The content discusses the potential implications of President Trump's upcoming visit to China, particularly in light of his veiled threats regarding oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and China's likely refusal to comply with his demands, which could impact US-China relations and global stability.
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Now, let's cross to Katrina Yu who's
joining us live from Beijing.
Katrina, Trump is expected to be in
China at the end of the month, but in
that article, he's making possibly a
veiled threat, at least pressure on
Beijing to try and help him. I mean,
>> I don't think it's going to go down.
Well, in the article, Trump mentioned
China is one of the beneficiaries of oil
being shipped through the straight of
Hormuz. That is correct. He also said
that China gets about 90% of its oil
through the straight. That's not
correct. It gets more like 40%, but it
is still a substantial amount. Now, as
far as we know, that visit by Trump to
China is still going ahead. In fact,
over the last two days, today and
yesterday, Chinese and uh US officials
have been meeting in Paris to discuss
potential outcomes for that visit that
Trump is expected to make. Um, and the
Chinese side and the US side said that
was constructive and positive. So, we're
yet to hear any official response to
this uh Financial Times interview, but
if that meeting or that summit were to
be cancelled, it would indeed be a blow.
This has been months in the making and
the whole point of this visit is to
stabilize the relationship between the
two biggest superpowers to prevent a
long list of disagreements from
spiraling out of control into a wider
conflict. And there's a lot of stake at
lot a lot at stake for both the US and
Chinese economies. On the agenda was uh
were a few trade agreements, the
discussion about the export of rare
earths from China to the US and
technology exports from the US to China.
of this were p to be delayed or
postponed indefinitely. That would be
bad news for for uh the companies
operating in both countries. And it does
show how volatile this relationship
between uh Washington in Beijing is.
China has made no promises that this
meeting is going ahead and actually
there have been reports that China has
been a bit frustrated about the lack of
forward planning from Washington. But so
far as we know um officials here on both
sides are planning for that trip to
happen. Now Katrina, one thing we do
know about Donald Trump is he's very
very good at threatening nations. Now if
he does uh threaten to delay or cancel
even the summit, what does China do then?
>> Well, I think it's very unlikely that
China is going to do what Trump asked,
that is to send some material help to
help keep the street of Hormuz
unblocked. I think there are three main
reasons for that. First, Chinese
President Xiinping does not have a
history of capitulating or following any
Trump's any of Trump's orders or
coercion or threats. And we saw this
last year with the long-running trade
dispute when Trump hiked those tariffs
up to over 100%. China just said fine
and it hiked uh tariffs up in kind. So,
I think that's the first thing. The
second thing is that we know that China
has been one of the biggest critics of
the US and Israel's war on Iran.
condemned those uh those attacks that
happened when negotiations were still
underway. China's foreign minister has
said time and time again that force is
not the answer. It's urging for
deescalation and return to the
negotiating table. So it's quite
difficult to imagine that Beijing would
send firepower to that region. And
third, I think the last reason is that
when you look at the Chinese oil that is
trans uh being transiting through the
straight of Hmus, there are some reports
that Chinese ships are still uh being
allowed to pass and that is because
China is in a very friendly and positive
partner for Iran. It's the biggest
trading partner, the biggest buy of
Iranian oil. So there are reports albeit
unconfirmed that Iran is still allowing
Chinese shipments to pass through a few
to pass through the straight of Hormuse.
So that would reduce even further
Beijing's motivation to send some
warships or uh do whatever Trump said to
keep the straight of Hormuz unblocked.
>> That's Katrina you live for us there
from Beijing.
Now Andy Mock is a senior research
fellow with the Center for China and
Globalization, a think tank that's based
in Beijing. He's also a professor at the
Beijing Foreign Studies University and
he joins us from Beijing. Uh Andy, this
was completely predictable and totally
avoidable. The the shutting of the
straight of Hermoose was going to happen
if this escalated. But does this give
China an opportunity to re to reassert
itself assert itself as an alternative
to the US when it comes to a power broker?
Well, I think you're certainly right
that the US uh walked into, you know, a
morass or a quagmire. And there's an
American phrase, you know, uh fafo,
right? Uh mess around and find out. And
I think it really uh again, for whatever
reasons, is finding itself entangled in
a situation that's very very difficult
to extract itself from. And I think the
best way to understand maybe how China
is viewing this is uh there's a very
famous saying I believe attributed to
Napoleon uh never interrupt your
opponent when he is making a mistake. So
I think that from that perspective uh
certainly while the US is tied down I
think while it's a navy which was
originally under tremendous stress and
you know one way I've heard it put is
while the US military the tip of the US
military spear is sharp the shaft is
brittle and I think we are seeing that
play out as well. So that certainly
distraction uh certainly I think is in
China's interest. And then I think
finally uh China's uh approach to this
really has been uh to any kind of
conflict is uh to resolve it through
mutual discussion uh respect for
sovereignty versus any sort of uh direct
military intervention. So I think it
does seem as we heard Katrina just say
too that it seems unlikely that China
would intervene in the way that Trump is
President Trump is hoping for.
>> But President Donald Trump puts a lot of
stock in personal relationships and he
does have a relationship. We don't know
if it's good or bad, but he certainly
has one with Xi Jinping, and he's going
to use that publicly to put pressure on
China to try and help out. His biggest
card he's got at the moment is
cancelling the summit. What does that mean?
mean?
Well, I think that's an interesting uh
approach because certainly I think from
the Chinese perspective again, it
recognizes and respects the bilateral
relationship uh between China and the
United States. But I think also uh as
we've seen over the last year or so, uh
China also uh exerts tremendous leverage
over the United States. It's not just
the rare earth metals, it's the Boeing
aircraft, it's the uh soybeans uh sold
by American farmers. So I think while
certainly personal relationships matter
in diplomacy, just as they say in
Hollywood, it's not show friends, it's
show business. And I think that's even
more true of diplomacy. Well, talking of
diplomacy then it has China has a very
very good relationship, a good working
relationship with uh Iran. It supplied
technology to Iran just before the the
war uh happened. What's the state of
relations now between Iran and China?
Because China hasn't stepped up in
perhaps the way a lot of military
analysts thought they might. Uh but
again if you look at what China has done
in previous conflicts you mentioned that
earlier China doesn't really get
>> Yes I think that's absolutely right man
and I think again this is a very
profound difference I think in approach
to diplomacy that is more than just
tactical but again I would say it's it's
philosophical as well. Uh I also want to
mention I think a very very important
point here that's not perhaps well
appreciated. So, China of course through
uh rare earth metals actually provides
critical inputs uh into patriot missiles
etc. So this is uh one area that I think
the US is acutely aware of. But at the
same time uh because of its uh
manufacturing supply chain for uh drones
uh its components it is also even though
perhaps not at the state level uh
actively supporting Iran in this way but
certainly uh I think you know again uh
providing critical inputs through market
mechanisms uh to Iran to continue this
conflict uh to defend itself from this
aggression from the United states uh and
Israel. So I think this dynamic I think
is also uh very very important to appreciate.
appreciate.
>> Uh but Andy, what is the relationship?
You just mentioned Israel there and that
was going to be my next question. Is
there a relationship between China and
>> Right. Well, you know, again, I think
China's approach is first of all uh not
to take one side over the other. And I
think we see this very clearly uh in
West Asia or the Middle East and that it
believes in the importance of uh
relationships uh with all countries in
the region. So it's not just the GCC
countries. It's also as we're talking
about today, it's Iran, uh it's Israel.
So and I think this is a very different
approach to how the US uh approaches diplomacy
diplomacy
in this region. And I think again we're
seeing the negative impact on this. So
it's not only the short-term oil
disruption, the impact it might have on
global economies including the United
States. Uh but this may actually
irrevocably uh damage uh the trust that
in particular the GCC countries uh have
in the United States. So I think again
uh there are I think very high cost to
the US approach of uh taking one side
and I think these are becoming more
visible with this uh recent uh action.
>> Andy Mark Trump
>> administration. Andy thank you so much
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