0:05 I'm Francis Sternley and this is Ukraine
0:08 the latest. Today, [music] as President
0:10 Zilinski appears to reject Donald
0:12 Trump's proposal for Ukraine to seed
0:14 territory to Moscow, we examine the new
0:16 European plan set to be presented to the
0:20 US later on. We also report on Ukrainian
0:21 troops still holding out in the
0:23 frontline city of Perrosp before turning
0:25 to developments inside [music] Russia,
0:27 including Putin's new law requiring
0:30 100,000 military reserves to undergo 2
0:32 months of training and growing protests
0:34 over tax rises.
0:38 >> Bravery takes you through the most
0:42 unimaginable hardships to finally reward
0:44 you with victory.
0:56 If I'm president, I will have that war
0:58 settled in one day, 24 hours.
1:01 >> We are with you, not just today or
1:10 >> Nobody's going to break us. We are
1:14 strong. We are Ukrainians.
1:17 It's Tuesday, the 9th of December, 3
1:20 years and 290 days since the full-scale
1:22 invasion began. And today, I'm joined by
1:24 our associate editor of defense, Dominic
1:26 Nichols, and the podcast's very own
1:28 Russia analyst, James Kilmer. But first,
1:32 the latest from the front lines.
1:35 >> Right, Prosp has not yet fallen despite
1:37 Putin's recent claim that Russian forces
1:39 have taken the city. Those words come
1:41 from our friend and colleague Jonathan
1:42 Beiel, the defense editor of the BBC.
1:44 He's reporting from the east Ukraine at
1:46 the moment. He says there is no doubt
1:48 Ukraine has been losing ground in the
1:50 city. The city is in ruins. He says the
1:52 battle there has been grinding on for
1:54 nearly 18 months. But he says Russian
1:56 forces have slowly been advancing from
1:58 the south. Ukraine is losing ground but
2:01 says it still holds the north up to the
2:03 railway line that bisects the city. He
2:07 was with a number of Ukrainian forces in
2:08 the headquarters where they had
2:10 personnel on the ground that went into
2:12 the city to raise the Ukrainian flag and
2:14 take a photo. We see this quite a lot.
2:15 Doesn't mean they hold that position,
2:17 just that they are there for that brief
2:19 moment in time. Anyway, he said that he
2:20 reports the Russians have been using
2:23 small teams of two to four soldiers to
2:25 get past Ukrainian positions, sometimes
2:27 dressed as civilians. One Ukrainian
2:29 battalion commander said, "That's a good
2:31 tactic to get behind enemy lines to get
2:33 a foothold." But then added, "The enemy
2:35 who gets into our rear is quickly
2:38 identified and destroyed." One soldier
2:40 known to Johnny Bill as rabbit described
2:43 the situation as hard but under control.
2:45 He showed Johnny a Russian machine gun
2:47 captured by one of his comrades who
2:50 spent 70 straight days fighting in
2:53 Picrosk. Rabbit said all he wanted was
2:56 cigarettes and ammunition. Now, the
2:58 fighting is clearly taking its toll on
2:59 Ukrainian forces, Johnny says, but
3:02 there's no sign of them giving up. Nor
3:04 does Rabbit agree with any suggestion
3:06 that Ukraine should give up more land
3:08 for peace. He says too much blood has
3:10 already been spilled. He said, "We are
3:11 part of this land. If we give it up,
3:14 Russia will want more." Another soldier
3:16 called sign ghost fighting in another
3:19 unit in describes the situation as tense
3:22 but not critical. He dismissed reports
3:24 of the city's capture as a Russian
3:26 propaganda, saying reports that Picross
3:29 is surrounded is fake information.
3:31 However, he added that everyone is
3:34 exhausted, both Russia and Ukraine.
3:36 Now, Johnny reports the Russians have
3:38 been using drones with thermal imaging
3:40 cameras or more of them than Ukraine
3:42 has. Obviously, they'll be able to see
3:45 at night. One soldier said that he and
3:46 his men always hoped for good weather,
3:49 by which he meant fog, rain, and gray
3:51 sky. Johnny finishes by saying, "The
3:53 message from the troops we talked to is
3:56 that the situation in Picrosk is not so
3:58 bleak, but Ukraine needs proof of its
4:01 resolve at this critical time." We'll
4:02 put a link in the episode notes to
4:04 Johnny's article. Otherwise, elsewhere
4:06 around the country, no significant other
4:10 move. Still no great move by Russia west
4:12 in the area of Denipro Petrosp Zaparisia
4:16 Oblast border areas. Similarly, no
4:17 further move in Kubansk in the
4:20 northeast. reports recently that Ukraine
4:22 had counterattacks in that area. That
4:23 seems to have held the situation,
4:25 although they've not been able to eject
4:27 Russian forces completely from the city,
4:30 but nor has Russia been able to get
4:32 through. Sunumi left without power this
4:34 morning following Russian attacks last
4:37 night. 24 of 110 Russian drones got
4:38 through air defense, hitting nine
4:41 locations. They were mainly in the north
4:43 in Sunumi just as I said then rotating
4:46 east through Daetsk Zaparisia and
4:47 Hezison in the south where two people
4:50 were killed there. In total 10 people
4:52 killed in the last 24 hours 43 others
4:56 injured according to local authorities.
4:58 Now you remember that strike on Turnipil
5:00 in the west of Ukraine on November the
5:02 19th. Two ballistic missiles hit a
5:05 residential block there killed dozens of
5:07 civilians. Well, as of today, the death
5:10 toll stands at 38 after police say they
5:12 identified the bodies of two more
5:13 victims that had previously been
5:16 considered missing. One of the victims
5:18 was 7-year-old Polish citizen Amelia.
5:20 Poland's foreign ministry declared that
5:22 she died with her mother during the
5:25 attack. Now, General Alexander Serski,
5:27 the head of Ukraine's armed forces, says
5:28 that Ukraine is going to focus on
5:30 strengthening the army through better
5:33 mobilization, recruitment, and high
5:35 quality training. He was speaking this
5:37 morning following a recent meeting with
5:39 a number of senior military personnel.
5:41 Writing on Facebook, he said, "The enemy
5:43 continues its advance, so we have no
5:46 choice but to strengthen our defense and
5:48 reinforce our army to continue repelling
5:51 Russia's full-scale aggression." It
5:52 looks like they're going to be aiming to
5:54 improve both the structure and
5:56 conditions of military training. Among
5:59 the key changes, we're told the military
6:01 is going to be extending the duration of
6:04 its basic military training to 51 days.
6:06 As an aside, I'm well out of date, but I
6:08 did do a little time as a recruit
6:10 trainer in my military service when our
6:13 basic military training was 11 weeks or
6:15 77 days. So, it gives you a bit of
6:16 comparison. So, that Ukraine is going to
6:18 increase its basic military training to
6:22 51. So, about what about four weeks less
6:23 than you get in in a British or
6:26 equivalent military. They're also going
6:28 to introduce specialized instruction and
6:30 an adaptation period within combat
6:32 units. I presume by the adaptation
6:34 period they mean actually then training
6:35 on your specific role rather than just
6:37 getting bunged in there and training on
6:38 the job which is never a good thing in
6:40 the face of the enemy although sometimes
6:42 desperate measures and all that.
6:44 Additional measures are going to include
6:46 improving the selection of training of
6:48 instructors. Always one of the most
6:50 important parts of any training pipeline
6:52 is get the instructors. Don't get a load
6:54 of primadonas who the creeping
6:56 excellence as we used to call it. Oh, I
6:57 passed the course. If loads of people
6:58 pass the course, that means it was easy.
7:00 Therefore, I'm going to fail loads of
7:02 people to show how hard it is. You don't
7:04 want that. You want professional, good,
7:06 quality instructors who are good
7:08 examples to the people they are
7:09 training. They're also going to be
7:11 modernizing their training center
7:13 infrastructure and improving
7:15 psychological and tactical adaptation
7:18 support to newly mobilized personnel.
7:21 Not entirely sure what that means.
7:22 Anyway, to increase safety and ensure
7:24 consistent training, General Cerski said
7:26 the military is going to be relocating
7:29 programs away from the frontline areas
7:30 where they can. Bearing in mind the
7:32 ballistic missile threat means that
7:34 everywhere is under some sort of threat.
7:35 They're going to be assigning each army
7:38 corps to certain training grounds in the
7:40 center and the west of the country.
7:42 Serski said, "We have no right to be
7:43 careless with the safety of our
7:45 servicemen. I have issued the necessary
7:48 orders to address the identified
7:52 problems." Very good. You might say, why
7:54 is it taking till now? I mean, in the
7:56 white heat of the chaotic first few
7:58 months, it was probably just a question
8:01 of get everyone very basic training,
8:03 give them a gun, give them a job, point
8:05 them east. However, I think for the last
8:07 couple of years, they would have had
8:09 room to really look at the training
8:11 pipeline. I'm a little surprised it's
8:14 taken this long, but you know, I'm not
8:17 there. into Russia and the SBU.
8:19 Ukraine's security service and the
8:21 Ukrainian general staff say that their
8:24 forces destroyed 20 fuel tanks, 70% of
8:26 the total in the drone strike on
8:28 Russia's Terriyuk seapport in Krasador
8:30 Cry last Friday. We reported it but we
8:33 didn't have these stats. This comes from
8:35 Ukraine's general staff. Then a source
8:37 in the SPU, the security service of
8:39 Ukraine speaking to our colleagues at
8:40 the Kev Independent says that they
8:42 targeted in that strike a liqufied
8:45 natural gas terminal in Russia's Terri
8:47 Seap port with drones triggering a
8:49 massive fire that's been burning for the
8:52 last 3 days. According to the source,
8:54 the strike caused fires in more than 20
8:57 of the site's 30 storage tanks, an area
9:00 covering 3,000 square meters. They also
9:02 released a video to go with it, which is
9:03 mostly orange because everything's on
9:06 fire. Now, Russia says that it shot down
9:08 280 Ukrainian drones in the last 24
9:11 hours. There are unverified reports I've
9:14 seen, but indicating something has hit
9:16 places in occupied Crimea. And then in
9:18 Ingashetta, that is a Russian region
9:20 bordering Georgia, Kranadar, just
9:22 mentioned it, but that's to the east of
9:24 the Kursed Bridge and also Vorones and
9:26 Leetsk. They are regions between Ukraine
9:29 and Moscow. Russia also says it shot
9:32 down a Ukrainian SU27 fighter jet
9:34 yesterday. I have seen that verified
9:36 elsewhere. However, Tim White, a
9:37 freelance journalist at always worth a
9:39 follow. This morning, he says that
9:41 Russia also lost two pilots yesterday
9:44 and probably more today with news of a
9:47 Russian army A&22 transport aircraft,
9:49 one of the big antinoffs, crashing in
9:51 the Yvodsko reservoir, that's in Ianovo
9:54 region of Russia about 300ks northeast
9:56 of Moscow. Seven people were apparently
9:59 on board. None have been found. Divers
10:00 are searching in the reservoir for the
10:03 bodies. Tim says it's the second A&22 to
10:05 crash in the same region in the last 18
10:09 months and was the last operational one
10:11 of its type in Russia. He says it was
10:13 there were reports that that plane was
10:15 decommissioned last year but Russia is
10:17 so short of cargo planes it remained in service.
10:19 service.
10:21 Can't verify that but interesting if
10:23 that's a maintenance failure. Now then,
10:24 a little further east from there, Russia
10:26 says 14 people were injured, including a
10:28 child, according to local authorities,
10:30 in a Ukrainian drone attack on the city
10:33 of Chbuksari. That's in the Chuvash
10:35 region. There's imagery on social media
10:37 purportedly showing a drone strike into
10:39 an apartment block. Tim says that
10:41 Ukraine's target may well have been the
10:43 Chbukari number two thermal power plant
10:47 or the VNIR Progress defense factory,
10:49 which we reported was hit a few weeks
10:51 ago. that is only 500 meters away from
10:53 where this blast occurred. And just
10:55 finally for me, Francis, the Lithuanian
10:57 government has declared a nationwide
10:59 emergency situation today due to
11:02 repeated cases of balloons flying into
11:04 Lithuania from Barus. We talked a little
11:05 bit about this yesterday, I think, or
11:08 maybe Monday. Now, the move's going to
11:10 allow state institutions to coordinate
11:12 responses more effectively and involve
11:14 the military. Lithuania says that
11:16 balloons have regularly been flown into
11:18 their airspace carrying contraband
11:20 mostly posing a risk to national
11:23 security, human life, property, and the
11:25 environment. Lithuanian officials have
11:27 accused Bellarusian dictator Alexander
11:30 Lucenko of deliberately allowing and
11:32 thereby weaponizing this practice of
11:34 floating the balloons over, describing
11:36 as part of a wider hybrid attack on
11:38 their country. Now, I think this is an
11:39 interesting test case because on the one
11:41 hand, you could say, "Ah, it's only a
11:43 balloon. seems like an overreaction to
11:45 use armed force to bring it down, but
11:48 you know, it could easily escalate. And
11:49 without getting all Tom Clansancy about
11:51 the whole thing, but these things, if
11:52 they're carrying cigarettes now, they
11:53 could be carrying weapons or explosives
11:55 tomorrow. We've seen them shut down
11:58 airspace already. Imagine a whole fleet
12:00 of these things floated across Lithuania
12:03 and elsewhere on the first day of some
12:06 potential military provocation, shutting
12:08 down airspace. We know Putin and uh
12:10 well, Lucenko, but does what he's told.
12:13 We know Putin likes to push until they
12:15 meet resistance and so why would he stop
12:17 even if it is only a balloon with a few
12:19 on board? Why would he stop? So
12:21 yeah, interesting to see what Lithuania
12:23 and NATO does next. That's us up to
12:25 date, Francis.
12:26 >> Well, thanks Tom and to everyone who
12:28 came to say hello at the Telegraph carol
12:30 service at some brides Fleet Street
12:32 yesterday. One lady tried to argue that
12:34 Oh come all ye faithful is the best
12:37 festive tune followed closely behind by
12:38 Wham's Last Christmas.
12:41 >> Wrong. bold choices. I'm a fan of the
12:43 Sussex Carol personally. But anyway, you
12:45 rejoin us everyone as President Trump's
12:47 peace plan is seemingly on the brink
12:50 after President Zilinski insisted after
12:52 that emergency summit in Downing Street
12:54 yesterday, Ukraine had no obligation to
12:57 seed territory to Russia. After that
12:58 meeting, Zilinski before hopping on a
13:01 flight to Brussels said, "We have no
13:02 right under the law, under the law of
13:05 Ukraine, under our constitution or under
13:06 international law to be honest, and we
13:09 have no moral right. That is what we are
13:12 fighting for. Now you may remember back
13:14 in February I was invited to that small
13:18 round table with Zilinski where sensing
13:20 this might be where we ended up. I asked
13:22 him whether there was any scenario where
13:24 he would agree to a ceasefire or to a
13:26 peace deal that would see territory
13:29 seeded to Moscow it does not currently
13:33 control. He was unequivocal. That would
13:35 not be a peace deal. He said that would
13:37 be a capitulation.
13:39 Now, some would argue that still leaves
13:41 him room for legal maneuver. That
13:43 territory may not be handed over in a
13:46 legal sense, but de facto. Yet, that
13:49 clearly wasn't the intent behind what he
13:53 said back then. This is a longstanding
13:54 red line.
13:57 It's understood KE is set to send Trump
13:59 a Europebacked counter proposal later
14:01 today, balancing out the previous draft
14:03 and rejecting Russia's demand to give up
14:05 the entire eastern Donbass. We don't
14:08 know the full details of that proposal
14:11 yet. Interestingly though, number 10 has
14:14 voiced optimism a deal may be close.
14:15 This is the furthest we've got in four
14:17 years, said the prime minister
14:18 spokesman, and we welcome the fact that
14:20 these talks are continuing at every
14:23 level. However, it's worth bearing in
14:25 mind that no government at the moment
14:27 wants to be signaling negativity in part
14:30 not to risk the wrath of the Americans.
14:31 At the same time as that meeting was
14:33 happening in London, British Foreign
14:35 Secretary Vet Cooper was in Washington
14:36 meeting US Secretary of State Marco
14:39 Rubio trying to build bridges.
14:42 It seems the most considerable progress
14:44 yesterday was on the frozen Russian
14:46 assets. London is now hopeful a deal
14:48 could be done between European leaders
14:51 within days. Yet whether it's all the
14:54 assets or just some of them is unclear.
14:55 And thanks to those listeners in
14:57 Belgium, the chief blocker at the
14:59 moment, we understand, who've written to
15:01 us giving us the mood music there. I'm
15:03 going to reflect on some of that in a
15:05 future episode. Now, if those frozen
15:07 assets are unlocked, then the Trump
15:09 administration isn't going to be happy
15:11 as they've clearly signaled they want
15:13 all of the assets on the table for their
15:15 negotiations with the Kremlin. It seems
15:17 that tensions between the US and Europe
15:19 are frankly spilling over with
15:21 Chancellor Mets's remarks yesterday that
15:25 he was skeptical about American demands
15:28 and that sharing by Trump shortly after
15:30 yesterday's talks of a New York Post
15:33 article titled Impotent Europeans can
15:35 only fume as Trump sidelines them for
15:38 Ukraine deal. Since then, in an
15:39 interview with Politico published this
15:41 morning, he denounced Europe as a
15:45 decaying group of nations led by weak
15:48 people, belittling the traditional US
15:51 allies for failing to control migration
15:53 and to end the war and signaling he
15:55 would endorse European political
15:57 candidates aligned with his own vision
16:00 for the continent. Something also stated
16:02 very clearly in the new US national
16:04 security strategy published last week,
16:07 which we discussed. Further evidence of
16:08 frustration in the White House can be
16:10 found from reports that Trump's envoys
16:13 pushed Zilinski for immediate consent to
16:14 seed Ukrainian territory to Russia
16:17 during their call on December the 6th,
16:19 with their peace proposal worsening
16:21 after their trip to Moscow, offering
16:23 tougher terms on territorial concessions
16:25 and control over the Zaparisia power
16:28 plant while sidest stepping apparently
16:32 any real security guarantees pledges.
16:34 Clearly, the envoys are under intense
16:37 pressure now from Trump to get a deal
16:39 done so that economic ties with Russia
16:41 can resume and have taken the decision
16:43 to put pressure on Keev rather than
16:46 Moscow. As an Applebound writes in the
16:48 Atlantic, quite a few Ukrainians and
16:51 indeed many Europeans believe that the
16:53 investigation which brought down Yermach
16:55 has somehow been assisted by the Trump
16:57 administration as a way of weakening
17:00 Zalinski to force him to capitulate.
17:02 She then goes on to underscore an irony
17:05 here. Wickoff and Kushner are not taking
17:07 kickbacks on government contracts as
17:09 some Ukrainian officials are now accused
17:11 of doing. The corruption they represent
17:13 is more profound. They're using the
17:16 tools of the American state in a manner
17:17 that happens to benefit their friends
17:20 and business partners even while they do
17:22 terrible damage to America's allies,
17:24 American alliances, and America's
17:27 reputation. This is a conflict of
17:29 interest on a grand scale with no real
17:31 precedent in modern American foreign
17:33 policy. In Ukraine, the state itself is
17:35 investigating the government, the
17:37 cabinet, even the president's closest
17:39 advisers. By contrast, it is impossible
17:42 to imagine Cash Patel's FBI
17:44 investigating anyone in Trump's White
17:46 House. Any Russian who investigates
17:50 Putin goes to jail. The word corruption
17:52 has many nuances and we aren't using
17:55 enough of them when we talk about Ukraine.
17:56 Ukraine.
17:57 So, an interesting piece there which
17:59 we'll link to in the show notes. And
18:01 just as a side tangent on that point
18:03 about America's reputation, CNN has a
18:05 fascinating exclusive at the moment that
18:06 I point you to on a previously
18:09 undisclosed secret mission in 2017. So
18:11 during during Trump's first term when
18:13 the US extracted from Russia one of its
18:16 highest level covert sources inside the
18:18 Kremlin partly because of concerns that
18:19 Trump is in his administration
18:22 repeatedly mishandled classified
18:23 intelligence that could contribute to
18:27 exposing the covert source as a spy. But
18:30 to wrap up Dom your Valentine Czech
18:32 President Petra Pavl is in the news
18:33 again today.
18:35 >> Good man. Having formally appointed the
18:37 billionaire leader of the populist ANO
18:40 party Andre Babis as prime minister, his
18:42 cabinet will include the anti-EU and
18:45 pro-Russian SPD party and your favorite
18:47 domists for themselves.
18:49 >> That party whose main agenda is opposing
18:51 the EU's climate policy. It's got to be
18:52 one of the best named parties in Europe,
18:54 that surely. It's not yet clear what
18:56 impact this will have on Czecha's
18:58 support for Ukraine. But Parville has
18:59 been very vocal in saying that he
19:02 intends to wield considerable influence
19:04 on its foreign policy. So I think watch
19:07 this space on that one. Meanwhile,
19:10 Zilinski's in Rome meeting Pope Leo I
19:12 14th at Castell Gandalfo, the Pontiff's
19:15 hilltop vacation retreat used by the
19:18 popes since 1626. Sounds like the
19:20 perfect place for a festive drink. He'll
19:21 later meet Georgia Maloney before
19:23 sharing the revised peace plan with the
19:25 US I mentioned earlier on. He'll also be
19:27 trying to decide, I think, who will be
19:29 the new head of his office after Yerax's
19:31 resignation. We named the candidates
19:33 yesterday. Among them, Dennis Mihal,
19:35 Ukraine's defense minister, digital
19:36 transformation minister Michaela
19:38 Federov, military intelligence chief
19:40 Krillo Badanov, and deputy president's
19:43 office head Pablo Palisa. We understand
19:45 the appointment was originally meant to
19:48 be made last Thursday, but Zilinski held
19:51 off. And since we mentioned the papacy,
19:52 one last story. We learned last week
19:54 that Pope Francis, who died back in
19:56 April, of course, left money in his will
19:59 to purchase ambulances for Ukraine. This
20:02 was revealed by Sister Luchia Karam, who
20:03 has been traveling to Ukraine on
20:05 humanitarian missions since the start of
20:07 the invasion, and said Francis had
20:09 promised support, but didn't actually
20:12 expect him to enshrine it in his will.
20:14 Now, as we've talked about many times on
20:16 the podcast, ambulances save hundreds of
20:18 lives each month. So, if you are looking
20:20 for a cause to donate to this season,
20:22 that might be worth your consideration.
20:24 We featured on this podcast the NGO
20:27 Ukraine Focus before, who I joined on
20:29 route to Ukraine last year. stopping off
20:30 at the D-Day anniversary to hear
20:33 President Biden say Ukraine was fighting
20:35 for the same values as those Americans
20:38 who died to liberate Europe. I just
20:40 mentioned that because it feels like a
20:44 long, long time ago indeed. But let's
20:46 turn now to Russia and our Russia
20:48 correspondent on Ukraine, the latest,
20:50 James Kilner. Now James, at the moment
20:53 you're back in West Yorkshire and I
20:54 understand that you were in central
20:56 Huddersfield overseeing well I hope you
20:57 were anyway the Huddersfield
21:00 International Crisp Festival and I was
21:01 reading the article that you sent across
21:02 about this absolutely fascinating stuff
21:04 but I think one perhaps for us to focus
21:07 on instead in our final thoughts James
21:09 to more important matters these peace
21:12 talks. Welcome back. What exactly is the
21:14 Russian press saying about all this? Are
21:17 they thinking that peace is imminent?
21:18 Frances, just to clarify, the
21:20 international Chris Championship
21:22 happened in October. I was at the pub
21:25 where the Chris Championship was staged.
21:28 Uh the sportsman's arms in central
21:29 Huntersfield where they do XM points.
21:31 But putting that aside, back to the
21:34 issue of the day, the line in the
21:36 Russian media continues to be consistent
21:38 about where they are on these peace
21:41 talks. They're still projecting the
21:42 Europeans and the Ukrainians as the
21:44 wararmongers and how the Kremlin and
21:47 Putin are suing for peace with the US.
21:50 The US very much the good guys. There've
21:52 been such a change from before the
21:54 presidential election in the US last
21:56 year when Biden was the US president.
21:58 The US were the bad boys and now under
21:59 Trump they're very much the good boys
22:01 according to the Russian media and it's
22:04 the Europeans and the Ukrainians who are
22:06 scuppering what should be a natural
22:09 Russia US peace deal. The Kremlin very
22:11 much wants to do a deal with US. It
22:13 doesn't really want to do a deal with
22:16 Ukraine. Various headlines saying that
22:17 the contacts of the American side
22:19 continue for existing channels. This is
22:22 after the the Wickoff Kushner visit to
22:24 the Kremlin. So the Kremlin's very much
22:26 saying we're still negotiating. We still
22:28 want peace here. It's the Europeans and
22:30 the Ukrainians who are messing this up.
22:33 This is all sort of laced through as it
22:35 has been throughout France's with
22:38 increased posturing increased sort of
22:41 lacing the media with tales of heroism
22:43 from Russian soldiers on the front line
22:46 daring do etc reminding Russian public
22:49 of the soldiers and of their legacy and
22:50 today is is the defender of the
22:52 fatherland day in Russia and only today
22:54 Putin was handing out here are Russia
22:56 medals to military guys inside the
23:00 Kremlin. So they are very much as we've
23:02 been reporting throughout presenting the
23:04 Kremlin as as people as the team that
23:07 wants peace but also pushing the front
23:08 line. So there's a double-edged sword
23:10 here about what they're trying to project.
23:11 project.
23:13 >> Well, thanks very much James. Now that
23:15 brings us on to the next I think big
23:18 story of the week in the Russian sphere
23:20 and that of course is this new law which
23:23 will see 100,000 military reservists do
23:25 two months of training. Can you tell us
23:26 a little bit more about this?
23:28 >> Yeah, right. So this again feeds into
23:30 what we've just been talking about. I
23:32 feel it's very much, you know, we want
23:33 to do a peace with the good guys. We
23:35 want to do a peace in Ukraine, but also
23:38 we're prepared to fight on. So this was
23:41 a law Putin signed yesterday where he
23:44 called up 100,000 military reser. If you
23:45 remember, the Russia only set up its
23:48 reserve army in 2015 after Crimeir was
23:50 annexed 12 months earlier. So it's
23:53 called up 100,000 military reser two
23:55 months training from beginning of next
23:58 year. Now, this doesn't automatically
23:59 mean that after their two months
24:01 training, they're going to get sent off
24:05 to Ukraine. But it does come as your
24:07 listeners will probably know a couple of
24:10 months after reser were mobilized into
24:13 anti- drone units by various regions of
24:16 Russia and also after parliament passed
24:19 a law in mid-occtober I think it was
24:22 which allowed reser for the first time
24:25 to be deployed alongside regular
24:28 soldiers in Ukraine. So Putin and the
24:31 Kremlin haven't said they're sending an
24:32 extra 100,000 military reserves to
24:34 Ukraine. That's not what has been said
24:37 here, but it is moving in the direction.
24:40 It feels like mobilization by stealth.
24:44 Uh it feels like this is part of the way
24:46 the Kremlin is able to project pressure
24:48 to put pressure on on Ukraine and its
24:51 European allies at a time when it's
24:52 trying to get the best peace deal
24:55 possible with increasingly it seems the
24:57 help of the US. So I think this is
24:59 another tool in the Kman's armory. We're
25:01 going to have to be very watchful the
25:03 end of February, March time and see what
25:05 happens with these 100,000 reserves.
25:07 >> Interesting. Well, thanks very much,
25:09 James. Now, of course, we've spoken with
25:11 you many, many times about the economic
25:14 picture in Russia at the moment and its
25:16 various oscillations, but generally it's
25:19 becoming more negative the longer the
25:21 war is going on. And I know that you've
25:23 been looking into VAT tax rises. Yeah,
25:25 the reason I've been looking at this
25:27 again, it's been spiking a bit on the
25:29 Kremlin's propaganda outlets, this
25:31 newspaper propaganda outlets. And this
25:33 seems to be because it it's triggering
25:36 rare sort of anti- Kremlin sentiment.
25:40 There was a protest in its town in
25:43 Siberia at the end of November where 150
25:46 people gathered for this ostensively
25:50 pro-Putin, pro-Russia rally. This is
25:52 really the only way of holding a some
25:54 sort of protest or public rally in
25:56 Russia these days. They're banned. You
25:57 have to get permission from local
25:59 authorities. They're only likely to give
26:01 permission if it's sort of a pro Putin,
26:03 pro-Russia rally. So the way around it
26:04 is they apply for a nationalist
26:06 patriotic rally with the Russian flags
26:08 and slogans in favor of Putin. And then
26:10 they appeal, this is something which is
26:12 fairly common in Russia. They appeal
26:15 directly to the president as the the
26:17 embodiment of the state to do something
26:18 about this situation which they're
26:21 aggravated by. And in this case it was
26:23 this VAT tax rise uh which is due to
26:24 come in on January the 1st which is
26:28 raising VAT from 20% to 22%. And these
26:30 apparently according to reports were
26:31 local business leaders. They were
26:32 complaining that this is going to really
26:34 impact their business. It's going to
26:36 cause a load of redundancies. It's going
26:38 to cause a load of diminished business
26:40 sales. It comes at a time as as we've
26:42 increasingly been talking about
26:44 inflation's rising you know the war
26:48 debts mounting up jobs are diminishing
26:50 etc etc and now the start of this long
26:52 Russian winter season where you got
26:56 utilities seen their budget slash street
26:58 lighting quality roads upkeep of
27:00 municipal apartments all this sort of
27:02 stuff so yeah heating outages power
27:04 outages you know so these are long
27:05 winters in Russia so people getting
27:08 increasingly annoyed they know exactly
27:11 why the ATS be increased and the Kremlin
27:12 is very specific about it when it
27:14 announced the rise about two months ago.
27:16 It said it's going to be increased to
27:18 pay for the war in Ukraine. Um and these
27:20 little tension points are really
27:23 important to to highlight. If you
27:25 remember I came on the podcast a couple
27:27 of months ago or six weeks ago was
27:29 talking about how there was a protest in
27:32 Balib Bosto where importers of cars
27:34 there were getting very grumpy about an
27:36 extra tax been slapped on on on car
27:38 imports. So this is the same sort of
27:41 rare just tension threshold that it's
27:44 important to notice. Putin himself seems
27:46 to have noticed. This is also important.
27:48 He was at a big government strategy
27:50 meeting yesterday and in it he talked
27:52 about various different things. France
27:54 is one of his pet projects is trying to
27:56 increase birth rate in in Russia and
27:58 he's failing to do that and he was
28:00 grumpy about that. But he also spoke
28:03 about the VAT rise which is to my
28:05 knowledge maybe the first time he's
28:07 directly spoken about it and he blamed
28:08 it on the central bank. He said well
28:11 this is a central bank idea to raise
28:13 taxes. It's only going to be temporary.
28:16 This was his line. I mean of course this
28:18 is a Kremlin project and of course it's
28:19 unlikely to be temporary but this was
28:23 his line. The point is here Russians are
28:24 frustrated. You can see this by this
28:27 rare protest. This frustration is being
28:30 reported back to Putin who is then
28:33 commenting on it live at a big Kremlin
28:35 shindig which is then reported on by all
28:38 the Kremlin media. So interesting
28:40 dynamics going on there. Francis.
28:42 >> Thanks, James. And I know that Dom's got
28:44 a a question as well in a bit, but just
28:46 I have to ask first of all because it's
28:49 relating to the news this week, of
28:52 course, Putin being in India for this
28:55 meeting with Modi and various different
28:57 deals being signed and we knew that we
28:59 would be having you on this week. So,
29:01 very interested in your take on some of
29:03 the major things that we've learned from
29:06 this and perhaps signed even. Well, I
29:08 think it was a fairly scripted
29:11 opticsheavy visit by Putin. For Putin's
29:13 propaganda machine, he really needed
29:16 these photo shots of him laughing in the
29:18 back of a car with Modi, having private
29:21 dinners, these great inspection of the
29:22 guard, this sort of thing. He needed all
29:24 that and he, you know, he definitely got
29:26 all that. And then there was some sort
29:30 of there were illusions to deals around
29:33 weapons around joint production of of
29:35 passenger jet this sort of thing. I
29:38 think one of the most important
29:41 policy outcomes of this trip, which
29:42 really went under reportported in the
29:47 west anyway, was Putin needed Modi to
29:50 agree to basically sending what could
29:52 amount to be hundreds of thousands of
29:54 Indian migrant workers to Russia to plug
29:56 gaps in the workforce in Russia. This
29:59 was trailed a week or 10 days before
30:02 Putin's trip to Delhi and then coverage
30:04 of it really sort of dropped off. But
30:06 we've now had a first deputy prime
30:08 minister Dennis Manurov. He's has popped
30:10 up and said that Russia will now be
30:13 opening itself to quote an unlimited
30:16 migration of workers from India. And the
30:17 numbers are quite staggering. Like he
30:21 was talking about Russia needing 800,000
30:23 workers to plug gaps in this industry
30:25 alone and another 1.5 million to plug
30:28 gaps in trade and logistics. Now this is
30:30 a critical deal for the creme. Really
30:31 critical. I'd argue is the most
30:33 important thing that Putin came away
30:35 with. Although it's much more
30:36 complicated for mainstream western media
30:39 to really get into for India it creates
30:42 all sorts of optic problems here. For
30:46 them basically India became the biggest
30:49 buyer of Russian crude oil once the war
30:51 in Ukraine has started. So it was in
30:52 many ways propping up the Kremlin war
30:56 machine that way. Now it may be propping
30:58 up the Kremlin war machine by literally
30:59 sending labor to Russia. This is
31:01 something that North Korea has been
31:03 doing. The context with this here we
31:05 know that North Korea sent tens of
31:06 thousands I think you know 20,000 and
31:09 one one go another 20,000 another go to
31:11 to work on farms and in light factory
31:13 industries around St. in Petersburg as
31:16 well as soldiers for the Russian army.
31:18 But here we have the the prospect of
31:21 Indian workers really really going to
31:23 Russia and working in industry which
31:25 will be helping the Russian war machine.
31:28 So for my mind that is the most
31:31 interesting potentially spicy part of
31:34 the Putin Modi bilateral diplomatic
31:36 talks. Hi James, great to chat again
31:38 mate. On the India visit, I saw some
31:42 comment that the lack of very public
31:44 pronouncements about weapons deals and
31:46 all the rest of it that you might expect
31:48 at the end of a big bilat such as this
31:50 spoke volumes. And the comment I saw was
31:52 that that that must mean that even more
31:54 had been done behind closed doors that
31:55 we don't know about. And it was sort of
31:57 styled as this is even worse for
31:58 Ukraine. I mean, is that how these
32:00 things happen? I've always expected if
32:02 they've done some great deals that they
32:04 take every opportunity to trumpet it. Or
32:06 do you think it's significant that we
32:07 didn't really see an awful lot in public
32:09 at the end of the visit?
32:10 >> I did see some headlines. You're right.
32:12 There wasn't like a great pronouncement
32:15 at the end of the Modi Putin talks, but
32:17 there were some leaks about building
32:19 joint production of a Russian um
32:21 passenger jet in India. There were some
32:25 sort of slight tendrils about getting
32:27 Russian missile supplies up and running
32:29 again to India, etc. But no hard and
32:31 firm stuff. I do think the stuff will
32:33 leak out. I suspect it's very hard for
32:36 India to to be seen to be doing hard
32:39 deals with Russia. And I I think for the
32:41 Kremlin, the photo was just as important
32:42 as the hard deals. They're realistic
32:44 about what they're going to get India to
32:47 sign off on. I do think this Labor
32:49 migration deal, which has now been
32:52 leaked out or is being worked on, but is
32:53 definitely something Kremlin is very
32:55 keen on, is probably the most important
32:57 element of what Putin was doing down
32:59 there. And that has been kept under
33:01 wraps a bit. The prospect of Indian
33:03 workers like I've been saying working in
33:05 Russian industry which is propping up a
33:08 war in Ukraine is very controversial is
33:10 absolutely what I think the Kremlin
33:12 would like to see happen. It's much
33:13 harder to pull off. So they're
33:16 pragmatic. They'll be deciding how to
33:18 dress this up and seeing really where
33:19 they can pull it off.
33:21 >> Yeah. And just to go back a stage from
33:22 what you you were saying earlier on, you
33:23 were talking about the tension
33:25 threshold, the communication between
33:28 Putin and society over the economic
33:30 impact of the war. How much wiggle room
33:34 do you think he has to say to put the
33:36 rise in VAT and other economic factors
33:38 at the foot of the war? Because it's a
33:40 special military operation. Okay. It's
33:42 just a small little it's basically an
33:44 exercise. It's not a war. So, does he
33:46 have the room to say this is going to
33:49 hit you in the pocket or people will
33:50 people turn around and say, "Well, hang
33:51 on. I thought it was just some very
33:54 minor military scrap." I mean, what do
33:55 you think?
33:57 >> Well, I don't think the Russian public
33:59 were ever really pulled into that race.
34:01 I think that was for a western or
34:02 diplomatic audience. When I was there
34:04 last October, I got a very strong sense
34:06 that everyone knew exactly what was
34:08 going on. They they have to be very
34:09 candid when they talk. But everyone I
34:12 spoke to candidly said that they knew
34:13 people who've been killed in Ukraine or
34:16 combat badly injured and how inflation
34:18 was all linked to the war in Ukraine.
34:19 Their neighbors had disappeared fighting
34:21 the war in Ukraine. People know that
34:24 this war is happening. The Russia sphere
34:26 is so fluid that everyone has relatives
34:29 or friends in Kiev and Moscow and St.
34:31 Petersburg and Kazan and and and Hiv
34:34 etc. So people understand this. And I
34:37 made the point earlier when the VAT rise
34:39 was announced at the budget a couple of
34:41 months ago. The Crown specifically said
34:43 this was needed to pay for the war in
34:46 Ukraine. So I mean people know exactly
34:48 what's going on in Russia and their
34:51 right to protest is severely restricted.
34:53 Otherwise I think you would see a lot
34:55 more protest but it is too dangerous to
34:57 them where it's outlawed and it's and
34:59 it's basically too dangerous to break
35:02 that ban. Like I said, the way round it
35:06 is to apply for a patriotic rally with
35:09 with lots of Russian flags and proputin
35:11 posters, etc., and then appeal to the
35:13 president personally to change an
35:15 awkward situation, be it a rise in VAT
35:18 or extra taxes on on imported cars. But
35:20 it's very very important to track this
35:22 sort of stuff and especially important
35:25 to track it when it appears to trigger a
35:27 reaction from Putin because he will be
35:30 getting fed up information through his
35:32 own channels that people are angry or
35:34 irritated about VAT. And he's had to go
35:35 on record basically. This is the point
35:37 I'm trying to make. Had to go on record
35:40 and confront it directly to the to the
35:41 Russian public. He's done what he always
35:43 does. He's battered away. He's blamed
35:44 someone else. And he said, "Hey, this is
35:46 just a temporary problem. Don't
35:48 overthink it. >> [music]
36:07 >> Dom, where do you want to leave
36:08 listeners? First of all,
36:09 >> thanks France. There's a couple of
36:10 thoughts if I may. Well, two linked
36:12 thoughts. I'll point folks to a
36:14 interesting piece in the Financial Times
36:15 by Gideon Rackman, the chief foreign
36:17 affairs commentator. He was talking
36:19 about the United States National
36:20 Security Strategy that came out last
36:22 Friday. We spoke about it. Uh, God, the
36:23 days are blowing. I think it was
36:25 yesterday. Uh, could have been the day
36:27 before. Anyway, Gideon makes the point.
36:28 He says, "The national security strategy
36:30 makes clear that there is now a battle
36:33 underway between two different versions
36:35 of the West, which pits the US and
36:38 Europe against each other. The Trump
36:39 administration view of Western
36:41 civilization is based on race,
36:44 Christianity, and nationalism. The
36:46 European version is a liberal view
36:48 founded on democracy, human rights, and
36:50 the rule of law, including international
36:52 law. In Europe, the biggest threats to
36:53 the liberal version of Western
36:55 civilization are the far-right parties
36:57 that the US is promoting and the Russian
36:59 state that the Trump administration is
37:02 courting. Little wonder that the Kremlin
37:04 senses an opportunity. Words there by
37:05 Gideon Rackman. Interesting that that
37:07 split and I thought of that in the
37:09 context of an email we got from Melis in
37:11 Germany. Melis, thank you so much for
37:13 getting in touch. He said, I'm from East
37:14 Germany and served in both the East
37:16 German Army and the West German army,
37:18 the Bundesv. I'm still an active
37:20 reservist in the Bundesv. I don't
37:22 understand the pro-Russians in Germany
37:23 who defend a system that did nothing
37:25 good in East Germany during the 50-year
37:28 occupation. Germany rightly paid massive
37:30 reparations after World War II. We lost
37:31 a great part of the territories in the
37:33 East, and we paid substantial
37:35 reparations, at least in East Germany.
37:37 During the occupation, the Russians told
37:39 us that the Germans could no longer be
37:41 trusted after World War II because they
37:43 hadn't fought against Hitler and the war
37:46 themselves. Therefore, Germany had to
37:48 remain occupied. The same standard the
37:49 Russians applied to us back then should
37:52 also apply to themselves. I've lived in
37:54 both systems and I'm still grateful that
37:56 the democratic system won and I will
37:58 defend it wherever and however I can.
38:00 Europe has to get stronger, more
38:02 independent and has to stand together
38:04 against Russia. No one else will help
38:06 us. Thanks Melissa. As I said, thank you
38:07 for that email from Germany. I just
38:09 thought that was an interesting view of
38:11 this idea about as hard power, soft
38:14 power, its its values, its nationalism,
38:16 things that are going on at the moment.
38:17 Russia's making hay. Putin's trying to
38:19 drive the wedge. But I thought a lot
38:20 came out of the national security
38:22 strategy last Friday. Well worth a read
38:24 if you've not done so. Lots of comment
38:26 out there, ours included, but what it
38:28 means and you know, is it a fundamental
38:30 shift, a fundamental break in in the
38:32 West? Well, thanks very much, Tom. It
38:33 sounds like a lot also came out of the
38:35 Huddersfield International Crisps
38:36 Festival because I've just been reading
38:38 about it after James was signaling about
38:40 it earlier on. Sounds fascinating.
38:41 Apparently, all of the continents of the
38:43 world were represented there. Spanish
38:45 entries, Italian entries, Iranian
38:47 entries, all coming from there. And the
38:50 the winner, Hammond Coleman's mustard
38:53 flavor variety based in Wales, beat 160
38:55 varieties of crisps and snacks to take
38:57 the crown. So, I think next year, James,
39:00 you're going to have to be our
39:02 representative there and uh and give us
39:04 a full report on what takes place
39:06 because I am a massive Crisp fan, as
39:08 long-standing listeners will know.
39:10 Indeed, some actually sent some obscure
39:12 flavors from around the world and which
39:13 were well, some of them were deeply
39:15 suspicious. That's all I'll say. But
39:16 Dom, I think is still traumatized from
39:19 when on one of our train trips to Kev I
39:20 was munching them in the middle of the
39:22 night. But yes, so James, where would
39:23 you like to leave listeners? I'm
39:24 guessing it's not going to be with the
39:26 Huddersfield International Christmas
39:28 Festival, but you know, surprise us.
39:31 >> No, it's not Francis, but as you know, I
39:33 consider Huddersfield to center of the
39:36 known universe. So why wouldn't it have
39:38 an international Chris Festival? But I
39:40 will leave listeners on a interesting
39:43 note that I found this morning. This is
39:46 the death of a Russian diplomat.
39:47 Actually, Russia's ambassador to North
39:49 Korea, a guy called Alexander Mantis
39:51 Gorda, 70 years old. He died uh
39:54 beginning this week. Uh the actual cause
39:56 of death hasn't been released, but the
39:58 the significance of his death does seem
40:01 worth talking about very quickly. The
40:04 context here is that the Russian
40:07 approach to commissioning ambassadors
40:09 differs slightly from the UK western
40:11 approach. They like to put someone in
40:14 place for a long time, really embed
40:16 them, but that person becomes a real
40:19 hinge for Russian foreign policy and
40:22 relations with the host country, etc.
40:24 The UK system seems much more carousel
40:27 like. But anyway, this guy Masuga, he'd
40:30 been the ambassador there since 2014,
40:33 but he'd spent his entire career as a
40:36 diplomat in and out of North Korea,
40:39 furthering Soviet or Russian relations.
40:42 He spoke Korean fluently apparently and
40:45 according to this very sort of unusually
40:46 floorid statement by the Russian
40:48 Ministry of Foreign Affairs was
40:51 absolutely instrumental in pushing North
40:54 Korea Russia relations up to this
40:56 stratospheric level they're at now. As
40:58 your uh listeners will know only too
41:00 well, North Korea has been a huge ally
41:03 of of Russia in the last few years. sent
41:06 soldiers to to fight alongside Russian
41:08 soldiers and it sent migrant workers to
41:11 to help the Russian economy. Now the
41:12 this Russian statement the Russian
41:14 foreign ministry statement said that
41:16 Matagora was one of the most outstanding
41:18 I'm quote quoting a direct quote here
41:19 one of the most outstanding
41:20 representatives of the Russian
41:23 diplomatic school and made an invaluable
41:26 contribution into boosting North Korea
41:28 Russia relations up to up to this very
41:30 high level and was the forefront of the
41:32 most intensive work being carried out.
41:34 It then goes on to say that he was an
41:36 ideological inspirer, the driving force
41:39 and the locomotive of the current very
41:41 strong Russia and North Korea relations.
41:43 And then it says this is a tremendous
41:46 irreparable loss. This ladies and
41:47 gentlemen and listeners of the podcast
41:50 is a remarkable statement by the Russian
41:51 foreign foreign minister. I've never
41:54 anything quite so emotive. I don't know
41:56 whether this is going to impact North
41:58 Korea Russia relations in any way, but
42:00 it does sound like the Russian foreign
42:02 ministry and the its embassy in North
42:04 Korea has taken a hit with the death of
42:12 >> Ukraine the latest is an original
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