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LIVE: ‘Ukraine War is Over’, Jeffrey Sachs ROCKS European Parliament With BLISTERING Ukraine Speech

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Summary

Core Theme

The text argues that current geopolitical conflicts, particularly the war in Ukraine, are the result of a long-term, consistent US foreign policy aimed at maintaining global unipolarity and expanding NATO, often at the expense of diplomatic engagement and international stability.

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Bombing Bgrade 78 straight days in 1999

was part of this project. Splitting

apart the country when borders are

sacrosanked, aren't they? Indeed, except

for Kosovo.

That's fine because borders are

sacrosanked except when America changes them.

them.

Sudan was another related project.

The South Sudan rebellion. Did that just

happen because South Sudin rebelled?

Or can I give you the CIA playbook

to please understand

Military events are costly. They require

equipment, training,

base camps, intelligence,

finance. That comes from big powers.

That doesn't come from local insurrections.

South Sudan did not defeat North Sudan

or Sudan

in a tribal battle.

It was a US project.

I would go often to Nairobi and meet US

military or senators or others with deep

interests in Sudan's politics.

This was part of the game of unipolarity.

unipolarity.

So the NATO enlargement, as you know,

started in 1999 with Hungary, Poland,

and the Czech Republic,

and Russia was extremely unhappy about

it. But these were countries still far

from the border and Russia protested

but of course to no avail. Then George

Bush Jr. came in when 9/11 occurred.

President Putin pledged all support

and then the US uh decided in September 20th,

2001

that it would launch seven wars in 5

years. And you can listen to General

Wesley Clark online talk about that. He

was NATO Supreme Commander in 1999.

He went to the Pentagon on September

20th, 2001. He was handed the paper

explaining seven wars. These, by the

way, were Netanyahu's wars. The idea was

partly to clean up old Soviet allies and

partly to take out supporters of Hamas

and Hezbollah

because Netanyahu's idea was there will

be one state. Thank you, only one state.

It will be Israel. Israel will control

all of the territory and anyone that

objects we will overthrow. Not we

exactly our friend the United States.

That's US policy until this morning.

We don't know whether it will change.

Now the only wrinkle is that maybe the

US will own Gaza instead of Israel

owning Gaza.

But the idea has been around at least

for 25 years.

It actually goes back to a document

called clean break that Netanyahu and

his American political team put together

in 1996 to end the idea of the two-state solution.

solution.

You can also find it online.

So these are projects. These are

long-term events. These aren't is it

Clinton, is it Bush, is it Obama.

That's the boring way to look at

American politics as the dayto-day game.

But that's not what American politics is.

is.

So the next round of NATO enlargement

came in 2004 with seven more countries,

the three Baltic states, Romania,

Bulgaria, Slovenia, and Slovakia.

At this point, Russia was pretty damn upset.

upset.

This was a complete violation of the

post war agreed

with German reunification.

Essentially, it was a

it it was a fundamental trick or

defection of the US from a cooperative arrangement

arrangement

is what it amounted to because they

So, as everybody recalls, because we

just had the Munich Security Conference

last week in 2007, President Putin said,

"Stop. Enough.

Enough. Stop now."

And of course, what that meant was in

2008, the United States jammed down

Europe's throat enlargement of NATO to

Ukraine and to Georgia. This is a

long-term project.

I listened to Mr. Sakashi in New York in

May of 2008 and I walked out, called

Sonia and said, "This man's crazy." And

a month later, a war broke out because

the United States told this guy, "We

saved Georgia." And he stands at the

Council on Foreign Relations says,

"Georgia's in the center of Europe."

Well, it ain't, ladies and gentlemen.

It's not in the center of Europe.

And the most recent events are not

helpful for Georgia for its safety and

your MPs going there or MEPs going there

and European politicians that gets

Georgia destroyed. That doesn't save

Georgia. That gets Georgia destroyed.

Completely destroyed. In 2008, as

everybody knows, our former CIA

director, William Burns, sent a long

message back to Condisa Rice. Niet means

net about expansion. This we know from

Julian Assange because believe me, not

one word is told to the American people

about anything or to you or by any of

your newspapers these days.

So we have Julian Assange to thank but

we can read the memo in detail.

As you know Victor Yanukovich was

elected in 2010 on the platform of

neutrality. Russia had no territorial

interests or designs in Ukraine at all.

I know I was there during these pe these

years. What Russia was negotiating was a

25-year lease to 20 42

for Savasto naval base. That's it.

Not for Crimea, not for the Donbas.

Nothing like that.

This idea that Putin reconstructing

the Russian Empire, this is childish

propaganda. Excuse me. If anyone knows

the daytoday and year-to-year history,

this is childish stuff.

Childish stuff seems to work better than

adult stuff.

So, no designs at all. The United States

decided this man must be overthrown.

It's called a regime change operation.

There have been about a hundred of them

by the United States. Many in your countries

countries

and many all over the world.

That's what the CIA does for a living.

Okay? Please know it. It's a very

unusual kind of foreign policy.

But in America, if you don't like the

other side, you don't negotiate with

them, you try to overthrow them,

preferably covertly.

If it doesn't work covertly, you do it overtly.

overtly.

You always say, "It's not our fault.

They're the aggressor. They're the other

side. They're Hitler." That comes up

every two or three years. Whether it's

Saddam Hussein, whether it's Assad,

whether it's Putin, that's very convenient.

convenient.

That's the only foreign policy

explanation the American people are ever

given anywhere.

Well, we're facing Munich 1938. Well,

we're facing Munich 1938. Can't talk to

the other side. They're evil, implacable foes.

foes.

That's the only model of foreign policy

we ever hear from our mass media and the

mass media repeats it entirely because

it's completely suborned by the US government.

government. Now

Now

in 2014

the US

worked actively to overthrow Yanukovich.

Everybody knows the phone call

intercepted by my Columbia University

colleague Victoria Nuland

and the US Ambassador Peter Pat.

You don't get better evidence. The

Russians intercepted her call and they

put it on the internet. Listen to it.

It's fascinating.

I know all these people,

by the way, by doing that they all got

promoted in the Biden administration.

That's the job. Now, when the Maidan

occurred, I was called immediately. Oh,

Professor Saxs, the new Ukrainian prime

minister would like to see you to talk

about the economic crisis

because I'm pretty good at that.

And so I flew to Kiev

and I was walked around the Maidan

and I was told how the US paid the money

for all the people around the Maidan. Spontaneous

Spontaneous

revolution of dignity.

Ladies and gentlemen, please.

Where do all these media outlets come

from? Where does all this organization

come from? Where do all these buses come

from? Where do all these people called

in come from? Are you kidding? This is

and

it's not a secret

except to citizens of Europe and the

United States. Everyone else understands

it quite clearly.

Then came Minsk

and especially Minsk 2 which by the way

was modeled on South Terrollian autonomy

and the Belgians could have related to

mitzu very well. It said there should be

autonomy for the Russianspeaking regions

in the east of Ukraine.

It was supported unanimously by the UN

Security Council.

The United States

and Ukraine decided it was not to be enforced.

enforced.

Germany and France, which were the

guarantors of the Normandy process,

let it go.

And it was absolutely another direct

American unipolar action with Europe as

usual playing completely

useless subsidiary role even though it

was a guarantor of the agreement.

Trump one raised the armaments.

There were many thousands of deaths in

the shelling by Ukraine in the Donbas.

There was no Minsk 2 agreement.

And then Biden came into office and

again I know all these people. I used to

be a member of the Democratic party. I

now am strictly sworn to be a member of

no party

because both are the same anyway.

And because this is I the Democrats

became complete wararm mongers over time

and there not was not one voice about

peace just like most of your

parliamentarians the same way.

Putin put on the table a last effort in

two security agreement drafts. One with

Europe and one with the United States.

The US put on the table December 15th n

uh 2021.

I had an hour call with Jake Sullivan in

the White House begging,

Jake, avoid the war.

You can avoid the war. All you have to

do is say NATO will not enlarge to Ukraine.

Ukraine.

And he said to me, "Oh, NATO's not going

to enlarge to Ukraine. Don't worry about

it." I said, "Jake, say it publicly."

No, no, no. We can't say it publicly.

said, ' Jake, you're going to have a war

over something that isn't even going to happen.

happen.

He said, 'D don't worry, Jeff. There

will be no war.

These are not very bright people.

I'm telling you, if I can give you my

honest view, they're not very bright

people. And I've dealt with them for

more than 40 years.

They talk to themselves. They don't talk

to anybody else. They play game theory.

In non-ooperative game theory, you don't

talk to the other side. You just make

your strategy.

It's not negotiation theory. It's not

peacemaking theory.

It is unilateral non-ooperative

theory. If you know formal game theory,

that's what they play. It started at the

Rand Corporation. That's what they still

play. In 2019, there's a paper by Rand,

how do we extend Russia? Do you know

they wrote a paper which Biden followed?

How do we annoy Russia?

That's literally the strategy. How do we

annoy Russia? We're trying to provoke

it, trying to make it break apart, maybe

have regime change, maybe have unrest,

maybe have economic crisis.

That's what you call your ally.

So, I had a long and frustrating

phone call with Sullivan.

I was standing out in the freezing cold.

I happened to be h trying to have a ski day

day

and there I was. Jake, don't have the war.

war.

Oh, there'll be no war. Jeff,

we know a lot of what happened the next

month, which is that they refused to negotiate.

negotiate.

The stupidest idea of NATO is the

so-called open door policy.

Are you kidding? NATO reserves the right

to go where it wants without any

neighbor having any say whatsoever?

Well, I tell the Mexicans and the

Canadians, don't try it.

You know,

Trump may want to take over Canada. So,

Canada could say to China, why don't you

build a military base uh in uh in in Ontario?

Ontario?

I wouldn't advise it.

And the United States would not say,

well, it's an open door. That's their

business. I mean, they can do what they

want. That's not our business.

But grown-ups in Europe, repeat this.

In Europe, in your commission, your high representative.

representative.

This is nonsense stuff. This is not even

This is just not thinking at all.

So, the war started. What was Putin's

intention in the war?

I can tell you what his intention was.

It was to force Zalinski to negotiate. Neutrality.

Neutrality.

And that happened within 7 days of the

start of the invasion.

You should understand this. Not the

propaganda that's written about this.

Oh, that they failed and he was going to

take over Ukraine.

Come on, ladies and gentlemen,

understand something basic.

The idea was to keep NATO, and what is

NATO? It's the United States,

off of Russia's border.

No more, no less.

I should add

one very important point. Why

are they so interested? first because if

China or Russia decided to have a

military base on the Rio Grand or in uh

the Canadian border, not only would the

United States freak out, we'd have war

within about 10 minutes,

but because the United States

unilaterally abandoned the

anti-bballistic missile treaty in 2002

and ended the nuclear arms control

framework by doing

And this is extremely important to understand.

understand.

The nuclear arms control framework is

based on trying to block a first strike.

The ABM treaty was a critical component

of that. The US unilaterally walked out

of the ABM treaty in 2002.

It blew a Russian gasket. So everything

I've been describing is in the context

of the destruction of the nuclear

framework as well. And starting in 2010,

the US put in Aegis missile systems in

Poland and then in Romania.

And Russia doesn't like that. And one of

the issues on the table in December and

January, December 2021, January 2022 was

does the United States claim the right

to put missile systems in Ukraine? And

Blinken told Lavrov in January 2022, the

United States reserves the right to put

missile missile systems wherever it wants.

That's your

puditive ally.

And now let's put intermediate missile

systems back in Germany. The United

States walked out of the INF treaty

unilaterally in 2019. There is no

When Zalinski said in seven days, let's negotiate.

negotiate.

I know the details of this exquisitly

exquisitly

because I've talked to all the parties

in detail.

Within a couple of weeks, there was a

document exchanged

that President Putin had approved that

Lavrov had presented that was being

managed by the Turkish mediators. I flew

to Anchora to listen in detail to what

the mediators were doing.

Ukraine walked away unilaterally from a

near agreement.

Why? Because the United States told them to.

to.

Because the UK

added icing to the cake by having Bojo

go in early April

to Ukraine and explain and he has

recently and if your security is in the

hands of Boris Johnson, God help us all.

Keith Starmer turns out to be even worse.

worse.

Boris Johnson has explained, and you can

look it up

on the website, that what's at stake

here is Western Hegemany,

Michael and I met at the Vatican with a

group in the spring of 2022

where we wrote a document explaining

nothing good can come out of this war

for Ukraine. Negotiate now because

anything that takes time will mean

massive amounts of deaths, risk of

nuclear escalation, and likely loss of

the war.

I wouldn't change one word from what we

wrote then. Nothing was wrong in that

document. And since that document, since

the US talked the negotiators away from

the table,

about a million Ukrainians have died or

been severely wounded.

And the American senators who are as

nasty and cynical and corrupt as imaginable

imaginable

say this is wonderful expenditure of our

money because no Americans are dying.

It's the pure proxy war. One of our

senators nearby me, uh, Blumenthal

says this out loud.

Mitt Romney says this out loud. It's

best money America can spend. No

Americans are dying.

It's unreal.

Now, just to bring us up to yesterday,

this failed. This project failed. The

idea of the project was that Russia

would fold its hand.

The idea all along was Russia can't

resist. As Ziggn Bjinski explained in 1997,

1997,

the Americans thought we have the upper hand.

hand.

We're going to win because we're going

to bluff them. They're not really going

to fight. They're not really going to mobilize.

mobilize.

The nuclear option of cutting them out

of Swift,

that's going to do them in. The economic

sanctions, that's going to do them in.

The highimars, that's going to do them

Honestly, I've listened to this for 70 years.

years.

I've listened to it as

semiunderstanding, I'd say, for uh about

56 years. They speak nonsense every day.

My country,

my government,

this is so familiar to me.

completely familiar. I begged the

Ukrainians and I had a track record with

the Ukrainians. I advised the

Ukrainians. I'm not anti- Ukrainian. I'm

pro- Ukrainian completely. I said, "Save

your lives. Save your sovereignty. Save

your territory. Be neutral. Don't listen

to the Americans."

I repeated to them the famous adage of

Henry Kissinger that to be an enemy of

the United States is dangerous but to be

a friend is fatal.

Okay, so let me repeat that for Europe.

To be an enemy of the United States is

So let me now finalize a few words about Trump.

Trump does not want the losing hand.

This is why

it is more likely than not this war will end

end

because Trump and President Putin will

agree to end the war.

If Europe does all its great wararm mongering,

mongering,

it doesn't matter. The war is ending.

So get it out of your system.

Please tell your colleagues

it's over.

And it's over because Trump doesn't want

to carry a loser.

That's it.

It's not some great morality. He doesn't

want to carry a loser. This is a loser.

The one that will be saved by the

negotiations taking place right now is Ukraine.

Ukraine.

Second is Europe. Your stock markets

rising in recent days, by the horrible

news of negotiations. I know this has

been met with the sheer horror in these chambers,

chambers,

but this is the best news

that you could get.

Now, I encouraged,

they don't listen to me, but I tried to

reach out to some of the European

leaders. Most don't want to hear

anything from me at all.

But I said,

don't go to Kiev.

Go to Moscow.

Discuss with your counterparts.

Are you kidding? your Europe, your $450

million people, your 20 trillion dollar economy,

economy,

you should be the main economic trading

partner of Russia, its natural links.

By the way, if anyone would like to

discuss how the US blew up Nordstream,

the Trump administration is imperialist

at heart.

It is a great powers

dominate the world.

It is we will do what we want when we can.

can.

Biden and we'll cut our losses where we

have to.

There are several war zones in the

world, the Middle East being another. We

don't know what will happen with that.

Again, if Europe had a proper policy,

you could stop that war. I'll explain how.

how. thought

thought

war with China is also a possibility.

So, I'm not saying that we're uh at the

new age of peace,

but we are in a uh

very uh different kind of politics right now.

now.

And Europe should have a foreign policy

and not just a foreign policy of rousophobia.

rousophobia.

a foreign policy that is a realistic

foreign policy that understands Russia's

situation, that understands Europe's

situation, that understands what America

is and what it stands for,

that tries to

avoid Europe being invaded by the United States

States

because it's not impossible that America

will just land troops in Danish territory.

territory.

I'm not joking.

And I don't think they're joking. And

Europe needs a foreign policy, a real

one, not a yes, we'll bargain with Mr.

Trump and meet him halfway.

You know what that will be like? Give me

Please don't have American officials as

head of Europe. have European officials. Please

Please

have a European foreign policy.

You're going to be living with Russia

for a long time.

So, please negotiate with Russia.

There are real security issues on the table.

table.

But the bombast and the rousophobia

is not serving your security at all.

It's not serving Ukraine security at

all. It contributed to a million

casualties in Ukraine from this idiotic

American adventure that you signed on to

and then became the lead cheerleaders of

on the Middle East. By the way,

the US

completely handed over foreign policy to

Netanyahu 30 years ago. The Israel lobby

dominates American politics. Just have

no doubt about it. I could explain for

hours how it works. It's very dangerous.

I'm hoping that Trump will not destroy

his administration

and worse the Palestinian people because

of Netanyahu, who I regard as a war

criminal uh properly indicted by the IC

and that needs to be told no more that

there will be a state of Palestine on

the borders of the 4th of June 1967.

according to international law as the

only way for peace. It's the only way

for Europe to have peace on your borders

with the Middle East is the two-state

solution. There is only one obstacle to

it, by the way, and that is the veto of

the United States and the UN Security

Council. So if you want to have some

influence, tell the United States, drop

the veto.

You are together with 180 countries in

the world. The only ones that oppose a

Palestinian state are

the United States, Israel, Micronisia, Nau,

Nau, Pao,

Pao,

Papa New Guinea,

Mr. Malay

So this is a place where Europe could

have a big influence.

Europe has gone silent about the JCPOA

and Iran.

Netanyahu's greatest dream in life is a

war between the United States and Iran.

He's not given up. And it's not

impossible that that would come also.

And that's because the US in this regard

does not have an independent foreign

policy. It is run by Israel. It's tragic.

tragic.

It's amazing. By the way,

and it could end. Trump may say that he

wants foreign policy back. Maybe. I'm

hoping that it's the case. Finally, let

me just say with respect to China, China

is not an enemy. China is just a success

story. That's why it is viewed by the

United States as an enemy because China

is a bigger economy than the United States.

States.

That's all. [Applause]

[Applause]

Very well. Now

questions. Please don't make any

statements. just make questions because

we have too many and we we don't have

that all that much time. So, um where do

I start? I start with on the left side.

I have a preference to the left. Yes,

you know you come over.

>> Yeah. Go ahead.

>> Uh thank you Jeffrey Sak uh from the

Czech Republic. We are glad we have you

here. Uh we have a problem. uh we were

cursed by a witch who told the EU and

the EU is mugged. Uh so uh it won't be

improved until 2029. But what we the

central Europeans should do in the

meantime, especially if the Germans

doesn't don't happen to vote for Sarah

Wagen connect enough. Uh are we supposed

to create some kind of neutrality uh for

the central Europe or what would you

So, uh, first of all, uh, all my

grandchildren are Czech, I want you to

know. Uh, and Sonia is a Czech born, uh,

and Czech citizen. Um, so we're very

proud. Uh, I'm I'm the trailing spouse

Europe needs to have a foreign policy

that is a European foreign policy and it

needs to be a realist foreign policy.

Realist is not hate. Realist is actually

trying to understand both sides and to

negotiate. There are two kinds of

realists. a defensive realist and

offensive realists.

My dear friend John Mirshimer, who is

the offensive realist, I I we're very

close friends and I love him, but I

believe more than he does, you talk to

the other side and you find a way to

make an understanding.

And so

basically uh

Russia is not going to invade Europe.

This is the fundamental point. It may

get up to the deeper river.

It's not going to invade Europe. But

there are real issues.

The the main issue for Russia was the

United States because Russia as a major

power and a the largest nuclear power in

the world was profoundly concerned about

US unipolarity from the beginning.

Now that this is seemingly possibly

ending, Europe has to open negotiations

directly with Russia as well because the

United States will quickly lose interest

and you're going to be living with

Russia for the next thousands of years.

Okay? So what do you want? You want to

make sure that the Baltic states are secure.

secure.

The best thing for the Baltic states is

This is the most important thing.

Estonia has about 25% Russian citizens

or Russian speaking citizens, ethnic Russians.

Russians.

Don't provoke the neighbor. That's all.

This is not heard.

It really isn't heard. And again, I want

to explain my point of view.

I have helped these countries, the ones

I'm talking about trying to advise. I'm

not their enemy. I'm not Putin's puppet.

I'm not Putin's apologist.

I worked in Estonia. They gave me I

don't it's not I think it's the second

highest civilian honor that a president

of Estonia can bestow on a non-national

because I designed their currency system

for them in 1992.

So I'm giving them advice. Do not stand

there Estonia and say we want to break

up Russia.

Are you kidding? Don't.

This is not how to survive in this

world. You survive with mutual respect. Actually,

Actually,

you survive in negotiation.

You survive in discussion. You don't

outlaw the Russian language.

Not a good idea. When 25% of your

population is has a first language of Russian,

Russian,

it's not right. Even if there weren't a

giant on the border, it wouldn't be the

right thing to do. You'd have it as an

official language.

You'd have a language of uh in lower

school. You wouldn't antagonize the

Russian Orthodox Church.

So basically, we need to behave like grown-ups.

grown-ups.

And when I

constantly say

that they're acting like children, Sonia

always says to me that's unfair to children

because this is worse than children.

We have a six-year-old granddaughter and

a three-year-old grandson and they

actually make up with their friends

and we don't tell them go just just

ridicule them tomorrow and every day.

We say go give them a hug and go play

and they do.

This is not hard.

by the way. Well, anyway, I won't

belabor the point. Thank you. So, elect

a new government. No, I shouldn't say

that. What all all I should say is

change change policy.

>> Does that work? Yeah. Hi, my name is

Kira. I'm a reporter with the Brussels

Times. Um, thank you for the fascinating

talk, Jeffrey. Um, I just wanted to ask

you about Trump's statements about

wanting uh NATO members to increase

their spending by 5%. And we're now

seeing lots of countries scrambling to

prove that they're going to do that,

including Belgium. And given that

Belgium is also the NATO headquarters,

um, I wanted to ask you what would be

the appropriate response to those

statements by NATO members. Thanks.

>> Uh, we don't see exactly eye to eye on

this question. Uh, so let me let me give

you my own uh my own view. Um,

my first recommendation with all respect

to Brussels is move the NATO

headquarters somewhere else. Uh,

I I mean it seriously because one of the worst

worst

parts of European

policy right now is a complete confusion

of Europe and NATO.

These are completely different, but they

became exactly the same. Europe

is much better than NATO.

In my opinion, NATO isn't even needed anymore.

anymore.

I would have ended it in 1991,

but because the US viewed it as a

instrument of hegemony,

not as a defense against Russia.

It continued afterwards. But the

confusion of NATO and Europe is deadly

because expanding Europe meant expanding NATO

NATO

period and these should have been

completely different things.

So this is uh the first point.

My own view, again with all respect to

Michael, we only had a brief

conversation about it, is that Europe

should have Europe basically should have

its own foreign policy and its own uh

its own military security, its own

strategic autonomy, so-called, and it

should. I'm in favor of that. I would

disband NATO, and maybe Trump is going

to do it anyway.

Maybe Trump's going to invade Greenland.

Who knows? Then you're really going to

find out what NATO means. So,

So,

I do think that Europe should invest in

its security.

5% is outlandish, ridiculous, absurd,

absurd,

completely absurd. No one needs to spend

anything like that amount.

two to 3% of GDP probably under the

What I would do, by the way, is buy

European production

unfortunately, in this world, and it's a

trueuism, but it's unfortunate, so I'm

not championing it. A lot of

technological innovation spins off from

the military sector

because governments invest in the

military sector.

So Trump is a arms salesman. You

understand that? He's selling American arms.

arms.

He is selling American technology.

Vance told you a few days ago, don't

even think about having your own AI technology.

technology.

So, please understand

that this increase of spending is for

And in this sense, I'm completely

against that approach.

But I would not be against an approach

of Europe spending two to three% of GDP

for a unified European security structure

structure

and invested in Europe and European technology

technology

and not having the United States dictate

the use of European technology.

It's so interesting. It's the

Netherlands that produces the only

machines of advanced semiconductors,

extreme ultraviolet lithography. It's ASML.

ASML.

But America determines every policy of

ASML. The Netherlands doesn't even have

I wouldn't do that if I were you. Hand

over all security to the United States.

I wouldn't do it.

I would have your own security

framework. So you can have your own

foreign policy framework as well. Europe

stands for lots of things that the

United States does not stand for. Europe

stands for climate action,

by the way, rightly so, cuz our

president is completely bonkers on this.

And Europe stands for decency,

for social democracy as an ethos. I'm

not talking about a party. I'm talking

about an ethos of how equality of life occurs.

occurs.

Europe stands for multilateralism.

Europe stands for the UN charter. The US

stands for none of those things.

You know that

our Secretary of State Marco Rubio

cancelled his trip to South Africa

because on the agenda was equality and sustainability

sustainability

and he said I'm not getting into that.

That is an honest reflection of deep Anglosaxon

Anglosaxon libertarianism.

Egalitarianism is not a word of the

American lexicon.

Sustainable development, not at all. You

probably know, by the way, that of the

193 UN member states,

191 have had SDG plans presented as

voluntary national reviews. 191. Two

have not. Haiti and the United States of America.

America.

The Biden administration wasn't even

allowed to say sustainable development

goals. The Treasury had a policy not to

say sustainable development goals. Okay,

I mention all of this because you need

your own foreign policy.

I issue a report, two reports each year.

won the world happiness report and 18 of

the top 20 countries if I I remember

correctly are European. This is the

highest quality of life in the whole

world. So you need your own policy to

protect that quality of life. The United

States ranks way down.

And the other report where's my

colleague Guom is somewhere in the room

here. There he is. Guom La Fortun is the

lead author of our annual sustainable

development report and almost all of the

top 20 countries are European countries

because you believe in this stuff and

that's why you're the happiest except in geopolitics

but quality of life. So you need your own

own

foreign policy, but you won't have it

unless you have your own security.

>> You just won't. And so, and by the way,

27 countries cannot each have their own

foreign policy. This is a problem. You

need a European foreign policy and a

European security structure. And by the

way, although Michael assures me it's

dead, I was the greatest fan of OCE

and believe that OCE is the proper

framework for European security. It

>> Thank you. Thank you very much.

>> Yeah. Okay. Uh well, uh thank you,

professor. I am from Slovakia and my

prime minister Robert Fitz was almost

shot dead because the opinions you had

the similar with him. Uh yes we are as a

Slovakia Slovaka government of the few

countries in the European Union we are

talking to Russians. Uh two months ago I

was talking with Mr. Medvev in two weeks

I will be talking uh in Duma with Mr.

Slutzki who is the chairman of the

Russian uh foreign affairs committee in

Moscow. Maybe my question is what would

you be your message to Russians in this

moment? Because as I heard they are on

the victorious wave. They have no reason

to not to conquer the Tombas because

that's their war aim. And what can Trump

can offer to them uh to stop the war

immediately. What would be what would be

the the message for Russians from your

Lots of uh important things are uh now

on offer and on the table and I believe

that the war will end quickly because of

this and this this will be at least one

blessing in a very uh very difficult

time. Exactly what the settlement will

be I think is now only a question of the

territorial issues uh and that is

whether it is the complete four oblasts

including all of her son and Zaparisia

or whether it is on the contact line and

how all of this will be negotiated. I'm

not in the room of the negotiations so I

can't really say more but the basis will

be there will be territorial

concessions. There will be neutrality.

There will be security guarantees for

Ukraine for all parties. Uh there will

be at least with the US an end of the

economic sanctions. Uh but what counts

of course is Europe and Russia. I think

that there are and maybe there will be a

restoration of nuclear arms uh

negotiations which would be

extraordinarily positive.

I think that there are

tremendously important issues for Europe

to negotiate directly with Russia. And

so I would urge uh President Costa and

the leadership of Europe to open direct

discussions with President Putin because

European security is on the table. I

know the Russian leaders, many of them

quite well. Uh they are good negotiators

and uh you should negotiate with them.

uh and you should negotiate well with

them. Uh

I would ask them some questions. Uh I

would ask them what are the security

guarantees that can work so that this

war ends permanently?

What are the security guarantees for the

Baltic states? What should be done? Part

of the process of negotiation is

actually to ask the other side about

your concerns. Not just to know what

they know as you think is too true, but

actually to ask we have a real problem.

We have a real worry. What are the

guarantees? Well, I want to know the

answers also. Uh, by the way, I know Mr.

Lavrov, Minister Lavrov for 30 years. I

I regard him as a brilliant foreign

minister. uh talk with him, negotiate

with him, get ideas, put ideas on the

table, put counter ideas on the table.

Uh I don't think all of this can be

settled by pure reason because uh of

oneself. You settle wars by negotiating

and understanding what are the real

issues. And you don't call the other

side a liar when they express their

issues. you work out what the

implications of that are for the mutual

benefit of peace. So the most important

thing is stop the yelling, stop the

wararm mongering and discuss with the

Russian counterparts and don't beg to be

at the table with the United States. You

don't need to be in the room with the

United States. You're Europe. You should

be in the room with Europe and Russia.

If the United States wants to join,

that's fine.

But to beg, no. And by the way,

Europe does not need to have Ukraine in

the room when Europe talks with Russia.

You have a lot of issues, direct issues.

Don't hand over your foreign policy to

anybody. not to the United States, not

to Ukraine, not to Israel.

Keep a European foreign policy. This is

Uh Hans Nohof from the sovereignists

political group in this parliament um

alternative for Germany as political

party. First of all, let me thank you

Mr. Sax for being here and sharing your

ideas with us and be assured that many

of your ideas and of your colleague John

Mshimer have well been received by

political groups here and have been

integrated into our agenda. I widely

share your views. Um yet there's one

question regarding the historical

account that you gave uh where I would

like to go in some detail and this

concerns the beginning of NATO

expansion. Um you um uh uh reported from

uh um the website um what Gorbachov

heard that there are many um quotations

from Ganture for example um that NATO

will not move one inch eastwards. Now

the 2 + 4 treaty has been signed in

September 1990 right in Moscow. So at

that point in time the Warso pact still

existed and countries like Poland,

Hungary and Czecha were not part of the

negotiations for the two and four

treaty. So the Warso pact actually

dissolved in July 1991 and the Soviet

Union dissolved in December 1991.

So nobody who was present in the

negotiations could speak for Poland,

could speak for Hungary, could speak for

Slovakia that they would not try to

become member of NATO once the overall

situation has changed. So the

counterargument um which we have to

counter um is that it was on the will of

these countries of Poland, of Hungary,

of Slovakia that they wanted to join

NATO because of the very history they

had with the Soviet Union. And of course

Russia was still perceived in a way um

as a follower of the Soviet Union. So

I have no doubt of why Hungary, Poland,

Czech Republic,

Slovakia wanted to join NATO. The

question is what is the US doing to make

peace? Because NATO is not a choice of

Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic or

Slovakia. NATO is a US-led military

alliance and the question is how are we

going to establish peace in a reliable way?

way?

If I were uh making uh those decisions

back then, I would have ended NATO

When those countries requested NATO, I

would have explained to them what our

defense secretary, William Perry, said,

what our lead statesman, George Kennan,

said, uh what our final ambassador to

the Soviet Union, Jack Matlock, said. Uh

they said, "Well, we understand your

feelings, but it's not a good idea

because it could provoke a new cold war

with Russia." So that's how I would have

answered it when those countries joined

uh in the first wave. I don't think it

was that consequential in fact except

that it was part of a bigger project and

the project was spelled out already in

1994. There's a very good book by uh

Jonathan Hasslam Harvard University

Press called Hubris which gives a

detailed historical documentation of

step by step what happened. Uh and uh

it's it's really worth reading. Um, so

this is uh now but the point I would

really make is that Ukraine and Georgia

were too far.

This is right up against Russia.

This is in the context of the complete

destabilization of the nuclear

framework. This is in the context of the

US putting in missile systems on

Russia's borders. If you listen to

President Putin over the years,

probably the main thing if you listen

carefully that he's concerned about is

missiles 7 minutes from Moscow is a

decapitation strike.

And this is very real. The US not only

would freak out but did freak out when this happened in the Western Hemisphere.

this happened in the Western Hemisphere. So it's the Cuban missile crisis in

So it's the Cuban missile crisis in reverse.

reverse. And fortunately, Nikita Kruev did not

And fortunately, Nikita Kruev did not stand up and say open door policy of the

stand up and say open door policy of the Warsaw pact.

Warsaw pact. >> We can go wherever we want. Cuba's asked

>> We can go wherever we want. Cuba's asked us, it's none of America's business.

us, it's none of America's business. What Kruev said is war? My god, we don't

What Kruev said is war? My god, we don't want war. We end this crisis. We both

want war. We end this crisis. We both pull back. That's what Kruev and Kennedy

pull back. That's what Kruev and Kennedy decided in the end. So this is the real

decided in the end. So this is the real consequential. Russia even swallowed

consequential. Russia even swallowed with a lot of pain the Baltic states,

with a lot of pain the Baltic states, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and

Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Slovenia. It is Ukraine and Georgia. And

Slovenia. It is Ukraine and Georgia. And it's because of geography. It's because

it's because of geography. It's because of Lord Palmerston. It's because of the

of Lord Palmerston. It's because of the first Crimean War. It's because of the

first Crimean War. It's because of the missile systems that this is the essence

missile systems that this is the essence of why there was this war. Anybody

Thank thank you very much Professor Saxs for coming. Um here um you've mentioned

for coming. Um here um you've mentioned that the European Union needs to

that the European Union needs to formulate its own foreign policy. Um in

formulate its own foreign policy. Um in the past the German Franco alliance was

the past the German Franco alliance was a big driver for for those policies. Now

a big driver for for those policies. Now with the Ukraine war arguably that

with the Ukraine war arguably that receives a crack. Um, do you think that

receives a crack. Um, do you think that in the future when the European Union is

in the future when the European Union is going to formulate this new foreign

going to formulate this new foreign policy that they're going to be again on

policy that they're going to be again on the front seat or uh should it be other

the front seat or uh should it be other other countries or other blocks um

other countries or other blocks um trying to make that change? Thank you

trying to make that change? Thank you very much.

>> Oh, it's hard. It it's hard because uh of course you don't yet have a a

of course you don't yet have a a constitution for Europe which really

constitution for Europe which really underpins a European foreign policy

underpins a European foreign policy and it can't be by unanimity.

and it can't be by unanimity. There has to be a structure in which

There has to be a structure in which Europe can speak as Europe even with

Europe can speak as Europe even with some uh dissent but with the European

some uh dissent but with the European policy. I don't want to oversimplify how

policy. I don't want to oversimplify how to get there exactly but even with the

to get there exactly but even with the structures you have you could do a lot

structures you have you could do a lot better with negotiating directly. The

better with negotiating directly. The first rule is your diplomats should be

first rule is your diplomats should be diplomats not secretaries of war.

Honestly, that would go halfway at least to where you want to go.

to where you want to go. A diplomat is a very special kind of

A diplomat is a very special kind of talent. A diplomat is trained to sit

talent. A diplomat is trained to sit together with the other side and to

together with the other side and to listen, to shake hands, to smile, and to

listen, to shake hands, to smile, and to be pleasant. It's very hard. It's a

be pleasant. It's very hard. It's a skill. It's training. It's a profession.

skill. It's training. It's a profession. It's not a game.

It's not a game. You need

You need that kind of diplomacy.

that kind of diplomacy. I'm sorry. We are not hearing anything

I'm sorry. We are not hearing anything like that.

I'll just make a couple complaints. First, Europe is not NATO. As I said,

First, Europe is not NATO. As I said, I thought Stolenberg was the worst, but

I thought Stolenberg was the worst, but I was wrong.

It just keeps getting worse. Could someone in NATO stop talking,

Could someone in NATO stop talking, for God's sake, about more war?

And could NATO stop speaking for Europe? and Europe, stop thinking it's NATO.

and Europe, stop thinking it's NATO. This is the first absolute point.

This is the first absolute point. Second, I'm sorry, but your high

Second, I'm sorry, but your high representative vice presidents need to

representative vice presidents need to become diplomats.

Diplomacy means going to Moscow, inviting your Russian counterpart here,

inviting your Russian counterpart here, discussing

discussing this doesn't happen till now.

this doesn't happen till now. So this is really

So this is really my point now. I

my point now. I believe that Europe should become more

believe that Europe should become more integrated and more unified in the years

integrated and more unified in the years ahead. I'm a strong believer in

ahead. I'm a strong believer in subsidiarity.

subsidiarity. So, we were discussing I don't think

So, we were discussing I don't think housing policy is really Europe's main

housing policy is really Europe's main issue. I think this can be handled at

issue. I think this can be handled at the local level or at the national

the local level or at the national level. I don't see it as a European

level. I don't see it as a European issue. But I don't see foreign policy as

issue. But I don't see foreign policy as being a 27 country issue. I see it being

being a 27 country issue. I see it being as a European issue and I see security

as a European issue and I see security being at a European level. So I think

being at a European level. So I think things need to be readjusted, but I'd

things need to be readjusted, but I'd like to see more Europe for truly

like to see more Europe for truly European issues and maybe less Europe

European issues and maybe less Europe for things that are properly subsidiary

for things that are properly subsidiary to Europe at the national and the local

to Europe at the national and the local level. And I hope that uh such an

level. And I hope that uh such an evolution can take place. You know when

evolution can take place. You know when the world talks about great powers right

the world talks about great powers right now they talk about US, Russia, China, I

now they talk about US, Russia, China, I include India and I really want to

include India and I really want to include Europe and I really want to

include Europe and I really want to include Africa as an African Union

include Africa as an African Union and I want that to happen. But you'll

and I want that to happen. But you'll notice on the list, Europe doesn't show

notice on the list, Europe doesn't show up right now. Uh, and this is because

up right now. Uh, and this is because there is no European foreign policy.

there is no European foreign policy. >> Okay.

Thank you very much and thank you very much professor for this very courageous

much professor for this very courageous speech very clear speech also that you

speech very clear speech also that you made. I'm an MEP from Luxembourg. Uh my

made. I'm an MEP from Luxembourg. Uh my question is the following. What are the

question is the following. What are the long-term consequences of this lost war?

long-term consequences of this lost war? We lost the war. Now we have an

We lost the war. Now we have an uncertain future for NATO. We have also

uncertain future for NATO. We have also clearly and you refer to it

clearly and you refer to it imaginization of Europe. we have um a

imaginization of Europe. we have um a strengthening of the BRICS countries

strengthening of the BRICS countries which can be rivals in many uh respects.

which can be rivals in many uh respects. So will there be a future for a

So will there be a future for a collective west over the next 20 or 30

collective west over the next 20 or 30 years? Thank you very much.

>> I I don't believe there is a collective west. Uh I believe that there is a

west. Uh I believe that there is a United States and Europe that are uh in

United States and Europe that are uh in some areas uh in parallel interests and

some areas uh in parallel interests and in many areas not in parallel interest.

in many areas not in parallel interest. I I want Europe to lead uh

I I want Europe to lead uh sustainable development,

sustainable development, climate transformation,

climate transformation, global decency.

global decency. I believe if the world world looked more

I believe if the world world looked more like Europe, it'd be a happier, more

like Europe, it'd be a happier, more peaceful, safer world and long longevity

peaceful, safer world and long longevity and better food. By the way, uh but uh

and better food. By the way, uh but uh just saying um in any event,

just saying um in any event, Europe has a vocation that is rather

Europe has a vocation that is rather different and Europe, in fact, he says

different and Europe, in fact, he says the eastward expansion of Europe and not

the eastward expansion of Europe and not just Europe, but NATO. This was a plan,

just Europe, but NATO. This was a plan, a project.

a project. And he explains how Russia will never

And he explains how Russia will never align with China.

align with China. Unthinkable.

Unthinkable. Russia will never align with Iran.

Russia will never align with Iran. Russia has no vocation other than the

Russia has no vocation other than the European vocation. So as Europe moves

European vocation. So as Europe moves east, there's nothing Russia can do

east, there's nothing Russia can do about it.

about it. So says yet another American strategist.

So says yet another American strategist. Is it any question why we're in war all

Is it any question why we're in war all the time?

the time? Because one thing about America is we

Because one thing about America is we always know what our counterparts are

always know what our counterparts are going to do and we always get it wrong.

going to do and we always get it wrong. And one reason we always get it wrong is

And one reason we always get it wrong is that in game theory that the American

that in game theory that the American strategists play, you don't actually

strategists play, you don't actually talk to the other side. You just know

talk to the other side. You just know what the other side's strategy is.

what the other side's strategy is. That's it's wonderful. It saves so much

That's it's wonderful. It saves so much time.

time. You don't need any diplomacy.

So this project began and we had a continuity of government for 30 years

continuity of government for 30 years until maybe yesterday perhaps.

30 years of a project. Ukraine and Georgia were the keys to the project.

Georgia were the keys to the project. Why? Because America learned everything

Why? Because America learned everything it knows from the British.

it knows from the British. And so we are

And so we are the wannabe British Empire

the wannabe British Empire and what the British Empire understood

and what the British Empire understood in 1853.

in 1853. Mr. Palmer, Lord Palmerston, excuse me,

Mr. Palmer, Lord Palmerston, excuse me, is that you surround Russia in the Black

is that you surround Russia in the Black Sea and you deny Russia access to the

Sea and you deny Russia access to the Eastern Mediterranean.

Eastern Mediterranean. And all you're watching is an American

And all you're watching is an American project to do that in the 21st century.

The idea was that there would be Ukraine,

Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, and Georgia

Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, and Georgia as the Black Sea literal

as the Black Sea literal that would deprive Russia of any

that would deprive Russia of any international

international status by blocking

status by blocking the Black Sea and essentially by

the Black Sea and essentially by neutralizing Russia as more than a local

neutralizing Russia as more than a local power.

power. Brjinski is completely clear about this

Brjinski is completely clear about this and before Brjinski there was Mckinder

and before Brjinski there was Mckinder and who owns the island of the world

and who owns the island of the world owns the world. So this project goes

owns the world. So this project goes back a long time. I think it goes back

back a long time. I think it goes back basically to Palmerston

in 19 and again I've lived through every administration. I've known these

administration. I've known these presidents. I've known their teams.

presidents. I've known their teams. Nothing changed much from Clinton to

Nothing changed much from Clinton to Bush to Obama to Trump one to Biden.

Bush to Obama to Trump one to Biden. Maybe they got worse step by step.

Maybe they got worse step by step. Biden was the worst in my view. Uh maybe

Biden was the worst in my view. Uh maybe also because he was not Compass Menus

also because he was not Compass Menus for the last couple of years. And I say

for the last couple of years. And I say that seriously, not as a snarky remark.

that seriously, not as a snarky remark. The American political system is a

The American political system is a system of image. It's a system of media

system of image. It's a system of media manipulation every day. It is a PR

manipulation every day. It is a PR system. And so you could have a

system. And so you could have a president that basically doesn't

president that basically doesn't function and have that in power for two

function and have that in power for two years and actually have that president

years and actually have that president run for reelection. And one damn thing

run for reelection. And one damn thing is he had to stand on a stage for 90

is he had to stand on a stage for 90 minutes by himself and that was the end

minutes by himself and that was the end of it. Had it not been that mistake, he

of it. Had it not been that mistake, he would have gone on to have his candidacy

would have gone on to have his candidacy whether he was sleeping after 400 p.m.

whether he was sleeping after 400 p.m. in the afternoon or not.

in the afternoon or not. So this is actually the reality.

So this is actually the reality. Everybody goes along with it. It's

Everybody goes along with it. It's impolite to say anything that I'm saying

impolite to say anything that I'm saying because we don't speak the truth about

because we don't speak the truth about almost anything in this world right now.

almost anything in this world right now. So this project went on from the 1990s.

So this project went on from the 1990s. Bombing Bgrade 78 straight days in 1999

Bombing Bgrade 78 straight days in 1999 was part of this project. Splitting

was part of this project. Splitting apart the country when borders are

apart the country when borders are sacrosanked, aren't they? Indeed, except

sacrosanked, aren't they? Indeed, except for Kosovo.

for Kosovo. That's fine because borders are

That's fine because borders are sacrosanked except when America changes

sacrosanked except when America changes them.

them. Sudan was another related project.

Sudan was another related project. The South Sudan rebellion. Did that just

The South Sudan rebellion. Did that just happen because South Sudin rebelled?

happen because South Sudin rebelled? Or can I give you the CIA playbook

Or can I give you the CIA playbook to please understand

to please understand as grown-ups what this is about?

Military events are costly. They require equipment, training,

equipment, training, base camps, intelligence,

base camps, intelligence, finance. That comes from big powers.

finance. That comes from big powers. That doesn't come from local

That doesn't come from local insurrections.

South Sudan did not defeat North Sudan or Sudan

or Sudan in a tribal battle.

in a tribal battle. It was a US project.

It was a US project. I would go often to Nairobi and meet US

I would go often to Nairobi and meet US military or senators or others with deep

military or senators or others with deep interests in Sudan's politics.

interests in Sudan's politics. This was part of the game of

This was part of the game of unipolarity.

unipolarity. So the NATO enlargement, as you know,

So the NATO enlargement, as you know, started in 1999 with Hungary, Poland,

started in 1999 with Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic,

and the Czech Republic, and Russia was extremely unhappy about

and Russia was extremely unhappy about it.

it. But these were countries still far from

But these were countries still far from the border and Russia protested

the border and Russia protested but of course to no avail. Then George

but of course to no avail. Then George Bush Jr. came in when 9/11 occurred.

Bush Jr. came in when 9/11 occurred. President Putin pledged all support

President Putin pledged all support and then the US uh decided in September

and then the US uh decided in September 20th,

2001 that it would launch seven wars in 5

that it would launch seven wars in 5 years. And you can listen to General

years. And you can listen to General Wesley Clark online talk about that. He

Wesley Clark online talk about that. He was NATO Supreme Commander in 1999.

was NATO Supreme Commander in 1999. He went to the Pentagon on September

He went to the Pentagon on September 20th, 2001. He was handed the paper

20th, 2001. He was handed the paper explaining seven wars. These, by the

explaining seven wars. These, by the way, were Netanyahu's wars. The idea was

way, were Netanyahu's wars. The idea was partly to clean up old Soviet allies and

partly to clean up old Soviet allies and partly to take out supporters of Hamas

partly to take out supporters of Hamas and Hezbollah

and Hezbollah because Netanyahu's idea was there will

because Netanyahu's idea was there will be one state. Thank you. Only one state.

be one state. Thank you. Only one state. It will be Israel. Israel will control

It will be Israel. Israel will control all of the territory and anyone that

all of the territory and anyone that objects we will overthrow. Not we

objects we will overthrow. Not we exactly our friend the United States.

exactly our friend the United States. That's US policy until this morning.

That's US policy until this morning. We don't know whether it will change.

We don't know whether it will change. Now the only wrinkle is that maybe the

Now the only wrinkle is that maybe the US will own Gaza instead of Israel

US will own Gaza instead of Israel owning Gaza.

owning Gaza. But the idea has been around at least

But the idea has been around at least for 25 years.

for 25 years. It actually goes back to a document

It actually goes back to a document called clean break that Netanyahu and

called clean break that Netanyahu and his American political team put together

his American political team put together in 1996 to end the idea of the two-state

in 1996 to end the idea of the two-state solution.

solution. You can also find it online.

You can also find it online. So these are projects. These are

So these are projects. These are long-term events. These aren't is it

long-term events. These aren't is it Clinton, is it Bush, is it Obama.

Clinton, is it Bush, is it Obama. That's the boring way to look at

That's the boring way to look at American politics as the dayto-day game.

American politics as the dayto-day game. But that's not what American politics

But that's not what American politics is.

is. So the next round of NATO enlargement

So the next round of NATO enlargement came in 2004 with seven more countries.

came in 2004 with seven more countries. the three Baltic states, Romania,

the three Baltic states, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia, and Slovakia.

Bulgaria, Slovenia, and Slovakia. At this point, Russia was pretty damn

At this point, Russia was pretty damn upset.

upset. This was a complete violation of the

This was a complete violation of the post war agreed

post war agreed with German reunification.

with German reunification. Essentially, it was a

Essentially, it was a it it was a fundamental trick or

it it was a fundamental trick or defection of the US from a cooperative

defection of the US from a cooperative arrangement

arrangement is what it amounted to because they

is what it amounted to because they believe in uniolarity.

So, as everybody recalls because we just had the Munich Security Conference last

had the Munich Security Conference last week in 2007, President Putin said,

week in 2007, President Putin said, "Stop. Enough.

"Stop. Enough. Enough. stop now.

Enough. stop now. And of course, what that meant was in

And of course, what that meant was in 2008, the United States jammed down

2008, the United States jammed down Europe's throat enlargement of NATO to

Europe's throat enlargement of NATO to Ukraine and to Georgia. This is a

Ukraine and to Georgia. This is a long-term project.

long-term project. I listened to Mr. Sakashi in New York in

I listened to Mr. Sakashi in New York in May of 2008, and I walked out, called

May of 2008, and I walked out, called Sonia, and said, "This man's crazy." And

Sonia, and said, "This man's crazy." And a month later, a war broke out because

a month later, a war broke out because the United States told this guy, "We

the United States told this guy, "We save Georgia." And he stands at the

save Georgia." And he stands at the Council on Foreign Relations says,

Council on Foreign Relations says, "Georgia's in the center of Europe."

"Georgia's in the center of Europe." Well, it ain't, ladies and gentlemen.

Well, it ain't, ladies and gentlemen. It's not in the center of Europe.

It's not in the center of Europe. And the most recent events are not

And the most recent events are not helpful for Georgia for its safety and

helpful for Georgia for its safety and your MPs going there or MEPs going there

your MPs going there or MEPs going there and European politicians. That gets

and European politicians. That gets Georgia destroyed. That doesn't save

Georgia destroyed. That doesn't save Georgia. That gets Georgia destroyed.

Georgia. That gets Georgia destroyed. Completely destroyed. In 2008, as

Completely destroyed. In 2008, as everybody knows, our former CIA

everybody knows, our former CIA director, William Burns, sent a long

director, William Burns, sent a long message back to Condisa Rice. Niet means

message back to Condisa Rice. Niet means net about expansion. This we know from

net about expansion. This we know from Julian Assange because believe me not

Julian Assange because believe me not one word is told to the American people

one word is told to the American people about anything or to you or by any of

about anything or to you or by any of your newspapers these days.

your newspapers these days. So we have Julian Assange to thank but

So we have Julian Assange to thank but we can read the memo in detail.

we can read the memo in detail. As you know, Victor Yanukovich was

As you know, Victor Yanukovich was elected in 2010 on the platform of

elected in 2010 on the platform of neutrality. Russia had no territorial

neutrality. Russia had no territorial interests or designs in Ukraine at all.

interests or designs in Ukraine at all. I know I was there during these pe these

I know I was there during these pe these years. What Russia was negotiating was a

years. What Russia was negotiating was a 25-year lease to 20 42

25-year lease to 20 42 for Savasto naval base. That's it.

for Savasto naval base. That's it. Not for Crimea, not for the Donbas.

Not for Crimea, not for the Donbas. Nothing like that.

Nothing like that. This idea that Putin reconstructing

This idea that Putin reconstructing the Russian Empire, this is childish

the Russian Empire, this is childish propaganda. Excuse me. If anyone knows

propaganda. Excuse me. If anyone knows the daytoday and year-to-year history,

the daytoday and year-to-year history, this is childish stuff. Childish stuff

this is childish stuff. Childish stuff seems to work better than adult stuff.

seems to work better than adult stuff. So, no designs at all. The United States

So, no designs at all. The United States decided this man must be overthrown.

decided this man must be overthrown. It's called a regime change operation.

It's called a regime change operation. There have been about a hundred of them

There have been about a hundred of them by the United States. Many in your

by the United States. Many in your countries

countries and many all over the world.

and many all over the world. That's what the CIA does for a living.

That's what the CIA does for a living. Okay? Please know it. It's a very

Okay? Please know it. It's a very unusual kind of foreign policy.

unusual kind of foreign policy. But in America, if you don't like the

But in America, if you don't like the other side, you don't negotiate with

other side, you don't negotiate with them, you try to overthrow them,

them, you try to overthrow them, preferably covertly.

preferably covertly. If it doesn't work covertly, you do it

If it doesn't work covertly, you do it overtly.

overtly. You always say, "It's not our fault.

You always say, "It's not our fault. They're the aggressor. They're the other

They're the aggressor. They're the other side. They're Hitler." That comes up

side. They're Hitler." That comes up every two or three years. Whether it's

every two or three years. Whether it's Saddam Hussein, whether it's Assad,

Saddam Hussein, whether it's Assad, whether it's Putin, that's very

whether it's Putin, that's very convenient.

convenient. That's the only foreign policy

That's the only foreign policy explanation the American people are ever

explanation the American people are ever given anywhere.

given anywhere. Well, we're facing Munich 1938. Well,

Well, we're facing Munich 1938. Well, we're facing Munich 1938. Can't talk to

we're facing Munich 1938. Can't talk to the other side. They're evil, implacable

the other side. They're evil, implacable foes.

foes. That's the only model of foreign policy

That's the only model of foreign policy we ever hear from our mass media and the

we ever hear from our mass media and the mass media repeats it entirely because

mass media repeats it entirely because it's completely suborned by the US

it's completely suborned by the US government.

government. Now

Now in 2014

in 2014 the US

the US worked actively to overthrow Yanukovich.

worked actively to overthrow Yanukovich. Everybody knows the phone call

Everybody knows the phone call intercepted by my Columbia University

intercepted by my Columbia University colleague Victoria Nuland

colleague Victoria Nuland and the US Ambassador Peter Pat.

and the US Ambassador Peter Pat. You don't get better evidence. The

You don't get better evidence. The Russians intercepted her call and they

Russians intercepted her call and they put it on the internet. Listen to it.

put it on the internet. Listen to it. It's fascinating.

It's fascinating. I know all these people.

I know all these people. By the way, by doing that, they all got

By the way, by doing that, they all got promoted in the Biden administration.

promoted in the Biden administration. That's the job. Now, when the Maidan

That's the job. Now, when the Maidan occurred, I was called immediately. Oh,

occurred, I was called immediately. Oh, Professor Saxs, the new Ukrainian prime

Professor Saxs, the new Ukrainian prime minister would like to see you to talk

minister would like to see you to talk about the economic crisis

about the economic crisis because I'm pretty good at that.

because I'm pretty good at that. And so I flew to Kiev

And so I flew to Kiev and I was walked around the Maidan

and I was walked around the Maidan and I was told how the US paid the money

and I was told how the US paid the money for all the people around the Maidan.

for all the people around the Maidan. Spontaneous

Spontaneous revolution of dignity.

revolution of dignity. Ladies and gentlemen, please.

Ladies and gentlemen, please. Where do all these media outlets come

Where do all these media outlets come from? Where does all this organization

from? Where does all this organization come from? Where do all these buses come

come from? Where do all these buses come from? Where do all these people called

from? Where do all these people called in come from? Are you kidding? This is

in come from? Are you kidding? This is organized effort

and it's not a secret

it's not a secret except to citizens of Europe and the

except to citizens of Europe and the United States. Everyone else understands

United States. Everyone else understands it quite clearly.

it quite clearly. Then came Minsk

Then came Minsk and especially Minsk 2 which by the way

and especially Minsk 2 which by the way was modeled on South Terrollian autonomy

was modeled on South Terrollian autonomy and the Belgians could have related to

and the Belgians could have related to mitzu very well. It said there should be

mitzu very well. It said there should be autonomy for the Russianspeaking regions

autonomy for the Russianspeaking regions in the east of Ukraine.

in the east of Ukraine. It was supported unanimously by the UN

It was supported unanimously by the UN Security Council.

Security Council. The United States

The United States and Ukraine decided it was not to be

and Ukraine decided it was not to be enforced.

enforced. Germany and France, which were the

Germany and France, which were the guarantors of the Normandy process,

guarantors of the Normandy process, let it go.

let it go. And it was absolutely another direct

And it was absolutely another direct American unipolar action with Europe as

American unipolar action with Europe as usual playing completely

usual playing completely useless subsidiary role even though it

useless subsidiary role even though it was a guarantor of the agreement.

was a guarantor of the agreement. Trump one raised the armaments.

Trump one raised the armaments. There were many thousands of deaths in

There were many thousands of deaths in the shelling by Ukraine in the Donbas.

the shelling by Ukraine in the Donbas. There was no Minsk 2 agreement.

There was no Minsk 2 agreement. And then Biden came into office. And

And then Biden came into office. And again, I know all these people. I used

again, I know all these people. I used to be a member of the Democratic party.

to be a member of the Democratic party. I now am strictly sworn to be a member

I now am strictly sworn to be a member of no party

of no party because both are the same anyway.

because both are the same anyway. And because this is I the Democrats

And because this is I the Democrats became complete wararm mongers over time

became complete wararm mongers over time and there not was not one voice about

and there not was not one voice about peace just like most of your

peace just like most of your parliamentarians the same way.

parliamentarians the same way. So at the end of 1991,

Putin put on the table a last effort in two security agreement drafts. One with

two security agreement drafts. One with Europe and one with the United States.

Europe and one with the United States. The US put on the table December 15th n

The US put on the table December 15th n uh 2021.

uh 2021. I had an hour call with Jake Sullivan in

I had an hour call with Jake Sullivan in the White House begging,

the White House begging, Jake, avoid the war.

Jake, avoid the war. You can avoid the war. All you have to

You can avoid the war. All you have to do is say NATO will not enlarge to

do is say NATO will not enlarge to Ukraine.

Ukraine. And he said to me, "Oh, NATO's not going

And he said to me, "Oh, NATO's not going to enlarge to Ukraine. Don't worry about

to enlarge to Ukraine. Don't worry about it." I said, "Jake, say it publicly."

it." I said, "Jake, say it publicly." No, no, no. We can't say it publicly.

No, no, no. We can't say it publicly. said, "Jake, you're going to have a war

said, "Jake, you're going to have a war over something that isn't even going to

over something that isn't even going to happen."

happen." He said, ' Don't worry, Jeff. There will

He said, ' Don't worry, Jeff. There will be no war.

be no war. These are not very bright people.

These are not very bright people. I'm telling you, if I can give you my

I'm telling you, if I can give you my honest view, they're not very bright

honest view, they're not very bright people. And I've dealt with them for

people. And I've dealt with them for more than 40 years.

more than 40 years. They talk to themselves. They don't talk

They talk to themselves. They don't talk to anybody else. They play game theory.

to anybody else. They play game theory. In non-ooperative game theory, you don't

In non-ooperative game theory, you don't talk to the other side. You just make

talk to the other side. You just make your strategy.

your strategy. This is the essence of game theory.

It's not negotiation theory. It's not peacemaking theory.

peacemaking theory. It is unilateral non-ooperative

It is unilateral non-ooperative theory. If you know formal game theory,

theory. If you know formal game theory, that's what they play. It started at the

that's what they play. It started at the Rand Corporation. That's what they still

Rand Corporation. That's what they still play. In 2019, there's a paper by Rand,

play. In 2019, there's a paper by Rand, how do we extend Russia? Do you know

how do we extend Russia? Do you know they wrote a paper which Biden followed?

they wrote a paper which Biden followed? How do we annoy Russia?

How do we annoy Russia? That's literally the strategy. How do we

That's literally the strategy. How do we annoy Russia? We're trying to provoke

annoy Russia? We're trying to provoke it, trying to make it break apart, maybe

it, trying to make it break apart, maybe have regime change, maybe have unrest,

have regime change, maybe have unrest, maybe have economic crisis.

maybe have economic crisis. That's what you call your ally.

That's what you call your ally. Are you kidding?

So, I had a long and frustrating phone call with Sullivan.

phone call with Sullivan. I was standing out in the freezing cold.

I was standing out in the freezing cold. I happened to be h trying to have a ski

I happened to be h trying to have a ski day

day and there I was. Jake, don't have the

and there I was. Jake, don't have the war.

war. Oh, there'll be no war. Jeff,

Oh, there'll be no war. Jeff, we know a lot of what happened the next

we know a lot of what happened the next month, which is that they refuse to

month, which is that they refuse to negotiate.

negotiate. The stupidest idea of NATO is the

The stupidest idea of NATO is the so-called open door policy.

so-called open door policy. Are you kidding? NATO reserves the right

Are you kidding? NATO reserves the right to go where it wants without any

to go where it wants without any neighbor having any say whatsoever?

neighbor having any say whatsoever? Well, I tell the Mexicans and the

Well, I tell the Mexicans and the Canadians, don't try it.

Canadians, don't try it. You know,

You know, Trump may want to take over Canada. So,

Trump may want to take over Canada. So, Canada could say to China, why don't you

Canada could say to China, why don't you build a military base uh in uh in in

build a military base uh in uh in in Ontario?

Ontario? I wouldn't advise it.

I wouldn't advise it. And the United States would not say,

And the United States would not say, well, it's an open door. That's their

well, it's an open door. That's their business. I mean, they can do what they

business. I mean, they can do what they want. That's not our business.

want. That's not our business. But grown-ups in Europe, repeat this

But grown-ups in Europe, repeat this in Europe, in your commission, your high

in Europe, in your commission, your high representative.

representative. This is nonsense stuff. This is not even

This is nonsense stuff. This is not even baby geopolitics.

This is just not thinking at all. So, the war started. What was Putin's

So, the war started. What was Putin's intention in the war?

intention in the war? I can tell you what his intention was.

I can tell you what his intention was. It was to force Zalinski to negotiate.

It was to force Zalinski to negotiate. Neutrality.

Neutrality. And that happened within 7 days of the

And that happened within 7 days of the start of the invasion.

start of the invasion. You should understand this. Not the

You should understand this. Not the propaganda that's written about this.

propaganda that's written about this. Oh, that they failed and he was going to

Oh, that they failed and he was going to take over Ukraine.

take over Ukraine. Come on, ladies and gentlemen,

Come on, ladies and gentlemen, understand something basic.

understand something basic. The idea was to keep NATO, and what is

The idea was to keep NATO, and what is NATO? It's the United States,

NATO? It's the United States, off of Russia's border.

off of Russia's border. No more, no less.

No more, no less. I should add

I should add one very important point. Why

one very important point. Why are they so interested? first because if

are they so interested? first because if China or Russia decided to have a

China or Russia decided to have a military base on the Rio Grand or in uh

military base on the Rio Grand or in uh the Canadian border, not only would the

the Canadian border, not only would the United States freak out, we'd have war

United States freak out, we'd have war within about 10 minutes,

within about 10 minutes, but because the United States

but because the United States unilaterally abandoned the

unilaterally abandoned the anti-bballistic missile treaty in 2002

anti-bballistic missile treaty in 2002 and ended the nuclear arms control

and ended the nuclear arms control framework by doing So, and this is

framework by doing So, and this is extremely important to understand

extremely important to understand the nuclear arms control framework is

the nuclear arms control framework is based on trying to block a first strike.

based on trying to block a first strike. The ABM treaty was a critical component

The ABM treaty was a critical component of that. The US unilaterally walked out

of that. The US unilaterally walked out of the ABM treaty in 2002.

of the ABM treaty in 2002. It blew a Russian gasket. So everything

It blew a Russian gasket. So everything I've been describing is in the context

I've been describing is in the context of the destruction of the nuclear

of the destruction of the nuclear framework as well. And starting in 2010,

framework as well. And starting in 2010, the US put in Aegis missile systems in

the US put in Aegis missile systems in Poland and then in Romania.

Poland and then in Romania. And Russia doesn't like that. And one of

And Russia doesn't like that. And one of the issues on the table in December and

the issues on the table in December and January, December 2021, January 2022 was

January, December 2021, January 2022 was does the United States claim the right

does the United States claim the right to put missile systems in Ukraine?

to put missile systems in Ukraine? And Blinken told Lavrov in January 2022,

And Blinken told Lavrov in January 2022, the United States reserves the right to

the United States reserves the right to put missile missile systems wherever it

put missile missile systems wherever it wants.

That's your puditive ally.

puditive ally. And now let's put intermediate missile

And now let's put intermediate missile systems back in Germany. The United

systems back in Germany. The United States walked out of the INF treaty

States walked out of the INF treaty unilaterally in 2019. There is no

unilaterally in 2019. There is no nuclear arms framework right now. None.

When Zalinski said in seven days, let's negotiate.

negotiate. I know the details of this

I know the details of this exquisitly

exquisitly because I've talked to all the parties

because I've talked to all the parties in detail.

in detail. Within a couple of weeks, there was a

Within a couple of weeks, there was a document exchanged

document exchanged that President Putin had approved that

that President Putin had approved that Lavrov had presented that was being

Lavrov had presented that was being managed by the Turkish mediators. I flew

managed by the Turkish mediators. I flew to Anchora to listen in detail to what

to Anchora to listen in detail to what the mediators were doing.

the mediators were doing. Ukraine walked away unilaterally from a

Ukraine walked away unilaterally from a near agreement.

near agreement. Why? Because the United States told them

Why? Because the United States told them to.

to. Because the UK

Because the UK added icing to the cake by having Bojo

added icing to the cake by having Bojo go in early April

go in early April to Ukraine and explain and he has

to Ukraine and explain and he has recently and if your security is in the

recently and if your security is in the hands of Boris Johnson, God help us all.

hands of Boris Johnson, God help us all. Keith Starmer turns out to be even

Keith Starmer turns out to be even worse.

worse. It's unimaginable, but it is true.

Boris Johnson has explained, and you can look it up

look it up on the website, that what's at stake

on the website, that what's at stake here is Western Hegemany,

here is Western Hegemany, not Ukraine, Western Hegemany.

Michael and I met at the Vatican with a group in the spring of 2022

group in the spring of 2022 where we wrote a document explaining

where we wrote a document explaining nothing good can come out of this war

nothing good can come out of this war for Ukraine. Negotiate now because

for Ukraine. Negotiate now because anything that takes time will mean

anything that takes time will mean massive amounts of deaths, risk of

massive amounts of deaths, risk of nuclear escalation, and likely loss of

nuclear escalation, and likely loss of the war.

the war. I wouldn't change one word from what we

I wouldn't change one word from what we wrote then. Nothing was wrong in that

wrote then. Nothing was wrong in that document. And since that document, since

document. And since that document, since the US talked the negotiators away from

the US talked the negotiators away from the table,

the table, about a million Ukrainians have died or

about a million Ukrainians have died or been severely wounded.

been severely wounded. And the American senators who are as

And the American senators who are as nasty and cynical and corrupt as

nasty and cynical and corrupt as imaginable

imaginable say this is wonderful expenditure of our

say this is wonderful expenditure of our money because no Americans are dying.

money because no Americans are dying. It's the pure proxy war. One of our

It's the pure proxy war. One of our senators nearby me, uh, Blumenthal

senators nearby me, uh, Blumenthal says this out loud.

says this out loud. Mitt Romney says this out loud. It's

Mitt Romney says this out loud. It's best money America can spend. No

best money America can spend. No Americans are dying.

Americans are dying. It's unreal.

It's unreal. Now, just to bring us up to yesterday,

Now, just to bring us up to yesterday, this failed. This project failed. The

this failed. This project failed. The idea of the project was that Russia

idea of the project was that Russia would fold its hand.

would fold its hand. The idea all along was Russia can't

The idea all along was Russia can't resist. As Ziggn Bjinski explained in

resist. As Ziggn Bjinski explained in 1997,

1997, the Americans thought we have the upper

the Americans thought we have the upper hand.

hand. We're going to win because we're going

We're going to win because we're going to bluff them. They're not really going

to bluff them. They're not really going to fight. They're not really going to

to fight. They're not really going to mobilize.

mobilize. The nuclear option of cutting them out

The nuclear option of cutting them out of Swift,

of Swift, that's going to do them in. The economic

that's going to do them in. The economic sanctions, that's going to do them in.

sanctions, that's going to do them in. The Himars, that's going to do them in.

The Himars, that's going to do them in. The Attackums, the F-16s.

Honestly, I've listened to this for 70 years. I've listened to it as

years. I've listened to it as semiunderstanding, I'd say, for uh about

semiunderstanding, I'd say, for uh about 56 years. They speak nonsense every day.

56 years. They speak nonsense every day. My country,

My country, my government,

my government, this is so familiar to me.

this is so familiar to me. completely familiar. I begged the

completely familiar. I begged the Ukrainians and I had a track record with

Ukrainians and I had a track record with the Ukrainians. I advised the

the Ukrainians. I advised the Ukrainians. I'm not anti- Ukrainian. I'm

Ukrainians. I'm not anti- Ukrainian. I'm pro- Ukrainian completely. I said, "Save

pro- Ukrainian completely. I said, "Save your lives. Save your sovereignty. Save

your lives. Save your sovereignty. Save your territory. Be neutral. Don't listen

your territory. Be neutral. Don't listen to the Americans."

to the Americans." I repeated to them the famous adage of

I repeated to them the famous adage of Henry Kissinger that to be an enemy of

Henry Kissinger that to be an enemy of the United States is dangerous but to be

the United States is dangerous but to be a friend is fatal.

a friend is fatal. Okay, so let me repeat that for Europe.

Okay, so let me repeat that for Europe. To be an enemy of the United States is

To be an enemy of the United States is dangerous but to be a friend is fatal.

So let me now finalize a few words about Trump.

Trump does not want the losing hand. This is why

This is why it is more likely than not this war will

it is more likely than not this war will end

end because Trump and President Putin will

because Trump and President Putin will agree to end the war.

agree to end the war. If Europe does all its great

If Europe does all its great wararmongering,

wararmongering, it doesn't matter. The war is ending.

it doesn't matter. The war is ending. So get it out of your system.

So get it out of your system. Please tell your colleagues

Please tell your colleagues it's over.

it's over. And it's over because Trump doesn't want

And it's over because Trump doesn't want to carry a loser.

to carry a loser. That's it.

That's it. It's not some great morality. He doesn't

It's not some great morality. He doesn't want to carry a loser. This is a loser.

want to carry a loser. This is a loser. The one that will be saved by the

The one that will be saved by the negotiations taking place right now is

negotiations taking place right now is Ukraine.

Ukraine. Second is Europe. Your stock markets

Second is Europe. Your stock markets rising in recent days, by the horrible

rising in recent days, by the horrible news of negotiations. I know this has

news of negotiations. I know this has been met with the sheer horror in these

been met with the sheer horror in these chambers,

chambers, but this is the best news

but this is the best news that you could get.

that you could get. Now, I encouraged,

Now, I encouraged, they don't listen to me, but I tried to

they don't listen to me, but I tried to reach out to some of the European

reach out to some of the European leaders. Most don't want to hear

leaders. Most don't want to hear anything from me at all.

anything from me at all. But I said,

But I said, don't go to Kiev.

don't go to Kiev. Go to Moscow.

Go to Moscow. Discuss with your counterparts.

Discuss with your counterparts. Are you kidding? your Europe, your $450

Are you kidding? your Europe, your $450 million people, your 20 trillion

million people, your 20 trillion economy,

economy, you should be the main economic trading

you should be the main economic trading partner of Russia, its natural links.

partner of Russia, its natural links. By the way, if anyone would like to

By the way, if anyone would like to discuss how the US blew up Nordstream,

discuss how the US blew up Nordstream, I'd be happy to talk about that.

So the Trump administration is imperialist

the Trump administration is imperialist at heart.

at heart. It is a great powers

It is a great powers dominate the world.

dominate the world. It is we will do what we want when we

It is we will do what we want when we can.

can. We will be better than a scesscent

Biden and we'll cut our losses where we have to.

have to. There are several war zones in the

There are several war zones in the world, the Middle East being another. We

world, the Middle East being another. We don't know what will happen with that.

don't know what will happen with that. Again, if Europe had a proper policy,

Again, if Europe had a proper policy, you could stop that war. I'll explain

you could stop that war. I'll explain how.

how. thought

thought war with China is also a possibility.

war with China is also a possibility. So, I'm not saying that we're at the new

So, I'm not saying that we're at the new age of peace,

age of peace, but we are in a uh

but we are in a uh very uh different kind of politics right

very uh different kind of politics right now.

now. And Europe should have a foreign policy

And Europe should have a foreign policy and not just a foreign policy of

and not just a foreign policy of rousophobia.

rousophobia. a foreign policy that is a realistic

a foreign policy that is a realistic foreign policy that understands Russia's

foreign policy that understands Russia's situation, that understands Europe's

situation, that understands Europe's situation, that understands what America

situation, that understands what America is and what it stands for,

is and what it stands for, that tries to

that tries to avoid Europe being invaded by the United

avoid Europe being invaded by the United States

States because it's not impossible that America

because it's not impossible that America will just land troops in Danish

will just land troops in Danish territory.

territory. I'm not joking.

I'm not joking. And I don't think they're joking. And

And I don't think they're joking. And Europe needs a foreign policy,

Europe needs a foreign policy, a real one, not a yes, we'll bargain

a real one, not a yes, we'll bargain with Mr. Trump and meet him halfway.

with Mr. Trump and meet him halfway. You know what that will be like? Give me

You know what that will be like? Give me a call afterwards.

Please don't have American officials as head of Europe. Have European officials,

head of Europe. Have European officials, please

please have a European foreign policy.

have a European foreign policy. You're going to be living with Russia

You're going to be living with Russia for a long time,

for a long time, so please negotiate with Russia.

so please negotiate with Russia. There are real security issues on the

There are real security issues on the table.

table. But the bombast and the rousophobia

But the bombast and the rousophobia is not serving your security at all.

is not serving your security at all. It's not serving Ukraine security at

It's not serving Ukraine security at all. It contributed to a million

all. It contributed to a million casualties in Ukraine from this idiotic

casualties in Ukraine from this idiotic American adventure that you signed on to

American adventure that you signed on to and then became the lead cheerleaders of

and then became the lead cheerleaders of solves nothing

on the Middle East. By the way, the US

the US completely handed over foreign policy to

completely handed over foreign policy to Netanyahu 30 years ago. The Israel lobby

Netanyahu 30 years ago. The Israel lobby dominates American politics. Just have

dominates American politics. Just have no doubt about it. I could explain for

no doubt about it. I could explain for hours how it works. It's very dangerous.

hours how it works. It's very dangerous. I'm hoping that Trump will not destroy

I'm hoping that Trump will not destroy his administration

his administration and worse the Palestinian people because

and worse the Palestinian people because of Netanyahu, who I regard as a war

of Netanyahu, who I regard as a war criminal uh properly indicted by the IC

criminal uh properly indicted by the IC and that needs to be told no more that

and that needs to be told no more that there will be a state of Palestine on

there will be a state of Palestine on the borders of the 4th of June 1967.

the borders of the 4th of June 1967. according to international law as the

according to international law as the only way for peace. It's the only way

only way for peace. It's the only way for Europe to have peace on your borders

for Europe to have peace on your borders with the Middle East is the two-state

with the Middle East is the two-state solution. There is only one obstacle to

solution. There is only one obstacle to it, by the way, and that is the veto of

it, by the way, and that is the veto of the United States in the UN Security

the United States in the UN Security Council. So if you want to have some

Council. So if you want to have some influence, tell the United States, drop

influence, tell the United States, drop the veto.

the veto. You are together with 180 countries in

You are together with 180 countries in the world. The only ones that oppose a

the world. The only ones that oppose a Palestinian state are

Palestinian state are the United States, Israel, Micronisia,

the United States, Israel, Micronisia, Nau, Palao,

Nau, Palao, Papa New Guinea,

Papa New Guinea, Mr. Malay

Mr. Malay and Paraguay.

So this is a place where Europe could have a big influence.

have a big influence. Europe has gone silent about the JCPOA

Europe has gone silent about the JCPOA and Iran.

and Iran. Netanyahu's greatest dream in life is a

Netanyahu's greatest dream in life is a war between the United States and Iran.

war between the United States and Iran. He's not given up. And it's not

He's not given up. And it's not impossible that that would come also.

impossible that that would come also. And that's because the US in this regard

And that's because the US in this regard does not have an independent foreign

does not have an independent foreign policy. It is run by Israel. It's

policy. It is run by Israel. It's tragic.

tragic. It's amazing. By the way,

It's amazing. By the way, it could end. Trump may say that he

it could end. Trump may say that he wants foreign policy back. Maybe. I'm

wants foreign policy back. Maybe. I'm hoping that it's the case. Finally, let

hoping that it's the case. Finally, let me just say with respect to China, China

me just say with respect to China, China is not an enemy. China is just a success

is not an enemy. China is just a success story. That's why it is viewed by the

story. That's why it is viewed by the United States as an enemy because China

United States as an enemy because China is a bigger economy than the United

is a bigger economy than the United States.

States. That's all.

That's all. [Applause]

[Applause] Very well. Now

Very well. Now questions. Please don't make any

questions. Please don't make any statements. just make questions because

statements. just make questions because we have too many and we we don't have

we have too many and we we don't have that all that much time. So, um where do

that all that much time. So, um where do I start? I start with on the left side.

I start? I start with on the left side. I have a preference to the left. Yes,

I have a preference to the left. Yes, you know you come all.

you know you come all. >> Yeah. Go ahead. Uh thank you Jeffrey Sak

>> Yeah. Go ahead. Uh thank you Jeffrey Sak uh from the Czech Republic. We are glad

uh from the Czech Republic. We are glad we have you here. Uh we have a problem.

we have you here. Uh we have a problem. Uh we were cursed by a witch who told m

Uh we were cursed by a witch who told m the EU and the EU is mugged. Uh so uh it

the EU and the EU is mugged. Uh so uh it won't be improved until 2029. But what

won't be improved until 2029. But what we the central Europeans should do in

we the central Europeans should do in the meantime especially if the Germans

the meantime especially if the Germans doesn't don't happen to vote for Sarah

doesn't don't happen to vote for Sarah connect enough uh are we supposed to

connect enough uh are we supposed to create some kind of neutrality uh for

create some kind of neutrality uh for the central Europe or what would you

the central Europe or what would you suggest us to do?

So, uh, first of all, uh, all my grandchildren are Czech, I want you to

grandchildren are Czech, I want you to know. Uh, and Sonia is a Czech born, uh,

know. Uh, and Sonia is a Czech born, uh, and Czech citizen. Um, so we're very

and Czech citizen. Um, so we're very proud. Uh, I'm I'm the trailing spouse

proud. Uh, I'm I'm the trailing spouse in this, but I'm a Czech wannabe. Um,

Europe needs to have a foreign policy that is a European foreign policy and it

that is a European foreign policy and it needs to be a realist foreign policy.

needs to be a realist foreign policy. Realist is not hate. Realist is actually

Realist is not hate. Realist is actually trying to understand both sides and to

trying to understand both sides and to negotiate. There are two kinds of

negotiate. There are two kinds of realists. defensive realists and

realists. defensive realists and offensive realists.

offensive realists. My dear friend John Mirshimer, who is

My dear friend John Mirshimer, who is the offensive realist, I I we're very

the offensive realist, I I we're very close friends and I love him, but I

close friends and I love him, but I believe more than he does, you talk to

believe more than he does, you talk to the other side and you find a way to

the other side and you find a way to make an understanding. And so

make an understanding. And so basically uh

basically uh Russia is not going to invade Europe.

Russia is not going to invade Europe. This is the fundamental point. It may

This is the fundamental point. It may get up to the deeper river.

get up to the deeper river. It's not going to invade Europe. But

It's not going to invade Europe. But there are real issues.

there are real issues. The the main issue for Russia was the

The the main issue for Russia was the United States because Russia as a major

United States because Russia as a major power and a the largest nuclear power in

power and a the largest nuclear power in the world was profoundly concerned about

the world was profoundly concerned about US unipolarity from the beginning. Now

US unipolarity from the beginning. Now that this is seemingly possibly ending,

that this is seemingly possibly ending, Europe has to open negotiations directly

Europe has to open negotiations directly with Russia as well because the United

with Russia as well because the United States will quickly lose interest and

States will quickly lose interest and you're going to be living with Russia

you're going to be living with Russia for the next thousands of years.

for the next thousands of years. Okay? So what do you want? You want to

Okay? So what do you want? You want to make sure that the Baltic states are

make sure that the Baltic states are secure.

secure. The best thing for the Baltic states is

The best thing for the Baltic states is to stop their rousophobia.

This is the most important thing. Estonia has about 25% Russian citizens

Estonia has about 25% Russian citizens or Russian speaking citizens, ethnic

or Russian speaking citizens, ethnic Russians.

Russians. Latvia the same.

Don't provoke the neighbor. That's all. This is not heard.

This is not heard. It really isn't heard. And again, I want

It really isn't heard. And again, I want to explain my point of view.

to explain my point of view. I have helped these countries, the ones

I have helped these countries, the ones I'm talking about, trying to advise. I'm

I'm talking about, trying to advise. I'm not their enemy. I'm not Putin's puppet.

not their enemy. I'm not Putin's puppet. I'm not Putin's apologist.

I'm not Putin's apologist. I worked in Estonia. They gave me I

I worked in Estonia. They gave me I don't it's not I think it's the second

don't it's not I think it's the second highest civilian honor that a president

highest civilian honor that a president of Estonia can bestow on a non-national

of Estonia can bestow on a non-national because I designed their currency system

because I designed their currency system for them in 1992.

for them in 1992. So I'm giving them advice. Do not stand

So I'm giving them advice. Do not stand there Estonia and say we want to break

there Estonia and say we want to break up Russia.

up Russia. Are you kidding? Don't.

Are you kidding? Don't. This is not how to survive in this

This is not how to survive in this world. You survive with mutual respect.

world. You survive with mutual respect. Actually,

Actually, you survive in negotiation.

you survive in negotiation. You survive in discussion. You don't

You survive in discussion. You don't outlaw the Russian language.

outlaw the Russian language. Not a good idea. When 25% of your

Not a good idea. When 25% of your population is has a first language of

population is has a first language of Russian,

Russian, it's not right. Even if there weren't a

it's not right. Even if there weren't a giant on the border, it wouldn't be the

giant on the border, it wouldn't be the right thing to do. You'd have it as an

right thing to do. You'd have it as an official language.

official language. You'd have a language of uh in lower

You'd have a language of uh in lower school. You wouldn't antagonize the

school. You wouldn't antagonize the Russian Orthodox Church.

Russian Orthodox Church. So basically, we need to behave like

So basically, we need to behave like grown-ups.

grown-ups. And when I

And when I constantly say

constantly say that they're acting like children, Sonia

that they're acting like children, Sonia always says to me that's unfair to

always says to me that's unfair to children

because this is worse than children. We have a six-year-old granddaughter and

We have a six-year-old granddaughter and a three-year-old grandson and they

a three-year-old grandson and they actually make up with their friends

actually make up with their friends and we don't tell them go just just

and we don't tell them go just just ridicule them tomorrow and every day.

ridicule them tomorrow and every day. We say go give them a hug and go play

We say go give them a hug and go play and they do.

and they do. This is not hard.

This is not hard. by the way. Well, anyway, I won't

by the way. Well, anyway, I won't belabor the point. Thank you.

belabor the point. Thank you. >> So, elect a new government. No, I

>> So, elect a new government. No, I shouldn't say that. What all all I

shouldn't say that. What all all I should say is change change policy.

should say is change change policy. >> I don't want to have a political

>> Does that work? Yeah. Hi, my name is Kira. I'm a reporter with the Brussels

Kira. I'm a reporter with the Brussels Times. Um, thank you for the fascinating

Times. Um, thank you for the fascinating talk, Jeffrey. Um, I just wanted to ask

talk, Jeffrey. Um, I just wanted to ask you about Trump's statements about

you about Trump's statements about wanting uh NATO members to increase

wanting uh NATO members to increase their spending by 5%. And we're now

their spending by 5%. And we're now seeing lots of countries scrambling to

seeing lots of countries scrambling to prove that they're going to do that,

prove that they're going to do that, including Belgium. And given that

including Belgium. And given that Belgium is also the NATO headquarters,

Belgium is also the NATO headquarters, um, I wanted to ask you what would be

um, I wanted to ask you what would be the appropriate response to those

the appropriate response to those statements by NATO members. Thanks.

statements by NATO members. Thanks. >> Uh, we don't see exactly eye to eye on

>> Uh, we don't see exactly eye to eye on this question. Uh, so let me let me give

this question. Uh, so let me let me give you my own uh my own view. Um,

you my own uh my own view. Um, my first recommendation with all respect

my first recommendation with all respect to Brussels is move the NATO

to Brussels is move the NATO headquarters somewhere else. Uh,

headquarters somewhere else. Uh, I I mean it seriously because one of the

I I mean it seriously because one of the worst

worst parts of European

parts of European policy right now is a complete confusion

policy right now is a complete confusion of Europe and NATO.

of Europe and NATO. These are completely different, but they

These are completely different, but they became exactly the same.

Europe is much better than NATO. In my opinion, NATO isn't even needed

In my opinion, NATO isn't even needed anymore. I would have ended it in 1991,

anymore. I would have ended it in 1991, but because the US viewed it as a

but because the US viewed it as a instrument of hegemony,

instrument of hegemony, not as a defense against Russia.

not as a defense against Russia. It continued afterwards. But the

It continued afterwards. But the confusion of NATO and Europe is deadly

confusion of NATO and Europe is deadly because expanding Europe meant expanding

because expanding Europe meant expanding NATO

NATO period and these should have been

period and these should have been completely different things.

completely different things. So this is uh the first point.

So this is uh the first point. My own view, again with all respect to

My own view, again with all respect to Michael, we only had a brief

Michael, we only had a brief conversation about it, is that Europe

conversation about it, is that Europe should have Europe basically should have

should have Europe basically should have its own foreign policy and its own uh

its own foreign policy and its own uh its own military security, its own

its own military security, its own strategic autonomy, so-called, and it

strategic autonomy, so-called, and it should. I'm in favor of that. I would

should. I'm in favor of that. I would disband NATO, and maybe Trump is going

disband NATO, and maybe Trump is going to do it anyway.

to do it anyway. Maybe Trump's going to invade Greenland.

Maybe Trump's going to invade Greenland. Who knows? Then you're really going to

Who knows? Then you're really going to find out what NATO means.

find out what NATO means. So,

So, I do think that Europe should invest in

I do think that Europe should invest in its security.

its security. 5% is outlandish, ridiculous,

5% is outlandish, ridiculous, absurd,

absurd, completely absurd. No one needs to spend

completely absurd. No one needs to spend anything like that amount.

anything like that amount. two to 3% of GDP probably under the

two to 3% of GDP probably under the current circumstances.

What I would do, by the way, is buy European production

European production because actually, strangely, weirdly,

unfortunately, in this world, and it's a trueism, but it's unfortunate, so I'm

trueism, but it's unfortunate, so I'm not championing it. A lot of

not championing it. A lot of technological innovation spins off from

technological innovation spins off from the military sector

the military sector because governments invest in the

because governments invest in the military sector.

military sector. So Trump is a arms salesman. You

So Trump is a arms salesman. You understand that? He's selling American

understand that? He's selling American arms.

arms. He is selling American technology.

He is selling American technology. Vance told you a few days ago, don't

Vance told you a few days ago, don't even think about having your own AI

even think about having your own AI technology.

technology. So, please understand

So, please understand that this increase of spending is for

that this increase of spending is for the United States, not for you.

And in this sense, I'm completely against that approach.

against that approach. But I would not be against an approach

But I would not be against an approach of Europe spending two to three% of GDP

of Europe spending two to three% of GDP for a unified European security

for a unified European security structure

structure and invested in Europe and European

and invested in Europe and European technology

technology and not having the United States dictate

and not having the United States dictate the use of European technology.

the use of European technology. It's so interesting. It's the

It's so interesting. It's the Netherlands that produces the only

Netherlands that produces the only machines of advanced semiconductors,

machines of advanced semiconductors, extreme ultraviolet lithography. It's

extreme ultraviolet lithography. It's ASML.

ASML. But America determines every policy of

But America determines every policy of ASML. The Netherlands doesn't even have

ASML. The Netherlands doesn't even have a footnote.

I wouldn't do that if I were you. Hand over all security to the United States.

over all security to the United States. I wouldn't do it. I would have your own

I wouldn't do it. I would have your own security framework. So you can have your

security framework. So you can have your own foreign policy framework as well.

own foreign policy framework as well. Europe stands for lots of things that

Europe stands for lots of things that the United States does not stand for.

the United States does not stand for. Europe stands for climate action,

Europe stands for climate action, by the way, rightly so, cuz our

by the way, rightly so, cuz our president is completely bonkers on this.

president is completely bonkers on this. And Europe stands for decency,

And Europe stands for decency, for social democracy as an ethos. I'm

for social democracy as an ethos. I'm not talking about a party. I'm talking

not talking about a party. I'm talking about an ethos of how equality of life

about an ethos of how equality of life occurs.

occurs. Europe stands for multilateralism.

Europe stands for multilateralism. Europe stands for the UN charter. The US

Europe stands for the UN charter. The US stands for none of those things.

stands for none of those things. You know that

You know that our Secretary of State, Marco Rubio,

our Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, cancelled his trip to South Africa

cancelled his trip to South Africa because on the agenda was equality and

because on the agenda was equality and sustainability.

sustainability. And he said, "I'm not getting into

And he said, "I'm not getting into that."

that." That is an honest reflection of deep

That is an honest reflection of deep Anglosaxon

Anglosaxon libertarianism.

Egalitarianism is not a word of the American lexicon.

American lexicon. Sustainable development, not at all. You

Sustainable development, not at all. You probably know, by the way, that of the

probably know, by the way, that of the 193 UN member states,

193 UN member states, 191 have had SDG plans presented as

191 have had SDG plans presented as voluntary national reviews. 191. Two

voluntary national reviews. 191. Two have not. Haiti and the United States of

have not. Haiti and the United States of America.

America. The Biden administration wasn't even

The Biden administration wasn't even allowed to say sustainable development

allowed to say sustainable development goals. The Treasury had a policy not to

goals. The Treasury had a policy not to say sustainable development goals. Okay,

say sustainable development goals. Okay, I mention all of this because you need

I mention all of this because you need your own foreign policy.

your own foreign policy. I issue a report, two reports each year.

I issue a report, two reports each year. won the world happiness report and 18 of

won the world happiness report and 18 of the top 20 countries if I I remember

the top 20 countries if I I remember correctly are European. This is the

correctly are European. This is the highest quality of life in the whole

highest quality of life in the whole world. So you need your own policy to

world. So you need your own policy to protect that quality of life. The United

protect that quality of life. The United States ranks way down.

States ranks way down. And the other report where's my

And the other report where's my colleague Guom is somewhere in the room

colleague Guom is somewhere in the room here. There he is. Guom La Fortun is the

here. There he is. Guom La Fortun is the lead author of our annual sustainable

lead author of our annual sustainable development report and almost all of the

development report and almost all of the top 20 countries are European countries

top 20 countries are European countries because you believe in this stuff and

because you believe in this stuff and that's why you're the happiest except in

that's why you're the happiest except in geopolitics

but quality of life. So you need your own

own foreign policy, but you won't have it

foreign policy, but you won't have it unless you have your own security.

unless you have your own security. >> You just won't. And so, and by the way,

>> You just won't. And so, and by the way, 27 countries cannot each have their own

27 countries cannot each have their own foreign policy. This is a problem. You

foreign policy. This is a problem. You need a European foreign policy and a

need a European foreign policy and a European security structure. And by the

European security structure. And by the way, although Michael assures me it's

way, although Michael assures me it's dead, I was the greatest fan of OCE

dead, I was the greatest fan of OCE and believe that OCE is the proper

and believe that OCE is the proper framework for European security. It

framework for European security. It could really work.

>> Thank you. Thank you very much. >> Yeah. Okay. Uh well, uh thank you,

>> Yeah. Okay. Uh well, uh thank you, professor. I'm from Slovakia and my

professor. I'm from Slovakia and my prime minister Robert Fitz was almost

prime minister Robert Fitz was almost shot dead because the opinions you had

shot dead because the opinions you had the similar with him. Uh yes we are as a

the similar with him. Uh yes we are as a Slovakia Slovaka government of the few

Slovakia Slovaka government of the few countries in the European Union we are

countries in the European Union we are talking to Russians. Uh two months ago I

talking to Russians. Uh two months ago I was talking with Mr. Medvev in two weeks

was talking with Mr. Medvev in two weeks I will be talking uh in Duma with Mr.

I will be talking uh in Duma with Mr. Slutzki who is the chairman of the

Slutzki who is the chairman of the Russian uh foreign affairs committee in

Russian uh foreign affairs committee in Moscow. Maybe my question is what would

Moscow. Maybe my question is what would you be your message to Russians in this

you be your message to Russians in this moment? Because as I heard they are on

moment? Because as I heard they are on the victorious wave. They have no reason

the victorious wave. They have no reason to not to conquer the Tombas because

to not to conquer the Tombas because that's their war aim. And what can Trump

that's their war aim. And what can Trump can offer to them uh to stop the war

can offer to them uh to stop the war immediately? What would be what would be

immediately? What would be what would be the the message for Russians from your

the the message for Russians from your side? Thank you very much.

Lots of uh important things are uh now on offer and on the table and I believe

on offer and on the table and I believe that the war will end quickly because of

that the war will end quickly because of this and this this will be at least one

this and this this will be at least one blessing in a very uh very difficult

blessing in a very uh very difficult time. Exactly what the settlement will

time. Exactly what the settlement will be I think is now only a question of the

be I think is now only a question of the territorial issues. uh and that is

territorial issues. uh and that is whether it is the complete four oblasts

whether it is the complete four oblasts including all of her son and Zaparisia

including all of her son and Zaparisia or whether it is on the contact line and

or whether it is on the contact line and how all of this will be negotiated. I'm

how all of this will be negotiated. I'm not in the room of the negotiations so I

not in the room of the negotiations so I can't really say more but the basis will

can't really say more but the basis will be there will be territorial

be there will be territorial concessions. There will be neutrality.

concessions. There will be neutrality. There will be security guarantees for

There will be security guarantees for Ukraine for all parties. Uh there will

Ukraine for all parties. Uh there will be at least with the US an end of the

be at least with the US an end of the economic sanctions. Uh but what counts

economic sanctions. Uh but what counts of course is Europe and Russia. I think

of course is Europe and Russia. I think that there are and maybe there will be a

that there are and maybe there will be a restoration of nuclear arms uh

restoration of nuclear arms uh negotiations which would be

negotiations which would be extraordinarily positive.

extraordinarily positive. I think that there are

I think that there are tremendously important issues for Europe

tremendously important issues for Europe to negotiate directly with Russia. And

to negotiate directly with Russia. And so I would urge uh President Costa and

so I would urge uh President Costa and the leadership of Europe to open direct

the leadership of Europe to open direct discussions with President Putin because

discussions with President Putin because European security is on the table. I

European security is on the table. I know the Russian leaders, many of them

know the Russian leaders, many of them quite well. Uh they are good negotiators

quite well. Uh they are good negotiators and uh you should negotiate with them.

and uh you should negotiate with them. uh and you should negotiate well with

uh and you should negotiate well with them. Uh

them. Uh I would ask them some questions. Uh I

I would ask them some questions. Uh I would ask them what are the security

would ask them what are the security guarantees that can work so that this

guarantees that can work so that this war ends permanently?

war ends permanently? What are the security guarantees for the

What are the security guarantees for the Baltic states? What should be done? Part

Baltic states? What should be done? Part of the process of negotiation is

of the process of negotiation is actually to ask the other side about

actually to ask the other side about your concerns. Not just to know what

your concerns. Not just to know what they know as you think is too true, but

they know as you think is too true, but actually to ask we have a real problem.

actually to ask we have a real problem. We have a real worry. What are the

We have a real worry. What are the guarantees? Well, I want to know the

guarantees? Well, I want to know the answers also. Uh, by the way, I know Mr.

answers also. Uh, by the way, I know Mr. Lavrov, Minister Lavrov for 30 years. I

Lavrov, Minister Lavrov for 30 years. I I regard him as a brilliant foreign

I regard him as a brilliant foreign minister. uh talk with him, negotiate

minister. uh talk with him, negotiate with him, get ideas, put ideas on the

with him, get ideas, put ideas on the table, put counter ideas on the table.

table, put counter ideas on the table. Uh I don't think all of this can be

Uh I don't think all of this can be settled by pure reason because uh of

settled by pure reason because uh of oneself. You settle wars by negotiating

oneself. You settle wars by negotiating and understanding what are the real

and understanding what are the real issues. And you don't call the other

issues. And you don't call the other side a liar when they express their

side a liar when they express their issues. you work out what the

issues. you work out what the implications of that are for the mutual

implications of that are for the mutual benefit of peace. So the most important

benefit of peace. So the most important thing is stop the yelling, stop the

thing is stop the yelling, stop the wararm mongering and discuss with the

wararm mongering and discuss with the Russian counterparts and don't beg to be

Russian counterparts and don't beg to be at the table with the United States. You

at the table with the United States. You don't need to be in the room with the

don't need to be in the room with the United States. You're Europe. You should

United States. You're Europe. You should be in the room with Europe and Russia.

be in the room with Europe and Russia. If the United States wants to join,

If the United States wants to join, that's fine.

that's fine. But to beg, no. And by the way,

But to beg, no. And by the way, Europe does not need to have Ukraine in

Europe does not need to have Ukraine in the room when Europe talks with Russia.

the room when Europe talks with Russia. You have a lot of issues, direct issues.

You have a lot of issues, direct issues. Don't hand over your foreign policy to

Don't hand over your foreign policy to anybody. Not to the United States, not

anybody. Not to the United States, not to Ukraine, not to Israel.

to Ukraine, not to Israel. Keep a European foreign policy. This is

Keep a European foreign policy. This is the basic idea.

Uh, Hans Nohof from the Southernists political group in this parliament um,

political group in this parliament um, alternative for Germany as political

alternative for Germany as political party. First of all, let me thank you,

party. First of all, let me thank you, Mr. Sax for being here and sharing your

Mr. Sax for being here and sharing your ideas with us and be assured that many

ideas with us and be assured that many of your ideas and of your colleague John

of your ideas and of your colleague John Merchimer have well been received by

Merchimer have well been received by political groups here and have been

political groups here and have been integrated into our agenda. I widely

integrated into our agenda. I widely share your views. Um yet there's one

share your views. Um yet there's one question regarding the historical

question regarding the historical account that you gave uh where I would

account that you gave uh where I would like to go in some detail and this

like to go in some detail and this concerns the beginning of NATO

concerns the beginning of NATO expansion. Um you um uh uh reported from

expansion. Um you um uh uh reported from uh um the website um what Gorbachov

uh um the website um what Gorbachov heard that there are many um quotations

heard that there are many um quotations from Ganture for example um that NATO

from Ganture for example um that NATO will not move one inch eastwards. Now

will not move one inch eastwards. Now the 2 + 4 treaty has been signed in

the 2 + 4 treaty has been signed in September 1990 right in Moscow. So at

September 1990 right in Moscow. So at that point in time the Warso pact still

that point in time the Warso pact still existed and countries like Poland,

existed and countries like Poland, Hungary and Czecha were not part of the

Hungary and Czecha were not part of the negotiations for the two and four

negotiations for the two and four treaty. So the Warso pact actually

treaty. So the Warso pact actually dissolved in July 1991 and the Soviet

dissolved in July 1991 and the Soviet Union dissolved in December 1991.

Union dissolved in December 1991. So nobody who was present in the

So nobody who was present in the negotiations could speak for Poland,

negotiations could speak for Poland, could speak for Hungary, could speak for

could speak for Hungary, could speak for Slovakia that they would not try to

Slovakia that they would not try to become member of NATO once the overall

become member of NATO once the overall situation has changed. So the

situation has changed. So the counterargument um which we have to

counterargument um which we have to counter um is that it was on the will of

counter um is that it was on the will of these countries of Poland, of Hungary,

these countries of Poland, of Hungary, of Slovakia that they wanted to join

of Slovakia that they wanted to join NATO because of the very history they

NATO because of the very history they had with the Soviet Union. And of course

had with the Soviet Union. And of course Russia was still perceived in a way um

Russia was still perceived in a way um as a follower of the Soviet Union. So

as a follower of the Soviet Union. So how do you counter that argument?

I have no doubt of why Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic,

Czech Republic, Slovakia wanted to join NATO. The

Slovakia wanted to join NATO. The question is what is the US doing to make

question is what is the US doing to make peace? Because NATO is not a choice of

peace? Because NATO is not a choice of Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic or

Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic or Slovakia. NATO is a US-led military

Slovakia. NATO is a US-led military alliance and the question is how are we

alliance and the question is how are we going to establish peace in a reliable

going to establish peace in a reliable way?

way? If I were uh making uh those decisions

If I were uh making uh those decisions back then, I would have ended NATO

back then, I would have ended NATO altogether in 1991.

When those countries requested NATO, I would have explained to them what our

would have explained to them what our defense secretary, William Perry, said,

defense secretary, William Perry, said, what our lead statesman, George Kennan,

what our lead statesman, George Kennan, said, uh what our final ambassador to

said, uh what our final ambassador to the Soviet Union, Jack Matlock, said. Uh

the Soviet Union, Jack Matlock, said. Uh they said, "Well, we understand your

they said, "Well, we understand your feelings, but it's not a good idea

feelings, but it's not a good idea because it could provoke a new cold war

because it could provoke a new cold war with Russia." So that's how I would have

with Russia." So that's how I would have answered it when those countries joined

answered it when those countries joined uh in the first wave. I don't think it

uh in the first wave. I don't think it was that consequential in fact except

was that consequential in fact except that it was part of a bigger project and

that it was part of a bigger project and the project was spelled out already in

the project was spelled out already in 1994. There's a very good book by uh

1994. There's a very good book by uh Jonathan Hasslam, Harvard University

Jonathan Hasslam, Harvard University Press called Hubris, which gives a

Press called Hubris, which gives a detailed historical documentation of

detailed historical documentation of step by step what happened. Uh and uh

step by step what happened. Uh and uh it's it's really worth reading. Um, so

it's it's really worth reading. Um, so this is uh now but the point I would

this is uh now but the point I would really make is that Ukraine and Georgia

really make is that Ukraine and Georgia were too far.

were too far. This is right up against Russia.

This is right up against Russia. This is in the context of the complete

This is in the context of the complete destabilization of the nuclear

destabilization of the nuclear framework. This is in the context of the

framework. This is in the context of the US putting in missile systems on

US putting in missile systems on Russia's borders. If you listen to

Russia's borders. If you listen to President Putin over the years,

President Putin over the years, probably the main thing if you listen

probably the main thing if you listen carefully that he's concerned about is

carefully that he's concerned about is missiles 7 minutes from Moscow is a

missiles 7 minutes from Moscow is a decapitation strike and this is very

decapitation strike and this is very real. The US not only would freak out

real. The US not only would freak out but did freak out when this happened in

but did freak out when this happened in the Western Hemisphere.

the Western Hemisphere. So it's the Cuban missile crisis in

So it's the Cuban missile crisis in reverse.

reverse. And fortunately, Nikita Kruev did not

And fortunately, Nikita Kruev did not stand up and say open door policy of the

stand up and say open door policy of the Warsaw pact.

Warsaw pact. >> We can go wherever we want. Cuba's asked

>> We can go wherever we want. Cuba's asked us. It's none of America's business.

us. It's none of America's business. What Kruev said is war? My god, we don't

What Kruev said is war? My god, we don't want war. We end this crisis. We both

want war. We end this crisis. We both pull back. That's what Kruev and Kennedy

pull back. That's what Kruev and Kennedy decided in the end. So this is the real

decided in the end. So this is the real consequential.

consequential. Russia even swallowed with a lot of pain

Russia even swallowed with a lot of pain the Baltic states, Romania, Bulgaria,

the Baltic states, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Slovenia. It is Ukraine

Slovakia, and Slovenia. It is Ukraine and Georgia. And it's because of

and Georgia. And it's because of geography. It's because of Lord

geography. It's because of Lord Palmerston. It's because of the first

Palmerston. It's because of the first Crimean War. It's because of the missile

Crimean War. It's because of the missile systems that this is the essence of why

systems that this is the essence of why there was this war. Anybody