Ukraine has demonstrated a significant escalation in its offensive capabilities by successfully striking key Russian military-industrial facilities, specifically targeting missile production and storage, thereby directly undermining Russia's war-making capacity.
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When it rains, it pours, and Putin’s head is sodden right now. A bad week has just gotten
worse for Russia’s President, as Ukraine has just shown him that nowhere in Russia is safe from the
Ukrainian long-range arsenal. The war machine has been ripped open. A strike to its heart has been
completed as Ukraine pulled off something for the history books, doing in hours what Europe
has failed to do for years. Russia’s progress has stalled. Because Progress has been hit.
Specifically, Ukraine carried out a historic strike against the Michurinsky Zavod Progress
defense plant overnight on February 12, which caused a huge fire and left smoke pouring out
of the facility's grounds. Russia’s forces were helpless to stop it. United24 Media reports that
soldiers had to resort to small arms fire to stop Ukraine’s incoming projectiles,
likely due to an absence of air defenses at a plant that is absolutely vital to the Russian
war effort. We’ll explain how in just a moment. First, what we know about Ukraine’s strike is that
it took place in Russia’s Tambov region, which is about 480 kilometers, or almost 300 miles,
southeast of the Moscow oblast. The region is home to extensive amounts of rail infrastructure,
but it wasn’t Russian logistics that Ukraine was targeting on the night of February 12.
It was a plant that is vital to Russia’s military aviation and, crucially, to the country’s ability
to produce the missiles that it has been using to attack Ukraine’s cities and energy infrastructure.
Russia’s authorities claimed that they were “repelling a massive UAV attack,” NewsSky reports,
though it doesn’t look like any actual repelling took place. A series of explosions rocked the
Progress factory as Ukraine’s long-range strike drones scored direct hits on their targets,
creating a situation where even the governor of the Tambov region, Yevgeny Pervishov, was forced
to admit that the strike occurred. Of course, he trotted out the old drone debris excuse,
though he didn’t use the specific words, as he claimed that “the drones were shot down over the
industrial zone, where a fire broke out.” In other words, Russia’s air defenses failed. Ukraine’s
drones found their marks. NewsSky reports that the Progress plant fire was so massive that it
was visible from tens of kilometers away. Russian Telegram channels have also reported on what
happened at the plant, noting that the authorities are already doing everything they can to conceal
the incident. The entrance to the plant has been blocked, and there are rumors of casualties
occurring. Frankly, there’s not much that Russia can do to stop the news from breaking. A fire so
massive that it can be seen from the surrounding town isn’t exactly easy to hide. This strike is
huge for Ukraine and devastating to the Russian war machine. Why? The Michurinsky Zavod Progress
plant is absolutely vital to Russia’s war machine. As NewsSky points out in its February 13 report
on the strike, Ukraine’s strike was calculated to destroy production buildings that contain complex
equipment, rather than empty warehouses that won’t cost Russia much. That complex equipment
is responsible for manufacturing equipment that is used in Russia’s missile and aircraft control
systems. This equipment includes electronic units, switching modules, and radio electronics elements,
all of which a weapon or airframe needs to ensure that it’s able to navigate wherever it needs to
go. In short, this is an attack that Ukraine conducted to utterly blind Russia’s missile
forces. And Ukraine needed to do that because Russia has ramped up its missile attacks on
Ukrainian territory over the winter. As The Kyiv Independent reported back in January,
Russia has updated its mass missile and drone assaults. Where Putin’s forces once attacked
several types of targets, they have now homed in on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in a desperate
attempt to freeze Ukraine out before the warmer weather comes and the war devolves back down to
Russia hopelessly throwing its soldiers into the meatgrinder. Russia’s new tactics, which have been
bolstered by increased missile production that seems to indicate that Western sanctions aren’t
working, are designed to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defenses. That’s according to Ukrainian defense
expert and military officer, Viktor Kevliuk, who says, “Such a 'mix' of weapons in large
quantities indicates a change in strike tactics — instead of single-type attacks, Russia is trying
to overload air defense systems with a complex set of threats.” Russia’s use of ballistic missiles,
along with how debris from the missiles it’s now firing into Ukraine suggests that many were built
within weeks of being deployed, all point to sanctions not doing the job that they’re
supposed to be doing. Russia is still receiving the components that it needs to make its missiles.
It’s still receiving what it needs for plants like Progress to continue manufacturing guidance
systems and other equipment that make those missiles functional. The Progress strike was
about destroying Russian missile manufacturing at one of its sources. And it was a blow struck
so hard that even Europe’s collective ears are ringing, as Ukraine delivers the clear message
that far more needs to be done with sanctions and enforcement to prevent plants like Progress from
doing what they’re doing. You could also look at the Progress strike as Ukraine extracting
some measure of revenge against Russia for its missile attacks. That’s an interesting perspective
because, as The Kyiv Independent wrote on February 14, Russia has been trying to frame its attacks
on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as revenge for the deep strike strategy that is destroying
Russia from the inside out. Russia often uses terms like “forced measures” and “responses”
when detailing its attacks against Ukraine, all of which are nonsense terms that exist solely to
try to shift blame for what Russia is doing with its missiles onto Ukraine’s shoulders.
What’s really happening, as King’s College London-based defense expert Michael Clarke
says, is that “Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy generation facilities appear designed
specifically to affect civilians,” which is “automatically evidence of a war crime.” Ukraine,
on the other hand, uses its long-range drones and, as you’ll find out if you keep watching,
its growing supply of missiles and drone-missile hybrids to strike oil, fuel infrastructure,
military nodes, and other legitimate targets that weaken the Russian war machine. For Ukraine,
the defense reasoning is wholly justified. And with its most recent strike against the Progress
facility, Ukraine has done what Europe failed to do by shutting down a factory that is a key pillar
of Putin’s brutal long-range strategy. That’s not all that the Progress strike achieved, either. As
NewsSky points out, components for missiles and airframes aren’t the only products made at the
facility that now burns. The outlet notes that the Progress plant also makes equipment that is used
in the oil and gas pipelines that Russia uses to transport its most important products around the
country and into the rest of the world. It almost goes without saying why this is another important
aspect of Ukraine’s historic Progress plant attack. If Russia can’t build or maintain its
pipelines, Ukraine has taken another bite out of an energy industry that is already collapsing to
the point where the Kremlin made 50% less revenue from energy product taxation in January 2026 than
it did the previous January. Oh, and if you add the electrical products for the civilian
sector that the Progress plant produces, you even get a healthy dose of Ukraine bringing the pain
of the war that Putin started back to Russia’s people. Russia’s reaction has been…interesting.
It’s a mix of silent confessions, as we see with the usual drone debris excuses, and claims that
it successfully repelled the strike against the Progress facility. We saw something similar when
Ukraine hit the plant back in June 2025, though that time, Russia tried to pass off what happened
as a “local incident.” This latest strike is too big to allow Russia to pull down the curtain on
what happened, so you get this strange hybrid of admission tinged with denial. As Russia claims to
have put out the fire, NewsSky says, Telegram channels are reporting on the burning being so
intense that personnel and residents from nearby neighborhoods may be forced to evacuate. It’s a
tale of two stories. And we know that Russia’s version is always laced with propaganda and lies.
Now, we mentioned something about Ukraine using its missiles against Russia a little
while ago. It did just that in another round of strikes that turned a historic night for Ukraine
into a cataclysmic collapse of the Russian war machine for Putin. But before we get into that,
you’re watching The Military Show. If you haven’t subscribed yet, now’s the perfect time to do it.
Back to the Ukrainian missiles. As one of Russia’s key military component product plants burns,
Ukraine has proven that it’s able to strike hard against other targets using its own missiles. Or,
more specifically, it's the missile-drone hybrid, the Flamingo. Also on February 12, United24 Media
reported that Ukraine has pulled off an immense strike against a massive military ammunition
storage site that belongs to the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate, or GRAU. This spectacular
double-tap once again saw Ukraine’s projectiles hurtle into Russia, as Flamingo missiles took
flight and headed into the Volgograd region to absolutely annihilate a GRAU facility near the
settlement of Kotluban that is believed to be one of Russia’s largest storage hubs for the ammo,
explosives, and missiles that its military uses in Ukraine. The Ukrainian defense forces revealed
that it had pulled off in a statement published on Telegram, where it said, “Powerful explosions
were recorded on the territory of the facility with subsequent secondary detonation.” While the
full scale of the damage is being assessed, what we see here is yet another successful
use of Flamingo against a Russian military target. This is a weapon that was never supposed to exist.
Putin believed that Ukraine would have crumbled under Russia’s might long before it developed any
missiles, or drone-missile hybrids, that could present a serious threat to Russia. Now, a GRAU
facility has been destroyed. The very missiles that Russia launches into Ukraine are exploding
on the ground to compound that destruction. And as if the week couldn’t get any worse for Russia,
this was just one of several attacks that Ukraine pulled off in a day of strikes that targeted the
Russian war machine. Also in Volgograd, Ukraine struck the ELOU-AVT-1 oil refinery plant,
destroying infrastructure and AVT-3 elements, according to Ukraine’s General Staff. In the
occupied portions of Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine also managed to take out a warehouse filled with the
ammunition that Russia’s soldiers are using in Ukraine every single day. Russia’s response
to all of this has been about what you would expect. The Volgograd governor, Andrei Bocharov,
admitted that a fire had broken out at a facility that is operated by the Russian Defense Ministry,
and that the damage done was extensive enough to have forced emergency evacuations. Of course,
there’s no mention of what that facility is, though the footage of explosions and fires
shared to X by NOELreports makes it pretty clear. Monitoring channels have also reported massive
explosions and the sound of air defense activity, all of which indicate that Ukraine targeted
something valuable and, if Ukraine itself is to be believed, it scored direct hits. Of course,
Bocharov has also claimed that Russia repelled the incoming threats – there are those words
again – even as the facility that was being targeted by those threats is burning. At this
point, we’re not sure if Russia’s authorities know what the word “repel” means. You use it when your
air defenses actually stop attacks, Bocharov, not when a facility is hit so hard that the ammunition
inside starts exploding too! Russia’s Defense Ministry has kept its collective mouth shut
about the Volgograd attack, according to United24 Media. It has said that air defenses shot down
106 Ukrainian drones on the night of the attack, with one of those supposedly being taken out in
Volgograd, and 13 more in Tambov. But can anybody really believe that at this point? Both of those
regions have key facilities linked to Russia’s missile strategy that have been destroyed, and
the Defense Ministry is simply burying its head in the sand as its missiles and the components used
to make them go up in smoke. Significant damage was caused by Ukraine on February 12. Damage so
intensive that it has ripped out the heart of the Russian war machine. In a moment, we’ll tell you
why one of these strikes being inflicted by a Flamingo drone-missile hybrid was so
important. But before we do, let’s focus on what was clearly the main target of Ukraine’s attacks:
Russia’s missile capabilities. We’ve already explored how Russia has been using its missiles
to devastate Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which is an approach that is clearly designed
to indirectly kill Ukrainian civilians, rather than take out legitimate military targets. But
Ukraine’s big problem, according to a military analyst who spoke to The New Voice of Ukraine
in December, is that Russia is now in a position where it’s able to quickly replace the missiles
that it’s expending in Ukraine. Anatoliy Khrapchynskyi, who is a former officer in
Ukraine’s Air Force and an aviation expert, Russia is now building enough missiles to enable it to
carry out large attacks on Ukraine one or twice per week. “By various estimates, Russia may have
half a thousand Iskanders in reserve, several hundred Kh-101/Kh-555s, as well as significant
stockpiles of Kh-59s and Kh-32s,” Khrapchynskyi says. He even provides specific numbers, noting
that Russia has been able to build stockpiles of between 300 and 350 Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles,
up to 500 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, around 250 to 300 Iskander-K cruise missiles, and up to
200 Kalibr missiles. “Altogether, this gives the aggressor a large mixed stockpile that allows it
to form powerful strike packages and maintain high-intensity terror,” Khrapchynskyi adds,
as he notes that Russia is replenishing its missiles at a rate of between 120 and 150% of
its expenditure. In other words, for every 100 missiles that Russia is using in Ukraine, it’s
building between 120 and 150. This is a problem. And it’s the precise type of thing that Western
sanctions were supposed to stop Russia’s missile manufacturers from making, and those manufacturers
haven’t been affected very much. At least, not anywhere near the scale that Ukraine needs them to
be affected. So, Ukraine’s historic strikes have clear purposes. Destroying the storage depot in
Volgograd is enough to take some of Russia’s missiles out of commission, though that will
only be the case until Russia can move more of its projectiles into the oblast. Far more important is
the strike on the Progress facility because taking out the means of missile production ensures that
Russia can’t replenish its stockpiles. Ukraine is doing what sanctions failed to do. And it is
doing it by continuing a deep strike strategy that has proven extremely effective. As NewsSky notes,
Ukraine has spent the last couple of years systematically developing its long-range
capabilities so that it can pull off the kinds of strikes that we saw in Volgograd and Tambov
on February 12. The creation of Flamingo is a perfect example. When Putin launched his invasion,
drones were considered to be an annoyance that might hamper Russia’s mighty military,
but would be able to do little to stop it. Now, Ukraine has a drone-missile hybrid that packs an
immense amount of firepower and can strike targets that are literally hundreds of miles deep in
Russian territory. These long-range capabilities deliver three things to Ukraine. On the strategic
front, attacks like those Ukraine just pulled off represent a direct challenge to Russia’s strategic
depth. The Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute noted as much in the wake of Ukraine’s
legendary Operation Spiderweb, which saw it take out a huge chunk of Russia’s strategic bomber
fleet using drones that Ukraine snuck into Russia in trucks. “These strikes represent a fundamental
challenge to Russia’s strategic doctrine, which has long relied on an ability to retreat into
its territorial depth when under attack,” the institute said. Russia can’t do that anymore,
as Ukraine has weapons that can hit Russian assets so deep into Russia that those assets would have
to be withdrawn to the point where they become non-factors in the Ukraine war to no longer be
affected. As Forbes added in December, Ukraine having the ability to pull off these kinds of
strikes also gives it valuable leverage in peace talks. Putin is trying to characterize the Ukraine
war as a fight in which Ukraine is on the brink of destruction, and it’s only a matter of time
before the Russian army sweeps through. He’s been trying to say things like that for four years now,
and every time that Ukraine takes out a missile production facility or a storage depot,
it’s a reminder that Putin’s deception is born from the desperation he feels now that the deep
strike strategy has brought his war back home. And, of course, there’s also the cost. Between
January and August 2025, Ukraine’s strikes inflicted $74.1 billion of damage on Russia,
which amounts to 4.11% of the country’s annual gross domestic product. Many billions more will
have been added since, and the destruction of the Progress plant adds yet more. Who knows how much
it will take Russia to carry out the repairs needed to get that plant up and running again.
Russia has to make those repairs. It can’t afford to be without a plant that is so vital to its
missile-based strategy. So, what we’re seeing with Ukraine’s deep strikes is the continued
degradation of a narrative that Putin has spent years trying to create. Russia isn’t all-powerful.
It’s vulnerable, and Ukraine keeps on proving it. With Flamingo, it even has the perfect weapon for
the job. Capable of traveling for around 3,000 kilometers, or about 1,860 miles, and able to
deliver a 1,150-kilogram, or 2,530-pound, warhead, Flamingo is a threat to Russia. Ukraine proved
that in Volgograd. But it’s a threat that Putin hoped he had extinguished. Earlier in February,
the news broke that Russia, in a rare case of it carrying out a strike based on intelligence, had
managed to destroy the Flamingo missile production lines. But Putin couldn’t celebrate this victory
for long. As Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said in Munich just days later, “One
large production line was destroyed as a result of a missile strike. But I can already talk about
it. It has already been relocated, and production has resumed.” Nothing is stopping Flamingo. Repeat
strikes against Russian assets in Volgograd prove it, as does a January attack on the
Kapustin Yar test range that is the site that Russia uses to launch its Oreshnik hypersonic
missiles. And as Flamingo continues to fly, after Russia failed to clip its wings, the Russian
military-industrial complex is being strangled. The simple fact is that Russia can’t keep up
what it’s doing in Ukraine if it loses facilities like the Progress plant. Russia needs missiles.
It needs functioning airframes. Every strike that diminishes Russia’s long-range capacity is
a strike that both enhances Ukraine’s chances of survival and showcases that the country is growing
increasingly powerful, despite everything that Putin is trying to do. It took hours for Ukraine
to do what sanctions have taken years to fail to do. The odds are that Ukraine will do something
similar very soon, as, among other strategies, deep strikes represent the country’s pathway
to victory against Russia. Massive investments in backup power, hardened infrastructure, and
Ukraine’s precision strikes are combining to make 2026 the year that Ukraine can win the war. Find
out more in our video. And if you enjoyed this video, remember to subscribe to The Military Show
for more coverage of everything that Ukraine does to shatter the myth of the Russian war machine.
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