0:01 This accumulator betting strategy
0:03 actually works and I'm going to prove it
0:05 to you. I've been betting professionally
0:07 for over 15 years. So, in this video,
0:09 I'll break everything down so that
0:11 anyone can understand clearly. You'll
0:13 see it for yourself because I'll walk
0:15 you through two real examples that
0:18 anyone can understand. And trust me, the
0:19 second one might shock you. Although,
0:22 there is one warning here. This video
0:24 may get a little bit nerdy in places. If
0:25 you use this betting strategy
0:28 consistently, the bookmakers notice and
0:29 that's when the account restrictions and
0:32 bans come in. Honestly, it's the best
0:35 proof that it works as you'll see in
0:37 just a moment. So, let's begin with a
0:39 little context to make this simple for
0:41 everyone to understand. Generally
0:44 speaking, accumulator bets in football
0:46 are usually a horrific proposition. And
0:48 here's why. Every leg that you add into
0:51 an aka multiplies the bookmakaker's
0:54 margin against you. Now, one bet, that's
0:56 usually bad enough. However, stacking
0:58 three or four or even five on top of
1:01 each other compounds their advantage
1:03 until it's practically impossible to win
1:06 over the longer term. This is exactly
1:08 why betting brands like Bet365, William
1:11 Hill, and Uni Bet love them. They
1:13 promote them everywhere because like the
1:15 lottery, most punters think of them as a
1:18 shot at fast, life-changing money, when
1:20 in reality, it's the bookies stacking
1:22 the profits at pace. the maths makes it
1:24 so. Now, the strategy that we're about
1:27 to break down here turns that logic on
1:29 its head with a few simple rules.
1:31 There's no way the bookies can stop it.
1:34 But first, an example to make my point.
1:36 By the way, if you want to see more
1:38 videos exposing bookies tricks, do me a
1:40 favor and smash the like button. It
1:43 tells me to make more of these. Okay, so
1:46 let's put this into practice with a real
1:48 football accumulator example. For the
1:50 first example, I've randomly picked a
1:52 simple three-legg football aka on the
1:55 EFL via beta's sports book. For those
1:58 unaware, that's the bookmaker side of
2:00 their website. Here are the legs. Wolves
2:05 to win at 2.8, Lincoln to win at 12.0,
2:08 and Reading to win at 5.0. So on Bair
2:11 Sportsbook, that three-fold returns £1,680
2:13 £1,680
2:16 from a£10 stake, which looks decent,
2:18 right? Well, presuming your account's
2:20 not restricted to 85 p like mine.
2:22 Anyway, you'll see why that is in just a
2:24 moment, but let's stop for a second and
2:27 break it down further. Every price hides
2:30 a probability. For example, decimal odds
2:33 of 2.8 imply a 35.7%
2:36 chance. Odds of 12.0 imply 8.3% chance
2:40 and odds of 5.0 imply a 20% chance. So,
2:42 overall, the odds of Bet Fair's
2:44 Sportsbook are saying that this
2:47 accumulator holds a 0.6% 6% chance of
2:48 actually happening. Now, in plain
2:50 English, that means they're saying that
2:54 this bet should land roughly 1 in 167
2:57 times. So, now let's talk about the real
2:58 chance of this treble actually coming
3:00 in. Because this is where things get
3:02 interesting. For those who aren't
3:04 familiar, Bet Fair also has a betting
3:06 exchange where customers can simply bet
3:10 against each other at fair market value.
3:12 Now, on Betar's exchange, those same
3:14 bets are priced slightly higher. Wolves
3:18 are at 3.25, Lincoln are at 17.5 and
3:21 Reading at 5.7. When you crunch the
3:24 numbers, the implied probability is only
3:27 0.3% for the total accumulator. So the
3:30 free market is basically saying this bet
3:34 is likely to land once every 324
3:36 times. So what's happening here? The bet
3:38 itself doesn't change, but the way it's
3:41 priced completely changes its value. On
3:42 the sports book, you're getting almost
3:44 half the payout compared to the
3:46 exchange, even though the risk is
3:49 exactly the same. And that right there
3:51 is the hidden tax on accumulators via
3:54 sports books. A10 stake landed at
3:58 exchange prices would return £3,242
4:01 instead of £1,680.
4:05 That's £1,562
4:08 more on the exact same bet just by
4:10 choosing where you place it. Now, I
4:12 should also add that 1,500 quid is the
4:15 sportsbook's real value margin. Crazy.
4:17 But there's another problem, and here it
4:19 is. Even though the exchange prices are
4:21 better, when we crunch the probabilities
4:23 together, the expected value of this
4:26 accumulator is still negative. Why?
4:28 Because around more popular leagues and
4:30 events, the exchange odds are extremely
4:32 accurate. Bookies have all the data,
4:34 staff, models, and algorithms. It's rare
4:36 to find consistent mistakes in those
4:39 odds that last very long. Plus, we
4:41 haven't factored in the 2 to 5%
4:43 commission that's deducted from a
4:45 winning bet on bet fair's exchange. So,
4:47 although this example is close to the
4:50 bets in pride probability, it's still a
4:52 losing strategy. And that is exactly my
4:54 point. This shows why most accumulators
4:57 fail. The maths simply isn't in your
4:59 favor unless the odds are mispriced. And
5:01 I know what you're thinking. How do you
5:03 actually spot those mispriced odds?
5:05 Well, hold that thought because answer
5:07 ties directly into the strategy rules
5:08 that I'm about to show you and we'll
5:10 come to that in a moment. Now, to win
5:12 long-term, the odds must be in our
5:15 favor. No ifs or buts. But don't lose
5:17 hope because I'm now going to outline
5:19 some simple rules and share an example
5:21 that shows you how to flip the entire
5:23 situation around. This is where the
5:25 strategy gets powerful.
5:28 All right, so if a usually horrific for
5:30 punters, how can there possibly be a
5:32 strategy that actually works? Now, if
5:34 you haven't realized yet, accumulators
5:36 themselves aren't the problem here. The
5:38 real problem is the bad odds on the
5:40 accumulator. If you stack good odds, the
5:42 aka suddenly becomes profitable and your
5:45 advantage is multiplied. This is what
5:47 professionals called plus EV betting.
5:49 Now, don't let that jargon put you off.
5:51 It just means positive expected value.
5:54 In plain English, it means that the odds
5:56 you're betting at are bigger than the
5:58 true chance of it actually happening.
6:00 That's all. If a coin flip is truly
6:02 50/50, but someone offers you odds of
6:05 6040, you take that bet every single
6:07 time because long-term you'll win. So,
6:08 the takeaway here is that finding
6:11 mispriced odds is the game. Every
6:13 professional gambler knows it. Now,
6:15 here's how we apply this accumulator
6:17 betting strategy. Instead of blindly
6:19 throwing in teams for a longot payout,
6:21 we stick to four basic rules. I'll put
6:24 these on the screen as a checklist. Rule
6:27 one, only combine plus EV singles. If a
6:29 price isn't good value on its own, it's
6:31 dead weight in your accumulator and
6:33 doesn't belong there. Rule two, keep it
6:35 to two, three, or maybe four legs
6:37 maximum. Anything more and the variance
6:39 just goes through the roof and you'll
6:41 need to place thousands of bets to get a
6:44 winner. Rule three, ladder singles where
6:46 you can. That means placing each leg
6:49 individually so even if one part goes
6:51 wrong, you don't lose everything. It
6:53 just makes sense. Now, obviously, these
6:55 rules only matter if you're picking bets
6:57 with value in the first place. And
6:59 that's the golden question. Where do you
7:01 actually find value? I'll give you a
7:03 clue in a minute. But first, only use
7:05 boosts from the book makers when they
7:08 actually flip an aer into positive
7:10 value. Bookies hand these out to
7:12 encourage you to bet more. But if you're
7:14 smart, you can use them to tip the odds
7:17 in your favor. Now, follow these simple
7:19 rules and an accumulator stops being a
7:21 mug's bet. In fact, it becomes quite the
7:23 opposite. And to show you exactly how it
7:25 works in practice, let's go on to
7:27 another example. One where the odds are
7:30 significantly in our favor. All right.
7:31 Now, for this second accumulator
7:34 example, I'm showing you an example with
7:37 Bet 365's prices. I'll explain how you
7:39 can get value prices like this and why
7:42 it works as we go. Because there's a few
7:44 subtle but important things that are
7:46 going on here which will probably be
7:48 missed by the broader audience. Now if
7:50 we create a three-leg aka with the
7:53 following legs Medina 17 to 10 which is
7:55 2.0 in decimal odds indicating a
7:58 probability of 37%. The draw on the
8:02 Monza match at 13 to 5 which is 3.60 in
8:04 decimal odds indicating a probability of 27.8%.
8:06 27.8%.
8:10 Suditrol at 13 to8 which is 2.625
8:12 in decimal odds indicating a probability
8:14 of 38.1%.
8:17 Now, on bet365 sports book, a £100 stake
8:21 would return around £2,551
8:23 for this bet. But here's the key. This
8:25 means that the accumulator's expected
8:28 probability is 3.9%. But let's check
8:30 that on the free market. Bet Fair's
8:32 exchange at kickoff. The same three
8:35 singles there are priced at Medina 2.66,
8:39 Monza draw at 3.1, Acitrol at 2.5. This
8:42 means that the best gauge of true value
8:44 at the most accurate time, kickoff, puts
8:46 the accumulator's combined probability
8:48 at 4.9%.
8:51 So, the accumulator on Bet 365 is not
8:53 just a punt. It's mathematically in our
8:56 favor. Now, if we multiply the exchange
8:58 prices together, the ladded return is £2,61.50,
9:04 almost £490
9:07 less than the same multiple on Bet365
9:09 Sportsbook. That additional £490 payout
9:12 is our profit margin. But why these
9:14 selections? And why is this accumulator
9:17 example overpriced? These are the most
9:19 important questions. And the answer is
9:21 simple. But before I explain, if you're
9:22 finding this valuable, please stop just
9:24 to drop a like on this video so others
9:27 benefit too. Now, the bets on that final
9:30 accumulator there are on Siri B, a lower
9:32 quality league with significantly lower
9:34 betting volumes and less public
9:36 information. That's accurate at least.
9:39 And also the prices were earlier in the
9:41 morning. So in layman's terms, they were
9:43 some of the most vulnerable betting
9:45 prices at their weakest point when
9:48 Bet365 had them incorrectly priced. It's
9:51 the total opposite of the first example,
9:53 if you remember, where three EFL matches
9:56 were at kickoff. And that's why this
9:58 accumulator betting strategy works. Some
10:00 actors will lose, yes, and others will
10:02 win. But across enough bets, if you're
10:04 always taking odds are bigger than the
10:06 bet's true chance or using a boost to
10:09 tip them into that sector, then you come
10:12 out ahead. The edge belongs to you, not
10:14 the bookmaker. Now, spotting these value
10:16 bets is the tricky part. And I've got a
10:18 full video coming on exactly how to do
10:19 that. So, make sure you hit subscribe
10:21 and you don't miss it. In the meantime,
10:23 check out this video here on my under
10:24 over betting strategy in the past. I'll
10:26 walk you through the exact process in
