0:02 The last A Song of Ice and Fire book,
0:04 Ants with Dragons came out over 14 years
0:06 ago now. And in the time since, A Song
0:08 of Ice and Fire fans have been looking
0:10 for the winds of winter as though it
0:12 were an illusory oasis on the horizon
0:14 for every single one of us. I joined
0:16 this community back in 2016, but I only
0:18 started making videos on the subject
0:21 late in 2022 around when House of the
0:23 Dragon was airing its first season. At
0:25 that point, George R. Martin was on
0:27 something of a press tour for this new
0:29 show. He wanted to promote it and
0:31 promote his work. And in doing so, he
0:33 shared a lot of details on his active
0:35 progress with The Winds of Winter. We
0:37 heard things like it was going to be 300
0:39 pages longer than the longest volumes in
0:42 the series so far. He had,00 to,200
0:44 pages done. He was about 2third of the
0:47 way through and certain characters were
0:49 at or nearing the point of completion on
0:51 their arcs. Tyrion being the one he
0:54 continually referred to. In the time
0:56 since I have joined this community as
0:58 someone who talks about these books and
0:59 the time since House of the Dragons
1:01 first season, we have received little to
1:04 no uh information in the way of actual
1:06 updates on the writing progress of the
1:08 Winter Winter. But there have been hints
1:10 and indications in other places. And
1:12 today I'd like to go over all of those
1:14 little things we've learned in the two
1:16 years since that time or I guess three
1:19 years now. Wow, I'm getting old. Before
1:21 we jump into more recent updates, it's
1:24 worth noting that this October/ August
1:27 baseline of 2022 is not necessarily
1:29 accurate to itself, as was first pointed
1:31 out to me at least by the excellent
1:33 YouTuber Admiral Kurd in his video
1:35 discussing when the winds of winter is
1:37 coming. Specifically, Martin both says
1:39 that it is going to be 300 pages longer
1:41 than the longest books in the series,
1:42 which would make it about 1,800
1:45 manuscript pages and then also says that
1:48 he is 3/4 of the way finished with,00
1:51 to,200 pages done. That math does not
1:54 quite add up. That's closer to a 2/3
1:57 mark than it is to a 3/4 mark if we are
1:59 considering 1,800 to be the full total
2:01 of the winds of winter, which I do think
2:05 is most likely at this point. So while
2:07 that 3/4 figure is inaccurate, I am
2:10 going to assume that the 1100 to 1200 is
2:11 likely accurate given the fact that
2:13 Martin had previously talked to his
2:15 publishers in that same visit where he
2:17 talked to Colbear, so he had reason to
2:20 take inventory. I will also say near the
2:22 top here that George R. Martin is still
2:24 actively writing The Winds of Winter. A
2:25 lot of grifters and a lot of
2:28 clickbaiters tend to say, "Oh, he's
2:29 given up. There's no progress being
2:31 made. Nothing is happening. He's written
2:33 zero pages." that factually isn't true
2:35 based on what we've heard from sources
2:37 beyond George R. Martin himself and I do
2:39 think that it is worth noting that there
2:41 is evidence that he has continued to
2:42 work over these years. I don't think
2:44 there is any merit to the thought that
2:46 oh he has just given up. There are some
2:48 quotes that people take out of context
2:50 that sure can make it seem that way, but
2:52 I will address each of those in time.
2:53 But from here on in I'm going to go
2:55 through sort of a timeline starting
2:57 towards the end of 2022 when we got our
3:00 last big information roundup. Last
3:02 disclaimer being that I have been too
3:05 optimistic before I put out a video
3:06 around the airing of House of the Dragon
3:09 second season. While I was very much
3:10 looking forward to the publication of
3:12 the winter winter and thought it was
3:14 imminent due to a number of signs that I
3:16 was misreading, a lot of the things that
3:17 I had cropped up as things that could be
3:20 oh Martin hiding some signs of release
3:21 ended up being signs of a conflict
3:23 between him and the House of the Dragon
3:25 showrunners, which I will get to later
3:27 on in this video. But regardless, I'm
3:29 trying to take a measured view of this
3:31 while still maintaining just sort of a
3:33 view on the facts while not kind of
3:36 giving into either doom or hope in equal
3:39 measure. So, our first update after that
3:43 big information roundup from late 2022
3:46 comes from also late 2022. George R.
3:49 Martin tends to do year-end blog posts
3:50 and that's a lot of the way that people
3:53 tend to measure kind of goal posts for
3:55 how he is doing on the winds of winter
3:57 as he doesn't talk about it a ton a ton
3:59 on his blog regularly but it does
4:00 usually make an appearance and a
4:02 progress report in this year-end post
4:04 and this year-end post is interesting
4:06 from a tonal perspective. He does
4:08 specifically reference working on the
4:10 winds of winter, but he does reference
4:12 it again and again and says that if uh
4:13 people forgot if he forgot to mention
4:16 it, people would end up jumping down his
4:17 throat, which does make it seem as
4:19 though this kind of information overload
4:22 that has been coming out in 2022 has
4:23 sort of gotten to Martin. And while he
4:25 is still working on it, he is very much
4:28 taking kind of a a more relaxed pace at
4:30 giving people updates at this point as
4:32 he feels like he has had to do that for
4:34 all of these media appearances for House
4:36 of the Dragons season 1. So I think that
4:37 is at least part of the reason as to why
4:40 we've maybe heard less going forward.
4:43 Also at the end of 2022, we have the
4:45 first of two what I would like to call
4:48 info dump blog posts. not necessarily
4:49 about the progress of the winds of
4:52 winter, but a blog post where Martin is
4:53 directly telling us information about
4:55 his setting, about Westeros, and about
4:57 the winds of winter, and he's just kind
4:59 of adding it as context for things we
5:01 will see in the future of the series.
5:03 This one goes into Castasterly Rock, how
5:05 it actually looks, how it actually
5:06 functions, and specifically a lot of
5:09 elements of its naval defense, which at
5:10 the time led me to believe that there
5:12 would be some presence of Castro Rock in
5:14 the winter winter. Well, not just
5:15 believe that he's said that, but believe
5:17 that that presence likely comes from
5:19 Tyrion andor Victarion invading this
5:22 castle by sea and potentially claiming
5:25 it for Queen Daenerys. There is another
5:26 point that I've seen elsewhere that I
5:28 want to address as well. That being that
5:31 Martin tends to blog about his writing
5:33 if it is going well. And while that is
5:34 true to an extent, we definitely get
5:36 more posts from Martin about the winds
5:39 of winter in COVID when he is trapped in
5:41 his cabin and just writing. And
5:42 obviously when he was writing A Dance
5:44 with Dragons, he was giving incredibly
5:46 detailed progress updates down to which
5:48 characters were getting chapters, which
5:50 days, and which ones were actively
5:52 giving him trouble. I do think something
5:55 has changed since that era, though. I've
5:57 heard people say, "Oh, because Martin
5:59 isn't doing what he did with the dance
6:00 leadup, this kind of ball rolling
6:03 downhill where there is this massive
6:05 uptick in updates, that there's no
6:07 progress being made." I don't think
6:08 that's necessarily the case. You need to
6:10 think that when he was writing A Dance
6:12 with Dragons, it was a fundamentally
6:14 different situation as the show hadn't
6:15 come out yet. There weren't as many
6:18 contractual concerns going on. And I
6:19 believe that he was probably less
6:21 concerned about uh people hyper
6:23 analyzing his blog and potentially
6:24 finding out spoilers for Dance with
6:26 Dragons than he now is with The Winds of Winter.
6:28 Winter.
6:30 We now enter the wonderful year of 2023
6:32 when I graduated college. And at this
6:35 point, I've seen 2023 references a year
6:37 where not much happened on the winds of
6:39 winter for George RR Martin. And I think
6:41 a reason people think that is there
6:44 really wasn't a yearend post for 2023
6:46 where he kind of recapped what had been
6:48 going on for the year. But there are
6:49 references to writing the winds of
6:52 winter throughout his blog for that
6:54 period, specifically in reference to the
6:56 writer strike. In his first uh post
6:58 discussing the Hollywood writer strike,
7:00 he says that this is not affecting the
7:01 winds of winter because he knows people
7:03 will be upset if it potentially is. But
7:05 later on in July, the strike started in
7:07 May for reference. He says he's been
7:08 working on the winds of winter almost
7:10 every day. And it is worth noting that
7:12 while the writer strike doesn't directly
7:14 affect the winds of winter, the fact
7:16 that all of these TV and movie projects
7:18 were shut down for this time does make
7:20 me think that he is very much telling
7:21 the truth that he has been actively
7:23 working on the winds of winter uh
7:25 throughout this entire period. So I tend
7:27 to think 2023, at least the strike
7:30 period was probably better than most for
7:32 Martin in terms of winds writing. I do
7:34 want to interrupt myself to ask, what do
7:36 you think of all of these miscellaneous
7:37 updates? Have I missed anything
7:38 substantial? Let me know in the comments
7:39 and be sure to leave a like and
7:41 subscribe. It really helps the channel
7:43 and I think like over half of my viewers
7:45 aren't subscribed, so you know, just
7:48 make sure be nice. Thank you. Our last
7:49 concrete quantitative update from the
7:52 man himself came on a podcast appearance
7:55 on Bangcast at the end of 2023 where he
7:58 made reference to having,00 pages done.
7:59 This is interesting given the fact that
8:03 he did give the 1100 to,200 figure the
8:05 year prior when he was in New York with
8:08 Steven Colbear and overall I don't put
8:11 too too much stock in that figure at
8:13 that point. I tend to think that Martin
8:15 just hadn't taken count at that point.
8:16 From what we understand it doesn't seem
8:18 like he does that that often unless he
8:20 needs to present it to his publishers
8:22 which as far as we know he did not need
8:25 to do for all of 2023. So overall I
8:28 don't put a ton of stock in that one. I
8:30 believe 2024 was a worse year for
8:32 writing the winds of winter than 2023
8:34 was. And I think there is evidence to
8:36 that fact. First and foremost, we don't
8:38 get much on the book through the first
8:40 half of the year. But Martin does really
8:42 take an uptick in blogs throughout June
8:44 and July, which is part of what led to
8:47 my stareyed optimism uh in that month
8:49 that led to that video saying, "Oh,
8:50 maybe something's happening." But
8:52 regardless, two posts here stand out to
8:55 me. The first is another info dump post
8:58 and it was the second chronologically,
9:00 but it goes deep into dragons and their
9:02 bonding mechanics and how exactly they
9:05 work in the winds of winter. Unlike
9:07 Castasterly Rocks info dump blog post,
9:09 this one seems to be directly spurred by
9:11 something outside of the winds of winter
9:13 itself. specifically House of the Dragon
9:15 second season. It seems like Martin was
9:16 annoyed with some of the mechanics of
9:18 dragons therein, likely Sheepsteeler
9:20 taking residence in the veil, though he
9:22 didn't end up actually doing a full blog
9:24 post on that because of something we'll
9:26 get to in a minute here. But regardless,
9:28 I do think this was very much aimed at
9:30 House of the Dragon and shows that he is
9:31 intending to correct the record on this
9:33 information in the Winds of Winter as he
9:35 directly states that we will learn more
9:37 about dragon bonding in the winds of winter.
9:38 winter.
9:40 There was also another post in July of
9:43 2022 where he specifically outlined that
9:46 winds was not imminent, which I took as
9:48 a great sign at the time. Of course,
9:50 this is an interesting post and it can
9:52 tell us something fairly important about
9:54 the future of the winds of winter.
9:56 Specifically, many people say and
9:58 continually repeat to this day that
9:59 there's not going to be any big
10:00 announcement about the winds of winter.
10:02 Martin is going to at first announce it
10:04 on his blog and then maybe there will be
10:06 some big announcement elsewhere. This
10:09 post directly disproves that. He had in
10:11 the past said that the blog was going to
10:12 be the first place that anyone would
10:14 hear about the winds of winter. But now
10:17 in this post from July of 2024, he says,
10:19 "Oh, there will be some big announcement
10:21 whenever it is completed, but when and
10:22 where, I cannot say. This does very much
10:24 disprove the notion that this will just
10:27 be a blog thing, so it could come out at
10:29 any point at some event or something.
10:32 I'm not sure." Also in July of 2024,
10:34 which I almost forgot, the new covers
10:36 for the series, new editions were
10:38 announced. And I do tend to think this
10:40 is a better sign for The Winds of Winter
10:42 than many other things. As in the series
10:45 past, anytime there's been a new book,
10:46 there has been a new printing of all of
10:49 the previous books to match up their
10:50 covers to whatever the new design is
10:52 because they don't match. Instead of, I
10:53 think, a Game of Thrones and a Clash of
10:55 Kings, which came out only 2 years
10:57 apart. So, I don't think that these
10:59 covers necessarily mean that wins is
11:01 imminent. Obviously, it isn't because
11:02 it's now been almost a year and a half
11:05 since this blog post, but I do think
11:07 when the winds of winter is inevitably
11:09 announced, it will have a cover that
11:11 mirrors these ones. It'll be design
11:13 matching them. And I think that this is
11:15 kind of writing the ground for that
11:18 arrival. In September of 2024, we get an
11:20 update after his return from a trip in
11:22 Europe that caused his blog to stall for
11:24 a couple months. And it is one that is
11:26 fairly pessimistic and one of the bigger
11:29 arrows in that quiver. Specifically, he
11:31 gives insight into what's been going on
11:33 throughout the year up until that point
11:34 because not only did that trip to Europe
11:36 prevent him from writing for a couple
11:38 months, but the earlier part of the year
11:39 was pretty difficult in terms of
11:42 actually writing itself. He says that he
11:44 does produce pages on the Winds of
11:46 Winter and Blood and Fire, which is a
11:48 first in terms of him confirming that
11:50 pages are done there, but overall it
11:53 says that it is very hard to do it at
11:54 that time and not many pages were
11:56 produced. Not as many as he would have
11:59 liked. So I think this paints 2024 as a
12:01 year where well yes some progress was
12:04 made probably the slowest year since co
12:06 if I had to guess based on this
12:09 information. With that said I think
12:11 something happens about a week after
12:14 that blog post in September of 2024 that
12:17 prompts the trajectory of the winds of
12:19 winter and Martin's writing to change a
12:21 little bit. Martin's now famous Beware
12:23 the Butterflies blog post comes out
12:25 where he very publicly sends a shot
12:27 across the bow of not only House of the
12:30 Dragon but the showrunner thereof. It is
12:32 then deleted. I wonder why. There are a
12:34 number of reasons it could have been. I
12:36 think the most likely one is HBO saying
12:38 that it had to be pulled given the fact
12:39 that Martin made reference to events
12:42 that were to happen in season 3 that
12:44 weren't yet confirmed. He referenced
12:46 specifically Ryan Condle's notes on
12:48 things that he had planned for season 3.
12:51 And I think that was probably a nogo.
12:52 But after this point, I think there is
12:55 evidence that Martin tended to want to
12:57 focus more on the books than the HBO
12:59 adaptations going forward. He does still
13:01 speak very positively about Duncan Egg,
13:03 as he does seem to have a lot of hope
13:05 for that adaptation, as do I, but there
13:07 is a change in how he seems to think
13:09 about things. A month later, Martin
13:12 posts positively about writing a Braavos
13:14 short story after The Winds of Winter is
13:17 completed. And then early in 2025, he
13:19 says something that I view as very
13:21 informative on his progress throughout
13:23 this period of time. And I do think it
13:26 is quite contrasting to what he had said
13:28 in September prior to the Beware the
13:30 Butterflies blog post. It's not
13:32 quantitative. It's not I've written X
13:35 pages. It's how the progress is actually
13:37 going. to quote from an interview during
13:39 March of 2025, "There's always the
13:41 books." And I'm aware that people think
13:43 that, but no, I have to get back. I have
13:45 to finish the books. That's the one
13:47 thing that I'm completely in control of.
13:49 There's no budget limitations. There's
13:51 no executives on the studio side I have
13:52 to please or other writers with
13:55 different views. The books are what I'm
13:56 going to make them. And I think the one
13:59 I'm writing is coming pretty well, but I
14:01 wish it would come faster. This is a
14:04 shift from Martin's overall tone earlier
14:06 in 2024 where he was saying writing was
14:09 actively coming pretty hard. Now he is
14:11 saying it is going quite well and he is
14:14 moving along at a decent pace. And it is
14:15 worth noting there are other shifts in
14:18 the way he talks around this point as
14:19 well. Specifically, if we look back at
14:22 October of 2024, we see him talking
14:24 about uh writing more Duncan egg after
14:26 finishing the winds of winter. Oh yes,
14:28 yes, I know, I know. It's in very
14:30 uncertain terms and it seems as though
14:32 oh this is something a million years
14:34 away but then fast forward to 2025
14:37 January of 2025. So only a couple months
14:40 later he specifically says uh and once I
14:41 finish the winds of winter I'll need to
14:43 get hopping on the village hero. To me
14:45 that's a lot more certainty in a very
14:47 short amount of time. It seems as though
14:49 he is kind of reconnecting with the
14:51 books and realizing that this is kind of
14:55 the way to his legacy. This brings us to
14:56 what I believe to be the most
14:58 misunderstood thing that Martin has ever
14:59 said about the winds of winter. And it
15:02 does really kind of make me sad. Howard
15:04 meets Hercules was a post from May of
15:07 2025 where Martin ended up ranting about
15:09 uh the expectations that go along with
15:11 the winds of winter. Specifically, he
15:13 says that fans have given up on him or
15:16 the book and overall if he doesn't if he
15:17 finishes it, he won't finish the uh
15:19 dream of spring. and it's just very
15:21 pessimistic and goes through all of
15:23 these reasons people tend to doubt him
15:25 and just overall crap on any work that
15:28 isn't the winds of winter at this point.
15:29 The thing is that isn't the only
15:31 paragraph there. He isn't saying all of
15:33 this that he believes it too. He's
15:35 saying it is what he's sick of hearing
15:37 from people. He doesn't seem to believe
15:38 that at all. Specifically, he says that
15:40 he does still care about the winds of
15:42 winter and all of these other works as
15:44 well. This has been taken out of context
15:47 in so many places saying that Martin is
15:49 oh putting all of these other projects
15:50 ahead of the winds of winter. He just
15:52 has other things that he is working on
15:54 as well. It makes sense that he is going
15:56 to be doing other things. And I think
15:58 that overall it probably would be better
15:59 for the Winds of Winter if he isn't just
16:01 hitting his head against it constantly
16:04 stuck as he was in 2024 and instead
16:06 rotating between different projects that
16:08 interest him and allowing the creativity
16:10 to flow more freely, thus allowing
16:12 probably more creativity to flow in the
16:14 winds of winter. There is another update
16:16 kind of to discuss that I don't quite
16:18 believe which comes from another author.
16:20 She says that he said, which makes it
16:23 already hearsay, that Martin was about
16:26 70% through the book at this point in
16:29 lateish 2025. I think it was like August
16:31 or September when this came out. But
16:32 overall, not only is this kind of a
16:34 secondary source that I don't entirely
16:36 believe. There are elements of it that
16:39 could make it true and could make 70%
16:41 make a bit more sense given that he did
16:43 previously give the 75% figure. As I
16:45 said at the top, 75% wouldn't
16:48 necessarily be accurate to uh the work
16:51 as Martin had already outlined it. 75%
16:54 of 1800 is not 1100 or 1,200.
16:57 Specifically, Reddit user uh Cautioner's
16:59 Tale goes into this idea, which I do
17:02 quite like, that if this 70% figure is
17:05 indeed accurate, it likely reflects 70%
17:07 of the 18800 manuscript page total,
17:10 meaning that it could be over the 1500
17:12 manuscript page mark, which would be
17:13 quite remarkable because that is the
17:15 longest point for books in the series so
17:17 far. So, I would tend to think this
17:19 update is either completely incorrect or
17:23 misqued or it is some mark of progress
17:26 that might sound bad, but on reflection
17:28 might be a little bit more positive. And
17:29 that's part of what frustrates me. A lot
17:32 of what I've seen of late is just these
17:34 continuous clickbait articles saying
17:36 that either Martin has given up on the
17:38 winds of winter or that he's doing
17:39 anything but working on the winds of
17:41 winter. Martin is doing some other
17:43 things. I talked about that AI lawsuit
17:45 in a video a couple weeks ago, but that
17:47 is something that Martin is not actively
17:49 doing. He's not a lawyer. He's not doing
17:51 this. If something that he wrote is
17:53 being adapted, it's not going to be him
17:55 actually doing the adaptation. He did
17:57 the work already. He is not actively
17:59 doing all these things. He might help
18:01 supervise a project or send a couple
18:02 emails about it, but overall, he's not
18:05 actively writing or litigating these
18:07 things. And I do think that is reflected
18:09 in Martin's current uh just general
18:12 vibe. I was at New York City Comic- Con
18:13 a couple months ago, and I really
18:15 thought that he seemed quite happy,
18:17 which I thought was very good and very
18:19 good for not only the state of the winds
18:21 of winter, but him in general, because
18:23 it is important to realize that George
18:26 RR Martin is a person who needs to be
18:29 respected as an artist. My main point in
18:31 making this video is to show that The
18:33 Winds of Winter is not an algorithm.
18:34 It's not something that can just be
18:36 produced. It's not a piece of content.
18:39 It is a piece of art. There are good
18:41 times, there are bad times. Martin goes
18:42 through points where the writing is
18:44 coming easily. He goes through points
18:46 where he is actively struggling on it,
18:48 but he does continue to work. And I
18:49 think that is very important to
18:51 consider. And overall, it's just
18:54 important to keep in mind that he is a
18:56 person and one who has given us so much
18:58 at this point. And I do think it is
19:00 crucial to bear that in mind when
19:02 thinking about the winds of winter. Yes,
19:04 it has been a very long time. Yes, I
19:05 would have loved it to come out earlier.
19:07 But overall, if it is going to ensure
19:09 that there is a quality product at the
19:12 end of the road, I am going to obviously
19:15 prefer that. I think it would be useful
19:17 to at the end of this exercise go over
19:20 what I think I've gleaned from it. This
19:22 effective timeline that I have now
19:25 created based entirely on clues from the
19:28 blog and the media ecosystem. So,
19:29 getting into it, we got all of this
19:32 information towards the end of 2022.
19:35 Barton returns the end of 2022 and is
19:36 tired from all of this and tired of
19:38 being asked about wins, which very much
19:41 sets the tenor for not giving a ton of
19:43 information going forward. 2023 seems
19:46 like a pretty good year for the book as
19:48 a whole. The writer strike is happening,
19:50 meaning all of these TV projects are on
19:52 hold, so there isn't much to do other
19:54 than write, which he does almost every
19:56 day. There isn't a year-end blog post
19:58 which does cause some people to panic
20:00 along with that Bangcast interview, but
20:02 it seems likely that that estimate was
20:05 not updated from the year prior. Beyond
20:07 that, 2024, at least the earlier half
20:09 seems as though it was a bit more
20:11 difficult. The writing was coming hard
20:13 and then it was followed by this couple
20:15 monthong European vacation. But upon his
20:17 return and getting into September,
20:19 Martin seems to have picked up
20:21 motivation again, potentially spurred by
20:23 House of the Dragon and its continued
20:25 divergence from his source material.
20:27 Going into 2025, Martin has seemed in
20:29 generally high spirits, especially at
20:31 things like New York Comic-Con. So, I'm
20:33 also inclined to believe that while
20:34 writing might not be progressing as
20:36 quickly as it would have been over CO or
20:40 in 2023, the work does continue. But
20:42 yeah, that's where we stand as of
20:45 whatever today is. Uh, November 17th,
20:47 2025. This could be made irrelevant the
20:50 day after I post it. We will see. That's
20:51 the day I'm recording it. I'm not
20:53 posting it the same day. I don't have
20:56 that kind of time. Thank you all so much
20:57 for watching. If you enjoyed this video,
20:58 be sure to leave a like and subscribe.
21:00 Any support is really appreciated. I'll
21:02 have many more videos for you in the
21:03 near future on Duncan Egg, House of the
21:05 Dragon, A Song of the A Song of the Ice
21:08 and Fire, and uh, Game of Thrones, all
21:10 that stuff and more. and I hope you'll
21:11 join me for all of those. I'm very
21:13 excited about a few projects. I have a
21:14 Daenerys video I'm working on that I'm
21:16 really looking forward to and I cannot
21:17 wait to share it with you. Goodbye everyone.
