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Does History Progress?

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Summary

Core Theme

History is a complex interplay of progress and catastrophe, driven by the human capacity for reason and the pursuit of liberty, which, though often accidental and fraught with peril, offers a path towards a better future.

Mind Map

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คลิกเพื่อสำรวจ Mind Map แบบอินเตอร์แอคทีฟฉบับเต็ม

in December of 1940 a 43-year-old

policeman in London scratched his face

on a rose bush the small wound quickly

turned septic his face ballooned with

abscesses and purse one eye became

infected and had to be removed and the

infection spread to his arm and lungs he

was in a huge amount of pain an

escalation like this seems like extreme

bad luck to us today but before

antibiotics lifethreatening infection

was so common that life expectancy was

just 47 years

old the policeman's doctor decided to

try a brand new drug penicillin he was

the first person in the world to receive

it around 10 years earlier Alexander

Fleming had returned to his lab from

holiday and found that one of his Petri

dishes was contaminated with mold he

noticed though that the mold had

inhibited the growth of the bacteria in

the dish so we took the mold and added

it to other dishes finding the

same after 4 days of treatment the

policeman was making what his doctor

described as a striking recovery

temperature returned to normal and he

was eating well on the fifth day though

the supply ran out and a month later he died

died

di it's been estimated that since

penicillin has saved the lives of maybe

200 million people and saved countless

others from excruciating pain it's

probably the most important life-saving

Discovery in human history but it also

points to a paradox in thinking about

progress in history Not only was it

discovered by accident the mold had

floated up through a window accidentally

left open onto a petri dish left

accidentally out on a bench rather than

in an incubator while the exceptionally

cool weather for that time of year had

encouraged its

growth if the discovery of such a

life-saving drug is the result of chance

how can we think about progress at all

what drives it is it guaranteed or is it a

myth of course it wasn't just chance

Fleming was a practice iing scientist

embedded in a context of Institutions

aims methods in a particular culture and

so on and compare this story to what was

going on at precisely the same time only

a few hundred miles away in Germany and

Poland Millions were being

systematically murdered while the

Innovations of Science and Technology

were being put to good use by European

slaughtering each other on

battlefields how do we make sense of

this paradox that the most important

innovation in history and other medical

and scientific advances were happening

at the same time as the most devastating

catastrophe in [Music]

history the historian will gerant wrote

that Civilization is a stream with banks

the stream is sometimes filled with

blood from people killing stealing in

shouting and doing the things that

historians usually record while on the

banks unnoticed people build homes make

love raise children sing songs write

poetry and even Whittle statues the

story of civilization is the story of

what happened on the banks historians

are pessimists because they ignore the

banks for the

river is Durant right do we all ignore

the good in history are we all

pessimists how do we even begin to

understand the good in History how it

unfolds what drives it what could

promote it what we could learn from it

there are countless difficulties here

the first is what does good even mean

what's the measure what's the

criteria some say health others

happiness others wealth stability

Community equality a postmodern critic

that it's impossible to rank these

values to compare and classify or to

place any hope in a grand narrative

what's a long life if it's lived under

tyranny what's a wealthy life if those

around you live in

poverty however if we were to begin with

a loose matter Criterion that I think

most would agree on while nevertheless

disagreeing on precisely what it means

we'd land on something like Liberty

Liberty broadly speaking is the freedom

to think to speak to do to act to be

oneself to go where one chooses to

strive in the way one wants to strive to

have as many as the primary Goods of

life as possible in order to do so food

shelter transport even things like good

relationships friendships opportunities

and so on most I think would agree that

generally more of these things is better than

than

less broad Liberty in this sense is

neutral between competing ideological

beliefs or political systems it begins

from a simple premise that more

possibility is better than less the

society that has better access to

penicillin is better than the one where

you're more likely to be sent to a gas

chamber the historical question then is

to understand which historical

conditions institutional political

cultural philosophical lead to an

increase in Liberty and which diminish

it which ideas about Liberty seem to

work where did they come from who built

on them improved them what diminished or

restricted them the historical question

is to search for the causes of Liberty

so that they can be identified and built upon

upon today

today [Music]

[Music]

Hegel argued that history was the

unfolding of Reason Through Time Martin

Luther King who read Hegel argued that

the moral Arc of History bends towards

Justice Marx building on Hegel that

economic contradictions resolve through

history leading to a more equal society

and more recently once again drawing on

Hegel some have claimed that liberal

capitalism is the end of

History all of these claims are in some

sense hegelian and the philosopher Terry

Pinkard has recently argued in a work on

Hegel that the end at work in history is

the securing of justice as

freedom freedom is the relationship

between desire reasoning acting on your

desires and recognition and Authority in

other words our desires don't exist in a

vacuum we're in constant negotiation

with others and their desires with

figures and systems of authority that

act upon and direct our own desires and

so on freedom is inter subjective social

Consciousness culture and institutions

arise out of the interplay of all our desires

desires

socially with this in mind Pinker asks

does history make sense is there logic

in the way the interplay of desires

plays out is history comprehensible or

is it contingent subject to chance random

random

messy but the totality of that interplay

is meant to be directed towards

increasing Freedom Hegel was a figure of

the Enlightenment like K before him he

believed in a scientific approach to the

world and that included history he

argued that science was bringing the

phenomena of the world around us in

nature in humans in everything under

what he called the

concept what he meant by this was that

we have ideas of things we have ideas of

ourselves our desires of others of

History we categorize things we look at

the qualities of things the causes of

things the historian looks at the causes

of World War II for example and builds

up an idea of World War II importantly

it's this ability to go about the messy

work of building up ideas that makes us

human and provides the possibility of

place a mouse has a past but it has no

real history we have ideas of how we

acted why we acted what we've changed

since for example a mouse might have a

drive to eat which it acts on but a

human has a concept of eating under

which reasons for eating what to eat

when to eat what's healthy how to farm

where to shop are categorized under the

idea or concept of

eating what hago is trying to show is

how we make sense of the world that from

our ideas and Concepts we make judgments

about how to act once we understand this

we can understand that the idea of salad

say is a historical one we've brought

more understanding under the concept of

salad how it looks its chemical

composition its effects best ways to

distribute it and eat it so it's most

flavorsome and so

on humans develop conceptions over time

at times ideas Fall Apart and are

discarded and at other times they

develop and are adopted the biblical

idea that the sun went around the earth

fell apart as it was observed that the

opposite was true so the idea that the

Bible was the guide to wisdom was slowly

superseded by an emphasis on observation and

and

empiricism Pinker writes that the

components of the idea arise in history

but as humans reflect on those Concepts

put them to use and modify them in the

course of their Collective lives they

refashion them into overall schemes of

intelligibility Hegel was expanding on

Spinoza's point that modern scientific

and rational inquiry expands outwards

towards what he called the perspective

of infinity by looking at the causes and

the qualities of the things that help us

expand upon our desires and

interests Pinker writes that Hegel

concludes that freedom is the capacity

to make what truly matters effective in

one's life and in modern times that more

or less comes down to acting on our

reasons rather than on vague feelings or

guidance from nature the gods or those

who claim to rule Us by natural

right but again this is obviously not

just an individual process our own ideas

and desires come into conflict with

others there are agreements and

disagreements that play out in culture

in institutions in norms and practices

in political decisions Etc but the point

is that over time we tend to try and

work up ideas of things that work and

ideas of things that don't Pinker writes

that history is an arena in which people

seek and have sought reconciliation that

is a kind of justification for their

lives when it comes to the meta

Criterion of Liberty denouncing fascism

is thought of as the same as trying to

eat more salad an individual directed by

education cultural context social

information makes a judgment that the

former had the effect of reducing

Liberty in the past and the latter has

the effect of increasing energy and

lifespan Hegel says that we emerge from

a realm of Shadows and move towards the

reasons if this is true then we should

be able to establish some points of

historical progress Which shapes of

Consciousness to use hegel's term which

ideas practices instit utions in history

have promoted

Liberty for Hagel the process developed

as history unfolded from one being free

a king or an emperor free to make their

own decisions about Society while the

others had to follow to many being free

I.E an aristocracy to all in principle

at least being free Hegel argued that

preek societies were paternalistic and

authoritarian that they were rule

followers and that they didn't

interrogate the reasons for following or

abandoning certain rules and that the

Persians Egyptians Indians and Chinese

civilizations that preceded the Greeks

didn't approach the world and people as

ideas to be studied but instead were

absorbed in the world around them they

didn't have any reflective critical

distance without these mechanisms for

self-criticism there can be no movement in

history it's important to note his

interpretation of ancient history has

been criticized a lot since but for our

purposes the important point is less

where it started but the idea of a

reflective distance on the world being

important the questioning of why some

ideas or rules are adopted and why

others are discarded the Greeks he

thinks were

self-conscious they had a particularly

acute idea of the self and asked

questions about

it it's under these conditions that the

question can be more forcefully asked

who are the people what does freedom

mean who rules and so on

Pinkard writes the Greek Miracle as it

were was its creation of the poce a new

form of social and political

organization in history in which the

ability to defend the community United

with an ancient conception of Justice

into a new kind of unity that broke with

the past and thereby combined the

advantages of the emotional closeness

and solidarity of traditional tribal

life with the reflective and economic

advantages of an urban life that these

circumstances were crucial for the

developing of an idea of

freedom for the Greeks what made someone

free was self-sufficiency that they

weren't under the sway of others that

they had the means to make decisions and

live by their own means own desires that

in Aristotle's phrase a person was a law unto

unto

himself Aristotle continued that it's

the mark of a free man not to live at

another's Beck and cool Freedom meant

not being compelled it meant being

self-directing and crucially it meant

not being a

slave but of course women and slaves

were excluded the community had ultimate

authority over the individual and the

Greek poce and its face-to-face direct

democracy struggled to grow as Benjamin

constant wrote the problems of the

ancient idea of Liberty if this is what

the Ancients called Liberty they

admitted as compatible with this

Collective Freedom the complete

subjection of the individual to the

authority of the

community in some ways Rome expanded on

the Greek idea of Liberty and managed to

grow by granting citizenship to many of

the areas it conquered but eventually of

course ruling was left to the

aristocracy the Senate and the

emperor but Pinkard writes that once the

Greeks had put freedom on the map as a

way of thinking about Justice there was

a push towards justice as equality and

as the mutual recognition of the freedom

of all an actualization of the idea of

person if we acknowledge that poit iCal

Liberty the right to contribute to and

to be part of the political process to

have rights is an important part of

Liberty then it must be true to say that

the so-called Dark Ages between the

collapse of the Roman Empire in the

fifth century to the Renaissance in the

15th are a regression broadly speaking

historians no longer use the term the

Dark Ages using the Middle Ages instead

with many pointing to achievements in

architecture and Agriculture and Mining

and much more nevertheless monarchism

absolutism even the Catholicism of the

period don't fit well under our broad

means in forms of organization like

monarchy or the medieval Church the

right to act move and worship freely to

contribute towards the decisions that

affect your life are quite clearly

restricted in important ways social

positions are carefully orchestrated

from above different rights powers and

privileges are distributed depending on

one's standing and social position from

above economic activity religious

freedom education and so on is or at

least can always in principle be

above we should look briefly then at

four interrelated moments the

Renaissance the Reformation the

Scientific Revolution and the

enlightenment when Constantinople was

taken by the Ottoman Empire in

1453 an influx of migrants into Europe

fleeing led to the discovery of many

ancient Greek and Roman texts on

everything from music and art to

politics and philosophy the resulting Renaissance

Renaissance

impossible without the printing press

invented in

1463 led to a flourishing of commentary

on Old ideas and new ideas being

produced across the

continent it was essentially an

explosion of ideas the discovery of

America by Europeans in 1492 also

revolutionized attitudes of many across

the continent it showed that the world

was much bigger than previously assumed

that there were more peoples more ideas

and possibilities than had long been

assumed it also proved the usefulness of

Technology the compass and ship building in

particular the Reformation would not

have been the same without the

Renaissance the German priest Martin

Luther's rejection of the Pope's supreme

authority set off the Reformation across

Europe in

1517 encouraging Christians to read the

Bible themselves elves despite the

church forbidding it no single person or

group should have a monopoly on

interpreting God's will the new

Protestants argued protestantism was

important because it began to

democratize the interpretation of morals

and ethics and spirituality similarly

the Treaty of West failure signed after

the fighting between Catholics and

Protestants during the 30 Years War

contained the seeds of the modern idea

of the sovereignty of Nations that each

nation has the right to determine its

own laws its own course of action that

each to go back to Aristotle's phrase

was a law unto

himself the Scientific Revolution was

happening at around the same time and by

1700 the world looked very very

different to how it did in

1400 kernus is Discovery that the Earth

revolved around the Sun rather than the

other way round expanded the universe in

people's minds in the same way that the

discovery of America expanded the Earth

in European mind kernus made the Earth

just another Celestial body and this

naturally refuted biblical texts and

legitimized the further study of the

physical universe and the laws of motion

and matter Galileo and Newton

revolutionized and formalized the laws

of motion and physics and many began

proving that these principles could be

applied to Innovation through projects

like Canal building and better

architecture and Road Improvement and

navigational instruments Francis Bacon

argued that an inductive method should

be used in science the careful

observation of the

world all of this led to an interest in

and the Improvement of instruments like

the barometer the telescope the

microscope the compass cartography

medical instruments the steam engine

electricity and modern engineering and

science more broadly leading to

today Paul Hazard says that the focus on

reason was Central although many would

dispute this and he writes that the

enlightenment's essence was to examine

and its first charge was to take on the

mysterious The Unexplained the Obscure

in order to project its light out into

the world the world was full of Errors

created by the deceitful powers of the

Soul V saved by authorities beyond

control spread by preference for

credulity and laziness accumulated and

strengthened through the force of

time the point is that the enlightenment

aimed to uncover to shine a light on to

broaden out our understanding of

ourselves and the universe although as

we saw in the last video it had a dark

side too but pink card says that the

major turning point in world history has

to do with the advantages gained by

modern Europeans who have come to

comprehend the Eternal justice of their

world as consisting in a kind of

all the enlightenment according to many

may have been contradictory inadequate

misguided the idea of equal freedom for

all conveniently not being applied to

colonies slaves women the proletariat

but the question is despite it taking a

painfully slow amount of time was it the

nent animating principles of freedom

justice equality Etc that slowly

unfolded complexified became more

forceful more convincing more nuanced

from the ancient Greeks through to

Christianity and the reformation and the

Scientific Revolution the Enlightenment

and onto things like Marxism manism

decolonization human rights and debates

about freedom and Justice today is there

a through Line Is It ideas that matter

is it economics is it Innovation or is

[Music]

else I think it's worth pausing here to

reflect on a problem though this is a

common eurocentric story and as we

discussed in the dark side of History

the expansion of Liberties for some has

led often to the domination and the

reduction of Liberties for

others I'm not suggesting a simple

triumphalist narrative and there is much

to include that traditionally isn't the

Islamic Golden Age the prosperity of the

mugal Empire before the East India

Company moved in science leading to

pollution as much as new tools just to

furthermore it's much easier to measure

something as distinct as death or

violence than it is to measure Liberty

what someone sees as Liberty varies so

much across the world as we move into

the modern era everywhere the different

methods Technologies political Solutions

languages we have developed for choosing

freely to do things has expanded

exponentially so let's return to our

initial question question briefly what is

Liberty the philosopher Thomas Hobs

described some places as having more or

less Liberty Frederick Hayek said that

the poor in a competitive Society are

much more free than a person commanding

much greater material comfort in a

different type of society John

Somerville said that during the Cold War

in a communist World there was much more

freedom from the power of private money

and periodic

unemployment a brief look at the history

of the concept shows the difficulty in

even agreeing what Liberty means whether

it can be measured like height or weight

say in his book a measure of Freedom

philosopher Ian Carter writes that

freedom is the absence of preventing

conditions on agents possible actions

those preventing conditions can be many

we might be physically prevented coerced

or threatened unable because of a lack

of Education or resources or being born

in the wrong place but a broad point for

me is that a measure of freedom is the

availability of choice you might not be

free to climb a mountain if you are

incapable but a better Society I'd argue

is the one that if that is your choice

out of many many choices you'll have

easier access to the resources and

education and time and energy to do so

the same measure can be applied to jobs

health Innovation cooking art religion

travel politics a good measure of

freedom is one that should be applicable

to anything a society then that has

broad access to scientific research is

an improvement on one that doesn't one

that has the widest availability of food

ingredients is an improvement on the one

that doesn't the easiest access to

healthcare we could go [Music]

on moving into the 19th century the new

scientific Enlightenment liberal

rights-based order was becoming dominant

throughout Europe but especially towards

the end of the century contradictions

began to appear was it really capitalism

as a system that was responsible for

progress of any kind could capitalism be

made ethical could rational State

organization better direct the

Innovations of Science and Industry

could Empires be [Music]

[Music]

overthrown the problem then and now is

the difficulty in agreeing on the causes

of Liberty if we say science or at least

some of it medicine tools architecture

has been fundamental in improving the

lives of the most people people then the

focus should be to discover protect and

emphasize the conditions that lead to

the rise and proliferation of science to

oversimplify but it's not too much of an

oversimplification you can look to

history to see the causes of the

Scientific Revolution the causes of

medical revolutions to which countries

have the best healthc care outcomes

historians of the Scientific Revolution

for example emphasize the activity of

ofies outside of mainstream universities

on collaboration on the emphasis on

empiricism on the scientific method on

developing new ways of reporting

experiments so that a reader far away

could witness the experiment the start

of peer review the printing press the

cross dissemination of information I'm

using a broad example but making a

historical point we use history we know

these things work in the past and we

further them into the future in through

public discourse in the classroom in the

lab another example of this problem

comes from the study of the decline of

violence it's mostly agreed now that

there was a decline in homicide and

violent crime from the end of the Middle

Ages through roughly speaking to today

with quite a few blips in between some

like like historian Peter speenberg

argued that the cause was the

monopolization of state power as

monarchs across Europe became more

secure and Consolidated their Authority

the Royal Court became a politer and

more civilized place as Lord sat to

Josel for favor and the Monarch was able

to capitalize on their power by being

more intolerant of volatility others

have pointed to the rise of Commerce and

the need for more civil interaction

between people to make one's way in

life but on the other hand the historian

Mark MAA has argued that this state

monopolization of power led to the death

toll of the two world wars in the

Holocaust and the nuclear bombs in the

20th century contradicting this story of civil

civil

progress The Point again is that the

causes of any type of progress are

always difficult to identify just

because a monarch imposed order where

Elite violence would have previously

gone unpunished say that doesn't

necessarily mean the premise absolute

monarchy causes less violence is

universally true like a physical

statement or a mathematic formula and so

we should support absolute monarchy

Forever This is a laughable error in

attribution Steven Pinker who relies

heavily on these sorts of arguments in

his better angels of our nature why

violence has declined falls into this

trap historian Gregory hon notes that

while Pinker is correct to quote

underline the vertiginous drop in

violence since the end of the Middle

Ages he's also prone to Wild

exaggeration hyperbole junk statistics

and reference to fiction as if it were

fact and that he has exaggerated of

often outrageously the contrast between

then and now and take a look at this

particularly damning critique in the

introduction to a special issue of

history and Theory looking at pinker's

work the overall verdict is that

pinker's thesis for all the stimulus it

may have given to discussions around

violence is seriously if not fatally

flawed the problems that come up time

and time again are the failure to

genuinely engage with his hisorical

methodologies the unquestioning use of

jubia sources the tendency to exaggerate

the violence of the past in order to

contrast it with the supposed

peacefulness of the modern era the

creation of a number of Straw Men which

Pinker then goes on to debunk and its

extraordinarily Western Centric not to

say wigg is view of the

world and so they point to a broader

problem any attempt to make sense of

History requires understanding multiple

disciplines has unavoidable ideological

biases simplifies things out to the

extreme and quickly gets very very

complicated you just have so many

variables in

play but doesn't mean we should just

give up to discern a drop in violence

and to roughly Identify some causes to

know what encourages scientific

discoveries to discern the conditions

that have led to increases in democracy

y to know what protects against

totalitarianism to be able to understand

however imperfectly many other questions

like these is pretty good progress

enough but history is obviously not a

story of easy to understand simple

progress we try things get things wrong

give power to the wrong people go down

wrong turnings we're prone to accidents

and the misuse of ideas we forget or

lose things new problems develop

freedoms for some lead to catastrophes

for others or for ourselves in the

future this is why Hegel said that the

owl of manura flies at dusk only in

retrospect as we try and make some sense

in 1854 The Physician Jon Snow mapped

the houses hit by a Cera outbreak in

London he discovered that the cas is

centered around one water pump Snow's

Discovery was a huge breakthrough in the

prevention of communicable diseases

proving that chera was not Airborne as

people thought but was caught from

contaminated water it led to an

unprecedented moved towards a focus on

sanitation sewage Works clean water and

toilets and in doing so saved countless

lives snow was looking at the causes of

something in the past to make

conclusions about how to prevent it in

the future it was this tradition that

Alexander Fleming was working into and

one that led to a vast range of advances in

health history is in some ways a

scientific discipline it's different to

say physics but it's still the study of

objects Diaries letters newspapers memos

images and so on to try and create an

accurate picture of the past it can then

be close to object if and it can still

be an attempt to try and find

generalizable patterns from a set of

observations it's much more open open of

course to interpretation than many other

disciplines to find the causes of

poverty the causes of affluence the

causes of Happiness there's a lot of subjective

subjective

interpretation and it's much more

difficult to apply because we're not

germs or rocks we respond as humans but

historians have avoided making strong

claims about the use of history for

things like policy for politics for

thinking about the future and I think

that's a mistake we should still use

history to try and understand the likely

outcomes of scenarios and conditions and

to be able to try and predict what works

and what doesn't by looking at the past

and applying it to the present with a

mind to the

Future in the aftermath of the Holocaust

many argued it was grotesque to talk

about progress about hago about the

cunning of reason the horrors weren't to

be made sense of the unpredictable evil

of it disproved any inevitable progress

it disproved an intered benevolent God

disproved the natural goodness of

mankind disproved a lot of things it

left a hole in our human

nature but if hego was in in any way

right about what progress means the idea

of the cunning of reason is not that the

Holocaust was some cunning way of

enticing and making progress but a

horrific veering off from reason that

demands instead a reasonable response

how might we avoid something like it happening

happening

again and since then there's been a lot

of good research on why genocides happen

I've explored some of it in this video

and it's research that helps us to see

the causes of genocide so that we can

try to institutionalize and protect or

culturalized or educate so that we can

avoid in the future to try and create

inoculations against genocide in the

same way we avoid chera

say as our ability to influence the

world around us as a species grows as we

become more advanced as we grow our body

of knowledge the trip wires that we lay

become all the more threatening the

stakes are higher as we become more

powerful we become more dangerous to one

another with AI the anthropos nuclear

weapons the large levers of state power

of big Capital we live in a crucial

moment and we must find ways to protect

against our worst impulses and

incentivize our best or we could quite

easily trip up and wipe ourselves out I

think the threats facing us are not

hyperbole if you look at history they're very

very

real but if we look to how people in the

past have capitalized on the possibility

for Liberty we have to I think be

cautiously but actively optimistic and I

think when we look at the dark side and

the pro press in history the word that

comes to mind is bitter [Music]

[Music]

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UF8uR6Z6KLc

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https://youtubetotext.net/watch?v=UF8uR6Z6KLc

คำบรรยาย YouTubeกำลังเตรียมผลลัพธ์ให้คุณ…

คำบรรยาย YouTube:Does History Progress?

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คำบรรยาย YouTube:
Does History Progress?