Effective investing relies on a simple, disciplined approach focused on three fundamental financial metrics that reveal a business's quality, safety, and valuation, rather than complex market analysis or chasing trends.
Mind Map
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Well, you know, I get asked all the
time, Warren, how do you decide what to
buy? People think there's some secret
formula locked away in Omaha or that you
need a team of analysts with fancy
spreadsheets. The truth is much simpler
than that. And that's what I want to
share with you today. After more than 70
years of buying businesses and stocks,
I've learned that you really only need
to look at three numbers. Just three.
Now, Wall Street would love for you to
believe it's complicated. They want you
watching screens, reading research
reports, chasing the latest trends. But
Charlie Munger and I, we've always
believed that investing should be simple
enough to explain to your neighbor over
the fence. Let me tell you a quick
story. Back in 1988, I bought my first
shares of Coca-Cola. Now, everyone told
me I was crazy. The stock had already
gone up. The market was expensive. There
were all these fancy new beverage
companies coming along. But I sat down
at my kitchen table, looked at three
numbers, and I knew this was a wonderful
business at a fair price. That
investment is now worth more than $20
billion for Berkshire Hathaway. Same
three numbers every single time. Now,
before I share these numbers with you,
let me be clear about something. I'm not
the smartest guy in the room. Never have
been. I'm 94 years old. I eat McDonald's
for breakfast. I drink five Cokes a day.
And I live in the same house I bought in
1958 for $31,500.
You don't need to be a genius to invest
well. You need to be disciplined. You
need to be patient. And you need to
focus on what matters. So, let's get
into it. The three numbers I check
before buying any stock. And I promise
you, by the end of this, you'll
understand exactly how to apply this
yourself. Number one, return on equity.
Now, that sounds fancy, but let me put
it in plain English. Return on equity or
ROE tells you how good a business is at
making money with the money shareholders
have already put in. Think of it this
way. Imagine you and your neighbor
decide to open a hamburger stand. You
each put in $10,000. That's your equity,
your ownership stake. Now, at the end of
the year, your hamburger stand makes
$4,000 in profit. You've got $20,000 of
equity. You made $4,000. That's a 20%
return on equity. 20% return on equity
means for every dollar you've invested
in the business, you're getting 20 cents
back in profit every single year. Now,
here's why this number matters so much.
If a company consistently earns high
returns on equity year after year after
year, that tells you something profound.
It tells you this business has what I
call an economic moat. It's got some
kind of competitive advantage, some
protection that keeps competitors from
eating away at those profits. Maybe it's
a brand that people love like CocaCola
or Apple. Maybe it's a network effect
where the product gets more valuable as
more people use it. Maybe it's lowcost
production that nobody can match.
Whatever it is, high return on equity
sustained over time is the fingerprint
of a wonderful business. When I look at
a company, I want to see return on
equity consistently above 15%.
Preferably 20% or higher. And I want to
see that not just for one year, but for
10 years, 15 years, 20 years. That's the
test. Let me give you a real example.
Seize Candies, a company Birkshire
bought back in 1972 for $25 million.
People thought we overpaid. But I looked
at the return on equity, and it was
north of 30%. Year after year, this
little candy company would take the
money we left in the business and turn
it into more money reliably,
predictably. Over the years, Se's
Candies has made us nearly $2 billion in
pre-tax earnings. From a $25 million
investment, that's the power of high
return on equity compounding over
decades. Now, contrast that with a
business that earns, say, five or 6% on
equity. You're barely keeping up with
inflation. You're not creating real
value. And usually those low returns
mean the business is in a commodity
industry where anybody can compete,
where there's no moat, no protection.
Those are the businesses I avoid. You
can find return on equity in any stock
screen or any financial website. It's
public information. But most investors
never look at it. They're too busy
watching the stock price bounce around.
The stock price tells you what other
people think. Return on equity tells you
what the business actually does. Number
two, debt to equity ratio. This one's
about safety. It's about making sure you
don't lose money. Remember rule number
one, never lose money. Rule number two,
never forget rule number one. Debt to
equity ratio tells you how much debt a
company is carrying relative to the
equity, the actual ownership value. Let
me go back to that hamburger stand. You
and your neighbor put in 10,000 each,
20,000 total equity. Now, let's say you
borrow another 20,000 from the bank to
expand. You've got 20,000 in debt,
20,000 in equity. That's a debt to
equity ratio of 1 one or 100%. Now,
here's the thing about debt. Debt is a
double-edged sword. When times are good,
debt can amplify your returns. You're
using borrowed money to make more money.
But when times get tough, when sales
drop, when the economy stumbles, debt
can kill you. Because debt doesn't care
if your business is struggling. The bank
wants its money back regardless. I've
seen so many good businesses destroyed
by too much debt. Companies that could
have survived a recession could have
weathered a storm. But they had so much
debt piled up that when cash flow slowed
down, they couldn't make the payments.
They went bankrupt. Shareholders got
wiped out. So when I look at a business,
I want to see a debt to equity ratio
that's manageable. For most companies, I
like to see it below 50%, ideally lower.
Now, there are exceptions, banks and
financial companies. They operate
differently. They're in the business of
borrowing and lending. But for a typical
operating company, a manufacturer, a
retailer, a tech company, low debt means
you've got a margin of safety. Let me
tell you about one of my biggest
mistakes. In the 1960s, I bought
Berkshire Hathaway. It was a textile
mill and it was cheap. Boy, was it
cheap, but it was a terrible business.
The textile industry was dying. There
was no competitive advantage and the
company was struggling under debt. I
thought I could turn it around. I was
wrong. I wasted years and millions of
dollars trying to save a business that
should have been shut down. That
experience taught me something
invaluable. A mediocre business with
debt is a disaster waiting to happen. A
wonderful business with little or no
debt is a fortress. Think about Apple.
When we started buying Apple back in
2016, people said, "Warren, you don't
understand technology." Maybe they were
right, but I understood the business.
And one thing I loved was that Apple had
very manageable debt relative to its
equity and its cash flow. In fact, Apple
was sitting on a mountain of cash.
That's the kind of balance sheet that
lets you sleep well at night. When
you're looking at stocks, pull up the
balance sheet. Look at total debt. Look
at shareholders equity. Do the simple
division. If the debt to equity ratio is
over 100%, be very careful. Ask
yourself, can this company handle a
downturn? What happens if sales drop by
20 or 30%, will they be able to pay
their bills? If the answer is no, walk
away. There are plenty of other
opportunities. Don't take unnecessary
risk. Number three, price toearnings
ratio. Or as I like to call it, what you
pay versus what you get. This is the
number that tells you whether a stock is
cheap, expensive, or fairly priced. Now,
let me be clear. Price matters. I don't
care how wonderful a business is. If you
overpay, you're going to get poor
returns. Price is what you pay. Value is
what you get. That's a lesson my mentor
Ben Graham taught me 70 years ago, and
it's just as true today. The price
toearnings ratio, PE ratio, is simple.
It tells you how many dollars you're
paying for every dollar of annual
earnings the company generates. Let's
say a company earns $5 per share, and
the stock is trading at $100. That's a
PE ratio of 20. You're paying $20 for
every $1 of earnings. Now, here's where
it gets interesting. A low PE ratio
might look like a bargain, but you have
to ask, why is it low? Is the business
dying? Is it in a terrible industry? Are
earnings about to collapse? Sometimes a
low PE is a value trap. It looks cheap,
but it deserves to be cheap. On the
other hand, a high PE ratio might be
justified if the business is growing
rapidly and has a long runway ahead. But
you've got to be careful. When PE ratios
get up into the 30s, 40s,50s, you're
paying for a lot of future growth, and
the future is uncertain. Let me tell you
what I look for. I want to buy wonderful
businesses at reasonable prices. For
most great companies, I'm comfortable
paying a PE ratio in the mid- teens to
low 20s. That's the sweet spot. If I can
find a business with high return on
equity, low debt, and a PE ratio under
20, I'm very, very interested. Now,
here's the thing. You have to look at
these three numbers together. They tell
a story. Return on equity tells you if
it's a good business. Debt to equity
tells you if it's a safe business. Price
to earnings tells you if it's a good
deal. All three have to check out. If
even one is off, I usually walk away.
Let me walk you through a real world
example. Let's look at Coca-Cola when I
bought it in 1988. Return on equity over
30%. Year after year after year. This
was a business that took shareholders
money and turned it into more money with
incredible efficiency. The brand was
unbeatable. The distribution was global.
The moat was a mile wide. Debt to equity
low. Coca-Cola didn't need to borrow
much. It generated so much cash from
operations that it could fund growth,
pay dividends, and still have money left
over. Safe? Absolutely. Price to
earnings. When I started buying, it was
around 15. Not dirt cheap, but
reasonable for a business of that
quality. I wasn't trying to steal it. I
was trying to buy a piece of a wonderful
business at a fair price. All three
numbers checked out. So, I bought and I
held and I held and I held. That's the
secret, by the way. Once you find a
wonderful business at a fair price, you
hold it. You let compound interest do
the work. Our favorite holding period is
forever. Now, let me address something I
know you're thinking. You're thinking,
Warren, what about growth? What about
innovation? What about all these
exciting new companies? Here's my
answer. Growth is wonderful if it's
profitable growth. But growth for the
sake of growth is foolish. I've seen so
many companies chase revenue without
caring about profitability. They spend
and spend and spend. They've got a great
story, the stock goes up, and then
reality sets in. and they can't make
money. They burn through cash. The story
falls apart. These three numbers keep
you grounded in reality. Return on
equity tells you if the growth is
actually profitable. Debt to equity
tells you if the growth is sustainable
or if they're borrowing their way to
disaster. Price to earnings tells you if
the market has gotten way ahead of
itself. Let me give you a counter
example. I famously passed on Google and
Amazon. A lot of people have asked me
about that over the years. And you know
what? They're right to ask. I missed two
of the greatest businesses of the last
25 years. Charlie jokes that I was
sucking my thumb while the world changed
around me. Why did I pass? Well, in the
early days, both companies were growing
like crazy, but they weren't yet
generating the kinds of returns on
equity that I look for. They were
investing heavily. They were building
infrastructure. And honestly, I didn't
fully understand their business models.
I stayed within my circle of competence,
and tech was outside that circle. Now,
does that mean my three number test
failed? No, it means I didn't apply it
correctly. Or more honestly, I didn't
see what those businesses would become.
By the time they had the return on
equity, the low debt, and the proven
business model, the stock price had
already run up. I was late. That's the
thing about investing. You're going to
miss opportunities. You're going to make
mistakes. What matters is that you don't
make catastrophic mistakes. You don't
lose money permanently. Which brings me
back to why these three numbers matter
so much. They protect you. They keep you
from chasing fads. They keep you from
overpaying. They keep you from buying
businesses that are going to blow up.
They give you a margin of safety. Now,
let me give you some practical advice on
how to use this. First, don't look at
just one year. Look at trends over 5
years, 10 years if you can. Is return on
equity getting better or worse? Is debt
going up or down? Are earnings growing
consistently or bouncing all over the
place? Second, compare the company to
its competitors. If one company in an
industry has a 25% return on equity and
another has 8%, ask yourself why. What's
the difference? That difference is the
moat. Third, be patient. You don't have
to swing at every pitch. In investing,
unlike baseball, there are no called
strikes. You can watch a 100 pitches go
by and wait for the one that's right in
your sweet spot. Wait for the fat pitch.
Wait for a company with high return on
equity, low debt, and a reasonable PE
ratio. When you find that combination,
buy it and hold it. Let me tell you one
more story before we wrap up. In the
early 1990s, American Express got into
trouble. There was a scandal involving
one of their subsidiaries. The stock got
hammered. People were scared. But I
looked at the numbers. Return on equity
still strong. The core business, the
card business was unaffected. Debt
manageable. Price to earnings. Now it
was cheap because everybody was
panicking. I bought heavily. And sure
enough, the scandal passed. The business
recovered and we made a lot of money. Be
fearful when others are greedy and
greedy when others are fearful. That's
what these three numbers let you do.
When everyone else is panicking and the
stock price is down, you can look at the
fundamentals and ask, "Is this still a
good business?" If return on equity is
still high, if debt is still low, then
the price drop might be a gift. That's
when you buy. Now, I want to be honest
with you. These three numbers won't make
you rich overnight. They won't help you
pick the next hot stock that doubles in
a month. That's not what this is about.
This is about building wealth slowly,
steadily over decades. This is about not
losing money. This is about compounding.
Compound interest is the eighth wonder
of the world. If you can earn 15 or 20%
a year on your money consistently for 20
or 30 or 40 years, you will get very,
very wealthy. Not by timing the market,
not by trading in and out, by owning
great businesses and letting them work
for you. So, here's my challenge to you.
Before you buy your next stock, pull up
the numbers. Look at return on equity
over the last 10 years. Look at the debt
to equity ratio right now. Look at the
price toearnings ratio. Ask yourself, is
this a wonderful business? Is it safe?
Is the price reasonable? If the answer
to all three is yes, you might have
found something worth owning for a very
long time. If the answer to anyone is
no, move on. There's always another
opportunity. Let me close with this.
Investing is not complicated. Wall
Street wants you to think it is because
if you knew how simple it was, you
wouldn't need them. But the truth is,
you can sit at your kitchen table, look
at three numbers, and make decisions as
good as any professional. You don't need
a Bloomberg terminal. You don't need to
watch CNBC all day. You don't need to
trade constantly. You need to find
wonderful businesses, buy them at fair
prices, and hold them. That's it. That's
the whole game. Return on equity, debt
to equity, price to earnings. Three
numbers. Simple but powerful. I've used
these three numbers to build Berkshire
Hathaway into one of the largest
companies in the world. I've used them
to make myself and my shareholders a lot
of money. And I'm telling you, you can
use them, too. Now, I'm not saying
you'll never make a mistake. I've made
plenty. But if you stick to these
principles, if you stay disciplined, if
you're patient, you will do well. You'll
sleep well at night. You'll avoid
catastrophic losses, and over time,
you'll build real wealth. So, go ahead,
pull up a stock you're interested in.
Look at the numbers. Apply the test. And
remember, you don't need to be
brilliant. You just need to be
disciplined. Thanks for listening. Now,
if you'll excuse me, I've got about 500
pages left to read today, and I'm only
94, so I'd better get to it. And
remember, if an old guy who eats
McDonald's every morning and drinks
Coca-Cola all day can figure this out,
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