0:01 Hey guys, welcome to a new video and
0:03 also happy new year. So in this video
0:04 I'm going to be explaining how you can
0:06 use geopolitical tensions in your
0:07 trading, right? More specifically, I'm
0:08 going to break down what's actually
0:10 going on in Venezuela at the moment and
0:11 how you can use this information to
0:13 trade. Right? If you know how to do
0:14 this, you know how to interpret this
0:16 information. It can be extremely
0:17 extremely profitable. This is the trade
0:19 right here. Obviously, it's on gold XUSD
0:21 and let's get into it. Okay, so first we
0:23 got to start with geopolitical tensions,
0:24 right? What is this? What does it even
0:26 mean? So we can think of it as conflicts
0:27 between countries and regions that come
0:29 from geographical, economic and/or
0:31 political interests. Okay. So in the
0:33 situation at the moment with Venezuela,
0:35 I'm sure you've seen it online. Um it's
0:37 a big deal, right? So basically in
0:38 Karakas, which is the capital of
0:41 Venezuela, um the US has captured
0:42 Nicholas Maduro, the president, right?
0:44 And this is like I've just said a very
0:46 very serious event and it's going to
0:48 cause a rise in geopolitical tensions.
0:49 Right? This is going to, you know,
0:50 further destabilize the reason the
0:52 region. Um I don't want to get too much
0:53 into it but you know there's a lot of
0:55 oil there a lot of money a lot of a lot
0:56 of serious things that can happen now
0:58 because of this um it's going to create
1:00 a lot of uncertainty and when we have
1:02 uncertainty in the markets it's going to
1:04 push a lot of money into hard assets
1:06 right now one of those hard assets being
1:08 gold right the trend for banks um
1:11 recently uh not actually quite a while
1:13 now um has been for banks to buy gold
1:15 right before they were just trading a
1:16 lot uh a lot of gold but now they're
1:18 actually buying a lot of gold right
1:20 because the world is trying to almost
1:22 you call DD dollarized, right? They're
1:25 trying to um reduce their dependence on
1:27 using the US dollar because it's uh seen
1:29 as not as secure anymore, right? Gold is
1:31 seen as as much more secure at the
1:32 moment than the dollar, right? The gold
1:35 is also um overtaken the dollar as a
1:36 leading reserve asset for central banks,
1:38 right? This is also very very big deal,
1:40 right? Again, you know, hard assets such
1:42 as silver. I'm actually in a trade um as
1:45 silver as well. Um actually open right
1:46 now, but obviously this trade is on
1:48 gold, so I'm just going to explain uh
1:50 the gold trade. Okay, so basically this
1:52 is what's happening in Venezuela. Very,
1:53 very big deal. Now, what does this mean
1:55 for us traders? Okay, so this is going
1:57 to cause a rise in geopolitical
1:58 tensions, right? Like I've just
2:00 mentioned here and basically when we see
2:01 a rise in geopolitical tensions, we're
2:03 typically going to see safe haven assets
2:05 rise. Okay, so for example, some of the
2:07 safe haven currencies, we have the US
2:08 dollar, we have the Swiss Frank, the
2:10 Japanese yen, and then for example, a
2:12 metal, which in this case what what I
2:14 traded was was gold, right? But again,
2:15 we have, you know, silver and many many
2:17 other things, but I just haven't listed
2:19 them here, right? So now the reason for
2:20 this obviously is because investors want
2:22 to hold their money in safer places,
2:23 right? Very very stranded, very very
2:26 kind of straightforward. Okay. Now with
2:28 gold um I'm expecting gold strength
2:31 based off this. Right? Now you have to
2:32 also I'm going I put note here cuz I
2:33 want to break something down really
2:35 quickly which is some people get caught
2:38 out on is gold is obviously um XAU
2:41 USD. Right? So we have the gold portion
2:43 here. Then we have the US dollar portion
2:45 here. Now in this situation I have
2:47 obviously see typically see safe haven
2:49 assets rise. I have the dollar and I
2:51 also have gold. So basically what I'm
2:53 saying here is is I want to see is I'm
2:55 potentially going to see gold rise and
2:58 the dollar rise. Now if these both rise
3:00 the chart is not going to move at all.
3:01 Right? Because they're both rising. You
3:02 can think of it almost like they cancel
3:04 each other out. Now, in this situation,
3:06 the reason why I wanted to see gold, I'm
3:09 expecting gold strength was because down
3:10 here, what I'm talking about is, you
3:11 know, the trend is people are trying to
3:14 deolize is that I'm expecting more
3:17 strength in um in gold as opposed to the
3:18 dollar, right? I'm still expecting
3:20 strength in both, but I'm expecting more
3:23 strength in in gold to actually get this
3:24 movement up, right? So, if they're both
3:25 the exact same, we're basically just
3:26 going to have some really really
3:28 sideways price action. Not going to see
3:30 much movement, right? But if the gold is
3:32 getting a lot a lot stronger than the US
3:33 dollar is, we are going to see obviously
3:35 gold gain strength. Right? So you have
3:37 to be careful in some situations where
3:39 obviously we do have kind of safe haven
3:41 safe havens rise like an event that
3:43 causes safe havens to rise. Um you may
3:45 not actually see gold rise, right?
3:47 Because the dollar is rising alongside
3:49 it, right? But in this situation because
3:50 of what I'm explaining down here with
3:52 gold's overtaking the dollar, I'm really
3:54 expecting gold to have more strength
3:56 than the dollar, right? Obviously
3:58 causing gold to to gain strength, right?
3:59 So, hope that makes sense. Again, if you
4:00 have any questions, just drop them in
4:02 the comments. Right? So, that's
4:03 basically what I'm expecting, right? I'm
4:05 expecting gold to gain strength. And
4:06 now, before I'm actually entering any
4:08 trades, I need to I need my technicals
4:10 to line up, right? Technical analysis
4:12 super super important for me. I want to
4:13 see a clear break of structure and I
4:15 want to see the currency reacting as
4:17 I've expected. Okay? So, in this
4:18 situation, I'm going to jump on the
4:19 charts in just a second, but like I
4:21 said, I want to see a breakup structure,
4:22 whether we have a structure point,
4:24 breakup structure right here. I want to
4:26 buy and then also want to see currency
4:27 moving in the way that I'm expecting.
4:29 Right? For example, if if I just jump
4:30 onto the charts and gold is suddenly
4:32 moving down, then I'm not going to enter
4:33 the trade, right? Because that's not
4:34 what I'm expecting, right? I like to
4:36 think of it as the technicals tell me
4:37 when and then the fundamentals tell me
4:40 why. Okay, so let's get into let's get
4:41 into the charts so I can show you
4:43 exactly what I'm doing and yeah, let's
4:44 get into it. Okay, so first things first
4:46 with um with my technicals, I'm just
4:48 going to mark off my clear zones. I've
4:49 done this in previous videos. Again,
4:51 very straightforward. I want to find off
4:52 zones that are most likely going to get
4:54 respected. Okay. Now, in terms of the
4:56 actual situation with Venezuela, that
4:59 happened over the weekend, right? So, um
5:00 obviously that's why we have this gap
5:01 here. When the market opened, we
5:03 obviously gapped up quite a bit. Okay.
5:05 So, over the weekend, uh when this when
5:06 this obviously happened, I'm researching
5:08 as much as I can and I'm looking into
5:10 it, which I explained previously, right?
5:12 I I broke it down. I'm expecting gold
5:14 strength. So, when the market opens, I
5:16 want to see gold strength, right? We can
5:17 see that when we do get this open, we do
5:19 get this immediate strength, but I
5:21 didn't enter right off here. Okay?
5:22 because again this kind of comes from
5:24 experience doing it again and again. Um
5:26 sometimes when we have an event like
5:28 this we can see a quick spike up and
5:30 then a really really big retracement.
5:32 Okay. So this uh kind of immediate
5:34 strength straight away wasn't enough for
5:36 me to enter. I wanted to see a kind of a
5:38 break of structure to confirm that this
5:39 is the direction that we actually want
5:42 to go into. Okay. So again we push up. I
5:44 didn't enter here. We get a small little
5:45 pullback. Um and then again we push
5:47 straight up. Break this structure point
5:49 right here. And that is enough for me to
5:50 enter the trade. Right. We've had our
5:53 initial jump. We've retraced and we're
5:54 continuing to move in the direction.
5:56 We're breaking structure in the
5:58 direction that I want to see. That's
5:59 enough for me to enter. Right. I place
6:01 my stop loss below this uh candle right
6:04 here, this wick, and um basically just
6:06 let it ride. Right? This is not a super
6:10 super um uh technical trade, right?
6:11 These are this was very very much uh
6:14 based off fundamental reasons. When you
6:16 understand how to use this information,
6:17 you can, you know, catch trades like
6:18 this. This was kind of very very
6:20 straightforward trade for me and these
6:22 trades can be yeah super super
6:24 profitable. Um so yeah basically entered
6:26 here stop loss below and I'm obviously
6:28 targeting these highs up here. I have so
6:30 this actually red line I should mention
6:31 here. I think I forgot to mention my
6:33 last video. This red line mentions my
6:34 trading stop loss. So I don't like to
6:36 keep my stop loss um just all the way at
6:38 the bottom. If I'm in a certain amount
6:39 of profit and if I can see structure,
6:40 you can see the structure point right
6:42 here. There's no reason for this for me
6:44 to you know let this trade run all the
6:45 way back and hit my stop loss. Right?
6:46 I'm in a certain amount of profit. I
6:48 want to secure a certain amount. Okay.
6:50 Now, this green line does represent uh
6:52 my take profit. In this situation, I
6:54 have taken out uh have taken partial.
6:56 So, I've taken out a decent chunk of my
6:58 profits, but I am actually continually
7:00 holding this as you can see. Um and I
7:01 want to see if we can hit all the way up
7:03 here. So, this is kind of how important
7:05 it is and how kind of profitable it can
7:07 be to understand what's actually
7:08 happening in the markets, what's
7:10 actually happening in the world. And you
7:11 know, this year there's going to be
7:12 there's going to be so much happening.
7:14 Um, so if you know how to read this
7:16 information, how to understand this
7:18 information, you are going to be um,
7:19 yeah, very very profitable, making a lot
7:21 of money if you know how to do this,
7:22 right? So yeah, I hope this was uh
7:24 helpful. I hope you found this uh,
7:25 informative. I hope this was, yeah,
