The content analyzes the geopolitical impact of a hypothetical war involving Iran, predicting significant market shifts and offering investment strategies focused on post-war recovery and emerging technological trends like AI.
Mind Map
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Hello everyone, a month ago
I analyzed in detail
why Hassan Rouhani is doomed for sure
and I firmly bought more when it was falling
Everything has come true these days
Hassan Rouhani and the top officials of Iran were all taken down
The gold ETF GDX surged to an all-time high
The defense ETF PPA SHLD also performed well
I took profits on most positions yesterday
Gold and gold mining ETFs
Feeling great!
I'm ready to start laying out a better board after the war.
Next, I'll tell you all about it.
If you like what I'm doing,
for friends who stick with me for wealth-building ideas,
please take a moment to subscribe and like.
Important reminder:
This video is my personal investment notes,
not investment advice.
The stocks and ETFs I've chosen.
All come through deep thinking
and logical reasoning.
I hope you watch my video to the end,
and then conduct in-depth research based on your own situation.
Now quickly review the war situation,
which is very important for our next investment direction.
February 28th weekend,
Hassan Rouhani and almost all top Iranian officials
were killed in the epic wrath of the US-Israel joint forces.
Afterwards, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard
entered a frenzy of doomsday mode
where mid-level officers followed the default plan
and started indiscriminately launching missiles
causing chaos.
As a result, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE,
Saudi Arabia, and others
almost all Gulf countries
were attacked by Iran.
Britain, France, and Germany have declared war.
And Saudi Arabia is ready to beat up Iran
Saudi Arabia is Sunni
In fact, they are archenemies with Iran
So to make money from this war
We must focus on a key variable
which is when the war will end
This timing is crucial
Why? Because if the war ends early
like in two or three weeks, then gold
oil, defense, and other sectors will quickly decline
But if the war continues for two or three months,
or even half a year,
then this issue will become quite complicated.
The military-industrial energy sector may continue to soar,
but other sectors will be particularly hard hit.
Because of the persistently high oil prices,
inflation will be ignited.
There is no hope for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve,
all growth stocks and tech stocks will plummet significantly.
So when will this war approximately end?
Just decided directly
When do we re-enter asset allocation
Trump said it's basically 4 weeks
Secretary of State Pompeo and Defense Secretary Esper
mentioned in the press conference
The strategic goal of the United States
is to destroy all of Iran's ballistic missiles
and weapons production capability
including naval forces and facilities
As for whether to overthrow the Iranian regime
They consider it a byproduct
The key is still the Iranian people
Now Iran says
The Strait of Hormuz has been completely closed
While the US claims the Iranian navy has been wiped out
Everyone don't need to worry
But the current oil tankers
Are actually outside the Strait of Hormuz
Dare not enter
The main reason is
Now the world's major insurance companies
don't let them pass
you could do it yourself in the past
but if something happens
the insurance company won't cover it
and just now the news
Middle Eastern oil tankers heading to Asia have oil prices
of $450,000 per day
the South Korean stock market, which focuses on high-tech manufacturing
The market dropped by 6% in the morning.
Japan fell by 3%.
This indicates a high level of panic in the market.
They don't know when the war will end.
How long will it continue?
How long can the Hormuz Strait be closed?
However, based on some other news speculations,
it is also possible that this war will end in 4 to 6 weeks.
Mainly involving the UK, France, Germany, and Saudi Arabia,
as well as the Gulf countries.
The US is now using war AI in combat.
Once Iran's missile launch vehicle fires a missile,
the US satellite AI will track their trajectory.
F35 B2 bombers will then directly eliminate them.
The AI industry chain,
which I will mention later,
is an important investment target.
Everyone, pay attention.
AI can help the US military eliminate terrorists,
but it can also be used by bad actors.
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So when will the war end now
It's a very big uncertainty
If the war continues to escalate
In addition, Iran's territory is too large
Unable to timely eliminate the missile launch vehicles hidden in the mountains
This ultimately leads to the closure of the Hormuz Strait
for several weeks
or even more than a month,
which would result in a global increase in oil prices.
This would be followed by a rise in prices in the United States,
shattering expectations of an interest rate cut.
The US dollar index rises, while gold falls.
So, everyone, pay attention:
Gold prices may also fall now,
as a short-term hedge.
But in the long run,
once the US dollar raises interest rates,
it won't be hedged anymore.
So in the worst case scenario,
trending upwards,
which may continue for a few weeks until the end of the war,
followed by a spike and then a drop.
trending upwards,
which may continue for a few weeks until the end of the war,
followed by a spike and then a drop.
So if you join now
the risk may be higher
Regarding gold,
I am optimistic in the long run,
but this time the war pushed the gold ETF,
GDX, to its peak early,
and the gold ETF, GLD, has already risen significantly.
The war premium in the market has been exhausted.
So on Monday, I sold a portion,
holding cash and watching the situation.
When the stocks plummet,
buy various very cheap stocks that have plummeted.
This is the most exciting part.
Now, the most crucial thing is,
if we don't know now
when the war will end,
how should we invest?
Let me show you a chart.
This is the Pearl Harbor Bay battle after World War II,
following the Iraq War and the Afghanistan War.
The trend of the US S&P
These charts illustrate
The US stock market after the war
They all rise
And they rise more fiercely than before
This is the post-war reconstruction period
Since 1950
Major geopolitical conflicts of the S&P 500
In the following 12 months
The average increase is 9%
This is because after each war ends,
the world enters a new cycle of
restructuring infrastructure and supply chains.
The conclusion is,
whenever a war ends,
the United States and Iran will eventually reach an agreement.
Once the agreement is reached,
the US stock market will take off.
For those new friends who haven't entered the market before,
your opportunity has arrived.
And the masters who have already entered
are now waiting for the right time to sweep goods.
My strategy is to divide the funds into 3-5 parts.
Take one step at a time.
Look at the extent of the market's decline.
Buy slowly.
When others are in fear, you don't buy.
Wait until everyone is not afraid,
then you will miss your chance.
It must be a violent rebound.
I speculate myself
This war probably won't last long
Because Iran now has no navy
No air force
And these missile launchers
Are already under surveillance by the US war AI satellite
Being destroyed one by one
Once Iran loses most of its missile launch capability
The Strait of Hormuz will be open
Then the rebound of the US stock market will be even more intense
And this rebound,
It will overlay two super trends,
One is post-war reconstruction,
The other set,
Is the AI infrastructure I mentioned before,
Grid upgrades,
Key minerals, oil, natural gas,
The restructuring of this energy supply chain,
So,
The logical chain of thought I'm considering is like this.
The war ends and the risk aversion subsides.
Funds will flow out of these oil defense sectors.
Gold will also flow out.
Then flow back into AI chips, AI infrastructure, and electric power sectors.
Copper mining, public utility infrastructure, and so on.
These sectors are all supported by real fundamentals.
They are all profitable.
And they are consistently profitable.
Not speculative trading.
Okay, the logic is clear now.
Our investment direction after this war can be divided into two categories.
Stable type and aggressive type.
For those who are older or have lower risk tolerance,
stable type players can invest in ETFs.
Mainly investing in industries that AI cannot change
and industries urgently needed for the development of AI infrastructure in the United States.
The first one is the public utility ETF XLU.
This is a collection of power companies.
No matter who fights,
who builds data centers,
this electricity will be used.
And in the next three years, the United States will experience a severe shortage of electricity.
Public utilities perform well in a period of declining interest rates
and in a hedging environment.
The performance is good.
The dividend is around 2.8-3% every year.
The second one is the infrastructure ETF PAVE.
This covers
companies related to infrastructure construction in the United States,
including bridges, highways, grid upgrades,
water conservancy construction, and so on.
Both parties in the United States
have consensus on infrastructure investment.
Whoever becomes president will promote it.
The third one to consider is the copper mining ETF,
such as COPX.
J.P. Morgan predicts
Global refined copper deficit of 330,000 tons in 2026
The main demand for copper comes from AI data centers
Triple overlay of electric vehicle, power grid, and infrastructure
Many people have left me messages
Saying they want to create
An investment portfolio that can be left unattended
Don't forget the core of this portfolio
It's SPY VOO
Index funds like QQQ are essential choices
You can also add AI to it.
Semiconductor index SMH
Recently, the big drop is all opportunities.
After configuring the ETF,
you should also allocate some individual stocks.
Individual stocks have the largest fluctuations,
but the returns will also be higher.
AI is a major direction,
and this time the war
has already taken Anthropics' Claude.
XAI has turned into military-industrial stocks
So this rebound PLTR is very impressive
Rose 6% in a single day
Breakthrough with high volume
But stocks that rise sharply like this will also fall sharply
My style is more conservative
I like to make money slowly
Continuously making money
So I choose the more stable direction
This is the infrastructure direction of AI
NVIDIA has recently dropped nearly 10%
But there are no issues with the financial report
And the current valuation of NVIDIA
is even cheaper than before
So I will buy again in batches
The same logic applies to Google
To increase positions in the energy sector, the leader is GEV
There is also oil and natural gas
The leader in power infrastructure construction
A company called PWR provides comprehensive services
When they build infrastructure, they need to use copper wire.
Copper wire means buying Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO).
Now AI construction has another hot sector.
That is photovoltaic modules.
Some small and medium-sized stocks double in just a few weeks.
It's very scary.
I prefer stability.
I like medium and large companies.
So I have my eye on a stock.
It's Corning Incorporated (GLW).
You all know Corning, right?
It supplies screens to Apple and Samsung.
It's also one of the world's largest fiber optic manufacturers.
With a history of 170 years.
The moat is very deep.
Manufactured in the United States.
If Corning pulls back,
I will continue to buy.
My logic is that the market is not afraid of war,
What the market fears is uncertainty.
Once the direction of the war is clear
the market will start pricing in post-war recovery
Hopefully this moment will come soon
End the war quickly
Of course, I must give everyone a risk warning
I didn't say today or tomorrow
You buy all at once
Because no one knows when the war will end
How much will the entire stock market fall
I don't know either
The future is a kind of quantum physics
a superposition state
that no one can see clearly
But as I said before
the direction will not change
After the war
SPY, S&P 500, QQQ
they will all rise significantly
and a drop is an opportunity
The key is to have cash flow
Keep having spare money to continuously buy low
So never go all in
Lastly, what I want to say is
Truly smart people
will research the directions I talked about on their own
and wait for the best timing to slowly buy in
instead of coming in to criticize like some netizens
I said a month ago that Hassan Rouhani would be finished
Need to allocate to gold
Need to allocate to defense stocks
How many people were there in the comment section spraying me at that time?
Now, isn't it all being refuted?
I welcome rational and logical debates.
This way, we can learn from each other.
We can complement each other, right?
But I don't welcome illogical mutual spraying.
Moreover, when I talk about these things, you are not willing to listen.
You usually chat with a financial advisor once.
The fees are in the hundreds or thousands of dollars.
Subscribing to investment bank research reports for a year costs over 2000 dollars.
I'm now giving everyone a free lecture
Still free of charge
So your subscription and likes
are my greatest support
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Alright, thank you everyone
See you next time
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