0:02 it's now one year since I was first
0:04 introduced to the wonders of Arbitrage
0:06 bedding and I made my first $8,000 in
0:09 profit and since then I've tried tested
0:11 and developed my own optimal betting
0:13 strategy which I've now used to make
0:17 over $440,000 in profit and Counting
0:18 this is a strategy that I call positive
0:21 EV or plus EV betting and it's a much
0:23 better version of Arbitrage it's simpler
0:26 to calculate mathematically it's less
0:28 time consuming and in the long term you
0:31 can expect to make a lot more money make
0:33 sure you guys watch the end of the video
0:34 where I'll be going through a real life
0:37 example of an actual plus EV and
0:39 Arbitrage bet that I can place on
0:41 bookies as many people have been asking
0:45 for this so what is plus EV betting EV
0:47 stands for expected value and is a term
0:49 commonly used in the finance industry by
0:52 investment analysts quantitative Traders
0:54 and all the Wolves of Wall Street it
0:56 comes from probability Theory and in
0:58 short represents how much you can expect
1:00 to make while disregarding any risk in
1:03 sports betting this is easy to calculate
1:05 it's the sum of all the products of the
1:07 payoff multiplied by the probability of
1:10 that event for example in a soccer game
1:12 between Norwich and man united the
1:15 bookie is offering 1.42 on man united to
1:18 win this means the payoffs are you make
1:21 42 cents profit if Man United win and
1:24 lose $1 if man united loses or the game
1:27 ends in a draw the EV or expected value
1:29 is therefore the probability Man United win
1:30 win
1:33 multiplied by 42 plus the probability of
1:35 the game drawing or losing for Man
1:38 United multiplied by -1 for more
1:40 information on how you can get these
1:42 probabilities you can check out my
1:43 previous sports betting video which I'll
1:45 link above and in that video I talked
1:47 about how you can get the fair odds and
1:49 fair probabilities of events happening
1:52 by looking at a betting exchange or a
1:54 very sharp bookmaker if you do the EV
1:56 calculations for most of the bets that
1:58 bookies are offering you you will most
2:01 likely find that it is negative and this
2:03 negative number represents how much The
2:05 Bookies are ripping you off by and how
2:07 much you can expect to lose in the long
2:09 term however occasionally there are plus
2:12 EV opportunities positive EV betting
2:14 relies on exploiting bookmakers
2:16 mispriced odds which they will make
2:18 mistakes occasionally and also some of
2:20 their promotional offers which can turn
2:22 your expected value to become positive
2:24 this can come in the form of either
2:27 higher boosted odds or partial refunds
2:30 on a bet that you don't win in the hope
2:32 of luring a new customer into becoming
2:34 one of their great customers which is
2:37 the degenerate gamblers being a plus EV
2:39 better means taking only the bets that
2:41 are positive EV from your mathematical
2:44 calculations and ignoring all other bets
2:46 so let's take a look at a hypothetic
2:48 example to have a better understanding
2:51 of positive EV betting and also compare
2:53 it to Arbitrage and from there you can
2:55 see that Arbitrage betting is truly
2:57 inferior to positive EV betting so in
2:59 our coin TOS example we have a fair coin
3:01 coin which means it has a 50% chance of
3:04 heads and a 50% chance of tails in this
3:07 case let's assume there's a mispricing
3:09 in the odds there's odds of four for
3:12 heads and odds of 1.8 for
3:16 Tails we have $3 to bet across either
3:18 heads or
3:21 tails let's see how our Arbitrage better
3:24 will go through about this what they
3:26 will do is first for the first bet bet
3:29 $1 on heads at four odds the second bet
3:32 is $2 on tails at the 1.8
3:34 odds and therefore if it's heads they
3:37 win $3 on their first bet and lose $2 on
3:39 their second bet which means they make
3:43 $1 in overall profit similarly if it's
3:44 taals they lose their Dollar on the
3:47 first bet and win $160 on their second
3:50 bet giving them an overall profit of 60
3:52 what about for the plus EV better they
3:55 see the odds of four is positive EV or
3:57 positive expected value whereas the odds
4:01 of 1.8 for tails is negative EV as the
4:03 odds are not the fair odds or higher of
4:06 two we again have $3 to bet let's see
4:08 what the plus EV better would do in this
4:11 case what they would do is BET all their
4:14 money the $3 all on heads at four odds
4:16 since that is the positive EV bet and
4:18 completely ignore the other bet so in
4:21 the outcome that it is heads they win $9
4:24 on their first bet and their only bet so
4:26 they get $9 in overall profit if it was
4:28 taals then they would be unlucky and
4:32 lose $3 on on their bet and incur a $3
4:34 overall loss but let's take a look at
4:37 what the expected value is the EV is
4:39 calculated by the probability multiplied
4:42 by the payoffs which is 50% chance of
4:44 landing on heads multiplied by $9 plus
4:47 50% chance of land on taals multiplied by
4:48 by
4:52 -3 this gives us $450 -150 which means
4:55 our expected value is $3 for this bet
4:57 now what about the Arbitrage better this
5:00 was their bet $1 on headset four $2 on
5:03 taals at 1.8 which means they get $1
5:05 overall profit if it is heads and 60
5:08 cents overall profit if it is Tails this
5:11 means that EV or expected value is 50% *
5:15 1 + 50% * 0.6 which are both positive
5:17 numbers but in the end the EV is only 80
5:20 cents significantly less than if it was
5:23 for the plus EV better so what are the
5:25 advantes and disadvantages we can see
5:28 from this example well for Arbitrage the
5:30 profit is risk-free no matter what
5:32 outcome it resulted in he would make a
5:34 profit but the profit is smaller in the
5:37 long term and for plus EV you do have
5:39 that risk of losing $3 in that bet but
5:42 in the long term your expected profit is
5:44 going to be much higher if you guys
5:45 didn't understand how I did the
5:47 calculations the first time I would
5:48 highly recommend you check out again the
5:50 previous Sports wedding video where I
5:52 explain how to do mathematical
5:54 probability payoff calculations and then
5:57 rewatch this coint TOS example as things
5:59 will only get more and more complex from
6:01 here so so hopefully from that example
6:03 you can kind of see why I stopped doing
6:04 Arbitrage betting and then shifted
6:07 towards a positive EV betting style
6:08 there's a few reasons for this which
6:10 I'll go over now Arbitrage betting is
6:12 essentially placing two bets one which
6:14 is the positive EV bet which is the same
6:16 one that is being placed by the positive
6:19 EV better and the second bet is a hedge
6:22 bet which is used only to reduce the
6:24 risk of the first bet and often times
6:26 the second bet or the Hedge bet is
6:28 negative EV overall the sum of the EV or
6:31 expected value is still positive which
6:32 hence you can get an Arbitrage
6:34 opportunity out of it and guarantee a
6:36 profit but it's likely going to be
6:39 significantly less than if you just took
6:41 the positive EV bet and this will mean
6:43 we are expecting to make less money in
6:45 the long run even though we are still
6:47 making money just not as much as
6:49 positive EV also since we are now
6:51 placing two bets instead of the one
6:53 which the positive EV bet is only
6:55 required to place this kind of tends to
6:57 over complicate things and now you have
6:59 to work out calculations of how much to
7:02 bet which places to bet on for two bets
7:04 instead of one and doubling the time and
7:07 doubling the complexity J is somewhat of
7:09 an advantage that Arbitrage has over
7:12 positive EV is by the term itself
7:15 Arbitrage is a risk-free way of making
7:17 money which is probably what is
7:19 appealing to most people no matter the
7:21 outcome like in the coint TOs example
7:23 you can see you can make money and there
7:25 is a lot of more risk when it comes to
7:27 positive EV betting in the short term
7:29 only for the positive EV better there's
7:31 a 50% chance they'll lose money in the
7:34 coint TOs example but I would argue that
7:36 this risk reduction is pretty
7:38 insignificant especially when it comes
7:40 to playing the long game and betting
7:42 frequently diversification and the law
7:45 of large numbers state that as the
7:47 number of bets I place approaches a
7:49 large number the presence of luck
7:52 completely Fades and my profit or loss
7:54 will eventually converge to the point
7:56 that is represented purely by the sum of
7:59 the expected value or EV of all the all
8:01 the bets I've placed for the coin toss
8:05 example yes if I place the bets once and
8:07 only flip the coin once then yes I do
8:09 have a 50% chance which is quite a large
8:12 chance of losing money but imagine I
8:14 made the coin toss and did the same bets
8:16 on a thousand different coin tops events
8:18 statistically and you don't need to
8:20 worry about how I did this exactly but
8:22 using binomial probability you can see
8:25 that 99.9% of the time there's going to
8:29 be at least 450 heads or 450 times that
8:32 the fa that the outcome is in my favor
8:35 out of 1,000 so 45% of the time so in
8:37 this case where there are at least 450
8:40 heads which there's a 99.9% chance of
8:43 statistically our Arbitrage better won't
8:45 actually make that much profit there
8:49 would can expect to make 450 * 1 + 550 *
8:51 60 which means they make an overall
8:52 profit of
8:55 $780 for a plus EV better when they at
8:58 least 450 heads they can actually make a
9:01 substantial amount of profit they can
9:06 expect to make $9 * by 450 + $550 * the
9:08 $3 that they lose each time they it's
9:09 not heads which means they have an
9:11 overall profit of
9:14 $2,400 significantly greater than that
9:17 of our Arbitrage better and this is the
9:19 kind of the worst case scenario where
9:22 there's only 450 heads if there were 500
9:24 heads or more the profit would be even
9:26 more bit significant this shows that
9:28 even with terrible luck it no longer
9:30 plays a huge difference when you can
9:32 exploit the law of large numbers to
9:34 phase out oneoff variances now as
9:36 promised I'll go on to show a bet that
9:39 can actually be placed so you guys can
9:41 realize that this is definitely not a
9:43 scam this wouldn't be possible without a
9:45 fast-paced betting odds comparison site
9:47 like odds Jam which is also today's
9:50 video sponsor so here you can see that I
9:52 am on the odds jams platform which is a
9:54 site that collects all the most recent
9:56 odds data from all the major bookies and
9:58 betting exchanges and then Compares them
10:01 all to each other and find all the
10:03 Arbitrage and positive EV
10:05 opportunities we can see this in the
10:07 betting tools there's both Arbitrage and
10:10 plus CV as an example we can see this
10:12 Arbitrage calculator tells us how much
10:14 to bet on each event to guarantee a
10:17 profit so here we can see for our market
10:19 player made threes for Marcus Morris if
10:22 we bet over 2.5 on Caesar and we bet
10:24 under 2.5 on fanel with the
10:26 corresponding amounts of 500 and 659 we
10:30 can get a profit guaranteed of $40 58 on
10:32 the other hand for our plus EV bets
10:34 oddam will just recommend an amount to
10:36 wager which is how much to bet based on
10:39 our Kelly Criterion and our expected
10:41 value of how much we'll make is the
10:43 amount to wager multiplied by the
10:45 percentage of the EV we can change our
10:47 Kelly bank roll in our settings and we
10:49 can also actually set email
10:51 notifications to be reminded instantly
10:54 when there's a large positive EV bet to
10:57 place for example here when I get 21%
11:00 for this Market odds Jam has the latest
11:02 odds St of many bookmakers across the
11:04 world but for now the opportunities are
11:07 predominantly in the United States so if
11:09 you live there then you are in luck and
11:11 you're easily going to find plenty of
11:13 opportunities and you will make back the
11:15 subscription cost and more very quickly
11:17 odd Jam also has a neat bet tracking
11:20 feature that measures your performance
11:21 this helps you keep track of how you are
11:24 doing as an added bonus I've managed to
11:26 get you guys 25% off your first month
11:29 subscription to get this you must one
11:31 use use the link below and two enter the
11:34 code Shane 25 to get 25% off your first
11:36 month if you enjoyed this video then
11:37 make sure to give it a big like down
11:39 below it really helps out the channel
11:41 and if you learned something today then
11:43 make sure to subscribe to not miss out
11:45 on the upcoming educational Sports
11:47 breing content as always take care and
