Venezuela's decision to severely restrict oil exports to the United States signifies a fundamental shift in global power dynamics, demonstrating that smaller nations can leverage multipolarity to resist superpower coercion and assert their economic and political independence.
Mind Map
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Venezuela has just moved to severely
restrict oil exports to the United
States, cutting off a supply line that
American refineries have depended on for
decades. I'm John Mesheimer and I've
been arguing for years that the unipolar
moment is over, that American dominance
is not a permanent condition, that power
shifts, and when it does, the rules
change. What just happened with
Venezuela is not an anomaly. It's not
desperation. It's proof of everything
I've been saying about the structural
transformation of international
politics. This is a calculated strike at
the heart of a relationship built on
extraction, interference, and the
assumption that Caracus would always
bend to pressure. And what's happening
behind this decision is a complete
inversion of power dynamics that
Washington refuses to acknowledge. So,
let me explain to you using the
framework of offensive realism why this
matters, why it was inevitable, and why
it's just the beginning. To understand
why this moment is so crucial, we need
to go back to the late 1990s when Hugo
Chavez took power and began reshaping
Venezuela's relationship with its own
resources. For decades before Chavez,
Venezuela operated as a compliant oil
supplier to the United States. American
companies had significant control over
extraction. Refining contracts were
favorable to Washington. The profits
flowed northward while inequality
deepened in Caracus and beyond. This was
the model. Venezuela produced, America
consumed and the political class in
Caracus accepted the arrangement because
it kept them in power and kept the
system stable. This is what I call the
logic of hegemony. When you're the
dominant power in a region, you can
structure relationships to serve your
interests. Smaller states comply not
because they love you, but because the
costs of resistance are too high. Then
Chavez nationalized the oil industry. He
redirected revenues towards social
programs. He challenged the organization
of American states. He built alliances
with Cuba, with Russia, with China. and
Washington watched as a country it had
long considered within its sphere of
influence began to drift away. The
response was predictable. The United
States supported a coup attempt in 2002.
When that failed, it began funding
opposition groups, applying diplomatic
pressure, and isolating Venezuela in
international forums. But here's what's
interesting. The oil kept flowing. Even
as tensions grew, American refineries on
the Gulf Coast continued processing
hundreds of thousands of barrels of
Venezuelan heavy crude every single day.
Why? Because those refineries were built
for that specific type of oil. Switching
suppliers is not simple. It requires
infrastructure changes, new contracts,
and time. So, the relationship
continued, tense, but functional, held
together by mutual dependence. This is a
key concept in international relations.
Interdependence can constrain even great
powers. America needed Venezuelan oil
just as much as Venezuela needed
American markets. Then in 2017, the
sanctions era began. The Trump
administration imposed restrictions on
Venezuelan debt. Then it sanctioned the
state oil company PDVSA.
Then it froze billions of dollars in
Venezuelan assets held in American
banks. The Biden administration
continued the policy with only minor
adjustments. The goal was clear.
Collapse the Venezuelan economy, force
regime change, and reinstall a
government friendly to American
interests. Now, from a realist
perspective, this made a certain kind of
sense. If you can strangle a rival's
economy without firing a shot, why
wouldn't you? Economic coercion is
cheaper than military intervention and
carries fewer domestic political costs.
But there was a fundamental
miscalculation here and it's one I see
repeated over and over in American
foreign policy. The assumption was that
Venezuela had no choice. Without access
to American markets, without the ability
to use the dollar for transactions,
without international legitimacy,
Caracus would eventually capitulate.
This assumption was based on a unipolar
worldview. It assumed that America's
structural power was so overwhelming
that resistance was feudal. The
sanctions were devastating. Make no
mistake, oil production fell from over 3
million barrels per day to below 500,000
at the lowest point. Hyperinflation
destroyed savings. Millions fled the
country. International trade nearly
stopped. Yet the government in Caracus
survived. It adapted. It found new
buyers in China and India. It rebuilt
parts of its infrastructure with help
from Russia and Iran. And it waited.
This is what I mean when I talk about
the importance of understanding power transitions.
