marjgerie is in danger, the Tyrell army

Marjgerie is in danger, the Tyrell army will not march south to face Aegon. Not

will not march south to face Aegon. Not to mention Cersei being in charge in

to mention Cersei being in charge in general is good for Aegon's chances.

general is good for Aegon's chances. Many prospective allies might think

Many prospective allies might think twice about joining her. In fact, her

twice about joining her. In fact, her leadership may give some noble houses

leadership may give some noble houses good cause to choose Aegon, including

good cause to choose Aegon, including many who would have unquestioningly

many who would have unquestioningly followed Tywin. Mace Tyrell is not an

followed Tywin. Mace Tyrell is not an example of exemplary leadership either.

example of exemplary leadership either. Not to mention, there's a very good

Not to mention, there's a very good chance some members of the small council

chance some members of the small council and other houses in general are likely

and other houses in general are likely already in league with Varys and Aegon,

already in league with Varys and Aegon, but simply haven't made their move yet.

but simply haven't made their move yet. Many noble houses will use that all too

Many noble houses will use that all too common strategy of waiting, delay, and

common strategy of waiting, delay, and proaricate and dissemble until one side

proaricate and dissemble until one side appears to have the upper hand and then

appears to have the upper hand and then join that side. Varys is nothing if not

join that side. Varys is nothing if not convincing, meaning many may join Aegon

convincing, meaning many may join Aegon because Varys will seduce them with his

because Varys will seduce them with his silver tongue. Of course, Aegon is

silver tongue. Of course, Aegon is winning, he'll say. He might even be

winning, he'll say. He might even be telling the truth. We should mention

telling the truth. We should mention Pycel here as well. Kevin was

Pycel here as well. Kevin was technically the second murder that day.

technically the second murder that day. Varys killed Pycel first and used him as

Varys killed Pycel first and used him as bait, but it wasn't just bait or revenge

bait, but it wasn't just bait or revenge for all the insults Pycel heaped on

for all the insults Pycel heaped on Varys over the span of two decades on

Varys over the span of two decades on the small council. Though Varys might

the small council. Though Varys might have enjoyed murdering Pycel given all

have enjoyed murdering Pycel given all that, it actually fits his plan

that, it actually fits his plan perfectly when we scrutinize it. With

perfectly when we scrutinize it. With Kevin, Varys used the crossbow so people

Kevin, Varys used the crossbow so people would think of Tyrion. With Pycel, there

would think of Tyrion. With Pycel, there was no need to be particular with the

was no need to be particular with the murder weapon, so he simply smashed his

murder weapon, so he simply smashed his head in from behind. We can be fairly

head in from behind. We can be fairly sure it was him and not one of the

sure it was him and not one of the little birds since they are children and

little birds since they are children and not likely to be capable of crushing his

not likely to be capable of crushing his skull. Plus, they're likely too short.

skull. Plus, they're likely too short. Varys spent 20 years pretending to be

Varys spent 20 years pretending to be soft, effeminate, afraid of blood,

soft, effeminate, afraid of blood, barely capable of witnessing violence,

barely capable of witnessing violence, let alone personally dispensing it. Now

let alone personally dispensing it. Now he is killing people with his own hands,

he is killing people with his own hands, but still keeping it a secret. For the

but still keeping it a secret. For the moment, only us readers know. Now we see

moment, only us readers know. Now we see how this long cultivated image fits into

how this long cultivated image fits into his overall plan. Many will overlook him

his overall plan. Many will overlook him as a culprit until it's too late. They

as a culprit until it's too late. They will be too busy fighting each other,

will be too busy fighting each other, which is exactly what he wants.

which is exactly what he wants. The death of Pycel adds to the suspicion

The death of Pycel adds to the suspicion that Tyrion is responsible. It was Pycel

that Tyrion is responsible. It was Pycel who accused Tyrion during his trial of

who accused Tyrion during his trial of stealing poisons from him. More

stealing poisons from him. More importantly, the trial was seen by many

importantly, the trial was seen by many and widely discussed afterwards. Tyrion

and widely discussed afterwards. Tyrion and Pycel's animosity towards one

and Pycel's animosity towards one another was on display for all to see.

another was on display for all to see. The motive is plain for all to see. Even

The motive is plain for all to see. Even though Tyrion is innocent of Joffrey's

though Tyrion is innocent of Joffrey's death, though technically Tyrion did

death, though technically Tyrion did steal those poisons from Pycel. Pycel

steal those poisons from Pycel. Pycel was right about that. Pycel has long

was right about that. Pycel has long been an open Lannister Toad as well.

been an open Lannister Toad as well. When sides are taken, he always takes

When sides are taken, he always takes Tywins or Cersei's. Since Varys wants

Tywins or Cersei's. Since Varys wants Aegon to take the throne, this removes

Aegon to take the throne, this removes an enemy from the small council. Pycel

an enemy from the small council. Pycel would clearly support Tommen over Aegon.

would clearly support Tommen over Aegon. And there's also the matter of his

And there's also the matter of his replacement. When Tyrion stripped Pycel

replacement. When Tyrion stripped Pycel of his office earlier in the story, the

of his office earlier in the story, the Citadel were apparently on the verge of

Citadel were apparently on the verge of sending a Maester Gorman to be the new

sending a Maester Gorman to be the new Grand Maester. It's an open secret that

Grand Maester. It's an open secret that Maester Gorman was born Gorman Tyrell,

Maester Gorman was born Gorman Tyrell, Ma Tyrell's uncle, no less, another

Ma Tyrell's uncle, no less, another Tyrell on the small council. It's easy

Tyrell on the small council. It's easy to see that Cersei might immediately

to see that Cersei might immediately conclude that the Tyrells were behind

conclude that the Tyrells were behind Pycel's murder. [clears throat]

Pycel's murder. [clears throat] So the murders of Kevin and Pycel are

So the murders of Kevin and Pycel are intended to seow chaos and discord in

intended to seow chaos and discord in the Red Keep that Aegon can exploit in

the Red Keep that Aegon can exploit in his invasion. They were done in a way to

his invasion. They were done in a way to divert attention away from Varys and

divert attention away from Varys and onto Tyrion and the Tyrells and maybe

onto Tyrion and the Tyrells and maybe even the Martell's. Cersei will very

even the Martell's. Cersei will very obviously react strongly. Removing the

obviously react strongly. Removing the competent Kevin and replacing him with

competent Kevin and replacing him with the less competent Cersei will, I'm

the less competent Cersei will, I'm sure, have explosive consequences. And

sure, have explosive consequences. And maybe those murders are just the

maybe those murders are just the beginning. Now that Varys's 20-year plan

beginning. Now that Varys's 20-year plan is culminating, now that Aegon has

is culminating, now that Aegon has landed to push his claim for the Iron

landed to push his claim for the Iron Throne, Varys can operate more

Throne, Varys can operate more aggressively and openly. Will Young

aggressively and openly. Will Young Griff or Aegon V 6th's invasion succeed?

Griff or Aegon V 6th's invasion succeed? And will he become king? And what then?

And will he become king? And what then? In the winds of winter, young Griff, the

In the winds of winter, young Griff, the boy claiming to be Aegon V 6th

boy claiming to be Aegon V 6th Targaryen, son of Rhaegar Targaryen and

Targaryen, son of Rhaegar Targaryen and rightful heir to the Iron Throne, has

rightful heir to the Iron Throne, has launched an invasion of Westeros with

launched an invasion of Westeros with the Golden Company, right at the end of

the Golden Company, right at the end of A Dance with Dragons. It's early days,

A Dance with Dragons. It's early days, but it seems to be going well so far.

but it seems to be going well so far. So, will he succeed? Will he become

So, will he succeed? Will he become king? Well, let's start with what we

king? Well, let's start with what we already know. So far, his army is

already know. So far, his army is basically just the Golden Company.

basically just the Golden Company. Although that is good in and of itself.

Although that is good in and of itself. They are the finest and largest cell

They are the finest and largest cell sword company in Essos. 10,000 men,

sword company in Essos. 10,000 men, including 500 knights, a thousand

including 500 knights, a thousand Bowman, and two dozen elephants. And

Bowman, and two dozen elephants. And they have allies that they are hoping

they have allies that they are hoping will rally to the cause. We looked last

will rally to the cause. We looked last time at their claims to have friends in

time at their claims to have friends in the reach and concluded that these

the reach and concluded that these friends are probably a handful of

friends are probably a handful of powerful but not top tier houses like

powerful but not top tier houses like Peak, Tarly, Florent, and maybe even

Peak, Tarly, Florent, and maybe even Rowan. They will also surely have a few

Rowan. They will also surely have a few similar friends in the Stormlands,

similar friends in the Stormlands, though for various reasons they are

though for various reasons they are unlikely to be able to field many

unlikely to be able to field many soldiers. And most importantly, they

soldiers. And most importantly, they expect House Martell to join them. We'll

expect House Martell to join them. We'll look at Doran Martell's full plan at

look at Doran Martell's full plan at some other point, but it's fair to say

some other point, but it's fair to say that the Martell's hate the Lannisters

that the Martell's hate the Lannisters for what they did to Ellia and her

for what they did to Ellia and her children and have long relied on strong

children and have long relied on strong marriage alliances with the Targaryenss

marriage alliances with the Targaryenss to bolster their position as far back as

to bolster their position as far back as Darren II, as well as, of course,

Darren II, as well as, of course, Doran's sister Ellia marrying Rhaegar.

Doran's sister Ellia marrying Rhaegar. Since the fall of the Targaryenss,

Since the fall of the Targaryenss, Arianne Martell was secretly engaged to

Arianne Martell was secretly engaged to Viceris. Quentyn Martell was sent to

Viceris. Quentyn Martell was sent to Meereen with a view to marrying Dany.

Meereen with a view to marrying Dany. And now Arianne has been sent to the

And now Arianne has been sent to the Stormlands to investigate the alleged

Stormlands to investigate the alleged Aegon V 6th. We know how impulsive,

Aegon V 6th. We know how impulsive, proud, and keen for power Arianne is,

proud, and keen for power Arianne is, and willing to seduce men for her own

and willing to seduce men for her own advantage. So what seems likely to

advantage. So what seems likely to happen when she meets the powerful,

happen when she meets the powerful, attractive, and charming young Griff?

attractive, and charming young Griff? And how will Doran react when he

And how will Doran react when he receives back from Meereen the bones of

receives back from Meereen the bones of his beloved Quentin together with a note

his beloved Quentin together with a note from Sarristan explaining that

from Sarristan explaining that Dany<unk>y's dragons killed Quentin.

Dany<unk>y's dragons killed Quentin. Dany herself is now married to someone

Dany herself is now married to someone else and has actually now disappeared as

else and has actually now disappeared as well. It's pretty clear which Targaryen

well. It's pretty clear which Targaryen Doran will want to back and it won't be

Doran will want to back and it won't be Dany. And as far as we can tell, this

Dany. And as far as we can tell, this will seem like a sensible move because

will seem like a sensible move because the invasion is progressing well. It

the invasion is progressing well. It didn't start off particularly well. The

didn't start off particularly well. The Golden Company's fleet was scattered by

Golden Company's fleet was scattered by a storm just past lease. The volunte

a storm just past lease. The volunte ships they used put to land where they

ships they used put to land where they could rather than all at the designated

could rather than all at the designated landing spot of Cape Roth in the

landing spot of Cape Roth in the Stormlands. Still, when they do land,

Stormlands. Still, when they do land, they make swift progress. The main force

they make swift progress. The main force that does land at Cape Roth is split

that does land at Cape Roth is split into four with John Cunnington leading

into four with John Cunnington leading one of the quarters to retake his

one of the quarters to retake his ancestral home of Griffin's Roost and

ancestral home of Griffin's Roost and two others claiming Crow's Rest and

two others claiming Crow's Rest and Rainhouse, respectively. The other

Rainhouse, respectively. The other scattered members of the Golden Company

scattered members of the Golden Company seemingly attack and take wherever they

seemingly attack and take wherever they have landed. Mistwood and parts of the

have landed. Mistwood and parts of the Rainwood and some islands, Estamont,

Rainwood and some islands, Estamont, Tarth, and some of the Stepstones, it

Tarth, and some of the Stepstones, it gives them a small tow hold in Westeros,

gives them a small tow hold in Westeros, but a tow hold nonetheless. And given

but a tow hold nonetheless. And given that most of the soldiers of the

that most of the soldiers of the Stormlands were either killed in the

Stormlands were either killed in the Battle of the Blackwater Bay or taken

Battle of the Blackwater Bay or taken north by Stannis and what is left is

north by Stannis and what is left is likely to be against the Lannisters or

likely to be against the Lannisters or maybe even know John Conington

maybe even know John Conington personally, the welcome they received

personally, the welcome they received seems less than hostile and at times

seems less than hostile and at times amicable. Their misinformation strategy

amicable. Their misinformation strategy also seems to have bought them a little

also seems to have bought them a little time. John Cunnington announced his

time. John Cunnington announced his return by letter to various places,

return by letter to various places, though most people think he's dead, and

though most people think he's dead, and the lack of Targaryen banners has

the lack of Targaryen banners has disguised their true intention and

disguised their true intention and loyalty. The result is that the small

loyalty. The result is that the small council may agree on the need to do

council may agree on the need to do something, but there is debate about who

something, but there is debate about who they are fighting and what they want,

they are fighting and what they want, not single-minded focus on a threat to

not single-minded focus on a threat to the throne itself.

the throne itself. The next step, though, is to claim

The next step, though, is to claim Storm's End, and they seem to have a

Storm's End, and they seem to have a strategy for that, too. John Cunnington

strategy for that, too. John Cunnington asserting that he intends to take it by

asserting that he intends to take it by guile and take it they do at least

guile and take it they do at least judging from the pre-released chapters

judging from the pre-released chapters of the winds of winter which are

of the winds of winter which are obviously not fully cannon yet but the

obviously not fully cannon yet but the closest we will get for now. Added to

closest we will get for now. Added to which with Storm's End falling to them

which with Storm's End falling to them and various lords rallying to the cause.

and various lords rallying to the cause. There is also a reasonable chance that

There is also a reasonable chance that Aegon might still gain more symbols of

Aegon might still gain more symbols of legitimacy. The sword Blackfire for

legitimacy. The sword Blackfire for example, the sword of Targaryen kings. I

example, the sword of Targaryen kings. I did a whole other video on that if

did a whole other video on that if you're wondering how he might get that

you're wondering how he might get that into his possession. But long story

into his possession. But long story short, I suspect that Yrio has it. And

short, I suspect that Yrio has it. And perhaps Aegon might start appointing

perhaps Aegon might start appointing more members to his king's guard. He

more members to his king's guard. He already has Sir Ry Duckfield, a personal

already has Sir Ry Duckfield, a personal pick, but we know that John Conington

pick, but we know that John Conington has in mind that the honor might best be

has in mind that the honor might best be held in reserve for warriors of greater

held in reserve for warriors of greater renown whose fieldalty would add luster

renown whose fieldalty would add luster to their cause, and the younger sons of

to their cause, and the younger sons of great lords whose support they would

great lords whose support they would need in the coming struggle.

need in the coming struggle. There are plenty of names that fit this

There are plenty of names that fit this bill, including Sir Gerald Dayne,

bill, including Sir Gerald Dayne, Darkstar with the Sword Dawn perhaps,

Darkstar with the Sword Dawn perhaps, who would put people in mind of Sir

who would put people in mind of Sir Arthur Dayne wielding the same sword.

Arthur Dayne wielding the same sword. Then there's Richard Lawnmouth,

Then there's Richard Lawnmouth, Rhaegar's former squire, if, as I

Rhaegar's former squire, if, as I suspect, he still lives. And Sir Donald

suspect, he still lives. And Sir Donald Swan, brother of the current King's

Swan, brother of the current King's Guarder, Balon Swan. There's already a

Guarder, Balon Swan. There's already a bit of foreshadowing about him switching

bit of foreshadowing about him switching sides once more. All in all, a strong

sides once more. All in all, a strong start, you might think, with the

start, you might think, with the potential for even more to come. But the

potential for even more to come. But the real prize is King's Landing itself, and

real prize is King's Landing itself, and that is ripe for the taking. Indeed,

that is ripe for the taking. Indeed, it's hard to imagine a set of

it's hard to imagine a set of circumstances in which King's Landing is

circumstances in which King's Landing is more open to falling. The last chapter

more open to falling. The last chapter we have in A Dance with Dragons sees

we have in A Dance with Dragons sees Kevin Lannister, who had been doing a

Kevin Lannister, who had been doing a solid job in managing the tensions in

solid job in managing the tensions in the city, murdered by Varys, who is team

the city, murdered by Varys, who is team Young Griff. In doing so, he

Young Griff. In doing so, he deliberately frames well, everyone. As

deliberately frames well, everyone. As he explains to Kevin, "Your niece will

he explains to Kevin, "Your niece will think the Tyrells had you murdered,

think the Tyrells had you murdered, perhaps with the connance of the imp.

perhaps with the connance of the imp. The Tyrells will suspect her. Someone

The Tyrells will suspect her. Someone somewhere will find a way to blame the

somewhere will find a way to blame the Dornishmen."

Dornishmen." This leaves Cersei in charge. Not the

This leaves Cersei in charge. Not the most stable pair of hands imaginable.

most stable pair of hands imaginable. And it also leaves Varys free to cause

And it also leaves Varys free to cause more mayhem. And don't forget that there

more mayhem. And don't forget that there are two sand snakes on the way,

are two sand snakes on the way, determined to kill Lannisters. And the

determined to kill Lannisters. And the other issues are stacking up. The crown

other issues are stacking up. The crown is deeply in debt to the Iron Bank, who

is deeply in debt to the Iron Bank, who seem to have thrown their weight behind

seem to have thrown their weight behind Stannis. Now there are local troubles

Stannis. Now there are local troubles with House Rosby, and the Faith of the

with House Rosby, and the Faith of the Seven is flexing its muscles under the

Seven is flexing its muscles under the High Sparrow, including through the

High Sparrow, including through the forthcoming trials for Marjgery and

forthcoming trials for Marjgery and Cersei. Oh, and food is barely getting

Cersei. Oh, and food is barely getting into King's Landing. The small folk are

into King's Landing. The small folk are struggling. The historical parallels

struggling. The historical parallels here abound. Cersei is often seen as

here abound. Cersei is often seen as being reminiscent of Mad King Aries II,

being reminiscent of Mad King Aries II, under whose rulership King's Landing

under whose rulership King's Landing fell, of course, but I wonder whether

fell, of course, but I wonder whether she might also have echoes of Rineer in

she might also have echoes of Rineer in the Dance of the Dragons, with the

the Dance of the Dragons, with the people rioting against her as they

people rioting against her as they starve and attacked punitively. The idea

starve and attacked punitively. The idea of a noble young king in waiting at

of a noble young king in waiting at Storm's End also has parallels. That's

Storm's End also has parallels. That's where Jiharis I held out while the lords

where Jiharis I held out while the lords of the realm fled from supporting Magor

of the realm fled from supporting Magor the Cruel to him. Varys sums up a lot of

the Cruel to him. Varys sums up a lot of what he hopes will happen in his little

what he hopes will happen in his little speech to the dying Kevin. Doubt,

speech to the dying Kevin. Doubt, division, and mistrust will eat the very

division, and mistrust will eat the very ground beneath your boy king, whilst

ground beneath your boy king, whilst Aegon raises his banner above Storm's

Aegon raises his banner above Storm's End, and the lords of the realm gather

End, and the lords of the realm gather around him. Probably most crucially of

around him. Probably most crucially of all, Cersei will be in charge at King's

all, Cersei will be in charge at King's Landing, and she will want to deal with

Landing, and she will want to deal with both the Tyrells, who she will think

both the Tyrells, who she will think killed Kevin, and the Faith of the

killed Kevin, and the Faith of the Seven, who imprisoned her. Perhaps her

Seven, who imprisoned her. Perhaps her revenge won't be exactly like what

revenge won't be exactly like what happened on the show with the blowing up

happened on the show with the blowing up of the Great Sept, destroying the

of the Great Sept, destroying the Tyrells, the High Sparrow, the lot of

Tyrells, the High Sparrow, the lot of them. Or perhaps it will be. Either way,

them. Or perhaps it will be. Either way, Cersei will get her revenge, and the

Cersei will get her revenge, and the Tyrells, or what is left of them, will

Tyrells, or what is left of them, will quit King's Landing seeking another king

quit King's Landing seeking another king to back. If I had to guess, the rumors

to back. If I had to guess, the rumors of an army heading down to Storm's End

of an army heading down to Storm's End that we hear in the pre-release chapters

that we hear in the pre-release chapters of the Winds of Winter are not of Ma

of the Winds of Winter are not of Ma Tyrell marching to resume his siege, but

Tyrell marching to resume his siege, but to pay falty to Aegon. Let's not pretend

to pay falty to Aegon. Let's not pretend that the Tyrells don't have a track

that the Tyrells don't have a track record of this. They were supportive of

record of this. They were supportive of King Aerys II, then swore falty to

King Aerys II, then swore falty to Robert Baratheon, the usurper, then

Robert Baratheon, the usurper, then switched to Renley Baratheon, then after

switched to Renley Baratheon, then after he was gone, allied themselves with the

he was gone, allied themselves with the Lannisters and the new King Joffrey.

Lannisters and the new King Joffrey. That's three times they've switched

That's three times they've switched their allegiance in short succession. A

their allegiance in short succession. A fourth time wouldn't be a shock,

fourth time wouldn't be a shock, particularly if Cersei does something

particularly if Cersei does something rash, and she almost certainly will do

rash, and she almost certainly will do something rash. And so I think we can

something rash. And so I think we can expect to see Fegon marching on King's

expect to see Fegon marching on King's Landing maybe halfway into the Winds of

Landing maybe halfway into the Winds of Winter. Could the Lannisters dig in and

Winter. Could the Lannisters dig in and successfully defend King's Landing?

successfully defend King's Landing? Possibly. Although with Varys sewing the

Possibly. Although with Varys sewing the seeds of discord inside the walls of the

seeds of discord inside the walls of the Red Keep, the people potentially turning

Red Keep, the people potentially turning against Cersei if she does anything

against Cersei if she does anything remotely like blowing up the Great Sept.

remotely like blowing up the Great Sept. And actually surprisingly few Lannister

And actually surprisingly few Lannister soldiers actually there. Kevin Lannister

soldiers actually there. Kevin Lannister mentions there being hundreds of

mentions there being hundreds of Lannister soldiers in the castle

Lannister soldiers in the castle compared to the tens of thousands there

compared to the tens of thousands there would be in a United golden company

would be in a United golden company Stormlands Reach and Dornish army. A

Stormlands Reach and Dornish army. A victory for Aegon seems likely in these

victory for Aegon seems likely in these circumstances. Very likely in fact

circumstances. Very likely in fact Cersei and her loyalists will be forced

Cersei and her loyalists will be forced to flee probably back towards

to flee probably back towards Castasterly Rock in the first instance

Castasterly Rock in the first instance which as an aside fits with George R.

which as an aside fits with George R. Martin's confirmation that we will see

Martin's confirmation that we will see Casterly Rock in a POV chapter. As he

Casterly Rock in a POV chapter. As he said, you know, the story takes over.

said, you know, the story takes over. The story makes its own demands. There

The story makes its own demands. There are other parts of Westeros that you

are other parts of Westeros that you will see in the last few books. I mean,

will see in the last few books. I mean, you've never seen Castelli Rock. You've

you've never seen Castelli Rock. You've never seen High Garden. I think both of

never seen High Garden. I think both of those locations will play key roles in

those locations will play key roles in the books to come. By far the most

the books to come. By far the most obvious POV character to visit there is

obvious POV character to visit there is Cersei.

Cersei. And then what for King's Landing? Well,

And then what for King's Landing? Well, Aegon will want to build up the

Aegon will want to build up the accutrants of power and stabilize his

accutrants of power and stabilize his rule. Even if he holds King's Landing,

rule. Even if he holds King's Landing, he won't have won the war. The

he won't have won the war. The Lannisters will fight on. Stannis will

Lannisters will fight on. Stannis will still claim the throne. The Iron

still claim the throne. The Iron Islanders under Euron won't bend the

Islanders under Euron won't bend the knee and so on. And there will be

knee and so on. And there will be inevitably questions about whether he

inevitably questions about whether he actually is Aegon. So, he will want to

actually is Aegon. So, he will want to look as Targaryeny as possible to look

look as Targaryeny as possible to look like the rightful heir. And even if he

like the rightful heir. And even if he has other priorities, his advisers will

has other priorities, his advisers will definitely want that. He will look

definitely want that. He will look Targaryen, claim Targaryen heritage,

Targaryen, claim Targaryen heritage, probably have the sword Blackfire, and a

probably have the sword Blackfire, and a king's guard that echoes old Targaryen

king's guard that echoes old Targaryen king's gods, and now he will sit on the

king's gods, and now he will sit on the Iron Throne, and I'm sure be crowned

Iron Throne, and I'm sure be crowned with one of the many Targaryen crowns,

with one of the many Targaryen crowns, and very probably by the High Septan. He

and very probably by the High Septan. He will look every inch the Targaryen king,

will look every inch the Targaryen king, and I suspect that the people will love

and I suspect that the people will love him. If he has support from the Reach,

him. If he has support from the Reach, he will be able to get food back into

he will be able to get food back into the city, and he will probably be able

the city, and he will probably be able to deliver a period of relative calm for

to deliver a period of relative calm for the region. The immediate threats to the

the region. The immediate threats to the city will have gone with Cersei

city will have gone with Cersei retreating to the Westerlands, Stannis

retreating to the Westerlands, Stannis in the north, the Starks and their

in the north, the Starks and their allies also focused up there, and Euron

allies also focused up there, and Euron basing himself off the coast of the

basing himself off the coast of the Reach for the time being. Dany is still

Reach for the time being. Dany is still months, if not years, away from

months, if not years, away from launching her invasion. And we have some

launching her invasion. And we have some prophecy that also suggests he will be

prophecy that also suggests he will be popular. One of the blizzard of visions

popular. One of the blizzard of visions that Dany received in the House of the

that Dany received in the House of the Undying was that of a cloth dragon

Undying was that of a cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd.

swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd. Dany interprets this as a mummer's

Dany interprets this as a mummer's dragon, so a false dragon, which fits

dragon, so a false dragon, which fits with our central theory that young Griff

with our central theory that young Griff is actually technically a Blackfire

is actually technically a Blackfire rather than a Targaryen. We'll come back

rather than a Targaryen. We'll come back to that point in a bit. But the idea of

to that point in a bit. But the idea of a cheering crowd suggests that he will

a cheering crowd suggests that he will be popular, which fits with what we know

be popular, which fits with what we know of him, taught to care about the small

of him, taught to care about the small folk. So what is to stop him once he has

folk. So what is to stop him once he has the iron throne? Well, two things

the iron throne? Well, two things possibly. The first is gayscale or the

possibly. The first is gayscale or the gray plague. On the TV show Juror

gray plague. On the TV show Juror Mormont contracted gayscale in Essos and

Mormont contracted gayscale in Essos and hid it from those around him before

hid it from those around him before finally being healed by Sam. In the

finally being healed by Sam. In the books, it is John Conington who has the

books, it is John Conington who has the affliction and is keeping it secret.

affliction and is keeping it secret. Gayscale is a mysterious magical disease

Gayscale is a mysterious magical disease and those who contract it are usually

and those who contract it are usually either killed or quarantined for their

either killed or quarantined for their own safety and that of others. Its

own safety and that of others. Its highly infectious cousin, the grey

highly infectious cousin, the grey plague, can sweep through cities in

plague, can sweep through cities in weeks, killing thousands. We hear about

weeks, killing thousands. We hear about it three times in the background of this

it three times in the background of this story. In Oldtown, then Pentos, then

story. In Oldtown, then Pentos, then Yeeti during a feast for crows. Are

Yeeti during a feast for crows. Are these just foreshadowing of an outbreak

these just foreshadowing of an outbreak closer to home? Perhaps an outbreak of

closer to home? Perhaps an outbreak of the great plague in King's Landing would

the great plague in King's Landing would kill thousands, perhaps even tens or

kill thousands, perhaps even tens or hundreds of thousands. If the rumor gets

hundreds of thousands. If the rumor gets out that it was caused by Aegon's

out that it was caused by Aegon's invasion, that would certainly turn the

invasion, that would certainly turn the people against him.

people against him. The second thing in Aegon's way will of

The second thing in Aegon's way will of course be Daenerys. It's a subject for

course be Daenerys. It's a subject for another video, but Dany<unk>y's time in

another video, but Dany<unk>y's time in the Dothraki Sea will almost certainly

the Dothraki Sea will almost certainly change her. That's not me saying that.

change her. That's not me saying that. It's George R. Martin. But again, that's

It's George R. Martin. But again, that's the topic of another video. She had been

the topic of another video. She had been content to rule Meereen, but now

content to rule Meereen, but now potentially with the Dothraki on her

potentially with the Dothraki on her side, lots of new and old allies waiting

side, lots of new and old allies waiting for her in Meereen, Unsullied, the

for her in Meereen, Unsullied, the Second Sons, Mako, etc., and a lot of

Second Sons, Mako, etc., and a lot of ships. Her own invasion will probably

ships. Her own invasion will probably start soon. She will sail to the seven

start soon. She will sail to the seven kingdoms to claim what she believes is

kingdoms to claim what she believes is hers by fire and blood. She will

hers by fire and blood. She will probably stop off a couple of times on

probably stop off a couple of times on route to deal with a few old grudges,

route to deal with a few old grudges, the other cities of Slavers Bay, maybe

the other cities of Slavers Bay, maybe Volantis, and so on. But her, the

Volantis, and so on. But her, the Dothraki, the Unsullied, and her dragons

Dothraki, the Unsullied, and her dragons will set off westwards and probably

will set off westwards and probably arrive around the end of the winds of

arrive around the end of the winds of winter. She will arrive to discover that

winter. She will arrive to discover that there is already somebody in place in

there is already somebody in place in King's Landing who claims to be her

King's Landing who claims to be her nephew, but ahead of her in the

nephew, but ahead of her in the Targaryen line of succession. I think

Targaryen line of succession. I think she will be suspicious of this. One of

she will be suspicious of this. One of the repeated exhortations from the House

the repeated exhortations from the House of the Undying was that she was the

of the Undying was that she was the slayer of lies and Quaith will have made

slayer of lies and Quaith will have made her wary of the mummer's dragon, that

her wary of the mummer's dragon, that she needs to expose the lie. He is not a

she needs to expose the lie. He is not a true Targaryen. And although I think we

true Targaryen. And although I think we are still a long way away from knowing

are still a long way away from knowing exactly how this will happen, I

exactly how this will happen, I personally suspect that dragon fire will

personally suspect that dragon fire will play a role as it may in ending many

play a role as it may in ending many plagues like the great fire of London in

plagues like the great fire of London in 1666 ended the great plague of 1665. So

1666 ended the great plague of 1665. So although I am sure there will be

although I am sure there will be diplomatic overtures, young Griff was

diplomatic overtures, young Griff was definitely hoping that Dany would arrive

definitely hoping that Dany would arrive with her dragons and join his side and

with her dragons and join his side and maybe even marry him. Daenerys doesn't

maybe even marry him. Daenerys doesn't seem likely to entertain much opposition

seem likely to entertain much opposition to her sole rule. Still, around this

to her sole rule. Still, around this time, I suspect that the threat from the

time, I suspect that the threat from the others will start to become very real,

others will start to become very real, even to those in King's Landing, and

even to those in King's Landing, and maybe Jon will appear. And Doran

maybe Jon will appear. And Doran Martell, with the downfall of Aegon, if

Martell, with the downfall of Aegon, if that happens, Doran's last plan will

that happens, Doran's last plan will fall apart. The Martell's previous

fall apart. The Martell's previous plotting and engagements with the

plotting and engagements with the Targaryenss lost him his uncle, his

Targaryenss lost him his uncle, his sister, a niece, and a nephew. And then

sister, a niece, and a nephew. And then his follow-up ended with the death of

his follow-up ended with the death of his son Quentin, his brother Oberin,

his son Quentin, his brother Oberin, probably several nieces, and maybe even

probably several nieces, and maybe even his daughter Arianne. I can't imagine

his daughter Arianne. I can't imagine him surviving that psychologically if

him surviving that psychologically if not in actual terms. Young Griff will

not in actual terms. Young Griff will claim the throne. I feel confident about

claim the throne. I feel confident about that. But he probably won't hold it. And

that. But he probably won't hold it. And when he falls, so will many others. The

when he falls, so will many others. The tragedy of Young Griff is that he

tragedy of Young Griff is that he probably would have been a good king

probably would have been a good king given time. He probably would have cared

given time. He probably would have cared about the small folk and tried to rule

about the small folk and tried to rule justly. But this is not a story with a

justly. But this is not a story with a happy ending. The ending will be

happy ending. The ending will be satisfying, but not necessarily the one

satisfying, but not necessarily the one we or the people of King's Landing want.

we or the people of King's Landing want. And that's it. I hope you enjoyed this

And that's it. I hope you enjoyed this compilation. Let me know in the comments

compilation. Let me know in the comments if you'd like to see more like this. If

if you'd like to see more like this. If you'd like to see more videos breaking

you'd like to see more videos breaking down A Song of Ice and Fire in nerdy

down A Song of Ice and Fire in nerdy detail, there's a playlist on the left

detail, there's a playlist on the left of your screen now. Or to support this

of your screen now. Or to support this channel, thank you. There's a link to my

channel, thank you. There's a link to my Patreon page on the right of the screen.

Patreon page on the right of the screen. Thanks for watching. That's all for this

Thanks for watching. That's all for this time. I'll see you again soon.

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YouTube Transcript:The Complete Varys, Illyrio and Young Griff