0:02 It was dark and it was deadly.
0:04 >> Trump's attack on Venezuela and the
0:07 remarkable capture of Maduro,
0:09 >> it was an incredible thing to see,
0:11 >> is less a triumph of American power than
0:14 a symptom of its contraction. It
0:17 indicates a weakening US power,
0:19 expanding its regional sphere of
0:21 influence while abandoning its global
0:25 one. This is the biggest redefinition of
0:27 the US role in the world since World War
0:29 II. I mean, I watched it literally like
0:32 I was watching a television show. And uh
0:34 if you would have seen the the speed,
0:36 the violence, it was an amazing thing.
0:39 >> This is theatrics. Trump is intoxicated
0:41 by the theatrics of war. He [snorts]
0:44 relishes the spectacle, the momentary
0:47 surge of dominance, like a more dramatic
0:50 version of a TV rating spike, and the
0:52 knowledge that his act of war will
0:54 eventually slide out of the news cycle,
0:57 only to return later as material for
1:00 Trump to reframe as myth. The United
1:02 States is shedding its claim to global
1:05 stewardship and retreating into
1:07 dominating its own sphere of influence.
1:10 This retreat carries a dangerous
1:12 corollery because of course Russia and
1:14 China must therefore have a sphere of
1:17 influence of their own. America asserts
1:20 its control over its backyard from South
1:22 America to Greenland. China asserts
1:26 control in East Asia. Russia in Eurasia,
1:28 India is in between. And then there is
1:30 Europe. And Europe is in theory
1:33 America's ally. that in practice it is
1:36 neither ally nor foe but a kind of
1:40 irrelevant expendable space from Trump's
1:42 point of view. Now it's funny and
1:46 unfunny that as Trump attacks Venezuela
1:48 and captures Maduro, Europe's response
1:52 is to escalate its degree of monitoring
1:54 the situation very closely.
1:56 >> I want to ensure that I've got all the
1:59 facts at my disposal. In a world sliding
2:01 into a politics of spheres of influence,
2:04 Europe does not obviously have a sphere
2:06 of influence of its own. Indeed, Eastern
2:08 Europe and Western Europe can't even
2:11 agree on what constitutes Europe proper.
2:13 Europe's response to the collapse of the
2:17 post 1989 global order is to pretend
2:19 that this collapse is happening more
2:21 slowly than it is. Europe's incapacity
2:25 to condemn Trump's action normatively
2:27 weakens the grounds on which Europe
2:29 condemns Putin's brutal invasion of
2:32 Ukraine. To change this, European
2:34 leaders would have to get themselves on
2:36 a stronger footing in their domestic
2:39 politics. Temocratic centrist leaders
2:41 who are besieged by a crisis of
2:44 legitimacy in their domestic politics
2:46 are not going to make good strategic
2:49 leaders on the international stage. Now,
2:51 where are the Russians in this? Putin,
2:53 like the Chinese, has backed Maduro for
2:56 years. Only a few months ago, Putin and
2:58 Maduro signed a strategic partnership
3:01 and economic cooperation agreement, and
3:02 their last official phone call dates
3:06 back to December 11th. Moreover, the
3:09 image of Maduro blindfolded and in
3:12 handcuffs is the stuff of Putin's
3:15 nightmares because that is Putin's
3:17 ultimate fear about his own potential
3:21 end. But but but but [music] but Ukraine
3:23 matters to Putin a thousand times more
3:26 than Venezuela. And while Russian
3:28 officials have condemned Trump's [music]
3:31 actions, Putin as yet hasn't. Moreover,
3:33 in recent history, Putin hasn't done
3:36 much to help Maduro. Contrast this with
3:39 2018 when upon the US declaring the
3:41 election in Venezuela illegitimate, the
3:44 Russians sent 100 military personnel and
3:46 two strategic bombers. Essentially Putin
3:49 is admitting the Monroe Doctrine here.
3:52 He knows that the corollery of America
3:55 running its backyard is that Russia may
3:57 be allowed to run its own backyard.
3:59 There is then a challenge that Trump's
4:02 action presents for Putin. Namely, it
4:05 generates pressure on Putin from the Z
4:07 radical side. There are many
4:10 disanalogies between Putin's invasion of
4:13 Ukraine and Trump's attack on Venezuela.
4:15 However, one thing that stands out
4:19 pictorially is Trump's sublime and
4:22 instant success and Putin's spectacular
4:26 incapacity to overwhelm Ukraine in four
4:28 years of war, having lost hundreds of
4:31 thousands of personnel and the whole
4:34 army full of military equipment. Several
4:36 Z radical accounts mocked the Kremlin on
4:40 Telegram and even Mr. Dugan's account
4:43 posted, "Do as Trump does." But overall,
4:46 this is a net gain for Russia because
4:50 Trump's actions advance Putin's vision
4:54 of the world. Now, where or who is next?
4:56 First, everybody in South America and
4:58 Central America knows that their
5:00 sovereignty is no more fragile than it
5:03 used to be. Second, Greenland annexation
5:06 is now a serious risk. There is no
5:08 reason why Trump can't declare the US
5:11 military bases their sovereign American
5:13 territory. Three questions matter to
5:15 Trump. Is Greenland in our sphere of
5:18 influence? Do they have resources we can
5:20 exploit? And will it make good TV? And
5:22 the answer to all three of these
5:24 questions is yes. Thirdly, Trump's
5:27 action can't embolden Putin in Ukraine
5:28 because he's already maximally
5:32 emboldened. But it can embolden Putin to
5:35 escalate his hybrid war against Europe.
5:37 Because if Venezuela is Trump's, then
5:40 Putin can think that Estonia and Poland
5:42 are certainly Putin's. And fourthly,
5:44 it's important for us to keep two things
5:46 in mind at the same time. On the one
5:49 hand, Maduro is an illegitimate
5:52 authoritarian and a political disgrace.
5:55 On the other hand, Trump's actions make
5:58 the world a more dangerous place, make
6:02 America weaker and do nothing to help
6:04 democratic forces in Venezuela.
6:08 Understand that from Maduru bad, it does
6:10 not follow that Trump's actions are
6:13 good. Fifth, Trump's remark that America
6:17 will run Venezuela is magical thinking
6:20 because first decapitating the regime
6:22 does not eliminate the regime. It's
6:25 still there without Maduro and
6:27 eliminating the regime is not something
6:29 you can do without collapsing the state.
6:32 So there is no plan whatever for what
6:35 happens next. Six, the attack on
6:38 Venezuela captures a rare convergence
6:40 inside the Trump administration. Here,
6:43 Donald Trump's might is right politics
6:46 align with the interests of the neocons
6:49 inside the administration. Venezuela and
6:52 Iran function as a kind of ideological
6:55 reservation for neocons. Marginalized on
6:57 China and compelled to tolerate
7:00 grotesque indulgence of the Kremlin.
7:02 Submissive neocons in the Trump
7:05 administration led by Marco Rubio are
7:08 allowed to have a little party in this
7:10 limited domain. Now, having analyzed
7:13 Trump's action politically, I want to
7:15 ground it ethically for us. The attack
7:18 on Venezuela is an arbitrary political
7:22 action inspired not by lies, but by
7:25 power that stops even pretending to tell
7:28 the truth and relies on spectacle to
7:31 make truth irrelevant. Its actions are
7:33 justified not by lies, but by the
7:36 performance itself. We're not going back
7:39 to the 1930s, but this particular
7:41 element of fascism will be part of the
7:44 authoritarianism to come in the West.
7:48 That doing bad things with shiny success
7:50 makes them right. This power is
7:53 scornful, not just of international
7:56 norms, [music] US citizens, Venezuela's
8:00 citizens, America's allies, but of truth
8:02 itself. In some respects, this is
8:05 special to our post-truth age. But it is
8:08 also universal. When empires decline,
8:11 they become insular and lose patience
8:14 with reality. Trump's politics are
8:17 repellent because they embody decay and
8:19 post truth with such unmbarrassed
8:22 brashness. Yet their ugliness should not
8:26 obscure the ideological logic at work, a
8:28 logic which Trump himself does not
8:30 understand. But if you want to
8:32 understand it as Trump doesn't, then
