0:03 It's the year 2035. Across the Western
0:05 world, something strange is unfolding.
0:08 The streets are clean, but quiet.
0:10 Hospitals turn away patients, not for
0:14 lack of beds, but for lack of doctors.
0:17 Factories stand idle. Schools sit empty.
0:20 Entire cities feel hollow. There was no
0:24 war, no virus, no sudden catastrophe.
0:26 Just a slow, quiet shift decades in the
0:29 making that no one took seriously until
0:32 it was too late. The economies that once
0:34 ruled the world are sputtering. The
0:36 institutions they built are crumbling.
0:39 And beneath it all lies one quiet number
0:42 that changed everything. So what happens
0:44 when the world's most advanced societies
0:45 run out of their most important
0:48 resource? Welcome to the crisis no one
0:50 prepared for and the future we're about
0:53 to inherit. Here's a number that should
0:56 terrify every government on Earth. 1.599.
0:58 1.599.
1:00 That's the United States fertility rate
1:03 for 2024, the lowest in American
1:06 history. It means the average woman in
1:08 America is having just 1.6 children in
1:10 her lifetime. Now, to keep the
1:13 population stable, you need 2.1. We're
1:16 not even close. And here's what that
1:18 number really means. Every year we stay
1:21 this low, we're guaranteeing a smaller
1:25 future, a weaker economy, fewer workers,
1:27 more burden on the young, less
1:30 innovation, less vitality. The
1:32 demographic momentum is already locked
1:36 in. In the early 1960s, American women
1:39 averaged 3.5 children. By 2007, it had
1:42 dropped to 2.1, right at replacement
1:45 level. Now, we've fallen off a
1:48 demographic cliff. Japan saw fewer than
1:51 700,000 births in 2024, the first time
1:54 below that threshold since records began
1:56 in 1899.
2:00 Their fertility rates a crushing 1.15.
2:03 That means for every 100 Japanese people
2:06 alive today, there will only be 55 in
2:08 the next generation.
2:10 South Korea tells an even darker story.
2:14 Their fertility rate hit 0.74 in 2024,
2:17 the lowest among OECD countries. At
2:21 0.74, each new generation is roughly 1/3
2:23 the size of the previous one. Italy
2:27 recorded just 370,000 births in 2024,
2:29 the fewest since the country unified in 1861.
2:31 1861.
2:34 Their fertility rate at 1.18.
2:36 But here's what keeps demographers up at
2:38 night. A landmark study published by the
2:42 Lancet projects that by 2050 3/4 of all
2:44 countries will have fertility rates
2:47 below replacement level. By 2100, a
2:50 staggering 97% of nations could be
2:52 shrinking. We're not talking about
2:55 slowing growth. We're talking about the
2:56 beginning of the end of entire civilizations.
2:58 civilizations.
3:01 And the consequences, they're already
3:04 unfolding. Picture an economy built on a
3:06 simple promise. Tomorrow we'll have more
3:09 people than today. More workers, more
3:13 consumers, more taxpayers. That promise
3:16 is breaking. In 1960, the United States
3:19 had about five workers for every retiree
3:23 paying into Social Security. By 2035,
3:25 just 10 years from now, there will be
3:28 only two workers per retiree. Two people
3:31 working, one person retired. The math
3:34 doesn't work. And it gets worse. Those
3:36 two workers won't just be supporting one
3:39 retiree through social security. They'll
3:42 also be funding Medicare, Medicaid,
3:44 infrastructure maintenance, national
3:46 defense, and everything else the
3:49 government provides while trying to save
3:51 for their own retirement in a system
3:54 that might not exist when they need it.
3:56 The pressure is already building. In
4:00 Japan, over 40% of people over 55 are
4:02 still working, the highest rate in half
4:06 a century. Many can afford to retire. In
4:09 2022, an 82-year-old Walmart cashier in
4:12 America went viral because viewers
4:14 realized he literally couldn't afford to
4:16 stop working. Strangers donated over
4:20 $100,000 so he could finally retire.
4:22 That's one person. What about the
4:24 millions of others in the same situation
4:27 who don't go viral, who just keep
4:29 working until they physically can't
4:31 anymore? That's the future we're
4:34 building. But here's where things spiral
4:37 into crisis. As populations age and
4:39 shrink, entire economic sectors
4:43 collapse. In Japan, diaper manufacturers
4:45 now sell more adult diapers than baby
4:48 ones. Schools close across rural America
4:51 because there aren't enough children. In
4:54 West Virginia, Mississippi, Illinois,
4:56 states seeing population decline,
4:59 communities face a vicious cycle. Young
5:01 people leave for opportunities
5:03 elsewhere. The remaining population
5:07 shrinks and ages. Tax revenues collapse.
5:10 Public services get cut, so more young
5:13 people leave. Ghost towns aren't just a
5:15 relic of the gold rush. They're the
5:18 future. One analysis warned that
5:20 thousands of US towns could virtually
5:23 vanish by 2100 if current trends
5:26 continue. This isn't science fiction.
5:28 It's demographic destiny. But you
5:31 haven't heard the worst part yet. The
5:33 same crisis that's destroying rural
5:36 towns is about to gut entire regions.
5:38 And when local governments collapse, the
5:41 services you take for granted vanish
5:44 overnight. Local governments across
5:46 America fund themselves through property
5:49 taxes and sales taxes. But when the
5:51 population shrinks, tax revenues
5:54 collapse. Schools get consolidated.
5:57 Hospitals close their doors. In 2024,
5:59 multiple US states reported population
6:02 declines. West Virginia, Mississippi,
6:04 Illinois, Maine, Pennsylvania,
6:07 Louisiana, all watching their tax bases
6:10 evaporate. The pattern is always the
6:12 same. Young people leave for
6:14 opportunities. The remaining population
6:17 ages, services get cut, which makes more
6:20 young people leave. And here's the
6:22 kicker. The federal government can't
6:24 bail them out. When everyone's drowning,
6:27 there aren't enough lifeboats. In Japan,
6:30 entire rural regions have been mapped as
6:33 vacant village zones, areas where almost
6:35 no young people remain. Where buildings
6:38 crumble and nature reclaims the land.
6:40 That's America's future if nothing
6:43 changes. But if you think shrinking
6:45 towns are bad, wait until you see what
6:47 happens when there aren't enough workers
6:50 to defend the country. Here's a question
6:52 no one wanted to answer 20 years ago.
6:55 Who's going to do the work? The US
6:57 military, once a magnet for young
7:01 recruits, is struggling. In 2023, the
7:03 Army, Navy, and Air Force, failed to
7:06 meet recruitment targets. The Army fell
7:10 short by 15,000 soldiers and almost 25%
7:12 gap. The cohort of Americans turning 18
7:16 peaked in 2025 at about 9.4 million. By
7:19 2029, it drops to 8 million. That's a
7:22 direct consequence of the 2008 financial
7:24 crisis. When the recession hit, births
7:28 plummeted. From 2008 to 2013, 2.3
7:30 million fewer babies were born than
7:33 demographers had projected. Then came
7:37 2020 and COVID 19. Effectively, baby
7:40 bust number two. Despite jokes about a
7:42 lockdown baby boom, the opposite
7:45 happened. Births fell again. Those
7:47 missing babies, they're the missing
7:49 recruits now. the missing workers, the
7:52 missing taxpayers. Japan already faces
7:55 this reality head on. Convenience stores
7:58 experiment with robot staff because they
8:01 can't hire enough clerks. Rural villages
8:03 have turned into ghost towns with wild
8:05 animals wandering through deserted
8:07 streets. But here's what really should
8:10 concern us. The world's factory floor is
8:12 shifting. For decades, made in China was
8:15 stamped on everything you owned. Not
8:18 anymore. Apple, which has made iPhones
8:20 in China since 2007, started moving
8:25 production to India. By 2025, 25% of all
8:28 iPhones will be made there. That's a $50
8:32 billion shift away from China. Samsung
8:35 already left for Vietnam. Nike making
8:38 more shoes in Vietnam than China. Now,
8:41 in 2023 alone, foreign companies
8:44 announced 378 major factory relocations
8:48 out of China. The reason is simple.
8:50 Chinese workers aren't cheap anymore.
8:52 Average factory wages have tripled in
8:55 the last decade. A factory worker in
8:58 Vietnam costs half as much. In India,
9:00 even less. And China's working age
9:03 population, it's been shrinking by 3
9:06 million people every year since 2012.
9:08 That's like losing the entire workforce
9:11 of Spain over a decade. You can't be the
9:13 world's factory floor when you're
9:15 running out of workers. But
9:17 manufacturing is just the beginning of
9:19 China's nightmare. The country that
9:21 lifted 800 million people out of poverty
9:24 over 40 years is now sliding backward.
9:26 And demographic collapse is the weapon
9:28 pulling the trigger. But the
9:31 manufacturing story goes deeper. Because
9:32 what's happening reveals something
9:35 terrifying about our global future. For
9:37 decades, economists assumed you could
9:39 always find cheap labor somewhere. If
9:42 China got expensive, move to Vietnam. If
9:44 Vietnam got expensive, move to
9:47 Bangladesh. But that pipeline is drying
9:50 up fast. Vietnam's fertility rate
9:53 already dropped to 2.0, just barely at
9:57 replacement level. Thailand's at 1.3.
10:00 Even Bangladesh, long a source of cheap
10:03 labor, has fallen to 1.9 and dropping by
10:05 2100. According to demographic
10:08 projections, only a handful of African
10:10 nations will have growing populations.
10:12 Almost everywhere else will be shrinking
10:15 simultaneously, which raises a question
10:18 no one wants to answer. In a world where
10:20 every country desperately needs workers
10:23 and no one has a surplus population, who
10:26 wins? The answer is probably the
10:27 countries that remain open and welcoming
10:30 to immigrants. The United States,
10:32 Canada, Australia, nations built on
10:35 immigration might sustain themselves by
10:38 attracting global talent. But closed
10:41 societies, Japan, China, much of Eastern
10:43 Europe, they're building walls right as
10:46 they need the world most. And even
10:49 immigration can't save everyone because
10:51 when the source countries themselves are
10:54 aging, the math simply doesn't work.
10:55 What happens when the world's most
10:58 powerful economies start breaking? when
11:00 there aren't enough young people to
11:02 staff hospitals, defend borders, or care
11:05 for the elderly. The answer, it's
11:07 already happening. And China, the
11:09 country that lifted 800 million people
11:12 out of poverty, is about to show us
11:15 exactly how ugly it gets. For decades,
11:17 China's government had a deal with its
11:20 people. Give up political freedom, get
11:23 economic prosperity in return. For 40
11:25 years, that deal worked. People got
11:29 richer, lives improved, but now that
11:32 deal is falling apart. Remember that
11:34 software engineer in Shenzhen who bought
11:37 a $400,000 apartment in 2020? The one
11:39 who thought real estate was the safest
11:42 investment because prices always went
11:44 up. His apartment is now worth half of
11:48 what he paid. And he's not alone. Across
11:49 China, middle class families are
11:51 watching their wealth evaporate. Youth
11:54 unemployment hit 21.3% before the
11:56 government simply stopped publishing the
11:59 numbers. And China's population, it fell
12:02 in 2022 for the first time in 60 years.
12:04 Their working age population will drop
12:07 by nearly half by 2100 if current trends
12:10 hold. But here's what really matters.
12:12 When young people lose hope in the
12:14 future, they stop having children. And
12:16 when they stop having children, there is
12:19 no future. In South Korea, they call
12:22 them the sampo generation. Those who've
12:24 given up on three things: jobs,
12:28 marriage, and children. In China, it's
12:30 lying flat, refusing to participate in
12:32 the rat race because they can't win
12:35 anyway. In Japan, a significant fraction
12:37 of young people report little interest
12:40 in dating or relationships at all. This
12:42 isn't happening in one country. It's
12:44 happening everywhere. A recent survey
12:47 found that 44% of American young adults
12:49 who don't yet have kids said it's
12:52 unlikely they ever will. The most common
12:55 reasons, money, housing costs, work life
12:57 balance, climate anxiety, the sheer
12:59 burden of raising a child in a system
13:02 that offers almost no support. In the
13:05 US, child care costs more than college
13:08 tuition in many states. In 2023, about
13:11 65% of Americans were living paycheck to
13:14 paycheck. Nearly 40% can't cover a $400
13:17 emergency expense. Starting a family
13:20 feels like an unaffordable luxury. So,
13:23 people are making a rational choice.
13:25 They're not having kids. But what
13:27 happens when an entire generation makes
13:29 that choice? Here's the brutal truth
13:32 about demographic collapse. It feeds on
13:35 itself. Fewer children today means fewer
13:38 potential parents tomorrow, which means
13:40 even fewer children the day after. It's
13:43 an extinction spiral, and once it
13:45 starts, it's almost impossible to
13:48 reverse. By 2050, one in six people
13:51 worldwide will be over 65. That's up
13:55 from 1 in 11 in 2019. In Japan, seniors
13:57 already make up nearly 30% of the
14:01 population. By 2035, 1 in three Chinese
14:04 people will be over 60. That's around
14:07 450 million elderly people. More seniors
14:10 than the entire population of the United
14:12 States. And who's going to take care of
14:15 them? China's typical family structure
14:17 now looks like this. Two parents, four
14:20 grandparents, and just one child. They
14:24 call them 421 families. That one child
14:27 is supposed to support six older people.
14:30 It's mathematically impossible. In
14:32 America, roughly 28% of seniors live
14:35 alone, far higher than in family
14:38 oriented cultures. By the time Gen Z
14:40 reaches old age, that number could
14:42 skyrocket given many aren't marrying or
14:45 having kids. An epidemic of elderly
14:48 loneliness is brewing. And loneliness
14:51 isn't just sad, it's deadly. Studies
14:53 show it increases mortality and healthc
14:55 care use comparable to smoking. But
14:58 perhaps the scariest part of this crisis
15:00 is how quiet it is. There's no
15:03 explosion, no dramatic collapse, just a
15:07 slow fade. Empty playgrounds, closed
15:09 schools, hospitals overwhelmed with
15:12 elderly patients, pension systems
15:14 collapsing, local governments cutting
15:17 services. A society that built itself on
15:19 the promise of growth, slowly
15:22 discovering that promise was a lie. And
15:24 then there's the question no one wants
15:27 to discuss. What happens to dating,
15:29 relationships, and human connection
15:31 itself? Because here's something bizarre
15:33 that's been happening over the last
15:36 decade. Young people are having less sex
15:38 than any generation in modern history.
15:40 In California's health survey, the share
15:42 of young adults reporting no sexual
15:44 partners in the past year jumped from
15:49 22% in 2011 to 38% in 2021.
15:51 Nationally, about one in three Gen Z men
15:54 and one in four Gen Z women had no sex
15:56 in the past year. The reasons are
15:59 complicated. Social media and online
16:01 socialization replacing in-person
16:04 connections. Rising anxiety, economic
16:07 stress. The pandemic made it worse.
16:09 Lockdowns nuked everyone's social
16:12 skills. Some young people are opting out
16:14 entirely. The child-free movement,
16:16 people voluntarily choosing never to
16:19 have kids, has grown significantly. But
16:21 here's what that means on a societal
16:24 level. So, here's the billiondoll
16:27 question. Can we fix this? The short
16:29 answer, we don't know. Because no
16:32 society has ever reversed a long-term
16:34 fertility decline. But that doesn't mean
16:37 we're not trying. France spends about 4%
16:40 of GDP on family support, public
16:42 daycare, monthly child allowances,
16:45 generous parental leave. Their fertility
16:48 rate at 1.8 is among Western Europe's
16:50 highest. Still below replacement, but
16:53 better than most. Nordic countries
16:55 provide 12 plus months of paid parental
16:58 leave, subsidized child care, flexible
17:00 work arrangements. Their rates hover
17:04 around 1.6 to 1.8. South Korea's
17:07 government has spent over $270 billion
17:09 on prob birth initiatives over the past
17:12 decade. The result, their fertility rate
17:16 fell from 1.2 to 72 over that same
17:19 period. Money alone doesn't work. And
17:21 here's what the data reveals about the
17:24 deeper problem. Women in low fertility
17:26 countries report that they would like to
17:28 have more children than they end up
17:30 having. The gap between desired and
17:34 actual fertility is growing. In South
17:36 Korea, surveys show many women cite
17:39 career sacrifice and unequal child care
17:42 burdens as major deterrence. In Japan,
17:44 the corporate culture is notoriously
17:47 inflexible. Working mothers face
17:50 enormous social pressure. In the United
17:52 States, the average cost of child care
17:55 exceeds $10,000 per year per child in
17:58 most states. Across the developed world,
18:00 housing has become prohibitively
18:03 expensive. Since 1960, median home
18:06 prices in the US have surged 121% after
18:09 inflation, while median income rose only 29%.
18:11 29%.
18:13 In the 1960s, an average home cost about
18:16 2 years salary. Today, more like 5
18:19 years. In expensive cities, it's 10
18:22 times annual income. When young people
18:24 can barely afford rent, many conclude
18:27 they cannot afford children. Economic
18:29 shocks echo through generations. Those
18:32 missing babies from 2008 to 2013 are
18:35 today's missing 18y olds. Tomorrow's
18:38 missing workers and parents. Some
18:40 countries are banking on immigration.
18:42 Canada now accepts about 500,000
18:45 immigrants per year to counter aging and
18:48 labor shortages. The United States
18:50 historically has used immigration to
18:52 sustain population growth. Immigration
18:54 has been key to US technological
18:57 leadership. More than 50% of America's
18:59 billion-dollar startups were founded by
19:02 immigrants. But the pipeline is drying
19:06 up. By 2100, only a handful of African
19:08 nations might still have growing
19:11 populations. When everyone needs workers
19:13 and no one has a surplus population, who
19:17 wins? Others are betting on technology.
19:20 Japan is pioneering elder care robots.
19:22 AI might handle jobs that humans used to
19:25 do. But here's the thing. Robots don't
19:28 pay taxes. They don't consume products.
19:31 They don't have children. An economy of
19:33 machines might produce goods
19:35 efficiently. But if no one has jobs or
19:37 income to buy those goods, what's the
19:40 point? Some economists argue that
19:42 automation could massively increase
19:44 productivity, allowing fewer workers to
19:47 support more retirees.
19:48 But that assumes the benefits get
19:51 distributed fairly. History suggests
19:54 otherwise. If automation concentrates
19:56 wealth in the hands of a few tech owners
19:59 while millions are jobless, you don't
20:02 get utopia. You get social instability.
20:05 And AI can't solve everything. Many
20:09 essential roles require human touch. AI
20:11 can't nurse you with empathy. It can't
20:13 teach and inspire a classroom of kids
20:16 with genuine care. Technology might help
20:19 us manage the crisis, but it can't solve
20:22 the fundamental problem. Societies need
20:24 children to survive.
20:27 Or maybe maybe we're witnessing
20:29 something far darker. Let's return to
20:33 where we started, the year 2035.
20:36 Quiet streets, empty schools, hospitals
20:39 turning patients away. In 10 years, this
20:41 won't be a hypothetical scenario. It
20:43 will be reality in parts of the
20:45 developed world. The youngest
20:48 generations, millennials and Gen Z, will
20:50 be in their 30s and 40s. They'll be
20:52 caring for aging baby boomers while
20:54 trying to raise children in an economy
20:57 that offers them no support. They'll be
21:00 crushed by taxes to fund pensions.
21:03 They'll likely never receive themselves.
21:05 They'll watch rural towns become ghost
21:07 towns. They'll serve in militaries that
21:10 can't recruit enough soldiers. And
21:12 they'll ask the question no one wants to
21:15 answer. Was it worth it? was building a
21:17 world where children became too
21:19 expensive, too burdensome, too
21:22 incompatible with modern life, was that
21:24 progress? Because here's the
21:26 uncomfortable truth at the heart of this
21:29 crisis. A society that has no room for
21:32 children has no future. We built cities
21:34 where apartments are too small for
21:36 families. We built economies where
21:39 having a child means career suicide. We
21:41 built a culture where parenthood is seen
21:44 as a lifestyle choice, optional,
21:46 inconvenient, something to be outsourced
21:49 or avoided. And now we're paying the
21:52 price. The lights might stay on, the
21:55 skyscrapers might still stand. But if
21:56 there are no children playing in the
21:59 streets, no laughter in the schools, no
22:02 hope for tomorrow, what exactly have we
22:04 built? Here's what keeps demographic
22:07 experts awake at night. Time is running
22:10 out. Every year of ultra- low birth
22:11 rates creates a deficit that takes
22:14 generations to fix. You can't
22:16 manufacture 20 year olds overnight. It
22:19 takes 20 years. And the clock started
22:21 ticking decades ago. If we want to avoid
22:24 the darkest version of 2035, we need to
22:28 act now. Not next year, not after the
22:31 next election. Now. That means making
22:33 radical changes. Affordable housing.
22:36 Young people can't have families when a
22:38 starter home costs 10 times their annual
22:41 income. Universal health care. Parents
22:43 shouldn't have to choose between career
22:46 and children. Paid parental leave. Not 2
22:50 weeks, not 3 months. Real time to bond
22:52 and care for newborns. Flexible work
22:55 arrangements. Remote work proved it's
22:58 possible. Make it permanent. Cultural
23:00 change. We need to stop treating
23:02 children as burdens and start seeing
23:04 them as the most valuable investment a
23:07 society can make. And maybe, just maybe,
23:10 we need to rediscover a simple truth our
23:12 ancestors understood.
23:14 Family, community, and the next
23:16 generation matter more than career
23:18 advancement, material wealth, or
23:21 personal freedom. That's not a popular
23:23 message, but it might be the only one
23:27 that saves us. So, here's where we are.
23:30 Global fertility rates are collapsing.
23:33 By 2100, 97% of countries could be below
23:36 replacement level. The working age
23:38 population is shrinking. Pension systems
23:40 are buckling. Entire regions are
23:43 becoming ghost towns. Governments have
23:45 spent hundreds of billions trying to
23:47 boost birth rates. Almost nothing has
23:50 worked. And time is running out. This
23:53 isn't a distant crisis. It's happening
23:55 now. The question isn't whether the
23:59 world will look different in 2035, 2050,
24:02 or 2100. The question is how different
24:05 will it be. Will we find a way to build
24:07 societies where people actually want to
24:10 have children? Where raising the next
24:12 generation isn't an act of financial
24:15 suicide, but of hope? Or will we
24:17 continue down this path until the
24:19 schools stand empty, the factories
24:23 close, and the lights slowly dim?
24:25 Because make no mistake, this is the end
24:28 of the world as we know it. Not with a
24:30 bang, but with a whisper. The whisper of
24:33 playgrounds with no children. So, what
24:35 do you think? Is this a crisis we can
24:39 solve, or are we already too late? Drop
24:41 your thoughts in the comments. And if
24:43 you want more analysis on the forces
24:46 reshaping our world, hit subscribe
24:48 because the future is coming whether
