0:02 [music]
0:04 Welcome back to Wilson Weekly on the
0:06 Money Mentor podcast, where data meets
0:08 drama and the property market never
0:10 sleeps, even if some of us are begging
0:13 for it to. We've got rates holding,
0:15 rents shifting, and auctions starting to
0:17 ease as expected as we head into the
0:19 Christmas break. And of course, we've
0:22 got Doc here to translate the chaos into
0:24 something we can all understand. Hello
0:25 again, Doc. What do you have for us this week?
0:26 week?
0:28 >> Yeah, good day, Rachel. And as you said,
0:29 we're just about all over it, aren't we
0:31 not? It's been a big year. It's been a
0:34 big spring. It's been a big December,
0:36 even though we're one week into it.
0:38 We've got one more show for the year.
0:40 So, look forward to that one. And we'll
0:43 have also a year that was uh show coming
0:44 through at some stage. So, look out for
0:47 that one. But, uh one more week of uh
0:50 activity, but um this is the first week
0:53 in December and uh we are winding down.
0:55 Uh I guess all the buying and selling's
0:56 just about been done. Although still
0:59 some good numbers coming through in the
1:01 uh in the weekend auction market or the
1:03 weekly auction markets. Uh and of course
1:05 as we'll find out today, there's been a
1:07 bit of action around with the Reserve
1:10 Bank meeting uh in December just uh a
1:14 couple of days ago. So unex not
1:16 unexpected result on hold, but we'll
1:19 look into the tea leaves in terms of uh
1:21 that particular result. So, every week
1:23 Rachel and I bring you the uh the Wilson
1:26 Weekly with uh in conjunction with my
1:27 housing market and the good folks at
1:29 Infiniti. Um and we're all about the
1:31 current state and future prospects of
1:34 your housing market. Clickbait bait free
1:35 zone here. We're all about
1:37 evidence-based insights into the housing
1:40 market as in real time as we can get it
1:42 so you can make informed decisions. And
1:44 we all want to make informed decisions
1:46 if we are engaged in buying and selling
1:48 in property because it's a big ask for
1:52 most of us. Is it not Rachel? So, uh,
1:54 let's get going. Uh, it is the week
1:57 ending Wednesday, December 10th, first
2:00 full week of, uh, December. Uh, I can
2:01 just about hear the bells on those
2:05 reindeer. Can you not, Rachel? Uh,
2:07 imminent. Hope you've done your shopping
2:09 or you're going to be facing big crowds
2:10 there in the next You haven't done it.
2:12 Oh, well, get used. Get ready for the
2:14 crush. Uh,
2:16 >> property market's keeping me too busy.
2:18 >> Well, that's good, I guess. But it's
2:20 been a busy year and it's still been a
2:22 busy last week as we'll see. So yeah,
2:25 interest rates the uh November that
2:27 should be the December interest rate
2:30 policy decision of course. Uh it looks
2:32 like the holiday mood has got to me as
2:34 well. But yeah, we'll scrub that one out
2:36 for the update. But yeah, the December
2:39 interest rate decision, November home
2:40 rents, and that's going to be there's
2:42 some very interesting data there,
2:44 Rachel. Are we starting to see a
2:46 breakout in rents again? Uh I think
2:47 maybe we are. We've been sort of
2:49 predicting that with these low vacancy
2:51 rates we've had consistently for as long
2:53 back as we can remember just about now.
2:55 And uh maybe signs that those low
2:57 vacancy rates are finally starting to
2:59 push rents upwards. Not good news for
3:01 tenants but I guess it's good news for
3:03 landlords out there and as usual the
3:05 weekly auction results and as you said
3:08 Rachel uh certainly signs not unexpected
3:11 of uh just uh our markets becoming a
3:14 little tired as we're now within a week
3:16 of the end of the season. So let's have
3:19 a look. The RBA rates steady again over
3:21 December. Four months in a row now with
3:22 a steady rate. Even though it sounds
3:24 like, oh well, everything's cool and
3:25 everything's, you know, just sort of as
3:28 we expected. It's not really because uh
3:30 there has been a key change in a lot of
3:32 the narrative behind interest rate
3:36 decision. Um, in fact, I I guess my my
3:39 uh takeaway is it's becoming a a lot
3:41 less certain in terms of what the
3:43 Reserve Bank uh is now expecting from
3:47 the key drivers. And uh really in a
3:48 sense, the Reserve Bank's sort of having
3:51 a bob each way in terms of what the uh
3:53 what the prospects for interest rates
3:55 are going forward and for the main
3:57 drivers, which of course is inflation
3:59 and uh and the labor market
4:02 particularly. So, um I I think we're in
4:05 for a uh a protracted period of steady
4:06 rates, which is actually good news in a
4:10 way um going forward because it uh gives
4:12 us a bit more certainty in terms of
4:15 outcomes. But, uh never say never
4:17 because we do have still a lot of
4:19 potential volatility in those key
4:22 drivers. Um not just local economic
4:25 drivers but also international economic
4:27 drivers. So, let's have a look what the
4:29 Reserve Bank said. uh it left rates
4:32 steady at 3.6%
4:35 as Rachel and I mentioned that's now the
4:38 same result for the past four months for
4:40 decisions. Um and this is what the
4:42 Reserve Bank said and this is a couple
4:44 of snapshots from their commentary. The
4:45 board's judgment is that some of the
4:48 recent increase in underlying inflation
4:52 was due to temporary factors. Wow.
4:55 Really? uh you know question mark those
4:58 temporary factors temporary factors are
5:01 electricity prices and yes I guess it's
5:02 temporary because prices have been
5:05 pushed up as we ended as we said last
5:08 time when we speaking about inflation as
5:10 we ended the subsidies that the uh the
5:11 federal government generously gave us
5:15 all those $300 per year uh subsidies for
5:18 our electricity bills per household uh
5:21 they came to an end in June this year
5:24 and they were replaced by what you'd
5:27 call subsidy light which was uh half the
5:30 benefits from the uh original subsidy.
5:32 But of course when we moved into subsidy
5:35 light we no longer had the benefit of
5:37 the full subsidy. So we had to pay more
5:40 for electricity and as we saw with those
5:42 with the monthly inflation rate that was
5:46 released um that was released recently
5:48 uh and of course uh that was for
5:53 October. Uh it increased by 37%.
5:57 Yes 37% increase in electricity prices
5:58 over the year. And of course people are
5:59 there going well I know you're not
6:01 telling me anything mate. Seriously. Uh
6:03 I look at that electricity bill and I
6:04 think gee whiz what am I going to have
6:07 to save to uh to counter these rising
6:10 electricity prices. So yes it's
6:13 temporary because you know this the
6:16 subsidy light's going to finish at the
6:17 end of this year. So it's going to
6:19 finish this month. Now whether the
6:21 government replaces that uh with another
6:23 subsidy is problematic because this is a
6:26 obviously an issue for them um because
6:27 people aren't going to be terribly happy
6:30 with higher electricity prices. But the
6:33 point is that going forward uh you know
6:35 when we see the annual results once we
6:38 get past a year beyond this year
6:41 December uh we're not going to see that
6:44 comparison with the subsidy data right
6:46 or six months beyond we're going to you
6:48 know have the same old whatever the
6:50 price of electricity is without uh
6:52 countering either a subsidy or the lack
6:56 of a subsidy so that should start to
6:58 ease inflation. So I guess yes it's
7:01 temporary but um you know the point is
7:04 that prices would have risen to that
7:06 point and you still there's no
7:08 reductions coming through here. It's
7:10 just that we won't see electricity
7:12 rising by 37%
7:15 every year month by month. It'll be not
7:18 rising as much but it'll still be high.
7:20 And the point to all that is people have
7:25 to find a way to cover these increased
7:28 uh electricity costs particularly and
7:30 it's sort of the organic cost of
7:32 electricity that's still rising
7:34 irrespective of the support we've had
7:38 from uh those subsidies underlying in
7:40 electricity prices are still rising
7:42 because the transition from the carbon
7:45 economy to the renewables. a renewable
7:47 economy is taking longer and costing
7:50 more than originally hoped. Um so we are
7:53 going to continue to see higher organic
7:55 if you lot I mean if you know what I
7:57 mean underlying electricity prices. Now
8:00 the point to all that is uh we need to
8:02 sort of talking about temporary factors.
8:04 Yeah we can understand that but you know
8:05 I don't know what what are you paying
8:07 for a cup of coffee at the moment Rachel?
8:08 Rachel?
8:10 >> It's still seven or eight dollars.
8:13 >> Yeah. I mean, hello [laughter] Gosh.
8:14 >> And I mean, I think that's a it's like
8:16 there's a thing called the Big Mac
8:17 Index, which is used as a sort of a
8:20 comparison of the cost of goods between
8:22 nations. Now, this isn't the a
8:23 comparison of the cost of goods, but
8:25 this is sort of telling us on the ground
8:27 because Australians love their coffee,
8:28 Rachel. I know you love your coffee. I
8:30 love my coffee. Got to have two a day or
8:35 I can't function. Um but uh uh so I
8:38 think that's a good measure of uh just
8:41 sort of the way prices are moving. And
8:42 um I think also there's a lot of
8:45 electricity used is there not in brewing
8:47 a cup of coffee. The baristas I mean
8:49 it's right you know frothing and all
8:52 that sort of stuff. It's uh it's taken a
8:54 little bit of juice to do that. Um so
8:57 obviously they need to cover their costs
8:59 um just as we need to cover our
9:02 increased coffee costs. So what that
9:03 means is we start asking the boss for
9:06 more wages uh for higher wages. So the
9:08 boss then has to put up his prices or
9:11 her prices to cover the cost of higher
9:13 wages. You see where I'm getting at
9:15 here? So this sort of starts to get the
9:18 ball rolling for underlying inflation
9:20 down the track. So even though we might
9:23 get some sort of relief because of the
9:25 moving through the subsidy period from
9:28 those huge increases in electricity that
9:31 we've had over the past uh six months uh
9:33 it's not necessarily going to mean
9:36 relief from inflation going forward. Um
9:38 and the other problem we have is you
9:40 know we've we've done pretty well with
9:43 oil prices because they've continued to
9:45 fall but I don't know do you do you do
9:47 you buy a lot of petrol there Rachel? I
9:50 mean, I don't know. Uh, petrol prices
9:52 are still pretty high. I mean, the pump
9:55 price is still over two bucks in most
9:57 capital cities, and yet we've had this
9:59 big reduction in the price or of oil,
10:02 and yet we're still paying higher uh
10:04 higher petrol prices per liter than
10:07 you'd expect with a lower international
10:09 oil price. So, you see what I'm getting
10:11 at here? I I think we're still on a bit
10:13 of a you know hoping and a wishing and a
10:15 praying from the Reserve Bank that
10:18 inflation continues to be within their
10:20 target range which it's not at the
10:24 moment. Um so yeah they said that uh
10:26 some some of the recent increases in
10:28 underlying fla inflation was due to
10:29 temporary factors. Okay, we understand
10:32 that and but there is uncertainty about
10:35 how much signal data from the monthly
10:37 CPI. Now we've now moved into this
10:39 monthly CPI. We discussed this a couple
10:41 of weeks ago. We got the latest data.
10:42 It's it's a completely different
10:43 measure. So, in a way, you're sort of
10:45 you're blaming the umpire here. You
10:48 know, it's the the ABS, you know, who
10:49 gives you the measure saying, "Oh, well,
10:50 it's not our fault. Blame the me." And
10:53 there was some changes in the monthly
10:55 data set when it went to the what they
10:57 would call the full monthly data set.
10:59 I'm not sure why that had to be so
11:00 different, but it was. And it did show
11:02 higher inflation, but the Reserve Bank
11:03 saying, "Oh, well, don't blame us. Blame
11:05 the ABS or you know, because they've got
11:08 a different measuring process." Um but
11:10 it does say that nevertheless the data
11:13 does suggest that there is more broadly
11:16 based pickup in inflation. Uh part of
11:18 which may be persistent and will bear
11:20 close monitoring. So it's like oh it's
11:22 only temporary you know it's about the
11:24 measurement right don't worry and then
11:26 it says yeah but it might be persistent
11:28 and it might bear monitoring like yeah
11:30 really is this not a bob each way sort
11:32 of thing about uh what the outlook is.
11:35 So okay, I guess you know the Reserve
11:38 Bank's in a uh a sort of tough position
11:40 in a way because its predictions haven't
11:43 been uh certainly as um you know as
11:45 accurate as perhaps they'd like it to be
11:50 in terms of um the inflation rate and uh
11:52 you know they're now saying that they
11:54 hope to get inflation back within the
11:58 target range in 2027. Hello. What's the
12:02 what is what year is it now? It's 2025.
12:03 That's two years away. So,
12:06 >> so what do we all do in 2026? [laughter]
12:07 >> Yeah, but what can happen in the next
12:10 two years for goodness sake? It's only
12:12 nine months since we had Trump start his
12:15 uh you know his his tariff um you know
12:17 roller coaster ride. Um and that was
12:19 supposed to be the end of the world.
12:22 Just look back at and you know uh you
12:24 know tariff implications that stock
12:26 markets crashed when it happened. Of
12:28 course nothing's happened. Nothing has
12:31 happened you know. So, but we had, you
12:33 know, the the knee-jerk clickbait
12:35 reaction uh when it was announced. I'm
12:37 just saying these things can come along
12:39 out of left field, bang, bang, bang, and
12:41 then all bets are off. And and of
12:43 course, it's difficult for the Reserve
12:45 Bank to counter what can be, you know,
12:48 unpredictable outcomes from left field
12:51 in terms of their outlook. So, you know,
12:52 and as I said, they might say, "Oh,
12:54 well, by the middle of 2027, we should
12:56 be back to normal in terms of say
12:58 electricity prices." But what would have
13:00 happened perhaps in the in terms of oil
13:03 prices just an example and the latest
13:05 inflation data and we'll segue this into
13:06 the rent report which we're going to see
13:09 in just a second uh has shown rents are
13:12 rising not just uh my housing market
13:14 showing higher rents for units but uh
13:16 also the ABS has now had a couple of
13:18 months in a row of higher rents coming
13:21 through. We'll talk about that shortly.
13:24 So um you know a little bit of uh a
13:25 mixed message there in the first
13:27 statement and then of course put it all
13:28 together. The Reserve Bank said there
13:30 are uncertainties about the outlook for
13:32 the domestic for domestic econom
13:35 economic activity and inflation. Okay,
13:37 admit it you don't know. And the extent
13:39 to which monetary policy remains
13:41 restrictive well has it ever been
13:43 restrictive? I mean we've had a booming
13:45 housing market. We've had you know a
13:47 very strong labor market. We've had very
13:50 strong retail sales data. Tell me that
13:51 high interest rates have been
13:53 restrictive. You know, I mean, they're
13:55 just looking at the sort of historical
13:56 number and saying, well, if they're this
13:58 high historically, it means they're
13:59 restrict. But it hasn't been
14:02 restrictive, Rachel. So, um, you know,
14:04 it's kept things ticking over. Uh, and
14:06 now they're saying that there's a little
14:09 bit of uncertainty about uh whether
14:11 monetary policy remains restrictive. Of
14:13 course, it's not restrictive. Um but
14:15 anyway, at least they're admitting that
14:16 okay, it might not be restrictive
14:18 anymore. The recent data suggests that
14:20 the risk to inflation may be tilted to
14:23 the upside. So now they're saying, well,
14:25 the risks are now for higher inflation.
14:26 All right, but it will take a little
14:29 longer to assess the persistence of
14:31 inflationary pressures. Well, how long's
14:34 a little longer? So to me, this is like
14:36 really what are you saying here? You
14:39 know, is it black? Is it white? Is it
14:41 whatever? Left, is it right? I'm just
14:44 not sure here. Uh and let's face it,
14:46 neither are they. But look, as I said, I
14:48 think that the outcome for that,
14:50 notwithstanding anything that might come
14:53 from left field, you know, uh is that um
14:55 things will be on hold for a while. And
14:57 look, at the end of the day, you know,
15:00 hindsight's, you know, 2020, of course,
15:03 but um I think that we've had maybe one,
15:06 maybe even two interest rate cuts that
15:08 really don't reflect the data that we've
15:10 had and the outlook that the Reserve
15:12 Bank was telling us a few months ago.
15:14 So, let's enjoy that. We've certainly
15:16 had very strong uh prices growth. People
15:18 always embrace lower interest rates,
15:20 more money in your pocket with a lower
15:22 mortgage rate and higher prices for your
15:24 house, which helps your wealth effect.
15:26 So, uh, tick all those boxes and just
15:27 say, "Okay, well, it's good that we've
15:30 got a couple brought forward maybe, um,
15:32 and, uh, we'll take that and we'll take
15:33 the money and run, if you understand
15:36 what I mean, Rachel." So, there's our
15:39 chart. Uh, interest rates down and down
15:42 and down in the cycle until we got to
15:45 the COVID emergency measures where
15:46 official interest rates were just above
15:49 zero. Um and then of course the Reserve
15:51 Bank increased interest rates because
15:52 inflation went through the roof because
15:55 of those uh because of the stimulus
15:57 packages that were introduced to offset
16:00 the problems with COVID and lockdown. Uh
16:02 and then beginning last February, we got
16:04 an interest rate cut because Reserve
16:06 Bank had said that we were they were
16:07 happy with what was happening with
16:11 inflation. Yes. Um pregnant pause. And
16:14 uh then we had another another cut in
16:17 May and followed up in August. So, uh,
16:18 and now I think we're in for a period of
16:21 flat interest rates, um, notwithstanding
16:23 anything that can happen. And I think
16:26 even as inflation rises, uh, in the
16:28 shorter term, which is likely given
16:29 what's going to happen to electricity
16:32 prices post subsidy, uh, I don't think
16:36 that's any value in speculating about
16:39 higher interest rates, uh, as many will
16:42 because it's obviously a a pretty uh, a
16:44 pretty solid attention seeker going
16:47 forward. So that's the uh that's our
16:51 story Rachel on um on the latest uh
16:53 decision from the Reserve Bank and we
16:54 won't have another one till February.
16:57 >> Yeah. Well, we expected that they would
16:59 hold. So that's it's still rates at 3.6
17:01 for the fourth month straight. So no no
17:03 no surprises as you said but it's a it's
17:06 a very tough conversation this or this
17:08 whole topic is is tough because as you
17:10 said statement hints at temporary
17:12 inflation factors and uncertainty around
17:14 the CPI data and there's some weird
17:16 things being said there. Um but what
17:17 should buyers and sellers actually take
17:19 from this and and what what should we be
17:21 looking at in 2026 because we we can't
17:23 just keep throwing the subsidies at it.
17:25 No, no, that's right. And because the
17:27 problem is then that means look, it
17:30 means okay, that's great in the shorter
17:32 term, but two factors happen. Firstly,
17:35 um the subsidies got to come off unless
17:37 we're just permanently using taxpayers
17:40 monies to pay electricity bills, right?
17:42 Okay. I'm not sure that's sustainable uh
17:45 economically. Um, and the other thing is
17:47 that even if we did that and continue to
17:50 subsidize electricity, we're still not
17:51 seeing the real benefits from the switch
17:54 from renewables from uh the carbon
17:55 economy to renewables. So, we're still
17:58 going to see prices rise irrespective of
18:00 the subsidy and we can't just keep
18:02 increasing the subsidy or perhaps we'll
18:04 go broke because we won't have enough
18:06 money to cover that because everybody's
18:08 using electricity and it's not just
18:09 households, it's also obviously
18:11 businesses such as coffee shops, you
18:15 know, that are doing that. So um uh but
18:17 I think the outlook for your answer your
18:20 question is actually reasonably positive
18:23 because um you know we I think we'll see
18:25 flat interest rates for a while now. As
18:27 I said that takes a bit of volatility
18:30 out of the market. Um we've had massive
18:32 rises in house prices this year or
18:34 certainly very strong in house prices
18:36 this year in most capital cities and
18:39 unit prices. Um depending where they
18:41 were on their sort of individual cycles.
18:44 um that'll taper off because you know
18:46 you you just can't keep pumping up uh
18:48 home prices going to the bank and asking
18:50 for another 100 grand or 200 grand if
18:52 you don't have a lower interest rate or
18:55 a higher income. So that virtually
18:58 starts to um starts to steady house
18:59 price growth which will still be
19:01 positive because we've got you know
19:04 other policies coming through such as um
19:06 you know the government's uh you know
19:10 number of uh packages for first home
19:13 buyers and lowincome buyers you know so
19:15 um uh so that'll mean you know sort of
19:17 more demand anyway but the nature of
19:20 being able to push prices up higher uh
19:22 is constrained by you know the bank's
19:24 strict lending policies. which is a
19:25 really good thing. So what I'm saying is
19:27 that's good for certainty because it's
19:29 not going to create the volatility in
19:31 our markets and we'll get some
19:32 certainty. But of course what will
19:35 happen is if we do start to see a
19:37 peaking of the price cycle which is just
19:40 normal as we move past the volatility of
19:42 either lower rates or higher uh incomes.
19:45 You'll get the scary campaigns about oh
19:47 see house prices are falling. No,
19:48 they're just not rising as fast as they
19:50 were when you had three interest rate
19:52 cuts in six months. But that's another
19:54 story and it'll be picked up by the
19:55 media. So, you just got to hold your
19:58 nerve in a sense and realize that um
20:01 it's been a big gain in most capital
20:05 city housing markets uh over 2025
20:07 uh which will consolidate in 2026. So,
20:10 we'll see what happens.
20:12 All right, so let's move on. We've had
20:13 done lots of talking about interest
20:14 rates uh and quickly go through the
20:17 latest home rent data. Uh and this is
20:19 the my housing market report for
20:22 November. home rents, units, and houses.
20:24 We saw across the board increases in
20:26 unit rents, Rachel. Uh houses, however,
20:30 steady over November, and we sort of saw
20:32 a little bit of easing in uh vacancy
20:34 rates, a little bit higher for both
20:37 houses and units, but still very low.
20:38 So, it was just a bit of a a sort of a
20:40 marginal adjustment from what was a
20:43 steep fall in October due to a rush in
20:45 demand. Uh let's look at the numbers
20:48 now. City the most expensive as usual
20:51 for house rents at $800 uh per week for
20:54 asking rents and Hobart the most
20:57 affordable at $589
21:00 per week. Um over the year still some
21:02 very solid results there with the
21:04 exception of Melbourne where uh house
21:07 rents have fallen by 3.3%
21:08 uh which is a little counterintuitive
21:10 because their vacancy rate is still
21:13 quite low at 1 4%. Uh but over the month
21:15 most of the capital city markets were
21:19 either flat or u up just marginally with
21:21 the exception of Darwin. Volatile Darwin
21:25 down by 3.6% and Hobart down 1.3%. But
21:27 vacancy rates Rachel for houses are
21:31 still very low. Uh most well below um 2%
21:33 which is sort of the balance mark for
21:34 vacancy rates between higher and lower
21:37 rents. Um and a number there below 1%.
21:39 So this is still reflecting a shortage
21:43 of stock uh listed stock for house uh
21:46 for house uh rentals and um even though
21:48 there's a slight uptick in the monthly
21:50 change in vacancy rates they still
21:53 remain quite low and I think uh we'll
21:55 discuss the units now because that's
21:56 quite interesting because we did see a
21:58 surge in unit rents over the month quite
22:00 we haven't really seen this sort of a
22:02 breakout for a while uh and I think this
22:04 is maybe the you know units are
22:05 typically the more affordable option in
22:08 the rental market Um and and I think
22:10 that maybe there's a gravitation towards
22:12 units now because they're, you know,
22:15 more affordable uh as part of that now
22:19 new adjustment process um from still
22:22 very you know short numbers or low
22:24 numbers of properties that are available
22:27 for rent. Sydney uh as with houses still
22:30 the most expensive capital city for to
22:33 rent uh and um uh Darwin the most
22:36 affordable there at 463. a stronger
22:38 growth as you would expect over the year
22:41 for units. Um, uh, top performer there.
22:43 Adelaide up 11.1%. But these are good
22:46 strong results for unit owners in terms
22:48 of rental increases over the year. Just
22:51 remember they've put on top of that
22:53 which has been a very strong year for
22:55 for most capital cities in terms of
22:58 capital growth for um, for units. So
23:01 your your return and your uh your return
23:03 on investment in terms of the growth in
23:07 rents and of course your um higher
23:10 prices is good news for u for investors
23:12 out there. Rachel sort of ticks all the
23:14 boxes. vacancy rates a little bit higher
23:18 for units as usual than uh uh compared
23:20 to houses but vacancy rates
23:22 interestingly uh for Melbourne vacant
23:24 and and Canberra vacancy rates are over
23:26 2% but we did see an increase in
23:28 Melbourne rents of point8 of a percent
23:31 over the month and up by 5.3% over the
23:34 year so Melbourne certainly on the on
23:36 the road to recovery not just in terms
23:40 of prices but also rents um and uh I
23:41 would expect this to continue obviously
23:44 we're getting the shutdown period which
23:45 is for a couple of months people are
23:47 distracted uh there's not as much demand
23:50 coming through and we await February
23:52 March for the market to pick up again
23:54 but certainly we're ending the year in
23:57 terms of asking rents in the same vein
23:59 as the ABS has been telling us for the
24:00 last couple of months because they've
24:02 been telling us that rents and that's
24:04 total rents not just asking rents but
24:07 also rents from existing tenencies uh
24:09 have been on the rise now for a couple
24:11 of months so um we're sort of
24:12 correlating that but We have said said
24:14 that consistently with these low vacancy
24:17 rates for both houses and units, you can
24:20 expect to see um uh higher rents
24:22 eventually and now that's uh what's
24:23 occurring. If you want to get a copy of
24:26 that latest rent report, my housing
24:27 market November rent report, there's a
24:28 QR code. You can scan that and it'll
24:31 give you a PDF copy of the report. Rachel.
24:32 Rachel.
24:35 >> Yeah. Look, I think we're seeing a lot
24:37 of our renters being pushed into units
24:39 more out of necessity because of the
24:40 smaller price point, but you're looking
24:42 at some of that data in some of those
24:44 capital cities. The unit um rent price
24:46 point is almost as much as the housing.
24:48 Are we starting to see a genuine
24:50 preference change now?
24:52 >> Well, I think that's likely over the
24:53 longer term, Rachel, because >> yeah,
24:54 >> yeah,
24:56 >> that we're seeing a shift towards unit
24:58 living. And of course the first argument
25:00 in favor of that is affordability
25:01 because you know if you buy a unit it's
25:03 typically cheaper than a house and if
25:05 you rent a unit similarly it's typically
25:07 cheaper than renting sorry if you rent a
25:09 unit it's typically cheaper than renting
25:11 a house and there's also lifestyle
25:12 preferences that are happening here as
25:15 well um you know closer to the CBD
25:18 closer to established infrastructure uh
25:20 smaller footprint maybe cheaper
25:23 electricity prices uh in terms of um a
25:26 unit versus a house uh and That's all
25:28 part of the bigger picture. We've seen a
25:30 surge in unit development this year,
25:32 particularly in Melbourne and Sydney. Uh
25:33 they're trying to catch up with their
25:36 under supply environment. Um but and
25:38 that under supply is also part of the uh
25:40 part of the equation because there just
25:42 aren't as many properties around. That
25:44 gives us those low vacancy rates. Um and
25:45 what we're seeing now certainly is
25:47 higher rents and it'll be interesting to
25:56 And of course we uh now look at the
26:02 latest weekly auction results. Um and uh
26:05 of course we're got really one real week
26:08 left in the auction market, Rachel.
26:09 Probably two because one of the trends
26:12 we've seen over recent years is u people
26:13 are having properties happy to have
26:15 their properties in the market just the
26:17 week before Christmas. But um certainly
26:19 we've seen a uh clear signs that the
26:21 market's just starting to ease and we
26:24 expect that into December the uh first
26:27 full week of December auction activity
26:30 uh auction numbers and clearance rates
26:32 partic predictably eased because people
26:34 are thinking of other things and they've
26:35 done their buying and selling. It's been
26:37 a big year for buying and selling. In
26:39 fact, a record year for the number of
26:41 sales. I think my preliminary data is
26:43 telling me that we might see a record
26:45 spring in terms of the number of
26:47 properties actually transacted. So that
26:49 shows you how strong the market's been,
26:51 Rachel. Um even irrespective of prices
26:53 growth. And of course the same old same
26:55 old for the next two weeks until we do
26:57 get to Christmas. Uh we'll see an easing
27:00 in numbers and likely an easing in
27:02 clearance rates, but we await to see
27:04 that data uh when we bring our final
27:07 show next week. So, Sydney, half the
27:09 auctions uh over the past week compared
27:11 to the previous week. Clearance rate
27:12 still pretty good there in favor of
27:15 sellers 66.8% and higher than where it
27:17 was a year ago. Listing numbers lower.
27:18 It's considerably lower than where they
27:21 were a year ago in Sydney. Rachel,
27:24 Melbourne actually held up was um you
27:26 know was the outlier in terms of auction
27:27 numbers similar to the week. Big numbers,560
27:29 numbers,560
27:31 auctions in Melbourne. That's a high
27:33 number for December, let me tell you. In
27:34 fact, I think that might be a record
27:37 number for December auctions uh in
27:39 Melbourne. Uh still a reasonable
27:41 clearance rate, 66.1%. Of course, these
27:43 Sydney, Melbourne down a little bit
27:44 compared to the previous week. Still
27:47 ahead of where it was a year ago. Um but
27:48 listings higher than where it was a year
27:51 ago in Melbourne. uh Brisbane, uh
27:54 Adelaide and Canra listings all down and
27:56 uh clearance rates also a little bit
27:59 down but tracking still higher than
28:02 where they were a year ago with the uh
28:03 except well with the exception of Camber
28:05 and Adelaide but it's just clearly what
28:07 we see at the end of the year Rachel
28:09 easing in auction numbers and a slight
28:11 easing in clearance rates and those that
28:13 data is not withstanding the cycle and
28:15 when we look at the monthly uh clearance
28:17 rate data we can see that easing over
28:20 spring is what we see um as more
28:22 properties come into the market, but
28:24 clearance rates still track basically
28:27 70% plus in Sydney. Uh and a and a
28:29 really strong spring for the Melbourne
28:31 market. Uh mostly well really since
28:33 those interest rate cuts has been
28:35 tracking well above 70% for its best
28:38 results in about three years. Um
28:40 Brisbane down a little bit as spring as
28:43 uh the spring selling season concludes
28:45 and we get towards the end of the year.
28:48 Um Adelaide also easing as with
28:50 Canberra. So uh seasonal effects they're
28:54 affecting as uh expected our um uh our
28:57 results in the weekly auction market. So
28:59 if you want to get hold of those latest
29:02 um auction results Rachel, you can get
29:04 the uh which is very good for for
29:06 insights into general housing market
29:07 activity. That's why we bring them to
29:10 you every week. Um it's like reading the
29:12 tea leaves and it's uh it's always
29:15 reliable. So, uh, the weekly capital
29:17 city snapshot, uh, released on my
29:18 LinkedIn channel, which is doc Andrew
29:20 Wilson at LinkedIn every Saturday night
29:22 around about 6:00. And the full national
29:24 report is released Sundays at around
29:26 9:00, which includes the regional
29:27 breakdowns for Melbourne and Sydney,
29:28 which is good because it gives you
29:30 insights if you're in Melbourne and
29:32 Sydney as to how your local region is
29:34 performing in the auction markets. And
29:36 again, a very good insight generally
29:39 into how the the market in those regions
29:42 is performing. Um, and uh, if you did
29:44 miss the latest full national report,
29:47 there it is there. Get a QR code copy a
29:49 QR code copy of that and we'll give you
29:52 a PD PDF uh, file for the latest
29:55 national report. As usual, we'll quickly
29:56 finish off with the greatest giveaway in
29:58 housing. Rachel, the My Housing Market
30:02 Infinity uh, suburb app, which gives you
30:04 the latest asking prices and rents on
30:06 every suburb in Australia that has data.
30:09 Wow. Click the hot link there or get a
30:11 copy of the QR code. Go to the good
30:12 folks at Infinity. They'll tell you how
30:14 to access that app, which is great if
30:16 you want to know what's happening on a
30:19 suburb basis. Here's a screenshot of of
30:20 the app. We're looking here at prices.
30:22 You can also look at rents. You can
30:24 filter it for capital city regions or
30:26 outside capital city regions. We're
30:28 looking at New South Wales, Sydney
30:30 region. Uh we've picked Blacktown as a
30:32 suburb. You can filter for house, unit,
30:34 or townhouse. We're looking here at
30:36 houses. And you can also filter for the
30:38 number of bedrooms, Rachel. So you can
30:42 really drill down um to find out exactly
30:44 what's happening in the market at uh at
30:46 a granular level. So fourbedroom house
30:49 in Blacktown, not just the median asking
30:51 price, so telling you what the agents
30:53 and vendors are asking for their
30:55 properties at the moment, uh but also
30:57 the low and the high. So you have the
31:00 boundaries between um between the market
31:02 there. So you can get a good feeling for
31:05 what the market is uh is holding at the
31:06 moment and also the number of properties
31:09 for sale uh which is 20 there for
31:11 Blacktown. Exactly the same thing there
31:12 for the rental market. So good news
31:15 there um for analytics for either
31:18 tenants or landlords or anybody who's
31:19 just interested in what's happening in
31:21 the rental market. We also have
31:23 something for investors on the app which
31:25 is the top 10 yields on each of those
31:27 regional breakdowns. Here we're looking
31:30 at New South Wales um Sydney region
31:32 onebedroom [clears throat] units. Uh and
31:35 this gives you the um top 10 yield. So
31:37 that's return on investment which looks
31:39 at gross yields. So it doesn't include
31:43 your your um your particular uh expenses
31:45 but it's about the aggregated asking
31:48 rent currently divided into over a year
31:50 divided into the current asking price.
31:52 So that gives you your return on
31:54 investment uh your gross yield and you
31:56 can see there the top 10 uh not only the
31:58 yields but also the current vacancy rate
32:00 the number of properties for rent and
32:02 the um the number of properties for
32:04 sale. So it's quite a uh quite a
32:06 comprehensive insight into that suburb
32:09 based investor market. Uh and those hot
32:11 links will give you a map of the suburbs
32:12 just in case you don't know where they
32:14 are. you'll be able to have a wonderful
32:16 little journey through Sydney suburbs or
32:18 the other capitals or regional suburbs
32:20 to uh to tell you where these uh where
32:23 these high yields are exactly. Next
32:25 week, November labor market, it will be
32:27 our swan song. See you later alligator.
32:30 See you later 2025 and we'll be back in
32:33 2026 uh for more and and actually we're
32:35 going to have a big change in our app
32:37 next year Rachel with latest news. So,
32:40 look forward to that. Uh that'll go off
32:42 the shelf like hotcakes. So, uh, we'll
32:43 look at the November labor market.
32:45 Important data there in terms of
32:47 interest rates. November regional house
32:49 prices. I want to get the the regional
32:51 house prices in before the end of the
32:52 year for those that are outside the
32:54 capital cities. Uh, and we'll also look
32:56 at October house building costs if we
32:58 have time. And finally, the latest
33:00 weekly auction results, which will
33:03 likely be uh the last week of uh
33:04 significant auction activity. So, it's
33:06 been another great week, Rachel. Thank
33:08 you very much for your insights. Um
33:10 there is QR code if you've missed any of
33:13 this today. Uh you can uh scan that and
33:16 get a PDF copy of our report. So until
33:21 next week uh Rachel uh via Condos and um
33:24 uh then we'll say our final goodbyes for
33:26 2025. But what a year it's been.
33:29 Certainly uh it's been a it's been a a
33:30 really big year and look forward to next
33:32 year because we'll be able to tell
33:35 everybody exactly how strong 2025 has
33:36 been when we have the end of year
33:39 results in terms of house prices. My
33:41 voice is just about gone, but I made it.
33:42 >> Yeah. Well, doc, you're a man of many
33:44 talents. I don't know what you just said
33:47 to me before, but I believe it says it
33:48 said adios, I guess. Um
33:51 >> Oh, via. I think that means go with God.
33:54 But uh Spanish for all our Spanish for
33:57 all our Spanish speakers out there, [laughter]
33:59 [laughter]
34:01 I don't know. But uh that's about all my
34:04 Spanish anyway. But you got you you got
34:05 to keep it light or people say, "Oh my
34:08 god, that guy so boring." But um anyway,
34:10 it it will be great next week to uh to
34:12 do it all again for the last time in
34:13 2025. And it's been great having you
34:15 there. But we'll talk we'll talk about
34:17 that next week, shall we? Not Rachel. Go
34:18 out and do some Christmas shopping,
34:20 girl. Gee whiz.
34:21 >> I'm so behind.
34:22 >> Definitely looking forward to that
34:24 regional house price data. I know a lot
34:26 of our listeners like to get that
34:28 because we do focus on
34:30 >> the capital cities a lot. So that does
34:32 wrap up another week of unpacking the
34:34 numbers and the data that shapes the
34:36 nation. A big thank you to doc for
34:38 guiding us through it and we will be
34:40 back next week with more data, more
34:42 insights and more direction for buyers
34:44 and sellers. Thank you so much for listening.
34:45 listening.
34:47 >> Thank you Rachel. [music]
