0:00 so an overview would be like this in the
0:02 past the two parents on average got six
0:06 children the reason the population was
0:08 not growing here from the year 2000 from
0:12 the year you know when we started
0:14 agriculture way back then 5,000 years
0:16 ago it took 5,000 years to go from 10
0:19 million to 1 billion this is 1 billion
0:22 here it is because one two three four
0:28 died sadly before grow going up to have
0:30 children themselves the past was
0:34 ugly human beings have never ever lived
0:38 in ecological balance with nature that's
0:41 a myth people have been dying in
0:45 ecological balance with nature it's due
0:48 to high and tragic death rates of
0:50 children and young people that there's
0:53 been a balance between human and nature
0:55 and that's ugly and people hated it and
0:58 they wanted their children to survive
1:00 and after the Industrial Revolution we
1:02 got soap industrially produced soap we
1:06 got piped water and we got some medical
1:09 actions you know and instead of four
1:13 dying four survived and two died and
1:17 that caused the growth of the population
1:18 you see two parents four children
1:20 doubling in one generation 25 years 1
1:23 billion to two billions 25 years more 2
1:26 billion to 4
1:28 billion and there we went to 7 billion
1:32 people and this is what many say oh
1:35 population explosion W wahah yeah but it
1:37 was
1:38 inevitable we didn't want kids to
1:40 continue to die and people would not
1:43 apply Family Planning until they saw
1:45 their kids
1:46 surviving all the death rate has to fall
1:49 before the birth rate is falling and and
1:52 and then many call this exponential
1:56 growth have you heard the toone
1:57 exponential growth this is exponential f
1:59 fter and faster since 1960 we have had
2:03 no exponential growth whatsoever we've
2:06 had an absolutely linear
2:09 growth and for you those of you doing
2:11 math you know that linear growth means
2:14 that the interest rate is falling every
2:16 year we added 1 billion in 14 years 1
2:20 billion in 14 years 1 billion in 14
2:22 years that means the adding of billions
2:24 did not become faster and
2:26 faster but there's so much crap written
2:29 and said about population growth so they
2:31 has put in these xes explosion
2:34 exponentially you argue for things based
2:37 on scare trying to scare people instead
2:40 of making them understand here now we
2:44 have a situation where we will add
2:47 another 4 billion in spite of already
2:50 having reached the New
2:52 Balance this is strange why will we add
2:55 four billions when the number of
2:56 children have stopped
2:58 increasing
3:00 it's
3:02 strange this
3:04 one the balance was controlled by death
3:07 it was ugly and unacceptable people
3:10 would never accept that they tried their
3:12 best this balance is controlled by
3:17 Love by being able to disentangle
3:20 sexuality and reproduction and some
3:22 religious leaders haven't got it
3:24 yet we try to make it very simple to
3:27 understand that this is a good thing
3:30 it's a good thing that you can separate
3:32 those two and
3:34 and and why will it be 11 billions well
3:38 I have some more improved educational
3:41 material from Gap minder here I brought
3:44 these blocks
3:46 here imagine that this is 1 billion
3:50 people you can see here one billion
3:53 people and these ones are children below
3:58 15 here's the age
4:00 see they are below 15 these are the
4:04 children they're two billion in the
4:06 world next age group 15 to 30 they are
4:09 also almost two billions I'm going to
4:13 simplify not falsify but simplify really
4:16 it's actually 1.8 or something here but
4:19 I say two billion next group I say it's
4:22 1 billion it's actually 1.4 something
4:26 but there are less here next group 45 to
4:29 61 billion almost precisely 1 billion
4:33 then it's my group 60 years and older
4:36 and we are not really 1 billion but
4:38 almost and we take the help by some
4:40 really old people who join our group
4:42 here so we have this is the world
4:44 population
4:46 today this is the world the composition
4:48 of the world population you could call
4:50 it a population pyramid more in the base
4:53 than up here now many think that the
4:56 reason these are missing is because they
4:58 died no no some are missing because they
5:01 died most are missing because they were
5:03 never born because back then 30 to 60
5:06 years ago there were fewer people born
5:08 because there were fewer women then more
5:10 and more survived and then we got this
5:12 situation now the number of children
5:15 will not increase these two billions
5:18 will remain two billions for the rest of
5:20 this century and the 71 year of life
5:24 expectancy it won't increase that much
5:27 so let's assume that that stays the same
5:30 so if number of children stays the
5:33 same length of life stays the same what
5:36 will
5:37 happen because there are some people
5:39 telling me the environmental problems
5:42 are so severe so we have to stop world
5:45 population below 10 billion aha I is
5:48 that so have you studied demography I
5:52 said yes yes yes we have to stop it no
5:55 you can't I said I will show you know
5:57 why you can't stop it below 10 because
6:00 imagine let's look at let's look at me
6:02 my group what happened to people like me
6:04 do you know
6:06 that no one has a family that are
6:09 Undertakers they die we die the old
6:13 people die some think we become Angels
6:15 some things we just disappear anyhow
6:17 they
6:18 disappear what happens to the rest of
6:20 you you grow older you grow older and
6:25 older and older and 15 years from now
6:27 you have changed age group and and then
6:30 other children come and replace you down
6:32 there can you
6:33 see same amount of children as I showed
6:37 you then they all die the rest grow
6:41 older and older and older and get the
6:43 same amount of
6:45 children 30 years from now then they all
6:48 die it's not so difficult you get it now
6:52 they die the rest grow older and older
6:54 and older and here they are I mean this
6:58 this is you started down there most of
7:01 you students 1 2 3 this is when you are
7:04 up here you are 60 years now you become
7:07 like
7:08 me you see when you are like me it's
7:11 filled up to here and we have three
7:13 billion
7:14 more you saw the
7:17 magic without increasing the number of
7:20 children without increasing the length
7:22 of life we got three billion more I'll
7:24 do it once
7:25 more because you're in doubt there
7:27 someone think here I made this up you
7:29 know in some way the all die the rest
7:32 grow older and they get children they
7:34 all die the rest grow older they get
7:37 children they all die the rest grow
7:39 older they get children and there you
7:41 are inevitably you will have three
7:44 billion more people because death starts
7:47 up here at this age relatively few die
7:51 here
7:52 135 million children born six million
7:56 die every year it's down to 5% that's
7:59 mainly down here our death then death
8:02 rate is relatively low all the way up
8:04 here because life expectancy is
8:07 71 now in spite of instead of getting
8:11 shorter life what we think is that we
8:13 will get longer life and we think we
8:14 will get one billion more up there of
8:17 course I'm very happy of that that will
8:19 give me 15 years more to follow
8:21 statistics you
8:23 know so now that some people just wrote
8:26 in the Swedish newspaper and criticized
8:28 me and said we must be less than 10
8:30 billions but who should we take
8:35 away which one do they want to
8:39 remove yeah should we let you know
8:44 they take away the old but there still
8:46 10
8:47 billion it's 10 10 billion you want to
8:50 take more can you kill these
8:53 two no say no for God's sake it's
8:57 forbid don't be in doubt it's absolutely
9:00 forbidden Thou shalt not kill haven't
9:02 you read the
9:05 Bible so what shall you do what shall
9:09 you
9:10 do I think you will have to do it like
9:15 this you have to force people to just
9:17 have one
9:19 child do you
9:21 see if you do like mum they say you
9:25 introduce one child it's very delicate
9:27 you have to be careful if they did it
9:30 like this then they can get 8
9:34 billion you think people voluntarily
9:36 will go for one
9:39 child no I suggested to the leader of
9:42 the Swedish environmental
9:44 party who argued at one time and said
9:47 that that you know we should have less
9:49 people in the world I said and we talked
9:51 with her and I said yeah why don't you
9:52 start with Sweden then because we are
9:56 one of the rich country that increased
9:57 the number of children per Wom
10:00 it's quite easy you just take away the
10:01 child allowances the subsidies for the
10:04 daycare center and you put in school
10:06 fees three simple measures as a
10:09 politician the number of children per
10:10 woman in Sweden will drop from two to
10:12 1.5 of course you will lose the next
10:15 election and you have to make a kudat
10:17 you know and become
10:21 dictator it's very strange how serious
10:23 people can suggest
10:25 this now I share the con concern about
10:29 the environment I share the concern
10:32 about elephants and rhinos I share more
10:35 than anyone else the concern concern
10:38 about the climate but I ain't going to
10:41 kill people to achieve it I ain't going
10:44 to force people to get
10:46 sterilized I ain't going to become
10:49 moou because it won't work people won't
10:52 accept it they won't accept it and and
10:55 and here you can see so I think we will
10:58 have to oh yes this is
11:02 like
11:03 oh you can't you can't mix up with
11:06 population like that it's very dangerous
11:08 you have to be careful with people H you
11:11 have to be very careful with people so
11:13 they can live decent their life I think
11:15 the solution for the world lies in
11:18 respecting people you know and seeing
11:21 what it is and that's not difficult we
11:24 know everyone should have access to
11:27 contraceptives everywhere but not be
11:30 forced because if you force people it
11:32 will
11:33 backfire and we know that the poorest in
11:36 Africa they will not use contraceptive
11:39 as long as they see their children dying
11:41 as long as they don't have a school in
11:42 the village as long as they need their
11:44 children for work Malala said they don't
11:47 go to school because they have to work
11:48 to support their family and as long as
11:51 things are like this they want their
11:53 kids and then some want their kid a
11:55 little too long many kids because some
11:58 men are proud because because I made so
12:00 many children uh and when men think that
12:04 their pride is having seven eight nine
12:06 children instead of how well their
12:08 children are doing that's oldfashioned
12:10 patriarchical thinking men have to think
12:12 my pride is how well my children are
12:14 doing how happy they are in life that's
12:17 my pride and when you get that attitude
12:20 change you have to get it's not only
12:22 providing services this is the number of
12:24 birth in the world it has already
12:26 happened the number of birth is not
12:29 increasing any longer in the
12:31 world the adults are increasing you get
12:35 it
12:36 now you understand why these adults are
12:38 adding it's these three just by the fill
12:42 up and it's this group here but it's
12:45 more to it it's more to it we have to go
12:47 a little more into details a little more
12:50 into details look
12:52 here now it's late in the evening and I
12:54 put the demanding explanation of
12:57 demography here to you each doll here is
13:00 100 million now these one were thousand
13:04 Millions 1 billion thousand Millions no
13:07 10 out of these dolls is one
13:10 here down here I have what is it should
13:13 be about 20 down there these ones are
13:16 Europeans children these are American
13:19 children these are African children as
13:21 many children in Africa as in the whole
13:24 of the Americas in Europe together and
13:25 these are Asian
13:27 children and you can see see that at the
13:30 age between 15 and 30 then there are
13:32 less Africans here's even less African
13:34 here's very few
13:36 Africans so the African population is
13:38 quite dramatic it's still increasing the
13:40 number of children in Asia they've
13:42 stopped
13:43 increasing remember the Asian curve it
13:46 was already down to
13:48 two so Asia is not increasing Africa is
13:51 at 4.5 they will continue to increase
13:54 for
13:55 another 30 years more or less 30 years
13:59 so what happens here is the following
14:01 you know it now the old dies the rest
14:04 grow older and they have their children
14:06 who one more in
14:09 Africa One Less in Asia that's why the
14:12 number of children doesn't increase the
14:15 increase of children in Africa is
14:17 compensated by a decrease of children in
14:20 Asia and Europe but Europe is so little
14:23 it doesn't matter
14:25 much they die they grow older and they
14:28 get children and one more in
14:31 Africa out of think like this out of
14:35 four children in China that pass their
14:38 15th birthday three are replaced by a
14:42 Chinese baby born and one is replaced by
14:45 a Nigerian baby
14:47 born that means that children
14:49 conceptually are moving from Asia to
14:53 Africa children in the world remain the
14:55 same but they are moving towards poverty
14:59 because in poverty the number of
15:00 children increase where countries are
15:02 more wealthy the number decrease that's
15:05 why it's a good reason to support
15:07 UNICEF children in the world need
15:10 support and here they die they get older
15:12 and they get children and they die and
15:14 they get older and they get children and
15:16 these is the fill up of adults you
15:19 remember the three billion I showed you
15:22 here these three
15:24 billions is the same as that group there
15:28 when I make it in more detail it's a
15:30 fill up of people and that's why Africa
15:32 will increase so much and Asia will
15:34 increase so much Africa also increase
15:36 her because of an increase of children
15:38 and Asia decreased down
15:41 there so longer
15:47 life this one I hope to be this
15:52 one I can follow statistics for 15 more
15:55 years you know and see what happens h
16:00 this we don't know we don't know here
16:02 you see if people want to decrease the
16:04 number of people in the world they think
16:05 provide prevent contraceptives in Africa
16:08 yes go for it but don't think you can
16:10 force poor women poor women are clever
16:13 otherwise they are dead don't think they
16:15 are dumb if they want many children it's
16:18 because they see their children dying
16:20 they need their kids to help them they
16:22 get a better life immediately they will
16:24 ask first for family planning to space
16:27 children to wait for the next child and
16:29 then decide how many they we have this
16:31 is a new tool that Gap minder have made
16:34 on our web page
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