0:01 Hey guys, hope you're well. In this
0:02 video, we're going to be going through
0:03 some pretty crazy things that have been
0:04 happening with Jerome Pal at the moment
0:06 and how you can actually use this
0:07 information to catch trades. For
0:09 example, here on gold and here on
0:10 silver, both of these trades were taken
0:12 off the same reasons with Jerome Pal.
0:13 And this is what we're going to get into
0:15 in this video. So, let's get into it.
0:16 First things first, the Federal Reserve
0:18 is obviously the central bank of the US.
0:20 Right now, the Fed is an independent
0:22 entity. I want to stress the word here
0:24 independent. Now, the goal of the Fed is
0:26 their dual mandate, right? Which is
0:28 maximum employment and stable prices.
0:29 stable prices as in just meaning a
0:31 control of inflation, right? So, this is
0:32 their goal, the dual matter. That's
0:34 their main focus. What they want to pay
0:36 attention to the most. Now, because the
0:37 Fed is an independent entity, they don't
0:38 want to pay attention to other things,
0:40 right? For example, they're not going to
0:41 pay attention to politics. They're not
0:42 trying to get involved. Their goal is
0:44 the dual mandate, maximum employment,
0:46 stable prices. Okay? So, basically
0:48 what's been happening is that for a
0:49 while now, Trump is obviously wanting
0:51 lower rates, right? He's been pushing
0:52 very, very hard um specifically on
0:54 Jerome Powell, which is obviously the
0:56 chair of the Fed. um be pushing him very
0:58 very hard to to cut rates, right?
0:59 Because obviously Jerome Pal being the
1:01 chair, he has a very big control over
1:03 these rates, right? He can't obviously
1:04 he can't make it exactly what he wants.
1:06 There is a board, they vote, but he does
1:08 have a very big influence over that
1:09 board, right? Obviously because he's a
1:11 chair. Now, what's happened as a kind of
1:13 another step up is what's happened is
1:15 that the US federal prosecutors have
1:17 basically opened an inquiry into Federal
1:19 Reserve Chair Pal. Okay, so this is
1:22 basically another push towards lowering
1:24 rates. Um it is a very very big push.
1:26 This is not something uh yeah this is
1:28 pretty big deal um and it's going to
1:30 yeah another very serious push to to
1:32 kind of pressure um Juran Pal into
1:34 cutting rates and also going to put in
1:37 question the Fed's independence right so
1:38 first we have to think of you know how
1:39 is this actually going to affect what
1:41 we're trading okay so they want him out
1:43 obviously because they want more
1:44 interest rate cuts okay so what do
1:46 interest rate cuts actually do now what
1:48 do they do they are going to generally
1:50 weaken the currency I put generally here
1:51 because there are different situations
1:52 where we might see different reactions
1:54 but obviously I'm not going to go
1:55 through them here. But as a general rule
1:57 of thumb, when we do have interest rate
1:58 cuts or we are pricing in for interest
2:00 rate cuts, we're typically going to see
2:03 that currency weaken. Okay. Now, the
2:04 fact that they're going to the extent of
2:06 basically launching a criminal
2:08 investigation against PAL really shows
2:10 you how badly they want to cut rates,
2:12 right? And it also shows that PAL is not
2:14 really set on cutting rates, which is,
2:15 you know, it's it's pretty insane that
2:17 they have to, you know, go to this
2:18 length of basically, yeah, launching a
2:20 criminal investigation for him to, you
2:22 know, to try and get him to crack to try
2:24 and get rid of him, right? So what is
2:26 this going to do to the US dollar? So we
2:28 can obviously see you know here how
2:29 badly they want rates to cut. We can
2:31 also understand that Pal's term is
2:33 ending soon. So the obviously the new
2:35 chair is going to be very aligned with
2:36 the president what the president wants
2:38 which is going to be rate cuts. So with
2:40 all this information right we obviously
2:41 we're going to get US dollar um
2:43 weakness. Okay. Because we know that the
2:45 next step inevitably is going to be rate
2:47 cuts. But now they're pushing so heavily
2:48 um for example you know launching a
2:50 criminal investigation. They're pushing
2:51 so heavily to get him out to try and get
2:53 cuts. you can understand that they are
2:55 going to really really want cuts and
2:56 when they get it their way there's going
2:58 to be some serious serious cuts right
2:59 which is going to cause US dollar
3:01 weakness okay so based off this
3:02 information we're going to expect we're
3:04 going to typically see US dollar
3:06 weakness right now something else really
3:07 important to pay attention to is
3:09 actually the Fed independence right if I
3:11 come back to here obviously the Fed is
3:13 an independent entity but by you know
3:14 looking at all this stuff that we've
3:16 been going through it doesn't really
3:18 show that the Fed is that independent if
3:20 they are going to crack if you know if
3:21 certain things happen right and that
3:23 puts obviously the Fed independence in
3:25 question. This is also a very very big
3:27 deal and this is going to cause a lot of
3:28 uncertainty, right? So obviously when we
3:30 have uncertainty in the markets, we
3:32 don't know exactly what's going to
3:33 happen. We're going to see those safe
3:35 havens typically gain strength. Okay, so
3:36 for example, we're going to see gold
3:37 upside, we're going to see silver
3:38 upside. Okay, obviously there's going to
3:40 be a lot more reactions, but I'm just
3:41 going over these two because this is
3:44 what I actually traded. Okay, so we have
3:46 the US dollar weakness and we have gold
3:48 upside and silver upside. Okay. Now,
3:50 also we can come to Pal's comments and
3:52 here we can see here that he says um the
3:53 threat of criminal charges is a
3:55 consequence of the Fed setting interest
3:56 rates based on its assessment of public
3:58 interest rather than the president's
4:00 preferences. Okay, which is um yeah,
4:01 it's a pretty crazy statement. It's kind
4:04 of half ridiculous, half pretty scary.
4:05 Um and then we have the next comment
4:07 here which is a broader issue is whether
4:08 the Federal Reserve will continue
4:10 setting interest rates based on evidence
4:11 and economics or be directed by
4:13 political pressure and intimidation.
4:15 Right? Again, stemming back to the Fed
4:17 independence in question, right? Are
4:18 they going to do it how they have been
4:21 doing it based on evidence and economics
4:22 or are they going to be, you know what I
4:23 mean? Are they going to be
4:26 non-independent and focus on politics?
4:28 Um, right here, political pressure and
4:30 intimidation. Okay, this is yeah, again,
4:32 very big deal. Now, again, the last one,
4:34 he has a deep respect for the law, but
4:36 calls action unprecedented and it says
4:37 and says it should be viewed in the
4:38 context of administration ongoing
4:40 threats against the central bank. Right.
4:43 Again, Fed independence in question. are
4:44 they really their own entity? We're
4:46 going to see, you know, big big things
4:48 are going to happen um this year, right?
4:50 So, basically with all this information,
4:52 we can see that we're going to expect
4:53 with from this release, we're going to
4:54 expect US dollar weakness and then we're
4:57 going to also expect gold upside, silver
4:59 upside. Okay, so now let's jump onto the
5:00 charts so I can show you everything that
5:02 I'm doing technically. Okay, so this is
5:04 the gold trade right here. First, we'll
5:05 go over this one and then we'll jump
5:06 over to the silver one. Okay, so this
5:08 trade actually got in a little bit
5:09 later. I got this we got the information
5:11 related 11:05 my time, I believe. If if
5:13 you're in New York, that will be around
5:15 7:05 p.m. Um, and you can see here that
5:17 I got in around 11:10 to 11:15, right?
5:19 So, a little bit later, but nothing too
5:20 crazy. So, basically, we get the
5:22 information, right? Like I've explained
5:23 previously, we're expecting that dollar
5:24 weakness. We want to see that gold
5:26 strength. So, if I come over to the DXY,
5:28 which is the dollar index, we can see
5:30 right at 11:05, we do get quite
5:32 aggressive weakness. Okay, keep in mind,
5:34 we're actually in Asian session as well,
5:36 right? So for us to get this weakness on
5:37 the US dollar this aggressively in the
5:39 middle of Asian session means that
5:40 whatever is happening is something quite
5:42 significant right and obviously what we
5:43 what we've discussed what we've been
5:45 through before is very very significant.
5:47 Okay. Now, in terms of technical
5:49 analysis, I did not use much technical
5:50 analysis at all with this trade. Um,
5:51 partly because there wasn't much
5:53 structure and if I waited for, you know,
5:55 a setup to happen, a structure point to
5:57 form to then break. Um, it probably
5:58 would have missed this move, right? And
6:00 also because, you know, we are getting
6:01 this aggressive weakness. We can see
6:03 that the markets are reacting. This is
6:05 such a big kind of situation that's
6:07 that's kind of taken place. Um, I don't
6:09 really need to wait for those
6:09 technicals, right? I have the
6:11 fundamental reasons and I can enter um
6:13 if when I can see what's actually
6:15 happening, right? So we enter right
6:16 here, place my stop loss below this kind
6:19 of tiny structure point here and then
6:20 you can see immediately we get straight
6:22 into profit and we push up quite
6:24 aggressively. Right? Hence obviously
6:25 following this but obviously the
6:27 opposite because gold is the secondary
6:30 currency, right? So uh this green line
6:32 here represents my take uh my partial
6:33 takeprofit. Right? So if you can see
6:35 here um uh this is called a pivot point.
6:36 I don't know if I've mentioned this in
6:38 some of my other videos. Basically this
6:39 is an indicator I use. It's called pivot
6:41 points. Um you can see here we hit at
6:43 1140. We hit this pivot point. Again,
6:44 I'm not expecting this aggressive
6:46 weakness to last forever. So, I want to
6:48 kind of capitalize on it as much as I
6:49 can and then and then take take some
6:50 profits, right? So, you can see here
6:52 1140, we do hit this pivot point. And
6:55 that is exactly at 1140 here when I do
6:57 decide to take some partials. Okay? So,
6:59 I take my partials. Once we kind of
7:01 range a bit, once we break this high
7:03 again over here, I'm moving my stop loss
7:04 below this low and I'm basically letting
7:07 that those partials run. And you can see
7:09 they're running quite nicely right now.
7:10 Right. So, if I come over to silver, we
7:13 have kind of a similar story. Um again
7:14 got in this trade a little bit later I
7:16 entered on gold first then on silver um
7:20 we can see here at 11 1110 11:15 entered
7:22 here moved straight into profit stop
7:23 loss below this structure point right
7:26 here again at 1140 and see this kind of
7:29 wick of a candle up here hitting this um
7:31 hitting this uh pivot point taking
7:33 partial I didn't take as heavy of
7:36 partials on gold uh on on silver as I
7:37 did gold right so I wanted to leave a
7:39 little bit more um yeah a little bit
7:40 more on the table to see what what
7:42 silver could do because I did take quite
7:44 a big chunk out on gold. Also, um
7:46 actually I'll mention here if you watch
7:47 one of my previous videos when I'm
7:48 talking about geopolitical tensions,
7:49 this is a trade that I I I think I broke
7:51 down. Yep. Um explaining here and I'm
7:53 actually still holding both of these up
7:54 here, right? Letting them run.
7:56 Obviously, I've taken partials, but I'm
7:57 letting those runners run. So, we can
7:59 see here on silver, this trade is going
8:02 absolutely fantastic. Um we can see we
8:04 pushed up as we broke this high again,
8:06 moving my stop loss below this structure
8:08 point right here, and I'm letting that
8:10 ride. Okay. Um I am still holding both
8:11 of these. Obviously, I don't have that
8:13 much on gold anymore. But I do have a
8:16 decent position on um on silver. There
8:17 were obviously quite a few things that
8:19 have been happening on the past few days
8:20 through throughout all this kind of um
8:22 ranging and you know, all this kind of
8:25 price action. Um so I'm not sure what's
8:26 going to happen yet. Obviously, we got
8:28 to keep our eyes peeled. Um um yeah, I
8:30 could close this, you know, in a few
8:31 hours, close this in a few days. I don't
8:32 know when. Obviously have to keep
8:34 updated with what's happening. But um
8:36 yeah, so I hope this video was helpful.
8:37 Hope you found this educational. Hope
8:39 this was yeah, informative. And I'll see
