0:02 Um,
0:07 okay. So, let's get started. Yeah. Okay.
0:09 5050. Someone said loud and clear. We
0:11 could hear you. Okay.
0:13 All right. Good. All right. So, let's
0:16 get started. I've been talking. [laughter]
0:17 [laughter]
0:20 Um, for some, one of you asked me during
0:22 Tuesday's live stream if John Ha is
0:25 still alive. I said I'll follow up on
0:28 that. My answer is everyone is trying to
0:31 find out if he's alive. So it's been
0:34 four weeks since the major shock when
0:36 Xiinping move against his two most
0:38 powerful generals, but the situation in
0:41 Beijing remains extremely sensitive.
0:43 Xiinping and the anti-che forces are
0:46 locked in a delicate balance. No one is
0:48 winning and neither side can afford to
0:51 lose. So far, no one knows where Jang
0:56 Yua and Lei are. We don't know. Um, we
0:58 don't even know what they are actually
1:01 accused of.
1:04 Let's just bring them to the to the screen.
1:06 screen.
1:08 Uh, because the state media keeps
1:11 shifting its narratives from sabotaging
1:14 Xiinping's authorities to corruption to
1:17 dividing the party. There has been no
1:19 official explanation of when they were
1:21 taken, how they were taken, where
1:24 they're being held, or which agencies
1:26 handling the investigation. None of the
1:30 most basic facts have been confirmed.
1:32 And throughout this entire drama,
1:34 several highly unusual signals have
1:37 remained unchanged. First, none of the
1:40 major military theaters or branches have
1:43 issued statements of loyalty. Um second,
1:45 the poli bureau and the poly bureau
1:47 standing committee still have not
1:51 reached any unified decision. At the
1:53 same time, the National People's
1:56 Congress is clearly holding the line. Um
1:58 the MPC convened but deliberately
2:02 avoided discussing this case altogether.
2:05 The sign could not be clearer. Um and
2:08 then last week the discipline inspection
2:10 commission even publicly signaled that
2:14 taking down the two generals was not its
2:17 operation. So this series of abnormal
2:20 moves shows just how awkward Xiinping's
2:23 position has become. As China's top
2:27 leader, he launched a move this big and
2:31 now has no way to wrap it up cleanly. Um,
2:33 Um,
2:36 and after one month, right, after a
2:40 one-monlong standoff, all attention has
2:44 now converged on a single question, a
2:48 dreadful one. Is Jang Yua even
2:53 still alive? And if he is, where is he?
2:57 Uh sources linked to his son say the
3:00 Jang family has tried every channel they
3:03 have but still cannot confirm his real
3:06 status. At the same time,
3:08 representatives from from several
3:11 princling families and uh different
3:14 party elders have reportedly pressured
3:17 Xiinping to produce the person.
3:21 So far the sheic camp has not responded convincingly.
3:23 convincingly.
3:26 This is where the two sides are stuck.
3:29 If Jang Yosha is still alive, then the
3:32 system needs to produce him quickly to
3:34 give the regime a procedural explanation
3:37 and patch this crisis over. Otherwise,
3:40 the entire regime is effectively being
3:46 roasted over on open uh open fire.
3:48 From the military to the bureaucratic
3:51 system, everyone is watching
3:53 how the drama unfolds.
3:56 So, right now, the internet is flooded
3:59 with different versions of the story.
4:02 The constant rumors that Jaya is still alive
4:04 alive
4:08 look less like transparency to me but
4:11 more like stalling for time. Um
4:13 Um
4:16 so on the surface everyone is asking the
4:19 same question is John alive and where is he?
4:20 he?
4:24 But the deeper danger isn't the rumor
4:27 itself. The real danger is that the way
4:29 this case was handled has crossed
4:32 longstanding red lines inside the CCP
4:36 system. And once those rules are broken,
4:39 fear spreads fast, especially among
4:41 people who used to believe they were untouchable.
4:42 untouchable.
4:44 So let's talk first talk about the
4:47 rumors. Uh the rumors
4:50 about John's whereabouts are everywhere.
4:53 Some claim he's being held at a Ministry
4:55 of Public Security training base in
4:58 Ching on the outskirts of Beijing.
5:02 Others say he has been sent to live or
5:04 quote unquote live in Shenzhen
5:07 under what they call organizational supervision,
5:09 supervision,
5:12 not a formal arrest, more like
5:17 downgraded handling or soft detention.
5:20 um where visits are allowed, but we know
5:23 that's a lie because his family has has
5:28 been denied of any um any visits. And
5:30 there were even wild stories about the
5:33 senior Guangong official visiting Jang
5:36 Yua for dinner complete with leaked menu.
5:38 menu.
5:40 Personally, I found these claims
5:43 extremely unreliable. If Jang Ya is
5:45 alive, Xiinping would never risk moving
5:47 him out of Beijing. In the current
5:50 situation, he would keep J under the
5:53 absolute control of Wong Xiaoong's
5:55 security apparatus.
5:59 Once Jang is moved out of uh Beijing and
6:02 outside Wang Xiaoong's tight control, it
6:05 becomes very hard to root out attempts
6:10 by military factions or other forces to
6:13 rescue him or extract him.
6:15 Um yesterday, new claims began
6:18 circulating that Janu may be on the
6:20 brink of death. And according to these
6:22 reports, he's being held at a central
6:26 guard bureau facility uh just south of
6:30 Beijing near uh Ting airport. He has
6:34 allegedly been treated
6:37 terribly uh possibly tortured and for a
6:41 period of time went on a hunger strike.
6:43 and the latest claim is that he may now
6:46 be in critical condition and undergoing
6:50 emergency medical treatment. These
6:52 reports remain unverified.
6:55 As of today, there is still no official
6:57 statement on the whereabouts of these
7:00 two generals. No time, no location, no
7:03 detention site, no investigating body,
7:07 nothing. Now, in CCP's history, this
7:10 level of total silence is absurd. very
7:13 absurd. Even during mouse era, people
7:16 still knew where his enemies were.
7:18 And at the very least, you would expect
7:21 a formal task force to be announced to
7:24 handle the case. But so far, there's no
7:26 sign that any formal mechanism has been activated.
7:29 activated.
7:32 Meanwhile, red families are demanding
7:36 answers. People are now openly saying
7:39 alive we want to see the person dead we
7:42 want to see the body and that line isn't
7:45 emotional venting it's political
7:49 language what it really means is this we
7:51 no longer trust Xiinping's internal
7:54 procedures enough is enough [clears throat]
7:55 [clears throat]
7:58 so in the past when senior CCP figures
8:00 were taken down even if the outside
8:03 world didn't know anything. Their
8:05 families always knew where the person
8:08 was being held and which unit was
8:12 responsible and the top leadership also
8:14 knew the details of the arrest and the investigation.
8:16 investigation.
8:19 Under normal circumstances,
8:22 you would know at least something. This
8:25 time, the time, the location, and the
8:27 responsible agencies are all
8:30 deliberately blurred. um
8:31 um
8:34 creating room for speculation that
8:37 something extremely serious has already happened.
8:39 happened.
8:42 Um so this is deeply unnerving for the
8:45 CCP elites and therefore different
8:48 factions are preparing their moves and
8:49 and [clears throat] Beijing's power
8:52 structure has entered a highly unstable
8:55 phase because they don't know if Janga
8:59 is still alive or not. and the feeling
9:04 uh the consensus isn't a positive one.
9:07 So now here's the real red line. It's
9:12 not just about where Janga is. Uh it's
9:15 it's a the real issue is how he was
9:18 taken. So to understand how serious this
9:21 is, we need to look at how the arrest or
9:23 more precisely the attack was carried out.
9:25 out.
9:28 Um, multiple versions circulating now
9:32 point to the same claim. That's early in
9:35 the morning of January 20 20th. The move
9:38 was made directly at the central party
9:41 school. The operation was carried out by
9:44 a special task force within the public
9:47 security system under Wang Xiao. Some
9:50 reports even claim foreign assassins
9:53 being involved. Now these claims are
9:56 unverified but the pattern they describe
9:59 is what matters and that is serious a
10:01 serious pattern.
10:05 Um here's the issue.
10:08 When the CCP deals with senior military
10:10 leaders cases are normally handled
10:13 through military channels or the PLA
10:17 system. Um
10:21 it it's usually um the party dis it's
10:24 usually the CMC mechanisms and the party
10:27 discipline bodies only work with the
10:31 military on the side and it's extremely
10:34 rare for public security
10:38 aka the police to step in directly and
10:41 the military has its own courts its own
10:43 political legal system its own
10:46 discipline inspection bodies and its own
10:49 detention facilities. The entire
10:51 enforcement chain operates within the
10:55 PLA. That isn't unique just to the CCP
10:58 or the PLA. Militaries around the world
11:00 function the same way. Civilian
11:03 authorities do not normally interfere in
11:06 military rules and discipline. Once
11:08 military affairs are handled by outside
11:10 civilian channels, the nature of the
11:13 system changes completely. And this is
11:16 where the system breaks because this move
11:18 move
11:21 um on the two generals humiliates the
11:24 military itself.
11:28 If public security directly took took
11:32 took down serving CMC leaders
11:34 um inside the PLA. This would be seen as
11:37 a deep humiliation.
11:40 It's the police apparatus pressing down
11:44 on the military. for Pa officers, it's
11:47 institutional humiliation.
11:51 Um, and also Jaya and Leo Juni both
11:53 carry enormous prestige within the
11:56 military and that's an objective fact.
11:59 You can't argue that. Um, and and
12:02 General Leo comes I mean General John is
12:04 a princling and General Leo comes out of
12:07 the field army system and is widely seen
12:11 as a comb oriented commander. So if
12:13 people like them are taken away by
12:16 police security, the shock to military
12:19 morale is enormous. [sighs]
12:23 Um and also there's a rule within the
12:27 red families. Um that is you can fight
12:30 but you can't cross the line into killing.
12:32 killing.
12:34 uh and this is a serious rule
12:38 established by Den Xiaoing
12:41 and his uh and the party elders during
12:45 Dung's time. Now Jaya is a princely. So
12:47 if he is
12:50 dead or you know because people can't
12:53 find him then there's a serious issue
12:56 here that means that red that line is
13:00 crossed the entire elite power
13:04 um or the entire elite power community
13:08 instantly loses its sense of safety. So
13:14 not just I mean they they crossed that
13:19 line and this is the first time um this
13:21 is the first time that this line is
13:25 seriously crossed. People are thinking
13:28 today it's tomorrow it could be any
13:31 family. [snorts] Uh and that fear is not
13:33 imaginary. This leads to two direct consequences.
13:35 consequences.
13:37 The first is the rest of the party is
13:40 losing trust in Xiinping. Second, every
13:43 faction is beginning to build its own
13:46 security mechanisms.
13:50 Imagine every uh when power elites stop
13:54 trusting the central security system or
13:57 the public security system and start
13:59 relying on their own protection networks.
14:01 networks.
14:04 the CCP stops being a highly centralized
14:07 party and starts to resemble a
14:11 multi-armed political block. Um,
14:14 when every uh red family is building
14:17 their own private army to protect
14:21 themselves, it's a classic pre-ivil war
14:23 condition, right? When everyone begins
14:25 preparing their own private security
14:29 forces. So at this point um at least
14:31 three major forces inside the CCP are
14:34 actively moving. I've I've told you uh
14:38 about I think two of them. So right now
14:41 there are three forces that are
14:44 responding to this crisis. The first is
14:49 the conservative camp associated within
14:51 where is he
14:54 this guy. They're still trying to
14:56 negotiate with Xiinping demanding to
14:59 know Jang Yosha's whereabouts and
15:03 according to uh people close to this um
15:07 source or or or this faction
15:09 um they have agreed to give Xiinping
15:12 three months to produce Jangosa. Um
15:15 Um
15:17 that's the the result of their
15:21 negotiation. uh partly to save phase for
15:24 the regime because Xiinping has secured
15:28 two uh visits the the visits of two head
15:30 heads of state uh Putin although Putin
15:33 is what not in good health Putin and
15:37 Trump. So uh allegedly this camp gave
15:39 Xinping three months to produce Jang
15:42 Yosha. Many insiders say this is the
15:44 worst possible compromise. three months
15:49 is too too long uh for for for anything
15:51 could happen and it could risk Jang
15:54 General Jang's life and buys Xiinping
15:57 time to flip the table. And the second
15:59 force is the bureaucratic establishment
16:02 and often linked to Huin Tao and Wing
16:04 Jaba and sometimes they're called the
16:08 reformist faction.
16:12 Um this camp is watching and waiting for
16:15 the right moment to move troops and
16:17 confront she.
16:20 Um and then the third force is the core
16:24 red princling clans
16:29 and they have gathered around
16:34 son of Xiaoing. And according to these
16:37 claims, Dun Puang has lost patience with Xiinping
16:39 Xiinping
16:41 and he believes Xi Jinping must be
16:45 removed even if the regime itself
16:49 fractures in the process and and breaks. Um
16:51 Um
16:53 the most
16:55 the most dangerous of the three is the
16:58 third camp. Their logic is a negotiation.
16:59 negotiation.
17:02 It's survival. They believe negotiating
17:05 with Xiinping only leads to losing
17:07 action in their view is the only way
17:10 out. They still have the resources, old
17:12 networks and their own security channels.
17:14 channels.
17:17 Um and online some princling voices are
17:23 now openly heard. Um and the message is
17:27 very clear. It's a warning. It says if
17:30 are not handed over
17:33 they will respond with nonprocedural methods
17:36 methods
17:38 nonprocedural methods
17:42 um and some even hinting at retaliation
17:46 against the shiinping camp. So at the
17:48 same time information controls are
17:51 clearly escalating
17:55 uh on X there are now largecale s uh
17:59 system systematic operations by the
18:02 CCP's propaganda apparatus
18:05 in the tens of millions right people
18:07 when people search for John Hosia
18:10 results are often flooded with porn
18:14 content posted by longrunning CCP linked
18:16 bot accounts
18:19 uh clearly meant to divert attention and
18:22 bury the topic. every time we have a
18:27 major event happening um that's you know
18:30 you see that on X you know then you're
18:33 you're constantly fed with porn contents
18:36 in language porn contents
18:39 and yet every day large numbers of
18:42 Chinese military officers
18:44 and officials
18:47 are still climbing the firewall to look
18:49 for real information
18:52 about Jangoa and Xiinping because they
18:55 need to judge whether the situation is
18:57 getting out of control and which side to
19:00 stand on. For them, this isn't abstract
19:02 politics. It's a matter of personal
19:05 survival. And that's why what happens
19:09 next won't be gradual. It will be it
19:11 will be um
19:14 it will be abrupt in my opinion. So,
19:17 what should we expect next? Right? This
19:19 is the million-dollar question.
19:22 Um, the Xiinping camp wants to drag this
19:26 out as long as possible to buy time
19:30 and try to flip the table
19:33 during the process. The anti-shi camp,
19:37 meaning the conservatives, the reformist
19:40 um, or the reformist bureaucratic block
19:43 and the princing clans,
19:45 they don't have much time left.
19:48 Unfortunately, time is not on their side.
19:50 side.
19:52 Why? Well, because
19:56 the two sessions are about to convene in
20:00 early March. Um, there are the delegates
20:03 to the National People's Congress and
20:05 members of the CPPCC,
20:07 the Chinese People's Political
20:10 Consultative Conference.
20:12 uh delegates to both organizations from
20:14 across the country will travel to Beijing
20:16 Beijing
20:20 to have the two meetings called the two sessions.
20:22 sessions.
20:25 This includes military delegates. In
20:29 principle, nearly all CCP generals are
20:32 MPC deputies
20:34 um who will be entering Beijing for the
20:37 two sessions and this is extremely
20:41 dangerous for them. Now, if before the
20:43 two sessions, Xiinping still refuses to
20:45 back down or
20:47 or
20:50 the the anti-shi camp failed to get the
20:53 situation under control, then every
20:57 general attending the meetings could be
21:00 pressured to publicly pledge loyalty to
21:03 Xiinping while they're in Beijing.
21:05 Right? It's one thing when these
21:08 generals are um with their troops at the
21:12 base. It's another once they go to
21:15 Beijing. So those who refuse could face
21:19 the same fate as Janga and Juni being
21:22 taken down in one sweep.
21:25 Uh last year Jang Yua used the two
21:27 sessions to remove several of she's
21:29 loyalists in the military including
21:32 Hweong. This year, Xiinping could use
21:35 the same session as a pretext to target
21:39 generals who refuse to show loyalty. Um,
21:41 Um,
21:43 so that's why time is running out for
21:46 the anti-che camp. They have to make up
21:49 their minds before the two sessions
21:52 which uh which are only what weeks. It's
21:54 just right right around the corner. It's
21:57 two weeks away. Um,
21:58 Um,
22:00 and if you remember at the end of
22:03 January, the poly bureau did not discuss
22:06 the the two generals case to
22:09 retroactively approved Xiinping's move.
22:12 That made the late February poly bureau
22:15 meeting the key focal point ahead of the
22:18 March 2 sessions.
22:23 Um, Huin and WJA reportedly want Hua.
22:25 Let me
22:28 here here's the guy
22:32 to move from the CPPCC
22:35 into the state council as vice premere
22:37 in charge of the economy at the two
22:40 sessions replacing
22:44 who is a shiinping loyalist.
22:48 Um the this move isn't just to replace
22:51 her phone, but it's the prerequisite
22:54 move to pave the way for Huang to
22:59 eventually uh to eventually
23:02 become the sixth CCP leader replacing Xiinping
23:04 Xiinping
23:07 uh at the 20th at the 21st party
23:13 congress. So they must put Guun Hua
23:16 in a substantial
23:19 political position in order to further
23:22 elevate him to replace Xiinping at the
23:25 21st party congress which is next year.
23:30 So that would that means that this
23:32 um if it must happen at the two sessions
23:35 in early March that means the late
23:37 February poly bureau meeting must
23:40 approve it. Um otherwise the two
23:43 sessions wouldn't be able to confirm it.
23:47 So right now the two moves are
23:50 uh two moves are colliding. Xiinping
23:52 wants the poly bureau to retroactively
23:54 approve his move against Jua and Liu
23:57 Juni, but the anti-Shi camp wants to
24:00 push Hua into the state council. These
24:02 are the key signals to watch in the
24:05 coming days because we're what on the
24:09 19th. Um the the spring festival holiday
24:12 runs until February the 14th. So the
24:14 poly bureau meeting could run anytime
24:19 from the 25th to the 20 what? 28th.
24:24 Yeah. Um and and but things are already
24:27 uh being worked on under the table right
24:29 now. This Luna New Year is ono is
24:32 unfolding amid intense infighting at the
24:35 very top. Now, if she still refuses to
24:38 back down, then according to these
24:40 claims, the party's top coordination and
24:43 decision-making body may be forced to
24:46 consider a forceful solution
24:49 or risk being overturned by the shei
24:52 camp. So, in recent days, red families
24:55 are said to have been highly active
24:58 behind the scenes. a close associate of
25:02 Xiinping and his wife Ponguan
25:05 who used to be
25:10 the commander of Shanghai garrison. His
25:12 name is Chen, who allegedly was
25:15 responsible for
25:19 uh the death of former premier Dian
25:21 uh was transferred to Beijing to take
25:25 charge of the capital garrison,
25:27 but most officers in the capital
25:30 garrison are reportedly aligned with Red
25:32 family networks.
25:34 Um it's said that the red the the the
25:36 red families
25:39 have a tight grip on the capital
25:42 garrison because they would not risk um
25:45 having the garrison Beijing garrison
25:50 fall to fall outside of to fall outside
25:53 of their control. So as a result, Chung
25:58 Yuan uh who is a major general uh is
26:01 said to have been sidelined and the
26:04 capital garrison is not under Xiinping's
26:07 full control for now.
26:09 Now what about the party elders in the
26:12 anti-shi camp? Are they safe in Beijing?
26:15 Some are said to have left the capital
26:18 to seek protection from field army
26:22 units. Some others remain in Beijing.
26:24 While the Central Guard Bureau could
26:27 theoretically detain elders or figures
26:30 like Huin Tao and WJaba, Xiinping
26:33 reportedly wouldn't dare, at least not
26:36 before he regains control of the PLA.
26:38 Without the military's backing, he
26:42 cannot risk an allout confrontation. If
26:44 clashes break out
26:49 uh and PLE units enters enter Beijing,
26:52 she's camp would likely collapse
26:57 quickly. Um now if PLE units were to
26:59 enter Beijing, the capital garrison is
27:03 said to remain neutral and not resist.
27:05 And then Xiinping's camp is described as
27:08 relying mainly on the Central Security
27:12 Bureau which has about 10,000
27:16 um soldiers and then the Ministry of
27:19 Public Security and several thousand
27:23 personnel in special security units.
27:26 Uh they're essentially Xiinping's
27:30 private army, private security force.
27:33 Um, and the Capital Garrison has long
27:36 coexisted with the Central Security
27:39 Bureau, and it's said that it's unlikely
27:41 to move against the PLA units because
27:44 they're under under the control of the
27:48 red families. So, if you line up
27:50 everything, people say this will make
27:53 the PLA having an advantage over
27:58 Xiinping's forces. Right now, those who are
27:59 are
28:02 uh openly backing Xiinping are said to
28:06 be mainly hardcore loyalists from his
28:10 Fuian network um aka
28:13 uh Wang Xiaoong and Taii.
28:15 Other factions, other people are waiting
28:20 to see who wins before choosing sides. Um
28:30 so and um it's saying that if Huin
28:32 were to make a decisive call and order
28:36 PLA units into Beijing
28:38 uh Xiinping's camp could be brought down.
28:40 down.
28:45 uh and they shiinp poss could possibly
28:48 be given the option to step down due to
28:54 illness just to save his face. Um but
28:57 conservatives the conservative faction
29:00 uh warns has warned that such a move
29:03 could split the party uh pushing Huin
29:07 Tao and Wjaba to hold back and seek a
29:10 negotiated outcome. and that's why
29:12 they're stuck.
29:15 Where's Huin? Yeah. [gasps]
29:20 So, talks have reportly dragged on. Um,
29:23 and the the reality is after all this time,
29:25 time,
29:29 is said to be unable to confirm if Ja is
29:33 still alive or not. Um, and Shiin has
29:36 denied family visits.
29:38 uh fueling speculation that the two
29:41 generals may already be dead. [snorts] So
29:44 So some
29:46 some individuals
29:51 uh okay
29:52 okay
29:55 is said that he no longer trusts the
29:59 conservatives anymore. He suspects that
30:01 they might have already cut a deal with
30:05 Xiinping's camp to buy time. Um
30:07 Um
30:10 but without PLA's backing, red families
30:12 alone cannot confront the tens of
30:15 thousands of armed personnel Xiinping
30:17 controls in Beijing. Um
30:19 Um
30:22 so it's in a very delicate situation.
30:27 Um and there are even
30:33 um doubts about this man.
30:36 Where is he? Okay, this is the newly
30:38 promoted commander of the central
30:40 theater command which has the
30:43 responsibility of protecting the capital
30:46 city. His name is Hen. He just got
30:49 promoted what last December.
30:52 Um, now he does not carry the same
30:55 prestige as Jango and Liuni and
30:59 therefore he he
31:02 may be lacking um abilities in
31:05 stabilizing Beijing in the case war
31:09 really breaks out and some even suspect
31:11 that he could be suddenly targeted by
31:13 Xiinping's camp. His life could be in
31:16 danger. So that's why there is uh a
31:20 calling there's uh some voices urging
31:23 General Leo Yuan to lead the PLA and act
31:27 quickly uh and not miss the strategic
31:30 window that they still have. Now where's
31:32 where's Li? Oh yeah. [snorts] So their
31:38 their strong voice is calling because
31:41 um General Ley has the prestige
31:46 uh to lead the PLA as the interim leader
31:49 and take decisive
31:53 um take make a decisive move
31:58 um to to take down the the the Xiinping
32:02 uh faction. So he he is the one who many
32:05 people believe um can lead the PLA right
32:10 now. So under these circumstances um the
32:14 claims suggest that only Luan leaving
32:17 leading the heavy units of of the 82nd
32:21 group army into Beijing could decisively
32:24 def defeat Xiinping's camp.
32:27 But pre-battle assessments anticipate
32:29 heavy casualties potentially in the
32:33 thousands. And this is a burden uh Huin
32:36 and Wabo have never faced before. As a
32:39 result, they're said to be very cautious
32:42 with that decision. Now, if they
32:45 ultimately refuse to deploy the PLA into
32:49 Beijing and if Xiinping refuses to back
32:54 down, then that would be
32:59 that means Hua cannot move from the CC CPPCC
33:00 CPPCC
33:02 into the state council at the two
33:05 sessions. That means he will not be
33:08 positioned as Xiinping's replacement at
33:11 the 21st party congress. It means that
33:14 Xi Jinping could entrench himself indefinitely.
33:16 indefinitely.
33:20 Um, he could rule indefinitely and China
33:23 will become uh a a largersized North
33:25 Korea. [sighs]
33:28 So to sum up, with the two sessions
33:31 approaching in early March, um MPC
33:34 deputies and CPPCC members from across
33:36 the country, including military
33:40 generals, must enter Beijing. And since
33:44 most CCP generals are are going to be in
33:47 Beijing, she would have the opportunity
33:51 to pressure them to pledge loyalty.
33:53 uh and those who refuse could face the
33:55 same fate as General Jang Yosha and
34:00 Yoji. And that is why time is of essence
34:02 and that is why the late February poly
34:05 bureau meeting is so critical. If the
34:07 party's top decision-making and
34:09 coordination body failed to deal with
34:12 Xiinping in the coming days, Xiinping
34:16 could regain control of the military and
34:20 completely reverse the situation.
34:24 So you see uh the Johnny case is not at
34:26 its core about one individual being
34:30 taken down. It's the entire struggle
34:33 machine turning back on the very center
34:35 of power.
34:39 when the two um factions
34:43 I I should say when when when
34:45 the top leadership no longer trusts each
34:49 other and begins to see each other as threats,
34:51 threats,
34:54 the system becomes unsafe for everyone.
34:57 Um so
35:00 um where is Janga? I mean the question
35:06 where John is is um is is a is a
35:09 dangerous one to answer
35:12 because the implied answer I mean first
35:15 of all nobody has the answer but the
35:18 longer it drags on then people inevitably
35:19 inevitably
35:22 can make their own conclusions
35:25 and then that means um the two sides are
35:31 in a deadly fight. um the the system
35:34 probably c can break from within.
35:37 All right. Um with all that said, I want
35:40 to mention my new video for the Looking
35:42 Glass channel. It's a video that you
35:46 will love because it's the perfect
35:49 balance between geopolitics
35:53 and culture. It talks about a banned
35:56 book in China. It talks about why
35:59 Xiinping is so
36:01 why Chinese are so obsessed with a
36:04 crooked tree in Beijing. And it talks
36:07 about Xiinping's past life. The
36:10 parallels between him and the last
36:12 emperor of the Ming dynasty who hung
36:16 himself in in a in in a garden outside
36:19 Beijing. Um,
36:22 I I I I think that that's probably one
36:25 of the it will be one of the most
36:28 popular stories uh that perfectly balances
36:30 balances
36:33 culture and and politics. All right. Uh
36:35 Nicole, if you could paste the link here
36:37 for people to see, that would be great.
36:40 Now, I want to answer a question that
36:44 was sent to me today from Linda.
36:48 She sent me a Reuters article and the
36:51 title is how China plans to dominate
36:55 global trade long after Trump. And so
36:56 the article basically is saying that
36:59 China sees an opening to turn President
37:02 Donald Trump's tariffs to its advantage
37:05 by reshaping global trade in ways that
37:09 would insulate its 19 trillion economy
37:15 from US pressure far into the future.
37:17 Um, first of all, China's economy isn't
37:21 $19 trillion. It's grossly overstated.
37:29 This is my branded cup.
37:33 You can order it from the link below.
37:37 Yes. Okay, let's back to this question.
37:40 So uh the article claims that uh Reuters
37:42 conducted a review of 100 Chinese
37:45 language articles
37:48 um by statebacked trade scholars written
37:56 and it reviews a uh systematic push by
37:59 China's policy advisors to reverse
38:02 engineer US trade policy and neutralize
38:06 Washington's containment strategy. So
38:08 the article is saying China is now
38:11 putting that blueprint into action and
38:14 one of the examples it quoted was the
38:17 deal reached with Canada
38:20 as a result of Carney's visit to Beijing um
38:23 um
38:26 which I mean the the deal slashes
38:29 tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and
38:31 the article says that it was the first
38:35 of many aimed at breaking US leverage.
38:38 According to interviews with 10 people,
38:40 including Chinese officials and trade diplomats,
38:43 diplomats,
38:46 I don't know. I mean, I really think
38:49 this is CCP narratives. I know, but I
38:53 need to give you um uh good good
38:58 analysis. I mean, it's so cleverly done.
39:00 It's almost done as an objective
39:04 reporting by the Reuters with random
39:07 reason, but it's not convincing to me at
39:11 all. Here's my view. Well, [snorts] this
39:14 Reuters piece only tells one side of the
39:17 story. It leaves out the bigger context.
39:19 Now, before Trump's first trade war, the
39:21 US essentially ran an open door system.
39:24 Anyone could come in. China took full
39:26 advantage of that, right? China took
39:29 advantage of that openness and embedded
39:32 itself deeply across American supply
39:35 chains, markets and technological ecosystems.
39:37 ecosystems.
39:39 Then the US changed the rules of the
39:41 game in 2016 actually [clears throat]
39:46 after uh Trump came to um came to the
39:49 office. So this study uh this study
39:53 allegedly well they studied articles
39:55 from 2017 that's during Trump's first term.
39:57 term. So
40:00 So
40:04 what at the time uh during Trump's first um
40:06 um
40:09 term I should say Washington basically
40:11 said the door is no longer wide open.
40:13 We'll keep it open for those who play by
40:16 the rules and respect basic norms, but
40:18 not for actors who exploit the system
40:21 while undermining it. Once the door was
40:24 only half open, the country most
40:29 affected was China. Um, and and what
40:31 we're seeing now is predictable
40:33 behavior. China is going around the
40:36 house looking for side doors and windows
40:38 to get back in.
40:42 That includes working through
40:43 third countries and trying to build
40:46 alternative trade routes with US allies
40:50 and neighbors. It's working very hard.
40:52 But here's the key point. The Reuters
40:55 the Reuters article
40:58 missed or glossed over.
41:01 China's maneuvering doesn't mean the US
41:03 made the wrong decision by narrowing
41:06 access. In fact, whatever China is
41:08 trying to do now is still far less
41:11 damaging than what happened when the
41:14 door was fully open. And China had
41:16 unrestricted access to the US market and
41:19 techn technologies.
41:21 So yes, China is actively looking for
41:24 loopholes. But no, this doesn't mean
41:27 Washington's strategy is failing. It
41:31 seems the pressure is working. Um and
41:33 most importantly, none of these Chinese
41:35 efforts can be called a real success
41:38 yet. Uh there are workarounds. Uh the
41:42 Reuters framing just suggest
41:44 suggests that the US is losing the game
41:47 by tightening access. I mean that's what
41:51 the article is hinting. Um I think
41:52 that's the wrong conclusion. I think it
41:56 could be affected by their
41:58 uh what anti-Trump syndrome. What do you
42:02 call that? Trump derangement syndrome.
42:04 The real question isn't isn't whether
42:07 China is trying to circumvent US pressure.
42:09 pressure.
42:12 That that's un that's unavoidable. The
42:14 real question is whether those attempts
42:16 are actually restoring China's old level
42:19 of access and leverage
42:22 so farther or not. So that article does
42:27 not concern me and in fact that's why
42:30 you know some of these western articles are
42:33 are um
42:35 um
42:38 what can I say there are
42:41 they're done diligently with facts and
42:43 good reporting but
42:45 but
42:47 they're really missing the big picture.
42:49 I feel like the journalist doesn't
42:52 doesn't think logically. They they per
42:54 they intentionally missed the big
42:57 picture. They only ppoint a pinpoint a
43:01 small quote unquote issue and they
43:04 missed the big picture. All right,
43:06 that's the question I got today from
43:08 Vinda. Here's that was that was my answer.
43:10 answer.
43:13 Okay. Um,
43:15 I saw some super sticker questions flew
43:22 All right. Um,
43:31 oh, here we go. JK Ni7,
43:34 you're the best on info. You're always
43:36 very beautiful. Oh, thank you. Oh, I
43:39 want to say um I'm so happy to hear that
43:43 Alicia Lou won gold in ladies skating,
43:46 figure skating. Isn't that great? I
43:48 mean, this is what the first gold medal
43:53 in ladies single skating in 24 years.
43:55 Um I'm just very very happy for her and
43:59 her family. She deserves it. a after
44:03 that long journey uh a long battle with
44:06 the CCP starting with her father and and
44:09 with her. I think I'm just very very happy.
44:18 fanatic forager
44:20 forager
44:24 stalling for time wouldn't be off the
44:28 marks. Stalin by comparison Stalin is pale
44:30 pale right.
44:32 right.
44:37 Yeah. Whatever's happening inside Jonah outperforms
44:39 outperforms
44:42 um Stalin question. How long will they wait?
44:44 wait?
44:46 How long will they wait? I mean the
44:48 people in the military for them to
44:52 either be seen or their bodies produced
44:55 before they start going wild. What's the
44:57 timeline? Well, like I said, the
45:01 timeline is the two sessions which is
45:02 right around the corner. Well, it's
45:07 early March. Um, it's
45:12 20 two two to three weeks away. So, it's
45:14 not a good thing when all these generals
45:16 who have who have collectively remained quiet
45:18 quiet
45:20 um and watched on the sideline to show
45:23 up in Beijing.
45:26 Um they could be put they could be put
45:29 under tremendous pressure and Xiinp
45:32 could coers coers them, force them to
45:37 pledge loyalty and then declare victory.
45:39 Someone said, "Hi, finally caught your
45:41 life." Well, thank you. Thank you and welcome.
45:43 welcome.
45:51 Brian Cow. Well, thank you, Brian, as always.
45:53 always. Um,
46:00 all right. Um, questions. There's a Kevin
46:02 Kevin
46:06 Stanky Witz. Is this CCP internal
46:09 leadership fight good for us especially
46:12 during Iran conflict? Is CCP harmless to
46:15 foreigners during this party leadership fight?
46:21 Of course, this internal leadership
46:25 fight is good for the US as long as the US
46:28 US
46:31 reads correctly into that and knows how
46:34 to take advantage of it.
46:39 But if the west or US fails [snorts]
46:41 to recognize
46:42 what's actually happening, then they
46:46 missed a great opportunity,
46:48 right? In countering the CCP
46:51 and the second question, is CCP harmless
46:52 to foreigners during this party
46:54 leadership fight? Well, it depends who
47:01 you are. I think didn't our um state
47:04 um state department warns people about
47:07 going to China. I don't think this is a
47:09 I don't think this is a good time to go
47:11 to China
47:16 in general. I mean you have to I mean if
47:18 you have to go then you go but just for
47:21 leisure travel and all that I don't
47:23 think so. And actually things are
47:27 getting so expensive in China now. Um or
47:29 life in in China is very difficult for
47:31 the ordinary people. But if you but if
47:34 you're a foreign tourist visiting China,
47:38 I'm sure you will still find it to be
47:41 affordable. Um but people living in
47:42 China say that things are very expensive.
47:44 expensive. Yeah.
48:03 legal eagle [sighs]
48:04 [sighs]
48:08 in a rule of law country. There is a
48:14 to allow the courts of law to look at
48:17 whether the arrest was lawful. China
48:19 claims to abide by rule of law. There's
48:22 it's a lawless state.
48:26 The laws are subject to interpretation by
48:28 by
48:32 the party. The law is law exists as decoration.
48:42 Um
48:44 because Xiinping's arrest of the two
48:46 generals are complete completely violates
48:49 violates
48:51 any internal rules and regulations or
49:01 Mike Stewart said Victor Gal uh
49:03 uh
49:06 accidentally inadver inadvertently uh
49:09 proved that corruption is rampant in China
49:10 China
49:14 uh in August 2024. Yeah.
49:15 Yeah.
49:18 Oh, good. good that he finally spoke
49:27 I think life must be very difficult for
49:29 people like Victor Gao and what the
49:32 other the other scholar
49:36 who wants to defend China. Those
49:39 China see I shouldn't say China defender
49:42 Cece those scholars who defends the
49:44 regime they're going to find their life increasingly
49:47 increasingly difficult.
49:48 difficult. Um,
49:51 Um,
49:54 Kevin. Okay. Canada will not exist in a
49:57 year or two. As after oil rich Alberta
50:00 votes for independence from Canada this
50:02 fall, Canada will go broke without its
50:05 oil taxes. Uh,
50:07 Uh,
50:10 and Quebec will leave next.
50:13 Yeah, Canada is a great country. Um, I
50:16 have a lot of friends in Canada.
50:18 It has the best Chinese food in North America.
50:20 America.
50:23 Um, it's just very sad to see what its
50:26 government has done or its politicians
50:30 have done. It's disappointing. Yeah.
50:37 Nelson K. Nelson, you said Putin is not
50:39 in good health. What have you heard that
50:42 we have not? Can be worse than Trump's
50:46 health, can it? over here [laughter] um
50:49 um
50:54 at the um Munich Security Council,
50:57 didn't um Zalinski made a comment saying
51:00 that he's much younger than Putin and
51:02 then he also made a comment that saying
51:06 that uh Putin didn't have much time
51:10 left. Uh and right after that uh a ch a
51:12 former Chinese journalist working for
51:17 the Apple Daily uh revealed that Beijing
51:22 had has sent Beijing sent a medical team
51:24 from the milit military hospital, the
51:27 301 G military general military
51:30 hospital. Uh the 301 hospital, the one
51:35 that designated to treat CCP leaders. uh
51:39 they sent a medical team to Moscow
51:41 together with a medical team from Pingyong
51:42 Pingyong
51:45 because in North Korea there is a a
51:49 similar organization dedicated to the
51:52 longevity of its top leader the the Kim
51:55 family. And so that organization, the longevity
51:57 longevity
52:00 institute in Pyongyang
52:03 uh sent its team to Beijing and together
52:06 they flew to Moscow
52:10 and together the they there were six PLA
52:13 young PLE soldiers
52:17 uh who went with the medical teams and
52:22 this all six PLA soldiers had typea blood.
52:23 blood.
52:28 So, and and that post alleged that Putin
52:31 has not been seen in 13 days.
52:33 Uh I think this was actually
52:35 acknowledged by Western media. He has
52:39 not been seen in 13 days. So that's the
52:42 western media. And then Zalinski made
52:45 that eerie remark. And then you have a
52:47 Chinese journalist
52:50 uh breaking the news that both North
52:54 Korea and China uh have sent emergency
52:56 medical teams to Moscow. Well, put all
52:58 of that together. I don't think Trump I
53:01 don't think Putin is in very good health
53:04 or very where he his health is in question.
53:06 question.
53:09 All right. Legal ego. I agree. 3 months
53:11 is far too long. They need to have the
53:15 courage to be decisive. And if Jung can
53:17 be produced, they act swiftly to remove
53:19 the feather. [laughter]
53:23 I love that analogy. Then gaining kudos
53:26 with the rest of the world. I agree. You know,
53:28 know,
53:31 I mean, the Xiinping's advantage is he
53:35 is fast. He acted he acted fast. He's ruthless.
53:36 ruthless.
53:38 Whereas the other ones, I mean, this is
53:41 the perfect example to show you when a
53:44 gentleman fights with a ruffian. If the
53:46 gentleman is not decisive, is not
53:50 courageous, you know, if he is obsessive
53:52 with his gentlemanly manner, he's going
53:56 to lose. Um, that's the perfect example. [snorts]
54:10 Okay. Um, clipai, the PLA can fix this
54:14 cowards if they don't
54:16 uh they can you think they can fix this?
54:18 Well, I I'm sure they I'm sure the
54:22 generals wouldn't just uh throw up their
54:25 hands and just give in, you know, and go
54:28 to Beijing and and and don't do anything because
54:29 because
54:31 their life could be on the line if they
54:34 do nothing. Someone said, "Long live Canada."
54:36 Canada."
54:38 Brian Cobb would like to know your
54:41 thoughts on Secretary Marco Rubio's
54:44 speech at the recent Munich conference.
54:47 I heard parts of it. It's it's very well
54:50 said. It's a speech that we need to
54:52 hear. It's a speech that needs to be
54:57 delivered. Um he's very articulate. He's
55:05 Thank you for bringing that up. Okay.
55:07 Did I reach the bottom? No. I think
55:10 there's some more. Oh,
55:13 someone say
55:16 someone say are you asking for Oh,
55:18 here's anyone. Okay, that I think that's
55:21 Oh, here's a question.
55:24 Uh, could you do a talk on how China has
55:27 influenced Canada's health care system?
55:30 Oh, not just Canada's health system. I
55:33 mean, China has infiltrated Canada everywhere.
55:35 everywhere.
55:40 So, it's very sad. Same with Australia.
55:43 I mean, the United States is, I think,
55:45 the only Western country that's still
55:48 trying to hold its ground. Um, and I
55:50 think it's it's not so easy for the U
55:52 for for the Chinese to infiltrate the
55:55 US. Partly because the it [snorts and clears throat]
55:56 [snorts and clears throat]
56:01 um it's a a larger country. I mean, by
56:03 large, I don't mean geographically
56:07 larger. um but with more people and more
56:11 resourceful. I think the cowboy spirit
56:15 of Americans has to do with it. I think
56:18 by comparison, if you compare all all
56:21 western nations, I think the Americans
56:24 are the least
56:27 um obsessed with their gentlemanly manner.
56:29 manner.
56:30 [laughter and gasps] I think the
56:32 Americans are very down to earth and
56:34 they're very direct. They're very straightforward
56:35 straightforward
56:37 compared to the um compared with the the
56:41 the Europeans. So they're less that
56:43 quality make them less likely to be
56:46 fooled by the CCP. If you if the
56:49 Europeans are too
56:51 um I don't know I don't know what to
57:00 Okay. All right. That's all. Um, oh,
57:03 here's a question from someone asked me
57:06 about Jeff Epstein.
57:08 Where did that go? That question flew by.
57:15 Um, sorry, I I missed the question
57:18 someone asked me. Oh, here. Uh, does
57:21 Professor Jeffrey Saxs work for the
57:24 Chinese government? He is never critical
57:30 Um,
57:32 I don't know. Uh, I I've seen some of
57:35 his talks.
57:38 If someone is never critical of
57:43 Beijing, I see a problem.
57:46 If if someone is persistently critical
57:48 of the United States, but never critical
57:53 of China, the CCP, I see a problem. That
57:55 That's just my general assessment. I
57:58 don't know who he works for. Um, but
58:00 he's very eloquent and made some good points.
58:09 Okay. Someone say, I want to know your
58:11 opinion about the speech of Taiwan
58:13 president that CCP will not stop from
58:17 Taiwan invasion but invade more after that.
58:19 that.
58:21 I think that's true. That's a very
58:24 accurate observation of the CCP. CCB's ambition
58:26 ambition
58:30 uh as stated is to take over the world.
58:33 The first step is Taiwan. Once they gain
58:36 control of Taiwan, uh we lost the
58:40 Pacific to to Beijing. So, I think
58:43 that's a good assessment.
58:54 All right. I think I'll end here.
58:56 because um
58:59 it's been an hour and I'm a little
59:05 thirsty and hungry. All right, so um
59:07 I'll be back this weekend. I may not be
59:09 able to do a program on Saturday, but
59:12 I'll definitely do a program on Sunday.
