The discussion centers on the significant volatility and upward potential of silver, driven by industrial demand and supply constraints, while also touching upon broader economic concerns related to fiat currency devaluation, government debt, and geopolitical shifts impacting commodity markets.
Mind Map
Klik untuk perbesar
Klik untuk menjelajahi mind map interaktif lengkap
Uh but you know from China's point of
view I mean I just put myself in the
shoes of the Chinese government and say
look what's going on. We've lost control
of the pricing. We controlled the price
for the last three decades. Okay fine
that's brilliant. We can't control it
anymore. Um we have lost that. Why?
Because India is now going through an
industrial revolution at the phase where
China was 25 years ago. It's clear to me
that silver has still a lot of upside
because it's turned into a gifen good,
you know, one where um a rising price
basically doesn't uh produce supply. If
You're watching Capital Cosm. It is
December 31st, 2025 and my name is Danny
and my guest today is Alistister Mloud,
my last guest of the year. Of course,
you'll be watching this at the new year
just around then. But Alistair, thank
you so much for taking the time today
and I couldn't think of a better guest
to close out the year for me.
>> Well, thank you very much indeed for
having me on, Danny.
>> Yeah. Well, let's uh let's just dive
right into the action and just get right
into it. Let's talk about what everyone
wants to talk about. Let's not beat
around the bush. It is silver. Uh you
see all this I mean this volatility. I'm
going to zoom in on the last four days
here uh from December 25th Christmas day
uh or the day after Christmas and it was
when the markets open or Christmas day
at night when the uh overnight market
open. But as you as you can see here,
it's just been one volatile swing after another.
another.
What's going on here? It seems these
these swings seem to coincide with um
the CME raising margin requirements.
Um you saw it here on Monday. They
raised them once and then uh as of
yesterday raised them again another
time. Now we're down again today. Uh the
question is
will these margin requirements actually
amount to anything or are these more of
a speed bump? What do you make of this
volatility in
>> I think yeah I think a speed bump is
probably a reasonable description. Um I
mean bear in mind that the shorts uh for
their mark tomarket year end we want to
see silver as low as possible. So I
think there's a bit of motivation there.
Let's let's put it that way.
>> Mhm. But um you know we were chatting
before you pressed the record button and
um you know as I said and you checked it
out um so this is right there still backquidations
backquidations
>> and if anything this morning the
backidations are greater than they have
been in the last couple of days between London
London
uh spot where the price is higher than
on Comx. um you know this is this is a
market which um just cannot deliver the
physical uh the squeeze is not so much
on comx but it's more in London where um
I have absolutely no doubt uh industrial
users of silver uh are basically buying
forward contracts and uh taking delivery
and there is not the liquidity there I
mean various other people have sort of
assessed the amount of um
uh free silver as it were. Um but they
can't sort of get it quite right because
um you've got I mean the bulk of the
silver in the London vaulting system is
actually ETF owned. So that is not
liquid. I mean okay there ways in which
you can access it if you're an
authorized participant and all the rest
of it but for all intents and purposes
it is not liquid. something like 150 odd
uh million ounces in excess of that. But
you know, an awful lot of that is in
firm hands already.
>> So the liquidity is I mean, you know, if
one said it was virtually zero, I don't
think you'd be far on the mark. And this
is the problem. The problem is in
London. Um I mean it's an interesting
thing. Uh I I ran the uh bank
participation report off the December
one um couple of days ago.
because there was some I think it was an
AI bot uh which came up with this sort
of wonderful thing about how the US
banks were in trouble though terribly short
short
but actually um if you look at just at
paper um the US banks are actually long
of silver um on comx and um but if you
look at the foreign banks or what they
call non US banks they're the ones who
are short
one assumes that there would be long of
paper in London. But the problem is that
even if they're long of paper in London,
they're being effectively stood for
delivery, if you like, by industrial
buyers who come into the market and buy
a forward contract and then want the
real stuff. So the squeeze is actually
um I think very very uh tight and
difficult. And the problem is that you
know everybody in industry realizes now
that uh you know if they're in the
business of making photovoltaics cells
electronic vehicles defense industry etc
etc they need silver and they need to
get it damn quick otherwise they're not
going to have any manufacturing
material. So, we have a situation, I
think, where the price gets dri driven
up um by this sort of demand and it's a
one-way ticket because there's no
industrial user who sort of says, well,
I got a little excess stuff here, you
know, I can maybe trade it out, sell a
bit into the market and take a profit
and buy it back cheaper, or I can hedge
it, you know. No, they're not there
anymore. Those guys basically realize
what's going on. And I think one of the
the things that's interesting about the
timing of um this very very sharp
volatility is that of course it occurs
at a time when any respectable industrial
industrial
user is on holiday. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> You know he's he's still digesting his
Christmas pudding and looking forward to
well if it's Scotsman Hogman and too
much whiskey. So, so the the um you know
the timing from the swap's point of view
who've got a year-end problem coming up,
you know, like my bonuses depend on me
making profits or being able to show
that I make profits and my mark to
market doesn't um kill those profits.
Yeah, they love to bash it down. So,
that's what's going on. I think it's as
simple as that. I think there is a
broader question as to um what China is
actually doing. I mean uh it it it is
interesting because China has uh is
introducing really from next week
officially a new licensing um export
licensing um uh regime. And um it's not
stopping silver going out. It's just
tightening up on uh the export regime.
And I think it's giving China greater
control if you like over its it over
domestic stocks. domestic stocks in the
widest sense, not just uh China's own
stocks. And I believe they've got a lot
of stock which they've, you know, which
they they've stored effectively because
you're talking about uh the the second
largest silver miner um but also um the
largest refiner by far and bear in mind
it's not just imported silver dory, it's
also imported um copper ores, nickel
ores, lead ores, zinc ores and all
these. I mean, refining is a dirty
business. China doesn't mind doing it.
We in the West don't want to muck up our
hands with this. And that's actually
incidentally one of the reasons why
China has a virtual monopoly on rare
earths because rare earths also come out
of this refining thing. I mean aluminium
on boxite I understand is is is is uh
one source if you like of rare earths
and um you require a lot of electricity
to ref you know to to uh turn boxite
into into aluminium and who's got the
electricity now
we haven't we used to do it actually in
Fort William which is in Scotland where
we had hydroelect electric power I don't
know if we do it anymore I don't think
we do I think that's closed down um but
uh you know can America could do it.
Well, you know, they're at the moment um
powering loads and loads of computers to
do AI or um mine Bitcoin or whatever,
you know. So, we just don't have the
electrical capacity, if you like, to
compete with the Chinese in these
matters. So, yeah, um I think China
realizes that it's got, you know, it's
got us firmly in it, in its grasp. I mean,
mean,
>> short curlies. Yeah. I I won't use the
rude word if you like, but that's
So, um uh but you know, from China's
point of view, I mean, I just put myself
in the shoes of the Chinese government
and said, "Look what's going on. We've
lost control of the pricing. We
controlled the price for the last three
decades. Okay, fine. That's brilliant.
We can't control it anymore. Um we have
lost that." Why? Because India is now
going through an industrial revolution
at the phase where China was 25 years ago.
ago.
She's growing. I mean and demand for
silver yet for industrial purposes is
just absolutely enormous. And of on top
of that of course throughout Asia um you
know you would think that there would be
some silver sort of coming out um you
know scrap and all the rest of it but no
uh the Asians hang on to their scrap
because do they want silver or do they
want rupees or real or what you know
it's it's a no-brainer they hang on to
their silver. So um the squeeze I think
has only just started now. I I wouldn't
claim to know how this is going to
progress minute by minute or day by day,
but um it's clear to me that silver has
still a lot of upside because it's
turned into a gifen good. You know, one
where um a rising price basically
doesn't uh produce supply. If anything,
it encourages demand. It does the
reverse of what um you know the charts
that we've all been shown do. You know
sort of rising uh
>> demand gets capped by price. Price the
function of price basically is to
balance supply and demand. So um you get
the increase in supply at the higher
prices. That's not going to happen and
it's not happening now.
>> Is the paper market an an accurate
representation still of the physical
price of silver? because it seems more
and more so it's diverging away. Now you
have this arbitrage between Comx and
Shanghai and typically these
arbitrageages they they fill the gap
gets filled relatively quickly because
there's uh there's an incentive to do
so. this gap has been open now for over
a week and it seems more and more so
there's all these different mechanisms
of quote unquote price suppression and
so forth and in a in a way is this not
price control in a very to some degree
and with and if it is price controls
again to a not in total but to to a
degree doesn't it imply the after
effects of price controls which would be
supply shortages in the process you
don't let the price reach its true value.
value.
>> I don't think it's price control as
such. I mean, it's the consequence of um
you know, many years of um uh demand
exceeding supply. I mean, just look at
the silver institute um tables um they
show for the last five or six years or
whatever that uh there's been more
silver demanded than supply and the
difference has always been made up by
the category they call investment. Yeah,
it's not investment. It's Chinese stocks
basically. I mean the fascinating thing
is that in 2023,
China supplied silver to um the west. I
think I can't remember the exact
figures. Uh so please don't hold me to
it. But I think we were looking at
something like 300 million ounces being
supplied to the west. The fascinating
thing is that the um supply is actually
to um the UK, Singapore, and I can't
remember there's another one. I mean,
basically, it was going into financial
centers. Uh and then in 2024, again, it
was about 300 something,000 ounces,
sorry, 300 million ounces. I'm talking
millions, millions of ounces. um and uh
that went um to what I would call more
industrial countries. So you could see
that what was happening is that um you
know it was going it was getting vaulted
in places like Singapore, London,
Switzerland, wherever wherever you know
where the vaults are in 2023 but in 2024
it was definitely being drawn down by
industry. So um you know look this is
important to understand because this is
why China is trying to um restrict if
you like the export of silver. I mean
there's no doubt about it. Silver you
know as far as China is concerned um the
importance of silver is absolutely going
off the charts. They cannot afford to
lose stocks. So I think that's really
why they've got this new licensing
regime. It's not a question of China
stopping all exports. No, not at all.
But she wants to just really control
them. So I think that's what's going to
happen. Um as as regards the price, you
know, the relationship between paper and
uh physical. I mean basically
um industry is using um and remember I
haven't, you know, said that this that
investors are doing this. They're not.
They're not in it at all. But industry
is basically using paper markets,
derivatives as a means of acquiring
physical. I mean on uh uh comx something
like 15,000 tons has been stood for
delivery this year. Now of that 15,000
tons I guess the majority of it the vast
majority of it uh would be industry
using futures as a means of acquiring
the physical.
There is no nation on earth that
produces as much as nearly 60%
of of uh
mined silver as it were. This is silver
if you like coming out of the woodwork
one way or the other. Um and it
represents roughly 60% of annual mine
output. This is just through comx.
I don't know how much is going through
London um because we just don't have the figures.
figures.
But this is the function now. This is
the function of paper and that is to
turn paper into physical. And this is
something which I think is going to
really mean that uh we're getting
towards the end of uh the paper markets
as we know it. And there's no um or
virtually no uh speculative interest in
this at all. I mean if you look at the
open interest on COMX um that is low
it's around about 155
uh000 contracts which um is certainly
not excessive and indicates that the
speculators are just not there. So it's
a you know this this is an interesting
thing and we have yet to see
uh investors turning to silver in
anything like the sort of quantity of
numbers that um you would expect of
something which is you know not only
rising but um looks like you know a
reasonable play.
Is that what you gather when you look at
the silver miners which have pretty much
just tracked the price of silver where in
in
in different predicaments they should
outperform the price of silver? I think
that's actually um uh you know an
interesting relationship because if um
they were outperforming uh silver that
would confirm that investor interest is
moving into the sector but it's not and
there is I mean the invest you know
investors basically have gone nap on AI
and things like that they haven't bought
into the mining sector at all and
they're actually missing the biggest
market of all at the moment Now I mean
we know that gold is if you like discounting
discounting
um a certain amount of loss of
purchasing power in the dollar in 2026.
I mean we can't can't measure it. Um but
I mean that's a logical um um if you
like a deduction of uh what has really
been happening between uh gold and the
dollar. Um but nobody's really um you
know looking at the prospects for the
dollar. I mean, you know, we we get cuts
in interest rates from the Fed and
they're talking about another cut and
they're talking about um QE and all
this, you know, all this refractory
stuff. But does anybody actually think
that the purchasing power of the dollar
is going to decline seriously in 2026?
They don't.
I mean, you know, put another way
around, more conventionally,
um what do people expect inflation to do
in 2026?
They think it'll be subdued. They're
wrong. They're horribly wrong. Gold is
saying you're wrong. Not only that, but
the persistence of higher bond yields is
also saying they're wrong because high
bond yields are required to compensate
holders for loss of purchasing power
when they buy uh bonds. You know, what's
my dollar going to buy me? I bought
these dollar bonds. What are they going
Yeah, I pulled up I I pulled up the oops
I pulled up I pulled up the price of
silver here in green and the price of
SIL as well on a percent scale and they
pretty much are in tandem. Uh silver's
up 162% this year. Uh silver miners are
up 165%. So that they've pretty much
moved in tandem with the precious metal.
There was a gap where SIL was outperforming
outperforming
uh the physical price, but that's pretty
much been closed recently with the
recent price move up. But it could also
spell that there could be a lag between
SIL or the silver miners and silver.
What do you how likely do you think that
is? Is is there a lag here waiting to
create another gap up in the mining
stocks that hasn't been fully priced in
>> uh given the recent rise in the metals
or do investors not or the smart money
not see this recent rally in silver
being sustained
>> I think smart money is confused actually
over the whole thing um I mean it's an
interesting chart that because one thing
I would say is that silver miners are
not a very liquid market so you got
factor that into account. I mean when
you see um uh you know an index if you
like of of silver miner miners beginning
to catch up with the silver price um it
doesn't necessarily mean that there has
been buying. It's just um you know the
it's just markup more than buying if you
like or you know an element of the two.
So um I I mean if if silver starts
consolidating and people begin to
understand this um you know the
arguments that we've been discussing
about industrial demand and so on and so
forth then I think you'll find that
silver mines I mean the decent ones will
start outperforming the metal
um if the metal consolidates. So um but
I don't see any consolidation really
lasting terribly long and I don't see it
being very deep. I mean the the test
will be once these year-end distortions
are out of the way. But I do think that
um as far as silver mines are concerned,
I mean they've got a wonderful
situation. I mean not only has the price
of silver shot up um it does mean that
they can uh very profitably mine lower
grades. Uh but the other thing is that
energy costs which are the main cost
have remained subdued. I mean what's not
to like from the P&L point of view? It's
it's um it's a very very interesting
situation and I would say these silver
mines I don't think they've discounted
uh even the current price of silver let
alone where it might go over the next 12 months.
months.
>> Yeah. So let's actually do that. Let's
do silver divided by oil and look at
that ratio.
See how that pans out. So let's turn
this off.
So yeah, I mean it's shot up 222%
the silver to oil ratio
this year.
>> There you go.
>> So yeah, massive outperformance there.
>> The mine managers will be rubbing their
hands with glee.
Investors have yet to understand it, I
think, or or fully appreciated. Anyway,
>> here here's another chart, Alistister. I
just pulled this up, too. This is the
price of gold in green, and then in
white you have the M2 money supply. And
if if we zoom in to
2020, you saw gold run first and then
the money supply jack up. Uh what is it?
Gold began running in May of 19. Uh but
the M2 money supply didn't start running
until March. So it's as if like gold was
pricing in a huge spike in the M2 money supply
supply
um before it even happened. And I can't
help but think that something similar is being
being
>> played out now or insiders piling into
gold because they have inside knowledge
that this white line is about to go, you
know, a little more vertical.
>> Yeah, I don't think that knowledge is
all that inside. I mean, you know, the
Fed made it quite clear, you know, um
we're stopping QT
and we're now doing QE and uh you know,
this brings something else into play. I
mean, well, two other things. If you
look at the way the economy is going,
look at the beige book, which is what
the Fed really um uh treats very, very
seriously because it's a publication of
its own regional offices. The beige book
says that um it the economy is on the
verge of recession. I think actually the
beige book is um being a bit optimistic
in that sense because if you look at
GDP, take out the government deficit and
yes the private sector is in you know
the the non-inancial private sector is
in uh um recession already and has been
for the last two years. Um, so I think
the Fed is actually waking up to this
and they're preparing to do more QE. And
apart from anything else, I think that
the virtual impossibility of the US
Treasury funding itself on the long end
of the yield curve and seeing the carry
trade may be losing its um, you know,
its its its uh, status as it were. plus
Japanese institutions probably signaling
that um they're getting more attracted
by rising JGB bond yields um so
therefore are less keen if you like on
putting new money into into US
treasuries. I mean it's becomes a a
situation really where funding is being
increasingly done through tea bills and
um who's going to help them do that?
Well, it's got to be the Fed
>> because um you know they go in, they
will buy the tea bills, they will buy
they will buy the longer issues which um
can't be um uh marketed effectively um
and turn them into T bills because um
what you will do what they will do is
they will add to the reserves of the
banks um in other words the deposits on
bank deposits held at the Fed and those
deposits will be invested in in T-built
an agency debt whatever. So um you know
this is this is money printing by any other
other
>> stretch of the imagination. So that
chart showing you know the relationship
between gold and M2 and all the rest of
it. Gold should be beginning to discount
a very big jump in um the quantity of
federal um currency
>> and deposits.
>> Well check this out.
>> All right. Quick break here because if
you're buying gold or silver the normal
way, you're probably overpaying by a
lot. And that's because most retail
dealers quietly tack on these huge
markups. Sometimes 10%, sometimes 20%,
sometimes even 30%. And you don't even
notice it. It's like paying $115
for a $100 bill. Doesn't make sense,
right? So that's why I've been using the
Boolean Standard Pro. It's a membership
that basically lets you buy precious
metals at real wholesale prices. The
same prices that dealers get. So, no
inflated premiums, no middleman games.
Their platform updates every 5 seconds
straight from mints and distributors.
So, what you see is literally the real
market. And here's the crazy part. If
you buy something like this gold
American Eagle, here's the amount of
money you're going to be saving at the
time of this recording at least. So, it
basically pays for itself multiple folds
on many occasions depending on what you
buy. And if you try it out, they're
hooking up my viewers with an exclusive
10% off their first month. Just use
promo code COSM10 at checkout. That's
coosm 10 at checkout. So, if you're
stacking, investing, or just tired of
getting hit with hidden markups, check
them out now. Boolean Standard Pro.
Click on the link down below in the
description box and use promo code cosm.
Now, let's get back to the video. You
talked about GDP. Well, GDP is soaring
as you can see here on this chart.
However, this is GDP in US dollars. If I
price GDP in gold, this is what you get
instead. So, this is US GDP divided by
gold. And you'll notice that we've
actually been declining since March of
2024. I mean, we've been declining for a
lot longer than that, but this most
recent trend started in March of 2024.
But so, here's the thing, Alistair. I
think people have to start wrapping
their head around a new unit of account
because we've always just used the
dollar and fiat currency as a unit of
account. Do you think it's time to start
using gold as that unit of account
moving forward given the uh the current
state of fiat? I mean, the inevitable
fate of fiat here. I mean what do you
make of this chart here looking at GDP
because this tells us that we we
actually the economy actually peaked in 2001.
2001.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Um I mean it yeah if you
look at the economy I mean that sort of
rather confirms I think that it's if you
like being stagnant or stagnated or it
hasn't really gone anywhere for for for
some time. I'm not sure that that uh
chart really matters. I think we have to
look at what GDP really is. All GDP is
is the quantity of bank credit
circulating in the economy. Um and it
does not tell you about how that credit
is being deployed.
So um I mean apart from credit which
goes into the financial sector which is
including I mean not not not um you know
into the employment side and the cost
side of the financial sector but going
into stocks going into this that and the
other thing investments financial
instruments that is excluded from the
GDP numbers and correctly so um but the
real point about GDP is it doesn't
actually tell you what the economy is
doing. So it's actually pretty useless
in that sense. What it does tell the
government is what its tax base is and
that is the beginning and end of what
GDP should be. It is a government
accounting mechanism so that it can see
what its tax revenue is going to be. Now
this is very important because um people
buying let's say US treasury debt
particularly when um you have got um a
very high level of uh interest payments
which is the case and you have an
economy which is not generating the
income for the government you know in
terms of taxes for the government to sustain
sustain
the level of its debt then quite clearly
this is indicating that uh the
government is in a debt trap
and I think a rational examination of US GDP
GDP
the government's interest uh costs
annual interest costs which are now what
a trillion dollars or something and at
the same time um
that the budget deficit I mean it's it's
quite clear that uh the US government is
now in a debt trap
which basically means that um you know
you've got sort of two steps. The first
one is you know people waking up to this
fact and nobody no longer saying uh well
we have faith in the dollar. Yeah well
so what that's not going to matter. So
that's the first stage and the second
stage I think is when um they actually
act on it and they say this is a debt
trap. interest rates should be higher
and you know what if interest rates and
bond yields go higher I'm even less
interested in buying dollars that's the
point about a debt trap and we are
actually pretty much on the cusp of that
and I think that's very important to understand
where do you think we
do you think we go in January because
you mentioned earlier in the podcast
that all this action is just occurring
on the quietest couple of weeks of the
year towards the end when the office
reopens come next Monday. How do you
think things react here? What do you
think? Are they are these when I'm going
to get a little tinfoil hat here. Are
they just placing this speed bump in
regards to margin requirements higher
just to slow down the price appreciation
of silver so their buddies on Wall
Street can go long on silver? Are they
giving themselves an opportunity that
way? But be that as it may, how do you
think Wall Street reacts come the start
of January, the start of the new year to
what we've seen transpired the last
couple of weeks?
>> Yeah. Well, I I think the point I'd make
uh about um margin requirements
is that um you know the the uh um you
know ComX and also the Shanghai futures
exchange which have been doing the same
thing are absolutely right. I mean when
you get volatility like this you need to
have better margins because otherwise I
mean you know if you get a failure then
you know it's it's it's the market that
it's it's the um you know it's COX or
the SHFA that takes it on the chin you
know and they don't have the resources
to bail out or to assume the liabilities
of someone else. So they do need to
manage this and I think we've got to
accept that
as to what happens in the new year. I
mean this is going to be very very
interesting. Um I think that uh the u
persistence of um backquidations between
London and Comx means that silver could
well you know I mean this could just
turn out to be you know as you say a
speed bump and it just continues on up.
Um we don't know. um this sort of
Cassandra like foresight is is not
necessarily gifted to us. I mean my view
on this is that you know if you like as
a as an investor or or whatever is you
just stack and just you know don't worry
because this is going higher. It's going
a lot higher. I don't know when but I
know it's going higher. What I would
worry about actually and I think this
this could be a bit of a speed another
speed bump uh is that um there is no
doubt that the equities and particularly
US equities are in a huge bubble.
Rising bond yields if that occurs in the
next two or three months will pop that
bubble and when that bubble pops bubble
pops watch out. I mean the the um credit
bubble is larger than anything we have
seen in history in recorded history so
far as we can see. I mean it's even
maybe larger than the South Sea bubble
maybe even larger than John Law's
Mississippi bubble don't know but it's
larger in my view than 1929 to 1932.
1920s you had the runup it was a sort of
two to threeyear runup of the roaring
20s. um when everything was absolutely
wonderful, everybody could make money
etc etc and then you had the smooth holy
tariff act uh which was discussed in
debated in congress in 29 enacted in
1930. Today we've got a larger credit
bubble fueled into the equity market and
at the same time we have got Trump's
beautiful tariffs which actually we
don't know how you know to what extent
these tariffs are because he keeps on
changing his mind. It makes it virtually
impossible and this is an additional
factor impossible for any international
trade involving the Americans to um to
cost itself. So the whole situation is
in my view a lot worse than 1929 to 1932
when um the Dow lost 90% of its value,
89% to be exact and some 10,000 small
banks went out of business. I mean this
is what we're talking about now. This
time the Fed can't allow banks to go out
of business. Not only that, but it can't
allow zombie corporations to go out of
business big time. Not only that, but
ever since Greenspan, the mantra has
been you've got to keep the market high
in order to keep confidence going.
They're going to have to go into the
market and I think they will do what the
Japanese bank, central bank has been
doing, Bank of Japan and that is they
will buy equity ETFs to try and support
the market. Won't work. It might work to
an extent but it's very bad news for the
dollar. I mean the dollar will start
losing its value very rapidly in 2026
which basically means put another way
consumer prices are going to go through
the roof and then of course in 2027 what
will we have? We will have governments
trying to control prices. Every
politician I've ever spoken to knows
that price control is the most stupid
thing you can do. What do they do? They
introduce price controls. Why? Because
the whole thing is political.
And I think that's the thing that people
have got to realize. This is being
driven by politics, not by sensible
economic analysis.
>> Yeah, they can pump as many dollars they
want into the stock market, but in real
terms, it won't mean a thing. I mean,
point of fact, here's the S&P for this
year priced in gold. Again, shifting
your unit of account to gold shows a 30
plus% decline this year in the S&P. And
if you take a longer term view, this is
on a log scale. If I look at it from a
linear scale, it's even more apparent.
It it actually shows that we've been on
a downtrend for quite a while now, since
2022. And we haven't hit a high since
2000 or so. And here's the
when it's shifted back to a lock scale.
Here's the 1929 crash you alluded to, Alistair.
Alistair.
and S&P price in gold saw what from top
to bottom saw a 80 84 85% crash.
crash. >> Remember
>> Remember
>> we were on a gold standard there at
20.67 which persisted right into um >> Mhm.
>> Mhm.
>> Well, I mean I think Jan January 34 was
when it was actually devalued when the
dollar was devalued. Yeah.
Yeah.
>> So I mean that's you know that will be
the same in dollars that that particular
one but now absolutely no nothing
>> to secure the value of the dollar. The
dollar the dollar is in freef fall
itself. So I mean it's interesting I was
looking at numbers um in the best
documented hyperinflation
ever the German one in 1920 to23
and uh in uh between 19 February 1921
sorry I'm I'm I'm shifted a year out
between December 20 sorry January 20 and
December 21,
the the the German stock market more or
less tripled. And at that stage, believe
it or not, the uh Deutsch mark, the
sorry, the Reich mark was just about the
strongest currency in the world. It
started fading towards the end of that
period and um measured in gold, its
purchasing power starting to decline
quite rapidly, which upset the stock
market. the stock market crashed
but because the Reich mark crashed
itself very significantly the decline in
the in an index if you like of the
stocks was around about 25%.
But measured in gold it was 93%.
>> So uh that's the relevance of of um you
know sort of looking at the S&P in gold
terms today. And um I mean the situation
I think in many senses was very very
similar to what we have today. I mean
the fascinating thing is that um you
know the finance minister Carl Heerik I
think it was uh you know he actually
wrote a book on economics and he was
regarded as um a foremost economist
rather like Kanes was at that time in
the the very early 20s.
And not only that, but uh when it came
to replacing the Reich's mark with the
new ransom mark in November 23, he was
the guy who put together the plan. It
was helmet Shak who actually, you know,
took over the central banking facility.
But it was Hellfrick who actually did
did this. Now he was finance minister.
He presided over the collapse of the
currency. He knew what was going on,
but he was powerless to stop it. He
encouraged it. It was political. This is
the whole point. And I think people who
just look at the sort of economic
situation and say the Fed's doing this,
Fed's doing that, whatever, whatever,
and the outlook is boom. They're missing
the whole point. The whole thing is
driven by politics. That is really what
determines the outcomes, not
macroeconomic analysis. I mean, that's
just, you know, forget it. It's just a
waste of time.
>> Mentioned politics. Is this is this
thing that's going on with silver today?
Is that tied into the stuff going on
between the United States and Venezuela
and South America by virtue of uh
kicking out China from the region and
forcing them to find their own silver
elsewhere? Yeah, I mean I think I think
China is actually being a lot more
pragmatic about things. Um
it really started when Trump started to
um you know talk about 140% tariffs and
all the rest of it against China. So
what China did was it said okay you know
I mean they didn't actually care. I mean
yes obviously they care to a degree but
um the amount of trade they were doing
with bricks was actually far greater
than what they were doing with America.
Um you know the deficit that well her
surplus if you like uh export surplus
China's export surplus to America was
considerably less than it was to to
bricks. So um in a sense uh she had
already protected herself against this.
But when China when Trump decided to cut
up really rough on on uh uh tariffs then
China countered
effectively saying well if that's your
and uh oh oh says Trump you know and he
started backing off but I think what
we're seeing with China's um policy over
silver is an extension of the rare
earth's story, she realizes two things
and that is that um she's actually
controlling some very very rare
materials which the west needs
and the second thing is that she needs
it for herself.
So she's not going to let this go as it
were and I don't I don't think there's a
price really which is going to change
her mind.
So um because since the rare earth thing
she's also taken on on board the
necessity to um control the licensing if
you like put it that way of of silver
exports and also antimony is another one
which uh um as I understand it I'm not a
materologist but I understand that
antimony is is is a very important um uh
uh metal if you like to um anneal with
uh lead in in uh um you know in in
ammunition and that sort of thing. So
you know if you haven't got any antimony
you can't um make ammunition you know of
all sorts. So, China has actually got
the West, as I was saying earlier, by
the gonads. You know, it's um and we're
only, you know, we don't really realize
this. I mean, it's just extraordinary.
We sort of, but I mean, you know, there
are the two reasons. Firstly, she
realizes that she can control us this
way. And the second thing is she
realizes she needs this stuff for her
own purposes, her own industries. I mean
the difference between the US and China
in a sense is that the US is interested
if you like in uh state technology um uh
defense technology and so on so forth
whereas China develops her technology in
the private sector basically for
consumer goods. It's a completely
different thing. And now it does mean
that China's use of these rare
materials, rare earth, silver, antimony,
aluminium, and all the rest of it is far
far greater than America's. She cannot
all the rest of the world. She cannot
afford to lose control over uh these
important metals. So, she's hanging on
to them. And that's the story of silver
as well.
I mean certainly what you're saying I
mean you're saying about Latin America I
mean that is interesting because there's
a geopolitical balance here.
America is decided I think um that um
because nothing seems to work in terms
of trying to control China trying to you
know ensure that the global south
doesn't sort of migrate towards China
etc etc. I mean America is lost on
everything. She's hated around the
world, which doesn't exactly help. Um,
what she's doing, I think, is she's
decided that she needs to um control the
Americas rather than try and control the
world. So, China sees this and thinks,
okay, you know, we're going to be losing
quite a lot of stuff in um, you know,
Chile, Venezuela, whatever, whatever, whatever.
whatever.
Um there's a battlefield in Africa uh
which our mutual friend Simon Hunt was
talking about last time we we were on uh
in the DRC but that's also Zambia as
well. We're talking about copper there
and just look at the copper price. I
mean you know silver is copper on
steroids if you like but I mean they're
going in the same direction. So um you
do have that international uh uh problem
but I think America is concentrating
more on um its own uh you know sort of
if you like Central America and Southern
America and controlling that and if you
like as placing less emphasis on uh on
on Eurasia and I think this is part of
Trump's um approach to the Ukraine situation.
situation.
um can't quite be as far as Israel is
concerned because the Israeli lobby is
just so strong. I mean it really is in
America. But you can see the big shifts
here. So from China's point of view, she
could probably accept the American logic
of trying to control the Americas as
long as she's got the rest of the world.
>> Yeah. And you mentioned these other
metals because platinum and palladium
also moved with the price of silver um
on that big day we had last week.
Platinum actually I think overtook
silver on the day or something like that
or got really close to it. What's your
view on platinum? At one point platinum
was actually priced higher than gold.
Now it's about half the price of gold or
a little less than or a little Yeah, a
little less than half the price of gold.
uh how do you see platinum playing out
given that it's still like from a
platinum to gold ratio from a platinum
to silver ratio uh it's kind of
underperformed these other two metals
>> well I don't actually analyze platinum
and palladium um you know I just sort of
note that they they move and I think
from a market point of view um you know
they're rather like silver on steroids I
mean you you've got in terms of
production you haven't got um mines if
you like all over the world which can
sort sort of produce platinum and you
know take it further and do palladium.
Um you know this is very very tight. I
mean you got Russia uh obviously South
Africa they traditionally were the only
two sources of these metals. I'm sure
there are others now I think I you know
but as I say I haven't analyzed it but I
think it's a tighter market in effect
than silver and therefore more volatile
and so to see platinum really suddenly
shoot up I mean for a long time nobody
wanted platinum they wanted palladium
now it seems it's the other way round I
think it's just um it's just part of the
whole scene I mean if you look at um
base metals priced in gold I mean look
at silver. Sorry, look look at copper
priced in gold. If you run that chart,
you'll see that um you know it's way
down. I mean, compared with the year
1900, I think it's about 18% of the price.
price. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> It's at an all-time low.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. So, so now some of
that is is maybe gold discounting, you
know, the dollar's further decline into
uh 2026.
Um but if you if you look at that chart,
you can you can see that actually
because you know gold's purchasing power
over long periods of time is relatively stable.
stable. >> Mhm.
>> Mhm.
>> Um that tells me that uh copper is underpriced
underpriced
by any measure. If it's underpriced in
gold, it's underpriced by any measure.
So what's going to happen price of gold?
It's g of of copper. It's going to go
through the roof, I think. Um, and it's,
you know, it could even, it should even
go up against gold.
Let's assume that gold even goes to, I
don't know, 5 $10,000. You'll get
copper, maybe even, you know, sort of
going up more rapidly in declining fiat
currencies. This is a crisis for fiat
currencies. This is the end of the fiat
currency era that we're seeing. They
have depressed. I mean, if you look at
the price of copper in in in dollars,
you get a completely different chart.
And you think, oh, you know, copper's
up, but it's not because we know in real
terms, it certainly is not. If you've
got it there in dollars, you'll see what
I mean.
>> Yeah. Alltime high. >> Exactly.
>> Exactly.
And uh look at aluminium or aluminum as
uh your friends over there would call
it. That's another one I I spotted today.
today.
you know. >> Oh,
>> Oh,
>> there you go. Yeah.
>> Uh, you know, don't tell me that, um,
you know, inflation is not going to be a
problem in 2026.
>> Out of curiosity, I charted CO uh, COPEX
divided by GDX, the copper miners versus
the precious miners, uh, the precious
the gold miners, I should say.
>> Yeah. And uh it looks like I don't know
COP X looks still relatively under
>> underperforming GDX but it looks like it
may be basing out here or something a
bit. It's I think it's one to watch out
for. Yeah, I think I think an index uh
will pro probably has uh Freeport
McMarren with their very very big
Grassburg um mine in um uh in Indonesia.
They've had real production
difficulties. So their share price I
think has actually you know I mean look
I don't follow it but I would guess
their share price is way way down. Um,
>> I mean the real cop, you know, the real
copper story is China. China's got it
basically. I mean, it just gets all the imports,
imports,
>> but but here's here's here's the nominal
value of of COPEX, the copper miners
index. Uh, and it's it's so it's at
all-time highs.
>> You chart it against copper. You price
it in copper, it's outperforming copper. So,
So,
>> yeah, that's good.
>> I think it's early innings for the
copper miners in this case.
>> Yeah. Interesting. Interesting.
>> All right.
>> One reason I like talking with you
actually, Danny, because you're so good
with your charts.
>> Oh, thank you.
>> Yeah. I mean, I look at this stuff all
day. Um I'm kind of I'm I've never been
tested for it, but I wouldn't be
surprised if I was on the spectrum of
some sort, but be that as it may, it's a
pleasure having you on as always,
Alistair. Anything else you'd like to
talk about before we wrap this uh this
episode out?
>> Actually, I tell you, there is one
thing. There is one thing and I want
everybody to watch out for this. With
this new AI, you're getting people
pretending to be other people. >> Mhm.
>> Mhm.
>> So, I mean, it's interesting. I was
reading something that Pepe Escobar um
wrote yesterday, was it today about how
um videos are being done um which make
it look like it's him in various
languages and all the rest of it and
it's not him at all. Um, and I think
what it means is that you've got to, you
know, everybody should be very, very
careful who they actually subscribe for
on, you know, subtax, whatever, you
know, YouTube videos and all the rest of
it, social media, because AI is actually
taking literally taking words out of our
mouths and uh, using them for other
purposes. So, be careful who you
subscribe for. I think that's
desperately important. Yeah. Anyway, >> obviously
>> obviously obviously
obviously
you might say, "Well, I would say that,
wouldn't I?" But it's I think it is a
new feature which we got to be very very
careful for about um
>> Yeah. I mean, you're kind of biased as a
human being to say that, Alistister. I
mean, who are you to hate on these AI
bots just because you're flesh and blood
and carbon based?
>> Funnily enough, I've got Yeah. Well,
exactly. I've got a I've got a very very
good friend uh who has an AI buddy um
>> and uh she asked him all sorts of
questions and he's very helpful and all
the rest of it. It's actually scary. It
really is. It really is.
>> And it's only going to get better from here.
here. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> That's the scary part. It's this is this
is as this is as uh as as low as it's
ever going to be. It's only gonna get
better from here. So
>> you reckon
>> where where can people find you? Um
Alistister, fellow human.
>> Fellow human. Well, mloud financeubstack.com
financeubstack.com
um will get you there. It's quite simple
quite similar to capitalcosm.substack.com.
capitalcosm.substack.com.
So um anyway, I'd love to to just say to
everybody who watches this, I mean, you
know, good luck in 2026.
It's going to be a very interesting year
in the Chinese proverbial sense.
>> Um and um I think it's going to be a
time when
capital preservation rather than capital
accumulation is actually going to be the
sensible strategy. Protect your wealth.
It's going to be quite difficult to do
as well and to feed the family and
>> to ensure those around you don't suffer
too much. I mean, it's it's it's it's
not going to be pleasant when you get a collapse
collapse
>> get a collapse of the currency, when you
get, you know, food prices rocketing and
all the rest of it. Um, no, this is not
fun. It's not it's no joke. No joke.
>> Yeah. 95% of people are just oblivious
to all this we just spoke about. So, for
the people that are watching this
content and this video, um, the burden
lies on us to inform those close to us,
um, get them ready for what's going on.
um because they are going to be shocked.
It's going to be a shocking event and
most people are still in denial. They're
still waiting for Bitcoin to go back up
and I don't know if maybe maybe it does
in in 10 years or so. I I don't know. But
But
>> who cares?
>> Yeah, who cares? I mean, at the end,
we've got bigger fish to fry here. So,
um Alistister, thank you so much for
coming on, my friend. I really
appreciate it. Be sure to check out
Alistair Substack, everyone. We'll have
a link down below. And if you got value
out of this podcast, hit the like and
subscribe. Happy new year everyone. Uh
let me know what you thought of the
podcast. I do in fact read the comments.
Um and uh I may not be able to reply to
each and every one of them, but I do
read them. Hit that subscribe button as
well. Hit that bell notifications. Press
all the buttons you can my friends. Um
because it does help us in the long run.
A little bit does go a long way in
helping push this video and this channel
in the algorithm. And so if you
appreciate the work that we're doing
here, I would you know I'd appreciate
it. Uh likewise. um as well. Also check
us out on Substack at capitalcosm.substack.com
capitalcosm.substack.com
to get all of my stuff early and ad
free. And with all that said, happy new
year everyone. Catch you later. Bye.
Klik teks atau cap waktu mana pun untuk melompat ke momen tersebut dalam video
Bagikan:
Sebagian besar transkrip siap dalam waktu kurang dari 5 detik
Salin Satu Klik125+ BahasaCari KontenLoncat ke Cap Waktu
Tempel URL YouTube
Masukkan link video YouTube apa saja untuk mendapatkan transkrip lengkap
Formulir Ekstraksi Transkrip
Sebagian besar transkrip siap dalam waktu kurang dari 5 detik
Pasang Ekstensi Chrome Kami
Dapatkan transkrip seketika tanpa meninggalkan YouTube. Pasang ekstensi Chrome kami untuk akses satu klik ke transkrip video apa pun langsung di halaman tontonan.
