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HVS Seminar: Hotel Investment and the Role of Private Equity, April 2023

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good morning ladies and gentlemen thank

you for taking the time this morning to

join us for what should be a fascinating

insight into the hotel sector and its

relationship with private equity

we have some exceptional speakers who no

doubt bring this subject well into life

over the next hour and a half

um private Equity has changed and

influenced the industry in quite a major

way over the last two last two decades

hotels responded particularly well I

think it's fair to say to the challenges

presented by the pandemic

since 2020 and yet and last year we saw

some encouraging signs of How It's

returning to strength however the

industry does still face many challenges

uh still in terms of costs inflation

energy Staffing all across the world so

how is this influencing investment opportunities

opportunities

we ask how does Private Equity still

view the sector as we now look forward

to obviously in the next the rest of the decade

decade

there are many good signs two as many as

many countries now today possess

developed sophisticated plans for

tourism growth which will naturally

attract investment

France alone has a plan to increase its

numbers of Tourism by over 25 percent by 2026.

2026.

investors are looking for an opportunity

so we ask what is what is private

last year the view was a private Equity

had rediscovered its taste for hotels

and and actually the number of do

activity had naturally increased now

however what's the long-term Outlook now

on how's it looked today

certainly investors are looking for

strong data from the industry plus

focusing far more intently upon ESG

strategies and this has been one of the

major changes in the last couple of

years has this become a central piece of

educator when it comes to investment

all questions to be answered over the

next hour and a half

so firstly let's just ask some poll

questions of you um so we just get a

feel for what's going on Izzy can I ask

if you could bring up the poor questions foreign

now we have three questions and you'll

need to scroll down for the final one I

believe uh question one do you expect

investment in hotels in the next 12

months to change in volume by

which type of hotels will investors seek

to acquire the most in the next 12 months

and that was interesting how that's

changed over the last few years

and the final question what main reason

will discourage investors from acquiring

or investing in hotels in the next 12 months

it'll be interested in your thoughts on that

so do you expect investment in hotels

the next 12 months to change in volume

I think grow by 10 or more seems the 41 percent

percent

I'll answering that's the case and 34

grew by five percent that's interesting

um which type of hotels will investors

seek to acquire the most in the next 12 months

months

see Center full service 36 Resort

Leisure 41 and I think that's one of the

big changes we've seen in the last 18

months isn't it

and what main reason will discourage

investors from acquiring or investing in

hotels in the next 12 months 49 the

availability of debt Finance which is

obviously one of the key discussions

going around to the industry at this

moment in time and 22 obviously

concerned about Rising inflation and

operating costs

thank you very much very interesting

thank you for that

um please use the chat at the bottom of

the screens to ask questions

um again we'll try we'll try to make

sure all your questions get answered uh

wherever in this session or after the

session so if your question doesn't get

asked during a session or answered

during the session then we will write to

you and actually try to answer the

question as well so rest assured on that

but please feel free to use the chat and

ask any questions as we go and we hope

you enjoy the next the rest of the session

session

um first Speaker may I introduce Graham

Smith managing director of Alex Partners

to the screen good morning Graham

I'll hand over to you good luck thanks

Chris appreciate that and welcome

everybody let me just uh

great hopefully everybody can see that

so good morning everybody

um my name's Graeme Smith uh I'm uh

partner managing director at Alex

Partners I specialize in providing

corporate finance and restructuring

advice across the travel hospitality and

Leisure industry and I've worked a lot

in the hotel uh sector over the last uh

10 to 12 years

so I'm going to provide a perspective on

private equity in the hotel industry and

more the background uh around that to

feed into then Charles human from HBS

who's going to continue that topic

so in my presentation today

what I'm going to cover is the backdrop

in terms of the funds raised by private

Equity more generally and how that's

feeding through into deal activity

look at some of the key issues that

private Equity are considering in the

sector right now and also some of the

the positive considerations that are

feeding into those decisions as well

uh then look at a little comparison

between the performance

um in equity values for for the hotel

industry relative to General real estate

then I'm going to look at actually what

lessons can we learn from how the market

recovered from the credit crunch the

great financial crisis back in 2012

onwards and what we might learn from

that in terms of what will happen next

so first of all what it's clear when we

look at the data certainly across the US

and also Europe in terms of the funds

raised we hear a lot about this dry

powder and we can see as we look at the

chart here which looks as funds raised

initially across real estate private

Equity a very consistent level of

capital being raised for investment but

then once you add on top of that then

the broader private Equity industry we

can see that you know these are

significant sums that have been raised

consistently over the last five years

ready to be invested in the sector and

the industry more broadly

um what we also looked at is actually

what's happened to the number of funds

um that are being raised by private

equity and of course this is across the

whole industry rather than simply hotels

but the fund count so the number of

funds that have been raising money has

dropped in recent times but the funds

raised have remained broadly the same

which just goes to show the the scale of

funds uh is increasing so the dominance

of the larger funds being successful

they're raising capital

and what we can see is this is

absolutely flowed through into broad

deal activity again across USA and Europe

Europe

and we can see as we recover from the

pandemic then actually there was this

Rush of M A activity through 2021 which

continued into 2022 once you've taken

into account the forecast deals towards

the end of the year

but what we would note from this is that

actually within 2022

this is really a game of two halves and

we saw the activity

really dropped off as we went into the

second half of 2022 and this really

being driven by the economic uncertainty

which arose at that time and we saw a

number of triggers around that so both

from an operational perspective with

increasing energy costs

the availability and cost of people

General inflation and the cost of living crisis

crisis

but of course what's incredibly

important for the hotel industry is an

operational real estate sector

is that the step up in the increase in

cost of debt Finance was significant and

Rapid over the second half of 2022 and

also that fed through into actually just

a simple availability of debt Finance uh

in it is there to support deals

so as we got towards the end of the year

what we really saw was in the second

half then deals that were getting

completed were generally those which

were well progressed already

and we saw this predominance of of wait

and see uh becoming almost if you like

kind of accepted wisdom as we came

towards the end of the year what we also

saw when we look at private equity and

more of the hedge fund money

um then it

it pivoted into more liquid Investments

whether it's the public markets or

traded credit because that's where

people could see really uh deep value in

those trades but also the ability of

them being liquid to be able to trade in

and out of those when when the profit

so if we go through to the position that

we have today there are a number of key

issues that private Equity are focused

on which are are well known but I think

the the continued

um uh high level of the energy costs

that businesses are facing we are seeing

of reduction in the wholesale prices but

um it's not feeding through quite as

quickly into the um the cost that

operators are having to pay in their

their energy bills which remains have

been elevated level we're seeing that

continued input cost inflation uh both

in operations but I think also

importantly in developments so a lot of

Hotel development based on uh

assumptions which happened a developed

pre-pandemic I think they're now having

to be readjusted in terms of the the

cost of development and the the

completion of those and whether that

still works in a returns perspective

Staffing continues to be a challenge

we've seen the increase in staff costs

as the uh national minimum living wage

increase again at the start of the new

tax year I think availability challenges have

have

um become less acute but it's still very difficult

difficult

we've also heard in the intro from from

Chris around the investment needs that

are there in relation to ESG and the

environmental regulations so that's a an

increasing Focus uh when looking at

hotel projects we talked about the cost

of Finance increasing but also really

the availability of executable Fields

just general volumes but also those

which can be transacted where we get

that match up between buyer and seller

price expectations

but I will point to a number of positive

considerations that are really being

experienced by the hotel industry and

particularly relative to broader real

estate so

the yield management the daily pricing

of rooms that hotels are able to

influence we've absolutely seen that

um be a positive for the industry is

being able to

deal with and offset the input cost

inflation that has been felt and the

demand actually for travel particularly

Leisure and also domestic corporate has

rebounded incredibly strongly so hotels

have been able to significantly increase

rates we're yet to see the full

reopening of all the long-haul routes in

particular China so that's still to come

in terms of potential increase of demand

in the future

um also given the disruption in the

market we see the ability for actually

the strength in in operations so good

managers being able to differentiate

themselves in hotel performance because

of the operational disruption that's

being experienced

there is this need for investment to

drive development uh the ESG investment

that's required but also to invest in

technology to keep Pace with what

customers are expecting so from a

private Equity perspective with the dry

powder that's been raised that we've

talked about already I think that

combines to create some

um uh some situations in the market

which are then positive for private

Equity investment and interestingly what

we've looked at is well how have hotels

performed relative to Broad real estate

on the equity market so this is a chart

looking at equity share price

performance of a basket of UK Hotel

listed companies and comparing that to

the UK ftse 350 real estate index going

back to July 2022 when this disruption

in the financing markets and inflation

really started to take hold and what we

can see from that presentation is that the

the

share prices of the UK Hotel basket has

outperformed broader real estate by 35

percentage points over that period so I

think this talks to the ability of

hotels to be able to offset and deal

with the inflationary challenges

relative to perhaps real estate which

has its um RPI links rents but take

so we look back in terms of actually

what how did the hotel Market react and

respond after the credit crunch

we've got a chart here which sort of

illustrates how broadly values were covered

covered

um post 2012 and some of the phases that

the market went through

first of all we had the initial crisis

phase which everybody will experienced

from from 2008 onwards but as we emerge

from that we saw an initial period of

deleveraging where lots of MPL sales

and more of the the investors who are

comfortable dealing with those complex situations

situations

conducting those transactions

particularly as I say relating to the

deleveraging from the banks

we then went through an asset management

phase where after the assets are

transferred into private Equity

ownership then actually a transition

into particular funds that were focused

more on that kind of operational

performance Improvement maybe dealing

with some of those issues which had

built up through the crisis

and then moving into what we've termed

more of the institutional phase so after

that initial turnaround has been

implementing we're getting more into a

business as usual

um situation and transitioning to more

institutional private equity and then

the final phases we felt were running

through uh towards the end of 2019 which

is more about financial structuring what

are the different opportunities in terms

of financial instruments to reduce cost

of capital to ensure that with the

valuations and how they've improved you

can still get the right return for the

investors in those deals so a few

different phases and I think what's

going to be interesting is well as we

have deals restart

what type of deals what style of deal

will they be foreign

so what we're seeing as to where we are

right now is the deal pipeline is

starting to grow there's significant dry

powder to be invested I think we've seen

a subsiding of that real volatility

certainly from an operational

perspective in a financing perspective

and all of that going towards making it

possible to look at deals again and

start to see that unlock a couple of

things I think will be important for

that first of all I think we have still

got this position of buyer and seller

value expectations and from the sell

side you know we've seen that impact on

profitability and we've seen that impact

on the cost of Finance then you know

views of how that impacts on on value

but also I think one of the key

catalysts that might see do activity

pick up is that we have got a wave of

debt maturities that are coming up and

with the increased cost of Finance where

profitability might be does that create

a funding Gap that needs to be met that

might trigger either refinancings or

possibly even asset transactions themselves

themselves

so I think in terms of what what's next

then I think it's important that

actually the deal types will be very

situation specific because of the

disruption that the market has seen but

we think thinking back to that recovery

from the the GFC three types of deals

like well come to the four over the next

12 months or so

first of all we do expect to see some de-leveraging

de-leveraging

um not significant npl sales as we saw

out of the credit crisis but I think

some some banks some lenders may be

looking to reduce overall exposure to

the sector through refinancing

um and and possibly asset sales

I think more of that asset management

style deal where there's a need for

Capital and perhaps enhanced more

experienced operational input to deal

with some of that

um operational disruption to recover

value and then also looking at some

Financial structuring style uh

transactions where you've got a good

business but the balance sheet isn't

quite right for the current levels of

performance maybe there's a need to plug

a funding gap or provide financing to

bridge to that recovery or also fund

growth in the business itself so I think

the Catalyst might be uncertain as to

what really kick-starts deal activity

but I think we've seen in previous

recoveries that actually was the first

deal happens then you typically see a

number of deals start to flow from that

so hopefully that's provided everybody

with a bit of a a backdrop in terms of

what we're seeing

um in the market and um look forward to

Graham coming back yeah I'm back on that

um a couple of questions uh from the

audience well firstly there's a question

about that someone under notes that domestic

domestic

Blue Collar travel is obviously

increasing is it really true though in

relation to White Collar travel

yeah certainly from the conversations we

have with with operators across the

market then um yeah they are seeing a

return of uh of White Collar travel some

of it is

um is a little different it may not

quite be the frequency that it was

before but I think companies are really

encouraging teams to get back together

to meet in person or perhaps seeing an

increase in uh the volume of smaller

meetings rather than perhaps the larger

set piece events

um but no I think there is that there is

a recovery uh in that and it certainly

seems quite broad-based across the

country certainly from the UK perspective

perspective

thank you and the next question is which

companies are included in the UK Hotel basket

basket

uh yeah so this looks at um pphe it

looks at IHG and it looks at Whitbread

great thank you and your outlook going

forward how do you feel positive I mean

there's obviously been a mix of the last

six months what do you view now

I think that there is um let's say one

of the reasons why we put the comparison

up to broader real estate is I think

there's been a um a bit of a tendency to

try and uh look at overall impacts on on

all real estate all operational real

estate and um I think what has struck us

certainly has been you know the ability

of of hotels for offset those

inflationary pressures through pricing

and there's also been a benefit in terms

of some Supply coming out of the

industry particularly with some of the

government contracts

um and all that has meant

um that for the industry itself there's

a there's a greater match of supply and

demand which is given some of the

pricing pressure uh pricing strength to

the the hotel operators

all right Graham thank you very much

that was excellent thank you very much

for your time this morning

um now can I invite Charles human from

htts to come and join us

Charles good morning and I'll pass over

to you thank you Chris good morning everyone

everyone

um I think is he's got my slide so if

so what I'm going to do is just take a

few minutes to run through some Trends

in private Equity investment in European

hotels both fast and present ready to

follow on from what Graham has said if

so this looks back over the last uh 20

odd years and shows uh the level of

private Equity investment in in European

hotels it wasn't really until the

mid-2000s that that private Equity

really established themselves as as

players prior to that there had been

some sort of opportunity funds and and

so-called vulture funds but it wasn't

really until 2004 2005 things really

took off and since then average volume

uh of investment by private Equity Funds

in European hotels has been 2.5 billion

oh yeah and that that compares to Total

average annual volume of just under 14

billion so it's about 18 of total volume

which possibly sounds low given given

the importance of your push on on

private Equity Funds uh there have been

some big highs in those years so 2007

big year but possibly not the wisest of

move given given what was to come

shortly afterwards and then big

investments in 2014 and 15 uh

principally in some large portfolios

that had been uh restructured

um following the the GFC and then more

moderate levels of investment

generally the pre the private Equity

Farms want scale and they particularly

like platforms so 70 since 2017 of

Acquisitions have been in in portfolios

the average deal size has been about 120

million and The Sweet Spot so 70 of

deals have been within the 45 million to

170 million range very little private

Equity investment in smaller deals

next slide

so if total total portfolio transaction

since 2004 25 have been from PE funds

and over the same time they've they've

invested in 12 of single assets

next slide

so this this shows

um average so it shows annual PE

investment into European hotels compared

to other investors so other investors

include the likes of the institutions

the REITs the family offices

um Hotel investment companies and

operators who are I think it's fair to

say typically have lower uh lower cost

of capital long-term holders uh compared

to the PE funds who are looking more

opportunistically more short term and

what's interesting here is that

Divergence that really started from 2015-16

2015-16

where other types of investors uh

increased proportionally their their

investment hotels and and lower activity

relatively speaking from the PE firms

and what this is really showing is PE

funds selling to other lower cost of

capital investors and the PE funds

finding it increasingly difficult to

compete against other investors who with

low at lower cost of capital so the

likes of the listed real estate

companies around town pandoks and so

forth cavivio access some of the big

longer term investors with with lower

next slide so over the last five years

70 of PE Acquisitions have have come

from uh 10

10p funds listed here pretty much all

all household names Blackstone obviously

uh at the biggest Brookfield also very

significant Investments but 70 coming

from these These funds

next slide

so the PE funds have been a very active

Sellers as well as buyers so it's it's

almost a mirror image here of of of

purchases and sales and it reflects the

short-term the intended short-term

nature of of private Equity investment

so 48 billion has cumulatively been

acquired over this period and 39 billion

in sales a slight lag effect but

um so very very very strong on on both

and what we've seen I think private

Equity Funds will typically say that

they look buying with a without with an

intended holding period of somewhere

between three and five years and more

hoping for three rather than five or

even shorter

and we've seen those holding periods

reduce over time so what this chart

shows is in in a particular year so if

you take

um to 2005 for instance of the

Acquisitions made in that year the

average whole period has been 11 years

reducing down to 2014 of three years so

uh this this shows primarily the impact

of the global financial crisis where PE

funds had bought prior to that and then

had to hold on to achieve that pricing

targets and couldn't sell at a period of

low values and as as values of recovers

in the market has has improved holding

periods have become shorter and shorter

but it's likely that that's now going to

rise with the impact of covid and and

the issues that we're facing now so we

will almost certainly CPE funds holding

on for longer than it originally intended

so it's interesting to see that hotels

are one of three uh sectors within real

estate where the allocation of PE funds

has increased since pre-pandemic so

Logistics is one hotel Hospitality the

other and Healthcare and office is very

marginally but you know not surprisingly

declines in retail

um you know against backdrops of

uncertainty in other sectors so it's

certainly on a relative basis PE funds

view hospitality and hotels as being um

areas of opportunity both short and and

long term foreign

UK has been a big Focus but what we've

seen more recently is is more focused on

Mediterranean markets Resort markets

Spain has been a big Focus

um increasingly Italy and there's been

so those are the markets that have seen

most activity over the last five years

UK was 2022 UK was almost more active in

the market with a couple of large

portfolio Acquisitions very low levels

of investment into

Germany and and particularly low into

and what we see in Instagram touched on

this what we've seen really is since the

middle of last year when interest rates

started to rise we've seen a pretty

strong slowdown in private private

Equity investment uh into hotels more

challenging times

um harder to harder to leverage which is

which is pretty crucial to up to a pu

fund story uh a more expensive cost of

debt lower level levels of debt

available so since July 2022 there's

been around 400 million euros of private

Equity investment into hotels and that

that compares to 10 billion from other

tax investors so it's a fraction of

investment total investment into the market

market

in year to date 2023 there's been 150

million invested compared to 3 billion

from from others so only five percent of

total in total uh total investment into

hotels you know what this does show is

that the market is by no means at a

standstill and that there is transact

transaction activity but it's not really

um where have they been buying more

recently it's a mix Belgium Spain uh and

and various you know deals in Germany

France and Sweden who's who's been

active you could see here so lone star

sonawag Catman uh Apollo have all been

active but relatively low levels of

it's so it's a tough time for for

private Equity Funds to to make

Acquisitions at the moment there's

there's low levels of debt available the

cost of that that is significantly

higher and that we haven't yet really

seen a movements in in pricing uh from

from sellers so the private Equity Funds

are really biting their time waiting for

either reduced reduced values or

improved debt markets

um and what what they have become is

more active as as uh as debt players

with with debt funds it's an it's a it's

a good Market To Be A lender in many

ways and and I think many are more

focused on that side of their business

rather than the equity side

we are seeing signs of of sellers

reducing pricing expectations to get

deals across the line

um the the the increasing debt

maturities are likely to present

opportunities and activity this this is

a significant challenge that that the

market will face over the coming 12

months and that we think will almost

certainly lead to more activity

probably lower values to be expected and

more more more activity for the private

Equity Funds

so I hope that's helpful that's um just

Joe that was great thank you very much

great presentation really interesting uh

a few questions for you from the

audience firstly what do you believe is

the reason for the little private Equity

I I think um

I mean there was going back 10 years or

more I think um

I think it's a number of factors one is

a lot of hotels they're released and

that's not really a model the private

Equity Funds follow they want to take

operating risk so there's less

opportunity from from that point of view

and I think they've just found better

value it's been a very low yielding

Market driven by very low interest rates

it's uh it it's a it's a low yielding

Market with with with kind of relatively

stable growth and better opportunities

in the more uh unexploited markets

particularly of southern Europe

I mean it's interesting to me it's

interesting how your presentation

obviously mirrored grams in lots of ways

what's your outlook going forward can I ask

is going to be quite a tough year all

round we we are seeing uh although

um inflationary pressures look like

they're going to ease off it's a pretty

tough time for hotels at the moment Top

Line is is holding up more or less it

seems but

margins are being squeezed uh that

maturities are are a big issue so we

think it's going to be

pretty tough time to be honest and we

it's it's hard to imagine the values are

going to do anything other than

decline uh to some extent over the next

next few months so we we expect to see

activity pick up towards the latter part

of the year but not really in Earnest until

until

uh 2024 probably

okay that's great Charles thank you very

much now just a favor from you there's a

number of questions on the on the Q a

could you just take a few minutes to

answer them

after the presentations that would be

very kind very pleasure yeah that'd be

very nice of them

um thank you for that great presentation

as I said now can I introduce Russell

cat chair chair of HCS London to join us

um if I can invite my colleagues on the

panel to join us on screen as well that

will be great we've got uh a wonderful a

wonderful and experienced panel uh of

people who know everything that uh is to

be known and will do their best to

answer both my questions and yours and

and I do stress uh the desire that we

should answer questions from our

distinguished audiences uh as uh you

have already started putting questions

in the Q a we'll try and answer as many

of them as we can

um your questions matter more than the

ones that I've prepared so please make

sure that we get the opportunity to deal

with the hot buttons that you have so a welcome

welcome

um to these six distinguished experts

um and I hold their opinions in in

extremely high regards so four come from

the world of private Equity young Willem

Tina Sabine press we have a lender

Louise and a lawyer James taboo so

um whatever we say uh James will pick up

the pieces afterwards and make sure we

don't get sued and uh hopefully we'll

have a lot of interest uh in what you

have all got to say now we all saw at

the very beginning of the session that

there were three polling questions

um so I'd like you all uh very briefly

just to tell me

um how you would have replied to each of

them so the first one was do you expect

investment in hotels in the next 12

months to change in volume okay so was

it grown by 10 or more grain by five

percent which seemed to be between the

two of them everybody expects things to

grow very little remaining the same

hardly anybody expects it to decline so

um just very quickly Louise what what's

what's your view on that question 10

Central North Bend Center more press

growth 10 or more

yeah and will have any any difference no

I think

okay Sabine

ten percent or more same thing and James

you're not going to disagree with all of

these wonderful people are you only

slightly more pessimistic because I

think there are two things number one

it's about finding the opportunities as

we're seeing at the moment it's very

hard for people to secure opportunities

because they're just not coming to

Market I I guess you've got a question

that's relative to the last six months

which has been very quiet as well but

yeah he's gonna be challenged to find

deals okay and if people are going doing uh

uh require

require

um and given what Charles and Graham

have been saying maybe maybe not

um what are they going to acquire most

is it going to be City Center conference

Suburban limited service or Resorts you

saw what the answer was uh Tina what

what what's your what's your plug

I suppose I don't really like to pick a

segment because I think it's quite

dependent on Market opportunities

um but I suspect people will continue to

be investing in good markets so City

centers with strong demand

um as well as Leisure Resorts

um before us personally we look much

more around what is the operational play

what is the platform growth trajectory

and what is the management team like and Sabine

Sabine

yeah I can only like actually Tina

because it's a case by case isn't it

right so what we like is certainly we

like to go into markets where we see you

know kind of deep

um kind of liquidity in markets I mean

we have we have to opinion it's really

good to know at the price level you're

going in but if you want to get out you

should be able to so you don't want to

find yourself in a market that doesn't

provide you for those opportunities and

other than that certainly

um we do like for a number of reasons

more the kind of urban

um kind of hotels simply because there

is also always a live after in case of

something you decide to change usage

which is obviously some of the areas

that our development team are quite well

reversed in so uh but but we certainly

agree that there's lots of opportunities

as well in Leisure currently and I think

this has been proven as well by the

statistics we saw early on from uh hvs

as well lovely lovely James quick one

from you I think it's going to be your

European leisure European Legend

uh anything really where are we gonna

have some value at so you know uh City

Center Resort airport locations but uh

anything where we can you know do

something with cat packs you know

rebranding converting management

contracts into franchises to some cost

cutting so anything value out really

wonderful Chris

I agree with all these guys is stay

racist everybody's in violent agreement

with each other the one thing that I the

one thing that I will pick up on there

is I think it's interesting that zero

people said mice and Conference hotels

yeah and if everyone's flocking to the

key things the value is going to go up

right and the contrarian play is to go

into my son conference

um talking our own book slightly but

what we're seeing across our devere

portfolio is

the meetings and event space is holding

up uh a lot of the kind of meetings that

are happening are

uh you know people are Keen to get their

teams back together they're not doing

that in their offices they're doing that offside

offside

um yeah there's still a lot of

regulatory training and so yeah again

it's just interesting to see people's

perception of that market as the worst

one to invest in which creates an

opportunity for people to invest in it

okay so Louise bring up the rear on this one

one

well obviously I'm coming at it from the

different angles so for me it's just

Center towels because they're the most

stable throughout the various Cycles

um so yes I accept the opportunities for

private Equity will be elsewhere

wonderful okay and the final question we

asked and and then I'm going to move off

this so a very quick answer

um the main reason that's going to

discourage investors from acquiring or

investing in hotels in the next 12 months

months

um most people seem to feel that the

availability of debt Finance

um was going to be the main one and

concerns about Rising inflation need to

invest in capex uh lack of available

Supply and then the geopolitical stuff

and bid asked of it very very little

traction on that one so Louise it's all

down to you is it uh ability of debt

Finance is that that going to be uh the

biggest block um

potentially I mean debt finances there

and what we have seen is new engines

come into the financing Market

unfortunately the debt quantums that

people used to receiving are curtailed

and uh there's nothing that we can do

about that it is a symptom of the

increased interest costs and assets can

only accommodate so much debt

um so definitely the amount of debt that

you can put out on an asset is lower than

than

um what you are originally requested for

uh any of the panel want to disagree or

or enhance on that particular one Chris

are you

um I guess it's um I guess the biggest

thing is the lack of available assets

that are on the market

um and I guess if there as Louisa says

right there is debt there is just how

much and that just goes to pricing so

it's the bid ask spread and the

available to your kid on the market

that's probably the biggest Factor

anything different

oh I think that's I mean I'm still

worried about some of the recovery

particularly in Germany uh the ukai

seems I mean including the regional UK

but London obviously done really well

but if the Rich has done pretty well in

terms of recovery of the occupancy and

the average program is up quite a bit

but there are some Pockets where the

recovery is not being that strong so I'm

still quite worried about that and how

that's going to pan out so Germany

Austria Switzerland some pockets in the Netherlands

Netherlands

some some pockets in Central Europe

where your expenses are not recovered at

all close to 2019 numbers and the

average room rates are also hoovering

four years later still around the 2019

number so with significant amount of

inflation pressure in all these countries

countries

okay all right Sabine yeah any view that

challenges anything that's been said

already no I think um you know I I agree

again with what my panelists said I do

believe as well that I think the

operational side to hospitality is still

something that some parties are shying

away from uh so I think that and simply

because as you all know the you know

significantly increased uh kind of costs

that come along with Labor uh the

ability to find labor and to retain kind

of stuff is obviously is it's not a

trivial exercise

um I do want to say though that some

institutional investors and you know we

all know I guess you know some of the

the likes that already started to to to

form a firmer viewers starting now to

come into the hospitality space and I

think this is an interesting Trend to

see so these are people who are not

necessarily running after value at

opportunistic returns but they're happy

with core Plus and they are you know

Capital traditionally would have not

certainly not entered Hospitality so my

mind's a sign that there is a certain

level of appreciation that if you get

your head around the operations there's

indeed in asset class and mechanism in

driving Alpha returns thanks Tina

yeah sure um you know as you guys know

um we've been a private Equity Fund

that's only invested in travel measure

for the last three decades so we don't

really rotate into other asset classes

and I think um as opposed to shying away

from operational lovers we see that as

our way to have a Competitive Edge and

to create Alpha and to beat inflation

blood pressures right um I think the

hotel sector outperformed

um CPI during the last High inflation

period in the U.S in the 70s by one and

a half times more broadly and two times

for the resort sector

um that you know I think that that's a

really good Trend and for this asset

class as we enter into this High

inflationary period

um and that operational level I suppose

is where we still see opportunity

frankly in Europe because there's still

a lot of family-owned businesses there's

still a lot of under managed under

um capitalized and

um a lot of capex that you can spend to

drive that Alpha

um that's what we're hopeful to find

some opportunities to by some of the

other Market challenges lovely and last

[Music]

sorry Russell just uh I'm meeting myself

um I

I think it's going to be an interesting

uh challenge around

um where the best place to investors so

um I agree with Tina in terms of

um for them for the equity who funding

on the sector will be easier for them to

go forward

okay so let's uh let's move to a few

questions that I prepared and I'll I'll

start to look at what's in the Q a and

and see if there's something there that

we can bring out as well but just kick

us off if you don't mind

um I want one particular uh aspect of

the hotel sector from each of you what

excites you most

having a full set of 12-month trading

record that I can actually look back and

make some assumptions again I think

after three years various different

closures and disruptions just the return

to normalcy is exciting so Louise yearns

for a 12 months p l that doesn't have

any excuses uh Chris what's yours what

excites you know I I think what was it

getting us most excited at the moment is

kind of picking up Graham slides around

where we're right in the cycle and the

kind of probably the deleveraging that

needs to happen

um and the opportunity that creates for

well capitalized private Equity right uh

for a long time it's been very we've

been competing with a lot of lower cost

capital and I think now there's

opportunity to really kind of

differentiate and for us to kind of push

up the risk curve and um do some deals

that other guys are a bit

um can't find a bit taxing or get a bit

of indigestion over which for the last

kind of four or five years or so cover

this excluded was um it was just you

know the guy that paid the highest price

one okay Tina were you the paying the

um but uh I guess I suppose for us what

we're really excited is we've spent the

past few years investing in in growth

platforms and and now we have a strategy

either in City Center Europe

um in mid-scale Regional UK and boutique

UK and boutique

um pan Europe and we believe that those

platforms can really go after their

acquisition strategy and their growth

strategy particularly as debt financing

and pressures come in and hit individual

owners those are probably assets we

wouldn't acquire as a private Equity

Fund on a standalone basis but these

platforms these management teams are

very well positioned to take advantage

of those opportunities in the coming

months okay yeah young Willem we've

heard what's not exciting you what is

exciting uh anything minus really kind

of again going back to the value add so

we're going to reposition and Rebrand

anything else and and and more activity

coming out and more assets being put on

the market I think is really gonna

excite a lot of people to go back into

Hotel investment because there was a lot

of competition uh for quite cheap money

for quite a long period of time and I

think also not only the refinance is

going to go and create some

opportunities and people deleveraging

but also I think the redemptions with

the larger institutions

could also result in some more kind of

hotels being put on the market

Sabine are you in line with that what's

particularly exciting you yeah I simply

like the fact that we now seem to have

arrived at a point whereby the overall

outlook for the industry is actually

quite positive right uh there is a a a

sense of you know things kind of ramping

up again and we already alluded as well

to the point where we are in the cycle

perspective and yet at the same time um

if you look at it's true some of the

ownership of the assets you know some of

the leverage levels that some of these

Hotel owners currently are confronted

with and the resulting interest costs

are just not sustainable so I guess for

us that trades opportunity and then also

along the lines of what Diane William

said absolutely the value adds because

there was a long time whereby people

call themselves you know doing value-add

by basically just ramping up the lcv to

75 it was possible because you know

money didn't cost a lot now it's really

from our perspective Back to Basics and

as we have the as I mentioned

development for kids in-house and also

the day-to-day operations of assets you

don't have to go out and ask anybody

else to do it for us I think we have

well positioned to to hopefully Harvest

on some of those opportunities

thank you finally James

um you know what is particularly

exciting either you or your clients at

the moment I I think um I mean it's a

number of things but firstly the

potential of the Far East and tourist

return I mean London and uh Edinburgh

have performed extremely well uh without

that and they're all coming back I think

just touch on interest rates I I think

clearly the opportunities this year are

going to arise a result of that

refinancing War and the higher interest

rate so that is going to force people to

sell assets it's going to fall through

some some Innovative funding structures

as well which um for the private

actually on their debt side and we're

starting to see those sort of whole debt

solutions coming through to address the

funding shortfalls that are coming up

okay and just starting with you and uh

just looking at the other side of the

coin at what aspect is causing you

particular concern just one aspect each

go back

starting with me I I think the big

question is point in touch and only the

that bid ass Gap and how long it's going

to take for it to compress because

things will only start moving again once

sellers and buyers are in the same place

on price and then they're not there at

the moment and Louise as the lender Xbox

be interest cost movements and our

assumptions around them press

press

um Jan Williams point about how long

that rev part kind of takes to recover

where it has recovered how how long it

can hold up

versus how far is going to come back

and Tina

I think all the macro factors have been

mentioned so I'll say one of the things

that we talk a lot about as a forum

right now across our portfolio company

actually is cyber security and so that's

um we think that that is something that

all our portfolio companies all the

operators really need to get up to speed

on as fast as possible but frankly it's

very hard to catch up to these hackers

and what um what's being out there in

terms of attacking these systems so that

keeps us up at night more than perhaps

in the macro trends that you can manage

to recycle

good to know Sabine

yeah I uh believe that the areas where

we have some level of control on I think

we feel a bit more comfortable you know

such as you know operating models and

kind of making sure you drive

efficiencies and all the rest of it so

what what keeps me up at night is in the

things that we have very little control

on them which are you know interest rate

movements which are indeed kind of

geopolitical tensions

um Energy prices and are like um having

said that the let's say is apparently

now coming down quite nicely but these

are so it's it's it's the big pictures

where as I said you know as a you know

project replay you're very little I

guess influence on and yet it will have

significant implications on the

performance of your of your investment

the problem with coming last of a group

of six John William is that everybody

else has chosen the one that you

particularly wanted to mention but at

what aspect is causing you particular

concern at the moment I think that one

thing is on the investment side I'm

quite worried about how we're going to

find the middle ground to get a price

agreed so obviously you're you know your

returns are going to be measured by how

much Finance you can put on it and

that's gone down and the cost of the

financing all the PE guys are all

levered and ultimately that means that

your own level returns need to go up

or your price need to run down and I

think if you haven't met that middle

ground yet clearly because you know

there's obviously there are really

embarrassments that really tell us

compared to the transactions are done so

until that happens

then it's going to be quite tough to to

get any transactions done

all right so I'm going to move on to the

role of private equity and the hotel

investment Arena because we've got some

great expertise on the panel today

um and I'm gonna give you each the

opportunity to answer a particular

question that uh that I've identified

that I'd like you to concentrate on Zach

Chris I'm going to start with you how

can the hotel sector make the best use

of PE funding

got it uh okay so I think it's

well as in how do PE when P buying into

New Opportunities or kind of guys

looking to fundraise or either or both

either well but don't take a long time

over answering cool well so I guess

there's you know as um kind of uh

Charles mentioned earlier a lot of our

business businesses have been growing

the credit side of their businesses so

us Blackstone Apollo KSL do it as well

right actually providing uh senior loans

and mass financing to existing platform businesses

businesses

um that's definitely an area that um

Louise will see you know increased

competition in right versus your

traditional lending sources and then on

the on the acquisition size

um it's the same themes we've been

talking about it's really where we're

focused is the value add

um taking something but there's probably

either a broken balance sheet or broken

operations and then you know to using

our balance sheet and our expertise

um to reposition that asset you know

that's really the focus

okay and Louise how much interference

should a funder have on a hotel's

day-to-day operations

well ideally no no I mean we're

financing specialists in what they do

um they should know more than us about

the business that they're operating

obviously unfortunately there are times

where we have to sit together and buy

into a turnaround plan but we've

definitely seen that a lot over the last

three years

um but the relationship should be strong

enough that we're we are buying into a

valid business plan that a specialist

has put together

okay now Tina you've said that you

concentrate only on hotels so um you

don't have experience of uh other

sectors to draw on but maybe Sabine can

answer the question is too what your

experience of other sectors uh can bring

to the table to improve uh what PE can

bring to the hotel sector

sure I think so from our side having yes

the spike I guess in Hospitality but

also you know having invested developed

and operated other asset classes such as

retail or commercial and resi helps us

to look at an asset for what it is which

is a brick and mortar in a certain

location and sometimes you just need to

be able to say maybe we want to you know

increase the room count but maybe

sometimes the answer is guess what guys

we probably decreased the room count or

we take out the conference facility so

we add a different usage downstairs or

do we think about branded residencies uh

you know how what else can we do in a

parking lot so I think by by having

again the ability to look at an

opportunity not just Through The Eyes of

a hotel investor but generally as a real

estate investor and that allows us to

really identify what's the best use of

this as I said brick and mortar in that location

location

um can I give you specific examples no

because it really afterwards is a

case-by-case but I think that itself

already I hope at least allows for us to

to maximize returns and as I mentioned

as well that's why we do like Urban

locations quite a bit because it always

allows to have or to solve if we wanted

to for different usages as well

this is just one point of clarification

we um we don't do office or commercial

real estate but we're a private Equity

Fund that use broader travel and Leisure

right so we'll do Fitness we'll do

membership businesses golf and country

clubs and um and ski resorts and we I do

think that those

um operational best practices and

toolkits and Trends have a lot of

interesting corollaries with the hotel

sector we try to make sure that all the

management teams have that knowledge

base and best practice sharing wonderful

wonderful

um how can private Equity add the most

um I think they're really you know

buying undervalued Under capex stock and

optimizing some of the operating

structures particularly converting

management contacts into franchise would

seem to be a trend tranches in the way

the way to go so there's a lot of a lot

of stuff to be done there

I think that seemed to be you know

branding clearly is another option okay

I'll

up to you guys but James you can have

first dibs

um what aspects of Hotel funding do you

think that private Equity is mostly

going to focus on in the coming uh 12

months or so you know are we going to be

focused on the traditional existing

hotels uh is it going to be providing

junior or mazdaq uh and how uh you know

does that compare with you know the

equity side are you only looking at

branded will you look at the independent

leases versus freeholds and so forth and

what are you not going to focus on you

know are you going to focus on uh

everything other than you development

for example in fact James from your

experiences to what your clients are

looking at where do you think that

answer is yeah I I guess if you look at

it in the rising market which we've had

up until summer last year it was quite

easy to make investments yes you could

devalue ads but you could make your

returns by virtue in some ways the price

is rising I think the suspicion must be

over the next two to three years that's

going to be very hard to achieve so I

think for investors be the private actor

or anything else it's about how do I

take an asset and add value I think one

of the things we haven't talked about

and quite interesting and you know you

invest in one of them

um is things like apart hotels service

department hotel and co-living those

kind of sectors that are a bit new and a

bit different I think where people may

say well that's where the opportunities

here to take something totally different

roll it out and do something different

with it rather than traditionally investing in City Center Hiltons and

investing in City Center Hiltons and Marriotts and where you've got a much

Marriotts and where you've got a much more defined asset I think you people

more defined asset I think you people are going to have to be inventive as to

are going to have to be inventive as to how they get the returns of their irr

how they get the returns of their irr target Returns on Capital One Tina

target Returns on Capital One Tina um it's a question I'd say in terms of

um it's a question I'd say in terms of the cap stack first you're gonna we're

the cap stack first you're gonna we're already seeing in the US at least our

already seeing in the US at least our debt funds being quite active

debt funds being quite active um I think when you're kind of in this

um I think when you're kind of in this part of the cycle the dislocation first

part of the cycle the dislocation first comes for the the credit funds and

comes for the the credit funds and alternative lenders um and so they're

alternative lenders um and so they're quite active we're excited about that

quite active we're excited about that opportunity certainly from the equity

opportunity certainly from the equity perspective we're um very much on the

perspective we're um very much on the lookout for when the values do come in

lookout for when the values do come in line with our expectations of where the

line with our expectations of where the macro is

macro is John William

John William uh I think clearly focus on the existing

uh I think clearly focus on the existing hotels rather than new builds I think

hotels rather than new builds I think they will not be very active uh

they will not be very active uh preferably portfolios versus single

preferably portfolios versus single asset but you know they're also starting

asset but you know they're also starting to do the PE funds are also started to

to do the PE funds are also started to do aggregation games they've done that

do aggregation games they've done that in in many other sectors so I think

in in many other sectors so I think we're going to see a few of those where

we're going to see a few of those where they start buying smaller assets and

they start buying smaller assets and start to put portfolios together uh

start to put portfolios together uh obviously Mass financing because of the

obviously Mass financing because of the lack of that or or the top of the debt a

lack of that or or the top of the debt a free olds versus uh versus lease

free olds versus uh versus lease portfolios in my mind I can't see them

portfolios in my mind I can't see them being very active buying you know at

being very active buying you know at least up close basically

least up close basically uh new development I think will be

uh new development I think will be limited

limited okay Sabine

okay Sabine yeah I mean again pretty much Echo here

yeah I mean again pretty much Echo here what what we heard so far I think the uh

what what we heard so far I think the uh the opportunity certainly there's a lot

the opportunity certainly there's a lot of talk about that site and I think that

of talk about that site and I think that rightly so again giving that obviously

rightly so again giving that obviously senior lenders are being I guess

senior lenders are being I guess restricted to some level from icr

restricted to some level from icr covenants and the like I think that that

covenants and the like I think that that probably creates quite significant

probably creates quite significant opportunity across the board by the way

opportunity across the board by the way not just for Hospitality I do think that

not just for Hospitality I do think that there is a a value to be found for you

there is a a value to be found for you know converting independent hotels into

know converting independent hotels into International branded ones as we already

International branded ones as we already have before and then uh you know I think

have before and then uh you know I think depending on the market I mean there is

depending on the market I mean there is there can be obviously value in in uh

there can be obviously value in in uh you know taking these whole assets and

you know taking these whole assets and trying to convert it back into Freehold

trying to convert it back into Freehold uh I think for us you know we are

uh I think for us you know we are agnostic but obviously the clear

agnostic but obviously the clear preference for investors normally would

preference for investors normally would be the Freehold title right eventually

be the Freehold title right eventually so

so um I think from that perspective yeah

um I think from that perspective yeah that's kind of uh I guess the focus of

that's kind of uh I guess the focus of classical private equity

here which is kind of interesting is the kind of the debt of the office and I

kind of the debt of the office and I wonder if PE on the long term are going

wonder if PE on the long term are going to start to be interested to start to

to start to be interested to start to convert offices into let's say Budget

convert offices into let's say Budget Hotels I mean that's not really we did

Hotels I mean that's not really we did we did that so far but uh it wouldn't

we did that so far but uh it wouldn't surprise me if there's going to be some

surprise me if there's going to be some PE guys out there that do conversions

yeah well just to say we did convert one the only issue with that is obviously

the only issue with that is obviously the it works actually reasonably well

the it works actually reasonably well with let's see some older smaller size B

with let's see some older smaller size B stock offices right that obviously are

stock offices right that obviously are facing considerable kind of valuation

facing considerable kind of valuation issues currently

issues currently um uh you know also from an EHD

um uh you know also from an EHD perspective the only issue with that is

perspective the only issue with that is sometimes you know the floor plate is

sometimes you know the floor plate is too big too large the issue is at a

too big too large the issue is at a practical one because your room will

practical one because your room will only have a certain length and so as a

only have a certain length and so as a result of that if the Flop head is too

result of that if the Flop head is too large and obviously you need to have as

large and obviously you need to have as well you know windows or natural light

well you know windows or natural light you can't just you know build your room

you can't just you know build your room like you know two meters times you know

like you know two meters times you know ten it it just has to have a certain

ten it it just has to have a certain minimum kind of width as well and uh you

minimum kind of width as well and uh you know short of just putting a hole into

know short of just putting a hole into the heart of that building in the middle

the heart of that building in the middle which is obviously highly inefficient

which is obviously highly inefficient for the bigger offices I'm not sure how

for the bigger offices I'm not sure how well these conversions you know are kind

well these conversions you know are kind of rumors here realize but yeah you're

of rumors here realize but yeah you're right so we did it on a these smaller

right so we did it on a these smaller size B office and then it actually works

size B office and then it actually works quite well

quite well and of course if if you've got larger

and of course if if you've got larger floor plates that gives opportunities to

floor plates that gives opportunities to the Hostile sector who can make just

the Hostile sector who can make just bigger rooms and use those dead spaces

bigger rooms and use those dead spaces in the middle of buildings that's right

in the middle of buildings that's right yeah but in conversion NASA needs to

yeah but in conversion NASA needs to work though right to sabine's point um

work though right to sabine's point um because some of these offices aren't

because some of these offices aren't located where that traveler will go or

located where that traveler will go or um the valuation of price per square

um the valuation of price per square foot for those commercial offices for

foot for those commercial offices for some of them might not work from a

some of them might not work from a conversion story but I agree it's it's

conversion story but I agree it's it's there it's just it's not this everything

there it's just it's not this everything can be converted into hotels and it

can be converted into hotels and it solves the the problem of office space

solves the the problem of office space yeah I mean actually I have a theory

yeah I mean actually I have a theory about app reach out

about app reach out um you know we know the way the retail

um you know we know the way the retail sectors going if you've got these big

sectors going if you've got these big department stores leave the middle of

department stores leave the middle of the floor plate to retail and take the

the floor plate to retail and take the outside of the buildings where the

outside of the buildings where the windows are uh and and put hotel rooms

windows are uh and and put hotel rooms around that so anyway that's for another

around that so anyway that's for another time Chris Penny and we're just picking

time Chris Penny and we're just picking up what the guys who said it is

up what the guys who said it is definitely going to be the trend right I

definitely going to be the trend right I think new build development is super

think new build development is super expensive with what's happened with

expensive with what's happened with labor inflation so repurposing existing

labor inflation so repurposing existing buildings is much more cost effective

buildings is much more cost effective um and the same thing of moving from

um and the same thing of moving from Independence to to Brands um it's really

Independence to to Brands um it's really interesting talking to Marriott Hilton

interesting talking to Marriott Hilton IHG they're all pushing their soft

IHG they're all pushing their soft refurbishment Brands

refurbishment Brands um to say that you know really trying to

um to say that you know really trying to get that that refurbishment cost down

get that that refurbishment cost down and plug it into their distribution

and plug it into their distribution system

system um I think a lot of a lot of uh

um I think a lot of a lot of uh independent owners kind of got through

independent owners kind of got through covered with various government supports

covered with various government supports taking out extra sea bills extra loans

taking out extra sea bills extra loans Etc and now that those guys are coming

Etc and now that those guys are coming up for refinancing and there's the

up for refinancing and there's the opportunity to plug it into you know

opportunity to plug it into you know something like a Mario as an autograph

something like a Mario as an autograph or ihd as a vocal or whatever right and

or ihd as a vocal or whatever right and you know that that's going to be um uh

you know that that's going to be um uh you know I think a few more assets going

you know I think a few more assets going that direction

that direction thank you so Louise it's interesting

thank you so Louise it's interesting that none of our private Equity players

that none of our private Equity players um seems to want to get into providing

um seems to want to get into providing mezzanine fans Finance or Junior debt or

mezzanine fans Finance or Junior debt or whatever sort of leaving the road free

whatever sort of leaving the road free to the traditional lenders but

to the traditional lenders but um what's what's your view on

um what's what's your view on um what

um what most people are going to want to be

most people are going to want to be seeing uh investment in

seeing uh investment in um do you for example get involved in

um do you for example get involved in development Finance for those that have

development Finance for those that have the courage and the the world who want

the courage and the the world who want to build from scratch

to build from scratch it was still doing development Finance I

it was still doing development Finance I think the um pipeline of development

think the um pipeline of development projects is much smaller

projects is much smaller um but there are you know still plenty

um but there are you know still plenty of um investors there it's costly to not

of um investors there it's costly to not do anything with their sites um and

do anything with their sites um and development financing is achievable it's

development financing is achievable it's um it is higher priced at the moment

um it is higher priced at the moment because it does come with a higher risk

because it does come with a higher risk we have to be clear that it is at the

we have to be clear that it is at the current times the inflationary pressures

current times the inflationary pressures is higher risk but I think it's taken a

is higher risk but I think it's taken a step back and

step back and um understanding the projects in detail

um understanding the projects in detail specifically their procurement plans

specifically their procurement plans which parts should we be able to lock

which parts should we be able to lock down costs on which parts should we be

down costs on which parts should we be adding more inflationary assumptions to

adding more inflationary assumptions to um so I don't think the development will

um so I don't think the development will stop

stop um potentially it's more High net worth

um potentially it's more High net worth investors where they can hold their

investors where they can hold their projects for a longer term than it is

projects for a longer term than it is private equity in the current time and I

private equity in the current time and I think that that is key that in order to

think that that is key that in order to really maximize your investment the

really maximize your investment the holding Horizons are longer

holding Horizons are longer okay I can just add um one thing I think

okay I can just add um one thing I think Chris and I both work for firms um that

Chris and I both work for firms um that have credit funds um and those those

have credit funds um and those those that team I think are really excited

that team I think are really excited about the the junior piece are talking

about the the junior piece are talking about because frankly senior lenders

about because frankly senior lenders their LTV is lower than what the actual

their LTV is lower than what the actual ask is out there for total proceeds so I

ask is out there for total proceeds so I think about if anything that's where

think about if anything that's where we're seeing the most activity and

we're seeing the most activity and opportunity in the US is our credit team

opportunity in the US is our credit team interesting yeah exactly it's just that

interesting yeah exactly it's just that just the return hurdle for the

just the return hurdle for the opportunity fund right yeah

opportunity fund right yeah okay so um thanks guys um I'm gonna look

okay so um thanks guys um I'm gonna look to our distinguished audience to ask the

to our distinguished audience to ask the next question

next question um first of all follow up on the rising

um first of all follow up on the rising cost of capital both equity and debt

cost of capital both equity and debt would you consider Club deals and having

would you consider Club deals and having multiple investors on board to lower

multiple investors on board to lower that cost what are the pros and cons of

that cost what are the pros and cons of something like that further down the

something like that further down the line so

line so um Club deals any interest young Willem

um Club deals any interest young Willem I've not really seen that I think but uh

I've not really seen that I think but uh in the past I think you know all the Pas

in the past I think you know all the Pas they don't really need any other capital

they don't really need any other capital I guess mixing it up with lower Capital

I guess mixing it up with lower Capital requirements and funds I think is going

requirements and funds I think is going to be difficult

to be difficult and Tina we've done a club deals in

and Tina we've done a club deals in larger deals it's not it doesn't solve

larger deals it's not it doesn't solve for cost of capital issue because most

for cost of capital issue because most of the time we're partnering with

of the time we're partnering with another private Equity Fund like KKR

another private Equity Fund like KKR that has the same cost Capital as us but

that has the same cost Capital as us but um we did it on Apple Leisure group as

um we did it on Apple Leisure group as well as in our um Ross Aviation which is

well as in our um Ross Aviation which is our private

our private um Aviation business in the US and that

um Aviation business in the US and that was more of a question of bringing

was more of a question of bringing complementary skill sets and also

complementary skill sets and also um Capital to the table for a large deal

um Capital to the table for a large deal but it doesn't really as I say solve the

but it doesn't really as I say solve the cost of capital issue

cost of capital issue and and for you Sabine are you involved

and and for you Sabine are you involved in any or interested in him I mean

in any or interested in him I mean certainly in theory you can but then you

certainly in theory you can but then you know practically you look at issues like

know practically you look at issues like again the men that we normally have is

again the men that we normally have is not we're not passive right we're active

not we're not passive right we're active so you're becoming part of a club and

so you're becoming part of a club and then you know who's control you know

then you know who's control you know it's not impossible and certainly you

it's not impossible and certainly you know we do but generally speaking it's

know we do but generally speaking it's not a club it's more you know core

not a club it's more you know core Investments alongside of for example

Investments alongside of for example what do we do right so that's more what

what do we do right so that's more what we use to to see actually

we use to to see actually I think Russell I can see your club with

I think Russell I can see your club with the seller sometimes the seller stayed

the seller sometimes the seller stayed in

could help right in this day and age the debt financing issues we've seen that in

debt financing issues we've seen that in terms of being creative on capital

terms of being creative on capital structure exactly I think you know

structure exactly I think you know there's Graham pointed out in his

there's Graham pointed out in his presentation like there's no shortage of

presentation like there's no shortage of dry powder it's it's only if it's a

dry powder it's it's only if it's a really large deal so we teamed up with

really large deal so we teamed up with Blackstone in 2020 when we took down Esa

Blackstone in 2020 when we took down Esa in the US but that was a six billion

in the US but that was a six billion dollar transaction

dollar transaction um so you know can you just stress to be

um so you know can you just stress to be a billion rather than

yeah exactly right and then we've done another you know one plus billion of

another you know one plus billion of bolt-ons on top of that so you don't

bolt-ons on top of that so you don't make a deal in the US that sort of thing

make a deal in the US that sort of thing we team up but um

we team up but um yeah it I think most of the guys on this

yeah it I think most of the guys on this call will have their Capital to do the

call will have their Capital to do the deal as if they if they can get the

deal as if they if they can get the returns to work right

returns to work right okay James any examples of Club deals

okay James any examples of Club deals that you've been involved with

that you've been involved with yeah so I mean I've got a number of

yeah so I mean I've got a number of deals I mean Tina said doing it where

deals I mean Tina said doing it where the equity is clubbing together is

the equity is clubbing together is difficult but bringing in skill sets we

difficult but bringing in skill sets we see that quite a lot whereas a capital

see that quite a lot whereas a capital investor who hasn't necessarily got the

investor who hasn't necessarily got the the skills to management Hotel will team

the skills to management Hotel will team up to do that together and they may put

up to do that together and they may put some capital in as well vendors staying

some capital in as well vendors staying in the deal and that sort of thing tends

in the deal and that sort of thing tends to be far more common than sort of JV

to be far more common than sort of JV type structures between

type structures between um private Equity unless it's a very big

um private Equity unless it's a very big deal

deal I'm assuming Louise you have nothing to

I'm assuming Louise you have nothing to add on this but if you do now Now's the

add on this but if you do now Now's the Time

Time another member of our distinguished

another member of our distinguished audience says to what extent does ESG

audience says to what extent does ESG drive your investment decisions and he

drive your investment decisions and he he points out that uh typical investment

he points out that uh typical investment memorandas are remarkably silent on such

memorandas are remarkably silent on such matters so

matters so um you know what do you see is the role

um you know what do you see is the role and importance of ESG on the hotel

and importance of ESG on the hotel sector Chris

um so it's definitely an important factor Ryan is becoming increasingly so

factor Ryan is becoming increasingly so um over the last probably four years

um over the last probably four years it's gone from something that we talked

it's gone from something that we talked about at the back end of our investment

about at the back end of our investment committee papers to something that's

committee papers to something that's right you know up front in our analysis

right you know up front in our analysis um the risk of obsolescence and assets

um the risk of obsolescence and assets is you know something that a year two

is you know something that a year two years ago no one was concerned about

years ago no one was concerned about people just used to get an EPC as long

people just used to get an EPC as long as it wasn't an F or something okay

as it wasn't an F or something okay we're fine now we're much more focused

we're fine now we're much more focused on you know is this asset

on you know is this asset um the whole UK European and global

um the whole UK European and global economy is moving towards net zero at

economy is moving towards net zero at various speeds and you're going to have

various speeds and you're going to have to align into that

to align into that I think where actually we see the

I think where actually we see the biggest focus on this is um not just on

biggest focus on this is um not just on the investment side but on the

the investment side but on the operations and actually using uh that to

operations and actually using uh that to drive your returns by you know improving

drive your returns by you know improving Energy Efficiency decrease increasing

Energy Efficiency decrease increasing the cost

the cost but also you know I'll talk my own

but also you know I'll talk my own company here but you know working with a

company here but you know working with a company like one one eight hours and the

company like one one eight hours and the way that they position those assets on

way that they position those assets on the sustainability Point really Taps

the sustainability Point really Taps into

into customer demand and you can drive uh you

customer demand and you can drive uh you know real rate premium because the

know real rate premium because the customer you know wants to travel

customer you know wants to travel sustainably wants to go to a hotel that

sustainably wants to go to a hotel that aligns with their beliefs and values and

aligns with their beliefs and values and will pay up for that

will pay up for that so you know it you know factors into our

so you know it you know factors into our our whole underwrite but also you know

our whole underwrite but also you know operationally how we're um how we're

operationally how we're um how we're running our businesses managing our our

running our businesses managing our our waste and our energy consumption and

waste and our energy consumption and it's flowing through into profitability

it's flowing through into profitability so being I know you're pretty passionate

so being I know you're pretty passionate about ESG

about ESG um so what what do you have to work to

um so what what do you have to work to say on the subject yeah I mean going

say on the subject yeah I mean going forward yeah and you're right so we've

forward yeah and you're right so we've been obviously on this on this uh kind

been obviously on this on this uh kind of broad already for quite a while so as

of broad already for quite a while so as people know we had of course ESG manager

people know we had of course ESG manager eight years back and simply because you

eight years back and simply because you know again if you are the developer and

know again if you are the developer and if you are the data operator you want to

if you are the data operator you want to make sure you know that you're doing

make sure you know that you're doing things right in particular ground-up

things right in particular ground-up development initially and then also now

development initially and then also now on the on the reconversions of assets if

on the on the reconversions of assets if you're going along I think I mean we

you're going along I think I mean we heard it before it helps on so many

heard it before it helps on so many areas right I mean it helps on the

areas right I mean it helps on the energy side energy bills obviously going

energy side energy bills obviously going up so that's great if you have a way of

up so that's great if you have a way of how to mitigate that at least to some

how to mitigate that at least to some level it helps you from your um you know

level it helps you from your um you know financing as well I mean at the moment

financing as well I mean at the moment everybody talks about Green Loans and

everybody talks about Green Loans and and you know the fact that the

and you know the fact that the conditions may not be from a commercial

conditions may not be from a commercial perspective so much superior to the

perspective so much superior to the standard commercial loans but fast

standard commercial loans but fast forward in five years time we do believe

forward in five years time we do believe that you know as risk management is

that you know as risk management is starting to rule our lives right it's

starting to rule our lives right it's going to be your ASG compliant you get a

going to be your ASG compliant you get a loan you're not the issue compliance so

loan you're not the issue compliance so you will no longer be compliant with

you will no longer be compliant with senior Banking and I think that means

senior Banking and I think that means that the cost of the cost of Finance is

that the cost of the cost of Finance is going to go up uh you know we see it in

going to go up uh you know we see it in you know when it comes to Staffing and

you know when it comes to Staffing and and retaining your stuff and that the

and retaining your stuff and that the Next Generation they do take those

Next Generation they do take those things serious so

things serious so um important element there and then you

um important element there and then you know in some areas you even get you know

know in some areas you even get you know benefits from the government side in the

benefits from the government side in the forms of taxes I mean

forms of taxes I mean um you know one of our bigger platforms

um you know one of our bigger platforms obviously in australasia and there the

obviously in australasia and there the government gives you a you know a final

government gives you a you know a final withholding tax kind of break if if

withholding tax kind of break if if you're if you add it as it happens to be

you're if you add it as it happens to be uh you know achieving a high HD standard

uh you know achieving a high HD standard so so it makes sense already today a

so so it makes sense already today a commercially plus you're doing the right

commercially plus you're doing the right thing by the environment and you know

thing by the environment and you know factors that in Europe some of the

factors that in Europe some of the biggest institutions will no longer be

biggest institutions will no longer be able to to to to to invest because uh

able to to to to to invest because uh they're obviously from a I guess new

they're obviously from a I guess new taxonomy perspective

taxonomy perspective um you know issue a portfolio your

um you know issue a portfolio your portfolio doesn't hold a certain

portfolio doesn't hold a certain percentage of ESG confined assets not

percentage of ESG confined assets not just in hotels but again in general

just in hotels but again in general going forward uh you know you'll be fine

going forward uh you know you'll be fine so it's a pretty obvious from up from

so it's a pretty obvious from up from our perspective it's pretty obvious

our perspective it's pretty obvious seeing what people should do now

seeing what people should do now obviously the big question is how are we

obviously the big question is how are we getting there and as I think 80 of the

getting there and as I think 80 of the buildings that we'll be standing in 2050

buildings that we'll be standing in 2050 already are standing assets you know

already are standing assets you know it's really up to us all to figure out

it's really up to us all to figure out ways of how to make those standing

ways of how to make those standing assets you know and convert them into

assets you know and convert them into ESG compliant ones

ESG compliant ones um that's that that's that's certainly a

um that's that that's that's certainly a task upon us all and it's not easy but

task upon us all and it's not easy but but we just have to work on it

but we just have to work on it so it's not easy senior or have you

so it's not easy senior or have you found a way to make it easy

found a way to make it easy no it's um it's not easy and certainly

no it's um it's not easy and certainly the measurement

the measurement um and trying to keep up with exactly

um and trying to keep up with exactly what the regulatory

what the regulatory um government is going to want out of a

um government is going to want out of a report from a reporting perspective

report from a reporting perspective um you know there's there's a lot of

um you know there's there's a lot of catching up to do even if you are doing

catching up to do even if you are doing all the right things to get up to speed

all the right things to get up to speed on the reporting element I'd say that I

on the reporting element I'd say that I would only add I'm agree with everyone

would only add I'm agree with everyone um in what they say the only thing I'd

um in what they say the only thing I'd add is it's also becoming incredibly

add is it's also becoming incredibly important to the employees of our hotel

important to the employees of our hotel companies you know there's certain

companies you know there's certain um companies that we have today that I

um companies that we have today that I think actually are a better positioned

think actually are a better positioned from a labor market perspective because

from a labor market perspective because they align very well to the values of

they align very well to the values of their employees

their employees um and so it's it's not just the

um and so it's it's not just the consumers are demanding it but it's also

consumers are demanding it but it's also our employees

our employees so consumer demanding it employees are

so consumer demanding it employees are demanding it investors are demanding it

demanding it investors are demanding it young Willem have you how do you make it

young Willem have you how do you make it all stack out well I I think you know is

all stack out well I I think you know is you becoming obviously a major item in

you becoming obviously a major item in all the investors mindset though I think

all the investors mindset though I think there's still a lot of confusion and

there's still a lot of confusion and some clarity lack of clarity about you

some clarity lack of clarity about you know what the different metrics are the

know what the different metrics are the requirements but I think that's

requirements but I think that's obviously over the next couple of years

obviously over the next couple of years that would be very much clarified you

that would be very much clarified you know what is really focus on it and ESU

know what is really focus on it and ESU reporting is becoming uh now quite

reporting is becoming uh now quite normal in all institutional reporting

normal in all institutional reporting both to the banks and to the investors

both to the banks and to the investors um I think there's still a risk as well

um I think there's still a risk as well on this zombie properties you know we're

on this zombie properties you know we're gonna fit you know fall behind and it

gonna fit you know fall behind and it will be so expensive to improve and hit

will be so expensive to improve and hit this requirements over the next couple

this requirements over the next couple of years

of years interesting

interesting um now Louise you're looking at it from

um now Louise you're looking at it from a different perspective but is this now

a different perspective but is this now more than just a box ticking exercise as

more than just a box ticking exercise as far as you're concerned yes I think so I

far as you're concerned yes I think so I mean

mean um part of our appetite is financing

um part of our appetite is financing World Cup X assets or where the project

World Cup X assets or where the project is to provide capex on those assets so I

is to provide capex on those assets so I think with that in mind it's it's quite

think with that in mind it's it's quite hard for investors to be doing capex

hard for investors to be doing capex without thinking of energy efficiencies

without thinking of energy efficiencies and everything else that's going around

and everything else that's going around it so I think the nature of the business

it so I think the nature of the business we do

we do um means that ESG is is important to

um means that ESG is is important to those transactions

those transactions um measuring on an ongoing basis is is

um measuring on an ongoing basis is is an issue I think it will be

an issue I think it will be um interesting when it's all bought into

um interesting when it's all bought into the uniform system of accounts

the uniform system of accounts um to see what type of assets is

um to see what type of assets is performing at what level and what looks

performing at what level and what looks good over the variety of assets that we

good over the variety of assets that we Finance you know it's very easy for a

Finance you know it's very easy for a purpose-built limited service disaster

purpose-built limited service disaster to be performing at one level but try

to be performing at one level but try pushing that on a luxury asset and

pushing that on a luxury asset and something that's been repositioned they

something that's been repositioned they look very different so I think the the

look very different so I think the the monitoring is going to be

monitoring is going to be um needs to be thought through

um needs to be thought through interestingly I was having a

interestingly I was having a conversation yesterday evening with a

conversation yesterday evening with a member of the committee that is

member of the committee that is responsible for producing the next

responsible for producing the next edition of the uniform system and I

edition of the uniform system and I asked her to what extent are you

asked her to what extent are you considering ESG as part of this

considering ESG as part of this um and even they are now finally waking

um and even they are now finally waking up to the fact that this does need to be

up to the fact that this does need to be properly addressed and I'm hopeful that

properly addressed and I'm hopeful that by the time I think it's the 15th

by the time I think it's the 15th Edition it's the next one coming out by

Edition it's the next one coming out by the time we get that ESG will actually

the time we get that ESG will actually have made more of an impact uh in that

have made more of an impact uh in that James I'm going to ask you to wrap up on

James I'm going to ask you to wrap up on this particular uh topic and you know do

this particular uh topic and you know do you have a good example of a hotel

you have a good example of a hotel company that's already dealing with ESG

company that's already dealing with ESG particularly well

particularly well yes well I well we have have one on the

yes well I well we have have one on the call but there are a number of people

call but there are a number of people out there who um are uh you know sort of

out there who um are uh you know sort of leading the charge on that so lamington

leading the charge on that so lamington and Zeal hotels and again you know talk

and Zeal hotels and again you know talk to them they are very much into that as

to them they are very much into that as a key part of their business strategy

a key part of their business strategy going forward I get I guess there's a

going forward I get I guess there's a couple of things I other you look at

couple of things I other you look at other real estate sectors there has

other real estate sectors there has already been government intervention

already been government intervention saying you have to hit minimum energy

saying you have to hit minimum energy criteria standards I suspect we will see

criteria standards I suspect we will see more and more legislation and it's

more and more legislation and it's almost certainly an impact on hotels

almost certainly an impact on hotels they've done offices they've done

they've done offices they've done residential letting you know it is

residential letting you know it is coming our way the government will be

coming our way the government will be saying you have to hit these standards

saying you have to hit these standards what there hasn't been and there's been

what there hasn't been and there's been a discussion we've had lots of times is

a discussion we've had lots of times is um I've done a number of Green Loans the

um I've done a number of Green Loans the reality is the pool of capital funding

reality is the pool of capital funding those is no different from

those is no different from um the capital funding and longering

um the capital funding and longering Loans what we haven't seen yet in any

Loans what we haven't seen yet in any great volume is capital allocations that

great volume is capital allocations that aren't specifically targeted at Green

aren't specifically targeted at Green assets and that is that I think is what

assets and that is that I think is what will come it's not there yet nothing

will come it's not there yet nothing significant numbers yet anyway but when

significant numbers yet anyway but when there is a real distinction between a

there is a real distinction between a funds specifically talking in that

funds specifically talking in that sector with pricing that is beneficial

sector with pricing that is beneficial to do so that's when we'll be starting

to do so that's when we'll be starting to get there

to get there um a very quick follow-up question to

um a very quick follow-up question to build on what we've been talking about

build on what we've been talking about comes from our audience how much do the

comes from our audience how much do the panel believe the significant cost of

panel believe the significant cost of hotels heading towards net zero will

hotels heading towards net zero will affect their valuation aspirations how

affect their valuation aspirations how much did the panel believe the

much did the panel believe the significant cost of a tells heading

significant cost of a tells heading towards net zero is going to affect your

towards net zero is going to affect your valuation experiences aspirations uh Jan

valuation experiences aspirations uh Jan Willem a very quick answer from each of

Willem a very quick answer from each of you

you well evaluations will be impacted by the

well evaluations will be impacted by the additional cash you need to spend so you

additional cash you need to spend so you know so valuation values are going to go

know so valuation values are going to go down anybody got a different View

down anybody got a different View okay

okay all I've had is all I've had is that um

all I've had is all I've had is that um I don't think hotels are any worse than

I don't think hotels are any worse than any average business anyway globally

any average business anyway globally right so okay the value of everything

right so okay the value of everything will have to go down because we've got

will have to go down because we've got to decarbonize the world right you've

to decarbonize the world right you've got to find the money from somewhere

got to find the money from somewhere okay guys I'm very sorry but we've got

okay guys I'm very sorry but we've got to our last question we we you know our

to our last question we we you know our timers run out so quickly a very quick

timers run out so quickly a very quick answer from each of you and please don't

answer from each of you and please don't repeat anything that one of the other

repeat anything that one of the other panel has mentioned but I would like to

panel has mentioned but I would like to know in your view the key Trend that

know in your view the key Trend that you're factoring into your view of the

you're factoring into your view of the hotel sector over the next 12 months

hotel sector over the next 12 months what key Trend are you factoring in

what key Trend are you factoring in Louise

Louise uh probably unfortunately interest costs

uh probably unfortunately interest costs staying higher for longer than what we

staying higher for longer than what we anticipate

anticipate Express

Express uh the return of Asian traveling to

uh the return of Asian traveling to Europe

Europe Sabine

Sabine the um how things are paneling out

the um how things are paneling out between people looking for leisure

between people looking for leisure destinations or leisure travel and

destinations or leisure travel and obviously seeing the uh I guess business

obviously seeing the uh I guess business travel coming back um

for me I think it's owners having to find cash to inject into deals on

find cash to inject into deals on refinancing and potentially the stress

refinancing and potentially the stress stay on sales when those don't come

stay on sales when those don't come through Jan Willem higher cost of

through Jan Willem higher cost of renovation and cabbage and Tina

renovation and cabbage and Tina Costa airfare for travel or just the

Costa airfare for travel or just the cost of travel outside of the tulses and

cost of travel outside of the tulses and with that I bring the obsession to an

with that I bring the obsession to an end and thank you all very much for your

end and thank you all very much for your participation thank you all very much

participation thank you all very much Chris

thank you very much Russell that was great really interesting discussion uh

great really interesting discussion uh so thank you to all uh panelists that

so thank you to all uh panelists that was very good thank you

was very good thank you and thank you to all the present

and thank you to all the present presenters this morning

presenters this morning um two great and insightful

um two great and insightful presentations from Graham and Charles

presentations from Graham and Charles who explained the challenge that the

who explained the challenge that the industry are facing now

industry are facing now I'm gonna see my screen's gone pink so

I'm gonna see my screen's gone pink so not quite sure why but um it adds a bit

not quite sure why but um it adds a bit of flavor

of flavor um do we agree that we Face a

um do we agree that we Face a challenging rest of 2023 I suspect that

challenging rest of 2023 I suspect that is true but I know we're facing looking

is true but I know we're facing looking at recovery now in 2024 question mark

at recovery now in 2024 question mark oh

oh fascinating Panel LED by Russell

fascinating Panel LED by Russell um look Hotel assets have performed

um look Hotel assets have performed relatively well over the over the last

relatively well over the over the last few years and that's been encouraging it

few years and that's been encouraging it is clearly an opportunity and despite

is clearly an opportunity and despite all the challenges and investors are

all the challenges and investors are clearly looking for those opportunities

clearly looking for those opportunities esgs does seem to become a bigger and

esgs does seem to become a bigger and bigger issues and I'll be interesting to

bigger issues and I'll be interesting to see how that become agrees in time

see how that become agrees in time um

um however where is the best place to

however where is the best place to invest which of which countries will

invest which of which countries will attract the best investment as we move

attract the best investment as we move forward I think those clear indications

forward I think those clear indications from our uh from our speakers but do you

from our uh from our speakers but do you agree and overall you do get a feeling

agree and overall you do get a feeling there's a real sense of positivity

there's a real sense of positivity spreading in the industry which is great

spreading in the industry which is great and growing I think everyone is a very

and growing I think everyone is a very nervous but q1 I think people are glad

nervous but q1 I think people are glad that q1 performed as it did and we are

that q1 performed as it did and we are seeing

seeing a stronger recovery than perhaps was

a stronger recovery than perhaps was expected

expected um and overall the Outlook is more

um and overall the Outlook is more positive than perhaps people could

positive than perhaps people could feared back at the start of the year

feared back at the start of the year uh thank you for your questions today

uh thank you for your questions today that's obviously a key part thank you

that's obviously a key part thank you for your engagement

for your engagement and uh thank you to all and I look

and uh thank you to all and I look forward to I wish you all a good day and

forward to I wish you all a good day and uh wish you well for the rest of the

uh wish you well for the rest of the time thank you very much indeed

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Transkrip YouTube:HVS Seminar: Hotel Investment and the Role of Private Equity, April 2023

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HVS Seminar: Hotel Investment and the Role of Private Equity, April 2023