0:02 If they impose blockade actually it's
0:04 very easy to break blockade because when
0:07 ch when China imposes blockade you think
0:09 the whole world is just gonna stand by
0:11 and do nothing
0:13 of course not
0:17 I suspect immediately there will be
0:21 economic sanction I would say um almost
0:24 100% sure because United States
0:27 understands if United States cannot help
0:29 defend Taiwan
0:32 And the impact on US presence in the
0:35 Western Pacific is tremendous. If we
0:37 can't stop China
0:41 at Taiwan, why would Japan, Korea or
0:43 Philippine believe United States have
0:46 the capability to stop China from
0:48 imposing their will against these
0:52 countries? US defense for Taiwan will be
0:56 done near Taiwan. Okay. our carriers,
0:58 our deployment in the Philippines, in
1:01 the Japanese islands. Okay, we can get here.
1:03 here.
1:06 Our forces from those islands can help
1:08 destroy everything that's on Taiwan
1:09 Straight, in the air, in the sea, under
1:13 the water. So there's no need. So when
1:15 people say United States is not going to
1:16 come to Taiwan, you're right. We're not
1:19 going to come to Taiwan, but we will be
1:21 around Taiwan, help protect Taiwan.
1:24 That's all Taiwan needs because Taiwan's
1:27 ability to defend that area in front of
1:30 Taiwan is enough. United States will go
1:32 from the side and other allied forces,
1:34 Australian, Japanese will go from the
1:37 side because of US interest. I believe so.
5:33 If war starts, okay, it's going to be
5:38 very chaotic on Taiwan. Okay, civilians
5:40 try to evacuate, military deploy and try
5:42 to fight. If United States come to Taiwan,
5:44 Taiwan,
5:46 we would actually contribute to that chaos.
5:49 chaos.
5:51 This has all been studied. Obviously,
5:54 our presence, our help to defend Taiwan
5:57 don't need to be on Taiwan. Taiwan have
6:00 enough resources to defend itself. The
6:03 layer defense on the air now with the
6:05 latest arm cell, the layer defense on
6:07 the surface. Okay, if you look at what
6:10 that's on the latest arm cell package,
6:13 enough US coming to Taiwan will
6:16 contribute that to that mess. Your
6:18 military is busy defending Taiwan and
6:20 still have to take care of the
6:24 Americans. No, US defense for Taiwan
6:28 will be done near Taiwan. Okay, our
6:30 carriers, our deployment in the
6:32 Philippines, in the Japanese islands.
6:36 Okay, we can get here.
6:38 Our forces from those islands can help
6:40 destroy everything that's on Taiwan
6:42 Straight, in the air, in the sea, under
6:46 the water. So there's no need. So when
6:47 people say United States is not going to
6:49 come to Taiwan, you're right. We're not
6:51 going to come to Taiwan, but we will be
6:54 around Taiwan, help protect Taiwan.
6:57 That's all Taiwan needs because Taiwan's
6:59 ability to defend that area in front of
7:02 Taiwan is enough. United States will go
7:05 from the side and other allied forces,
7:07 Australian, Japanese will go from the
7:09 side. None of the forces will come to
7:13 Taiwan because truly uh if you look at
7:16 it carefully um other than a small
7:19 coordination team maybe 20 30 people to
7:22 as a liaison team to coordinate activities
7:24 activities
7:27 to make sure we we work together you
7:29 know where are the Taiwan submarines for
7:31 example okay we want to know so we don't
7:34 end up hitting Taiwan submarine and our
7:35 forces where so make sure you don't hit because
7:37 because
7:40 other than it's very small I believe you
7:41 know I I don't want to talk about the
7:43 actual war plan besides I haven't seen
7:45 the war plan for over 10 years so it's
7:48 changed so many times but other than I
7:50 believe other than a small liaison team
7:53 of people coming to Taiwan in the
7:57 command center coordinated a action
7:58 there will be no boots on the ground so
8:02 to speak US forces I can't imagine US
8:04 deployed forces to come to Taiwan okay
8:07 it just you you actually create problem
8:10 for Taiwan. So the defense of Taiwan by
8:12 United States and coalition forces will
8:14 be done from off island
9:07 Well, actually, let me address the first
9:11 part of your question. Okay. uh and um I
9:13 seen in many of the prochina media talk
9:16 about saturation strike by the rocket
9:18 and missiles. Um
9:20 Um
9:23 if you look at the latest package uh
9:28 ATACM okay 421 ATACM right
9:31 >> uh before Taiwan bought 84 okay when we
9:36 sold atam to Taiwan last time 84 I was
9:40 thinking hm this is a policy change why
9:43 well atakam 300 kilometer can hit China okay
9:45 okay
9:47 I wasn't sure but at this time with 400
9:49 something I'm sure there's a policy
9:52 change because if you recall before
9:53 United States only sell defensive
9:56 weapon. Okay, United States did not want
10:00 Taiwan to hit China and uh basically
10:03 escalate the war. So Taiwan developed
10:05 your own Shong missiles that can hit
10:08 China. Okay.
10:12 So if you think China's rocket
10:14 which flies a low profile actually can
10:17 get here before the missile. Okay. How
10:18 long does it take China's rocket to fly
10:21 from China to Taiwan? Seven and a half
10:24 minutes. Okay. When they launch, within
10:27 two minutes, well, within seconds, the
10:28 satellite is going to see it. I'm going
10:32 to pass intelligence down. And then
10:34 Taiwan before the war, Taiwan spy should
10:37 already know, oh, these rockets trucks
10:38 are leaving the base and ready to
10:42 launch. And there they are. Okay. And
10:43 they can't move the bases. So, we know
10:48 what the bases are. So as they launch
10:49 within five minutes of their launch
10:52 before their first missile hit Taiwan
10:54 Taiwan's ATACM and Shong should be on
10:57 their way to China. War has started once
10:59 they fire the war has started. You can't
11:00 recall the missile missile is going to
11:02 turn not going to turn around and and go
11:07 home. Right? So this capability,
11:11 this ATACM capability and the Shong
11:13 capability will seriously degrade
11:17 China's second wave. Remember, China has 1,500
11:19 1,500
11:23 1,600 missiles, for example,
11:26 they have 600 launchers. Okay? So the
11:30 first wave of missiles sh the their don
11:32 missiles they might launch about 600 if
11:36 every one of them work. Okay.
11:39 How many will be shut down
11:43 by Patriot TK3? How many will be let go
11:45 to let them hit the rice field or
11:47 mountain when they don't hit any
11:49 important important things? How much
11:52 damage can they do? Okay. Uh rockets.
11:53 Rockets a problem. Taiwan needs to
11:55 strengthen it rocket defense. But
11:58 rockets once again GPS guided you can
12:01 self-kill right I mentioned earlier beto
12:04 you jam the signal they go stupid okay
12:06 so you protect your critical
12:07 infrastructure it will still hit some
12:12 houses and stuff unfortunately okay so
12:16 if you look at that from that angle okay
12:18 one saturation strike not going to
12:21 happen some I I saw some media say
12:23 10,000 missiles and rocket going to hit
12:27 Taiwan But please go go look at how many
12:29 launchers they have, how many rocket
12:31 launchers they have, and how many holes
12:35 they can do, you know, and also will
12:37 they have a chance to do second strike.
12:42 I think Taiwan's counter strike, okay,
12:46 can eliminate probably
12:48 50% or more of China's second wave
12:51 ability because you're going to hit that
12:52 missile base. So, they don't have
12:56 ability to reload those big uh uh
12:58 missiles that China uses and certainly
13:02 the the rocket locations and um just
13:04 remember when they do that, coalition
13:06 forces will be doing that too, you know.
13:10 So um I'm not too worried about that
13:14 because knowing the process and the main
13:16 thing is Taiwan once they get the
13:18 systems they need to practice is uh
13:21 rapid response you know because like I
13:24 said you should have those target sets
13:26 already preloaded
13:29 in your system okay
13:32 where to hit if China strike the fixed
13:36 targets it's easy they're missile bases
13:38 Okay. Where they have the munition
13:41 storage area. So those should already be
13:45 preloaded in a tack uh target and in
13:48 shong. Okay. Uh Taiwan can do its own
13:52 saturation strike. Okay. Um Taiwan is
13:55 building thousands of Shong 2 uh to E
13:59 long range cruise missiles. Right. So
14:01 you you go out there and knock down
14:05 their follow on strike capability. Okay.
14:09 then it's not that bad. It's that first
14:11 strike you have to intercept many of
14:16 them. It's not that bad. So I I I I
14:19 when I see this media report 10,000
14:22 missiles against Taiwan, but truly
14:24 Taiwan is a big island. If you look at
14:27 10,000 holes,
14:30 no country has ever surrendered because
14:33 of 10,000 holes. Okay? United States
14:35 bombed Vietnam
14:38 uh with millions of hoes. You know,
14:41 Vietnamese survived.
14:44 This type of strike is is intimidation
14:48 to people. Okay. Boom boom boom. Because
14:53 if you look at the size of a 250 pound warhead
14:54 warhead
14:58 or uh 500 pound warhead, the size of the
15:00 holes, I've seen the size of holes that
15:03 they make, you know. Um,
16:12 okay. Um to answer your question because
16:16 of US interest I believe so but your
16:20 premise two three months I think the attrition
16:21 attrition
16:24 to China's forces across Taiwan straight
16:27 remember Taiwan is not like like Ukraine
16:29 where Russian forces can hide behind the
16:31 mountains behind the tree and come over
16:34 and attack there's no place to hide over
16:37 Taiwan okay so as Indocom commander
16:41 Papyrro said it'll be hell straight
16:45 straight you know so the hellscape
16:46 that's description is very accurate
16:49 because when everything over Taiwan
16:51 straight in the sky on the water you
16:54 shoot you kill okay China can't survive
16:56 that there's an attrition rate so can
16:58 they last two three months I don't think
17:01 so I think when they get to a 30 40%
17:03 attrition rate and they lost all the big
17:06 ships okay they can't continue the war
17:08 that there's no possibility that they
17:10 can come over here helicopter
17:13 airborne. Taiwan have thousands of stingers,
17:15 stingers,
17:18 you know, as they get close and stinger
17:21 guys can sign in behind any tree. Uh so
17:24 so first of all but just in case they do
17:28 this okay uh I cannot imagine at least
17:32 when I was in DC it was made very clear
17:36 to me that uh Taiwan is the key because
17:38 if United States cannot help Taiwan
17:41 survive then our prestige in the
17:44 Asia-Pacific region will be zero. Okay,
17:47 our allies will start developing their
17:50 own nuclear weapons and start finding
17:52 ways to defend themselves. Small
17:54 countries and Philippines, Malaysia,
17:56 Vietnam will all say, "Okay, we're going
17:58 to have to listen to China." Okay?
18:01 Because we don't have a
18:04 country or even
18:07 world organizations
18:08 that can stop China because China
18:11 already disregard international rules.
18:15 Okay? If they can beat United States,
18:17 there's no more need for them to obey
18:20 international rules, they'll impose
18:23 their rules. So at that time truly
18:24 United States will have to go back to
18:27 Guam and Hawaii. But we can't allow that
18:29 to happen because this whole entire
18:31 region is so important to us uh both
18:35 economically and militarily. So I think
18:39 um yeah if it comes to that point
18:42 US national interest would dictate US
18:45 deployment and come help defend Taiwan.
18:47 But like I said I don't see going to
18:53 that point. Uh I don't I don't see how
18:55 this whole scenario have a positive
18:58 turnout for China. Even though many
19:00 medias think Taiwan should just give up.
19:02 I I think this media is being paid by
19:05 China to to to promote this uh defeist
19:10 attitude. Um if you look carefully at
19:14 how Taiwan defense uh scenario goes,
19:16 I don't see a scenario where China can
19:20 win. You know, unless through
19:22 psychological warfare, cognitive warfare
19:25 or Taiwan give up themselves.
20:30 actually Taiwan's model is very similar
20:32 to what United States has right now. We
20:34 have centralized control, decentralized
20:36 execution. When that link from
20:38 centralized control is cut, the the
20:41 decentralized portion already have their war
20:43 war
20:45 uh mission requirement.
20:49 So you continue to execute your war
20:51 mission requirement. Each unit knows
20:54 what we call war documentation.
20:58 No. Um so each unit knows in case you
21:01 lose that link. Okay. Even though that
21:04 command and control link is redundant,
21:07 you shouldn't lose it. But whatever,
21:09 just in case you lose it, that commander,
21:11 commander,
21:13 the commander of the flutilla, the
21:16 commander of the base, uh, fighter base,
21:18 whatever, air defense units, they know
21:20 what's their mission. My mission is this
21:24 area defense or my mission is to strike
21:26 these this these these targets. They'll
21:29 continue that mission, okay? without
21:33 guidance from above. The commander at
21:36 that unit is decentralized, knows his
21:38 mission. He will decide how to execute
21:41 that mission because dayto-day that's
21:44 what we do. The commanders get
21:45 authority. They get a overall
21:48 responsibility. You need to do this. The
21:51 commander decides how he execute to do
21:54 that. Okay. So by having those kind of
21:57 training, I'm hoping Taiwan is doing the
21:59 same because the concept is the same
22:01 centralized control, decentralized
22:04 execution. Okay, that's what Taiwan is
22:05 moving to which I it's the right thing
22:08 to do because you have to be ready to
22:11 lose that centralized control. If you
22:14 don't have that, what would you do? Um
22:16 during the Iraq war, Iraqis sat there
22:18 and waiting to to surrender because they
22:21 lost that centralized control. when we
22:23 jammed it and they have no further
22:25 direction. The tank unit just sitting there
22:27 there
22:30 waiting to surrender, waiting to be attacked.
22:32 attacked.
22:35 So you can't allow that to happen. A
22:37 centralized control organization like
22:40 the People's Liberation Army, okay, like
22:42 China, it's very centralized.
22:44 If they lose that command and control
22:47 system, I suspect many of the commanders
22:49 would know what to do because they have
22:53 not been trained. Okay. So what Taiwan
22:55 is doing now is make sure those
22:57 commander are trained to make decision
22:59 to execute their responsibility during
23:02 wartime even in a condition without
23:23 actually the question should be would
23:27 China willing to risk itself? Okay,
23:29 China's nuclear weapon right now is
23:32 about 10% of the United States nuclear
23:35 weapon and China's ability to deliver
23:39 that nuclear weapon is very limited as
23:41 compared to US ability to deliver that
23:43 nuclear weapon to China
23:47 and basically United States the number
23:50 of weapon and delivery system can I hate
23:52 to say this but majority of China can
23:54 become a wasteland because as you use
23:57 nuclear weapon That piece of land is
23:59 radioactive for the next 50 to 100
24:02 years. It's useless to mankind. Okay? If
24:05 you look at cha Chernobyl accident that
24:07 whole region, you can't use it. You
24:10 can't even eat what it grows, right? So
24:13 will China risk that because United
24:18 States declared nuclear policy is if you
24:20 use nuclear weapon against us, you can
24:24 be 100% assured of a nuclear response.
24:27 If you use nuclear weapon, United States
24:30 will counter with nuclear weapon. Okay?
24:32 And that nuclear weapon is before once
24:36 you launch. We have anti- nuclear
24:38 long-range missile system uh around
24:40 United States. Obviously, we have system
24:44 that capture on the the the middle phase
24:46 and also on the on the on the terminal
24:49 phase. United States missile will be on
24:53 its way over. Okay. So and it will be a
24:56 massive response.
24:59 So I China knows this. I mean the the
25:01 reason United States have declared
25:04 nuclear policies true is to deter
25:08 nuclear attack against United States. So
25:11 I don't see it. I don't see China even
25:14 thinking about because the in the latest
25:17 new nuclear policy review we said the
25:20 threat of use of nuclear weapon
25:21 sufficient for United States to launch a
25:25 nuclear strike. Okay. So I I don't see
25:28 that happening. Uh it we will be
25:31 foolish. It'll be a suicide escalation.
25:34 China, even if they launch nuclear
25:36 weapon, are they going to win? They're
25:39 not going to win. If you can't win, why
25:42 kill yourself? You know, it would
25:44 destroy the entire Chinese his
25:48 civilization be foolish. So, so I don't
25:50 see China doing that and I certainly
25:52 don't see China using nuclear weapon
25:56 against Taiwan. You know, Xiinping will
25:58 go down history as the the enemy of the
26:31 because I don't see how China can win
26:35 unless they can uh cause serious damage
26:39 internally to Taiwan before they start a
26:42 war. Okay.
26:45 The fifth column can create chaos,
26:49 destroy critical infrastructure, disrupt
26:51 chaiwan's own military forces from
26:54 defending Taiwan
26:59 before and during the war. Okay,
27:01 this is the most dangerous thing. The
27:04 fifth element which is operating now
27:07 taking also help
27:10 cognitive warfare.
27:12 These are the people who goes on TV
27:14 influencers. These are the people who in
27:17 the town meetings spreading information,
27:21 false information of uh you know uh
27:23 resistance is futile. If you resist
27:25 China, China just take over and you'll
27:29 be dead. Okay. And so that it caused
27:34 Taiwan to have a defeatist attitude
27:37 where reduces Taiwan's will to fight.
27:41 Okay. In the meantime, they can uh
27:43 destroy your your electrical
27:46 distribution grid, put poison in your
27:50 water using drones, attack military
27:54 facilities from any building top. They
27:57 can can launch a zone, a drone of some
28:00 type. So the type of damage they can do
28:02 is much greater than any of the
28:04 missiles. You can defend against
28:07 missiles. You cannot defend mind
28:10 influence unless each person in Taiwan
28:13 have a very strong central belief of
28:16 defending Taiwan.
28:19 What I worry about is the fifth element
28:22 that's in country now dayto-day they do
28:25 very low level cognitive warfare.
28:27 Sometimes you don't even realize it.
28:29 Okay. and and recently you saw the news
28:32 where uh they are uh paying off influencers
28:33 influencers
28:36 uh in Taiwan in the United States with
28:39 massive amount of money. So these people
28:41 received their money overseas probably
28:44 you know in their relatives account in
28:46 the United States they they receive US
28:48 dollar you know so it's difficult to
28:50 track but I understand it's been tracked
28:52 right now people are investigating some
28:54 of these people uh you know where
28:58 they're openly praising China and and uh
29:00 stuff so you wonder why would they do
29:03 that because of money you know and but
29:06 their influence these people probably
29:09 don't see themsel as fifth fifth column
29:13 but they are you are a fifth column if
29:17 you're serving your enemy right so all
29:19 these people might think oh you know I'm
29:23 great I'm doing uh you know my my my
29:25 home country whatever
29:29 but for Taiwan they're fifth column even
29:31 though you don't call yourself that but
29:35 you are so these are the people I worry
29:38 most because if Taiwan Tan's
29:40 determination to defend itself is affected.
29:42 affected.
29:45 People won't come to Taiwan's help. If
29:48 Taiwan is ready to surrender, why would
29:50 other people come help Taiwan? So that
29:53 is the key. That is why you see me talk
29:56 about this. And that is the only way I
29:59 believe China can grab Taiwan, annex
30:02 Taiwan is this. But like I said, these
30:04 people don't realize um if China do come
30:09 over, okay, China is one party system,
30:13 KMT, TPP or DPP, no more. It's a suicide
30:17 mission. And once these people loses its
30:19 usefulness, okay, right now they're
30:21 useful to to the communist, but when
30:23 they take over Taiwan, if they think
30:25 communist going to treat them better,
30:27 they better think again because you are
30:31 a traitor. If you are a trader, you're
30:32 always a trader. They won't trust you.
30:34 They probably the first one you get rid
30:38 of are these traders. So, so I hope they
30:40 think about this and uh uh think about
30:53 At that time the most important purpose
30:56 that United States wants to provide this
30:59 big radar is because
31:02 we want to give the leadership of Taiwan
31:05 time to evacuate because we are worried
31:09 about uh China use decapitation strike.
31:11 They they they may launch a couple of
31:14 missiles with the intention of killing
31:17 the leadership of Taiwan. So, this
31:20 radar, as you know, has a 3,000
31:22 kilometer range. They can give Taiwan
31:25 leadership about 20 minutes warning time
31:28 to take cover. Okay. The second purpose
31:33 is in case China decides to do a massive
31:35 attack on Taiwan using missiles and
31:37 rockets and airplanes,
31:41 this radar can detect it and provide uh
31:45 targeting, queuing uh information. It it
31:47 can tell like dayto day when Patriot is
31:50 monitoring missiles coming in, they will
31:53 scan the entire sky. Okay, this radar
31:56 can tell the Patriot system in about 10
31:57 minutes. You're going to have a radar
32:00 from this space and this space. So the
32:03 the Patriot radar can focus their energy
32:05 at those space. They see the incoming
32:07 missile early. It increases the
32:11 probability of kill. So those are the
32:14 main purpose uh primary two purpose
32:16 allow the leadership to have time to to
32:19 to take cover from a decapitation
32:22 strike. Second, to make the air missile
32:44 course, there there's going to be
32:46 missile defense that that protect that.
32:50 That's why I think China will use uh not
32:52 only missiles but also uh cruise
32:56 missiles to attack the this this site
32:58 since this is a fixed site. So most
33:00 likely they will use uh satellite
33:04 guidance system BO system. Okay. So
33:06 knowing that
33:08 you also look at the structure of this
33:10 radar. It's a 10-story tall radar. I
33:12 don't know if you have been there. Each
33:16 face has thousands of individual
33:19 transmitter receiver TR modules. So even
33:22 if you have a bomb blow up nearby killed
33:24 a few hundred, it still functions. But
33:27 the key is first you have the hard kill
33:30 option of having missile defense or
33:33 having fails close closing weapon system
33:35 that can kill the cruise missile. Second
33:39 thing is you use soft kill because a GPS
33:43 signal can be easily jammed. So the bet
33:45 signal and Taiwan has many of the the
33:49 the GPS jammers against bet system. you
33:51 can use soft kill and make these cruise
33:53 missile go stupid as they get close to
33:55 this site and they lose their tracking.
33:57 They don't know where they at and they
34:00 crash. Okay, so there are many different
34:03 defense system. Of course, I can't say
34:06 where it is or or how it's done, but
34:09 it's not so vulnerable as people think.
34:10 Okay, first of all, it's survivable
34:13 because it's so huge. You you need so
34:16 many missiles and bombs and to to to hit
34:18 it to knock it out of commission.
34:19 Second, they are the self-care protection.
34:45 Oh, of course. Um, Taiwan has many
34:47 mobile radars. Actually, majority of
34:49 Taiwan's radars are mobile. They're
34:52 they're deployable. They move around.
34:56 And once the combat starts, okay, once
34:58 Lean radar service primary purpose,
35:00 which is warning of the first strike, okay,
35:02 okay,
35:04 so it's damaged, let's say it's damaged,
35:07 okay, the actual combat is come is going
35:10 to take place within 300 kilometers of
35:13 Taiwan across the the Taiwan straight.
35:15 Taiwan's mobile radar all have that
35:17 range. you don't need that 3,000
35:20 kilometer range anymore. At that point,
35:22 Taiwan's surveillance and the
35:26 connectivity of the system and uh the
35:28 the command and control system will
35:31 depend on these mobile radar and their
35:33 picture will be integrated into one
35:36 single picture of battle area pictures.
35:39 So yeah, um it doesn't stop Taiwan's
35:41 defense because this is primary purpose.
35:43 Remember what I said, it's early
35:46 warning. Once the war starts,
35:48 the real surveillance and direction
35:51 passes to those mobile survivable
36:37 actually
36:40 that sharing is already ongoing
36:43 day-to-day. So, so it's it's nothing new
36:46 and I don't think uh it's it's
36:49 classified as far as uh the cooperation
36:53 between Taiwan and United States. So um
36:57 for example every week uh three four
36:59 times a week our RC135
37:03 goes along RC135 from Kadina it's not a
37:05 secret they they have two routes one's
37:07 north they go around China's northern
37:09 coast all the way to North Korea and
37:12 come back another one south go from
37:14 Okinawa all the way down to Han Island
37:16 and come back and and China have
37:18 intercepted many times so it's it's no
37:20 secret and all the information they
37:21 collect as far
37:24 where are the transmission source and
37:27 what are the frequency methodology and
37:30 all that information it's shared not
37:32 only with Taiwan but with our friends in
37:35 Japan you know uh any of the coalition
37:37 possible coalition partners uh the the
37:39 South China Sea information will be
37:41 shared with Philippines uh so this type
37:43 of sharing is ongoing dayto day so you
37:45 don't you don't need to establish a new
38:06 personally. I don't think they would. I
38:08 I think it would be very stupid to to do
38:12 that. Even though you you see in some of
38:14 the the more pro-China network in
38:16 Taiwan, they keep on saying, "Oh,
38:19 Taiwan's going to surrender in a week or
38:21 two or three weeks and stuff." I I can't
38:25 see it because uh blockade is a uh
38:29 double-edged sword for for China
38:32 because when ch when China imposes
38:34 blockade, you think the whole world is
38:37 just going to stand by and do nothing?
38:39 Of course not.
38:43 I suspect immediately there will be
38:46 economic sanction as that was imposed on
38:50 Russia. Okay. Um maybe the whole world
38:53 will stop the banking system will stop
38:56 using China Swift code so they can do
38:59 external trade. Maybe countries around
39:02 the world say oh you blockade Taiwan
39:05 your ship cannot come into your Kuska.
39:08 You cannot come into to San Diego,
39:10 Seattle. You cannot come into Singapore.
39:13 Countries might stop processing Chinese
39:16 ships. Even though it's might be Panama
39:18 register, but it's from China or or
39:20 ships that's going to China, maybe there
39:23 can be a counter blockade at straight of
39:26 Malacas. You going to China, hang on, we
39:28 want to inspect your stuff. You can't go
39:31 to China right now. So people talk about
39:34 how long can Taiwan last. Maybe they
39:37 should also ask how long can China last.
39:40 In addition during this time since China
39:43 already indicated my goal is to have
39:46 Taiwan give up to annex Taiwan. The next
39:49 step is using military force if Taiwan
39:51 doesn't give up. So at this time you
39:54 should expect United States and allied
39:57 forces to forward deploy to area around
40:00 Taiwan to further deter China from go
40:03 using their military. Okay. So
40:06 that's the military aspect, political
40:09 aspect. Maybe these countries including
40:12 United States will say if you use force
40:15 or if you continue this blockade, I will
40:17 formally recognize Taiwan as a separate
40:21 country from China. That's political
40:23 deterrence. Okay. So there are many
40:27 things that can happen and if China is
40:30 smart they have already thought through
40:32 the entire process because if they
40:34 impose blockade actually it's very easy
40:37 to break blockade if you some of the
40:40 older people remember uh Russia tried to
40:43 blockade Berlin after World War II
40:46 immediately the airbridge started coming
40:48 and I can see that happening okay I can see
40:50 see
40:53 airfields like Clark air base or or uh
40:55 subi naval base will be used to block
40:59 break this airbridge blockade and convoys.
41:00 convoys.
41:02 I believe the air bridge will be
41:04 established within days for critical
41:07 supplies. A convoy within a week or two
41:09 will be coming through with military
41:12 escort. Will China risk
41:16 starting a war by attacking this escort
41:19 convoy? attacking the fighter escort of
41:23 the airbridge or the the the ship escort
41:25 of the convoy. Okay. So if you look at
41:29 that will China escalate
41:31 expand this war into not just with
41:34 Taiwan not with everybody. Okay. So per
41:36 that's why personally I don't think they
42:14 I would say um almost 100% sure because
42:17 United States understands if United
42:20 States cannot help defend Taiwan
42:23 then the impact on US presence in the
42:26 Western Pacific is tremendous. If we
42:28 can't stop China
42:32 at Taiwan, why would Japan, Korea or
42:34 Philippine believe United States have
42:37 the capability to stop China from
42:39 imposing their will against these
42:43 countries? Okay. So, United States is
42:45 not ready to pull out of Asia, Western
42:47 Pacific. It's too important for the
42:50 United States national interest. So I I
42:53 cannot see a scenario where US will not
42:56 be involved. Um I I fully believe United
42:59 States will be here from from the very
43:03 beginning of a Chinese imposed action
43:04 either blockade or any other kind of
43:41 This is a very good question. Okay. Uh
43:42 majority of people don't understand US
43:46 decision-m process. All right. So every
43:50 area where US interest is involved, we
43:53 have a comprehensive war plan already in
43:57 place with many options. These options
44:00 based is based on the enemy's action and
44:02 also US readiness of preparedness at
44:04 different state of preparedness. We have
44:07 different options. Okay. So if China
44:11 wants to do something against Taiwan,
44:13 they can't hide it. Okay. Usually we'll
44:17 have strategic warning, okay? Maybe
44:20 weeks, a month in advance. Okay, it's
44:23 very hard to conduct a warfare against
44:25 Taiwan without having some kind of
44:28 preparation. Okay, because you you want
44:31 to win. So you cannot just have 20
44:33 airplane come around and attack Taiwan.
44:36 You can hide 20 airplanes, right? But
44:39 you cannot hire 400 airplane loading up
44:41 weapons. You cannot hide all these ships
44:43 getting ready to attack. So when we get
44:46 strategic warning, first thing that's
44:49 going to happen is our commander in
44:52 Indoaccom command will go to Washington
44:55 DC and go with the secretary of defense
44:57 and the chairman of the joint chief
45:00 because their adviser to the president
45:02 and the war fighter commander is PCOM
45:04 commander. The three of them will go to
45:07 tell tell the president sir this is
45:09 happening. We think China is ready to
45:11 attack and based on our current
45:12 readiness and what China is doing, I
45:16 recommend option C.
45:18 The president will get to choose and
45:21 decide okay if China attacks implement
45:25 option three, option C. Okay. So the
45:26 decision process actually is on the
45:29 front end. United States is not stupid
45:31 until enemy do something. Oh, what
45:34 should I do? No, that decision is made
45:36 beforehand and the Indopaccom commander
45:39 has given the authority
45:42 to execute the war plan the minute China
45:44 does something that trigger obviously is
45:46 classified what triggers that
45:48 implementation of the war plan. But the
45:52 fact is at that point when president say
45:55 execute option C within option C there
45:59 are force deployment order immediately
46:03 issued the carrier in San Diego deploy
46:05 the submarines from the west coast all
46:07 move forward moving and submarines in
46:09 Hawaii go out and of course Guam
46:13 submarines out there dayto-day so
46:14 the timing that most people don't
46:18 understand is it's quick because the
46:21 decisions made beforehand. Okay, the
46:23 president already knows, okay, if China
46:26 do this, it affects United States court
46:28 interest. We're not going to stand by
46:31 and and so
46:33 from the time that China takes action,
46:34 you should expect United States already
46:39 have response ready. Okay? And um and
46:40 this is not a secret. After the Gulf
46:43 War, everybody knows in in our war plan
46:46 based on the option, the first 72 hours
46:49 of combat action is already set who does
46:52 what to who. Then after 72 hours, our
46:55 war plan will determine enemies action.
46:57 Then we have what we call branches and
46:59 sequel. That's already our intelligence
47:01 studies. Okay, most likely if they go
47:04 this way, the following action such such
47:06 then we'll go to that branch and we have
47:08 sequels. So like I say, it's a very
47:10 comprehensive war plan. Uh I was a
47:15 planner for for two years and uh um
47:18 United States action will be very quick
47:21 and uh hopefully China understand this.
47:24 I say this because I really hope to
47:26 deter further deter China from doing
47:28 something unthinkable. Let's go the
47:53 political decision is already made. I I
47:56 don't think uh there's a waiting for
48:01 political decision. Um because uh
48:03 you know we we run this exercise when I
48:06 was in the military and and and uh um we
48:09 we do this on a Taiwan scenario uh quite
48:14 often uh even now um I don't think it
48:17 takes even the 72 tower is the war plan
48:20 how to fight the first three days okay
48:22 if we're going to engage in the fight
48:25 that decision is already made and like I
48:28 said the Indo Paccom commander already
48:30 given authority and the fact is if you
48:33 look at all the exercise we do in the
48:37 region king's war with Japan okay all
48:40 the exercise we have Australia in and in
48:43 in in in Philippines and also bamboo
48:46 eagle in the US
48:50 they are all exercising wartime scenarios
48:51 scenarios
48:55 as u we can't exercise entire war plan
48:58 okay we do a little bit of each time.
49:02 Um, and if you want to understand the
49:04 wartime command structure,
49:08 uh, how we will fight, okay, if just go
49:11 online and look at the command structure
49:14 for rim of Pacific exercise, rimac
49:16 exercise from previous years, you will
49:18 see how we deploy the joint task force
49:21 commander. Then under the deputy
49:24 commanders usually we have a Japanese or
49:28 we have coalition forces structure and
49:32 um we call it rimpact but the fact is we
49:34 exercise some of the things that we need
49:38 to do in case China starts a war so um
49:40 all these are exercised all these are
49:44 prepared and uh so political decision
49:46 like I your question is will it take
49:48 three days no it won't take three days
49:50 that is already done beforehand
49:52 the the military deployment is the
49:55 timing how far advance we have the
49:57 warning if we know China going to do
49:59 something we will start early if we
50:02 China surprise us and we don't have
50:04 enough forces then we use a different
50:06 option the the commander will recommend
50:08 to the president a different option
50:11 where maybe from US asset long range
50:16 strike first then then follow on if our
50:18 forces already forward deployed and you
50:22 know Uh more of the local strike and and
51:27 So
51:30 to defense against fifth column
51:34 is the duty of every citizen. Okay.
51:36 Without the participation of the
51:38 citizens, it's impossible.
51:43 Each citizen should become more aware.
51:45 When you see something strange, report
51:49 it or stop it. Okay? Because police and
51:52 army cannot be everywhere. But people,
51:55 you and I are everywhere. Okay? So it
51:59 takes the involvement, the awareness of
52:03 the people. Okay.
52:05 As far as defense weapon goes, of
52:07 course, you see in Taiwan's using those
52:10 uh uh radio frequency guns to point at
52:14 the the the the UAV, the drones to to
52:16 knock it down. And Taiwan is so
52:18 populated, you cannot use gun to shoot
52:20 it down because if you don't if you miss
52:23 the darn thing, you hit somebody. So
52:24 another thing I think Taiwan should
52:27 consider is like microwave weapon where
52:30 we can counter against a swarm of drones
52:32 by burning out the secretaries. You
52:34 know, United States is using that on
52:37 some of our bases um overseas because
52:39 what you worry about is every you know
52:43 here comes 50 drones. If you use this
52:45 microwave type weapon within one or two
52:47 kilometers they they lose function they
52:50 fall. Okay. Uh these are the type of
52:52 things I think Taiwan need to look at
52:54 more closely because the threat is real.
52:56 Like I mentioned, somebody on top of the
52:58 rooftop in every building, they can be
53:01 flying something. A $200 US drone can
53:05 hit a third, you know, $36 million F-16,
53:08 right? So, so you you need to defend
53:12 against these. So, as somebody
53:15 when the situation is getting bad and
53:17 some guy some some guy's carrying some
53:20 suitcase up to the rooftop,
53:22 it should be reported right away. You
53:24 got to catch them on the front end
53:26 before they take action.
53:29 Okay, they should be stopped. They need
53:32 to be stopped. That's how we defend
53:33 against fifth fifth element is through
53:36 the the the involvement of the entire
53:39 nation because the infiltration from
53:42 China uh is tremendous. It's very
53:45 difficult to prevent it. Taiwan got such
53:48 big coastline, you know, they can come
53:50 over, you know, the guy rode a little
53:52 boat all the way up to Dancer River, for
53:55 example, you know, so so these type of
53:57 things happen.
53:59 So the prevention
54:03 uh defense is a national defense requirement,
54:04 requirement,
54:07 people's involvement.
54:09 So that's how we defend against fifth
54:12 column forces. Tony,
54:12 Tony,
54:13 >> thank you.
