This content analyzes potential plotlines for George R.R. Martin's The Winds of Winter, focusing on character movements, political machinations, and potential conflicts across Westeros, while emphasizing the complexity and multiple possible outcomes of the narrative.
Mind Map
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Welcome to the second installment of my Winds of Winter predictions mega-videos,
in which I analyze every plotline to be featured in the upcoming book that
may or may not ever be published. My first video covered every plotline in the North of Westeros,
including Jon Snow’s death & resurrection, Stannis Baratheon’s Battle of Ice,
and much more. These videos can be watched in any order, so I hope you enjoy both of them. The third
and final installment will be my Grand Unified Daenerys Theory video, coming later in 2024.
Keep in mind as you’re watching that my purpose here isn’t to convince you that TWOW will play
out exactly how I think it might, but rather to illustrate how complex George Martin’s narrative
is, and how many different outcomes there can be. I am surely wrong about most of this; I just
think it’s fun to remind ourselves where things are heading in the future of Ice & Fire.
First, let’s look at this map of Westeros and recall where everyone is at the start of The Winds
of Winter. In King’s Landing, we have Cersei and Margaery awaiting their trials. Tommen is King,
Kevan and Pycelle are dead, and the High Sparrow is a self-righteous butt. The
small council looks like this. Oh, and Varys is living inside the walls.
In the Riverlands, Genna Lannister and Emmon Frey hold Riverrun, accompanied by the singer
and undercover member of the Brotherhood Without Banners, Tom O’Sevens. Brienne of
Tarth leads Jaime Lannister to the Brotherhood, where Lady Stoneheart plans to kill him.
Edmure Tully is being escorted by Ser Forley Prester to be put
under house arrest at Casterly Rock. Jeyne Westerling, the widowed queen of Robb Stark,
travels with them, heading home to the Crag. In the Reach, Willas Tyrell holds Highgarden with
the help of his brother Garlan and his grandmother Olenna. The Ironborn, led by Euron Greyjoy,
are raiding near Oldtown. The Redwyne fleet was just saved at Dragonstone by Loras Tyrell,
meaning they will sail against Euron in TWOW. In Oldtown, Leyton Hightower has been up in his
high tower for a decade. Sam Tarly studies at the Citadel with Sarella Sand (undercover
as a boy named Alleras) and Jaqen H’ghar (undercover as Pate).
In Dorne, Doran Martell schemes against the Lannisters. He sends Myrcella Baratheon to
King’s Landing with Lady Nymeria, a sand snake who will take her father Oberyn’s place on the Small
Council. Her sister Tyene heads there as well, planning to infiltrate the Great Sept of Baelor
and see what she can do with the High Sparrow. Obara Sand, Areo Hotah, and Ser Balon Swann of the
Kingsguard ride for High Hermitage, hunting down Gerold “Darkstar” Dayne, the most dangerous man in
Dorne, for his attack on Princess Myrcella. Storm’s End has already fallen to Aegon Targaryen,
who leads the Golden Company with Jon Connington, who is in the early stages of a futile battle with
Greyscale. Mace Tyrell leads his army south from King’s Landing to retake Storm’s End,
but that probably won’t happen. Hidden away up in the Vale, we have
Sansa Stark (undercover as Alayne Stone) with the ever-scheming Littlefinger. Will she marry
Harold Hardying, the heir of Robin Arryn? Who will find out she’s a daughter of the North?
We’ll begin with the trials of the queens in King’s Landing, since they’re likely to happen
very early in TWOW. In the ADWD epilogue, Cersei’s trial is scheduled five days away, and it will be
a Trial by Combat, with Ser Robert Strong as her champion. Robert Strong is undoubtedly the
zombified corpse of Gregor Clegane reanimated by Qyburn. Standing at least 8 feet tall with
legs as thick as trees, Robert Strong will be impossible to take down. The biggest question
of Cersei’s trial is not its outcome - Cersei will survive; she needs to survive for Maggy the Frog’s
prophecy to come true, if you believe in all that. All of Cersei’s children must die before her,
and then Cersei will be killed by the younger brother. The biggest question of her trial is
who the Faith will choose as their champion. The most likely option is Lancel Lannister,
the man who Cersei committed some light treason with in the earlier books. Lancel is a Sparrow of
the Faith, trained in combat, and this would be a fitting conclusion to his character - killed in a
Trial by Combat after atoning for his sins by the champion of the woman who swayed him into
committing those sins in the first place. It’s also crucial to consider that the High
Sparrow doesn’t want Cersei to lose. If Cersei loses the Trial by Combat, that means the Gods
have deemed her guilty of incest, meaning that Tommen is illegitimate, meaning that his decree
to re-arm the Faith Militant is no longer valid. If Tommen and Myrcella are proven to be bastards,
it also means Stannis (a R’hllor worshipper) is the rightful king. The High Sparrow wants none
of this, so the Faith has a vested interest in losing Cersei’s trial. Lancel is no match
for Gregor Clegane, especially with his wound from the Blackwater that never healed properly,
so the Faith will get what they want - a Cersei victory and a young, easily-brainwashed king.
The narrative outcome of Cersei’s trial will be the revelation to the world that Gregor
Clegane is not truly dead. There aren’t many 8 foot tall people in the world,
and people suspect Robert is Gregor already, so the ruse will be exposed. Nymeria and Tyene Sand
will witness firsthand Cersei Lannister’s lie. The Sand Snakes are very keen on murdering all
the Lannisters, children included, and once they realize that Gregor Clegane,
the man who brutally killed their aunt and her children, is still somewhat alive… Tommen
is surely a goner. So whose hand will kill him, Nymeria’s or Tyene’s? Nymeria is a strong fighter,
while Tyene is a soft-spoken poisoner. She studied poison at the Citadel, just like her
father Oberyn, and if she gets inside the Great Sept in King’s Landing, Tyene might have access to
items capable of hiding poison. The High Sparrow said he is going to bless Tommen with the holy
oil. If Tyene poisons it, this is an efficient way to kill both Tommen and the High Sparrow,
sending King’s Landing into even more chaos. Or, Tyene might become one of the septas who are
the only people allowed to see Cersei. This will give her intimate access to the royal apartments,
and a chance to poison Tommen. Before Tommen’s death, though,
Queen Margaery’s trial will take place. She stands accused of adultery and high treason. Her father
Mace Tyrell (the Hand of the King) brought an army to King’s Landing, as did Randyll Tarly. However,
the case against Margaery is very weak. Osney Kettleblack admitted it was Cersei,
not Margaery, he slept with. Kevan Lannister tells Mace that, “No man doubts your daughter's
innocence,” and the High Sparrow himself admits the case against the Tyrell girls is weak.
So both Cersei’s and Margaery’s trials will happen soon and will be over very
quickly. We actually already know Margaery will be found innocent. Aegon Targaryen
and the Golden Company are taking Storm’s End, and Mace Tyrell says that, “I shall recapture it
after my daughter's innocence is proved.” Well, in an Arianne Martell sample chapter for TWOW,
Mace Tyrell appears to be heading down to Storm’s End to deal with the Golden
Company. If he’s left King’s Landing, it must mean Margaery was already proven innocent.
We’ll talk more about Cersei, her children, and King’s Landing later in the video.
Doran Martell is the grass that hides the viper. The viper used to be his brother, Oberyn,
as the two Martells planned vengeance against the Lannisters for many years. Now, Doran is left with
Oberyn’s daughters (the Sand Snakes) and his own daughter (Arianne). At the beginning of the TWOW,
here is where Dorne stands: Nymeria and Tyene are going to King’s Landing with Myrcella, Obara is
hunting Darkstar, and Arianne is trying to meet Aegon Targaryen. Quentyn was killed in Meereen
(cooked by a very angry dragon) so Doran sits in Sunspear wondering when his son will return,
and if he’ll bring Daenerys and her dragons with him. So the biggest question for the
Martells is who to support: surely not the Lannisters, but will they wait for Daenerys,
or pledge their spears to Aegon? In her Winds of Winter sample chapters,
Arianne makes it to Griffin’s Roost, where Haldon Halfmaester informs her that Aegon has taken
Storm’s End. So, Arianne plans to go there and meet Aegon herself. “I sail to beard the dragon
in its den.” If Arianne trusts Aegon’s ability to defeat the Lannisters, she will give him Dorne,
perhaps sealed with a marriage pact. First, I don’t think the battle between Mace
Tyrell and the Golden Company will actually happen. Mace doesn’t really do battles - he
prefers to sit in a tent and feast while his army lays siege to a castle. If he speaks with
Aegon and Jon Connington, Mace can find common cause with them. The Tyrells have no reason
to continue supporting the Lannisters after Tommen’s death, since that means
Margaery Tyrell is no longer Queen. So if Tyene poisons Tommen before Mace reaches Storm’s End,
that opens the door for the Reach to join Aegon. Even if Tommen’s death doesn’t occur until later,
Jon Connington might explain to Mace Tyrell that they already have friends in the Reach.
“The power of Highgarden may not be what Mace Tyrell imagines.” This is said by Laswell Peake,
an exile of House Peake in the Reach. Team Aegon may very well have connections to families all
over the Reach, so if Mace Tyrell wants to choose the winning side, he’ll join Aegon.
We also need to consider Euron Greyjoy - he’s planning an attack on Oldtown and the
Reach. Mace Tyrell and Aegon Targaryen have a common enemy in Euron. Lastly,
the Tyrells are historically Targaryen loyalists - they were raised to Lord Paramount of the Reach
by Aegon the Conqueror, and they supported Aerys and Rhaegar during Robert’s Rebellion.
Mace Tyrell may try to seal the deal by marrying Margaery to Aegon, if Tommen dies in time. But
Arianne might offer her own hand to Aegon for Dorne’s support. But Aegon might want to keep
himself open to marry Daenerys, whenever she comes. The marriage situation will be messy,
but Aegon, Mace, and Arianne will all realize that their best chance to accomplish their goals is by
doing it together. Aegon wants the Iron Throne, but lacks the numbers for battle - the Reach and
Dorne will help. Mace wants his daughter to be Queen, and to defend the Reach from Euron - Aegon
and Dorne will help. And Dorne wants vengeance for the deaths of Elia and her children - who better
to support than the son of Elia himself? Doran Martell always planned for a marriage
to secure the Targaryen Restoration. Originally, Viserys was meant to marry Arianne. When Viserys
died, the plans changed: Daenerys would marry Quentyn. If Doran receives word that Quentyn was
burned by Dany’s dragons, the plan may change once more: forget Daenerys, and wed Arianne
to Aegon. Although… Arianne doesn’t want to be Queen consort. She has no interest in the “feast
and frolics” aspect of royalty - wouldn’t she rather rule Dorne than be Aegon’s consort? Also,
unlike with Viserys and Daenerys, Aegon already shares blood with the Martells, as he claims to be
the son of Elia. So Dorne should want him on the Iron Throne regardless of a marriage pact. This
is what Jon Connington is counting on - Dorne will help Aegon because his mother was Elia Martell. In
Jon's letter to Doran Martell, he says, “In her name I turn to Dorne. Do not forsake us.”
Whoever Aegon decides to marry (if he chooses anyone at all), he was raised to believe that
a king’s duty is to put his people first. The people of the Reach come before his
desire to take the Iron Throne, so I do think Aegon’s host will go west after Storm’s End,
joined by the Tyrells and the Martells. Mace Tyrell travels at the head of his army,
while Dorne has two armies at the ready. As they travel further west, the lords of the Reach will
rise for Aegon, either because they’re the “friends in the Reach” GRRM mentioned
twice, or because Aegon is coming to their aid against the Ironborn invasion.
Euron’s plan of attack hasn’t been revealed yet. We know that his fleet is currently trolling in
the Redwyne Straits and along the Dornish coast. But the bulk of the Iron Fleet sailed east for
Meereen with Victarion, and they’ve suffered losses in the North since Balon rebelled.
The Redwyne fleet is the largest fleet in Westeros, with over 200 warships and over
1000 non-warships. We don’t know how many ships were lost when they attacked Dragonstone. Stannis
left 1,500 men to garrison the island, but Cersei thinks there is only a “small garrison” there,
and that an army of 2,000 men should be enough to take the island. Regardless,
we learn in TWOW Arianne II that the Redwyne Fleet has already left Dragonstone and has sailed past
the Stepstones - they’ll meet Euron relatively soon. We also know that Leyton Highower’s sons
are moving down the Whispering Sound, hoping to attack Euron from the rear. We don’t have an
exact count of Euron’s ships - we’re just told that hundreds of ships have been harassing the
region around Oldtown and the Arbor. It sounds like Euron will be outnumbered
by the Redwynes and Hightowers, but he might have a different tactic in mind. Recall that
during the Greyjoy Rebellion, Victarion’s Iron Fleet was destroyed by Stannis Baratheon in the
narrow channel of water between Fair Isle and the Westerlands coast. Stannis’s fleet
attacked him from both the north and the south. If Euron’s ships are located in the Redwyne Straits,
that’s a similarly disadvantageous position. Lord Redwyne could maneuver around his island
and attack Euron from both the west and the east. Hightower ships could attack
from the north. To avoid defeat, Euron might be planning a little bit of blood magic.
In ASOIAF, krakens are attracted to blood. When the Ironborn fought each other for control after
Aegon the Conqueror killed Harren Hoare, it was said that the water between the islands
was filled with so much blood that it attracted krakens. Varys mentions a kraken sighting in book
3 near the Fingers; it attacked an Ibbanese whaling ship, probably drawn to the blood
of a whale. In TWOW Arianne I, krakens were spotted near the Broken Arm of Dorne, as there
were corpses and blood in the water there. One of Euron’s men says that, “Words are wind,
but blood is power. We have given thousands to the sea …” Euron is making sacrifices to
the Drowned God to summon a kraken, but it doesn’t stop there. In The Forsaken,
a Winds of Winter sample chapter from Aeron Greyjoy’s POV, Euron ties his brother and Falia
Flowers to the prow of ships. He probably intends to sacrifice them for their king’s blood. Aeron
Greyjoy is the brother of two kings, and Falia Flowers is pregnant with King Euron’s child.
In his fires, Red Priest Moqorro sees “A tall and twisted thing with one black eye and ten
long arms, sailing on a sea of blood.” Euron’s eye - his blood eye - is called
“a black eye shining with malice” by Theon, and during his Shade of the Evening trip,
Aeron sees Euron as a squid-human hybrid, a monster fathered by a kraken of the deep. So the
tall tentacled one-black-eyed thing that Moqorro saw sailing on a sea of blood might be Euron.
If his blood sacrifice works, and the corpses of his enemies attract krakens,
and the power is even greater with Aeron’s and Falia’s baby’s king’s blood, then Euron
could actually defeat the Redwynes despite his smaller numbers. In fact, he might even let
his own ships burn in the chaos just so he can win the battle - Aeron has a vision of Ironborn
ships ablaze on a boiling blood-red sea. Another clue that Euron will defeat the Redwynes
is that Mace Tyrell thinks he will lose. He says the Redwynes will sweep Euron from the seas,
the snow or the Boltons will defeat Stannis, and Jon Connington is toast as well. But Mace Tyrell
is often very wrong; he made the wrong choice with Margaery and Renly, and then again with Joffrey,
and probably once more with Tommen. Oberyn Martell called him a fool, and his own
mother calls him an oaf. By all accounts, Mace Tyrell is not a smart man, so if he thinks Euron
will lose, Euron will probably win. After destroying the Redwyne fleet and leaving
the sea in bloody carnage, Euron will descend upon Oldtown. Leyton Hightower is up in his high tower,
and apparently hasn’t left for over a decade. Some people think he’s up there with his daughter,
Melora the Mad Maid, learning about spells and looking through glass candles. More practically,
Baelor Hightower has built warships, Gunthor Hightower patrols the harbor, Garth Hightower
is training soldiers, and Humfrey Hightower went to Lys to hire sellswords. By the way,
Doran Martell hears about a ship carrying an army that departs from Lys and sails towards
Westeros - could this be Humfrey Hightower and his sellswords, or is it just the Golden Company?
Oldtown will be well-defended against Euron, whose power is greater at sea,
not fighting on land. Because of this, maybe Euron’s plan isn’t to battle the Hightower army,
sack the city, and lay siege to the Hightower. Maybe he wants to cause just enough distraction
so that he can infiltrate the Citadel. In the Citadel, Sam Tarly studies with Pate
and Alleras. Alleras is Saralla backwards; Sarella Sand is another daughter of Oberyn,
and she’s undercover as a boy called Alleras so she can study at the Citadel - women aren’t
allowed. Pate used to be a novice at the Citadel as well. In the prologue of book 4, he meets an
Alchemist who wants to buy a key that Pate stole - this key can open any door in the Citadel. The
Alchemist says he is a stranger. No one. He kills Pate and takes the key, and later in the book,
Sam Tarly meets a fellow student called Pate. Clearly, the Alchemist was a Faceless Man who
stole Pate’s face and identity. This Faceless Man is likely Jaqen H’ghar. His appearance in
the prologue matches his appearance the last time he saw Arya. A scar on his right cheek,
a hooked nose, and curly black hair. So what is Jaqen looking for at the Citadel?
There’s a vault beneath the Citadel containing a book. This book is called either Blood
and Fire or The Death of Dragons. Tyrion says it’s anonymous and soaked in blood,
and the only surviving copy lives in this vault beneath the Citadel. Given its title, perhaps the
book contains lore about dragons, and how to kill them. Jaqen H’ghar is a Faceless Man from Braavos,
a city founded by escaped slaves of Valyria. The very first Faceless Man gave the gift of death to
a slave in Valyria. I wonder if it’s a coincidence that the world is learning about Daenerys and her
dragons around the same time a Faceless Man infiltrates the Citadel and then we see Tyrion
mention this dragon book at the Citadel. Maybe Jaqen H’ghar will use the master key he took
from the original Pate, and he’ll read The Death of Dragons. What if he’s not the only one?
Euron has been to Valyria, and ideologically, he models himself after the Freehold. He has a suit
of Valyrian steel armor. He has a Valyrian horn called Dragonbinder, and plans to use
it to bind one of Dany’s dragons to his will. He even dabbles in sorcery and slavery. He’s
fascinated by Daenerys as well, and wants to marry her. “When the kraken weds the dragon,
let all the world beware.” What if Euron is after this same book in the Citadel? Maybe he thinks it
will teach him how to bond with a dragon, or how to slay a dragon if need be.
In the AFFC drafts, glass candles were involved in the prologue. Thanks to an ASOIAF fan named
Gsteff, who went to the Cushing Library in Texas and read drafts of AFFC, we know
that the Alchemist (Jaqen H’ghar) was originally looking for a glass candle,
not the master key. We know there are at least four glass candles in the Citadel,
and we know what they can do. But in George’s draft, glass candles also granted immortality
to the person bonded to it. So maybe Euron is also interested in one of the Citadel’s glass candles,
but we don’t know how big of a role they’ll play moving forward. After all, Gsteff reports that
“George is starting to lose confidence in the whole concept” of them. If Euron acquires a
glass candle, it connects to a dream Dany has of a man with blue lips whose manhood is cold
as ice. This is the way her dream was published, but in the draft, Dany mentions this man having a
“twisted blade.” A twisted blade is the same way George describes a glass candle that Sam sees.
So in the drafts, glass candles give their user immortality. And Dany has a dream of a man very
similar to Euron having a glass candle. In the published book, immortality is not mentioned,
and the “twisted blade” aspect of Dany’s dream is left out. Will Euron still obtain a glass
candle? Will he use it to visit Dany, perhaps in some weird magical type of phone sex?
I think it’s more likely that Euron is after this book than a glass candle, since he might already
have a glass candle. In Qarth, Dany hears that a glass candle is burning in the house of Urrathon
Night-Walker. We’re told Euron’s been to Qarth, and we know that Urrathon is a historical Ironborn
name, and “Night-Walker” could refer to the heavy use of Shade of the Evening. Someone who uses
it might be called a “Night-Walker.” Urrathon Goodbrother IV was nicknamed “Badbrother,” and
Euron has killed three of his own brothers. Maybe he chose the alias Urrathon with that in mind. So
there’s a chance Urrathon is actually Euron, he already has a glass candle,
and doesn’t need one from the Citadel. If you’re interested in more Iron Islands theories, I put
some great write-ups in the description. So maybe Euron wants something in the Citadel,
or maybe he wants to learn whatever magic Leyton and Malora Hightower know. There’s talk around
the region that Leyton is consulting books of spells with his daughter, who they call the Mad
Maid. People say they’ve been up there for 10 years straight - what’re they doing? The AFFC
appendix says that some Hightowers have dabbled in alchemy, necromancy, and other sorcerous arts.
Given their close relationship to the Citadel, maybe the Hightowers have a glass candle of
their own. Maybe Leyton and Malora have been using it to spy on Euron, preparing themselves
for his attack. If so, who else could they be watching? Do they know about the army of the dead
up North? Do they know what Dany’s up to? Euron doesn’t seem interested in acquiring more
territory just for the sake of it. His brother Balon invaded the North, hoping to expand his
kingdom. But after Euron takes the Shield Islands, he says he has no interest in holding them. They
already served their purpose, and Euron proved his power by taking them. Maybe it’s
the same with Oldtown. Euron doesn’t care about conquering the city and making it his. Instead,
while his men distract the Oldtown defenses, Euron will find whatever he’s looking for,
and once he’s done, he’ll leave. Euron wants chaos, and Sam Tarly thinks that,
“If King's Landing loses Oldtown and the Arbor, the whole realm will fall to pieces.”
I think that by the time Euron defeats the Redwyne fleet, attacks Oldtown, and steals whatever he’s
looking for in there, that gives Aegon enough time to arrive just as he’s leaving. Aegon and
the Golden Company have 10,000 men, although half of them were scattered in the sea and are
slowly making their way back to Aegon. Garlan Tyrell will probably have over 20,000 men. Mace
Tyrell has an army with him, as well as the two Dornish armies in the Boneway and Prince’s Pass.
The point is - any land battle between Euron and Aegon would result in Euron losing.
So I think Euron will leave before Aegon arrives. He’ll disappear back onto the Silence,
waiting to strike somewhere else. Aegon can clean up the remaining Ironborn on land and return peace
to Oldtown. The optics of this are interesting. A Targaryen king saves the city, fighting alongside
Dorne and the Tyrells. The Reach and Dorne are untouched by the War of the Five Kings,
which means Aegon has a very strong army. With Tywin and Kevan Lannister dead, Cersei shamed
and a little crazy, and the king being an 8-year old who many think is a bastard anyways - the
Reach will side with Aegon. They’re even more likely to declare for him if Tommen is killed,
removing Margaery Tyrell’s queenhood. Aegon lands with an army to conquer his
birthright. He comes to Oldtown, just like the first Aegon. I think TWOW will
have dual coronations midway through. Aegon can be crowned in the Starry Sept of Oldtown
after driving the Ironborn back into the sea, echoing the coronation of Aegon the Conqueror,
who was famously crowned in the Starry Sept. And Myrcella Baratheon can be crowned
in King’s Landing after Tommen’s death. Euron and Aegon mirror each other, which is why I
think they’re such fascinating adversaries. Aegon is an archetypal hero; suddenly arriving to save
the day from the wicked Lannisters and reclaim his family’s throne. Euron is an archetypal villain;
suddenly arriving to take the Iron Islands and sow chaos in the South. Both Aegon and
Euron want to marry Daenerys; she would give Aegon strength and more legitimacy, whereas
she would give Euron dragons he can unleash on the world. They also both have blue features;
Euron’s lips are stained blue from Shade of the Evening, and Aegon dyes his hair blue to hide the
silver underneath - although, now he’ll want to show his true Targaryen self to the world.
It’s hard to predict Euron, but I imagine he’ll continue raiding the Reach. Sam worries about
Horn Hill, his family’s castle. It should be far enough from the water to be safe from Ironborn,
he thinks, so it would be ironic if Euron goes there. Randyll Tarly is in King’s Landing,
so Euron has a chance. The Ironborn see the Reach as the ripest fruit in Westeros,
untouched by the war. By weakening the Reach, Euron gives himself more opportunity. If he
is this apocalyptic threat who wants to become the harbinger of the Long Night,
then weakening the richest kingdom is a smart move. Or, if he has more political ambitions,
a weakened Reach means fewer swords fighting against him when he moves for the Iron Throne.
Although… George Martin makes a point that sorcery is a sword without a hilt. There
is no safe way to grasp it. If Euron tries to grasp it, it may be his downfall. So whatever
destructive bloodmagic ritual Euron’s planning for Oldtown may be the death of him. Personally,
I’m in favor of a kraken eating him. So there’s one possibility for what the south
of Westeros will be doing in the meantime before Dany comes home. Aegon will gather alliances,
Tommen will be killed as revenge by the Sand Snakes, Aegon will fight Euron all over the Reach,
and Myrcella will become Queen… for a little while. I’ll talk about the
rest of the King’s Landing plot in the Daenerys video later this year.
Sansa Stark is in the Vale undercover as Alayne Stone. Here’s her cover story: Alayne is the
bastard daughter of Petyr Baelish and a woman from Braavos. The woman died giving birth,
but entrusted Alayne to the Faith. However, Alayne decided not to become a septa and
instead sought out her father, Littlefinger. Now, Lysa Arryn is dead and Alayne has descended
the Eyrie to attend a tournament. Littlefinger essentially blackmails Alayne to keep his murder
of Lysa a secret; he says that should anyone find out, Alayne would be accused as well.
So Littlefinger teaches Sansa how to lie; she disguises herself as Alayne and frames Marillion
the singer for Lysa’s murder. She’s not great at it, though, and in fact there are people in the
Vale who might know her secret identity. When Brienne of Tarth was searching for Sansa
in the Riverlands, she met a hedge knight called Ser Shadrich, or the Mad Mouse. He was
looking for Sansa too, because the reward for her capture is a hefty bag of gold.
Shadrich fought for King Stannis at the Blackwater, but he was captured and had to
pay his own ransom. It cost him all his money, so he’s extremely financially motivated to find Sansa
and return her to Cersei for the bounty. Well, Shadrich is now in the Vale, and he meets
Alayne Stone. He tells Alayne that, “A good melee is all a hedge knight can hope for,
unless he stumbles on a bag of dragons.” It just so happens Shadrich did stumble on a
bag of dragons - if he can kidnap Sansa and cash in on the gold. Shadrich is currently
working for Littlefinger, so if he knows who Alayne really is, maybe he’ll just keep quiet,
and find a way to extort Baelish for more money, and then Baelish will have him killed because
he knows too much. Or maybe Shadrich will try to kidnap Alayne at the tourney, which would probably
reveal her identity; why would a hedge knight try to kidnap Littlefinger’s bastard daughter unless
he sought a larger prize? So this is one way Sansa’s identity could be revealed in TWOW.
It’s also likely that Myranda Royce knows. She spills some Westerosi tea with Sansa,
saying there’s a new high septon and a new Lord Commander on the Wall, some bastard boy of Eddard
Stark. This catches Alayne off guard, and she blurts out: “Jon Snow?” How would a bastard
girl who lived her whole life training to become a septa learn the name of Ned Stark’s bastard son?
Even Myranda didn’t know, and she meets lots of people traveling through the Gates of the Moon,
and she keeps a lively household. Sansa isn’t very good at keeping her cover as Alayne,
and she thinks about Jon; “Oh, it would be so sweet, to see him once again.”
Two others who know are Lothor Brune and Oswell Kettleblack, knights in service to Littlefinger,
though he doesn’t think they’ll tell anyone. The risk isn’t worth the reward for them.
Sansa is only 13, but she’s been married once before and might be married again for
Littlefinger’s political schemes. Robin Arryn is a sickly child, even worse now that his mother Lysa
is dead, and he doesn’t seem long for this world. If Robin should die, either of natural causes
or with a little nudge into that sweet eternal sleep, his heir is a man called Harrold Hardyng,
or Harry the Heir. He’s Jon Arryn’s great-nephew, and the closest Arryn kin that Robin has.
Littlefinger has betrothed Alayne to Harry, but Harry has the choice of any girl he wants. Baelish
tells Alayne to “Charm him. Entrance him. Bewitch him.” After saving her from one unwanted marriage,
Littlefinger is putting Sansa in another. At first, Harry seems like a jerk who doesn’t
like that Alayne is a bastard, but he ends up apologizing and dancing with her. He’s
thoroughly charmed, and thinks Alayne is beautiful and clever. But Littlefinger says
their marriage would need to wait until Cersei is removed from power and Sansa Stark’s marriage to
Tyrion is officially dissolved. Then he’ll reveal Alayne’s true identity so she can wed Harry the
Heir and become Lady of the Vale. Maybe. But many people think Harry will die in the
tournament. There are some strong hints. He’s not exactly a renowned fighter in the Vale, rather an
upjumped squire. Sansa also wishes bad things on him after he insults her. She
once wished death and defeat upon both Janos and Morros Slynt, respectively,
and those came true. Maybe her magical Stark and Whent blood give Sansa the prescient power to
kill someone with just a prayer. Another hint of Harry’s impending doom is from The Hedge Knight,
where Harry’s ancestor Ser Humfrey Hardyng died in a tourney as well. History may repeat itself.
Sansa’s story is extremely open-ended and thus very hard to predict. Given that she’s
now down at the Gates of the Moon, where lots of people are traveling to from all over Westeros,
Sansa may learn about Ramsay Bolton marrying Arya Stark. Sansa had her differences with Arya,
but misses her and loves her. In her Winds preview chapter, Sansa remembers playing in the snow
with Jeyne and Arya. Sansa would be furious at Littlefinger for brokering the abusive marriage
between Ramsay and Arya, and even if Littlefinger tries to calm her down, and tells her it wasn’t
really Arya but instead a stewards daughter… well, Jeyne Poole was Sansa’s best friend.
This tourney was Sansa’s idea, not Littlefinger’s. If this is where she learns about Ramsay and Arya,
and finally turns against Littlefinger, it would show how Sansa has finally gained agency. Also,
there is a prophecy from the Ghost of High Heart about a maiden at a feast with venom dripping from
her hair. This is probably Sansa at the Purple Wedding, with the poison hidden in her hairnet.
The Ghost of High Heart also says, “I dreamt that maid again, slaying a savage giant in a castle
built of snow.” The savage giant might refer to Littlefinger, whose sigil is the giant Titan of
Braavos. And referring to Littlefinger as a giant is very Martin-esque; while he’s small in stature,
his power and political intrigue is giant. The castle built of snow could be the Eyrie - Sansa
literally thinks of it as “A honeycomb made of ice … a castle made of snow.” However, Sansa and
the court have already descended the Eyrie for the winter - they’re not planning to go back up there,
so how could Sansa kill Littlefinger there? So maybe the castle made of snow is Winterfell.
This could be how George gets Sansa back north. She learns about Arya/Jeyne’s marriage to Ramsay,
and forces Littlefinger to ride north to save her. He might only bring his personal sellswords,
but maybe he’ll join the war against the Boltons properly, and bring all the Knights of the Vale
with them. This Vale army could help Jon in his fight against either the Boltons or the Others,
depending on when they arrive. Sansa could reunite with Jon like she’s wanted to, and help him rule
the North for their little brother Rickon. The momentary calm before the cold, cold storm.
Regardless of what happens to Sansa, Littlefinger, and Harry the Heir,
I think we can be certain that Robin Arryn will survive. His poor health is constantly mentioned,
and Robin himself knows that people are waiting for him to die. George has a fondness
for cripples, bastards, and broken things, so I think Sweetrobin will live to see Spring.
The last time we saw Jaime Lannister was in his first and only chapter in A Dance
with Dragons. He lifted the siege at Raventree Hall and started traveling back to Riverrun.
He stopped in a village called Pennytree, where he got a surprise visit from Brienne
of Tarth. The last time they saw each other was in King’s Landing, when Jaime gifted
Brienne the Valyrian steel sword Oathkeeper, and charged her with keeping their oath to
Catelyn Stark and bringing Sansa to safety. Brienne spent the entirety of AFFC searching for
Sansa and coming up empty. However, she did find the Brotherhood Without Banners, led by
Lady Stoneheart, the revenge-zombie of Catelyn Stark. Stoneheart was going to hang Brienne
because she looks like a Lannister supporter, with Jaime’s golden sword and a letter from King Tommen
ensuring her safe travel. Stoneheart tells Brienne to choose between “sword” or “noose.” Noose means
she hangs, sword means she’ll help the Brotherhood kill Jaime. Her last chapter closes with the line,
“She screamed a word.” That word must have been “sword,” since Brienne pops up in Pennytree
and lures Jaime into the woods. Brienne tells him she’s found Sansa, but the Hound has her,
so she needs Jaime’s help to free her. Of course, that’s a lie, and Brienne is really bringing Jaime
face-to-face with Lady Stoneheart. Moments before Catelyn died, she saw Roose Bolton stab her son
and say, “Jaime Lannister sends his regards.” But I think it’s highly unlikely that Jaime
dies here. Only very recently did Jaime lose his identity as the greatest swordsman alive. He still
thinks he’ll wear the Kingslayer moniker until the day he dies, but his armorer says that he’ll
be called Goldenhand. Jaime hangs an outlaw even though he wore the crimson cloak of a Lannister,
and he thinks it felt good to do justice, and one day men might call him Goldenhand
the Just. George Martin has said this. So Martin still has work to do with Jaime’s
character. He needs to explore what Jaime can become after losing his identity, and he can’t
do that if Lady Stoneheart kills him. The Brotherhood has fallen according to Thoros
of Myr. He says they used to be all about justice when Beric Dondarrion was in charge,
but now they’ve lost their identity under the leadership of the vengeful Lady Stoneheart.
So the possibility of a mutiny is there. Will they side with Jaime and Brienne,
and turn their backs against Lady Stoneheart’s crusade against the Freys and Lannisters?
There are about 90 ways Jaime’s encounter with Stoneheart could end, so first I’ll just focus
on two popular theories: the Red Wedding 2.0 and the Northern journey. They’re not
