The content analyzes how three different entities – Venezuela, Taiwan, and China – respond to pressure from the United States, highlighting contrasting strategies and their resulting implications for national sovereignty, economic independence, and technological development.
Mind Map
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Friends
Today let's talk about something particularly magical
It is also facing pressure from the United States
Guess what?
Three countries, three ways of living
Some even knelt down directly
Some are being boiled in warm water
Some even dared to say no
What's the logic behind this
Let's look at them one by one
Let's start with the matter of Venezuela
Maduro has been arrested
Venezuela has completely changed
Both the opposition and the interim government were dominated by women
These people are trying to please Trump
Did that really resort to all kinds of tricks
Machado visited the United States
Guess what gift she brought
Nobel Peace Prize
right
She took her Nobel Prize with her
It was said that it would be donated to Trump
The Nobel Committee panicked immediately upon hearing about this matter
Come out quickly and say no, no
But does Machado care so much
Her exact words were
Trump is the savior of Venezuela
This Nobel Prize is not only deserved by Trump
It is also a testament to the friendship between the United States and Venezuela
Don't you think this operation is despicable enough
The Nobel Prize is so blatantly given as a gift
It's really rare
Machado has gone all out here, hasn't he
Interim President Rodriguez took a look
Can't fall behind
Immediately speed up and be obedient
She proposed the reform of the oil and gas law at the speed of light
Open Venezuela
Undeveloped new oil fields are given to American capital
Just short of Shouting "Come and sleep with me
Not only that
She also delivered multiple batches of crude oil to the United States
Assist Trump
The first oil transaction worth 500 million US dollars was completed
After this series of operations
Originally, it was planned to target Venezuela
Trump immediately called off the additional military operation
What do you think?
Everything has been taken care of so comfortably
What else are you fighting for
When the Soviet Union disintegrated
Not a single one of them was a man
Even the Soviet Union was like this
A small country like Venezuela knelt down and kowtowed
So there's nothing strange about it
What can be used to challenge the United States
What else can be done besides improving the quality of service
So you see
Why are all big and small countries equal
Sometimes it's really self-deception.
To be honest
Maduro was not saved
It was still quite a misstep
Venezuela is kneeling down completely
Let's switch the camera to China again
The style is completely different
Nvidia's Jensen Huang has been having a hard time recently
Why do you feel so bad?
Because he thought that as long as Trump was dealt with
Opening up the Chinese market is a natural outcome
Trump did indeed give the green light
Agree to export H200 to China
But it comes with a bunch of conditions
For example, exports to China
It cannot exceed 50% of the total sales to American customers
It also needs to undergo technical review by a third-party laboratory
On the surface
The US must have given the green light, right
But China simply doesn't appreciate it
Insiders disclosed
The Chinese customs has orally conveyed instructions to the customs declaration agent
H200 is temporarily not allowed to enter the country
This is not a public ban
But it is at the practical operation level
All customs clearance processes have been quietly frozen
Why not?
The core concern of the Chinese side lies in security
The third-party technical review compulsorily required by the US side
Why was it interpreted by the Chinese side
A potential monitoring mechanism
This kind of review might involve remote tracking for chip implantation
Even a fuse backdoor was implanted
It becomes a time bomb at critical moments
The H20 chip built-in tracker incident that was exposed last year
It has long sounded the alarm in China's scientific and technological community
What's even more ruthless
Trump signed an executive order on January 14th
A 25% import tariff will be imposed on products containing NVIDIA H200
It came into effect on January 15th
To put it bluntly
This is the disguised tariff tool meticulously designed by the United States
It's mainly aimed at China
Facing this trick of the United States
Will China accept it
Of course not.
Apart from the tricks played by the US government
Nvidia itself also misjudged China's attitude
They go to Chinese customers
It put forward almost harsh transaction terms
Full payment must be made in advance
Once the order is confirmed
No refund at all
Non-cancellable
What does this mean?
All political and compliance risks shall be borne entirely by the buyer
Which rational Chinese enterprise would dare to sign such a contract of indenture
In this case
The competent authorities of China
Quickly convene a meeting of large technology companies
It conveyed a clear signal
Do not purchase unless necessary
What does "not necessary" mean
In fact, it's just not about purchasing
Why?
Because in the view of the competent authorities
Is there almost nothing that is truly necessary
Commercial interests are especially not
What is truly necessary
National strategic security
Since there are potential safety hazards
Then there would be no room for maneuver at all
This statement is quite clear, isn't it
China is no longer that
A market that passively accepts any conditions
China has successively banned NVIDIA H20
The H200 chip has entered China
It made Huang Renxun quite embarrassed
He always thought
As long as you open Trump's heart, all your wishes will come true
But unexpectedly
The Chinese side might be even more difficult to win over than Trump
This dramatic twist
What does it reveal as the core crux of the current relationship between China and the United States
Trust deficit
It also presents a fact
The balance of power between China and the United States is no longer one-sided
Whether to buy or sell is not decided by one party
You can sell or you can't
I can buy it or not
Let's all think about it
In contrast to the United States' inability to retaliate against rare earths
China still has options in high-end chips
China wants to give way to the United States
And the whole world understands one truth
There were some things you didn't sell to me at that time
There might never be another chance to sell it to me
And once I choose not to buy
In most cases, "Made in China" will emerge rapidly
Then it's not just about not selling to me
But even if you want to sell it, you may not be able to do so
The arrival of the H200 might have missed the best opportunity
During the two years when Nvidia was absent due to the ban
China's AI chip industry has not come to a standstill
Huawei Ascend
Local brands such as Cambricon quickly filled the gap
The performance of some products has already been on par with that of the H20
Even if the H200 can eventually enter
The role it plays is more like that of a catfish
It is used to stimulate the competitive vitality of the domestic market
Rather than a savior who will once again dominate the market landscape
Huang Renxun once warned
If the United States continues its lockdown
China will win the AI race by its own strength
Now his prediction is accelerating its realization
It's easy for Trump to bully small Latin American countries
Wanting to give China a cold shoulder
It's not so easy anymore
Chips cannot pry open China's door
The tariff negotiations between the United States and Taiwan will thus have to be expedited
Next, let's talk about Taiwan
This is even more subtle
January 16
Taiwan and the United States have reached a number of key consensuses
The equivalent tariff has been reduced to 15%
And it does not add the most favorable treatment
On the surface
This must be a victory for Taiwan, right
After all, Taiwan got it
The most favorable ally treatment among the major deficit countries of the United States
With Japan
The level of South Korea and the European Union is on par
It also became the first in the world to secure it
The trading partners with the most favorable tariff treatment under Section 232 on semiconductors
Doesn't it sound quite impressive
But if you take a close look at the conditions behind it, you will know
How could this be a discount
It is clearly draining Taiwan
Taiwan is required to participate in US investment with two types of capital commitments
The first category is independent investment by Taiwanese enterprises
What is the total amount?
250 billion US dollars
The second category?
By the Taiwan government in the form of credit guarantee
Support financial institutions
Provide a maximum credit line of 250 billion US dollars
How much does it add up?
500 billion US dollars
In return
TSMC is going to increase its investment in Arizona, the United States
At least five new wafer fabrication plants will be added
Now, the Taiwan authorities and the media
Just focus on the figure of 15%
But not a word was mentioned about the investment commitment
On the surface
Taiwan seems to be favored by the United States alone
In fact,
Taiwan has gradually been emptied out
To become the United States in exchange
A tool for exerting pressure
For the United States
15% is not merely a concession
But it is a kind of design
Use tariffs as an entry point
Promote the implementation of advanced manufacturing
Rearrangement of the supply chain
For Taiwan
15% is not a free lunch either
Rather, it is about the most crucial industrial chips
Bet into the rule framework dominated by the United States
What will the future be like?
When more advanced manufacturing processes
The packaging and R&D processes are fixed in the United States
Taiwanese enterprises are no longer just investing overseas
Instead, it is further embedded in the regulations of the United States
Amid the review and policy pace
It is only a matter of time before TSMC becomes American Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
To put it bluntly
The United States is making dual preparations
On the one hand, it provides blood transfusion to Taiwan
Strengthen Taiwan's anti-China capabilities
On the other hand, transfer valuable assets in Taiwan
Be fully prepared for the physical loss of Taiwan
Do you think this calculation is shrewd or not
It made an investment of 550 billion US dollars from Japan
From South Korea, 350 billion US dollars
This time, Taiwan has once again allocated 500 billion US dollars
In East Asia, it's all Trump
It has contributed an investment intention of 1.4 trillion US dollars
Seriously
The matter of making money
Trump is still quite an expert
Now let's talk about these three stories
Put them together for comparison
Venezuela has chosen to submit completely
"Dignity
All resources were given away
What was gained was temporary security
But what is lost is long-term independence
What about Taiwan?
It seems that a discount has been obtained at the negotiating table
In fact, the frog is being boiled in warm water
Industries are gradually being transferred
By the time you realize it, it might be too late
Only China chose to say no
Is there any confidence in saying "no"
Why do you have the confidence
Because there is industrial support behind it
Have technical accumulation
There is a market scale
The United States wants to strangle the country with chips
China is accelerating its independent research and development
You won't sell it to me
I'll make it myself
When I make it
You may not even be able to sell it if you want to
What do these three choices reflect behind them
It's a gap in strength
It's about the superiority or inferiority of the strategy
It is different judgments about the future
Venezuela has lost Maduro
After this leader who dared to confront
The entire country lost its backbone
Without support
Of course, one can only kneel down.
Taiwan was not aware of it
Or rather, they are reluctant to admit it
I'm being used as a pawn
Superficial discounts cannot hide the essence of industrial hollowing out
China's choice seems tough
In fact, it is the most rational
In the matter of technological competition
If you keep compromising
The other party will only be insatiable
Only by daring to say no
Only in this way can one earn respect
And to say no is not to act rashly
Instead, it is a confident refusal
This confidence comes from Huawei
From the Cambrian period
The efforts from countless Chinese technology enterprises
So you see
Facing the same pressure from the United States
Different choices lead to completely different results
Strength determines the right to speak.
Choices determine destiny.
You can choose to kneel down
It can also be boiled in warm water
But if you have the ability
You can definitely choose to make money while standing
Friends
After reading about the different fates of these three countries
What do you think
Welcome to share your opinions in the comment section
