0:02 after 2000 markets
0:04 let's see if i have made money or if
0:05 i've lost
0:07 have you ever noticed if you scroll down
0:09 to the bottom of the prices on betfair
0:11 you always tend to see tons of money
0:13 waiting to be matched at 101 well not
0:15 long after starting betfair trading i
0:17 noticed this i always wondered what is
0:19 going on surely all these people are
0:22 just losing money over and over again
0:23 not one glitter i started to watch
0:25 trading videos here on youtube and heard
0:27 people saying that long-term data
0:30 suggested that laying 101 was actually a
0:32 profitable strategy with the theory
0:34 being that the trader is going to lose a
0:36 large number of times but these small
0:38 losses will be outweighed by these big
0:40 wins you'll get every so often as a
0:43 naturalist skeptical person i was always
0:45 a little bit suspicious of this idea why
0:47 would odds of 101 be magically different
0:49 to any other odds odds of course
0:52 represent probability 99
0:54 in the case of 101 and surely if an
0:57 event is greater than 99 chance of
0:59 occurring then 101 should surely be back
1:01 value and oppositely just like any of
1:03 the odds if the probability of the
1:05 outcome occurring is less than 99 then
1:08 101 would in fact be lay value but this
1:10 isn't what i was hearing in youtube
1:12 videos it doesn't really explain why all
1:15 this money is waiting at 101 ready to be
1:17 matched could it really be that easy to
1:19 be profitable all you need to do is just
1:22 lay 101 over and over again at the end
1:24 of the day curiosity has got the better
1:26 of me which is why i'm making this video
1:28 to try to figure out the truth when i
1:30 first heard the rumors that lane at 101
1:32 was profitable in the long term i saw
1:33 that none of these people were actually
1:36 providing any evidence to prove that
1:38 this is true so i decided to search
1:39 through the depths of the internet to
1:41 see if i could find this data myself and
1:43 i didn't really find much but i did come
1:46 across some interesting data one article
1:48 i found on the website called the game
1:50 hunter honestly i have no idea how
1:53 reputable that source is but it was the
1:55 only data that i could find the data i
1:56 found was in fact for horse racing
1:59 trading and over a two year period 28
2:05 000 horses matched odds of 1.01 of these
2:09 387 went on to lose their race 387 out
2:12 of 28 000 might not sound like a lot but
2:15 if you had laid all of these 28 000
2:17 horses which are matched at odds of 101
2:19 and let's say we're using a hundred
2:21 pound stake so that's one pound my
2:22 ability for every single bet you would
2:25 lose just over 27 000 pounds on all the
2:28 horses which matched at 101 and went on
2:30 to win the race as they're expected to
2:33 do but the 387 horses which matched at
2:35 101 and went on to lose would actually
2:38 give you a profit of over thirty seven
2:40 thousand pounds well side note that's
2:42 assuming that using the standard two
2:44 percent commission model on bedford and
2:46 overall this strategy of weighing all
2:48 these 28 thousand horses would have
2:51 given you a total profit of just over
2:53 ten thousand pounds now that number
2:55 looks nice of course but let's not get
2:57 carried away here it's a couple of
2:59 things which raise concerns firstly as i
3:01 alluded to i'm not sure about the
3:03 credibility of this data i'm assuming
3:06 that it's accurate but unfortunately i
3:08 have no way of verifying that secondly
3:10 this data is over a decade old so there
3:13 is a good chance that the data isn't
3:15 reflective of how the markets are
3:18 behaving in now the year 2022. so i'd
3:20 say realistically this data set isn't
3:22 reliable enough to start basing our
3:24 strategies off but it is a good starting
3:27 point to suggest that the rumors of lane
3:29 of 101 being a long-term profitable
3:31 strategy might have some weight towards
3:33 them and when you can't find the answers
3:34 that you're looking for on google i'm
3:37 left with one choice and that is to try
3:38 and figure it out myself which is what
3:40 i'm going to do in this video i'm going
3:42 to run a sort of rudimentary experiment
3:45 to figure out if lane at 101 can be a
3:48 profitable strategy i won't be placing
3:50 you know 28 000 bets to figure this out
3:52 because you know i want to hold this
3:54 video at some point this decade but i'll
3:57 place as many bets as i physically can
4:00 to generate the largest sample size so
4:01 what i need to do first is what i do
4:03 when i'm doing any strategy and that is
4:05 to sit here and come up with a plan
4:06 however i'm going to implement the
4:07 strategy this is a little bit different
4:09 because obviously i'm doing a test here
4:11 to figure out if wayne at 101 is
4:13 profitable long term and now i need to
4:15 decide how the best way of figuring that
4:16 out is i thought a little bit of trying
4:18 to identify places where lane at 101
4:20 would be valuable but that just defeats
4:22 the entire objective of this video
4:24 because you could do that with any odds
4:26 and find value that way so ideally i'm
4:27 just going to try and find the best way
4:30 that i can lay 101 over and over again
4:32 and to track those results okay i've
4:34 made a few notes now about how i plan to
4:36 implement this strategy a part of me is
4:38 undecided on whether i should do the
4:41 same bet on the same type of market over
4:42 and over again so we have a consistent
4:45 data set or we should just go gung-ho
4:47 and weigh as many selections in as many
4:49 different markets all just odds of 101.
4:50 i've decided to keep it consistent to
4:52 begin with and see how that goes see how
4:54 many bets i can get matched per day and
4:56 my idea is that i'm going to weigh the
4:58 under 2.5 goals market at 101 i'm going
5:00 to put the bet in right at the start of
5:01 the game obviously it's not going to get
5:03 matched until late in the game i've had
5:05 a little bit of a research on bet angel
5:07 and some goal scoring data that i have
5:09 and it predicts that the under 2.5 goals
5:11 market will approximately reach odds of
5:14 101 somewhere between the 70th and 80th
5:15 minute so i'm gonna wait at the
5:16 beginning of the game hope to get
5:18 matched there at 101 and then obviously
5:20 i need three goals to be scored in
5:22 approximately 15 minute period plus
5:24 added time which is very unlikely but
5:26 that's obviously why the odds are 101.
5:28 goals are likely to be scored before the
5:30 75th minute mark if goals are scored
5:31 before that then this changes the
5:33 dynamic of the trade i was thinking
5:34 what's the best thing to do here should
5:36 i cancel a position if a goal is scored
5:38 for now i'm just going to leave the
5:40 position in for the entire game i want
5:43 to see is how many times can i get 101
5:45 matched what the results actually are
5:46 one thing that i did note down straight
5:47 away is it's going to be really
5:49 important to try and be at the front of
5:50 the queue i don't want to be sat behind
5:53 tens and tens of thousands of pounds
5:54 waiting to be matched because that is
5:56 eating away at my time in which i could
5:58 get profit from this trade and i'm going
6:00 to do it as an outright bet so obviously
6:02 if i lay at 101 and a goal goes in the
6:04 price will move up slightly i'm not
6:05 going to cash out here to begin with i'm
6:06 just going to leave himself out right
6:08 back and we'll see
6:09 how well that works i've made a couple
6:11 of notes about my steak
6:13 i don't want to lose all of my bank
6:14 doing this and i'll go wrong so i'm just
6:16 going to be using 10 pound stakes
6:18 because this isn't about making money
6:19 this is about research i'm trying to
6:20 settle a question which has been
6:22 bothering me from a while now so the
6:24 first game i'm going to do this on is
6:26 the walls versus lee's game just just
6:27 because it starts tonight i'm not going
6:29 to look at any pre-match research i'm
6:31 just going to do as many trades as
6:32 possible because that isn't the point
6:34 i'm not trying to find an edge from that
6:36 principle i'm just trying to see if
6:38 there's an edge based purely on odds of
6:40 101. so i'm going to open a 2.5 gold
6:42 market and i'm going to place away bet
6:44 odds of 101 and as i said and there's a
6:47 10 pound stake and i'm going to keep the
6:50 bet in play so we have a look now at the
6:52 price and see how much money is in front
6:54 of my money you see that there's 2 500
6:56 pound which isn't ideal but i know if i
6:58 left this employee by the time the price
7:00 was approaching 101 there'd be so much
7:02 more money waiting to be matched uh so
7:04 no surprises here this game is finished
7:06 and it's not won the bet in fact didn't
7:08 even get matched as there was already
7:11 over 2.5 goals before the price had even
7:13 come close to approaching odds of 101.
7:16 so yeah one trade in one day is nowhere
7:18 near a big enough sample size to to
7:20 start making an opinion about this
7:22 strategy so tomorrow i'm going to put a
7:23 lot more bets into the market in a lot
7:25 more games and hope that one of them
7:27 might hit so it's the next day here and
7:29 it's a saturday which typically is a day
7:31 of the week with the most number of
7:33 games so i started opening up every
7:35 single game and placing a 10-pound
7:37 labour in the under 2.5 goals market
7:40 making sure that each bet was selected
7:42 to keep once the market went into play
7:44 it didn't take many markets for me to
7:46 realize that this was an incredibly slow
7:48 process and i would need a faster
7:50 approach if i wanted to place as many
7:52 bets as possible for this experiment so
7:54 i decided to open up my sports trading
7:56 software which enables me to connect to
7:58 my betfair account and place bets much
8:00 quicker i used a very simple piece of
8:02 automation which essentially did two
8:05 things number one place a ten pound
8:09 labor odds of 1.01 and number two don't
8:11 cancel the bet once the market goes into
8:13 play this enabled me to place hundreds
8:16 of bets extremely quickly and for this
8:19 saturday i had 10 pound way bets in just
8:22 under 500 markets with a maximum risk of
8:24 just under 50 pounds i'm going to come
8:27 back tonight to see what mess i've ended
8:29 up leaving myself in oh you know you
8:31 never know it might in fact just be
8:33 profitable so i've been off the computer
8:35 all day now i know it's time to check
8:36 the results from the first day of doing
8:38 this i'm presuming that not many of
8:41 those 500 bets will have matched but
8:42 let's find out the worst case scenario
8:44 is about 50 pound down let's not hope
8:46 that's true
8:52 okay
8:55 13.60 down
8:58 wonderful hey so that's 137 markets
8:59 matched in theory on average you should
9:02 win once every 100 markets this is quite
9:04 quite a disappointing result hey a
9:05 couple of reasons why this might be the
9:07 case number one is because of the way
9:09 i've set the automation firewall but
9:10 it's going to place bets in markets
9:13 which are like one there or one goal in
9:16 them on like the 90th minute or the late
9:18 80 minutes which is not what i want
9:20 really but it's still weighing at 101 i
9:21 suppose which is what the aim of this
9:23 experiment was tomorrow i think i'm
9:24 going to change the automation wheel so
9:26 that it will cancel the bet after around
9:28 80 minutes in poi this means that the
9:29 bot is only going to pick up on markets
9:31 which are nil nil between the 70th and
9:33 80th minute which is what i wanted
9:35 really so i'm gonna try that tomorrow
9:37 see what happens it's the next day here
9:38 and looking at the results there was a
9:40 few games which hadn't finished when i
9:42 recorded last night so my overall loss
9:44 from day one is in fact even bigger i'm
9:46 going to change the way the automation
9:48 works because the way it's currently set
9:50 up the bet is going to stay in the
9:52 market break the entire game so it'll be
9:54 there when i want it to be though if the
9:56 game's about nil nil at around the 70
9:59 and 80th minute but it'll also be there
10:01 if there is one goal scored or two goals
10:03 in the game and the game is approaching
10:05 the 90th mania or even the very last
10:07 seconds of the game but that'll still be
10:09 there and can still be taken this may be
10:11 the cause of all my losses from day one
10:13 so because of that i'm adding one extra
10:16 condition to the automation cancel all
10:19 unmatched bet 95 minutes after the game
10:22 goes in play this would be approximately
10:24 after the 80th minute 45 minutes in the
10:26 first half 15 minute half time and then
10:29 35 minutes of the second half after
10:30 making this change i'm gonna come back
10:33 tonight to see if the automation did any
10:34 better today
10:37 or if this is gonna be a very expensive
10:38 video so i didn't have a chance to look
10:40 at any of the results from the bets i've
10:43 placed so it's not a day later i've been
10:45 at work all day and i've been itching to
10:46 check what the results are but i didn't
10:48 want to show you because i wanted to see
10:50 the live reaction here let's have a look
10:52 at my profit and loss here to see how i
10:54 did yesterday
10:57 it's called get bad okay so these must
11:00 been games that went in overnight past
11:02 12 o'clock august today
11:04 promising to start eight losses
11:11 oh wow
11:12 it's pretty good eh 2289
11:15 2289
11:18 167 markets that seems
11:19 quite too many markets for the
11:21 automation but i said well perhaps it
11:22 was an error there but what is that is
11:24 that it's like four or five wins there
11:28 we go there's a win
11:30 no idea what that league is all of these
11:31 leagues i've got no idea what they are
11:33 but yeah i've got i've got wins which
11:35 makes me feel a bit more confident that
11:36 i'm not going to lose all my money
11:38 making this video to look at my total
11:40 profit so far we've got seven pound
11:42 profit over 320 markets we're still in
11:44 the early stages so far testing the
11:46 strategy but it's promising at the
11:47 moment i'm going to be putting the
11:49 automation on and it's going to try and
11:50 get as many markets as possible and
11:52 let's see how well we can do i did some
11:54 thinking and realized that the
11:56 automation didn't work properly and more
11:58 bets were placed than they should have
12:01 been because i messed up on the third
12:02 automation rule didn't set it up
12:05 correctly but as the 300 plus bets that
12:07 i'd placed so far with the original
12:09 automation was giving me results i could
12:11 work with i decided to keep using these
12:13 conditions rather than fixing the broken
12:15 automation rule it's been a few weeks
12:17 since i last recorded however i've been
12:21 placing lay bets at 101 in as many under
12:23 2.5 gold markets that i can possibly
12:26 find all in all i have pleased over 5
12:29 000 bets and just over 2 000 of those
12:31 i've gone on to get matched so over 2
12:34 000 10 pound lay bets odds of 101 puts
12:36 my overall risk from this strategy this
12:39 experiment over 200 pounds so this is
12:43 the moment of truth after 2000 markets
12:45 let's see if i have made money or if
12:52 i know we have it after a terrible start
12:55 where i went 15 pounds down the strategy
12:57 has made a miraculous comeback and i'm
12:59 quite aware the strategy has done really
13:03 well if odds of 1.01 accurately reflect
13:05 the true probability then i was expected
13:08 to win quite a few times given the
13:09 number of markets i've ended up trading
13:12 but i've gone on to win many more
13:14 markets and i was expected to do so
13:15 which is a promising sign that this
13:17 strategy does in fact actually have
13:19 something going for it when i look at
13:20 some of the games where the strategy's
13:22 won there's been some games where i've
13:24 needed three goals in order to profit
13:26 somewhere was two goals needed for me to
13:28 win and some was the last second goal
13:30 that enabled me to get a profit i really
13:32 should emphasize that these results that
13:35 i've got so far do not guarantee by any
13:37 stretch of the imagination that this is
13:40 actually a long-term profitable strategy
13:42 there is every chance after thousands
13:44 and thousands of more markets than i've
13:46 already done that this strategy could
13:48 well in fact prove to be a losing
13:50 strategy in the long run and this is why
13:52 trading is so risky and it's very
13:53 important which what i've done here used
13:56 very low stakes each trade was tempe i'm
13:58 willing to use very low stakes in order
13:59 to develop my strategies and i recommend
14:01 that is what you do too and there's
14:02 every chance that if you just try to
14:04 copy exactly what i do you could
14:06 actually lose money so please be careful
14:08 when you are bet for trading i've been
14:10 giving that caveat i must say that i'm
14:11 very impressed with the start of this
14:13 strategy i'm going to continue to
14:15 develop and fine-tune this strategy in
14:17 the coming weeks and months if you want
14:19 to know how i set up my automation for
14:21 this trading strategy each day in order
14:23 to get the profits that i've got as a
14:25 matter of fact i've uploaded a tutorial
14:28 video to my patreon detail exactly how i
14:30 set this automation to run in the
14:32 background when i'm doing other things
14:33 if you're interested you can check it
14:35 out in the video description below you
14:37 can get your hands on some exclusive
14:39 trading content to say thank you i'd
14:41 like to specially thank all the people
14:44 who are already supporting the channel
14:45 really means a lot here's a little
14:47 shout-out for you for supporting the
14:49 channel this experiment has settled my
14:51 mind a little bit to finally make me
14:53 understand why there is always so much
14:55 money waiting to be matched at such
14:57 rewards and i'm excited to develop this
15:00 strategy further however one strategy on
15:02 its own isn't enough on your bet for
15:03 trading and if you want to learn
15:06 everything you can possibly know the ins
15:08 and outs of one of the most popular bet
15:10 for trading strategies out there you can
15:12 check out this video right here giving
15:14 an in-depth overview of the under 2.5
15:16 goals trading strategy [Music]
