This content argues that the US will ultimately lose a war against Iran, not due to conventional military or economic factors, but because of the "law of asymmetry," which suggests that underdogs with specific qualities can overcome stronger adversaries by exploiting the inherent weaknesses of empires.
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We continue our discussion of the US
Iran war that is happening right now.
So, um
as you know, I made a prediction that
the United States will lose this war.
And last class, we did an overview
of the military and strategic position.
And today, we're going to provide some
theoretical framework for how to understand
understand
how this war will progress and why
ultimately I believe the United States
will lose this war.
Today, I present to you a very important
idea in game theory.
And once you understand this idea, you understand
understand
why things will turn out the way they
do. Okay? It's called a law of
asymmetry. Okay? Law of
of asymmetry.
And all this is saying is that
the United States and Iran are not
peers. They're not equals.
United States is far stronger
than Iran. And we should expect the
United States to overwhelm and destroy
Iran really easily.
But the law of asymmetry states that
that's usually not the case. It's
usually the underdog
that has the advantage.
And we see this from history all the time.
time.
Okay? So, when the Persians in about 490
BC invaded mainland Greece against
Athens and Sparta,
Persia at this time at that time was the
first world empire. It had infinite
resources, infinite manpower, infinite
wealth, and it lost to the Greeks not
once but twice.
And and then, the Macedonians under
Alexander the Great, and they were like
a tribal army, not a very large army.
They were able to go into Persia, and
Persia at the at the time was basically
most of Eurasia and conquered [snorts]
in about 10 years time.
The Romans started off as a tribal people,
people,
which then built the Mediterranean empire.
empire.
Then you have the Aztecs, you have So,
the Vikings. So, this happens a lot in
human history.
A people in the borderlands, a tribe, a
small ethnicity, are able to conquer a
great empire. And the law of asymmetry
tells us why, okay? So, I'm going to go
over uh very slowly in detail how this
law of asymmetry works. >> [snorts]
>> [snorts]
>> All right.
So, um
And there are three major advantages to
an empire.
All right, the first is mass.
This is means that they have a lot of
people, okay? They almost have an
infinite amount of people. The United
States has a population of about 350
million people, but remember, the United
States can also draw on the populations
of its allies, which includes the Five
Eyes, the Anglosphere, but it also
includes Europe. It also includes uh
uh
East Asia, South Korea, Japan, basically wherever
wherever
the markets have a military base.
All right, so most of the world are
either allies of the United States or
vassals of the United States. So, the
United States can basically draw on in
billions and billions of people for its
wars, okay? So, it's mass.
ORGANIZATION JUST MEANS a hierarchy of
bureaucracy and elite that allows you to organize
organize
your resources and your people in order
to generate wealth, which is basically
science and technology, okay? Science
and technology.
Which leads to the most advanced
weaponry, okay? So, think about the
United States, how they fight this war.
They have these satellites that provide
for precision targeting. They have these
airplanes, these B-2 bombers, F-15s that
are the most advanced
um weaponry ever in human history.
Okay? So, organization. Now, the last
great strength of the empire is the IDEA
DEATH IS THE IDEA that because your
people are infinite, because your
organization is so strong, because your
resources are so vast, you can afford to
lose many, many wars, okay? It's not a
big deal if the United States loses this
war in Iran. If they want to go back,
they can go back with even more
soldiers, even more um weaponry
because their wealth is infinite.
Okay? So, these are the three major advantages
advantages
of an empire. And in theory, because of
these advantages, an empire should be
invincible and eternal.
But we know for a fact that all empires
fall, and they fall very, very hard. And
quite honestly, they don't last a very
long time. Maybe 20 years, maybe 30
years for most empires. That's not a
very long time.
So, we need to better understand what's
going on, okay? Why is it that an empire
with these vast resources, they all fall
in 20 years, 30 years, okay? All right. So,
So, um
um
What we need to understand is that all
these advantages are ultimately
disadvantages in the long term. All
right, so let me let me let me explain
what I mean.
Mass, you have a lot of people, okay?
When you have a lot of people, you
Why? Because
there's competition for resources.
There's too many people.
Okay? And this often leads to debt and slavery.
And as a result, your people become
complacent, lazy, indifferent. They're
competing against each other. They
really don't like the government, okay?
So, they're not really that motivated
to do anything
to work or to fight wars, but especially
to fight wars.
So, this mass looks like an looks like
an advantage in the beginning, but over
time it becomes a disadvantage.
All right? Organization
um means an elite.
The problem with this
is that over time the elite become parasites.
Why? Because the way the way they make
their money is through rent seeking.
Rent seeking just means that you have
power and you seek to monetize your
power by exploiting the mass.
All right? So, basically landlords
are classic type of rent seeking elite.
And so, they don't really work, but they
make a lot of money because they own the
land, because they control all the
resources, because they control all of
the capital. And that forces the mass to
go into slavery, to go into debt, which
is what's happening in America today.
The problem with this is that every
everyone wants to be part of the elite.
And And are too many elite over time.
Okay? So, even though you have the elite
have many, many kids,
the uh power is a zero-sum game, it's a
hierarchy. And so, this leads to the
idea of elite overproduction.
Okay? Elite overproduction.
This is a term
um coined by the historian Peter Turchin.
Turchin.
Okay? And his theory is that you have
turmoil, you have wars.
For example, the French Revolution, for
example, uh the fall of the Roman
Republic, because there's too many
elite, and they start wars to claim
power for themselves.
Okay? So, this organization, this elite,
leads to basically factionalism
or infighting.
And that's what's happening in America
today, where the Democrats and the
Republicans, they hate hate each other,
they refuse to get along.
It's leads to political po-
polarization. Okay?
So, another thing this is that an empire
over time becomes insular. They don't
care about what happens outside the
world, all they care about is what
happens in Washington, D.C.
And as a result, um they make a lot of
stupid mistakes, okay?
All right. The last thing is debt. Okay,
the problem with debt is that if there
are no consequences to your actions, you
become arrogant, you become lazy, uh
uh
and you become incompetent, okay?
Because you don't care. It doesn't
really matter. And this leads to the
Okay? Hubris is this blindness to your
own arrogance, a violent arrogance that
makes you make silly mistakes, but you
don't recognize your mistakes, and you
keep on repeating the same mistakes over
and over again.
All right? So, yes, it seems like the
empire is invincible, but if you
actually think about it,
the empire its advantages become over
time its disadvantages, which which will
lead ultimately to its downfall.
Okay? So, the mass leads to inequality,
the organization leads to
overproduction, which leads to
factionalism, and death leads to hubris.
That's why an empire must fall over time.
time.
But an empire cannot fall by itself. It
needs an enemy that forces it to
collapse. Okay?
And so, what happens is that an enemy
will emerge that will
overwhelm the empire because it is able
to take advantage of the weaknesses of
the empire.
All right? And so,
what are the weaknesses of this empire?
Well, the first major weakness of this
empire is that the people aren't really
motivated. So, if you as people are
really motivated, you have a huge
All right?
Now, as an as an empire, you become
insular. You refuse to admit your
mistakes. You refuse to learn from others.
others.
Well, if you are willing to admit your
mistakes, if you're willing to learn, if
you're willing to
promote the best and brightest, if
you're willing to meritocratic, you have
a huge advantage, okay? And so, this
The last idea is this. An empire it's
fractured. So, if you're able to main
maintain cohesion,
if your people are able to remain
united, if they're able to have a common purpose,
purpose,
they would be strong, okay? So,
So,
if an enemy of the empire emerges with
these three qualities, energy, openness,
and cohesion, this enemy will defeat the empire.
empire.
It doesn't make sense. Okay. So, what I
want you to focus on as you follow the
news in this war between United States
and Iran is ask yourself a question.
Will Iran become an energetic, open, and
cohesive society?
Because if it does,
it will become invincible.
The empire won't change because of hubris.
hubris.
It's too static. It's too stagnant. It's
too bureaucratic. So, the empire won't
change. The empire will not admit its
own mistakes.
And quite honestly, Iran, because
because it's a it's a still a country of
92 million people, it still suffers from
issues of mass organization and death.
It's And so, if it's able to transform
itself into an energetic, open, and
cohesive society, then it will triumph
over America. That is the fundamental
question in this war, okay? Don't worry
about America, its technology.
Don't worry about the economy. Don't
worry about these things, okay? Just
worry Ask yourself one question.
Is Iran transforming its society? Are
the people becoming much more motivated?
Are people in Iran learning from their
mistakes and innovating and becoming
resilient on the battlefield?
Are the Iranians sticking together as a
people? Okay?
Because if the answer is yes to all
three questions, then Iran will win and
America will lose.
Okay? Doesn't make sense. But,
But,
so, that's just a theory. So, let's um
let's now >> [clears throat]
>> [clears throat]
>> talk specifically about
America and Iran, okay? So, America
will have three major advantages
in this war.
Okay? These three advantages are are, of course,
course, technology,
and money, wealth.
These are the three major strengths of
the American Empire.
All right? Technology is just what you
see every day, right? The satellites
that are able to position, target
these airplanes that are the greatest
war machines in the world.
Okay? So, America is home to the
greatest scientists,
the most advanced weaponry.
Okay, that's just technology.
Propaganda means that America controls
information space. It controls the internet.
internet.
It controls the world's most powerful
media, including the New York Times,
CNN, BBC.
It controls YouTube. It controls Google.
It controls the information landscape.
If America does not want you to know
something, it can hide it from you.
America can control the discourse. It
can control how you think about the
world. That's propaganda.
The last thing is money, okay? And it's
virtually my idea.
United States controls the US dollar,
which is a sort which is the reserve
currency of the world. And the United
States can print as much as much US
dollars as it needs in order to win this
war. It has an infinite money printer.
Okay? And now And then it can use this
money to bribe people to fight this war,
right? It can It can pay for
mercenaries. It can bribe ethnic
minorities to rebel against the
government in Iran. It can bribe Iranian
officials to betray the the government, okay?
okay?
So, looking at these three things, you
would think that America is invincible,
right? But again, we need to think about
the law asymmetry and recognize that
these advantages also disadvantages.
All right? So, let's discuss this. Technology.
Technology.
Well, you know, if you have those
advanced weaponry in the world,
you become lazy, arrogant, and dependent
on the technology, right? So, the
classic classic example, of course, is
our school, where you have access to
chat GPT.
Right? And like, you become smarter
because you have access to G- chat GPT?
No, you become dumber because you become lazy.
lazy.
Right? Same with technology. You would
think that with the most advanced
weaponry in the world, America would
become invincible, but instead, people
become the American um military becomes
too dependent on the on the technology,
it becomes too arrogant, too complacent.
Okay, so like, well, you know, if we get
If If we get into trouble, then we'll
just send in the Air Force and blow
everything up, okay?
And this actually hampers innovation and
resilience in the battlefield.
And this is what you need to win, okay?
You need to be innovative and you need
to be resilient on the battlefield, but
because of the technology,
you become too lazy
to think for yourself.
All right?
So, that's one problem. Propaganda. You
would think that, oh, American American
control the debate, therefore, that's a
huge advantage. It's actually not an
advantage, guys. The reason why is that
in order for innovation and resilience
to happen, you need you need to have
open debate.
Right? You need people to voice dissenting
dissenting opinions.
opinions.
But if you control the information
landscape, what you can do is censor.
And that's what America's doing right
now. It's telling people to shut up and obey.
obey.
You're not allowed to point out that
this war is stupid and America can't win
this war. Otherwise, you'll be kicked
out, okay?
So, this means that there's really a
lack of rigorous debate within the
American government.
Within the American military, within the
American elite.
Which, of course, will lead to hubris.
It will lead to bad decision-making. No
one's No one will point this out because
they're too they're too afraid of
pissing off the president and his
people, so they'll shut up and America
will keep on making the same mistakes
over and over again, okay?
We call it tricking tricking tricking
Okay. They're basically getting high on
on on their own supply is another phrase
that that we use.
All right.
Money and wealth. You think, "Okay,
well, THAT'S THIS IS THIS IS IT, MAN. WE
JUST bribe everyone. We just bribe the
entire world and um
we're good, right?" The problem is this.
The problem is that if you bribe people,
then they're not going to fight for you,
right? Because all they all they want is
your money. So, you bribe them, but
they'll but they'll probably take your
money and run away.
Okay? Or they'll figure out how to get
more money out of you by cheating you.
So, right now, the Americans are going
to fund these
um militias and ethnic minorities and
opposition groups against Iran, okay?
Guess what, guys? These guys are hustlers.
hustlers.
Right? They're not fighting because um
um
they want more freedom, they're fighting
because they want to rip off the US government.
And so this money issue can be a problem
in the long term because the people
you're bribing, you can't even trust.
And they're not that motivated to
actually win this war for you, they're
actually motivated to to scam you as
much as possible. And they could be
actually a problem in the long term
because you're putting so much resources
into these hustlers, okay?
All right. So,
So,
what this means
is that
America has three major problems, okay?
okay?
It has three major problems.
The first major problem is
the lack
And all this is saying is that the
American people don't want to fight this war.
war.
The American government doesn't doesn't
even know why they're fighting this war.
No one cares, okay?
okay?
But for the Iranians,
it's a struggle of life and death, right?
right?
If the America loses this war, they just
go home and forget about it. But if the
Iranians lose this war, they all get
killed or they lose their country, they
lose their society, they lose their
civilization, they lose their identity.
They cannot afford to lose this war,
okay? So, the first major problem that
Americans are facing is they don't have
any political will to fight this war,
but they're still fighting this war anyway.
anyway.
Okay? The question then, of course, is
why? Why Why is this happening? This is
actually the most important question,
it's the most complicated, so so so
we'll save this for later, okay?
Second is the idea of logistics
So, America is very good at fighting
short wars, okay? The reason why is
they're bad they have the most advanced
weaponry, but they have manufacturing
issues because as we know, America
shipped all its factories to China. So,
America doesn't have that many factories.
factories.
So, yes, it has the most advanced
weaponry in the world, but this weapon
doesn't doesn't do any good if you don't
have any ammunitions, right? You don't
have any ammunitions, bombs, bullets.
And you need factories for that. And
America doesn't really have these
factories. Now, I understand that
America is trying to is trying to
upgrade its manufacturing capacity, but
it's kind of slow. All right? So, maybe
5 years from now it will have
manufacturing capacity capacity to fight
this war, but right now it doesn't.
So, that's that's another um
um
major issue, okay? And then and then the
last issue of course is casualties.
All right. America, because it doesn't
have the political will to fight this
war, cannot afford to lose soldiers on
the battlefield.
All right? So,
So,
it wants to minimize the death it wants
to minimize battlefield losses because
if like a thousand tens of thousands of
American soldiers are going home to
America dead in coffins, I guarantee you
because of lack of political will, the
American people will revolt. You have
protests, you will have
um a lot of violence in the streets.
It'll be like the Vietnam uh era again.
All right?
Okay. So,
um yes, I understand that America has
technology, propaganda, and money, but
as we discussed, these aren't really
advantages. And these disadvantages are
huge. The lack of political will, the
lack of manufacturing, and the
lack of
of America cannot afford to lose that
many soldiers in the battlefield, okay?
And so this
this situation now determines how
America will fight this war. And we'll
discuss this later on, okay?
All right. Now, let's talk about Iran. >> [clears throat]
>> Okay. >> [clears throat]
>> [clears throat] >> So,
>> So,
Iran has a lot of disadvantages, okay?
But I want I want I want I want to
discuss right now their three major
advantages that they need to emphasize
if they are to survive this war.
All right? The first is the idea of faith.
All right? So, remember that the
Iranians are Shia.
And as such, it's a religion of
martyrdom, of eschatology,
of individual sacrifice for the greater good.
good.
The Shia are not afraid to die.
And because their great religious
leader, the Ayatollah Khamenei,
was assassinated by the Americans and
Israelis, they are motivated
to seek vengeance,
to model themselves for the greater
good, to seek eternal
All right? That's the first major
advantage. The second major advantage is terrain.
terrain. >> [clears throat]
>> [clears throat]
>> And all this means is that >> [clears throat]
>> [clears throat]
>> Iran is a mountainous country.
country.
And it's huge. It's three times the size
of Iraq.
Um so, it's very hard for America to
invade the country.
In fact,
most analysts will will say will tell
you it is suicidal
for the American military to invade
uh Iraq. It is a mountain fortress,
And the last issue is the the last
advantage is nationalism. Okay.
All right. >> [clears throat]
>> [clears throat]
And the Persians go back 5,000 years. It
is one of the greatest civilizations
in human history. And as we discussed
last semester, in the ancient world
there were three great civilizations,
right? The Jews, the Greeks, and the Persians.
Persians.
And um the Persian culture, it's vast,
it's beautiful, and it's deep.
And that's what gives the Iranian people
a lot of pride.
Okay? So,
when they're fighting, they're not just
fighting for their religion, they're not
just fighting for their homes, they're
fighting for the entire civilization
that goes back 5,000 years.
All right? So, these are the
three major advantages
that the Iranians have. Okay? Faith
means that they're not afraid to die
for what they believe in.
Terrain means that the Americans will
have a hard problem invading the country.
country.
Uh nationalism means that the people all
of the Iran know what they're fighting for.
for.
All right?
So, but again, remember, everything that
it seems like an advantage can be a
disadvantage as well, all right? So, >> [clears throat]
>> [clears throat]
>> let's go over what the problems are.
With faith, you might have an issue of blindness.
blindness.
Where
you're not afraid to die,
but that means that you're not thinking
strategically. Okay?
Maybe you're going to waste too many
soldiers on the battlefield. They're
brave, but they're kind of stupid as well.
well.
All right? So, you might have an issue
where Iran is not using the optimal
um strategy because
their [clears throat] soldiers are not
afraid of death. And we're already
seeing that where where the Americans
have already blown up and destroyed the
Iranian navy.
Now, I had already told you that if the
first thing the Americans would do is go
and destroy the Iranian navy. So, you
should probably not use the navy or hide
the navy or blow up the navy yourself,
okay? Because you want to avoid as many
casualties as possible.
But, they didn't do that and they and
the Americans have now destroyed the
Iranian navy.
All right? So, that's issue of faith.
Terrain, yeah, it's a fortress, but it
can also be a prison,
right? Where you're just sort of stuck
there and because it's a mountainous
region, it doesn't have that many
resources. So, Americans can actually
disrupt your water supply, disrupt your electricity,
electricity,
okay? And cause general poverty and
hardship for your people. Okay?
Okay?
And then, nationalism, yes, Persia is a
great culture, but remember that
Iran is a ethnically diverse country. In
fact, only 50% of the population of Iran
it are Persians.
Others are different minorities, okay?
All right? So,
um you have then ethnic divisions.
divisions. Right?
Okay?
So, looking at this, now we know exactly
what the American strategy will be.
Basically, the strategy will be
to inflict
as many casualties as possible on the Iranians.
Iranians.
All right, to kill as many people as possible.
possible.
Destroy the infrastructure of Iran of
Iran so that the people don't have
enough water, electricity, food to
survive, okay? Now, the third, of
course, is to create as much ethnic
tension in the country as possible by
arming and encouraging and bribing
ethnic groups to rebel against the
central government in Tehran. Right?
Right? Okay?
Okay?
But again,
what the law of symmetry asymmetry tells
us is that the empire ultimately is not
as flexible and open and dynamic as its enemy.
enemy. Okay?
Okay?
The weaker person is going to engage in
much more self-reflection, self-debate,
than the empire, okay? Because the
empire will become arrogant. And so ultimately,
ultimately,
Iran should triumph over America. And in
fact, what's going to happen is that
this strategy that America will use
against the Iranians will lead to the
Iranians becoming much more energetic,
open, and cohesive.
Okay? So, let's look at let's look at
let's look at the American strategy specifically.
specifically. >> [clears throat]
>> All right. So, this is an ethnic map
of Iran. Okay?
Now, certain things that you will see is
how divided the country is. Yeah, the
Persians are in the center, but people
you want to watch are the Kurds.
Okay, the Kurds.
And the um Azaris.
Azaris.
And the Baluchs.
Okay? These are the three major problem
areas for Iran, and it's always been the
case. Remember the Persians are in the
middle. So, the Baluchs
are, first of all, Sunni Muslims.
As we discussed last class, the Sunnis
and the Shias have never really gotten
along well together. They have different
uh I mean, they're the same religion, uh
Islam, but they have different belief
systems. That's led to a lot of
conflicts in the past. It's almost like
the Catholics and the Protestants, okay?
And so, the Baluchs have been trying to
rebel against Iranians for a long time.
I guarantee you that there already
Israeli and American special forces
embedded in this area, okay? The reason
why is that they want to encourage as
much civil conflict as possible, but
they also want to prepare the ground for
the possibility for a ground invasion of America.
America. Okay?
Okay?
So, they would need a um
um >> [clears throat]
>> [clears throat]
>> forward operating base.
And this area could be a very good place
for a beginning of a land in of of a
land invasion. Then you over here, you
have the Kurds.
Okay? The Kurds are another minority
that seeks national sovereignty. And
And
right now, what's happening is that the
Americans and Israelis are bombing this
area heavily, and they're targeting
police stations. Why? Because they're
trying to reduce and eliminate
opposition so that they can arm the
Kurds and have them come into this area
and and threaten
Iran. What's also happening is that in Iraq
Iraq
there are these Sunni uh
uh
groups, okay, that the Americans are
uh basically bribing
and arming, and they're basically
fanatics, okay? They're ISIS.
And what the Americans want to do is
send them into uh Iran to cause as much
problems as possible.
Okay? Then you over here you have Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan,
Azerbaijan,
it is a independent country. What's
really odd is that the majority of ethnic
ethnic
uh Azaris are actually in Iran. 60% 6%
are in the country, 40% are in the
country of Azerbaijan, which means that
from the perspective of the Azerbaijani people,
people, this
this
war could be an opportunity to reunite
the people. Okay? And create a greater Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan.
So these are the three problem areas
that you have to watch as this war
develops over the next few weeks, over
the next few months. Okay?
So we already know what the American
strategy will be because we've seen it
in Libya, in Syria before. Okay, so what
is the strategy?
All right.
So again, the strategy is to both attack
without, okay, from outside and inside
as well.
So what you're going to do is this.
You're going to arm these people, in
embed special forces into these
insurgent groups to lead them and
provide air cover so they have a clear
path into Iran and are able to limit
opposition, okay?
All right?
So now you're attacking from without.
With tactical move in means to cause as
much pain and suffering in the interior
of Iran as possible.
All right? And how you do that? Well,
you do that through
decapitation. Okay, let's go over the strategies.
strategies.
Okay?
And what you're doing is you're removing
the elite.
Okay, or what we call
Okay? You're basically eliminating the
capacity of Iran to govern itself, to
have a leadership, to have an elite.
All right, command and control. Okay, so
that's the first strategy.
Second strategy is
is um
um
um aerial bombardment, okay? Air supremacy.
>> [clears throat]
>> So again, America has the most advanced
airplanes in the world. And the way that
it's using its airplanes is to destroy
as much military installations as
possible, but it's also engaging in acts
of sabotage, okay?
So what they're doing is they're carpet bombing.
Okay, so they're carpet bombing Tehran, okay?
Soft targeting. Soft targeting means
that instead of attacking military
installations, you attack hospitals.
Why? Because you're degrading the
capacities I'm sorry, you're degrading
the state's capacity to rejuvenate
itself, to be resilient, okay?
The last thing is something called
double tap.
Double tap is this, okay?
And it's really illegal or against
international law. What you do is this.
You attack a place, right? You kill some people,
people,
and then people try to come and help the
people who are injured. And they could
be like
doctors, it could be emergency emergency
personnel, it could be relatives, right?
And then you strike again to create as
much as many civilian casualties as possible.
possible.
Right? And the entire idea is to create
as much fear
and anxiety in people as possible so
that they lose the capacity to resist.
Right? And [snorts] the last thing you do
do >> [clears throat]
>> [clears throat]
>> and so the and the last thing of course
is to um
um arm
arm
and bribe [clears throat] insurgents.
insurgents.
Okay? So these are the three main pillars
pillars
of the American strategy. And you're
going to see this over the next few weeks.
weeks.
The problem [clears throat]
with this
is that when you do these three things,
you're not actually hurting the
Iranians, you're actually helping them.
Because remember the law of asymmetry
states that whichever group is able to
to create energy, openness, and cohesion
will win. And guess what guys?
This American strategy is going to
create a more energetic, more open, and
more cohesive
Persian society.
All right? Let me show you how. All
right, decapitation.
We just said that one major problem for
America is elite overproduction, right?
Well, with decapitation
what you're doing is
you're solving this problem for the Iranians.
Iranians.
Right? Before the huge problem for the
Iranians were, you have too many leaders
and they all have their own stupid
opinion and they all want to lead this
war, right?
But by killing so many leaders,
you allow
for more mobility, for more for more
meritocracy, right? You're solving a
problem of elite overproduction for the
Iranians. That's a huge huge bonus,
guys, okay? So,
So,
um the leadership will become much more
lean, much more mean, much more determined,
determined,
and much more strategic. Okay?
Okay?
That's number one. Number two, air supremacy.
supremacy.
Well, when you do this to people, when
you carpet bomb Tehran, you're creating
Why?
Because the major conflict in Iran for
many decades was the conflict between
the urban areas and the rural areas. The
rural areas were very religious, very
poor, very backward. And the urban areas
were educated, secular, and progressive.
Okay? And so this is huge conflict that
led to a lot of riots, a lot of protests in
in
uh Iran. But when you carpet bomb the
cities, which are the main source of of
of support for, you know, progressive
Western policies, you make them united
with the rural areas, okay? Does that
make sense?
The Iranian people no longer see
themselves each other as enemies, they
see the Americans as really as enemies.
You create a much more cohesive society,
which are who are willing to
fight together, and that's a problem, okay?
okay?
All right.
The last thing. You Yes, you are arming
the insurgents, the Balochs, the Kurds,
the Zaris.
Okay, that's fine. The problem with this
is that you are now
activating, GALVANIZING PERSIAN NATIONALISM.
RIGHT?
FOR THE LONGEST TIME, the Persian
national identity was suppressed by the
theocracy. Because they want to create a
more, you know, they want to create a
grand religion that unites all ethnicities.
ethnicities.
When you turn the other minorities
against the Iranians, then the Persian
people have to come together and
remember their history, celebrate their identity.
identity.
And this is the key, okay?
Once the Persian people are able to
activate their long-lost memories, go
back in the past and remember their greatness,
greatness,
they come together as an energetic,
open, and cohesive society. Okay?
Okay?
So, yes, the Americans have this
strategy that worked in Libya, in Syria,
and other places, but it's not going to
work in Iran. In fact, it's going to do
the opposite in
in Iran.
Iran.
Okay? And then you're like, "Well,
why don't the Americans not do this?"
And I already told you, because it's an
empire, okay? It doesn't care about
Iran, it cares about itself. And so,
it's sort of stuck with this policy
because, remember, it's trying to win
this war as quickly as possible because
it doesn't have the manufacturing
capacity to fight this war for a long time.
time.
It's trying to reduce as many civil
casu- Sorry, it's trying to reduce as
many casualties among its soldiers as
possible because the Americans don't
have the political will to fight this
war. America's trying to win this war
cheaply and fast. And if it doesn't, the
Americans are in a lot of trouble.
Okay? Does that make sense, guys?
All right.
Let me now
um conclude
or sorry, let let let me now discuss
the Iranian strategy, okay? So, um what
the Americans are using is a classic
Okay?
And so, what the Iranians are going to
do is they're going to respond with a
classic strategy called guerrilla warfare.
Okay, and guerrilla warfare, guys, it's
just as simple as hide-and-seek.
All right? So, you can bomb me with all
everything you have, I'll just hide in
my mountains. And then when you leave,
what what I'm going to do I'm going to
attack your uh GCC countries. I'm going
to lob drones, rockets at you. I'm going
to lob
um rockets at Israel, okay? I I I don't have
have
I don't have to strike that hard. I just
have to make I just have to be a pain in
the ass, okay? Because then what happens
is you're forced to come back and bomb
the living hell out of me, but guess
what? I'll just hide in my mountains
again. I'll just hide-and-seek, okay?
So, Iran can do this for years and years
and years. But again, remember America
is forced to win this war as fast as
possible because there is no political will,
will,
they don't have manufacturing
manufacturing capacity,
and they uh don't want to uh they don't
want that many casualties and economic
damage, okay?
Does that make sense, guys?
All right? So, that's all Iran is going
to do. Iran is just going to be a pain
in the ass, okay? A pain in the ass.
It's trying to create as much economic
damage as possible. It's trying to
create as much fear as possible.
All right? Which will force America to
attack. The grand question is this,
will America launch a ground invasion?
Okay? Because if it does, then
then um
um
they've lost the war, okay?
All right? Because look look at look at
Iran, okay? Mountains and mountains, deserts.
deserts.
It is impossible to occupy
All right? It's impossible to invade.
And what the Iranians want to do is be
so such a pain in the ass to commit so
much guerrilla warfare that America is
forced to invade, okay, from over here
and from over here and from over here
and from over here. And then eventually
uh but the problem is that America
doesn't have doesn't have the resources,
the political will, the manufacturing
capacity to fight this war, okay?
Does that make sense?
All right.
So now you're like, "Okay,
I understand all this.
But why the hell is this war happening then?"
then?"
Like if I can tell you this, okay? I'm
sure that their generals can tell them
this as well. I'm sure that they know
that this was the case. In fact, for years
years
America has been planning to invade Iran
and for years the generals were like,
"No, that's suicidal. Let's not do this, okay?"
okay?"
So why is this happening?
And unfortunately, we don't know because
the administration is not telling us. At
first Trump is like, "Oh, because the
nuclear talks didn't go well." But we
know for a fact that the Iranians were
willing to agree to all terms
of the Americans.
And then Marco Rubio, who's who's who's
who's the Secretary of State,
he came out yesterday and he he said
something really moronic. He said that,
"Why did we attack Iran? Because we
heard the Israelis were going to attack
first. And then the Iranians were going
to respond by by attacking both the
Israelis and us, the Americans. And
therefore we have to preempt the
Israelis by attacking first."
That is okay?
All right. So they don't they they don't
know why they're doing this. But there
has to be a reason, right?
Okay. What clue is this? The clue is this.
this.
The soldiers are being asked The
American soldiers are being asked to
fight this war. And again, no one knows
why used while was happening?
But there's reporting that the generals
are telling the soldiers
this is a war for
for Jesus.
Jesus.
This is a war to
to
create the second coming of Jesus, okay?
This is um John W. Larson
and he's writing this on on Substack,
okay? US troops were told Iran war is
for Armageddon, the return of Jesus.
What is this? All right. So, um so
sorry. So, um
um
some soldiers who are not Christians
were told that this is a war for Jesus
and like, wait a minute, we're not we're
not Christians, we're Muslims or we're
atheists. So, why are we fighting this war?
war?
And so they filed a complaint about the
speech, okay?
And we're going to read a part of this
email that the soldiers who are
dissenting sent to some other people to
complain about this, okay? So, um I
could could could you read, please? Yes, sir.
I am a NCO rank withheld in our unit.
This morning our commander opened up the
combat readiness status briefing by
urging us to not be afraid as to what is
happening with our combat operations in
Iran right now.
>> Stop. Okay, afraid.
This word tells us they're losing the war.
war.
Okay? Right? Keep on going.
He urged us to tell our troops that this
was all part of God's divine plan and he
specifically referenced
>> in here. Wait a minute.
God's divine plan?
God's not
the one ordering them to fight this war.
It's Trump or or the American military,
okay? This is kind of weird. Keep on going.
going.
And he specifically referenced numerous
citations out of the book of Revelation
referring to Armageddon and the imminent
return of Jesus Christ. He said that
President Trump has been anointed by
Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran
to cause Armageddon, and mark his return
to Earth. Oh my god. President Trump,
the fire in Iran, it's all a part of a
grand plan
to destroy the world so that Jesus will
return. What is this crap? Okay, keep me going.
going.
He had a big grin on his on his face when
when
>> Okay, he's happy about this, guys. THE
WORLD IS ENDING. YEAH! [screaming]
KEEP ME GOING.
WHEN HE said all of this, which made his
message seem even more crazy. Our
commander would probably be as a
Christian first supporter. He's been
this way for a very long time and makes
it clear that he desires all of us under
him to become just like him as a Christian.
Christian.
But what he did this morning was so
toxic and over the line that it shocked
many of us in attendance at the
absurdness briefing briefing.
Beside Besides myself, I am reaching out
to MRFF on behalf of 15 fellow troops. I
know you asked me about the religious
views of our group who has requested
help from the MRFF. I can only tell you
that I am Christian and at least 10 of
the others are also Christians.
One of the others is Jewish and one is
one is Muslim. I don't know the
religious or non-religious status for
the other three at this time. Okay, so
what is happening is that there's some
crazy Christians in American military,
American government, okay,
okay,
that want to use this war
to end the world,
to force Jesus to return.
That is why this war is happening.
Okay, I'm not saying I'm not saying that
this is the reason why, but I'm saying like
like
this is a possibility, okay? All right,
this is Trump and these are all
religious leaders that support Trump
because they see him as Messiah.
They They see him as this as this great
hero who will cause the triumph of
Christianity and the return of Jesus.
[music] And that's a possibility as to
why this war is being fought, okay?
Because quite honestly, there's no other
reason. It's hard for me to come up with
another reason, okay?
All right.
So, this is something that we will look
at as we go along. What is this crap?
What is Christian Zionism?
Why would they think that this war in
the Middle East will cause the return of
Jesus, okay? Well, we'll discuss this
later on.
But I wanted to But now it leads us to
another problem, which is our entire
class is on game theory, right? Guys,
this is kind of weird because >> [snorts]
>> [snorts]
>> what this suggests is that religion >> [applause]
