0:03 Why did Melisandre choose Stannis? Jon
0:04 and Dany are both much stronger
0:07 candidates for Azora High reborn. So why
0:10 is she so convinced it's him? Hi
0:11 everyone, this is Robert. Welcome to
0:13 InDeepge Geek. If you like theories,
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0:16 Song of Ice and Fire, The Lord of the
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0:23 It seems obvious to us as we read A Song
0:26 of Ice and Fire that Stannis is not Azor
0:28 Ahai reborn. And Melisandre seems to be
0:30 trying very hard to make it look like he
0:32 is giving him a fiery looking sword, for
0:35 example. But when we finally get a POV
0:37 chapter from her perspective in A Dance
0:39 with Dragons, it also becomes apparent
0:42 that she does genuinely think he is Azor
0:44 Ahai reborn, despite all the evidence to
0:46 the contrary. And even when she
0:48 repeatedly looks into the flames for a
0:50 sight of Azor Ahai and sees not Stannis
0:55 but Snow with a capital S. So Jon Snow,
0:58 she may or may not be aware of it, but
1:00 the powers that be in her faith with
1:02 access to the same prophecies and seeing
1:04 things in the flames magic have also
1:06 independently concluded that it is Dany,
1:09 not Stannis, who was Azor Ahai reborn
1:10 and are throwing their weight behind
1:13 her. He hasn't brought any stone dragons
1:15 to life. And she had to provide him with
1:16 that fake lightbringer to try to
1:18 persuade people he was who she said he
1:22 was. So why? She doesn't seem
1:24 unintelligent and clearly does see true
1:26 visions in the flames. So why? What made
1:30 her so convinced it is Stannis? Well,
1:33 let's start with what she herself says?
1:35 Because her logic seems to be based on
1:37 two things. her understanding of ancient
1:40 prophecy and her interpretation of what
1:42 she has seen in the flames. She sets
1:44 this out in probably the clearest way
1:46 when talking to Davos.
1:48 The old maester, she says, looked at
1:51 Stannis and saw only a man. You see a
1:54 king. You are both wrong. He is the
1:56 lord's chosen, the warrior of fire. I
1:58 have seen him leading the fight against
2:00 the dark. I have seen it in the flames.
2:03 The flames do not lie. Else you would
2:06 not be here. It is written in prophecy
2:08 as well. When the red star bleeds and
2:10 the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be
2:13 born again amid smoke and salt to wake
2:15 dragons out of stone. The bleeding star
2:18 has come and gone and dragon stone is
2:20 the place of smoke and salt. Stannis
2:24 Baratheon is Azor Ahai reborn.
2:26 So that is her logic. And let's start
2:29 with the prophecy bit. Melisandre is
2:31 clearly well read. And although we don't
2:33 know huge amounts about her history, we
2:35 know a large part of it was in Ashai.
2:37 She is Melisandre of Ashai after all.
2:40 And Ashai is home to lots of obscure
2:42 ancient text and knowledge. So she
2:44 clearly knows what to look for when it
2:46 comes to Azora High reborn. From what
2:48 she said and confirmed by people like
2:51 Maester Aean, this includes someone born
2:54 amidst salt and smoke, someone whose
2:56 coming is heralded by a red comet
2:58 blazing across the sky. Or in a slightly
3:00 longer version, they will come after a
3:02 long summer when the stars bleed and the
3:04 cold breath of darkness falls heavy on
3:07 the world. Someone associated with
3:09 bringing a stone dragon or dragons to
3:12 life. Someone who will wield the fiery
3:14 sword lightbringer.
3:16 For completion's sake, there are a
3:18 couple more that seem more attached to
3:19 the Targaryen heavy prince that was
3:22 promised prophecy. Someone from the line
3:24 of Aries II and his wife Raela. someone
3:26 to whom belongs the song of ice and
3:29 fire. These seem more recent though and
3:31 Westerosybased rather than ancient and
3:34 from doctrine or Ashai based. So let's
3:36 leave them to one side for a moment.
3:38 Melisandre certainly seems to have. If
3:40 we also put to one side for a moment the
3:42 bits of prophecy that are clearly only
3:44 able to happen once Azor Ahai has
3:46 already been revealed in some way, like
3:48 them having the fiery sword
3:49 lightbringer, we are actually left with
3:51 a very short list of clues to look out
3:54 for. Chief among these is the idea of
3:57 someone being born or reborn amid salt
4:00 and smoke, as well as the long summer,
4:02 the red comet, and depending on your
4:04 reading, access to some stone dragons to
4:07 bring to life. We don't know exactly
4:09 when Melisandre started to search for
4:12 Azor Ahai reborn, but we do have a rough
4:14 idea of when she arrived in Dragonstone,
4:15 probably a handful of years before we
4:17 meet her in the story. If you want the
4:20 nerdy maths here, in a clash with kings,
4:23 so the year 299 AC, Littlefinger recalls
4:25 Varys telling the small council, quote,
4:29 "Some years passed," about her arrival.
4:30 Littlefinger was appointed to the small
4:34 council around the year 292, so sometime
4:36 after that, but a few years before 299,
4:41 so 294 or 295 seems reasonable. by which
4:43 time summer had been going on for five
4:45 or six years. That's already a long
4:47 summer by Wester Rosie standards, and
4:49 the prophecy talked of a long summer
4:52 heralding Azor Ahai reborn. So perhaps
4:54 Melisandre felt that the time was right
4:56 and she had to get to her mission of
4:58 identifying and supporting this new Azor Ahai.
4:59 Ahai.
5:01 The biggest clue about where she should
5:04 go was the salt and smoke bit, and she
5:06 decided that this must mean Dragonstone.
5:09 To be clear, in the books, Dragonstone
5:11 is not considered to be a pleasant place
5:13 to live by most people. It is a volcanic
5:15 island with steam bursting forth from
5:18 rocks, regular storms, and a smoky,
5:20 salty, sulfurous atmosphere. Added to
5:23 which the castle itself is basically
5:26 made of stone dragons. Lots of them.
5:27 They didn't really show this on the TV
5:29 show, but the architecture there is
5:33 very, very dragonheavy. Torch sconces
5:35 are shaped like clawed dragon hands.
5:38 archways like dragon tails, the kitchen
5:40 chimney like a giant dragon snout. The
5:42 krenellations are stone dragons rather
5:45 than boring square stones. Basically,
5:47 there are lots of stone dragons that
5:49 Azor Ahai could conceivably bring to
5:51 life. All of which makes Dragonstone
5:53 seem like a good place to start your
5:55 search for Azor Ahai Reborn. Maybe
5:58 Melisandre even saw Dragonstone in her
6:00 flames. We don't know. And to be fair to
6:02 Melisandre, connecting Azor Ahai to
6:04 Dragonstone is not just something she
6:07 made up. Several other people have come
6:09 to the same conclusion. When Rhaegar
6:10 thought his son Aegon would be the
6:12 prince that was promised, it was partly
6:15 because he was born at Dragonstone.
6:17 Later, Maester Ammon thinks that it is
6:19 evidence that Daenerys is the prince
6:20 that was promised because she was born
6:23 there. And Banero, the high priest of
6:25 Ror in Volantis, thinks the same. At
6:27 which point we should probably clarify
6:29 that Melisandre thinking these clues
6:31 lead to Stannis happens before Dany and
6:34 Jon are on anyone's radar. Jon's
6:36 Targaryen ancestry is still clearly
6:38 hidden and Dany is still years from
6:40 hatching those dragon eggs. There are no
6:43 obvious candidates out there. Melisandre
6:45 seems to be the first or insert your
6:47 blood raven conspiracy theory here among
6:49 the first to be actively looking for
6:51 Azor Ahai reborn and expecting to find
6:54 them. So to return to where we were a
6:56 moment ago, Dragonstone being the place
6:59 of salt and smoke pointing to Azora High
7:01 reborn isn't some random thought by
7:02 Melisandre. It actually seems to have
7:04 been quite a mainstream view among the
7:06 prophecy pondering people of Westeros
7:09 and Essos. Going there seems to have
7:10 been a very reasonable starting point
7:13 for Melisandre. So she goes there and
7:16 Stannis isn't there. He's in King's
7:17 Landing most of the time at that point
7:19 as master of ships in his brother
7:21 Robert's small council. So she sets
7:22 herself to converting people to the
7:24 worship of Ror while she waits to see
7:27 her champion emerge. This is a huge
7:30 success with Stannis's wife Cis the most
7:32 high-profile new convert. And during
7:34 this time she no doubt looks in the
7:36 flames and sees something that convinces
7:38 her that the person she is seeking must
7:42 be Stannis. What? Well, going back to
7:44 what she said to Davos, we read this. I
7:47 have seen him leading the fight against
7:50 the dark. I have seen it in the flames.
7:53 Now, Melisandre is a complex character,
7:54 and we have to acknowledge that what she
7:57 says is not necessarily what she saw.
7:59 One of the big reveals in her POV
8:02 chapter is how set she is on seeming all
8:04 knowing and powerful all of the time.
8:06 This often plays out by her saying
8:09 things with certainty when she is, in
8:11 truth, not 100% certain. As an example,
8:13 we get this exchange with Jon about
8:16 another largely unrelated vision she had
8:17 in the flames.
8:20 I saw towers by the sea, she says,
8:22 submerged beneath a black and bloody
8:24 tide. That is where the heaviest blow
8:29 will fall. Eastwatch asks John. Was it?
8:31 Melisandre had seen East Watch by the
8:33 sea with King Stannis. That was where
8:35 his grace left Queen Ciss and their
8:36 daughter Shireen when he assembled his
8:38 knights for the march to Castle Black.
8:40 The towers in her fire had been
8:43 different, but that was off the way with
8:47 visions. Yes, East Watch, my lord. So,
8:50 there she is confidently asserting that
8:52 she saw something that she didn't
8:54 actually see. The towers she saw in her
8:57 flames were not Eastwatch, but she tells
9:00 Jon that they are. So, perhaps that
9:02 happened here. She tells Davos she saw
9:04 Stannis lead the fight against the dark,
9:07 but in reality, she wasn't so sure.
9:09 Maybe. But given her clear personal
9:11 buyin to this idea, I think there's
9:13 actually a good chance that this time
9:15 she did see Stannis lead the fight
9:18 against the dark as she says. However,
9:20 leading the fight against the dark is a
9:22 very vague description at the best of
9:24 times. But let's imagine that she saw
9:26 the most convincing version of that.
9:29 Stannis on the wall leading his men
9:30 fighting against the others, a flaming
9:33 sword in his hand. That's what she saw
9:35 and that's why she's convinced it's him.
9:37 as well as the salt and smoke thing, we
9:40 can understand why on that basis she
9:42 might be convinced. So, doesn't that
9:45 make him Azor Ahai? Well, no, not
9:48 necessarily. Simply put, that could
9:50 happen in the story and Stannis still
9:52 not be the main Azor Ahai figure in this
9:55 drama. Leaving aside for another video
9:56 the idea that there might be more than
9:59 one Azor Ahai reborn, Jon as Lord
10:01 Commander of the Night's Watch has given
10:04 Stannis the Night Fort. If he triumphs
10:06 at Winterfell, there is every reason to
10:08 believe Stannis will head up there next.
10:10 And if the others go there, as they
10:13 might, he will no doubt fight them. And
10:15 Melisandre may have seen that in her
10:18 flames. But Jon may also be fighting at
10:20 Castle Black, say, with Dragon Glass,
10:21 Valyrian Steel, and maybe even the Horn
10:24 of Winter. And Dany may also arrive on
10:26 Drogon. Stannis could be leading his own
10:28 men in the fight against the dark
10:30 without being the most important person
10:32 in that fight.
10:35 Melisandre believes that there was no
10:37 one, even in her order, who had her
10:39 skill at seeing the secrets half
10:41 revealed and half concealed within the
10:44 sacred flames. That may well be true.
10:46 Again, in her POV chapter, we can see
10:48 that she sees many, many different
10:50 things in the flames, flashing past her
10:53 at dizzying speed. Seeing visions, even
10:55 true visions in the flames, is not her
10:59 problem. interpreting what she sees is,
11:02 as Jon Snow says to her face. A gray
11:04 girl on a dying horse, daggers in the
11:06 dark, a promised prince born in smoke
11:09 and salt. It seems to me that you make
11:12 nothing but mistakes, my lady. Where is
11:13 Stannis? What of Rattleshirt and his
11:17 spear wives? Where is my sister?
11:19 John could probably wait for answers
11:20 about the gray girl on the dying horse
11:22 and daggers in the dark, but his point
11:25 is a fair one. Melisandre sees a lot of
11:28 true things, but interpretation to real
11:30 world advice and guidance is not her
11:33 strong point. So, where does all that
11:36 leave us? Having decided that Dragon
11:37 Stone was the place to look because of
11:39 the salt and smoke and stone dragons,
11:41 and that the timing, as the long summer
11:44 drew to a close, was right, Melisandre
11:46 will then perhaps have seen Stannis in
11:48 her flames, seemingly leading the fight
11:51 against the dark. Surely, he was who she
11:54 was seeking. Then he unexpectedly became
11:56 rightful king of the seven kingdoms from
11:58 some people's perspective anyway, which
12:01 seems pretty important. Then as the red
12:03 comet flew overhead, Stannis accepted,
12:05 or at least decided to go with her lead
12:08 that he was Azor Ahai reborn. Everything
12:11 seemed to add up. Then to add to all of
12:13 that, he alone of all the lords of
12:16 Westeros understood and answered the
12:18 Nights Watch's call to fight against the
12:20 others, leading an army up to the wall.
12:24 the only hero to do so. So yes, it makes
12:27 sense from her perspective. And once she
12:29 had decided that, she seems to have been
12:31 the kind of person to just bank that
12:33 idea and not challenge it and let
12:35 everything else she saw and experience
12:37 arrange itself around that
12:40 unchallengeable fact. Stannis was Azor
12:42 Ahai reborn. I'm sure psychologists
12:44 watching this will have a term for this
12:46 kind of certainty. Everything else had
12:49 to be interpreted in that light. There's
12:50 certainly some confirmation bias going
12:53 on at the very least. In practice, she
12:56 then decided that as Stannis was Azor
12:58 Ahai Reborn, others needed to believe
13:00 it, too, which led to her forcing the
13:02 Lightbringer issue, giving him a flaming
13:04 sword she probably knew wasn't
13:05 Lightbringer to make it look more like
13:07 he was the thing she thought he was.
13:10 Azor Ahai must have Lightbrer, so she
13:12 would provide it. The same goes for the
13:15 turning stone dragons to life idea that
13:16 she tried to force as well with the
13:19 blood of Edric Storm. From our vantage
13:21 point across the entire story, seeing
13:23 how Dany seems to have fulfilled
13:25 prophecy, including turning stone dragon
13:27 eggs into real dragons, and Jon probably
13:30 will too soon, it seems rather obvious
13:32 that there are better candidates. And
13:34 indeed, it seems like we shouldn't trust
13:36 prophecy completely either. But from
13:38 Melisandre's perspective, all the clues
13:41 do indeed lead to Stannis. It will take
13:43 something spectacular to make her change
13:45 her mind.
13:47 If you'd like to see more A Song of Ice
13:48 and Fire videos like this, there's a
13:50 link to my playlist on the left of your
13:52 screen now. Or to support this channel,
13:54 thank you. There's a link to my Patreon
13:56 page on the right of your screen. Thanks
13:58 for watching. That's all for this time.
