0:02 so we've got a question about Dobbin the
0:04 in play betting strategy let's cover a
0:27 few pointers okay so straight away we
0:28 can see from the question there you've
0:30 come from a back to lay angle into
0:31 Dobbin I don't think that's an unusual
0:33 route to take although there is a little
0:35 bit of a problem with that she'll
0:37 explain in a second first of all for
0:38 anyone that's just come into this video
0:40 doesn't understand what Dobbin is Bob
0:42 stands for double or bust
0:45 meaning you back or start the race you
0:47 lay off a half its price hopefully or
0:49 potentially doubling your stake if that
0:51 doesn't work you obviously lose and you
0:53 lose your stakes going bust so you
0:56 double or bust quite simple so double or bust
0:56 bust
0:59 coming from a back to lay angle first of
1:01 all it's worth saying the two
1:03 disciplines are very different if you're
1:05 approaching one it's best just to sort
1:08 of raise your mind on the other almost
1:10 before approaching it and it's not worth
1:12 treating them as though the same the
1:14 reason for that being is double or bust
1:16 is more statistics based is based on
1:19 characteristics of a horse within a race
1:21 which then affects the price meaning of
1:23 Schlitt drastically shortens a lot of
1:25 the time that will come from the way the
1:27 horse behaves and the characteristics is
1:29 if it's what it's with in the race ie
1:31 outperform in the market looking as
1:33 though it's a lot more confident a lot
1:35 more likely to be in the finish for the
1:38 race than it actually is some horses do
1:40 this regularly and the behavior shows
1:41 through the jockeys as well because I
1:42 don't feel as though they need to rouse
1:45 the horse on when actually the horse is
1:48 not quite as a good thing as it may seem
1:51 initially whereas we've back into lay
1:53 we're just looking for horses that are
1:55 going to start the race and get a break
1:57 and ahead of the leaders of the field
1:59 obviously bringing the price in in the
2:02 process making sure that you can seal in
2:04 an early profit so one's more of an
2:06 early profit thing with the lead and the
2:08 other thing is an overall how would the
2:10 horse perform in terms of the whole
2:12 market looking as though it'll be in
2:13 with a good chance
2:15 therefore bringing in price so they're
2:17 very similar in the sense that they're
2:18 both in play but they are very different
2:21 for those reasons as well point as some
2:23 remember of both of these and
2:25 particularly with the DA be more than
2:27 anything is you you've got horse race
2:30 here right and it is not just about the
2:31 horse that you're selecting everyone
2:32 would love it to be about the horse
2:34 who's selecting but unfortunately it's
2:35 not there's other horses within a race
2:37 if you've got one selection that's
2:40 actually a good table proposition but
2:41 it's in the ten horse race and the other
2:44 nine horses are also dog propositions
2:46 you know the market can't have every
2:50 horse harfan in price so it makes it
2:51 harder is what I'm trying to say if
2:53 you've got other horses that are likely
2:55 to behave in the same way as with any
2:56 kind of trade-in we want to click to
2:59 knee we want one where it's an unfair
3:01 advantage where there's only one that's
3:02 really gonna do this and the other you
3:04 know potentially gonna look great in the
3:06 race even if the horse doesn't win and
3:09 so you want a clear-cut decision to make
3:11 secondly you're gonna want the behavior
3:13 to be confirmed so you want it to be
3:16 repetitive behavior the situation may
3:18 change if you've got you know that the
3:20 horse is the same horse and in the past
3:21 it's previously dodged several times
3:24 although it's now running over a very
3:25 different distance with a very different
3:27 jockey at a very different track that's
3:29 likely to impact things and that may put
3:31 you off making your decision depending
3:33 on what's happening within that race I
3:36 know you've mentioned the 25 or 50%
3:38 option there I can only assume that
3:40 comes from having news sites like Patton
3:43 forum where on some of the dobbing cards
3:45 and the different cards that they've got
3:47 available and then sites it shows you
3:50 every horses dobbed at 25 percent or 50
3:51 percent in the past which may be an
3:54 angle you want to take but as I keep
3:55 saying with all of these different
3:57 things and different questions
3:59 opportunity is not great equal and
4:01 therefore you can't expect to just say
4:03 I'm gonna take a flat 25% dog on
4:05 everything I choose because not
4:08 everything is a 25% opportunity it may
4:10 be a case of some horses of unknown for
4:12 Dublin and 50% of us is known for Dublin
4:14 at 25% in which case you want to adapt
4:17 your approach and Dobbin strategy or
4:20 angle to that before you actually even
4:22 get stuck into the detail of what we're
4:24 trying to do it because there's no point
4:26 just saying I've got a one-size-fits-all
4:27 because that's not
4:29 what happens of opportunity finally
4:31 we've W want to make sure that whatever
4:33 sites you're using to to groom your data
4:36 you want to check that it's actually
4:36 correct because I haven't noticed
4:38 himself at times in the past and you'll
4:40 see that sometimes that dogs get put up
4:42 on Twitter but if you burrow into the
4:44 actual horse's previous form and go on
4:46 somewhere like time form which lists the
4:48 in play loads of a horse
4:52 within racism in the past that you get
4:53 slightly different measurements or
4:55 results should we say in different
4:57 different places and make sure that what
4:58 you're looking at is confirmed from
5:01 different sources as well as actually
5:02 you know what you're visually seen in
5:05 sense of what rates are horses in and
5:06 all them kind of characteristics as well
5:08 on top of that the usual generic advice
5:10 in the sense of keeping your stakes low
5:13 avoiding the very short prices obviously
5:15 to find a short price runner that's
5:17 gonna half in price is harder to fight
5:18 and then you're going to get a large
5:20 price runner that's gonna run a half in
5:22 price because of the leverage within the
5:24 market and the different pricing the
5:26 more you stay cut the harder it always
5:27 becomes to get your stakes out so
5:29 keeping them low is it's a great place
5:30 to start from keeping them low as well I
5:31 mean what's the point in blowing any
5:33 more money than you need to you start
5:36 doing more too soon or start doing too
5:38 short prices and you're just back to
5:40 gambling and that's not why we're here
5:42 I mean dobbing is technically a betting
5:44 strategy although you know it depends on
5:46 opinion you could say it's a trading
5:47 strategy as well because you're trading
5:49 out on the other end of the bet so quick
5:52 roundup on this then dubbing pick your
5:54 pick your opportunities carefully make
5:56 sure that you're only going for the very
5:59 best ones try to avoid markets that
6:00 aren't particularly liquid keep the
6:03 stakes low usual kind of stuff avoid
6:06 short prices and make sure that you are
6:07 looking at it and coming in from the
6:09 angle of you're looking at a more
6:10 statistically how the horse has behaved
6:12 in the past and its actual running
6:15 characteristics rather than you know is
6:16 it a leader and then and then treating
6:18 it as though it's a dog because they're
6:22 two different things one good job
6:24 opportunity each day is far better than
6:26 having three rubbish ones because
6:27 obviously you know you're gonna burn
6:29 your steaks and the others he's keeping
6:31 your powder dry as they say or making
6:33 sure that you're minimizing those losses
6:37 and risk on top of dragging in any
6:39 potential profits so question a few guys
6:40 before I go then
6:41 if you were to use a doubling strategy
6:44 or a back to lay strategy what would be
6:46 your preferable approach for employee
