The ongoing conflict between the US/Israel and Iran, framed as World War III, is analyzed through game theory, focusing on its potential to reshape the global geopolitical and economic landscape, particularly impacting the GCC, the US dollar, and global energy markets.
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I hope everyone had a nice break and
welcome back to the end of the world.
So, as you know, World War III has
started. The United States and Israel
have started to attack Iran.
And we are now in the fourth day of this
war, and we can expect this war to last
for many weeks,
possibly also for many years.
But I promise you that after this war is done,
done,
the world will never be the same again.
So, what what we will do these next few
weeks is use game theory
and understand and analyze the
geopolitical situation.
And so, I'm going to teach you the
ideas, the theories, the techniques to
understand the world around you and make
predictions. And we can know if our
analysis is correct because all this is
happening in real time, and so we can
test it against reality.
All right. So, let's go over some basic
facts about what's happened so far.
So, in the early morning of Saturday,
uh in Tehran, the Israelis and Americans
launched a decapitation strike against
the Ayatollah uh
Khamenei who is the supreme leader of Iran.
Iran.
Now, there are
arguments and and disputes about as to
what happened.
The Americans and Israelis said that
they had >> [clears throat]
>> [clears throat]
>> real intelligence about where the leader
was, and so they sent airplanes to just
bomb the crap out of the place. They
also had a spy who was able to record
the body of the dead Ayatollah.
And then this was announced.
At first, the Iranians denied this, and
the Iranians insisted he was still
alive. But eventually, state media
um admitted that he did die in the
airstrike. But then what they also said
is that Ayatollah is 86 years old and he
chose to die.
He could have gone to Moscow,
but instead he chose to stay in Tehran
and die for his people.
But only that, but he died along many of
his relatives. He died along with his
daughter, his son-in-law, his
grandchildren. So the entire So many of
the family died in this assault.
Also, there's been reporting that he had
prostate cancer. Okay, so he's going to
die fairly soon as well. So what you
need to understand first about the war
is that even though the Americans and
Israelis claim great success
in decapitating the leadership of
the Iranians, from the Iranian
perspective, this is a martyrdom.
And so the religion of the Iranians is
called Shia
um Muslim. And this is different from
Sunni [snorts]
Muslim. So uh Sunnis are the majority.
They're about 90% of all Muslims in the
world. The Shia have always been the
minority. And as such, they've always
been persecuted.
So in the Shia faith, the core value,
the force that binds everyone together
and gives them purpose and meaning in
life, that galvanizes them into action,
is the idea of martyrdom, which forces jihad.
jihad.
To sacrifice yourself for your religion,
sacrifice yourself for the common good.
So think of the death of Khamenei as a
sacrifice, a self-sacrifice, in order to
motivate the Iranians
in this war, okay?
So that's the first thing you need to understand.
understand.
That for the Iranians, this is not a
typical war. This is not an economic
war. This is not a war of resistance.
This is a jihad, okay? It's a war
against the Great Satan to avenge their leader.
leader.
They will fight to the death.
All right? That's number one. Number
[snorts] two is this.
Also that morning when um
um
Ayatollah was killed,
the Israelis struck a school in the
south of Tehran, killing about 150
school children. These are girls in
primary school.
And again, there's a lot of debate and
argument as to what happened. The
that first of all, the school was next
to a military base. We are targeting a
military base.
And second of all, it wasn't us which
struck the school. It was a
air defense missile that went off course.
course. Okay?
Okay?
And the Iranians insisted, "No. The
Israelis purposefully attacked the
school to kill the school children." And
then you're like, "Why would the
Israelis do that?"
But then these few years, well, we've
seen what they've done in Gaza in
Palestine to the Palestinians. It's
pretty consistent what the Israelis have
been doing. All right? So, this action
against the Israelis, it's meant to show
to themselves and the world that we are
now all in, okay? We've made the sacrifice.
sacrifice.
We are now committed to this war to
winning this war at all costs.
And this action
has also provoked the Iranian people to
resist with their full might, okay?
So, I want you to keep this in mind. And
again, we don't have complete evidence
that it's the Israelis who did this,
but given past actions from the
Israelis, this is fairly consistent
with what they've done.
Okay? So, we can assume that this is
something the Israelis do did. Why they
did this, what the purpose is, is
something we will we will discuss as we
move on, okay? It's very complicated.
Next, I want to show you this.
This is Dubai, and Dubai is considered
one of the wealthiest, safest cities in
the world. There are thousands, tens of
thousands of Westerners who moved to
Dubai because it's clean, you don't pay
any taxes, you make a lot of money. And
you there are great restaurants. And
this is really the economic model of
Dubai. It's one of the Gulf the GCC
countries, okay? The Gulf
um coastal countries. And
And
for the longest time
Dubai had a really good deal.
Because they were under the protection
of the American military. So, they
didn't have to pay for defense.
They and then they were in the Middle
East, which is the oil producing um
center of the world. And so, they
focused on aviation. They focused on
logistics. They focused on finance, on
tourism. They made so many wealthy,
right? I'm not sure if you've taken
Emirates, one of the best airlines in
the world. So, their airport, Dubai
airport, is the busiest in the world.
And Dubai for the longest time was
flourishing under American protection.
And Dubai said to the world, "Listen,
we're like Switzerland. We're neutral.
We don't want any involvement in any
war. We're here just to take care of our
citizens, to make sure everyone has a
good time, to make money." >> [snorts]
>> [snorts]
>> And then, right after the war started,
the Iranians attacked the
the
uh GCC, okay?
Dubai, Abu Dhabi,
uh Bahrain, Qatar,
Kuwait. They attacked these places. And
these places were like, "What's going
on? We're neutral, man. We're not
involved in this war. And the airport
was shut down in Dubai. At
one point, rich the rich people in Dubai
were willing to pay about 26,000 US
dollars just to get on a plane and get
out of there. Okay?
Okay?
So, um
the reality is this. For the longest
time, Dubai had a reputation for being
safe and that's why people move their
money there. Guess what, guys? After
what the Iranians did, it's dead. Dubai
as a city in the long term, it is dead.
Because you're wealthy Westerner, you're
not going to move to a place where you
could be attacked anytime by the Iranians.
Iranians.
You might move to Singapore, you might
move to Hong Kong, Japan,
South America, but you're not moving to
Dubai, okay? So, the big question for us
is, why did the Iranians do this?
If it was the Israelis and Americans who
attacked you, why go after the GCC?
All right? And not only that, but
they're escalating the attacks against
the GCC. So, there's something that we
will look at very closely today.
>> [snorts]
>> Well, the short answer is because these
places, even though they they pretend to
be neutral, [clears throat]
they house the American military. They
allow the Israelis and Americans to use
their airspace to attack Iran from. All
right? So, this is Bahrain.
Now, Bahrain is interesting, okay?
Because I I I want you guys to remember
this. But, Bahrain will probably be one
of the major centers of this conflict.
Because, first of all, this is the um
American Fifth Fleet. All right? This is
their naval base in the Middle East. And
as you can see, the Iranians are
attacking it with missiles. And it's
being blown up. Bahrain is interesting
because it has
about 50% or even more okay, Shia. Which
is the religion of the Iranians.
But, the people in charge are the Sunnis.
Sunnis.
And so,
what is the what makes this strike
really important for our for our
perspective is, first of all, not only
are the Iranians attacking US military assets,
assets,
not only are they destroying the
economies of the GCC, but they're also
also trying to ignite a religious war,
right? Because you're Shia,
you're loyal to the Ayatollah. And if
he's dead, then you must, as a religious
obligation, now commit jihad against
your enemies.
It's no different in other religions
where Listen Listen, if you want to kill
the Pope, the Catholics would be really
angry at you, and they would want to
kill you, right?
So, now you have the Shia who will
probably eventually arise, creating a revolution
revolution
in Iran, okay? So, I think Iran will be
the first to fall. Dubai will probably
go bankrupt,
okay? But in the long term, we can
expect the entire GCC area,
including Saudi Arabia,
to eventually collapse, okay? And so,
there's something we'll use game theory
to understand.
All right.
Let's continue. So,
So,
we will know how this war develops just
based on geography, okay? So, this is a
map. And this map, even even even if you
don't really know the war, even if you
don't know the participants, even if you
don't know the weaponry, this map will
tell you exactly how this war will progress.
progress.
All right. So, some certain things to
keep in mind about this map.
This is what we call this area, okay?
Really small, but it's 33 km wide, okay?
People can swim across it. It's really,
really um uh narrow, okay? This small
area, guys, it's called the Strait of Hormuz.
Hormuz.
And it's important because
it's really the center of the world.
This one area is the nexus, the pivot
of the world.
Let me explain why. First of all, from
the GCC, you have 20%
of all the world's oil flowing through
the narrow strait. Where does it go,
guys? It goes to Asia,
India, Pakistan, South Korea, China, Japan.
Japan.
India depends on 60% of its oil from
this area.
China depends on 40%. Japan, 75%.
Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda of Japan has
said that
listen, if the Strait of Hormuz closes,
we're going to have oil in about 8-9 months.
months.
The entire Japanese economy would
collapse in 8-9 months if the Strait of
Hormuz were to close. And guess what?
They would need to have closed the
Strait of Hormuz.
Okay? So, we can expect that the entire
global economy will suffer greatly over
the next few months.
All right. So, that's point number one.
Point number two is
Okay. So, the GCC sends oil across the
Strait of Hormuz, and what do they get
back in return?
Food, guys.
people don't appreciate the GCC, but it
is really the linchpin of the American
Empire. Because what is the American
Empire? The American Empire is the petrodollar.
petrodollar.
All right? The idea of the petrodollar
is this. The US dollar is worth nothing.
It's only valuable if people want it.
But the GCC says that if you want oil
from us, you have to pay us in US dollars.
dollars.
Okay? Then that is the basis of the
value of the US dollar. >> [snorts]
>> [snorts]
>> So, if the GCC collapses, the American
economy and the Empire both collapse at
the same time.
The problem though is the GCC is an
artificial construct of empire. It does
not exist
naturally. Why? Because it has no food,
it has no oil, no water.
Okay guys, no food, no water.
So these cities are able to grow up in
the millions because of all these petrol
dollars flowing in.
If you close off the Strait of Hormuz,
there's no food coming in.
How much food does the GCC get
80% of all the food it consumed comes
from overseas that it imports. It does
not grow by itself, it imports.
All right?
The Strait of Hormuz is really key. And
again, the Iranians will close it in
order to strangle the global economy and
therefore bankrupt the American Empire.
All right? Second thing you will notice
is these mountains.
These mountains is what we call Iran.
All right, this is Iran.
This is GCC.
Okay, this is not a fair match up,
right? Because these are mountains. And
what can you do in mountains? We can
hide rocket bases, you can hide drone
bases, you can hide hide missiles. And
that's the entire
Iranian offensive strategy. All right?
From here, they can hide missiles and
drones from which to attack
the GCC. And what are they attacking?
They're attacking um
um
three things, right? They're attacking
American military bases, American
American
That's number one.
Okay? Is it possible for the Americans
to defend against these attacks? The
answer is no.
no.
NO, IT'S NOT. IT'S NOT. [laughter] IT'S
THE SILLIEST THING IN THE WORLD. YOU
have all these bases in the Middle East,
but you cannot defend them against the
Iranians. That's kind of strange. Okay,
but that's number one. Number two is
How hard is it to blow up an oil field
with a drone?
Not hard at all. Can you defend these
oil fields?
No, you cannot.
All right?
Number three,
and this is most important, is water.
Okay? You guys don't know this, but
the GCC
has little access to fresh water.
So, the only way that it can produce
water is what is what we call
desalination plants, okay? These
factories that take salt water and then
through electrical chemical process turn
it into fresh water for the population
to use. 60%
60%
of the water supply in the GCC comes
from desalination plants, okay? 60%.
Is it hard to blow up this desalination
plant using a drone? The answer is it's
very easy. You understand? Okay? So, you
have this absurd situation where Iran is
a mountain fortress
where it can hide its offensive capacity
and the GCC
it's just this desert this flat desert
and it is exposed to attack and there's
nothing it can do about it, okay?
So, at any point in this war
the Iranians can choose to just destroy
the entire GCC
and there's nothing that anyone can do
about it.
Okay? But, Iran also has a weakness,
okay? And this is fundamental. So, Iran
also has a water problem, okay? So, for
the longest time, they suffer they
suffer a drought issue.
Okay? It's just climate change.
And so, what the plan
plan
of the Israelis and Americans is is is
destroy the water supply
of the Iranians.
Because the fortress it's it is a
mountain fortress, but it can also be a
mountain prison as well, where people
are trapped inside with no access to
water. Okay? So, what what we're going
to see right now, we're we're already
seeing attacks on civilian
infrastructure, hospitals.
In the future, you'll see attacks on
water supply, on dams, on reservoirs,
on power plants.
The point, the idea is to make Iran so
inhabitable that the people will will
have to rebel against the people or
there'll be a refugee crisis in Iran. Okay?
Okay?
So, as you can see from this map, this
war, it is the end of the world.
Okay? Both sides have the potential to
destroy each other. It's really a
question of
how far do they want to go?
All right? We we can also say this is
almost a game of chicken. Okay?
We can blow we can blow each other up.
And the problem is this. The problem is
that the Iranians are Shia,
which believes in martyrdom. And you've
killed the religious leader, Ayatollah
Khamenei. So, they're willing to go very
very far.
The GCC The GCC countries are
Muslim, but they're materialistic. They
love money. And also, most of the
population are expatriates, foreigners.
90% of Dubai are foreigners. Guess what
Guess what's going to happen if they
suffer. They're all going to run away. Okay?
Okay?
So, this is not a fear match-up.
The big question that people have is,
first of all,
are the Americans going to use ground troops?
troops?
Because the only way that you can defeat
Iran is by using ground troops, okay?
That's the big question we'll look at in
the next few weeks.
Will the Will America send its army?
Half a million, 2 million soldiers to
topple the government? Okay, that's
question number one. Question number two,
two,
If you lose the war,
would you choose to use nuclear weapons?
Okay, that's another big question that
we have, okay? Now, another big question
that we have is who gets involved?
Because this situation is so dire that
Europe, okay? Specifically Germany,
France, and Britain
are talking about entering this war.
And guess what?
If that happens, it is possible that
Russia and China
will also enter this war on the side of
the Iranians. This is World War III, okay?
okay?
Because of the importance of the Strait
of Hormuz, because of the importance of
the Middle East, everyone has to get
And we're going to use game theory to
really try to understand what what's
happening on the ground and where this
could lead us. Okay?
Okay?
All right.
You guys understand?
All right.
All right.
Let's continue.
Okay, so again, there are American bases
all over the Middle East.
And originally these bases were
established to protect them from
basically their own people, okay? These
are monarchies that were imposed on
these nations by the Anglo-American
empire, the British first and then
Americans came to support these monarchies.
monarchies.
And so they provide defense.
But then you're like, "Wait a minute
here. I mean, didn't you just say that
these American bases can't actually
defend these people, that they're exposed?"
exposed?"
And the And the reason And the answer
is, yes, that's true. But remember that
the American military was built during
the Cold War. Okay?
Okay?
And the Cold War was a war between the
Soviet Union and um America. And so
the Cold War was defined as something
called MAD, mutually assured destruction.
destruction.
Because both had nuclear weapons, okay?
So they didn't really go to war against
each other. And so in other words, these
bases aren't really meant to defend uh
these nations from other enemies,
they're really meant to impose American
authority in the Middle East.
Okay? And it's the idea of this. It's
the idea that empire
it is really a
a image.
image.
It is a hallucination. It is an idea.
Empire is the It's an aura of
invincibility and invulnerability, okay?
If you fear it, then you obey it.
But it's not really designed to fight a
war, okay? And And so that's why we have
this absurd situation.
And because there are so many bases in
the GCC, that gives the Iranians the
perfect pretext to attack them and to
destroy the GCC economy, which will
destroy the American empire.
Right? All right. So this is how the war
shipping out, okay? So, so the red is
the Israelis and Americans, the yellow are
are the
the
Iranians. And as you can see, the
Iranians are attacking everywhere. Primarily
Primarily Israel,
Israel,
okay? But also, as you can see, a lot of
focus on Bahrain
and Qatar. And again, the intention is
to destabilize
the economy and the government. Okay?
It's a It's a try to get as much
instability as possible.
All right? >> [snorts]
>> Okay. And as you can see, the Americans
and Israelis are focused on Tehran.
And so, the Americans and Israelis use
And the very idea of shock and awe is
you decapitate
the enemy. You cut off the head,
the body will fall down, okay?
The problem, though, is again, the
Iranians see this as a religious war.
And so, the Iranians have off have
announced total war.
Okay? And so, what this means is that
right now command and control in in Iran
is decentralized.
There's no one person telling anyone
what to do. Every region has its own
orders, has its own strategy.
And so, if you knock out Tehran,
everyone else keeps on going. You see
what I mean? So, if you knock off the
take off the head, it doesn't change anything.
anything.
Okay? But unfortunately, the
the um
um
Israelis and Americans use this as a
military doctrine.
Military doctrine just means how how how
you design your military for what purpose.
purpose.
And so, the even though the Americans
seem like an invincible army, they are
not equipped to fight a 21st century war
against drones, against digitalization,
against religious fanatics. Okay?
They're just not.
All right? But, unfortunately, because
of military military doctrine,
they're going to keep on attacking Tehran.
Tehran.
Now, the great irony of all this is that
the Iranians, who will be most
supportive of you of regime change, are
actually in the cities because they're
educated, they're progressive. The
people who are most fundamentally
against you, who will fight you to the
death, are religious fanatics, the Shia
militants living in the rural areas. Okay?
Okay?
So, this is a really silly thing where
you are actually destroying those who
who will most likely support you, and
you're leaving alone those who are most
likely to commit jihad against you.
All right?
Any questions so far, guys?
Are you clear? All right. So, another
idea that I want you guys to understand
is the idea of asymmetry. Asymmetry.
All right? So, what is asymmetry?
Asymmetry means that the two sides are
choosing to fight different wars using
different techniques because
one is much stronger than the other,
okay? America is a great empire. It has
unlimited resources. It has It has the
USD. It has It controls the world,
right? Iran uh
is a country that has been under
economic sanctions for the past 45
years. It's poor. It's technology is
very limited, okay?
But, as we learn in this class, actually,
actually,
those nations that are poor actually
have more energy. They're more open, and
they're more cohesive. All right? So,
let me give you an example. This is what
we call the Shahed
drones. Shahed drones.
Each of these drones cost $50,000 at
most, okay? At most. It can go as cheap
as $35,000.
But one of them is one of them is
$50,000. As you can see, you can fit a
lot of these drones to a truck that can
go anywhere in Iraq. And then you can
hide anywhere.
All right? So, the thing you need to
understand is first of all, these drones
are cheap, they're easy They're easy to
make. They make about 500 a day.
Okay? And that's what I was about to
say, 80,000
um right now that the Iranians have. So,
they can go on for a long, long time.
Okay? And one of these drones, again,
can knock out of this this annihilation
plant. It can knock out a oil field. It
can knock out a hotel. It can do a lot
of damage. Okay? And it's easily
transportable. You can hide it anywhere.
You can you can you can use it from
anywhere, okay?
And that's what the Iranians are using
as an offensive weapon.
And how do the Americans defend against this?
this?
They use something called a THAAD, right?
All right, guys. This is what they use. THAAD.
THAAD.
THAAD stands for Terminal High Altitude
Area Defense. And they also have the
Patriot systems. There's a lot, okay?
The thing that you will that you need to
know know about the system is it's
really expensive. This missile, guys,
costs $1 million. >> [snorts]
>> [snorts] [sighs and gasps]
>> $1 million.
So, there's this $50,000 drone coming
your way, and you throw a million-dollar
missile at it, okay? And often these
missiles miss, so you have to throw two
or three missiles at it, okay? So,
you're you're you're spending two to
three million dollars on each $50,000
that the Iranians spend.
That's kind of silly.
Second thing you'll notice is that this
thing is really big and really slow.
And therefore, you can't really move it around.
around.
Therefore, it's pretty easy for the
Iranians to spot where this is and
attack it.
And when these things blow up, that's a
lot of money, guys. Okay?
Okay?
Then you're like,
"What? But this makes no sense. You know
the Iranians have drones. They've had
drones for like 10 years. You've also
seen drones used in the Russia-Ukraine
war to devastating effect. Why don't the
Americans know this? Why didn't they
prepare?" Okay, and again, it has to do
with military military doctrine. Because
military doctrine determines how you
fight a war, it determines on your
bureaucracy, and it
and it determines how you spend your
resources, okay? And unfortunately, the
Americans are used to fighting something
called the Cold War.
Right? And the Cold War, because you
can't actually fight the war. You can't
actually use
kill each other because then you people
use nuclear weapons. The Cold War was
Flexing. Okay? You see how big and
POWERFUL I AM? ME! OKAY? That's all it was.
was.
These weapon systems are designed to
scare the crap out of you. They were
designed to impress you.
And as a result, they cost a lot of
money, and they really don't do
anything, all right? So, that's the
entire American military. It costs a
lot, and it doesn't really do anything.
It's not resilient. It's not innovative.
It's not open.
All right? Also, the other thing, I have
to say this, okay? Is if you look at the
American military,
it's corrupt.
So, this is
really about corruption.
So, the Americans don't really care
about winning a war. What they care
about is spending as much money as possible
possible
because then they get a cut. It doesn't
make sense.
All right, and that's why the Americans
are in the situation
as they are.
All right, let's continue.
All right. [snorts]
So, um something that people don't
really talk about, but you need to
understand, is the water issue in the
GCC, in the Middle East, in Iraq. All
right. So, um
um
this is a map of the world.
And if you are light blue, Brazil,
Canada, you have nothing nothing to
worry about because you have a lot of
water, a lot of fresh water, very little population.
population.
All right. So, um
um 100%
just means
100% water stress just means that you
drink as much water as the environment produces.
produces.
Okay? So, you want to be below 100% to
be sustainable. Ideally, you want you
want you want to be at 10%, okay?
If it goes above 100%, it means that you
are drinking more water, using more
water than the environment actually produces.
produces.
Okay, so you're putting stress on the environment.
So, 20%
is really bad, right? You're you're
you're using twice as much water as the
environment produces.
Guess what, guys? Look at the Middle
East, okay? Egypt. 6
6
thousand 420%.
Saudi Arabia. 883%.
All right. Bahrain.
Almost 4000%.
This So, water is a huge issue. Again,
it doesn't matter if Iran
kills American soldiers, destroys
American military. It doesn't have to do
that. All it has to do is destroy the
desalination plants, and then the GCC is
destroyed, okay?
But, it's also true that Iran
has water issues. 72% is pretty bad. Okay?
Okay?
So, even though the Iranians could
destroy the GCC much faster than the
Americans could destroy Iran, Iran is
still in trouble, okay? So, so, so, let
let me let me give you give you an
example of this.
This is like Oh, sorry. Sorry. So, this
is another map that shows you
uh the issue of water scarcity, okay?
It's It's just basically the Middle
East, okay? Their biggest issue in the
future is water.
Okay? And that's where the geopolitical
tensions will rise in the future, over water.
water.
India is also affected as well, okay?
All right.
All right. So,
let's look at that map, guys. This is
called Lake Urmia in northern Iraq. It's
the sixth largest salt water lake in the
world, or it used to be.
Okay? This is what it was in 1984. The
This is the shallow. This is the deep,
okay? Can you see that? It's really big,
right? 20 years later, guys,
this is what it looks like.
There's no more water here. You can walk
from here over to there, okay? There's
some water over here, but it's shallow now.
now.
That's how serious the water issue is in
Iran, and that's the weak point that the
Americans and Israelis will attack.
All right? They want to make sure that
Iran has no access to fresh water, which
will cause devastation in their nation.
Okay, that's strategy number one.
Strategy number two is this.
This is a map of
the different ethnic minorities uh in Iran.
Iran.
As you can see, it's a very diverse
place. In the center are the Persians,
but you also have
10 other groups as well. And in the
borderlands, it's basically different
countries, right? Like these are
basically different countries.
And so, these places have more common
common areas with their neighbors than
they do with Iran. Okay, so the second
weakness of Iran. The first is water.
The second is the ethnic makeup of the
country. So, the strategy of the
Americans and Israelis moving forward is
to destroy Iran as a coherent
nation-state, divided into ethnic
enclaves, and have them fight over water.
water.
That is the grand plan of the Israelis
and Americans, okay?
All right. This is This is This is the
vision, where Persia is limited, and
then all these other places are
sponsored by the Americans and the
Israelis. They're given money, they're
given weapons, they're given political
support, and then this war will wage
over water forever.
forever.
Okay? And this how you destroy Iran and
make sure Iran is no longer a viable
threat to you. That is the
plan of the Americans.
Okay? As As you can see,
it's pretty evil plan. And that's why
they have not announced it.
Right? Because
if you announce it, you're like, "Why
are you doing this? What did the
Persians What did they really ever do to
you to warrant you coming and destroying
their civilization?" And the answer is nothing.
nothing.
Right? So, the Americans and Israelis
will never admit they're doing this, but
if you look at the
map of war supply of ethnic
ethnic
tensions, this is the optimal game
theory strategy for them to use against
Iran. It doesn't make sense. This is a
long-term plan that they have in place.
It's all moving towards this plan.
But, now the question then is, how can
the Iranians respond to this?
And the answer is this.
this.
This is the map of the Muslim world. Okay?
Okay?
So, the um
um
light green
are the Sunni people. Okay? That's 90%
of the entire Muslim population, about 2
2 billion people. Okay?
Then you have in dark green the Shia.
So, as you can see,
the main
place of the Shia is Iran. Okay? Iran is
one of the few Shia nations in the
world. But, you can also see from this
map that Shia are spread throughout the world.
world. Okay?
Okay?
And so, the first thing
that the Iranians want to do is create a
jihad to unite all the Shia against
American empire.
All right? So, what they want to do is
It's already happening, guys. Um
Um
the Shia in Pakistan stormed the
American embassy in Pakistan. And the
Americans killed a lot of people. Okay?
The Shia have have attacked the American
embassy in Iraq.
The American embassy
uh are are being attacked in a lot of places.
places.
All right? So, the first strategy is to
create a international global jihad
of the Shia against the American empire.
It's already happening. It will continue
for a long long term, long time because
the Americans have killed the other
um caliphate.
Okay? And that requires vengeance.
The other thing though is that
it can unify
the Muslim world.
Okay? If you look at this map,
most of the Muslim world is actually run
by dictatorships that are not popular at
all, okay?
And they're allowed to exist because of
the American empire. Right? You go to
Saudi Arabia, Egypt,
Algeria. Uh
these places, they're all run by clients
of American empire.
Right? So, if you rally the people who
hate their governments and you overthrow them,
them,
then that makes Iran
the leader of the the Islamic world. Not
just Shia world, but the Islamic world.
This creates something called Pax Islamica.
That is the end goal, guys. Okay?
If you do that, then you don't have to
worry about the Americans and Israelis anymore.
anymore.
All right? So, the Israeli game plan,
the American game plan is to fracture
Iran into the ethnic enclaves and
they'll fight over water for the rest of
their lives and they'll die.
The Iranian game plan is to create a
religious war, a crusade that unifies
the Shia people that overthrows the
American empire and establish something
called a Pax Islamica.
All right?
All right. So,
So, again,
again,
All right?
So, the game plan is this. You have to
destroy the GCC. Why? Because the GCC is
the linchpin
of the American empire.
So, what the GCC
does is it sells oil
sells oil and then for US dollars.
Where does it put US dollars? It puts US
dollars into the American stock market.
All right, so this this is investments
of the UAE, okay, Saudi Arabia, and
Kuwait into
the US financial markets. As you can see
up to today,
it's been exploding.
All right? Because the US financial
market is one of the safest places where
you can put your money.
The intention is this. The intention is,
"Hey, if I cut off oil
and these countries no longer have
access to US dollars, they're forced to
spend whatever resources they have on
protecting themselves, okay?"
And then guess what happens? The stock
market collapses.
The stock market collapses, the stock
market is the real growth engine of the
US economy, the entire US economic
collapses with it.
All right? There are about maybe seven
companies in
uh America that accounts for about a
quarter of stock market growth, okay?
These seven countries These seven uh
companies, of course, are all AI
companies. Nvidia, um
um um
um
Microsoft, Google, Apple, okay? These
are the companies. But and then these
companies are heavily invested in by the
GCC nations. So, if these nations are no
long longer able to invest in the stock
market, these companies will collapse in value.
value.
And with that, that would lead to
economic depression in America.
Okay, does that make sense?
All right. So, that is the situation for
today. Today was just an overview, guys,
okay? I know we covered a lot. I know
there's a lot to take in,
but over the next few weeks, we will
explore each issue
um in depth and really understand what's
really going on, okay?
Any questions about what we've just learned?
Um if other countries such as Italy,
France, China, or Russia, they have
also joined this war, like, what's the
cause of they join the war? Because of
Okay.
That's a good question, okay? So, I
don't spend too much time on this
question because we will explore this
question as we move along,
So, the question is, what brings the
world into this conflict?
And the easy answer is
um just oil access, energy access, okay?
They need to protect their energy
supplies. Because, remember,
uh it's a very complicated situation
because Europe is now fighting Russia.
So, so Europe is not buying any oil
resources, energy resources from Russia.
They therefore depends a lot on the on
the GCC. So, if the GCC is not providing
them energy, then the Europe will go
bankrupt. Okay? So, Europe needs to
enter this war on behalf of Americans.
Okay? And then you have Russia, which
cannot allow Iran to fall because if
Iran falls, then they'll come after
Russia next.
All right? China is actually neutral.
China's okay with either scenario.
But that's just the way that the Chinese
system is set up, okay? So, we're going
to explore this question as we move
along, but it's a very complicated issue.
issue.
All right?
Okay? And each nation will have its own
different strategic interests to consider.
consider.
All right? And what we need to know what
we we we need to figure out is that
this war
in the Middle East is actually connected
to the to the Ukraine war. And then as
we move along, I'll show you how these
two two things connect together. Okay?
Okay?
Okay, great. So,
um we'll continue this discussion on
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