The core theme revolves around the transformative impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and exponential technologies on society, predicting a future where material scarcity is overcome, traditional economic models become obsolete, and human lifespans are significantly extended.
Mind Map
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คลิกเพื่อสำรวจ Mind Map แบบอินเตอร์แอคทีฟฉบับเต็ม
Yeah. Um well, one like side
recommendation I have is like don't
worry about like squirreling money away
for uh retirement in like 10 or 20
years. It won't matter.
>> You are you are personally. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> It's always assistant says
>> we're going back to the theme of this
talk. How can AI and exponential tech
save America and the world? Don't you
think that? But I want I want to get I
want to hit this because we talked
>> I was like quite pessimistic about it
and and and ultimately I decided to be
fatalistic and and
>> I've got to see you look on the bright
side of [laughter] life.
>> You're sitting down.
>> We're crucified [laughter]
right side.
>> But this is not about taxation and redistribution.
redistribution.
>> Yeah. No, it's um
>> So, how do how does it work? Reason
through it with me.
>> Listen, by the way, I'm open to ideas here,
here, >> okay?
>> okay?
>> Uh so, it's not like I got this all
figured out.
>> All right. So, so I'm wondering if
instead of universal high income, if
it's universal, universal high stuff. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> And services. >> Yes.
>> Yes.
>> The UHSS. We got to
>> like I I guess okay this is my guess for
how things
>> roll out
>> play out and I I and by the way I'm this
is this is going to be a bumpy ride and
it's not like I know the answers here.
Um but I I I have decided to look on the
bright side u and and I'd like to thank
thank you guys for being an inspiration
in this regard.
>> Thank you.
>> Happy to help. Yeah, [laughter]
because I I actually think it's it it is
better to be a an optimist and wrong
than a pessimist and right.
>> Yes, for sure.
>> Um for quality of life.
>> Yeah. And by the way, there's also not a
force of nature. It's under like to me
it's really clear that we don't have any
system right now to make this go well.
But AI is a critical part of making it
go well. And at some point, Grock is
going to be addressing this exact topic
that we're talking about or it has to be
one of the big four AI
machines. I mean, it's coming dealing
with it. There's no velocity knob,
right? There's no onoff switch. It is
coming and accelerating.
>> I call AI and robotics the supersonic tsunami.
tsunami. >> Yes.
>> Yes.
>> Which maybe is a little alarming.
>> It's good. It's [laughter] good. Oh,
because they just like wake up call.
>> This is important for folks to to gro
because um uh I don't want to leave
people depressed. I want people to
understand what's coming. So, we're
we're basically demonetizing
everything. I mean, labor becomes the
cost of capex and electricity. AI is
basically uh intelligence available uh
>> at a dimminimous price. Um
uh so you're able to produce almost
anything. Things get down to basic costs
of materials and electricity, right? Uh
so people can have whatever stuff they
want, whatever services they need.
>> Um it's not when when we say universal
high income, it sounds like it's a tax
and redistribute, but that's not the case.
case. Um
Um
>> it's it's I think my my best guess for
how this will manifest is that prices
will become prices will drop. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> So as the efficiency of of production or
the provision of services drops um
prices will drop. I mean you know prices
in in dollar terms are the ratio between
the output of goods and services and the
money supply.
>> Sure. So if your output of goods and
services increases faster than the money
supply, you will have deflation and or
vice versa, you know. So um
>> it's a good thing we're growing the
money supply so quickly then,
>> right? [laughter]
>> I I I Yes. That's why I I I came like
let's not worry about growing the money
supply. It won't matter because the
output of goods and services actually
will grow faster than the money supply.
And I think we'll be in this and this is
a prediction I think some others have
made but um I will add to it which is uh
that that I think governments will will
actually be pushing to to increase money
supply um like like faster.
>> Yes. They won't be able to waste the
money fast enough [laughter]
which is saying something for
>> Isn't it isn't it crazy how close those
timelines just randomly worked out? I
mean at the rate because we're expanding
the national debt not because we're
anticipating AI. We were going to do
that no matter what.
>> And so it's like right on the edge of
becoming Argentina.
>> But yeah,
productivity. So productivity is going
to improve dramatically.
>> Um and it is improving dramatically. I I
I think we'll see.
>> I think I think we may see
like high double digit uh output of
goods and services. We have to be a
little careful about how economists
measure things
and um >> yeah
>> yeah
[laughter] it's it I mean there's like
my favorite joke I have a few economist
jokes that I that that I like but um
maybe my favorite one economist joke is
um two economists are going for a walk
in in the forest um and they come across
a pile of and one economist says
I'll pay you 100 bucks to eat a pile of [laughter]
I've heard this one. This is great. Go ahead.
ahead.
>> And so the guy takes 100 bucks
>> Then they keep walking. They come across
another pile of And and the other
guy says, "Okay, I'll give you a hundred
So he gives them a hundred bucks and and
then the the guys can say, "Wait a second.
second.
>> We both have the same amount of money. [laughter]
We ate a both ate a pile of Oh my
god. It sounds like
>> but we increase the economy by $200. [laughter]
[laughter]
>> This is the kind of you get in
economics. So, so uh but if you if so if
you say like just the output of goods
and services um
the will be much greater you just need a
so profitability of companies go through
the roof
>> at some point but but no but so the
question becomes is that taxed by the government
government
>> is that then taxed by the government and
redistributed as some level of income as
a U as a UHI or UBI in other words um
one of the questions is if in fact this
future we hit massive productivity uh
and massive profitability because we're
dividing by zero. The cost of labor has
gone to nothing. The cost of
intelligence has gone to nothing and
we're still producing products and
services faster and faster. So there's
more profitability. Someone needs to be
buying it and someone needs to be able
to have the capital to buy it. Um
I mean this is an important question to
get to get thought through.
>> Yeah. Um, well, one like side
recommendation I have is like don't
worry about like squirreling money away
for uh retirement in like 10 or 20
years. It won't matter. >> No.
>> No. >> Okay.
>> Okay.
>> Either either we're not going to be here or
or
>> it it just uh like it's it's you you
won't need to save for retirement. If if
any of the things that we've said are
true, saving for retirement will be irrelevant.
irrelevant.
>> The services will be there to support
you. You'll have the home. You'll have
the healthcare. You'll have the entertainment.
entertainment.
>> The way this unfolds is fundamentally
impossible to predict because of
self-improvement of the AI and the
accelerating timeline.
>> Yeah. It's called singularity for a reason.
reason.
>> Yeah. Exactly.
>> I don't know what goes happen what what
happens after when after the event horizon.
horizon.
>> Exactly. You can't never see past the
black hole or the event horizon. The
light going Ray has a singularity out
way too far. I mean, this is like the next
next
>> what what's your timeline for for this?
>> We're in the singularity.
>> Well, we are in the singularity for
sure. We're in the midst of it right now
for sure.
>> And we just we're in this beautiful
sweet spot which is you know the
>> we're the roller coaster. We're just
>> Yeah, exactly. That's a [laughter] great
analogy. It's like that feeling.
>> You're at the top of the roller coaster
and you're about to go.
>> Yeah. But you know it's going to be a
lot of G's when you when you hit it.
>> Uh and it's like pure like I don't have
just have courtsiz seats. I'm on the court.
court.
>> Exactly. And it blows my And still blows
my mind
>> sometimes multiple times a week. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> Um and so
>> just when I think I'm like
wow. And then it's like two days later
more wow. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah. >> Um
>> Um
>> exponential wow.
>> Yeah. I think we'll hit um AGI next year
in 26.
>> Yeah, I heard you say that.
>> Yeah, I've said that for a while
actually. And then you know and then you
said by 2029 2030 equivalent to the
entire human race. 2030 we exceed like
I'm confident by 2030
um AI will exceed the intelligence of
all humans combined
>> and that's way pessimistic if if you hit
AGI next year and that's that's you know
that date is is in flux but from that
date to self-improvements that are on
the order of a th00and 10,000x just
algorithmic improvements is very short
>> and so everybody why isn't everybody
talking about this right now
>> well I mean on on the on our next day off.
off.
>> Yes. But why isn't that
>> every day basically?
>> Yeah. But it's
>> don't stop. [laughter]
>> It's not.
>> Okay. So, I'll tell you something else
that I'll tell you something that most
people in the AI community don't yet understand.
understand. >> Okay.
>> Okay.
>> Um which is there the almost no one
understands this. Um the intelligence
density potential uh is vastly greater
than what we're currently experiencing.
So I I think we're we're off by tours of
magnitude in terms of the intelligence
density per gigabyte
>> of what what's achievable. >> Yes.
>> Yes.
>> Per gawatt of energy
>> per I'm by file size.
>> Okay. If the file size of the AI if you
>> if you have a say get intelligence for
>> okay in know yes sir >> um
>> um
>> on your on your laptop power two but
parameters the same thing whatever. Um
>> so it does
>> two two orders of magnitude.
>> Yes. Yeah.
>> And you like you said you ringside
courtside seat you would know.
>> I'd say it's it's it's uh to Yes. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> Tours of magnitude improvement in um
that's just just algorithmic
improvement. Same computer and the
computers are getting better. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah. >> So
>> So
>> and bigger you know they're getting
better and the budgets are getting
bigger. So that's why I think I think
it's it is on
>> it is like a
>> 10x improvement per year type thing,000%.
thing,000%. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> And that and that's going to happen for Yeah.
Yeah.
for the foreseeable future. So you see
the massive underreaction like if you
walk downtown Austin the massive I mean
it may be under discussion in X but it's
not percolating at all.
>> Well it's not it's not discussion in any
realm of government. Everybody is like
defending their position about where we
are and jobs and this but
>> it's it's like we're heading towards a
>> a super supersonic tsunami and and uh uh
I mean every every you know every major
CEO and economist and government leader
should be like what do we do because
once it hits
>> well that it's coming at the exact same
time there no matter what there's no
there's no concept of let's deliberately
slow down, right?
>> No, it's impossible.
>> It's impossible at this stage.
>> I mean, I I' I'd previously advised that
we slow it down, but that was po that uh
that's pointless. Like I I like you can't
can't
be going to it, but too fast, guys. Um
I've said that many years and and I was
like okay then I finally came to the
conclusion I can either be a spectator
or a participant but I can't stop it.
>> So at least if I'm a participant I can
try to steer it in a good direction.
>> Um and uh like my number one belief for
safety of AI is to be maximally truth
seeeking. So um that don't make AI
believe things that are false. Like if
you say if you if you say to the AI that
axiom A and a B are both true but
they're but they cannot be but but
they're not. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> Um and it has to but it must behave that
way. Um you will make it go insane. So
what I'm saying is
don't force AI to lie. This is
>> give it factual truth problem. Yes. Ilia
recently did a podcast. He was talking
about one of the potential things to
program into AI is is a respect for
sentient life of all types. Um,
>> yes. Yes.
>> I mean,
>> so I'd say another property. >> Yes.
>> Yes.
>> I mean, there are three things that I
think are important. Um,
truth, curiosity, and beauty.
>> Mhm. And if AI cares about those three
things, uh, it will care about us.
>> On which part?
>> Truth will prevent AI from going insane. >> Mhm.
>> Mhm.
>> Curiosity, I think, will foster
uh any form of sentience. Meaning like
we're more interesting than a bunch of rocks.
rocks. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> So if it has if it's curious,
then I think it will foster humanity.
Um, and if it has a sense of beauty,
um, it will be a great future.
>> I think that's a great foundation.
>> Yeah. Jeffrey Hinton made a comment
recently. I don't know if you saw it,
that his his hopeful future was that we
would program maternal instincts into
our AIS to
>> see us maternal.
>> Yeah. In other words,
>> you haven't heard that. You haven't
heard this? [laughter] Yeah.
>> So, he said a little scary. He said
there's a there's a there's a scenario
where a very intelligent being succumbs
to the needs of a less intelligent being
and that's the mother taking care of the child.
child.
Do you think that we might have a uh
singletarian uh like a ai that uh that
achieves dominance and suppresses
others? And do you imagine that that ASI
could be a means to stabilize
the world in humanity? >> Darwin's
>> Darwin's
observations about evolution, >> yes,
>> yes,
>> will apply to AI
>> just as they apply to biological life.
>> They will compete with each other. >> Yes,
>> Yes,
>> there's a lot of great science fiction
books where the first ASI basically
suppresses the others. Um then the
question is what do you program into it
you know so don't go into medical school
>> yes pointless
>> I mean unless you but I would say that
applies to any form of education is [laughter]
[laughter]
there's a shortage of doctors and and
and and great surgeons you're a doctor
yourself you know how that it takes a
long time for a human to become
>> it's ridiculously expensive and long
>> ridiculously yes ridiculous a super long
time to learn to be a good doctor. Um
and and even then the the knowledge is
constantly evolving. It's hard to keep
up with everything. Uh you know doctors
have limited time. They make mistakes.
Um and you say like how many how many
great surgeons are there? Not not that
many great surgeons.
>> When do you think optimist would be a
better surgeon than the best surgeons?
How long for that?
>> Three years.
>> Three years. Okay. Yeah. And by the way,
three years at at scale.
>> Yes. All
>> more there probably be more Optimus
robots that are great surgeons than
there are sure
>> all surgeons on Earth.
>> And the cost of that is the capex and
electricity and it works in Zimbabwe.
The best surgeon is throughout in
villages throughout Africa or any place
on the planet.
>> Yeah. Where do you think it'll roll out
first? Not the US obviously. >> Um
>> Um
>> here at at the uh Gigafactory. Oh yeah,
just do surgery in the [laughter] >> um
>> um
>> but that's an important statement in
three years time. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> Um because medicine I mean
>> like absolutely something could
be if it's four or five years who cares.
That's still an incredible
statement to make. I mean good for
humanity, right? All of a sudden you
demonetize. Okay, here's the thing to
understand about like like humanoid
robots in terms of the rate of
improvement um which is is that the um
you you have um three exponentials
multiplied by each other. You have an
exponential increase in the AI software capability.
capability. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> Exponential increase in the AI chip capability
capability
>> um and an exponential increase in the
electromechanical dexterity.
The usefulness of the humanoid robot is
it's those three things multiplied by
each other, >> right?
>> right?
>> Um then you have the recursive effect of
Optimus building Optimus,
>> right? And then you have the shared
>> you have a recursive multiplicable
triple exponential
>> and you have the shared knowledge of all
all the experiences.
>> Is that literally Optimus building
Optimus or is it because you know the
>> well not right now but will be the the
physical humanoid form factor building
the humanoid form as opposed to
>> Bono machine.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I love that.
>> But the Foy machine is usually something
kind of like this shape. You know,
making something else. In principle,
it's simply a self-replicating thing. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> Elon, do you know what the number one
question you ask a surgeon when you're
interviewing them? >> Uh,
[laughter]
is this is this a surgeon joke?
>> No. It's how many It's How many times do
you How many times do you do that? [laughter]
[laughter]
>> There's got to be some funny
>> funny search.
[laughter] No, it's serious. It's it's
it's how many times did you do the
surgery this morning? >> Sorry.
>> Sorry.
>> How many times did you do the surgery
this morning or yesterday? It's the it's
the number of experiences, right? And so
with a shared memory,
>> um you know, every optimist surgeon will
have seen every possible pertabbation of
everything in infrared, in ultraviolet.
No, not too much caffeine that morning.
They didn't have a a fight with their
husband or wife. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> Extreme precision. Yes. Three years. >> Um,
>> Um,
>> yes. Better than any any probably I'd
say if you like put a little margin on
it. Better than any human in four years
>> who's in plastic surgery
>> by five years. It's not even close.
>> So what what about the simple like just
I mean there's a million of these things
to figure out. But who's going to have
access to the first Optimus that does
far far better micro surgery than any
surgeon on Earth? But you've only
manufactured the first 10,000 of them.
>> How do you do that? I don't think people
understand how many robots there's going
to be. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> Well, there's a window said 10 billion
by 2040.
>> You still on that path?
>> Uh that's not that's a low number.
>> A low number. >> Wow.
>> Wow.
>> What's the constraint? What's the uh cuz
if they're self-building, you know,
>> metal, the constraint is metal.
>> Yeah. Or lithium or
>> Yeah. You got to move the atoms. Um
>> it's just all just supply chain stuff.
>> So, but you're you're there's some right
limit. You can't just manufacturing is
very difficult. So you got you got to
>> you you you it's it's recursive
multiplicable triple exponential but but
you still need to you still you still
have to climb that you know
>> selling hope once again I I think your
point was medicine is going to be
effectively free the best medicine in
the world.
>> Everyone will have access to medical
care that is better than what the
president receives right now.
>> So don't go to medical school. Yes. Pointless.
Pointless. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> I mean, unless you But I would say that
applies to any form of education is [laughter]
[laughter]
>> No, I mean like South Korea's like uh
Yeah. One third replacement rate. >> Crazy.
>> Crazy.
>> Yeah. So, three generations they're
going to be 127th. So, three 3% of their
current size. I mean, North Korea won't
need to invade. They could just walk across.
across.
>> This is going to be some people in [laughter]
[laughter]
You know, walkers or something
is a real, [laughter]
you know, it's like one of the one of
the signs that a country [laughter]
is not on the right path
>> is when the adult diapers exceed the
baby diapers.
>> Yeah, we're there. [laughter]
>> Yeah. South Korea will be there.
>> They already No, they passed that point.
>> They passed that point.
>> They passed that point many years ago.
Japan passed the point many years ago.
>> Doesn't go well looking at the Japanese
economy. No, I mean like South Korea's
like uh Yeah. One [clears throat] third
replacement rate.
>> Isn't that crazy?
>> Yeah. So, three generations they're
going to be 127th. So, 3 3% of their
current size. I mean, North Korea won't
need to invade. They could just walk across.
across.
this going to be some people in [laughter]
[laughter]
>> you know walkers or something like
>> but you you know you've been very verbal
about the you know the not
overpopulation but massive underpopulation
underpopulation
>> yeah for ages
>> yeah longevity is going to be an
important part of that solution I also
think by the way if you increased the
productive life of most Americans by
just a few years you'd flip the entire
economics here >> well
>> well
>> if they were willing to AI and robots is
going to make everything >> sure
>> sure
>> free basically. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah. >> Um
>> Um
>> but uh well how long would you want to live?
live?
>> Uh I want to I want to go you know other
planetary systems. I want to go and
explore the universe. Yeah. I mean you
know I would like to double my lifespan
for sure.
>> I don't want you know I'm not sure I
want to talk about immortality but
>> you know at least 120 150. It's a long time.
time.
>> One of the worst curses possible would
be that
>> Yes. May you live forever. May you live forever.
