This content outlines a timeless Betfair trading strategy focused on identifying and exploiting market momentum and bias, rather than predicting race outcomes, to achieve consistent profits.
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so i'm going to show you a Betfair trading strategy in action that is timeless it's a great
strategy for beginners to start with and develop because this Betfair trading strategy works in
every single market and also with experience and the right situation you can really scale up those
profits when you're using it i'm sharing the screen here and i want to get straight into it
showing you how and why it works but to give you a quick heads up there's three screen recording
examples rolled into one in this video you're watching now i've recorded the first three races
of the day back to back in order to show you how this works over and over again the results vary
between the three races although we'll be making the best part of 100 pounds profit in a little
under 30 minutes i'll explain what i'm thinking and what i'm doing as we go so looking at the
first race of the day on betfair here i noticed a few things of interest straight away by the way if
you're new here and the interface is confusing for you i'm using a third-party software application
that allows me to see and react to betfair's exchange markets in real time so starting off with
that first race then i'm going to take you through the sequence that i'll typically go through per
race with my thoughts now i'm looking at time form in the background here just have a little
look at this race to see if there's any standout differences or irregularities what i'm not doing
is reading form okay i'm not trying to read form and predict where the price is going to go i'm
just looking at you know is there a horse that's on its debut that hasn't run for a long time
and then if i spot large amounts of money in the marketplace in line with that then i know that
it's something you know that could be unfolding next i'll take a look at the different runners
in the races you can see i'm doing the top right there just so i can have a look at their charts
along the bottom the traded volumes along the right and the current price they're at just again
to see if there's any standout differences any uh sort of nasties that you you might not see if you
haven't looked at this whereby a horse is being backed heavily or is going a horrendous drift
now next thing from there is to take a look at the market overview take a look at the ladders
see the relationship between the different runners and their historical price activity
because recent volume changes are likely to have a big impact on what happens in this live show in
a few minutes time when you see the trades unfold the over round in the marketplace actually ensures
that all prices are relative to each other so some may be aware of this but basically if one
goes down something else has to go up although there is a bias towards the front end of the
book now i'm looking at one of the outside runners there on the fourth ladder because
the price is actually coming a little which is where i then move over to timeform just to check
a little bit more there again but what i'm trying to find here is is there something that's going
to push down heavily in one direction that's being backed that's happening now that's not necessarily
happened throughout the day that's happened now or gonna likely to unfold more so now um because that
will affect other runners within the marketplace so i'm building up a bit of an overall view and
image on what's actually happening in front of us here on the screen so comparing the runners
and i'm not predicting that's what i really want to get stuck in here because a lot of
people think oh you predict the price because you read the form or something like that
we're not predicting the price it's quite early on highlighting the time over the left there
we are just looking for changes and then we're going to be reactional to those changes as they
unfold which is where the strategy comes in which we'll talk about more in just a second so we're
looking to profit no matter what happens here on this race before it starts we're going to lock in
a profit with the prices moving or that's what we aim to do anyway so we're getting a current idea
we're getting up to speed we've built up our image and now it's a case of keeping on what's happening
in the market activity it's just placed a lay bit there on the favorite because it looks like
the favorites drifting out here i was thinking you know you can get matched for a very small amount
see or take a few ticks early doors because it seems quite obvious to me right now the second
third fourth runners are all coming in and the favorite is weak so there's three versus one which
means is this a 50 50 decision because when you're trading a price it can only go two ways it can go
up or it can go down it's not 50 50 decision all the time which is where trading comes in
but it's 50 50 on the outcome so we're looking for a situation where it's more likely to move in one
direction when really it can only move one of two directions so the strategy is to find that bias
in the money in the marketplace as it happens and then exploit that move as is happening and while
it's happening rather than trying to sort of get out our crystal ball and do the mystic meg thing
of predicting the future so longer term view is what we're looking at here because you know
there's lots of market noise which we'll talk about a bit more in a second but when the market
activity picks up because this is very early on right now six minutes before the start and there's
more money matched there will be more market noise there will be prices bouncing around very short
term but what we're looking for is a slightly longer term action there and the reason for
it and finding that buyer so looking at the top there's 52 000 pounds matched on this horse race
um it's a two mile national hunt flat race which means that there's a low amount of form therefore
the prices are probably more likely to lose because sorry to lose to move because um the the
marketplace is made up of opinion and how can you have a huge opinion on a race where there's very
little form and people don't know a lot about the runners one other thing that i failed to mention
previously so do cross check occasionally towards checker and color over different sites it doesn't
matter too much typically bookmakers prices follow the exchange prices but again just looking at
the times if you wasn't aware if you click on the names on those checker there it will show you the
times at which they updated their prices obviously it is affiliate feeds so it's slightly delayed
but you know you can start to see the overall pattern of activity looking for that bias that's
likely to unfold in the live show in the next few minutes so if i speed up this recording just now
bring you to where the action is i'll explain what's going on and why so i'm more interested in
the second runner here than anything else in the race i'm bearing in mind the relationship between
the others as you can see on the market overview on the side there but the second favorite boot and
shoe here appears to be the the money horse as i'd call it the horse that's attracting a little bit
of support inside the live shows we're coming to the interesting end of the market now last three
and a half minutes but one thing i want you guys to remember here is a lot of the work is actually
done before this point okay so i've already built up my opinion and it's a case of sitting and
watching being disciplined understanding what's likely to happen and then remain flexible in my
view and how i approach and deal with this race because things do change so i've placed a couple
of lay bets in the market there on these two runners i'm not 100 sure which one's going to come
back in there i'm thinking you know potentially the favorite could turn on its price here it may
continue the second favorite is more interesting out of the two but i'm placing those lay bets in
the market away from the active price which is the price where you know the touch prices where those
two prices meet up in the middle there because if the price starts to come towards us i'll
already be in a favorable position at the bottom of the queue with my lay bets in the marketplace
already so as this picks up and as this comes onto the live tv you may have just heard that in
in the background just there they're just starting to cover this race horses aren't actually down at
the start on the screen live right now but once we get to that point that's where we're going to see
the liquidity and the fill rate in the market pick up significantly now this is a quiet time of the
year also so you know if you can do this on these races then you'll find it a lot easier later on
in the year during the flat season and you'll see that i'm just starting to open the position there
back in boot and shoot because you see around about that time i clicked that if you go back
and look at the recording is when there was a flurry of money that come to the marketplace it
was confirming what i already believed and we're in that active window where there's more liquidity
there's more at stake and there will be more pressure in the marketplace so although there's
a low amount of money on the backside of the book they're sat in the marketplace we have got money
to get out against for the size of stake that i'm on i don't want to be too overexposed but we're in
the window where there is significant money that comes into the marketplace if you're trying to do
this sort of 20 minutes before the start you're leaving yourself in an exposed position when it
comes to risk because um there's not that active fill rate in the marketplace which can actually
match your orders and allow you to get out the position whether it's win or whether it's loose
so that's one thing to bear in mind also there and now i've noticed over on the forefront of there um
which is sort of maybe a little bit skittish on this the forefront on the right of the ladders
there is also attracting significant money now in an ideal world that wouldn't be happening so
all of the action would be on the runner that i'm looking to trade here so i'm just going to scale
out a little bit of my position there 50 quid on for 200 and this is a low liquidity market and it
isn't going crazy right now but i still believe at this point in time i've not completely bailed on
my view or understanding what's happening because i'm not looking super short-term and looking at
that noise as i previously mentioned i'm looking at the sort of more medium term slightly longer
term the next minute or so as things pick up proper on the tv and there's more liquidity in
the marketplace you'll see there's more stakes going in the market there and i'm looking for
a little bit more of a move i believe that this could come down to sort of 4.0 and below and i
think it's probably quite likely that it will given the fact that this horse attracted more
money in the marketplace than the others the only one that's slightly unnerving me at the
moment right now looking at the screens is the one over there on the on the fourth ladder and also
i'm keeping eye on the favor the whole time too because the favorite is the shortest price
in the marketplace and the shorter the prices are the more influence they have over the entire
market because they hold the largest percentage of the book now if this doesn't get moving in
a second and that that liquidity really arrived proper and tv is now coming on so we're looking in
a better position now but if that doesn't arrive properly then i'll be looking to get out of this
position and filter out um pretty soon because you know i mean we're past post time but this
race is certainly not going to go off on time um horses are sort of loitering down near the start
but they're not actually ready yet so this is where it's the make or break situation may have
to close out for a sort of eight quid loss at this point in time um if things don't pick up but i'm
really not too worried about that unmatched money on the lay side of the book that's something that
i think a lot of the time new trainers traders that are beginning um get a little
bit unnerved about and they see sort of like oh there's 1500 quid there how's that gonna
possibly ever get through it and it doesn't really mean a lot because once the price starts to move
um those numbers they're not totally irrelevant but you know it's less important so there we go
we've got the topple and the momentum is coming to the marketplace and it is close to the start
so i've just you know i've not really been left much time to let this move um develop so i've just
closed that straight away it was unnerving me and again i can see over on the fourth ladder still
there's a little bit of money for that horse it's obviously a bit of interest for that horse
too i'm not going to try and say its name but the other the horse i'm really not too bothered
about in this situation was the third that was the least interesting a lot and also you'll see
i've highlighted on the market overview there and you can see that outside the gray line um has come
in also just flicking through the different runs there because the race is about to go off so first
race there 26 quid wasn't the best example in the world um played it about right now the price
so the price has come into 11 to two it's come all the way down to 3.75 now
so we was right all along but we did need to remain confident in what i was doing on the
screen and you know bearing in mind is this a 50 50 decision it's certainly not a 50 50 decision
and then not leave himself massively overexposed so there you go the race has gone off in play
and then if we head over to the betfair website just to show the the traded bets on this runner
and to see the difference between the two prices there so you can see a difference between the back
and lay once that refresh there and that's how we've ended up with that profit over on the left
hand side of the screen so if we move on to the second example now i'm going to save you
the spiel that we went through on the previous one you can see what i'm doing here i'm doing the same
routine same systematic approach looking at the race seeing what's going on so the recording is
playing at double speed here um and we're gonna just fast forward through to the most interesting
part of the race where the action is what's actually going on so whilst this is playing
at double speed if you just bear in mind take a look at those dark green bars on the traded volume
on the right hand side of each column because that shows us where the recent money is being matched
just so you can get that little bit of foresight sort of speed it up without wasting your time now
at this point in time again it looks like the favorite's quite weak it looks like the second
has sort of took a little money maybe the third but nothing really too notable however this is
a short price this is a week short price it's a three mile novice handicap chase at exeter and
therefore i put a couple of back positions further up the ladder and thinking that you know potential
this is a 2v1 situation again so is it 50 50 that this is going to drift i don't believe so
in this instance and so that's why i've got those back bets in the marketplace there and you'll see
that i've just had um we've slowed this recording down now i've just had a lay bet matched at 2.74
very small stakes because this is slightly earlier than i like to get involved in the market
now the reason it's slightly earlier is similar to what i said in the last video it's not being
covered on tv properly yet there's not lots of action and so we haven't got the full-on
fill rate the difference being on the slightly shorter prices you can use slightly larger stakes
more comfortably because there's always larger amounts of money being matched in the marketplace
so it looks like on first glance that you know that third i'm highlighting it with the cursor
there you can see that third's taking a little bit of money which is providing a little bit more
imbalance in the marketplace so we're looking for the drift and the favorite although looking back
on this i was thinking you know at the time i was thinking it as well this has not really took off
at the speed i'd like to have seen it take off and there's not any other standout indicators
or massive influences outside like to do with the race um or you know maybe this war doesn't run or
anything like that that makes me think that this would go adrift i'm purely trading the numbers
i'm looking for more bias in the price movement um than 50 50 really and then just playing it as we
go there without over exposing myself on stakes so these are low stakes nothing to get excited about
and i like to work into the market sometimes like this and you'll see on those markets where
the price starts to really move and there's large volumes come you gain more and more confidence and
that's where the stakes increase and start putting on you know two three five five hundred a thousand
pounds on at a time now price hasn't really taken off and i'd like to see a bit more money for the
third again it's early and that's why i'm kind of playing this as i as it is it's almost like
um dare i say it i always say don't do those maybe trades because you know if it's a maybe
you shouldn't really be doing it but this is more towards the end of the spectrum whereby
i don't have a hugely strong opinion i just think that it's likely that there's going to be
a little bit of movement so i'm playing around now i realized that obviously whilst i was trading the
screen i'm sort of having the same thought process over again and so i've closed out the position
so we're at 42p green i couldn't care less whether it's green or red at this point in time
because i'm not getting involved on significant stakes until i'm confident which is something
that's really worth highlighting because a lot of new traders in particular and all traders of all
levels do this too need to realize and recognize that it's not just what you do in the market all
the time it's what you don't do so what i'm not doing is getting myself in a precarious position
here by feeling the urge to place bets and get them matched and be doing something because
we're only two minutes from the start which can be late but the interesting thing here really
is the fact that although there's a little bit of money coming in for the favorite right now
the market is actually resisting it so it's not changed significantly in direction
so i'm wondering right now is this going to be a case that you know the market's going
to bounce back the true direction might be the drift and the favorite and therefore something
else is going to come in you see a little bit of flurry of money on the second favorite there
and keeping on the fourth two but if the favorite should ping back out and go a significant drift
it means something else is gonna you know it's gonna open up the floodgates or something else
to come in in um sort of a quite quick succession so i'm trying to work out which runner is that
going to be at this point in time that's the kind of thought process that's going through my head
in reality i don't really know because it's a little bit of a flat market this there's not
um a distinct bias with one particular runner where the price is almost certainly going to
be moving in the direction that we want to see so again that favorite is being resisted
it's all hinging around the favorite here because the favorite's a short price which
has the most control over the marketplace and i'm thinking the second could be the one that pings in
as the favorite goes out now i'm kind of preempting that and anticipating that but
it's not really happening on the favor at this point in time so you know i'm being very flexible
in the way i'm viewing the market right now and even now replaying this and looking at it
i'm thinking probably should be back in the favor which is which is what i'm doing right now there
and that is because you know the market can only sustain resistance for so long and after
a while resistance becomes support and if it breaks through that resistance point which it
was struggling at there then it then becomes supporting which is what we're seeing now and
we're seeing the the uh the shortening of the favorite there but we're really close to the
start of the race it's all happened a little bit too late it wasn't very clear it wasn't that um
obvious that that bias was going to take place and therefore it should be the one that we're
exploiting so i've closed up for three pounds 76 there and it could have been better certainly
i don't think i played this market badly it was just a little bit of a frustrating market
which happens day in day out believe it or not and taking two three quid sometimes is something that
you just have to do so if we move on to the third and final race this one's a bit more interesting
a little bit clearer a bit of a better example for people that are looking to use
this bet fair trading strategy so the third race is newcastle race um the third race of the day
and you can see where eight minutes from the start market's not active at all at this point
in time a little bit more money matched on this one slightly more interesting to my novice race
so looking at the Betfair charts along the bottom there because they're always good to sort of weigh
up against each other although you do need to bear in mind that there is no time stamps on the
betfair chart so it can provide um some slightly warped information what separate video on the
channel we'll put in the end screen about that if you want to see that but i'm comparing them
against each other at this point in time again i'm trying to work out where is the money coming
now where is the money been where is the bias what is overpriced underpriced and where are we going
to get more than a 50 50 outcome on a position we take seeing the dark volume bars you can see
money coming into the market recently got that set up on the geeks toy for the last 40 seconds or so
so at this point in time i'm just trying to get a bit of a feel for what's going on now we'll
fast forward the recording a little bit once more up until the slightly more interesting stuff but
you can see while we're fast forwarding this here that the significant money or the sustained money
if you like has been on this uh north parade on the favorite there um it's been quite continuous
throughout the last minute or two and as we lead into the last sort of four and a half minutes
where the market gets a little bit more tasty we get the action on the tv i've got the live video
on my separate screen by the way for anyone who's wondering they're monitoring that at the same time
because although people like to get arbitrary figures you know when will the market pick up i
can't turn around and say to you four minutes every single time because it varies the tv
channels vary when they're adverts on vary who's you know different coverage a different interest
is always changing so you need to be flexible and malleable with that too which is probably a large
part of the problem for people that are trying to trade successfully a lot of the time because
a lot of different things are kind of moving but more money coming in for the favorite there and
so this is looking relatively significant also the third you can see that there's a little bit of a
flurry there in fact the third is looking a little bit more tasty given its price now the reason i
want to say that is look this price is up here at 6.2 um we see a little bit of money for that
previously the only one that's really um pushing against that in the alternate direction is the
favorite now the favorite is coming down to the 4.0 which is a crossover in the prices which adds
additional resistance for the price contracting so i'm looking for again a little bit similar
to that previous race a bit of a pivot situation where you know if the favorite bounces back out
this third favorite is now in the second ladder is being supported then we can sort of take that fork
from it and ride that little bit of momentum where obviously you know it's certainly not a
50 50 situation so having had a look at the odds checker prices as well this um third favorite has
already had some previous interest throughout the day so it's an interesting uh situation here even
though that's maybe not depicted very well on the betfair chart down the bottom there but this horse
appears to be um interesting which is my way if you want to call it if that's how it's pronounced
i'm terrible at pronouncing those names you can see over on the left there on the market overview
that is quite clear too the blue line is the horse that i've got an open position on here
so i'm taking a slightly longer term view sort of more of a medium to slightly longer term view
on this at this point in time and it's all about sort of i mean i feel quite confident looking at
this having seen all the different factors on the build up which is where most of the work is done
but if this bounces against us then i can close out quite quickly on a 150 stake there it's just
a double click and the activity is picking up so one thing that i really want to highlight
also is a lot of the actual movement proper movement that's sustained and more i don't want
to use the word predictable more obvious that unfolds is usually in the last few minutes okay
and sometimes it can be the last minute which seems really counterintuitive to anyone who's
trying to make money from trading because they're you know they're used to having an
hourly rate and all that kind of stuff but it's more like you sit and watch for a few minutes and
then you make all of your money in the space of two minutes most of the time and so just bear that
in mind but look the price is ticking down in our favor uh in our in our favorable direction sorry
just having a quick look at the time form cards there again see if there's anything i've missed
and it's always a case of what have i missed what's changing what what is uh likely to affect
this price movement but the price is starting to go in our direction so i'm not going to close out
the position as the saying goes you've got to let your profits run and you've got to close
out your losses that bit quicker we're now in the period where there's better flow of money in the
marketplace there's more money ticking up and it's easier to get out of our position be a win or loss
so i'm going to use that to my benefit what i'm not going to do is panic and go oh i'm in green
and take the money straight away which i think is probably something that a lot of people do
particularly when they're new in um but at this point in time i'm constantly asking myself the
same question with this Betfair trading strategy is it more is it a 50 50 decision the price goes
up and down right now or is it more favorable in one direction than the other now i've got a lay
position in the queue there i think there's a good chance that that will get matched in
the next minute or so hopefully we'll get a price even shorter and this will be a more predictable
situation whereby it was predictable in the sense that money was flowing into the market
so i was already riding the wave that was already happening is what i'm trying to say rather than
taking a punt on i think this horse is going to shorten because you know it runs well last time
or whatever so here's the interesting thing that probably i'm not talking about enough right now
is the money falling into market look at the active money falling into the market
no fancy gizmos or things required or deep form reading or secrets right it's just a plain
old-fashioned money falling into the market you can see money is falling in on the backside the
back money is taking the lay money is driving the price down okay and that was happening on a lower
scale earlier on but now we're into the business end of the race is actually happening continuously
and with larger stakes and continuing so i'm full of confidence at this point in time it's
only the fact that you know 38 we had to close that out now it's only the fact that the race is
due to go off and the horses are just coming out onto the course and i think the race goes off
about a minute or so late in the end but here's our position over on betfair again just to show
you the bets that are matched against each other back and lay and that's how we close out a profit
for 38 quid in that particular race no matter what the result but hopefully that video has been of
use in terms of your betfair trading strategies if you found it useful please don't forget to tap
the like button down below check out the links in the description and i'll see you on the next one
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