When alt season, every cycle has a
rhythm. And if history is right, we're
headed straight into the final act. Our
guest today is Ben Cowan, the founder of
Into the Cryptoverse and one of the most
respected analysts in the space. He has
a PhD in nuclear engineering with a
background in computational modeling.
And that's why his signals matter and
why I wanted him on right now. He says
the data is screaming the same thing it
always does right before a cycle top.
Normally cycles end in Q4 of the post
having year, right? So that's coming up
relatively soon. Uh if you look at you
know the last few cycles, this was the
fourth quarter of 2013, the fourth
quarter of 2017 and then the fourth
quarter of 2021. And so it at least
stands to reason that we might have a
top sometime, you know, in the fourth
quarter of the year.
So there it is. Ben thinks Q4 is where
the fireworks hit. But this cycle has a
twist because while Bitcoin's been
grinding higher, retail, well, they
really haven't showed up.
Retail never really came back. Um, that
doesn't mean we don't have retail
investors. We just have the same retail
investors for the most part that we had
back four years ago. A lot of this cycle
seems to be more like, you know, you
could argue ETF driven, institutionally driven.
driven.
That's exactly what's playing out right
now. Wall Street is carrying this market
while the average investor stays
sidelined. And before we get to alt
season, Ben says there's one more
rotation and it isn't the one most
people expect.
I think people are missing a step. I I
think so it was it was first it was
Bitcoin to ETH, right? And and and now
right now you're getting
I'll make you guys watch to find out.
But that's the move that lights the fuse
for the parabolic altcoin runs
everyone's waiting for. And if you're
betting October is when alts take off.
Well guys, Ben has a different read. You
know, when you look at Bitcoin
dominance, normally it reverses course
in the month of September and then for
it to explode higher in October. And so
that's the reason why I still think the
alt season calls are premature.
So if October is setting up as Bitcoin's
month, when alt season, guys, here's the
hard truth. Historically, the real alt
season doesn't arrive until one key
event triggers it. And Ben lays it out
clearly. in order to get an alt season
like what people remember as alt season
back in like late 2017 late 2021 is you
need today Ben reveals his full playbook
for how the cycle plays out and how he's
positioning to maximize profits. So guys
without further ado let's bring on the
man, the myth, the legend, Benjamin Cowan.
Cowan. [Music]
[Music]
Ben, welcome back to the show. Good to
have you here. uh how's it going? And uh
first question is, you know, where are
we in this market? It feels like one of
the most boring bull markets uh we've
ever seen. But just curious, generally
speaking, you know, where are we right now?
now?
Yeah, thanks for having me. Pleasure to
be here as as always. Um this has been
somewhat of a boring cycle. I think I I
think mainly it's felt boring because a
lot of altcoins haven't really
participated as much as, you know, like
what people remember. Um, but since the
last time we spoke, we at least now have
Ethereum participating. I think last
time we spoke, Ethereum was, you know,
nowhere to be found, right? In terms of
uh even flirting with the all-time
highs. So, we've at least seen we've
seen Ethereum join in. I can at least
share my screen and and and perhaps give
some insight into where I think we are.
But, you know, it's it's really anyone's
guess. I mean, when I when I think about
the cycles, I I think about, you know, a
lot of repetitive behavior. And if you
look at like the ROI from the low, you
know, this cycle is getting potentially
close to the end. Uh, normally cycles
end in Q4 of the post having year,
right? So that's coming up relatively
soon. Uh, if you look at, you know, the
last few cycles, this was the fourth
quarter of 2013, the fourth quarter of
2017, and then the fourth quarter of
2021. And so, I mean, it at least stand
nothing's a sure thing, right? No one
actually knows what's going to happen,
but it at least stands to reason that we
might have a top sometime, you know, in
the fourth quarter of the year. Um, and
of course, it is sort of, you know,
raised the question, well, what about
altcoins, right? When are altcoins going
to participate or are they going to
participate? Normally, you know, when
you do get an alt season, that's us
that's usually a sign that the cycle's
over, right? So by the time you by the
time you get that it it usually means
that the Bitcoin's bull market is over.
Um I think this I think one of the other
reasons why this one has felt a lot more
boring is also because we have
diminishing returns from one cycle to
another, right? Like every cycle gives
us slightly smaller returns. It's still
great returns. I mean Bitcoin, you know,
started the cycle at 15K and now it's,
you know, it's already hit 124. um you
you're already talking about a 7 to 8x
move from the low which for stock for
the stock market that would be a great
return over 3 years. Um but I think a
lot of people in crypto you know they're
so accustomed to chasing those higher
gains and and it's been a more boring
cycle because a lot of the gains the the
the gains to be to be had were just in
Bitcoin and you know I I think that's
kind of the hard part about this cycle.
It's mo it's mostly been a a a a Bitcoin
maxi cycle for the most part with a few
exceptions. cuz we've seen some altcoins
do well. Um but yeah, that's where I
think we are. I mean, and and also one
other thing when when you look at how
cycles finish, what normally happens, uh
is you get a a local top in August and
then a local low in September and then
you go into the market cycle top, right?
So in 2021, we set a high here like in
late August, early September. We then
set the local low in late September and
then we went into the market cycle top
in Q4. Same thing in 2017, right? We set
a high in August, a low in September,
and then the market cycle top was in Q4.
Same thing in 2013, a high in August, a
low in September, and then the market
cycle top in Q4. And so when you look at
this cycle, you you actually can see
that it's the same thing, right? I mean,
you have a high in August, a low in
September. Um, and and there's a good
chance the low for September is already
in. uh if it's not then I mean it could
go a little bit lower and then
potentially going up into whatever you
know the the final top is. I mean I I
think it would be prudent as an investor
to at least entertain the idea that 2026
will we'll see Bitcoin retracing some uh
and then hopefully just gearing up for
another good year in in 2027. It's just
kind of the way the cycle's worked and I
still subscribe to the idea if it's not
broke don't try to fix it.
Yeah. So, okay. So, but what about uh
yeah, I'll get into that a little bit
more in just a second, but what about
the altcoins? Do do we think that uh you
know do we think that if we continue to
go higher in this Q4 that we're going to
get retail coming back and we're going
to get or you know I know that you
you're mostly into charts but
are we just seeing like a not enough
capital in the retail markets to to give
us an altcoin season or people broke or
what's going on? Well, I think one of
the reasons this cycle feels different
too is because a lot of the retail
investors that people keep talking I
mean to some degree we are retail
investors, right? But like in order to
see more retail investors come in um
you know like we're not seeing that. I
mean this is the uh this chart so shows
the social risk and and you can see like
this kind of explains how everyone's
feeling, right? Like everyone feels like
this cycle sucks and one of the reasons
is because you don't really have a lot
of new participants. um you know this
orange line basically when it's up high
it shows that like retail is flooding in
and when it's down low it shows that
like retail really doesn't care and
we're now almost in Q4 of the post
having year and retail never really came
back um that doesn't mean we don't have
retail investors we just have the same
retail investors for the most part uh
that we had back four years ago a lot of
this cycle seems to be more like you
know you could argue ETF driven
institutional driven. Um, and I I've
been a big believer that one way you
could get retail to potentially come
back, and again, there's no guarantees,
but a lot of people while they while we
cheer on Bitcoin, and I mean, I, you
know, I've been, you know, sort of the
Bitcoin dominance train for a long time,
but while a lot of people watch Bitcoin,
a lot of people that like watch YouTube
and whatnot, they actually have larger
positions in altcoins than in Bitcoin.
So, even if Bitcoin were to go up to
like 150K, a lot of retail investors
aren't going to care because they don't
actually own Bitcoin, right? They want
to see their altcoins go up. I I think
one of the things that you're watching
right now or that's worth watching is
Ethereum because what I've sort of
thought for a while is that in order to
get an alt season like what people
remember as alt season back in like late
2017, late 2021 is you need Ethereum to
really durably break to new all-time
highs, right? I think that's what you
need. And I I said for a while that the
path for Ethereum to get there this
cycle is that, you know, it would first
go to its lower regression band, right,
which it did back in April. Um, then it
would go to new all-time highs, but on
the first attempt of the all-time highs,
it would actually get rejected. And I I
think that's what's causing that all see
those all season calls to remain
premature is because you're still not
looking at an Ethereum that is
sustaining new all-time highs,
right? Um, you could still see Ethereum
wick above 5K, but I I still am a strong
believer in the idea that until Ethereum
tags this 21week EMA, um, it could be
now uh, at 3,600 or it could be, you
know, 3 weeks from now at a higher
price, maybe closer to 4K. But I still
am a believer in the idea that you need
Ethereum to sort of check back in kind
of like it did over here in June, right?
You see how it checked back in with it
and then it just exploded higher.
I think ultimately that's what's going
to happen for Ethereum is at some point
over the next say 3 to 4 weeks
it will check in with that 20we SMA or
the 21week EMA and then go into its own
rally into the market cycle top. And by
the way the same thing has happened
every cycle right I mean look at 2021
Ethereum checked in with that that
moving average in September late or you
know late September early October. Same
thing in 2017. Also the same thing in
2020 in September. So that doesn't mean
that Bitcoin necessarily has to get as
large of a correction. I think Bitcoin
already did get a large I mean look at
Bitcoin. It already dropped to its
20week moving average, right? It already
dropped down there. Um but I I I think I
I think you're going to see Ethereum
eventually do the same thing. I think
it's going to scare some people and then
hopefully after that it can get a
stronger rally out of that. And then the
last thing I'll say uh before we go to
the next question is you know when you
look at Bitcoin dominance normally it
reverses course in the month of
September right so like if you look at
like September 2020 dominance was at the
same level and then it went up into Q4.
If you look at September and 2017
dominance also bottomed in September and
then went up into Q4. And so that's the
reason why I still think the alt season
calls are premature because I think
Bitcoin dominance is going to get
another rally here late September and
through the month of October. And so,
you know, if we get an alt season this
cycle, my guess is that it won't happen
until after October if we're going to
get one, right? I think it'll be after
October because again, I don't think you
can get an alt season without a durable
all-time high by Ethereum. And I don't
think you're going to get a durable
all-time high for Ethereum until, you
know, October, right? That So, that's
kind of the way I see things playing out.
out.
I I was looking at your ex account
earlier and I scrolled down. I think it
was like last week or something like
that. Maybe you you posted the the
Bitcoin dominance. I think it was like a
heat map or something like that. I don't
know if it's on coin glass, but I I
thought that it seemed like Bitcoin
dominance dropped in October typically.
So, yeah. So, it was on the website. So
monthly returns and basically the idea
is we're going to look at uh metrics. So
we're going to look at Bitcoin
dominance. So what you'll notice is in
in October Bitcoin dominance normally
goes up, right? So like in 2024
dominance went up 5%, 2023 dominance
went up 8%. So the average move of
Bitcoin dominance in October is about
5%. Um in fact dominance tends to go up
the most in the month of October.
Okay, that was That's that's November
then it's red, right?
It's November that it typically is red.
Okay. So, yeah. So, I'm looking for for
dominance to,
you know, really concretely form a low
in September and the low could very well
already be in um for dominance and then
for it to explode higher in October and
then I could see it then falling in in
the month of November.
So, so you're like, do you have any
other kind of
rationale behind the other than if it
ain't if it ain't broke, don't fix it
kind of logic for why we likely will
have, you know, the cycle come to an end
at the end of the year. Uh you got guys
like Ral Powell and Arthur Hayes talking
about how you know things like the
liquidity injection that's coming from
all the stimulus or from the increased
debt ceiling beautiful bill Fed cutting
rates you know over the next year these
kind of tailwinds that they believe
potentially would draw out the cycle in
2026. Um you don't see that happening.
Uh what are your thoughts there? So, I
mean, it's possible that uh certain
cryptocurrencies could go up in 2026.
Like, I mean, if you look at the 2017
cycle, Bitcoin topped in Q4, but
Ethereum actually did not top until
January of 2026. Uh, and then there were
altcoins that continued to do well even
through like April, you know, just like
last cycle, like we saw Luna doing
really, really well into 2022, but it
still I mean, it ended up, you know, we
know it eventually happened, right? Um,
so it's possible that some parts of the
market could do well uh even into 2026,
especially those that maybe didn't do as
well. You know, the the coins that were
um, you know, didn't really participate
as much so far. It's possible, but I I I
think there is a decent chance that the
top will occur um in 2025. If if it
doesn't, I'm fine with that. I mean,
normally what I do is I, you know, if if
I hold any altcoins, I at least
consolidate the altcoins back to Bitcoin
before the midterm year or sometime
early on in the midterm year because
even if I have to weather the Bitcoin
bare market, Bitcoin normally gets to
all-time highs before altcoins do. And
yeah, this cycle, you know, prove that
again. Um,
but I I think the reasoning for it like
if there could be a couple of things,
right? You know, one one reason could be
that longend rates like the long end of
the yield curve could go higher as we go
into 2026. And I think that could have
negative effects on the on the
cryptocurrency market. You know, if you
look at at the 10-year yield, um, it
really went up a lot after the Fed cut
rates last year. I think a lot of people
think that the Fed cutting rates means
that the long end goes down, but you
know, the Fed cut rates here in
September 2024 and right after that, the
long end, the 10-year yield went from
3.6% all the way up to um all the way up
to like 4.8. And I I think if the long
end my my base case for the 10-year is
that it's going to at least sweep that
high from October 2023
uh before the business cycle, you know,
potentially comes to an end. Um so that
could be one catalyst. The other thing
to to to watch out for and and it still
hasn't been an issue and it and it still
might not be uh but we saw the labor
market again we haven't really seen
layoffs pick up. Initial claims did go
up a little bit this past week but it's
just it's just one data point. Hopefully
that goes away um because going into you
know uh that type of move where you see
like layoffs picking up that's not fun
for anyone. No.
Um and that that would be kind of
brutal. But if you look, you know, if
you look at like the unemployment rate,
you can see that it it is starting to to
to move higher. And usually when when
the unemployment rate starts to move up,
that's when Bitcoin then pulls back
some, right? So, if you look at if you
were just like overlay Bitcoin uh with
the unemployment rate, you'll see that a
lot of the the longer consolidation
periods this cycle coincided to with it
to when um the unemployment rate was
heading higher because it was like that
uncertainty you could argue that that
sort of led to the some of those
pullbacks. So, if you look here, you can
see that the unemployment rate in 2024,
right, it started to go up right here.
Mhm. And that was when Bitcoin was, you
know, struggling, right? Um, and then
over here when the unemployment rate was
going up, that was when Bitcoin was
struggling a little bit. So, if the
unemployment rate starts to go higher in
2026, I I could see I could see that
being a thing. But remember, the good
news is that with dim even if we do have
a bare market next year, the good news
is that with diminishing returns
normally comes diminishing losses,
right? So the draw down, if there is
one, it shouldn't be as bad as prior
cycles. I mean, I'm expecting like I
would expect maybe like a 70% drop plus
or minus 5%. Um, and the reason I say
that is because if you just go through
all of the history of Bitcoin and that
could that's from whatever the top is,
right? I'm not saying it has to be from
that level today, right? The top is um
but you know, if you just go through the
history of these Bitcoin bare markets,
the first one was about a 94% draw down.
The next one was about 87%.
The next one was about 84 and then last
one was about 77. So you can see they're
getting a little bit more manageable. So
I like I would say maybe a 70% draw down
from whatever the all-time high ends up
being is is reasonable. Um again, does
it have to happen? No. But you know,
history would at least caution us to at
least believe that it might. I I heard
you mention the the business cycle and
you know one of the other uh guests that
I that uh was really big on that was uh
Henrik Zeberg uh when he he's really
kind of leaning into that. Uh you know
he thinks that um that's what he's
paying attention to thinking that we're
going to come into kind of an everything
bubble collapse in the next two months
or so. Um what what are your thoughts on
kind of the business cycle versus kind
of the four-year Bitcoin cycle?
Yeah, it's tough to time that stuff
because like, you know, you could have
you could have called for a recession
every year for the last four years and
it still hasn't happened, right? Um and
and and one of the indicators that would
even suggest that it could I mean, look,
it could happen in 2026. Like I'm not
going to say that it can't, but one of
the one of the really interesting
metrics this cycle has been the
comparisons with the dot era uh business
cycle. But not not necessar I mean
what's interesting is if you look at the
S&P 500 divided by the money supply,
this cycle is is mapping the dot cycle
perfectly. And it kind of makes sense
because you know during the dot era we
had internet companies. No one knew how
the internet was going to change
everything and now no one knows how AI
is going to affect everything but this
metric while I mean while comparing it
with the dot obviously sounds bad but I
mean like we know what ended up
happening but if you look at it you know
the move that the S&P divided by M2 had
starting from 1996
into the peak it's almost an identical
move like if you take it from the low
here right like even that 20% drop right
there is is is nearly identical right
like it's it's So you have you sort of
have this this move first, right? You
get that draw down and then you get so
that's like a 10% drop then you get the
20% drop, right? And that's what we got
in April, right? That's what that's what
sent Ethereum to the regression band.
Now if you look at this, you could see
how there could be a correction into
early 2026, right? because this here
would be early 2026, but there is a
chance that the music continues to play,
right, for for a while longer. And and
you know, maybe maybe the business cycle
doesn't actually end until say 2027 or
2028, right? Like no one actually knows.
Again, this this chart would suggest
that it could go on longer. So, if if
you made me if you made me play
Deadpool's advocate against the
four-year cycle, um I would say, well,
Bitcoin moves a lot closer with with,
you know, the NASDAQ and the S&P today
than it ever has in the past. Therefore,
maybe things could, you know, play out
differently. But I I feel like at the
current time, I'm going to have to just
go with look, you're probably going to
have a bare market for for crypto next
year. Um, if anything can hold on next
year and do well, it'll probably be
Bitcoin, right? Like if if you told me,
you know, if you could only pick one
cryptocurrency to do the best in 2026,
which one would it be? I'd probably say
Bitcoin. Yeah. Um,
Um,
so my strategy, what I would say is by,
you know, by the end of this year or
January at the absolute latest, history
would say it's a good idea to get out of
altcoins at least. Right. At least. And
that way, you know, if there is a
Bitcoin bare market, so be it. Um,
normally Bitcoin is able to get back up
to alltime highs first. So, yeah, like I
think the business cycle will come to an
end. Uh, my guess is it's going to
happen sometime,
you know, during the current
administration, right? That's my guess.
Like sometime over the next like three
three years or so. And I also don't
really see it as something necessarily
caused by the current administration. I
I think it's, you know, it's kind of
like all the money printing we had um
you know, last cycle like back in 2020,
you know, that led to inflation, right?
Like that that inflation was going to
happen no matter who took office in
2021, right?
But you could also now argue that the
unemployment rate going higher now or
going higher into 2026, like it was
always going to happen no matter who
took office, right? It's just a lot of
times administrations like to pass off
their problems to the next one, right?
Um, so yeah, I mean I do think the
business cycle will come to an end, but
u the the good news about business
cycles coming to an end is it's normally
like a like a 12 to 18month process,
right? So like when markets bottom, it's
an event, right? It's a it's a single
event. When markets top, it's a process,
right? It's a long process where we go
down, the bulls try again, and and we're
still not at the point where we're just
seeing we're not even seeing lower highs
yet, right? We're still at at all-time
highs. So, yeah, the business cycle is a
process. That's the at least the the the
way that you can try to stay optimistic
is to just remember that when things are
truly over. There likely will be signs
for months, right, of of the market
dropping and then lower highs because
the only way you go into the end of the
business cycle, right, where you get a
recession is to first start to see lower
asset prices that scare people, right?
That scare employers to then want to lay
people off. And that's the reason why,
you know, when the S&P dropped over here,
here,
a lot of people thought that was a
recession. But the reason it's not is
because asset prices recovered. I even
made a video on it at the time. I said,
"Look guys, if asset prices recover back
up to all-time highs within a couple of
months, like they did in 1998, then
you're still not going to have a
recession, right? The way you have a
recession is you get lower asset prices
that don't recover, right? So, it's it's
one of those things where like everyone
wants to be the hero and call for the
top and call for the recession, but
until asset prices start durably going
down, it's hard to actually have a
recession, right? Because the incentives
to lay people off just aren't
necessarily there yet. And and and and
that's not just my opinion. I mean,
like, look at look at layoffs, right? I
know people think this is a bad labor
market and and and hires are down, but
the the layoffs are still if anything
they're still below the preandemic
levels, you know,
um so the right now the labor market is
still holding up, but within, you know,
within another year or two at some point
things have got to start breaking down.
That makes sense. Uh
do you I I've seen people recently
calling for kind of the next rotation
from ETH to other majors. Do you think
that we're at that point yet?
So I I think I think people are missing
a step. I I think so it was it was first
it was Bitcoin to ETH. Right. So and and
and when Ethereum went to its regression
band back in April, that was the time to
trade things in for Ethereum because you
can actually see that altcoins bled over
50% against Ethereum after that after
Ethereum went down to $1,300 $1,400 back
in April. So that was your sort of
Ethereum season. Now, right now, you're
getting you sort of got a taste of what
an alt season might be like where you're
starting to see alts rally against
Ethereum, but the only reason they're
rallying against Ethereum right now is
because usually after, you know, after
Ethereum sweeps a prior high, um it or
not just Ethereum, just when assets
sweep a prior high, they can then
correct for a little bit, you know, a
little bit like a few weeks, sometimes a
few months. Um and and you're seeing
alts rally against Ethereum. What I
think people are missing right now when
you know they keep calling for all
season. I I think they're missing an
intermediate rotation back to Bitcoin
first, right? So it was Bitcoin only
basically until April because Bitcoin
dominance was just going up, right? It
really went up until June, but Ethereum
bottomed in April against Bitcoin. Um so
it was basically Bitcoin only then
Bitcoin and Ethereum since April and
then I think a lot of people think it's
alt season now, but I don't think it's
alt season until Ethereum puts in
durable all-time highs. And I don't
think it's going to do that until
October at the earliest, which means
that we're not witnessing a rotation
right now to the other majors. We're
witnessing a rotation back to Bitcoin.
And it should be a timely rotation
because we already saw that October is
normally the best month for Bitcoin
dominance, right? October is the best
month. We've seen dominance bottom in
September like five or six of the years
that Bitcoin do that that we've even
tracked this stuff. Um, so I think there
that rotation will likely come, but I
think people are off by about two months
on on that call. I think we're going to
first get a Bitcoin rotation back. That
rotation will probably last us for the
rest of this month and then through all
of October. Um, and then maybe early
November, but by the time you're getting
to mid November, you probably get that
rotation you talked about. So,
So,
how are you currently positioned
yourself in your portfolio from Bitcoin
and altcoins and ETH to majors?
So, I if you look at like this modern
portfolio theory stuff and and you want
to like maximize your risk adjusted
returns, generally speaking, you know,
to maximize your ratio, you're looking
around 83% Bitcoin, 17% ETH, right? So,
about 8020 uh plus or minus I think is
the way to go. that way. Um, if you
know, especially right now because if if
you're banking on Bitcoin dominance
going up again, which is what I think is
going to happen, it makes sense to have
most of your crypto portfolio in
Bitcoin, right? Because it's lower risk
than alts and it should outperform most
of them uh for the next 6 weeks. uh but
about 20% into ETH because while I do
think it it's going to struggle against
Bitcoin for maybe a few more weeks from
as measured from now until the end of
the cycle Ethereum will likely
outperform Bitcoin right from as
measured from now until the end even
though I expect weakness through the
month of October for the ETH Bitcoin
pair. So I think right now about an 80
20% 80 to 20% split Bitcoin and ETH
makes the most amount of sense. If you
are going to go into altcoins right now,
I would still keep it a relatively low
amount. Um, just because I see that
rotation back to Bitcoin coming.
And so then would you say that I mean
for you or uh just generally speaking,
do you think then kind of at the end of
October would be the good time to start
rotating into kind of alts or majors?
Well, it depends on what your unit of
account is, right? I mean, and this is
where I get into trouble with people is
because a lot of people will sit there
with cash and they'll hear me say like,
"Oh, Ben says don't get into altcoins."
But what I'm actually saying is being in
Bitcoin makes more sense, right? So, if
you account US dollars and you want to
get into altcoins, I think just DCA,
right, is the way. It's it's kind of
foolish to try to time the market too
much because no one can really time the
market in my opinion. Um, but if if your
unit of account is Bitcoin, that's been
a lot easier to track this cycle, right?
It's been a lot easier to just know when
Bitcoin tends to outperform. So, if
you're looking to rotate, then I would
say stay with Bitcoin for now. Um, and
then maybe early November rotate. But
that's it. That's if your unit account's
Bitcoin. If your unit account is US
dollars, like, you know, I think DCA is
the way.
Do you do you have any idea uh
potentially how high the total market
cap might go and uh this this uh cycle?
Any theories on that?
Um that's a good question. Uh let me
see. I I haven't really looked at a
whole lot. Um
I guess if you kind of extend this out.
I mean, I think I, you know, someone
asked me this like a week or two ago,
and I I feel like, you know, 5 to 6
trillion is obtainable. Um, you know,
you would essentially need to have
Bitcoin at all-time highs, Ethereum
participating, and and altcoins starting
to participate. If you look at like last
cycle and you look at this like fib
extension uh from the top, you know, you
can see that we rallied up to the 4.236
um from the cycle before. So, if you if
you kind of extend that out, you can see
that the 1.61 618. We're getting
relatively close to it. That would
correspond to about 4.5 trillion or so.
Maybe about 4.4. Uh so there's a decent
chance we'll we'll reach that. The next
level is a 2.618, which is all the way
up at, you know, just over 6 trillion.
Unfortunately, with diminishing returns,
you normally won't go to sort of the
extension that you got the last cycle.
So I do not think we will make it to the
4.236 this cycle, uh which would be
about 10 trillion. But I do think the
asset class will make it to 10 trill,
you know, will make it to 10 trillion. I
just don't know if it's going to happen
this cycle or not, right? Like we might
have to wait until next we might, you
know, we might get close um and then
maybe we get our 2026 bare market and
then maybe then we go up to uh you know
10 trillion by 2028 or something, right?
Like I don't know. I think we are going
to 10 trillion. It's just like when's it
going to happen? I don't One of the
reasons why it's hard for it to again
anything's possible. One of the reasons
it's hard for it to happen this cycle is
because arguably if it is a four-year
cycle, we only have three and a half
more months, right? So,
the market really needs to start moving
if it's going to happen. I'm not It's
not that it can't, it could. It It's
just like we haven't we would have to
start doing something that we haven't
really done this cycle, and that's just
go parabolic, right? Like Bitcoin hasn't
really done that um as much this cycle.
It's been more of a slow prog I mean,
look at look at this cycle compared to
last cycle, right? where it was
basically just up only.
Yeah. Crazy.
Yeah. And I So, like anything's
possible. So, I don't want to say it
can't happen, but like look at to give
you an idea of what I mean like when I'm
looking at total market cap, look at
Bitcoin and you can kind of you can kind
of look at the same idea. Like if you
look at the first cycle, um you can see
that we went way above, right? Like way
above any extensions. But then if you go
to like the next cycle, still above it.
Next cycle we hit the uh we hit the
3.618, right? So, it it got lower than
the cycle before that. And then this
cycle, uh, we're already, you know,
obviously we've already broken a new
all-time high. So, um, you know, we've
already passed the 1.618. So, the next
level, so I would say for Bitcoin, we're
probably not going to the 3.618.
Probably not, cuz that's where that's
where we were last cycle, and we would
expect some form of of diminishing returns,
returns,
you know. Is the 2.618 possible? Yeah,
like that's possible. Where does that
put us at for Bitcoin?
About 150, you know, plus or minus about
150. I mean, again, it's not like it has
to happen, but it is possible. And the
way I would play this is, you know, I I
I am just more so looking at like risk
metrics and like volatility and and
euphoria. We're not really in that right
now. Like, we're not really seeing
euphoria. The fear and greed index is is
I think it's kind of low right now. Um,
if you look at uh fear and greed, it's
it can't be that high. Yeah, I mean,
it's neutral right now. it's only at 53.
Um, and then of course if you look at at
some of the risk stuff, you can see that
we're not we're not really in the
euphoric times. No.
No.
Um, but so here's how I would play it,
right? We have about three and a half
more months um historically of of
potentially good price action. It could
the market cycle could end as early, you
know, as October uh or as late as
December is kind of how I see it.
Sometime between October and December. I
would like I think it makes sense to
start becoming cautious once we get into
Q4. Um, and if and if it's like if it's
mid December and Bitcoin and the
euphoria still hasn't returned, then I
would start to question if it's going
to, right?
But at this point, like there's still a
chance that it might come back. Um, and
remember, you know, it's still it has
this entire cycle, it's paid to be
optimistic. As long as we've continued
our weekly closes above the 50we moving
average. Historically, once you get
those closes below the 50we, it means
the cycle is over, right? It means the
cycle is over. And every single time, we
have not had that yet this cycle. Now,
the 50we moving average is currently at
around $98,000. So, you know, I will
still lean optimistic and and call for
the, you know, for for for Bitcoin
season and whatnot, as long as we're
above that 50we estimate, but whenever
we drop below it on weekly closes, I
think it makes sense to to pivot quickly
and say, look, that could be it. And we
need to prepare for the bare market when
that happens. But we haven't seen it
yet. We've had a couple of close calls,
right? We had one in uh September 2024.
We had one in April. I even think I
wasn't I on your channel.
Yeah. Um, and I think I said like as
long as we hold the 2024 high, we should
go to new all-time highs on on this
drop. And so now we're kind of seeing
something similar, right, where we're
trying to hold these highs, right? We're
trying to hold the the the January highs
um as support. And as long as those
hold, then we should go to new all-time
highs. Uh, once again, I just think that
we're going through this brutal
September month. And normally in the
month of September, Bitcoin just tries
to hold the 20week moving average,
right? You can look at 2020. You know,
2020 is actually a really a really close
carbon copy of what we've seen so far.
Like look at the the pattern, right? You
have a low in in Q1. You go up and then
you go sideways until the 21week EMA
catches up. Then you pop up, go
sideways, and then back down. And then
you test that 20we SMA for the entire
month of September. Right? So it's the
same thing, right? You have a low in in
in the Q1, early Q2. you go up, then you
go sideways until the 21 EMA catches up.
Up, sideways, back down. So, I think
right now we're we're basically in this area,
area,
right? We're in that area. So, I think
Bitcoin I mean, obviously investors are
hopeful that we're going to coil up and
go into the final rally into the market
cycle top.
But I will say like it it it
that I think that should be the base
case, right? Absolutely that should be
the base case. But if that actually
starts to happen, just remember the top
could occur at any moment, right? Cuz no
one's going to tell like no one's going
to be like this is the top, you know,
like everyone's just going to be
euphoric if we start to see a move up.
And so what I what I started looking at
a little closer recently just because
we've started to, you know, we started
to get um
closer potentially to the end, as you
look at like the ROI from the low, you
can see we're currently on day 1,041
of the cycle. Um last cycle ended on day
1,059 which is only wow
wow
18 days but the cycle before that ended
on day 1,067
right which that would that that would
put you closer to midocctober. So I
would say look by midocctober we at
least have to ask ourselves could that
be it
and and if it is who knows and the other
thing too is in terms of like patterns
and whatnot Bitcoin tends to repeat patterns
patterns
there's two ways you can look at this
right you can say all right well in 2017
it was a December top in 2021 it was a
November top maybe this one is an
October top right so we go December
November October every cycle that comes
one month earlier just to throw people
off. But the counterpoint to that is the
cycle before was November. So maybe it
just goes November, December, November,
December. Structurally speaking, there
are a lot of similarities between this
cycle and the 2017 cycle. We even have
the same president, right? I mean, Trump
was also president in in 2017. Um so
good chance you'll see a top either
October or December. Um would be my
guess. And the way it would work out is
if it's an October top, then you would
then you could have an uh a November alt
season, right?
If it if it's a December top, then what
will happen is you'll get another you'll
get one more fake alt season before the
real one, right? Um and that's
essentially what happened uh in 2017.
Like if you look at Bitcoin dominance in
2017, you can see the narrative exactly
how it played out. Like you see how
dominance um rallied, right? It it it
bottomed in September and then it
rallied into late October and then you
had a massive move down by dominance in
the first week of November and everyone
thought it was all season. I know cuz I
I did too. Um and then you still have
had one more Bitcoin dominance rally, right?
right?
And then you finally had the top end. So
for again for everyone who's who wants
alt season to happen remember the the
the better alt seasons come you know
normally closer to the end of the year
and then also the they come from higher
Bitcoin dominance levels right like the
higher dominance is the better the alt
season that you can get. Um
Um
so I would say you know you'll either
you you probably will see dominance drop
a lot in November. I think I think
dominance will be green in September. So
it should be green this month. It'll go
up a lot in October. It'll drop a lot in
November. And if if the top if the cycle
top for Bitcoin is in October, that's
all we get, right? And we just we you
know, we're happy that it happened and
we move on to the next cycle. If we can
get one more dominance rally, uh it's
possible for it to go up one final time
in early December. But even if it does
go up in early December, I still think
dominance will probably drop by then. uh
because even if even if dominance
rallies for like the first week or two
of December, it'll probably drop for the
rest of December.
So that's kind of how I see the cycle
playing out. And then if it does play
out like that, then it just kind of
nicely sets up the uh you know a 2026
bare market. We consolidate, we get all
the crap out, all the fluff, and we
repeat our cycle in 2027.
What do you What are the kind of things?
you know, we've gotten kind of the
assumption that potentially the cycle
tops out in either October or December,
but what are you going to be looking at
the closest to try to, you know, try to
figure out either consolidate back into
Bitcoin or, you know, take profits into
stable coin and and actually if you get
a good hunch or a feeling or your data
tells you that you believe that the
cycle is coming to an end, how are you
going to play that? Are you going to
take profits into stable coin or going
to go into Bitcoin or what? I would
consolidate altcoins back into Bitcoin,
right? So, like if you own altcoins, if
you own Ethereum, you know, by the end
of the year or early 2026, I would I
would go back to Bitcoin at the very
least. Um, I do think it makes sense to
have at least 30% cash going into the
uh, you know, going into the midterm
year in case it does end up being a bare
market. You at least want to have
something to be able to buy the dip
with. Um, I'm using this like this is a
risk level for Bitcoin. It's pretty
neutral right now. Uh, you know, it's
between 0.5 and 6 risk. So, normally
this spikes and when it spikes it sets
up the market cycle top and then the
bare market happens. That hasn't
happened yet this cycle. Um, you know,
the best time for it to happen would be
in Q4, right? Uh, so if it happens in
Q4, then um that'll make it really easy
because if we if we start screaming
higher in Q4 for me, it'll just be
simple like, all right, this time's not
different. I'll just I'll take profits
back to stables uh and and you know
maybe wait until mid 2026 to get
interested again, right?
right?
What's going to be harder is if it
doesn't spike, right? And and it just
kind of kind of like you see this like
move in 2019 where like the risk went up
uh but then it ended up going back all
the way down because we went into a
recession, you know?
Um like that would be the harder pill to
swallow and I I'm not really prepared to
swallow that pill right now. I feel like
I feel like there's still reason to
again there's still reason to be
optimistic as long as Bitcoin is holding
those prior highs, as long as we're
above the 50we SMA and as long as we're
still looking at, you know, potentially
Bitcoin dominance surging in October. It
it seems reasonable to hope for another
surge by the risk metric to the upside.
Where it becomes tricky is if we're
sitting here in mid December and we're
still at 0.5 risk, right? You know, what
happens then? Like then do we does
everyone just give up and say, "All
right, it wasn't meant to be this
cycle." uh do your friends get it right
and and that that are calling for a a
longer cycle in the 2026, right? Maybe
that's what has to happen is everyone
gives up and and then you finally get
the spike to the higher risk levels. But
for me personally, I use the risk
metric. If we're still not spiking to
the higher risk levels by the end of the
year, I would probably have to assume
that uh you know something is keeping
that from happening, right? And already
I mean already with diminishing returns
like we've seen much lower returns this
cycle. I mean to give you an idea of
just how muted these returns have been. Mhm.
Mhm.
Look at uh look at 2017. So the low from
2017 cuz Bitcoin also had a correction
in 2017 where it tested the 2016 high,
right? Um or sorry, I'm looking at the uh
uh here
here
is 2016 high. So the 2016 high is right
here, right? So in early 2017, you see
how Bitcoin got the same correction and
tested it. um just like we did this
cycle where Bitcoin tested uh the 2024
high in 2025, right? So, very similar
setup, but what's what's different is
that the rally from that low into the
August top for Bitcoin back in 2017, it
was over a 500% rally, right? It was a
540% rally, but from this low into the
August top, it was only like a a 60%
rally, right? So, it's, you know, you're
looking at basically an an entire order
of magnitude difference um
in in the in the level of the rally that
we got. And that's kind of like just
like a a sobering smack in the face, I
guess, um to just realize, you know,
just how how how how different that's
been. So, everyone's waiting on a
similar move and it and it very well
could happen, right? Like it it
certainly still could. I'm just saying
if it doesn't happen by the end of the
year, then I feel like me and I I have
to assume some other people too would
start to wonder if it's actually going
to this cycle or not.
You know what I was just thinking about
that's um I think a lot different about
this cycle too is just uh maybe another
reason it feels a little bit more boring
to is that we haven't really had you
know all these kind of 30 to 40%
pullbacks that we've had in previous
cycles, right? like we're getting like
on Bitcoin at least as far as it's
concerned we getting like 10 15 maybe
20% max pullbacks we haven't seen like
any of these 40% pullbacks right
I think the largest we had was over here
and it was it was barely a 30% drop you
want to see an interesting chart
actually I think you might like this
chart because you because that was a
really good point uh days we're let's
look at days since Bitcoin had a a 50%
drop right what what cycle What does
this look like? It looks like the 2016
2017 cycle, right? Yeah.
Yeah.
Like because that's the only other cycle
where Bitcoin went over a,000 days
without a 50% drop, right? And it looks
like that's what we're potentially
coming into here.
How many days?
Well, right now it's been 1,041.
Um, in 2017
it topped, you know, the the market
cycle topped on basically a d a day
1,070. So about it again it puts us in
October. Um, but then the the drop, the
50% drop didn't happen until, you know,
until uh a little bit later on, like a
few months later, like it took until I
think, you know, 2018 until you actually
had the 50% drop, but the top occurred
sooner than that, right? So, you know,
we're coming up on that in about a
month, right? Midocctober.
That's why for me, like once we get to
mid-occtober, like I have to force
myself to think maybe that's it, right?
Even though I don't want it to be, I
have to force myself as early as
mid-occtober to think maybe that's it.
Hopefully, we get another move in
December. We have to take it one step at
a time.
Ben, all of these charts, everything
that you've been showing us so far has
all been in your into the cryptoverse
kind of toolkit, right?
Yeah. Yeah, we got a lot of charts over there.
there.
For for folks who uh just maybe you
could just uh do a a shameless plug real
quick and let people know because it's
like all very fascinating stuff. And so
if someone's watching this and wants to
know how to get access to all of these
and how to use everything that you've
been showing us, how do they do that?
Yeah, just go into the cryptoverse.com.
I also talk a lot about it just on my uh
my channel uh
you know just after my name, Benjamin
Cowen. Um but yeah, I mean like and and
we have a free tier as well where people
can get access to a lot of the charts
for free. I mean, not all of them, of
course, but we also have um I don't
really talk a whole lot about altcoins,
like you know, I just I more so focus on
the majors like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and
whatnot. I don't really got on the list,
but we do have this like asset filter
where, you know, you can go in here and
and pick different different altcoins um
to basically look at and and if you do
that, it'll then pull up the uh the
charts that we have just for that
altcoin, right? So, you know, if if
there are some altcoins that you're
interested in, that is at least one way
you can get some data behind it. But,
you know, for for me, I feel like the
longer you're in the cycles, the more
you just sort of defer towards, you
know, towards Bitcoin to be completely honest.
honest.
May maybe you could just pull up
something on Salana real quick and show
us a little bit about like how that
would work because uh I'm doing a show
on Salana soon and um and just, you
know, there's a lot of talk about the
ETFs. You just had that digital asset
treasury company buy like 1.6 6 billion
on it. And so there just it seems to be
kind of on the timeline.
Here's like yeah, here's like the Salana
running one-year ROI, right? Here's a
here's a good um a nice chart. If you
look at I think we have a risk metric
for Salana uh as well.
So the the risk metric for Salana right
now is about 695, right? So it's
getting, you know, it's getting up
there. It's not like as high as it was
last cycle. Um, but it's pretty it's
pretty elevated, but again, it's not as
elevated as some of other things we've
seen. XRP was a coin that, you know, I
think it keeps if people keep thinking
it's going to go like I I see all these
like crazy price predictions,
but you know, it is already in the 7 to
point8 wristband. It doesn't mean it
can't go higher. It could, but just know
that if it gets that final spike up like
it did all these other cycles, that's
probably it, right? So,
you could see how we could put a bow on
the cycle for a lot of these altcoins,
even for Ethereum, right? you can see
how we could put a bow on it. Just get
that final spike up to the higher
wristbands and let's just call it a day,
you know, let's enjoy 2026 doing our our
other hobbies and we'll come back at the
end this whole thing, right?
So I Yeah, I mean I I feel like you
could visualize how the cycle might end. Um
Um
it's just a matter of of of does it play
out between now and and the rest of the year.
year.
Yeah. All right, Ben. Uh amazing. Thank
you so much for for everything. Uh
really fascinating and helps a lot. I've
been uh been wanting to get my my
audience up to date on some technicals
and see how things are playing out, get
a different perspective from the other
mega bulls who are looking at
fundamentals and just have a sense
check, reality check here.
Yeah. No, thanks for having me. A
pleasure to be here as always. Um and
hopefully we can catch up again in a few months.
months.
Sure. Thanks, Ben.
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