คำบรรยาย YouTube:
Calculate Intrinsic Value of a Stock like Warren Buffet - Example 2023

ไม่ต้องนั่งดูวิดีโอทั้งหมด — รับคำบรรยายฉบับเต็ม ค้นหาคีย์เวิร์ด และคัดลอกด้วยคลิกเดียว

แชร์:

AutoDub

เข้าใจวิดีโอ YouTube ภาษาต่างประเทศ

พากย์ YouTube เป็นภาษาไทยแบบอิมเมอร์ซีฟ

ทลายกำแพงภาษา เปิดรับเนื้อหาคุณภาพจากทั่วโลก

ใช้ฟรี

คำบรรยายวิดีโอ

สรุปวิดีโอ

Summary

Core Theme

This content explains how to calculate a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, similar to the method employed by Warren Buffett, to identify undervalued investment opportunities, especially in a recessionary market.

Mind Map

คลิกเพื่อขยาย

คลิกเพื่อสำรวจ Mind Map แบบอินเตอร์แอคทีฟฉบับเต็ม

The markets have been

falling from its highs

from December 2021,

and we are looking at

a recessionary environment

where there are so many good companies

at extremely cheap prices.

Today we are going to discuss

how to find the fair value of the stock

in the same way that Warren Buffett does.

Well, intrinsic

value is what is the number

that if you

are all knowing about the future

and could predict all the cash

that a business would give you between

now and Judgment Day

discounted at the proper discount rate,

that number is what

the intrinsic value of a business it.

So what Warren Buffett does

is he uses a discounted cash flow model.

So what I'm going to do

is start with an example.

So this is a simple Excel

spreadsheet template that I have created.

Don't be worried about the numbers

as of now.

I'll explain to it

in very simple English

so you guys can understand

it as easy as possible.

You can download this template

from the description box

so you guys can play around with it

and put in any numbers,

put in any stock data

and get the intrinsic value calculator.

Okay.

So let's start

with these For discount rate

growth rate,

we're going to ignore all these things.

As of now,

just we're just going to do the ticker,

which is basically Apple.

We're going to focus on

Apple stock as of now,

the share price

and the outstanding shares

can be gotten from any data feed.

I'll use QuickFS and also gurufocus.

There's also Google Finance and Yahoo!

Finance and many other information.

So if you can go to Gurufocus

and go to ownership,

you will get the number

of shares outstanding,

which is what I have plugged in here.

And obviously the share price is what?

And so you can go into the cash

flow statement.

You've seen the cash flow

from operations.

So if I can go to the quick FS,

then go to cash flow statement, so

QuickFS is free

so you can get all these data for free.

So I'm taking the past five years

data of cash from

operations that's right here

and paste data here.

And then is CapEx,

which is short form

for capital expenditure,

which is basically expense

of the property plan and equipment.

I've taken that one

and I have pasted here,

which is an expense.

And then free cash flow

is basically the difference of this one

and this one since already it's negative.

Ali, I just have to put in some here.

So 77

-13 and gives you a 64

and that is basically our free cash flow.

So this is a free cash flow

slash discount cash flow model.

The growth rate of the free cash flow

is basically the final value divided

by the first value to the power.

The number of years, of this one,

we have taken five years

minus one,

and that gives you the growth rates.

So we've also got the earnings,

which is a net income,

which again, I'm copied

from the income statement.

You can just

go down in the net income statement,

you can get the values here.

So we're not going to use much

about the earnings or the net income.

But I'll come back to why

we have copy paste of this

so you guys can use it later.

So what's the difference

between a cash flow and earnings?

So basically

cash flow

is like the actual cash

that comes in goes through you.

So let's say your boss pays you £10,000

this month.

A On paper he might have paid £10,000.

So that would be reflecting the earnings

or on theory, I mean, practically,

he probably might not have paid it,

like he might have just given you £8,000

and told you, Hey, man,

I'm going to pay you back

next week or something like that.

The rest are £2,000, so

the cash flow will show

£8,000 is coming into your wallet

and £2,000 is yet to come.

So that is why people, including Warren

Buffett and value

investors like Bill

Ackman and Charlie Munger

and everybody focus on the cash flow

because that shows the actual amount

that has come and gone.

So cash flow from operations

is like if you're running a restaurant,

whatever money

you made from the restaurant,

from the sales of the restaurant,

that is the cash flow from operations,

cash flow from financing activities

will be

whatever came from like banking or,

you know, loans and debts

and all those things

that comes from the cash, from financing

and then cash from

investing is basically,

you know, the capital expenditure

or acquisitions and investments

and all those things.

So we will just be focusing on cash

from operations and CapEx

and the growth rate.

So now I'm going to put in the final

free cash flow here, 11443 equals.

So this one here.

Okay.

So we've got that values at year

one free cash flow.

So what is the present

value of it after one year?

So what happens

is that every year

the purchasing power of your $100

or whatever you have goes down.

So let's say you have $100

today, that's $100.

Ten years from now, it's not worth $100.

It might be worth

just one third of that value.

And that's

where the discount rate

comes into perspective.

So that is basically you take this one

and you divide it by that discount rate

to one plus 10%

to the power.

It's just one year.

So after year one,

the free cash flow is going to be that.

So 101.

So you can see

the number has reduced

from 111 to 101 311 for me too.

So I'm going to do a small

tip for you guys.

I'm just going to put in a dollar here.

So because that discount

rate is a constant,

so we've got the free cash flow here

and you've got the present value,

which is the discounted

value of the free cash flow.

So what happens in year two

is that every company

goes to a growth rate

and that's what we've calculated here.

We've got roughly 0.7,

only just basically 2%.

So putting growth rate of 12%

for the first

five years and growth

rate of 12% for the rest

five years as well.

So what happens is that this free cash

flow will grow next year.

So all I need to do is one plus

dollar, one plus this one here

and that's it.

I'm just going to give it a dollar sign.

Just put that a constant for

the first five years,

the growth rate is pretty much

I forgot to put the asterisk

here.

So next

year, the year free cash

flow will be 124,000.

I'm just going to do this

for the next five years,

so let's see if it has gone through.

Well, yeah.

139 156 175

So from year six

we're going to use another value.

So I'm just going to put this one here

and instead of be seven,

eight is going to be B eight,

drag all this thing down

and basically you have got

the free cash flow for the next year.

So obviously the present value

has to be reflecting as well.

So I'm going to drag this down as well

today

because you've got the present value.

So you can see that 300,000

which we are going to receive

ten years from now, is

basically just 119,000.

When you factor in the discount rate,

then what we need to do is

we can keep on doing this

the next ten years, 11

years, 15 years, 20 years.

So there's no point doing it

continuously for a substantial long time.

So what we do is we take the final value

and we multiply it

with the terminal value

that is number ten.

So this can be 15,

20 or five or eight up to you.

Universities have done a lot of research.

We just going to take

a rough measure of ten.

As of now,

it depends on your risk metric,

which we'll discuss in a bit.

We also need the present value

of that one as well.

So I'm going to drag

that one into the value.

So we've got this one value here

and all we need to do

is we just need to sum all these things

and we will get

the intrinsic value of the company.

So that's the intrinsic

value of the company.

So interesting

share price will be this

divided by outstanding shares.

So there

you go with the

intrinsic share price

that we have calculated is $144.

So what's the current price?

Current price is

basically the share price.

Now it's no difference.

So what's the 50% margin of safety?

That is the intrinsic share price

divided by two.

Okay.

So we've actually done

with our valuation,

you can see how simple the valuation is.

It's just putting in numbers in there

and just calculating the values.

So now comes the other thing

about conservative methodology

and more of a progressive or growth

kind of mentality kind of thing.

So if you can see this terminal value,

if I increase this number,

then the intrinsic value

calculation goes higher.

So if I keep it lower, then

the intrinsic value goes lower.

So you need to have like a smooth

kind of a measure

So I like to keep it at ten,

but again, it's up to you.

So if it's a company, it's

kind of like a risky

company is better off.

You become more conservative.

If it's not so risky company,

then you can go more higher numbers

as well.

It's the same thing goes for growth rate.

You can see the growth rate is 12%.

So that's our rough estimate calculation.

So I can change these values as well.

So we've calculated 2% growth

rate from the past five years.

So you can do it for the past ten years

or you can also get

some kind of subjective

kind of an assessment,

because in the past 12 years

we've been past five years,

we've been through quite a lot.

We've been through the coronavirus,

and that has affected the economy

and all those things.

The economy has been

in a difficult situation, so

we can assume that this 12%

might be a bit

underestimating the growth.

If I put in like 20%,

you can see

the intrinsic

share price suddenly goes to $185,

you know,

so you can play around with these growth

rate numbers,

but that is up to you really.

I would like to put it at 12%

right now,

but you can change it

to whatever you want.

So roughly,

our intrinsic share price is $144.

So according to Warren Buffett,

he likes investing in good companies.

Note the word good companies

at fair value.

So at the present moment,

with our valuation,

Apple is kind of in a fair value.

So buying this company

could be a good idea.

So on the other hand,

if you are investing in a company

which is young, like a growth company,

then I wouldn't recommend

investing at a fair value.

I would say

you might as well invest

in a 50% margin of safety.

So you have that

room for

error, that margin for error, so that

all these calculations can be wrong

and still

there is room for you guys to improve.

For example, Mohnish Pobrai

a huge,

huge advocate

for like a massive margin of safety.

So lots of myths out there

who really, really prefer

the margin safety

but in order to find margin of safety,

you need to know how to calculate

intrinsic value.

And that's what this video is all about,

to calculate the intrinsic value.

Now, coming back to the earnings.

So why have I put in the earnings

as well?

So sometimes, especially young companies,

their cash flow from operations

might be negative

because they are spending lots of money.

And so, for example,

I have a restaurant

and I'm

expanding the restaurant

to whatever money I'm

getting from the cash from operations.

I would be spending it

on more property and plants,

and I'll be expanding the restaurant

in one city to another city

so my free cash flow can be negative.

So in that case,

calculate the free cash flow model

will be a difficult thing to do

because we have all got

negative values in here.

So in that case, using

the net income will be far more ideal.

So for instance,

if you go to Netflix

and Netflix had a negative cash

flow a few years back,

So if I can go Netflix,

you can look at cash

flow from operations,

you can see there's

a bit of a negative value here.

So during that time it's better off

buying.

I mean, assessing your statements

by using the earnings

and putting the earnings

final number here.

You also don't need

to put the final values

in the free cash flow or the net income.

You can actually take an average of this.

Again,

that'll be like a conservative

way of doing it.

Or you can subtract,

you know, 20, 30% of the final value.

These are all subjective.

You can change around,

you can play around

with all these things,

but this is just the

theoretical form

of calculating the discounted

cash flow model.

It's all about adjusting your numbers

based on your risk profile.

He's now just alone.

Doing this is not enough.

You need to calculate.

You need to find out

the return on invested capital.

You need to assess a debt to equity.

You need to understand

the retained earnings growth rate.

You need to know whether the company

has got a depreciation asset

like, for example,

any of the manufacturing companies.

They tend to have higher CapEx.

So every year

they will have to spend

a huge, considerable amount of money

on expanding their factories

and maintaining their factories.

But some companies, they don't need to.

For example,

the reason why Warren Buffett likes

Moody's is simply

because they barely have any CapEx.

So you need to assess

not just the intrinsic value,

but everything from the debt,

from the ownership, from the increase

in the growth

rate of the sales, the revenue,

all these things

factoring in when choosing a company.

But this is just a simple template

for you guys

to calculate the intrinsic value.

So I have made a pretty decent amount

in the value based

investing the past few months

in this month alone, I made 24% return.

That's for this year

and that's been one month.

So I was able to buy

a lot of cheap stock,

especially made

some great returns in Netflix and in

I think Adobe as well.

So these two are

the big ones that I perform well.

So it

you can see a blurred out

some of the things that total value

we can see this is a real account

the number is here.

I also got a quantity based fund as well.

So either way,

if you do value based investing

or quant based investing,

it involves lots of work.

It's just not

you know, it's not that easy.

If quant based trading involves

lots of coding

and lots of mathematical analysis,

value based investing involves a lot

a lot of readings.

You have to read

a considerable amount of books

and financial statements.

And our report

try to find out small things

like contingent liabilities

and things like that,

because those kind of

factors play a huge factor

in choosing a company.

You need to understand

the management is management

have any fraudulent behavior

and all those things will factor

in while doing a value based investing.

So having a great portfolio,

both value based

investing and quant

based investing would be a great idea

that a lot of data available out there,

lots of information available out there,

and I hope

this video will give you the foundations

on how to calculate the intrinsic value.

So what I'm going to do in

the future is I'll

I'll do a balance sheet and also

income statement

and cash flow statement analysis

so you guys can understand how

how to read these statements

much effectively.

So because enjoy this video.

Have a great, great day.

คลิกที่ข้อความหรือไทม์สแตมป์ใดก็ได้เพื่อข้ามไปยังช่วงเวลานั้นในวิดีโอ

แชร์:

คำบรรยายส่วนใหญ่พร้อมภายใน 5 วินาที

คัดลอกด้วยคลิกเดียว125+ ภาษาค้นหาเนื้อหาข้ามไปยังไทม์สแตมป์

วาง YouTube URL

ใส่ลิงก์วิดีโอ YouTube ใดก็ได้เพื่อรับคำบรรยายฉบับเต็ม

คำบรรยายส่วนใหญ่พร้อมภายใน 5 วินาที

ติดตั้ง Chrome Extension ของเรา

ดึงคำบรรยายได้ทันทีโดยไม่ต้องออกจาก YouTube ติดตั้ง Chrome Extension เพื่อเข้าถึงคำบรรยายวิดีโอใดก็ได้ด้วยคลิกเดียวบนหน้าวิดีโอโดยตรง

เพิ่มลงใน Chrome — ฟรี

รองรับ YouTube, Coursera, Udemy และแพลตฟอร์มการเรียนรู้อื่นๆ อีกมากมาย

รับคำบรรยายทันที: แก้ไขโดเมนในแถบที่อยู่ของคุณได้เลย!

YouTube

←

→

↻

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UF8uR6Z6KLc

YoutubeToText

←

→

↻

https://youtubetotext.net/watch?v=UF8uR6Z6KLc

คำบรรยาย YouTubeกำลังเตรียมผลลัพธ์ให้คุณ…

คำบรรยาย YouTube:Calculate Intrinsic Value of a Stock like Warren Buffet - Example 2023

AutoDub

คำบรรยายวิดีโอ

Summary

Core Theme

วาง YouTube URL

แบบฟอร์มดึงคำบรรยาย

ติดตั้ง Chrome Extension ของเรา

รับคำบรรยายทันที: แก้ไขโดเมนในแถบที่อยู่ของคุณได้เลย!

คำบรรยาย YouTube:
Calculate Intrinsic Value of a Stock like Warren Buffet - Example 2023