0:02 What is the Iron Bank's plan and
0:04 strategy in A Song of Ice and Fire?
0:06 They're clearly important to the plot,
0:09 but how? What are they planning? Hi
0:11 everyone, this is Robert. Welcome to
0:13 InDeep Geek. On this channel, we cover A
0:15 Song of Ice and Fire in nerdy detail, as
0:17 well as the Lord of the Rings, The
0:20 Witcher, and much more. Welcome. It is
0:22 said that the Iron Bank always gets its
0:25 due, which is a good reputation for a
0:27 bank to have. But what does it mean for
0:29 the story? Because the Iron Throne owes
0:32 the Iron Bank a lot of money. Let's
0:34 start by being clear on how much is
0:37 owed. We know it is a lot, but how much?
0:40 In book one, Littlefinger tells Ned
0:42 Stark that the crown is more than 6
0:44 million gold pieces in debt. 3 million
0:46 of that is apparently to the Lannisters.
0:48 And we find out later that exactly 900,674
0:50 900,674
0:52 is owed to the Faith of the Seven,
0:54 though that was forgiven when Cersei
0:56 allowed the reestablishment of the faith
0:58 militant. And the balance is to the
1:01 Tyrells, several Tyroi trading cartels,
1:04 and the Iron Bank of Braavos. So,
1:06 anything up to about 2 million gold
1:09 pieces accumulated over years and in the
1:11 form of lots of smaller loans, each
1:13 presumably needing repayment at
1:15 different times, but each very much
1:18 there. It's a lot, and the Iron Bank
1:20 will have been nervous. To be honest,
1:22 it's hard to conceptualize the exact
1:24 amount in today's monetary terms because
1:26 the prices of things seem to fluctuate a
1:28 lot in Westeros depending on whether
1:30 they are at war and so on and as it's
1:32 obviously a very different world to our
1:34 modern one. As a few random examples
1:36 though to give you an idea, in the hedge
1:39 knight, Duncs a horse for three and a
1:41 bit gold coins. Horse ownership is the
1:43 privilege of the rich, however, and
1:44 we're told that a member of the small
1:46 folk could live for a year on those
1:49 three gold pieces. Whereas in A Song of
1:51 Ice and Fire, Brienne thinks that one
1:53 gold is a good price for a horse. And at
1:55 the other extreme end of things, Celidor
1:58 son wants 30,000 gold crowns per month
2:01 to hire his two dozen ships, crews, and
2:03 so on for a probably very dangerous
2:06 assignment. So exact comparisons to
2:08 today's money would be a fool's game,
2:10 but we're talking billions, probably
2:13 tens or hundreds of billions. And it was
2:15 acred mostly during Robert Baratheon's
2:18 rule to pay for the lavish lifestyle he
2:20 enjoyed feasts and turns and the like.
2:22 The hands turn held during book one had
2:26 a prize pool of 90,000 gold alone. Plus
2:27 there was also the cost of setting up
2:30 and hosting such attorney. Some debts
2:32 may also have carried over from the mad
2:34 king. We read that he got into a dispute
2:36 with the Iron Bank over debts left over
2:39 from his father Jiharis II. Anyway, the
2:41 first sign of trouble in the main story
2:44 is quite low-key. Tyrion, as acting hand
2:46 of the king, is told that a money lender
2:48 from Braavos has arrived seeking payment
2:51 on some loans. Tyrion hands that problem
2:53 over to Littlefinger as master of coin.
2:55 We then hear nothing until partway
2:58 through A Feast for Crows. Then Cersei
3:00 is in charge as Queen Regent. She wants
3:02 to rebuild the Royal Navy after much of
3:03 it had been lost in the Battle of the
3:05 Blackwater. But she has a problem.
3:08 Money, or lack of money. She says this
3:11 to the small council. Though large, the
3:13 crown incomes are not large enough to
3:15 keep a breast of Robert's debts.
3:17 Accordingly, I have decided to defer our
3:19 repayment of the sums owed the Holy
3:22 Faith and the Iron Bank of Braavos until
3:24 wars end. The new High Septton would
3:26 doubtless ring his holy hands, and the
3:28 Bravosi would squeak and squawk at her.
3:31 But what of it? The monies saved will be
3:33 used for the building of our new fleet.
3:36 Only Pycel objects, saying that the
3:37 decision not to pay the Iron Bank will
3:41 cause trouble, and trouble does come.
3:43 The Iron Bank's response is to call in
3:45 the debts owed to them across Westeros,
3:47 not just with the Iron Throne, but with
3:49 merchants and the like, and they refuse
3:52 any new loans. Cersei doesn't take this
3:54 very seriously, but it's clear that
3:56 economic warfare is now being waged on
3:57 the Iron Throne, and it will have no
3:59 doubt angered the rich middle classes of
4:02 the Seven Kingdoms. When Kevin Lannister
4:03 takes the reigns of power in King's
4:06 Landing, he ever practical tries to work
4:08 his way through the issue by seeking
4:10 loans from Pentos and Mia so he can pay
4:13 back what is owed to the Iron Bank. That
4:15 doesn't work. So he sends Harris Swift,
4:17 the Master of Coin, to Braavos to see
4:18 whether he can come to a negotiated
4:21 settlement of some kind. We don't know
4:24 yet how that meeting went, but I think
4:26 we can guess. Arya is our only PIV
4:28 character in Braavos at the moment and
4:29 she happens to stumble across Harris
4:31 Swift and his guards attending a
4:33 performance of a new play. She's
4:34 undercover as one of the actors in that
4:38 play. I say happens to stumble upon, but
4:40 this seems far from random. If Harris
4:43 Swift were an honored guest in Braavos,
4:44 would he really be sent to the opening
4:47 act of a play seemingly making fun of
4:49 Robert Baratheon and the Lannisters?
4:51 That seems unlikely. And Arya being
4:53 there also seems deliberate. The
4:55 faceless men know that she is finding it
4:57 hard to leave her stark identity behind.
4:59 Are they really going to send her to a
5:00 mummer's group where she will have to
5:02 literally act out some of the most
5:03 traumatic moments to happen to her
5:06 family? And they know the names on her
5:08 list and that one of Harris Swift's gods
5:11 is on there. The more you look at it,
5:13 the more this feels like the faceless
5:16 men hoping or expecting her to kill Raph
5:19 the Sweetling, that guard. Why? Not for
5:22 themselves, but because their closest
5:24 customer and ally, the Iron Bank, want
5:26 to send a message to the Lannisters. The
5:28 Iron Bank does have a history of this
5:30 with the Faceless Men. In Fire and
5:32 Blood, you can read of the time the
5:34 Rogair Bank of Lease briefly eclipsed
5:36 the power and wealth of the Iron Bank.
5:39 And then a series of unfortunate
5:40 accidents happened to their senior
5:42 members, one after another,
5:44 destabilizing that bank and allowing the
5:47 Iron Bank to regain its primacy. No
5:49 prizes for guessing who orchestrated the
5:51 accidents. But perhaps even more
5:53 significantly, the Iron Bank seems to
5:56 have shifted its position. Seemingly
5:57 well before Harris Swift set foot in
5:59 Braavos, they had shifted to a new
6:02 strategy. Taiko Nestois, one of their
6:04 senior envoys, took a boat up from
6:07 Braavos to the wall, seeking an audience
6:09 with Stannis. After the deaths of Rob
6:12 Renley and Balong Greyjoy, as well as
6:14 Joffrey, of course, Stannis is the last
6:15 man standing in the War of the Five
6:18 Kings. And as young Griff's invasion was
6:20 yet to happen, Stannis is seemingly the
6:22 only possible candidate to challenge the
6:25 Lannisters. Of course, Stannis was low
6:27 on coin and soldiers, but the Iron Bank
6:28 could help with that if he were
6:31 interested. Again, this is not a new
6:33 strategy, but something they had been
6:35 doing for centuries. No doubt Pycel had
6:37 been aware of this before his objections
6:40 were swiftly silenced by Cersei. We
6:41 actually get a good summary of this
6:44 strategy from Jon Snow's thoughts as he
6:45 also considered getting a loan for the
6:47 Night's Watch from Tyonosaurus and the
6:50 Iron Bank as they happened to be there.
6:51 That was for ships and provisions to
6:54 last the winter though. This is what Jon
6:56 thinks about the Iron Bank strategy. The
6:58 Iron Bank of Braavos had a fearsome
7:01 reputation when collecting debts. When
7:02 princes defaulted on their debts to
7:05 lesser banks, ruined bankers sold their
7:06 wives and children into slavery and
7:09 opened their own veins. When princes
7:11 failed to repay the Iron Bank, new
7:14 princes sprang up from nowhere and took
7:16 their thrones. As poor Plump Tommen may
7:18 be about to learn, no doubt the
7:20 Lannisters had good reason for refusing
7:21 to honor King Robert's debts, but it was
7:24 folly all the same. If Stannis was not
7:26 too stiff- necked to accept their terms,
7:28 the Braavosi would give him all the gold
7:30 and silver he required, coin enough to
7:32 buy a dozen Cells sword companies to
7:34 bribe a h 100red lords to keep his men
7:38 paid, fed, clothed, and armed.
7:40 And Stannis does take them up on their
7:41 offer, at least according to the
7:42 pre-release chapter from the Winds of
7:44 Winter from Theon's point of view. In
7:47 that, Stannis says to Justin Massie, who
7:49 he entrusts with getting and spending
7:51 the gold from the loan, "The Iron Bank
7:53 has opened its coffers to me. You will
7:55 collect their coin and hire ships and
7:58 sell swords, a company of good repute,
8:00 if you can find one. The Golden Company
8:01 would be my first choice, if they are
8:03 not already under contract. Seek for
8:06 them in the Disputed Lands if need be.
8:08 But first, hire as many swords as you
8:10 can find in Braavos, and send them to me
8:13 by way of East Watch. Archers as well.
8:15 We need more bows.
8:17 Sir Justin's hair had fallen down across
8:19 one eye. He pushed it back and said,
8:21 "The captains of the free companies will
8:23 join a lord more readily than a mere
8:25 knight." "Your grace, I hold neither
8:27 lands nor title. Why should they sell
8:30 their swords to me? Go to them with both
8:32 fists full of golden dragons," the king
8:35 said in an acid tone. "That should prove
8:38 persuasive. 20,000 men should suffice.
8:41 Do not return with fewer."
8:44 So Stannis has taken on a huge loan,
8:46 enough to hire 20,000 men. That's a
8:48 sizable army. And in case you were
8:50 wondering, this doesn't mean that the
8:52 Iron Bank have now written off what the
8:54 Iron Throne owes them. Stannis has
8:56 signed up to repaying when he becomes
8:58 king, not only his loan, but also take
9:00 on the debt that the Iron Throne already
9:04 had. The Iron Bank always gets its due.
9:07 So what does this all add up to? The
9:09 Iron Throne owes a huge debt to the Iron
9:11 Bank, and Cersei has decided to stop
9:13 their repayments on that debt until the
9:15 war is over in Westeros. But the Iron
9:18 Bank aren't happy and respond with some
9:19 economic sanctions against not just the
9:22 Lannisters, but merchants, hoping that
9:23 they will put pressure on the Iron
9:25 Throne to deal with it. Cersei doesn't
9:28 care. When he gets into power, however,
9:30 Kevin realizes the seriousness of the
9:32 situation and tries to work out a way to
9:34 pay what is owed to the Iron Bank. He
9:36 first tries getting loans from some
9:38 other bank so he can pay the Iron Bank,
9:39 but they refuse that. It's
9:41 understandable. The Iron Throne's credit
9:43 rating probably isn't that good at this
9:46 time with them hugely in debt and unable
9:47 to make the payments. So, he sends an
9:50 envoy to Braavos to negotiate some kind
9:53 of deal. All very sensible. But the Iron
9:55 Bank have run out of patience. They are
9:57 sending a message to Cersei by
9:58 economically attacking business in the
10:00 seven kingdoms, having a member of her
10:03 envoy's delegation accidentally murdered
10:05 in Braavos, and lending Stannis all the
10:07 money he needs to launch another bid for
10:10 the Iron Throne himself. Yes, this is
10:13 the Iron Bank acting as a major player
10:15 on the world stage, toppling regimes and
10:18 installing their own candidates. They
10:20 are more powerful than many citystates
10:22 or even nations in the world of ice and
10:24 fire. But what does this mean for the
10:28 story going forward? Well, first Arya,
10:30 if I'm right that the Faceless Men set
10:32 her up to kill Rath the Sweeting for the
10:34 Iron Bank, then we have to consider the
10:36 possibility that they might use her to
10:38 get at more of their enemies. They know
10:41 who is on Ya's kill list. Might they be
10:42 okay with her leaving her training to
10:44 head back to Westeros, knowing she will
10:47 at some point almost certainly try to
10:50 kill Cersei? I think so. It makes sense
10:52 of why they keep training her despite
10:54 her never really using her Starkish
10:56 identity inside.
10:59 Second, Stannis. He now has the
11:00 resources he needs to launch another
11:02 attempt to claim the Iron Throne. But
11:04 he's not really in a position to do that
11:06 right now. He wants to claim Winterfell
11:08 first, then the North, then save the
11:10 Seven Kingdoms from the others. Added to
11:13 which it will take time for his army to
11:15 arrive. Justin Massie has to get to
11:17 Castle Black, then Eastw Watch, then
11:19 over to Braavos to collect the money,
11:21 then over into Deeper Essos to hire some
11:23 Cell Sword companies. Stannis even
11:25 suggests he heads all the way down to
11:27 the disputed lands, which is a long way
11:30 away. Then he needs to get back.
11:31 Stannis's new army is not going to
11:33 appear for a long time, and the
11:36 otherwise relatively obscure Justin
11:38 Massie suddenly becomes an extremely
11:40 important person. Stannis says to him
11:42 that if he hears Stannis is dead, he is
11:44 to carry on with his mission and bring
11:47 the army for Shireen. But what if he
11:49 hears that Stannis and Shireen are both
11:52 dead? We know he's a very ambitious man
11:54 and he'll have a lot of money in his
11:56 pockets or a large army at his back.
11:59 It's one to keep an eye on. Third,
12:01 there's Young Griff or Aegon the Sixth
12:03 if you prefer. He has burst onto the
12:05 scene after the Iron Bank decided to
12:08 back Stannis, but looks much more likely
12:10 than him to actually win the Iron
12:12 Throne. How will the Iron Bank respond
12:15 to him if he wins King's Landing? Expect
12:17 an envoy from the Iron Bank to be one of
12:19 the first to visit the new boy king. And
12:22 finally, Daenerys and her dragons. It
12:24 looks like she won't need anything from
12:26 the Iron Bank to pay for her to have an
12:28 army capable of invading Westeros. She
12:30 may well have the Unsullied, Second
12:33 Sons, Dothraki, the Iron Fleet, support
12:35 from the faith of Ror, and some dragons,
12:37 of course. How will the Iron Bank react
12:40 to her? Well, there's a blink and you'll
12:42 miss it reference when Jon Snow is
12:44 talking to Tao Nesto that I think might
12:46 be quite suggestive. Jon makes a
12:48 flippant comment about it being so cold
12:50 at the wall they could do with the
12:52 dragon to warm them up. And Tao, who had
12:54 happily been drinking and bantering with
12:58 Jon before, suddenly gets all serious.
13:00 One hears queer talk of dragons, says
13:02 Tao. Would that we had one here?
13:04 Responds John. A dragon might warm
13:08 things up a bit. My lord gests. You will
13:11 forgive me if I do not laugh. We Bravosi
13:12 are descended from those who fled
13:15 Valyria and the wroth of its dragon
13:19 lords. We do not jape of dragons.
13:22 No, I suppose not. My apologies, Lord
13:25 Tao. It's a slightly awkward exchange,
13:28 but I think shows how the Bravosi and
13:30 the Iron Bank view the potential return
13:33 of dragons. They don't like the idea,
13:35 and that's putting it lightly. Perhaps
13:37 it might also explain why there's a
13:39 faceless man down in Oldtown seemingly
13:41 hunting for information in the secret
13:43 parts of the Citadel. But all of that
13:45 seems like another video in waiting, so
13:47 I'll talk about that more there. For
13:49 now, the strategy is clear. If Cersei
13:51 won't pay her debts, the Iron Bank will
13:53 get rid of her by any means possible.
13:55 Economic pressure, assassination,
13:57 backing a rival, anything. In the
13:59 absence of any better options, they've
14:02 thrown their support behind Stannis, but
14:04 only in terms of loans. Remember, they
14:06 will get that money back somehow from
14:08 someone. And if young Griff sits on the
14:10 Iron Throne, they will try to get their
14:12 money back from him. And if Danny does,
14:15 the same. Though they could probably do
14:17 without her having dragons. Dragons are
14:20 not good for business.
14:22 If you'd like to see more videos diving
14:24 deep into the world of A Song of Ice and
14:25 Fire, there's a link to my playlist
14:26 appearing now on the left of your
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14:30 thank you. There's a link appearing now
14:32 on the right of your screen. That's all
14:34 for this time. Thanks for watching. I'll
