0:02 The White House says air strikes on Iran
0:05 remain on the table as US President
0:08 Donald Trump weighs up his response to a
0:11 crackdown on nationwide protests. Rights
0:12 groups say they have confirmed the
0:14 killing of many hundreds of people
0:16 during the demonstrations, the largest
0:19 in several years. The Islamic regime
0:21 blames the bloodshed on foreign
0:23 interference and has ordered counter
0:25 rallies in an attempt to regain the
0:28 initiative with progovernment supporters
0:30 flooding the streets on Monday. Iran's
0:33 president Masud Peshkan was among those
0:36 joining the crowds.
0:38 And with the threat of US intervention
0:40 in Iran looming, President Donald Trump
0:43 says the leaders of the Islamic Republic
0:46 have called him to negotiate.
0:50 Bodies in bags at a morg outside Tehran.
0:52 Hospitals with beds full of injured
0:54 people seen here in footage verified by
0:57 DW's Farsy service. Protesters
0:59 vandalizing the Abuzar mosque before
1:02 allegedly setting it on fire. Iran could
1:05 be at a tipping point.
1:07 US President Donald Trump says Iran
1:09 wants to talk while insisting military
1:11 action is still on the table.
1:13 >> The leaders of Iran called they want to
1:15 negotiate. I think they're tired of
1:18 being beat up by the United States.
1:22 >> Iran wants to negotiate. Yes.
1:24 >> In public, Iranian politicians have
1:26 blamed the US and Israel for the
1:28 protests, saying the country is ready
1:30 for war, but not ruling out negotiations.
1:36 Negotiations must be serious and genuine,
1:38 genuine,
1:42 not issuing orders and dictating terms,
1:45 which is the habit of some countries.
1:47 If talks break down or if Trump attacks
1:50 Iran preemptively, the Islamic Republic
1:52 has threatened to strike US military
1:54 bases in the region. Many are close by
1:56 in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab
1:59 Emirates, and Iraq. It could also strike
2:00 shipping vessels in the narrow straight
2:03 of Hormuz, a choke point through which
2:06 much of the world's oil traffic passes.
2:09 But Iran's leverage here may be limited.
2:11 It attacked a US base in Qatar last
2:13 summer with missiles, all of which were
2:20 Negotiations with the US could include
2:22 relief from economic sanctions which
2:25 have throttled the Iranian economy. The
2:27 country's nuclear program, thought to
2:29 have been set back after US and Israeli
2:32 strikes last year, could also be up for
2:34 discussion. A deal to dismantle that
2:36 program would be a major victory for Trump.
2:42 For many here, a deal between the US and
2:44 Thrron would be bittersweet. Though it
2:46 could make economic conditions easier,
2:48 it would also allow the regime to carry
2:51 on. Exactly what protesters want not to happen.
2:53 happen.
2:55 It's great to welcome Bradley Bowman
2:57 back to DW. He's with a center on
2:59 military and political power at the
3:01 Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
3:03 Hi there. Now, Donald Trump seems very
3:06 invested in what's happening in Iran.
3:09 Why do you think that is?
3:11 >> I think uh President Trump is vested in
3:13 the developments in Iran because he
3:15 understands that America has important
3:18 interests there. Uh and he's uh he's
3:20 issued some public uh warnings or
3:22 redlines. You know, he said on January
3:25 2nd, "If Iran shoots and violently kills
3:27 uh peaceful protesters, the United
3:28 States of America will come to the
3:30 rescue. We are locked and loaded and
3:34 ready to go." He uh he posted. So, uh it
3:35 appears as your correspondent has
3:37 highlighted that Iran has just done
3:38 that. They heard his warnings. They
3:40 shrugged and they proceeded to cross his
3:43 red line. So, um, now we have the regime
3:45 blocking internet access, trying to make
3:46 it more difficult for the Iranian people
3:48 to communicate with one another, and of
3:50 course, trying to hide what the regime
3:52 is doing to the Iran people, and that is
3:54 killing them. So, you know, I think
3:56 coming off uh the 12-day war where the
3:58 US conducted successful military
4:00 operations against Iran and the success
4:02 of the operation in Venezuela, President
4:05 Trump will not hesitate to use military
4:07 force in Iran if he thinks it's in his
4:08 and America's national security
4:11 interest. And I think Iran realizes that
4:12 and that's why they're reaching out to
4:14 have negotiations because this regime in
4:17 Iran has consistently used negotiations
4:19 when it's feeling pressure, when it
4:21 wants to alleviate that pressure uh and
4:23 it wants to avoid the consequences of
4:24 its behavior.
4:27 >> Let's talk a bit more about that. If the
4:30 regime is open to talk as as Trump says
4:32 it is, what could or would its leaders
4:35 be actually willing to negotiate about?
4:37 You know, I've been following Iran for a
4:40 long time, and I I I have not seen and I
4:42 do not see now any evidence that this
4:44 regime is willing to make serious
4:46 goodfaith concessions related to its
4:49 nuclear program, its ballistic missiles,
4:50 and its support for terrorism. So, I
4:52 think they will continue to use
4:54 negotiations in the way I just
4:56 described, and I think it's frankly a
4:57 trap that the United States should not
4:59 fall into. You know, fool fool me once,
5:01 uh, you know, shame on me. Fool me 50
5:03 times, shame on us. and and I do worry
5:05 that the Trump administration is at risk
5:07 of falling into that trap again.
5:09 >> What should it do to not fall into that
5:11 trap as you've described it?
5:13 >> I think uh it should, you know, as a
5:15 general rule in US foreign policy, I
5:17 think we should issue warnings and red
5:19 lines reluctantly, but once you've
5:21 issued them, which President Trump has
5:23 done, you have to back them up lest your
5:25 adversaries and your allies conclude
5:27 that we're all talk. And so I think if
5:30 the murder of innocent Palestinians,
5:33 innocent Iranians continues uh uh that
5:35 uh that Trump will have to use military
5:37 force. Um and I think this
5:40 administration in Iran will view itself
5:42 in an existential moment and it may act
5:44 more aggressively in than it did during
5:46 the 12-day war, but that will only
5:48 escalate the military actions of the
5:50 Trump administration.
5:52 >> Let's uh open this up and look at the
5:54 wider context. We've seen military
5:56 action in Venezuela, threats against
5:59 Greenland, now a possible uh military
6:02 intervention in Iran. How would you
6:05 categorize or describe this last week
6:06 and a half of Donald Trump's second term?
6:08 term?
6:10 This has been an extraordinary week and
6:11 a half. There's headlines I never
6:13 thought I would see. But the broader
6:15 grand strategic point here with respect
6:17 to Iran is that I think the United
6:18 States and Darius say our European
6:20 allies confront the most daunting
6:22 geostrategic environment we've seen
6:25 since 1945. And one of the reasons for
6:26 that is how China, Russia, Iran, and
6:29 North Korea are cooperating. And Tran is
6:30 the weakest member of the axis of
6:32 aggressors, but they've been punching
6:34 above their weight, helping to support
6:36 Putin's aggression in Ukraine, fueling
6:38 Beijing's massive military modernization
6:40 expansion effort, and supporting
6:41 terrorism in the Middle East. I mean,
6:43 let's remember that the Russian drone
6:45 incursions of NATO airspace are thanks
6:47 at least indirectly to the support of
6:49 Putin they've received from Iran. So, if
6:51 the I'll end with this. If the Iranian
6:53 people are finally able to have a
6:54 government that represents their true
6:56 interests and is focused on their
6:58 well-being rather than domestic
7:00 oppression, the export of terrorism uh
7:02 and the pursuit of nuclear weapons, it
7:03 would be a victory both for the Iranian
7:05 people and I would say a major grand
7:07 strategic win for Europe and for the
7:08 United States.
7:10 >> Thanks a lot for that, Bradley. That's
7:12 Bradley Bowman with the Foundation for
7:14 Defense of Democracies.
7:16 >> Thank you.
7:18 >> Well, part of the difficulty in
7:20 assessing what's been happening in Iran
7:22 is the fact that the government has cut
7:24 off the internet and telephone links.
7:26 One of the few ways to exchange
7:28 information with the outside world has
7:30 been through Starlink satellite
7:33 connections. Starlink is owned by US
7:36 space technology company Space X. It
7:38 relies on a constellation of satellites
7:40 to transmit internet data. 29 of them
7:44 were aboard this rocket last month. Iran
7:46 Iran has been jamming the signals, but
7:48 users there have had some success
7:50 getting through. US President Donald
7:53 Trump has spoken to SpaceX boss Elon
7:56 Musk to see what can be done to help
7:58 more Iranians get online through Starlink.
8:04 >> And it's great to welcome Medi Yayan
8:06 Jad. Now, he is an Iranian digital
8:08 rights and democracy activist. He joins
8:11 us from Los Angeles. Welcome to you. As
8:14 I understand, you've previously been
8:16 involved in efforts to send Starlink
8:19 user terminals to activists and citizen
8:21 journalists in Iran. Could you tell us
8:24 why is Starlink so important for Iranian
8:32 As as you mentioned, we've been involved
8:33 in sending starlings to Iranian
8:36 activists and citizen journalists in
8:40 Iran because this is the only way to
8:42 stay connected with the individuals on
8:45 the ground and get the videos and images
8:48 of all these protests to outside Iran.
8:50 The Iranian government often wants to
8:53 crack down uh during a a full internet
8:57 shutdown because they can make sure that
8:59 the the international community is not
9:02 able to see those videos and images. But
9:04 these activists and citizen journalists
9:06 who are making these videos and who are
9:09 recording these videos on the streets,
9:11 they've been able to send these videos
9:14 to outside world and uh they have these
9:16 videos have been shared on social media
9:19 and with news agencies. So people have
9:23 been able to see to what extent uh
9:26 killings and crackdown has happened
9:27 inside Iran
9:29 >> and and you're saying basically it's
9:31 it's one of the few ways to ensure that
9:34 accurate reporting is is taking place in
9:37 regards to these protests. It seems
9:39 Starlink is itself being heavily
9:42 disrupted right now in Iran. If the
9:44 regime is behind this, what can be done
9:47 about that? How can it be countered?
9:49 That that's correct. Iranian government
9:53 has tried to jam this Starling signal in
9:56 major cities, but they haven't been uh
9:58 fully successful. A lot of the Starling
10:00 users I've been in touch with, they had
10:04 they reported the lower performance of
10:06 their devices, but overall they've been
10:09 able to use them and send the videos and
10:13 images. Um and uh from what we know,
10:16 Sterling company has tried to send a new
10:19 software update to improve the
10:22 performance and counter some of the
10:24 jamming that's been happening in in
10:27 Iran. And from what we hear, that update
10:30 has helped the users inside Iran.
10:34 >> Okay, Medi, as I understand, using
10:37 Starlink in in Iran is illegal. It can
10:40 lead to prison or even a death sentence.
10:44 Uh can it be used uh without being detected?
10:50 If it's hidden well and if the users are
10:52 careful not to go to the Iranian
10:55 websites inside the country and
10:58 primarily use it just to access
11:01 messengers and social media outside the
11:04 country. The risks are not that high,
11:06 but we have heard reports in the past
11:09 few days that Iranian government is
11:11 actually going and checking the roofs on
11:14 many buildings inside Tran trying to
11:18 find these uh stalling devices. And in
11:20 most cases, these devices get
11:23 confiscated, but there are cases that
11:25 people have been imprisoned and in some
11:28 cases they've been accused of being
11:31 spies because of using such devices.
11:33 We've been speaking to Medi Yayanad, a
11:35 tech entrepreneur, digital rights and
11:37 Iranian democracy activist. We really
11:39 appreciate your insights today. Thank
11:41 you so much for your time.
