The speaker, Teacher Chen, provides updates on registration for a spiritual event, discusses his recent illness, and offers a detailed geopolitical analysis focusing on the Iran conflict, US foreign policy under Trump, and the broader global economic and political landscape, particularly concerning China and Europe.
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Hello everyone, I'm about to begin.
Hello everyone, I'm Teacher Chen.
Welcome to our live stream today.
Okay, let me start by saying
that the first thing we're talking about
is the 2005 Tianse Wufang Caoyuan
Tianse Buyun Li Dou Fa
Hui ( 天色五方草园天色补运李斗法会). We started registration
then . This time
, the registration process is the same. If you registered during
the Qingming Festival
, you can register directly with your account this time.
If you didn't
register during the Qingming Festival, you must register a new account
and add your family members.
That will also allow you to register smoothly. Okay
? Because we've implemented a new system
.
Why are we asking everyone
to fill out the registration information again
? Because in the past
, our system
had many advertisers
trying to get their email addresses
post ads in our system
, but I blocked them all.
That's true.
But every
day, how many people from all over the world
try to register as members?
Nearly
700 to 800 emails.
That's too many.
So, I've switched to a new system
to completely eliminate this problem
. Therefore,
please don't transfer their accounts here,
because if you do,
they'll cause trouble again
, which is also a problem.
So,
these advertising accounts
are a very troublesome thing.
Therefore, please register a new one,
which is less of a problem.
As for the Big Classroom, it
's because
you have to pay
to use it.
So there
's
no such thing as a free account.
So, your previous Big Classroom account
can be used directly in our
new Big Classroom. In
the new Big Classroom,
we have now launched
the so-called teaching assistant team.
If you
have any questions, you can ask them there.
If you are not satisfied with the answer
, or if you feel more confused the more
you ask, it's okay.
Just
leave a message for the teacher below,
and the teacher will receive a notification and
reply to you
.
You have already paid, so you don't need to change anything
, and you won't have to pay extra in the future.
It's to
allow everyone to
learn better during the entire process of using our service.
Okay, I'll turn on the air conditioning
. The second thing
is... the fourth thing...
well,
I want to tell you all...
because
I'm feeling unwell right now,
a
bit sick .
I've been down since Wednesday
,
and
I was down all week,
unable to do anything.
It's a rather serious cold,
I think.
Anyway, I saw a doctor who
said I'd been bedridden for four days.
So
, today, I could talk,
and before, I could talk,
but I couldn't maintain my energy level.
Sitting down, I might lose consciousness,
you know?
So, I've been bedridden for four days.
Of course,
many of you have seen that
I've updated 14 short videos
this week
, two videos a day.
But because I was about to collapse on Wednesday, before I
lay down,
I quickly recorded them all.
Because I received them
beforehand,
I recorded them first,
and then, in my last breath, I finished recording
them so as not to interrupt the process.
Teacher, you still need to give yourself more time to update.
Okay, let's maintain the new
discipline .
We've still been
updating short videos today,
so my
live stream today will be quite long.
I'll
try my best to finish, okay?
If I can't finish,
please
bear with me,
because it's a little tiring
. SUB,
dim the lights a bit.
I don't have
time to go over it today.
I just finished preparing all this
work.
Okay
, cough cough
, let me take a sip of water.
Hello, let's begin.
Of course, in this whole situation,
the most important relationship
is the
Iran war
we 've seen that
the overall pattern
is extremely unpredictable.
You see Trump
saying one minute that
the Strait is open,
the next minute saying it's not open
and he'll close it again.
So, the overall situation
is constantly changing.
Unpredictable and volatile?
To outsiders, it seems unpredictable and volatile
,
when I was lying in bed and discovered these things,
I felt there was no need to update them.
Why?
Because Trump is a man who doesn't keep his word.
This isn't just my personal opinion;
it's the whole world's opinion.
Trump is a man who doesn't keep his word.
He might say something today and
change his mind tomorrow.
And now it's even worse . He might say something
in the morning
and then say he's not doing it in the evening, right?
That's how it becomes
. So,
now the whole world knows that
Trump is like this...
I predicted
this about Trump
before, back
when he was running for his first term as president.
Those of you who
have followed me for a long time know
this. I've said before that
Trump
is very predictable,
so
it's easy to guess
what he'll do.
People didn't believe what he said
during his
first term, but they still somewhat believed him.
Now, during his second term,
the situation
is even more serious. It's like the first time everyone was just at a loss,
but because of the COVID-19 pandemic,
people were still reluctantly covering for the US.
The US lockdown period
was actually quite short;
their actual lockdown time
was only about three or four months
, including
a large amount of money Trump was handing out.
So, did he have any credit
? Honestly,
Trump did have some credit
, but
considering the interests of various countries around the world…
In fact, this consideration of interests is fundamentally flawed
because it doesn't align with the interests of other countries.
Like back then,
with the
US's foreign exchange speculation
, the Eurozone
bore a huge burden of exchange losses for the US.
You could say
that
European currencies
were discounted by 30%
to cover the US's deficit.
So, under such circumstances,
if you want to do this again,
back when he was campaigning,
I said that
if he won,
the situation would become even more problematic,
and the future world
would be divided into four major blocs.
Now, I know this, so
I won't repeat it.
Regarding the entire Iranian theater...
If you're asking when things will improve,
honestly,
according to our monthly forecast,
it's likely we'll have to wait until next month.
The probability of a complete negotiation this month,
with both sides withdrawing and going their separate ways
, is quite
low.
Why?
Because on April 13th, the US
announced
a blockade of Iranian ports and maritime trade.
It was around the time of our last live broadcast that
they announced it,
essentially sealing
off all Iranian ports
. Initially, they said they
would block the entire strait , but
later they only said they would block the ports
. This was meant to force Iran to comply, saying, "
You
can block
others, but not
me." If
I block
you, you block my exports;
if I block your imports, what happens?
If you block my imports, I block your exports—
does that mean
I'll just shut
everything down and nobody can play?
Either you open up,
then we can talk
; otherwise
,
you have to collect tolls with me.
Iran has said this too
; the US wants it to come in and get
a share, but
Iran refuses.
I think this is
a matter of individual countries' tariff sovereignty.
There aren't many
situations in the world where
you can collect tariffs on
behalf of others. For example, the US has built ports
or done similar things
for some African countries like Albania;
they collect tariffs
on behalf of others, and
this still exists today. In the past, of course, only China during the Qing Dynasty... The Treaty of
Urumqi
and other similar agreements
essentially meant that the Qing Dynasty handed over
its foreign exchange customs
to foreigners.
Did this have any advantages for China? Yes,
it
did.
Foreigners were better at collecting taxes because
they had established systems in
place. The Qing Dynasty couldn't collect taxes, but the foreigners collected
them for them. And they would share
the profits
with the Qing Dynasty.
They couldn't keep all the taxes
for themselves;
it was better for a portion of the taxes
to be kept by the foreigners and
a portion to be used by the Qing Dynasty
. For the foreigners and for the Qing Dynasty,
this was
the first time in thousands of years
of Chinese feudal history
that such a system had been established. Outsourcing the customs service
was one thing , but it meant outsourcing its own customs operations.
Iran couldn't accept this situation
because it was
tantamount to
surrendering its national sovereignty
to the United States.
This
was a difficult situation,
so
the Strait of Hormuz
remained closed until
yesterday.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that
US and Iran were supposed to talk
, but the US violated the ceasefire agreement
by not lifting the blockade.
They argued that
since Iran had fully
opened its borders,
the US should also open its borders,
since it was primarily
European and American ships
passing through.
The reason
is that Europe and America are major oil consumers,
and China is the largest.
However, China doesn't rely solely on the Strait of Hormuz;
it also
receives oil from Russia, the United States, and other parts of the world.
's not just about the Strait of Hormuz.
So, given this situation,
if I've opened up
and shown sincerity,
shouldn't the United States show sincerity too?
The answer is no
. On April 18th,
Chiang Kai-shek said, "Since
the United States isn't withdrawing its troops
and hasn't lifted the blockade
, there's no point in talking.
If the blockade continues,
what's the point of talking
?" This essentially means, "
I'm opening up, you're blocking,
so what's the point of further talks?
The blockade
has no bearing on the current situation." So, if things change,
talking to you doesn't mean surrendering,
right? Therefore, the situation is that
the Strait of Hormuz
was opened and then closed again within a single day
. Oh, what's the situation
now?
It's still not over.
And the impact on shipping is
basically
that many rumors are circulating,
such as
Chinese ships rushing through,
or
the US giving its own companies special
passage through the strait.
Actually,
what's confirmed so far is that
only one or two super cruise
ships seem to have passed through;
others are more difficult.
As for whether China has sent the 05th Regional Naval Base
to escort them, that
's currently... It's quite difficult
because the 05 region
isn't actually going
to the Strait of Hormuz.
It's not there to fight the US
, nor is it for escort missions
. The point
is simple: the US
has amassed a massive
military force
in the Strait of Hormuz—land,
sea, and air forces—
all on a single ship.
Even the Marine Corps,
which is
considered part of the navy
, is being deployed
there.
So many ships
are constantly transporting supplies,
including THAAD systems
, various missiles
, and drones.
So what is the Chinese 05 region doing there?
's quite
simple
...
I'm going to see how you fight
. My ship is right here.
You can say I'm escorting them,
or you
can say I'm protecting Iran, whatever you want to say,
I'm not responding.
My ship is right there
. I can see
you take off, I can see you
fire, I can see you get
hit. I just want to see how you fight.
So this becomes a battlefield
issue.
So
now the whole market has become very interesting.
Or rather, it's a battlefield.
The whole battlefield is very interesting
because everyone wants to fight
, but no one dares to fight.
Because if you fire,
your military secrets will be observed by China.
And China
is now like the US in World War II,
right? I didn't participate in the war, so
what's it to me? Ah,
I didn't participate in the war, right?
So what does
your fighting and
mutual attrition
have to do with me? The US had already proposed this idea
before the Pearl Harbor attack.
Anyway, I'll just watch, right
? Whether we fight or not is another
matter. My ships are here,
my planes are there
, right? I don't have any hostile intentions,
so that's it.
So, under this situation,
why is the US still so
hesitant ?
The problem is that China sent troops,
but it wasn't for escort.
If you just escort them like that,
firstly, it's not cost-effective,
and secondly,
international powers will think, "Hey,
there's a problem.
Why can you secretly communicate with Iran ? If
you secretly communicate with Iran,
can you help me out
, right
?" They might as well form a UN army
to maintain its escort,
which would be tantamount to violating Iranian sovereignty.
It is said that Liu Wu, who holds great power there,
is in a state of silence.
Is that useful?
It has indeed played a role
on this battlefield,
making others hesitant to act.
This is a very interesting situation.
On the other hand
, how you conduct these negotiations
actually has a significant impact
, namely
, Israel
. We know that
when we talked about it last week, we
already said
that talking about Yahoo
would not end the so-called Iran war.
No, it wouldn't end
because if it did, he would go to jail,
right? Right now, Iran
is in Israel. Let's talk about their internal affairs.
Now the court wants to hold a second hearing.
Whether you want
to appear in court
is your business.
But
I
don't know about
the local Israeli legal system.
However, you can't be absent from trials too many times.
If you are absent from trials too many times,
then
according to the laws of various places that our
teachers taught us
in the past
, because I studied things from decades ago,
it's possible that they
could forcibly arrest
you or impeach you.
There's a possibility of this
because Israel's military power
is constantly moving
towards Lebanon. When
you go to Lebanon
, of course, their advantage is relatively high.
If you want to eliminate Hezbollah,
but... You can say
you want to eliminate a certain militia group
, but the problem is
you can't send troops into someone's home
and say you're going to kill their militia.
That
's illegal
under any international law, right
?
It's like someone going into your house to
check if you're wasting money—
is that acceptable?
No,
you can't do that.
So, when they talked about peace talks—
Israel, Lebanon,
and Lebanon
were supposed to
have a ten-day
ceasefire agreement
? But before the ceasefire, they
bombed southern Lebanon
, killing
over 100 people.
So why is
that? The international community as a whole
saw virtually no sympathy
for Israel after the bombing.
The reason is this:
how can you sympathize?
If someone bombs you,
might lose a few or a dozen people,
maybe injure
some
, but a single bombing
usually results in over 100 deaths.
Human lives aren't measured in numbers;
each one is precious.
But
that's the reality – you can't
maintain your international standing.
So I think
Israel is now overdrawing its international credit
. In the future,
it might recover its economy
quickly through capital repatriation
, but restoring international trust
will be quite difficult
because Iran is unlikely to be able to do so. Defeating him
is that simple, right
? You can't defeat Iran. You could
n't even defeat Afghanistan
, that graveyard of empires, so how could you possibly defeat
Iran, which is even more powerful
than Afghanistan?
Therefore, under these circumstances
, Israel can't defeat Iran,
and neither can the US.
Neither of these
two countries can eliminate Iran.
Besides, they now have a new government, and
they are united, right?
If that old man, Nehru,
were still alive,
there might be some inside-outside cooperation, right?
But if you strip
away
the old man's underwear,
how are you going to get the people to accept a new,
supported government
? It's not that
they recruit their own soldiers; they all have their own people joining the army.
Then the entire battlefield becomes
one where Iran is invincible,
at least at this stage.
Plus, defeating it is very simple;
you have to send land troops. Sending land
is something the US can't afford to exhaust its national strength
because Iran is too large.
Previously, the US fought the Korean War
and the Vietnam War,
both against elongated countries, and those wars gave the US a lot of trouble.
The Korean War and the Vietnam War
were two major battles
in modern US history where
the US didn't win
. You can't say they lost, okay?
Saying they lost wouldn't be fair, right?
No, you can't say they lost;
it's just that they didn't achieve the expected victory on those
battlefields.
So,
you can't defeat a long, narrow country like Vietnam,
and you can't even defeat half of South Korea.
So how do you fight?
This situation
makes it seem like Iran is unbeatable.
If it's unbeatable,
why does it continue fighting?
Well, let me put it another way:
it wanted to acquire Iceland
,
or whatever
it's called, Greenland,
and collect transit fees,
right? You can imagine
how much interest it has
in the Strait of Hormuz. Even at the risk of international condemnation,
it feels it's its right.
It's collected
protection money
, so what it wants is to open up the entire port
and then find a way to intervene.
But if Iran doesn't back down
, the US is in a difficult position.
Let's look at
the Strait of Hormuz from another angle
. They said they'd talk about it this week
, but the question is whether they can actually talk.
So, the US's current attitude
is that it's constantly increasing
its troop presence. Right now,
the US is still increasing its troop presence,
from 10,000 to
20,000, now to 50,000
, with a continuous stream of troops
coming in.
And you're telling me
, is it even possible to
actually talk to them? Yes, it's possible.
This is something we can discuss.
Why?
Because this week, although they've been constantly reinforcing their troops,
putting pressure on us
, and even threatening to
attack our personnel and facilities
and wipe out our entire families
, the problem is that
the ammunition they're bringing in
isn't as much as we'd imagine.
And a large portion
of the heavily fortified ships and artillery they're bringing in
comes from behind our reinforcements
, but we can't replace those coming from the front.
For example, the USS Lincoln, do you
understand what I mean?
It means that the soldiers coming from behind
aren't rotating with the soldiers in front
; when everyone is crammed into one place,
this situation
violates a fundamental principle of warfare
. Let me give you an example, okay?
Okay, so during the Mongol westward expansion,
they
kept advancing triumphantly, right?
They charged straight into Europe,
which
was incredibly frightening .
Not to mention Europe,
even Khwarazm before them
had been defeated.
Khwarazm...
who is
that? Iran, I guess . Haha, this guy got defeated,
didn't even know his own ancestors' names,
he was in a state of utter nonsense
. So, under these circumstances,
were the Mongol army victorious in every battle?
Not in every battle.
Why?
There's a famous battle
between the Mongols and Khwarazm.
What was it? Not the Battle of Yulong,
but the Battle of Balwan
.
I think it
was Balwan,
or something like that. It was
like a light
, that was when their general Shikif Tugh
led 80,000 men
to attack
an Iranian force.
I suddenly forgot the name of their new Sultan,
it was Muhammad's son, Jalal
ad-Din. The Sultan of
Jalal
ad-Din wanted to fight a decisive battle with him.
The result
was a major defeat for the Mongol army.
Why did the Mongol army suffer such a defeat?
Almost the entire 80,000
Mongol soldiers
perished on the spot
. That's the
official figure, but I think it
was probably less than 10,000.
Because each soldier was multiplied by 10, or
multiplied by 10.
But under these circumstances,
why did they lose?
Because the battle took place in a large basin.
Jalal
ad-Din's
army was relatively small,
while the Mongol army
was much larger and stronger.
It seemed like a crushing defeat,
a so-called 4:6 ratio.
It seemed like a clear victory.
It should have been the Mongol army's
Shijihutuhu who won
, but why
did Jalal ad-Din win in the
end? Shijihutuhu
had assembled all his troops,
hoping to form a large,
imposing
army to crush them
. However
, because of the basin terrain,
his horses couldn't spread out.
In the past , their horses
fought in open field battles,
but now they were fighting in a basin.
So,
they had to concentrate their forces within the basin.
When the enemy charged, Shijihutuhu's army had nowhere to run;
they could only
engage in close combat. The collisions,
bumps
, falls, and
trampling of the horses
threw them into disarray,
as horses are easily startled
. So,
once
Jalal ad-Din sent his suicide squad
, the Mongol army
couldn't fight back.
Why? Because everyone was huddled together,
preventing them from using their preferred cavalry tactics
or the three-man formation.
Thus,
at that point,
in the Battle of Baluwan,
prehistoric Utow suffered a major defeat.
Only then did Genghis Khan tell him
that it was because he used the wrong tactics;
he should
have ... It involves
arranging
all the troops and making good use of the keel, a characteristic of field warfare.
Then, using the three-three method, you
continuously encircle and
annihilate
them.
Because if the enemy breaks out
as a suicide squad,
you only need to use the three-three tactic
to attack them from the flanks and
wear them down.
Then you can advance
in from the middle.
Basically, you are unlikely to lose.
So, looking
the Strait of Hormuz now, the United States is constantly sending its troops to the Strait of Hormuz. It's like
they have a
large
army
constantly gathering
in a place that is probably only a few hundred
kilometers
away .
Now, it seems like
it's not that far, right? Even if
you put in tens of trillions of warships,
you can't fill it.
If you look at it from a human perspective,
that's true .
But if you look at it from a satellite perspective,
it's like they're all packed together
. It's no different
from the other two.
Because satellites can scan anywhere
. Because they can easily take pictures of you from anywhere within a few hundred kilometers.
Do you all understand what the teacher means?
Within a few hundred kilometers,
all your troop deployments and formations
are basically visible to
anyone in China.
Because you're
basically in one place
and won't move much,
even if you do move,
you're already gathered there.
How you deploy them
is all under someone else's watchful eye.
Satellites
aren't just for the US
or Europe
; Russia and China also have them.
Under these circumstances,
deploying troops there
is basically a very foolish thing
to do. Because you're
concentrating tens of thousands of troops in one place.
Plus,
the US Secretary of War,
formerly the Secretary of Defense
and now
the Secretary of War, Hexes,
is a man with a screw loose.
And I don't think it's unfair
to say he has a screw loose.
First, he was making money by
firing generals;
he fired many three-star generals.
Most importantly,
he didn't implement
a rotation system for troops.
So, the Lincoln was on missions
for over 200 days...
200+ days?
You think it's just working 200+ days
? It's that simple,
folks? You're not in the navy.
In the navy, if you need 200+ days
, you have to be in a fleet like the Goodwill Fleet. In
the Goodwill Fleet, you can still go out for a break
because we have rest days.
What are rest days
? They're for everyone to take turns resting.
One of your cabins
is on leave today,
another cabin is on leave tomorrow.
That's what
we call rest days
. It means
that your cabin can have a break.
You can go out for a break in Zhongshan City
or in a specific deck area.
But it's different when you're at war
. Can you rest days when you're at war?
You can't rest days
. You're on combat readiness anytime, anywhere
. You're on combat readiness every day, every hour.
So later, it was discovered
that American aircraft carriers
are very good.
They're like targets,
you know?
When their toilets burst,
what happens?
When they dig them out, they find
things like
ropes and clothes
. So the ropes
are the kind made of hemp rope.
Some of our navy's are stuffed with hemp rope.
Go in and let him explode.
What does "explode" mean?
Why would you let him explode
? Wouldn't that make you unhappy?
Let me tell you , many Americans
are elites
, that's true. Many people mistakenly believe that
America is the most technologically
advanced country in the world,
and that everyone there is smart.
No, I'm telling you,
more than 70% of Americans
are really not as smart as our Taiwanese high school students.
I'm telling you this seriously.
70% of Americans
' experience
is less than that of our Taiwanese high school students. Oh,
I'm sure
of this. It's really not as good as our Taiwanese high school students.
So their thinking is very simple:
if I break the toilet, and
a survival crisis occurs,
the toilet explodes and
floods the floor with that
stinky
mess of excrement and urine,
then the ship has to dock to repair it. Even if you arrest people, you have to arrest the rest of the crew, right
?
No
,
they
won't care. You just
have to repair it on the spot,
and there's nothing you can do.
Then the second thing that happened was that
the laundry room caught
This is... This is a big deal,
isn't it? So, since the laundry room is on fire,
do you want to go ashore?
Okay, let's go ashore,
let's go to Kuwait.
Okay, after you go ashore, what happens
? Everyone thinks...
Okay,
they're burning their own business,
I'm not responsible for laundry,
damn it, that has nothing to do with me.
And the toilet area has nothing to do with me either.
I can at
least go ashore and take a break, right? Even if it's the base in Kuwait,
I can just go up here, stretch,
take a walk like Captain Jack Sparrow
, make a phone call home to let them know I'm safe, take a picture, have a snack, right? Or take a nap, right? I can lie down and sleep, I can sleep in my bed, right? Everyone, the navy's bed is a lunchbox
you
know
?
The
puffin
bed
,
it
's
a
single bed
, but it's an aluminum box,
the puffin bed is an aluminum box .
This aluminum box
can be opened,
so we call it a lunchbox,
you know?
So this aluminum box is a bed,
and when you open it,
inside is your inner room.
The army's personal locker
is a metal cabinet on the side,
but the navy's personal locker...
because
you know how
it sways at sea,
you can't use your upright personal locker.
You have to use
a bed, which is the personal locker,
because it's flat
and everything is laid flat.
Because the sea sways
and rattles
,
you put the personal locker
there,
and on top of it, you put a small mattress,
and then a small
single bed, or even a little bit of space,
so you lie down there.
And because
the cabin
height is very limited
, you can't sit up
like that on a navy ship.
You can only get in and out of bed. Especially
on their formal warships,
every second counts.
In this situation
, with fire and
clogged toilets
, many American officers and soldiers
had to sleep on the ground, right? They had to sleep in
sleeping bags on the ground
, barely getting a proper rest. When they finally
reached shore,
they were supposed to relax, right?
But what's interesting is that they
didn't.
The US Navy Command
sent eight inspectors
to detain everyone on the ship,
questioning them one by one.
"You clogged the toilet, right? It was
n't yours, so
why your name?
" they asked.
Every single officer and soldier was treated as a suspect.
It's like
escaping one tiger's den
only to enter another wolf's lair.
Holy crap,
I couldn't even get a break for
over 200 days!
I'm not kidding,
I'm telling you guys,
over 200 days
is really tough.
Like when I went to the Matsu base,
we were there as part of a support mission .
Even though I was there, I was still a soldier.
I couldn't say, "
My ancestors are here, you have to treat me well!"
Nobody paid any attention, right?
So back then,
I couldn't take a break for three months.
For three months, you could only stay in the camp.
You couldn't take leave.
You could only carry out those certificates. I was stuck there
for 100 days.
I felt so stifled, right?
After three months, you could take a ship back to Taiwan for a break,
just kidding, right?
That's a different story. When you
get back to Taiwan, you can sleep for two days.
Sleeping is fine,
just sleep for two days.
Forget everything else,
because we were back for 11 days,
sorry,
I still had a cold.
So under these circumstances,
the US military's supply... After that,
he couldn't rotate
with his frontline soldiers,
so what kind of logistics and supply was needed?
He hadn't
really prepared for the so-called logistical support. Is
that how it is with the USS Lincoln
? Of course,
others, you've been there,
fighting until February
, it's been dozens of days,
you can't take leave , and you
don't know how much longer the fighting will last.
This
will cause great trauma
to the soldiers themselves.
And it's not like you're just sitting there and no
one dares to shoot you.
It's really just one or two times that someone dares to shoot you, right
? Those pilots who
flew out,
you don't know if they can fly back.
So last time, several
F-35s were shot down, right
? You don't know if they can come back.
You're making the Reaper drone. Well
, if
the drones in the past weren't shot down, that's fine. But
pessimistically, I'm going to...
I don't know if I can come back, right ?
In the past, I would
go and
come back immediately.
In the bar, I didn't even drink alcohol,
right? I added ice
to my whisky. I would blow it up before the ice melted and come back.
You can think of it that way, right? In
ancient times, there was the story of warming wine to kill Hua Xiong.
Now, there's the story of whisky with ice to bomb Iran
, right? But that won't work either
, right? Because Iran has something that's so powerful,
it can shoot down F-35s and
so on.
And with Iran's drones...
You do
n't know if there will be an attack, so
even if you 're on the vast ocean
, you can't feel relaxed
because of the endless expanse.
But if you 're standing on
the shore,
looking at the boundless sea,
you feel exhilarated,
you feel a sense of life's philosophy
, you feel that nothing in this world is difficult.
What do you feel?
All phenomena
are illusory.
That's what it's like to be on the shore.
Why? Because when you're on the shore,
you feel very safe.
Behind you is land,
land is your home.
I'm telling you
, everyone, when you're on a ship, you know that land is your home,
no matter where
you are , land is home
, right? You're back in your own country, your home.
So, with your back to the land
and your feet firmly on the ground,
you see the ocean in
a completely open and expansive state.
But when you're on a ship
and looking at the sea, oh,
that 's terrifying.
I'm telling
you
, that time was truly terrifying.
You have no idea
if you can come back up
after going down
, especially at night
. At the seaside ,
unlike when we go to places like Badouzi
or the Bund in Shanghai,
where you can
see lights
and bright lights,
there
's nothing you can see with your own eyes.
The sea is so dark
you can't see your hand in front of your face;
all you see is a vast expanse of blackness.
You can't see anything
. That kind of darkness really tests a person's mentality.
So, many crew members on deep-sea fishing vessels,
you might
not know this,
suffer from some psychological
trauma. Why? Because when you're facing an endless expanse,
you start to think a lot.
Plus, there might be arguments
with your fellow crew members,
right? It
becomes like someone could kill you at any time and throw you overboard, and
you can't do anything about it. You can't
call the
police
, you can't call the coast guard, and
the coast guard won't come
So, many people just disappear at sea.
The mental pressure
on seafarers
is more than ten times
greater than on land.
Let me make this clear:
it's more than ten times greater.
It's a state of extreme fear
and mental tension.
Oh, teacher, isn't
the cabin inside the ship just
like on land?
You'll never forget
being at sea.
Do
n't tell me that aircraft carriers are so big
and well-equipped
that they
're no different from land.
That's impossible
. Impossible, okay?
Everyone remembers
that the biggest problem
for the US right now
is that its Secretary of War
is incomprehensible . He's
like a battalion
or company commander—
he used to be just a company commander.
And when you put someone with no war experience
in charge of a war,
their generals are incompetent.
This is what happens when the army is exhausted.
That's the current situation .
From the US's continuous
troop buildup to now,
we can call it a
threat
in terms of numbers
and technology.
But these soldiers, when fighting,
have very low morale.
Even if
they're motivated to fight and
fight to get home
, their spirit is hard to maintain.
And Iran itself
is a graveyard of empires.
In a massive imperial graveyard
, once you engage in land warfare
, you're constantly on the edge of a knife.
If your morale is low beforehand
, you won't be able to endure
the constant tension
on land.
You might think this
is less of a problem
in Venezuela, but Venezuela is different.
doesn't dare bomb
American destroyers
or warships ;
they don't have the capability.
So they're waiting for
the US to come ashore and engage
in a decisive battle.
And this time, the US deliberately doesn't come ashore.
So I'm watching them closely.
When they start to relax their guard,
I see
signs
and quickly capture them.
So... After completing his internship
and capturing the boss Laro, bringing him back to the United States,
he felt compelled to monitor Khamenei. He believed
that if he persisted,
he could find a weakness
, bring him back
, or eliminate him.
, he succeeded,
but he couldn't bear the consequences.
Because one side is Central and South America,
the other the Middle East—
two different ethnicities,
different geopolitical relationships
, and different attributes. When
you put them on the same scale,
it's easy to make misjudgments.
The current battlefield situation
is far from optimistic,
because for the US military,
it's a very unfavorable situation.
You say Iran is preparing for war every day,
but does that mean its own morale is low? There's no pressure,
of course there's pressure, right?
Who doesn't have pressure
when they're fighting? Even if you're not working, you're stressed.
Imagine you had to work two months straight without a vacation,
wouldn't you go crazy?
For example, if you were a nurse
working two months of one night shift and
one long night shift, wouldn't you want to kill
the head nurse?
Would n't
you want to kill everyone you see
? Right? But fighting is different
. Because you're only physically
and mentally exhausted
, but they're facing life and death.
But since they're on land, the
land helps absorb the pressure,
so the pressure is indeed much higher.
So, if you use that method
to find family
, you really can. Just make
a phone call,
and you really can find them. In
the US, you call... Can
I call my family?
No, okay,
that's not possible.
Even going to the toilet requires a four-hour wait,
let alone
trying to call home.
It's a difficult
situation
. So, in this context,
Iran is still in a position
of being well-rested and ready to fight.
The US wants to use its weakened military strength to negotiate with Iran.
I think Iran's situation is simple:
either open up completely
, or come ashore and fight,
let's see who wins.
Of course, Iran will suffer the most damage,
that's for sure. Even if
the US military is weak,
a starved camel is still bigger than a horse.
So, the US's military strength will always be stronger than Iran's
, but whether it can withstand attrition is another question
. Regarding this issue,
the teacher has always had a special...
I've tried analyzing the war
with all sorts of
AI on the market
, like Germany,
JBT, Cloud
, DC, and
all the other
AIs,
but if you really
believe they can make the war seem reasonable,
don't trust Western AI. When you're looking at this war from a global perspective,
don't rely on Western AI
because it's based on the American perspective
and the assumption that the US is the most powerful force.
For example, a GVT professor said that
Iran is the troublemaker
in this war, and the US is maintaining peace.
I found that strange.
Why
? Because he said Iran
didn't obey American control, etc.
I found it odd
that they bombed
and killed Iran's leader, and then people say Iran is creating
problems.
So this AI is quite politically correct;
no wonder it's so open. What can AI achieve?
It can secure long-term contracts with the US Department of Defense.
Claude and
Germany are in the same boat.
They're adhering to political correctness.
When we look at
the use of AI now,
you need to know one thing
: you need to ask
multiple questions
and gather evidence from various sources
because AI is currently being contaminated
. And AI is quite heavily contaminated now.
Under these circumstances,
if you try to prolong the war,
and then drag it out for another three months, let
me put it simply:
in the Iranian theater, if it drags on for another three months
, the US military will collapse without a fight.
They can't hold on any longer.
They themselves
don't have rotation
and can't handle logistics.
If they hold out for another three months,
the US military will collapse without a fight.
They must reach a conclusion
this month or next month
, or accept mediation from other countries,
so that the US can step down gracefully
. Otherwise, the US cannot sustain itself
because, from the perspective of the overall battlefield
, time is on the side of Iran... Iran, by
simply hiding underground like a groundhog,
can wear down a long-distance,
invading army.
Throughout world history,
the probability of winning
a long-range raid is low . Think
of generals like Wei Qing, Huo Qubing
, or Li Fei and Li Guang.
In other places,
like
the Mongols attacking Khwarazm,
they would simply raid
and wipe them out.
The probability of
winning a long-distance
attack on the spot is low
, but the same applies to modern warfare.
Winning a long-distance attack is difficult.
The US has fought so many countries; how could they win?
In Afghanistan
, they only
captured the capital.
The US fought
a 20-year war;
did they capture other places?
No, they only captured the capital. They
couldn't capture other places
.
So, in foreign wars
, the US model
has been proven to be one of inevitable failure in long-distance warfare.
So why do they still do it?
It's quite simple:
a combination of an arrogant and conceited president,
plus a Secretary of War
who was—well, we
can't say he was stupid,
we can just say he was a bit wishful
, a bit stubborn
, but still had a little bit of persistence—
resulting in the current state of the United States.
Given this predicament
, I maintain
my overall prediction
for May .
If an agreement isn't reached in April,
other major powers will intervene in May.
It's simple:
if I drag it out until May,
the
US
will eventually reach its breaking point.
Then, Russia
, China
, or Pakistan
could intervene and potentially resolve the issue.
However
, if an agreement is reached in April,
the
US might still
back out
in May
because it has the
means
to resupply.
So, I hope
this situation
escalates quickly
so the US realizes it
ca
n't win and backs down.
this situation , as we discussed earlier with Israel,
it's very difficult for them to occupy southern Lebanon.
They're just stalling for time
because southern Lebanon
cannot be ceded to
Israel for settlement
or any other purpose .
Israel's only demand
for Lebanon's entry
is the removal of Allah
from its territory. Is it possible for the party to arm itself
?
It's impossible.
They're a militia organization.
How can you disarm them?
No, you can't just hide in civilian homes.
They're civilians,
and then they become a militia organization.
How can you disarm them ?
You give them two knives,
two curved knives
, and they say, " Hmm
, we've disarmed
!" Is that possible? No,
what they want
is territory.
But territory
is something
other European countries or the US
won't let you agree
to.
Why? Because the US hasn't gained territory,
hasn't benefited. Under these circumstances,
they won't
let Israel expand its territory.
Territorial expansion is still something;
once you expand, you have to be able to defend it.
Currently,
even if there's peace talks in southern Lebanon,
it can't be defended.
But in fact, there haven't been any peace talks
, right? Zero-Star Wars are still going on.
Can you say it's wrong?
Because the ones attacking you
aren't the Lebanese government forces,
they're the Houthis, they
're Hezbollah
, right? So Israel retaliates, retaliates against
whom?
The Lebanese people, damn
it, it's strange.
These people are crazy.
So, how can you fight them now?
From Israel's perspective,
you're basically playing Jack. Time
is a form of blackmail.
No matter how I fight
, besides killing,
I basically get nothing. The current situation
with Israel
has become like this. In the past
, international organizations tried to mediate
the situation in the Gaza Strip.
Why? Because Hamas
fired 5,000 rockets first.
So, when Israel retaliated,
no one objected.
But what did Hezbollah do? Hezbollah
is a militia organization;
it's wrong for them to go into another country,
right? So, under these circumstances,
Israel is saying, "
I'm fighting a war I can't get anything from."
Even with the Xi'an
militia, it's the same
. I can't get anything
from this war.
I'm fighting for the sake of fighting,
but why?
Is it about fighting for the sake of fighting,
or does it go back to the point
about Yahoo's 16 years in power
? If
he didn't fight, he'd go to jail.
Why should I go to jail? Why
shouldn't I fight
? It's better to sacrifice my own people than others
. On the battlefield, you're killing Israelis
, and these aren't even their highest-ranking nobles,
just ordinary people.
What do the Israelis have to do with me?
very sorry, let me have
a drink of water. Ah
, there's absolutely no other way.
So, under these circumstances,
Israel has entered a stalemate
. If it really wanted to launch an
attack on Iran,
it wouldn't be able to handle it.
So why is it only attacking Lebanon
and not Iran?
It's simple. If you attack
Iran, Iran will retaliate
, right? Retaliate
! I haven't replenished my ammunition yet!
Now they've carried out this violation... Even if it's just for 10 days
under a halt,
right?
Then you, Israel, could increase
your missiles
by a few hundred
or even a few thousand
.
So, could I
increase my own defense capabilities?
Because
Lebanon has the capability to attack
, but Iran has... well,
if they enter this situation
and I don't attack Iran
, what happens?
First, you can't
use nuclear weapons.
Second, I can replenish my ammunition
. If Iran doesn't attack
, Iran won't attack me.
He's grasping this logic;
he has to watch the teacher's live stream, right?
So, it's "
I won't attack you, I won't attack you,
I'll attack your little brother,
okay?"
This situation makes it very difficult for the US
because it's hard for them to step down gracefully.
Because Iran says, "You must not attack Lebanon
, otherwise we can't do anything.
But if we don't attack, they'll support us, and we'll go to jail."
So, do you think Trump will sacrifice himself
to support them
? He dares, I believe he doesn't,
because of his model,
his advisors
... currently, what we know
is that over 60%
or 70% are of Chinese descent.
So what do you do?
These people are watching Trump closely.
Can you do this?
Including his arms dealers...
It was also done by the Z ethnic group,
so the whole situation
became a drag on
. Okay, we can continue to observe this situation
and then
talk about it.
Okay, everyone,
what's the situation?
Any problems
? The lights are too bright
, dim them a bit.
That light just fell down by itself,
so there's no light now
Pan Jinlian generates electricity with her teeth.
This Taoist priest Wu is eating maltose.
I don't really agree with
our country importing
sprouted potatoes from the US.
That one inside was originally a sprouted potato.
Because we studied traditional Chinese medicine,
we know
that sprouted potatoes are inedible.
I'm serious, no
matter how you cook them,
they
're inedible.
I really think
there's a right way to make money, and you need
to have a conscience. If the US makes money like this
, I think their conscience has been eaten by dogs.
Because sprouted potatoes are absolutely inedible, okay?
Everyone, if you buy sprouted potatoes,
don't think you can just cut off the sprouts and eat them
. No way !
They contain solanine, which
is poisonous.
Okay, they really shouldn't be eaten
. Don't buy sprouted potatoes.
You need
to be careful about the elderly in your family.
Sprouted potatoes are
inedible
. For example, if
you buy potatoes from Costco or other supermarkets,
they've already been made to prevent sprouting.
Not all potatoes will sprout.
Potatoes bought in Taiwan will sprout,
but
if you import them from the US... Potatoes
, normally, don't sprout
because they've already been de-sprouted
to prevent sprouting.
But if they sell sprouted potatoes,
it's like bringing garbage to Taiwan.
Taiwanese
people can't eat them, and
you can't feed them to pigs
because they contain toxins.
Okay,
Japanese imperialism is indeed stirring up trouble
because they've been trying
to curry favor with the US.
So,
they've upgraded China's diplomatic status from a US-China relationship to
that of an important neighbor.
This situation does indeed downgrade China
, but China doesn't
care.
Because you have great backbone
—that's the skill you need to survive.
Japan's current situation is that you lack...
You don't have a particularly outstanding industry, so
how long can you sustain it?
That's a question mark
. Even rice isn't enough;
your grain supply is the same as Chang'an's, right?
The end of the Tang Dynasty
was because grain was very expensive
, wasn't
it? Even Japan,
which absorbed Chinese culture,
should know that if grain prices are high
, people can't eat their fill,
and the economy can't be good.
Okay, so
the 8,000-year-old prince suggested going to Henan to help clear mines.
Will that happen?
I don't know.
Who is the 8,000-year-old prince?
I can't deny his endorsement.
I don't know
about the impact of the US and China on agriculture.
There's no fertilizer to make, so we can make
those derivative fertilizers,
like urine...
Whether it's nitrogen fertilizer or
other similar products, there are problems,
and the impact is significant
. But even with a significant impact,
you have to consider the scope of the impact.
So, for Europe and America,
the impact is relatively large.
Other places
, like China
, can tolerate it.
However, it's not that
everything can be completely replaced.
It's that China's own reserves
are temporarily tolerable.
It doesn't mean that it can do without these things
. No,
it's not like that.
Japan's Self-Defense Forces
provoking the Taiwan Strait, the US
letting its allies constantly harass
China, is that a trap?
China will not take the bait.
China will not make any major
military threats this year
because it's unnecessary
. You know,
China only needs to get through this year.
It
can act freely now.
Do you understand what I mean, teacher?
2026 is very dangerous
, but China has no need to take
risks
because this year is inherently a year of war and famine.
In such times,
whoever doesn't step in will only survive.
Do you understand what I mean, teacher?
This kind of thing,
this kind of fortune
, isn't something only I, Teacher Chen, know.
I also learned it from
the long-standing tradition of Chinese Taoism.
Do they... Are all the masters weaker than me?
Are they 1,000 times stronger than me?
Right?
Their national advisors, various schools and sects are all over there.
Isn't the president of Longhu Mountain also over there ? He's
much stronger than me.
So,
he's there, he's still there,
he's still there.
So
, basically, he's there. He's
telling me to stay put
and not engage in any military crises
, then everything will be fine.
When everyone's economy collapses
and the army is exhausted,
what will he do then?
What's wrong with China's strategy of waiting for the enemy to tire themselves
out?
This teacher is here, in that short video
, talking about Li Xin and Wang Jian. Hey,
one is charging forward,
the other is waiting in ambush.
I'll just station my troops here and wait for you to get tired of yelling
and for my troops to rest before I set off.
What can you do to me
then? I can just send troops to observe
you now, right?
We can observe you from all sides and even exchange supplies.
What can you do to me then?
These are all problems.
Speaking of passing through the Taiwan Strait
, China doesn't need to react too much
because you wouldn't dare to show your weapons, right?
If you pass through the Taiwan Strait, and
they make some flanking maneuvers in your economic areas,
who will
suffer? Japan will suffer, okay
? Thank you, Professor Qu
. Thank you, that Wang Wang
, uh, DW.com.
Thank you for your sponsorship.
Some people support me, some people
support me financially.
Thank you everyone.
Digging up the sprouted buds
and eating them thoroughly is not okay.
You can't even get one sprout. If you get one sprout,
the
whole
plant will basically contain solanine.
Seriously
, let's not even talk
about Western medicine;
even Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM)
will tell you
that every bite you eat—
every sprouted potato—is poisonous.
Don't disbelieve me.
Western and TCM doctors will certainly
tell you that the poison
will be metabolized
in your body. But from a TCM perspective,
it's very difficult.
Because once it's damaged, it damages your five internal organs. When
your internal organs are damaged
, it's not a question of whether the toxins are present
; it's that your organs are already damaged.
You need to tell me how to
deal with
it. Even if you're old
, you can't be that naturally
strong—even
young people don't have that chance
because they're injured.
They just have a longer blood pool
, but older people have shorter blood pools.
So how do you say that?
Don't underestimate the impact of food on the body.
There will definitely be some harm .
For example, I used to drink cola all the time
, which was harmful.
I drink cola very little now.
It might sound unbelievable
, but I've really reduced it a lot.
Okay, because cola itself is also toxic.
You all need to understand
this
. Food safety is very important.
Okay, everyone, look around
. We've found that all the places are completely unacceptable. Oh,
no, absolutely not!
And what else?
You wouldn't believe it, Changping was
and filmed.
This is also an incident
. Indeed, whether it's Zhao Kuo or Li Xin,
they were basically both famous generals.
It's just that they
were born in the wrong era.
Because Li Xin and Zhao Kuo were both newcomers.
They were other great generals
who had fought their whole lives,
right?
Fighting their whole lives... The top scholar is different
from the newly crowned champion.
If they can be trained for another ten years,
I'm telling you
, that's their world.
So, before he grows up, everyone
should try to get rid of him.
This mentality has existed for a long time.
Okay,
later we'll talk about the Warring States Policy.
Okay, teacher will talk about the Warring States Policy in short videos.
There are many more, such
as the Warring States Policy,
Zizhi Tongjian, the Analects
, Mencius, and
the Doctrine of the Mean.
I'm talking about them all now.
Okay
, teacher is actively updating.
You should have seen that
what I'm talking about this time is real.
I'm actively updating. Okay,
now let's look at it from the opposite perspective.
What's interesting
is that the European
and American economies
... Actually, you've all noticed something.
The current situation is that you simply can't...
The international situation is such that
the Iranian battlefield
is unlikely to improve
. They're stuck there –
one side won't step down,
the other won't surrender, and
the other insists on fighting for their own interests.
Everyone
sees this, not just me, Mr. Chen.
Everyone in the world sees this,
including you, right?
Under these healthy, locked-in conditions,
why are the US
and European stock markets
consistently so strong?
Right? Because after they talk,
oil prices immediately drop by 10%.
Whether they've recovered or not
, I'm not sure
because I haven't been feeling well these past two days.
They should have recovered,
since the lockdown continues.
Theoretically, they should,
but under these circumstances,
the stock market remains strong.
For example, SNP... The global performance of the 500 companies
is said to be very strong
in European, French, and German stocks.
Why are they still strong under these circumstances?
Let me tell
you, it's about mindset
and perspective
. Everyone thinks
the situation is already as bad as it can get.
Do you understand what I mean?
We used to think that if the battlefield was bad,
the stock market would be bad.
That refers to the early stages of a war
. In the early stages,
even the slightest movement
can cause a major shift in the world
because everyone is well-equipped and ready to act.
But if it drags on like this,
everyone
will know that
the US military can't effectively defend
its islands.
If they dare to land on the islands
and launch an amphibious assault
, Iran, with its remaining 1,000 missiles,
is not to be underestimated. They will
fight back, and they will have to conserve their resources.
Is it possible
that on the day China and Japan break out into war,
the Chinese would look at Japanese ships
and think, "Oh, they're
so small,
we can just sink them."
Do you think it's possible to
completely destroy them? No,
it's impossible. Enemies meeting
are bound to be extremely hostile
, right? They'd definitely try to kill you,
right? It 's not like it
's our Taiwanese army,
right? We wouldn't fight Japan anyway, we could
n't win.
So, in this situation,
are you saying that if you go there,
you'll give Iran an opportunity to annihilate you
? You want to maintain a stalemate,
is that possible? Yes,
you can , but the cost is too high.
You'll lose at least several thousand American soldiers
.
The US government cannot accept
such losses
because they won't gain anything from this war.
It's already determined that
the US won't gain anything from this war.
Your biggest achievement is... What?
The biggest achievement for the US
in this war was
the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
, which gave it
a model for regaining global influence
, but it lost its credibility
because others no longer trusted it.
The US wouldn't have won this war in the end.
Even with a fully open Strait of Hormuz,
the US only had empty promises and
might have gained a slight advantage in elections
, but the rest of the world,
especially some NATO countries,
wouldn't trust the US anymore .
And China, needless to say,
wouldn't
trust them. Why
would they protect me
?
It's a helpless situation.
I'm being attacked every day,
what are you doing helping me? Nothing! And you
even want to
charge me money?
Impossible!
Therefore, under these circumstances,
the US couldn't gain any greater profits
from this battlefield .
His worst-case scenario is
Withdrawing
is unsightly, politically, isn't it?
But practically speaking,
as long as he can restore passage
, even if he pays a protection fee—
a barrel of oil
—the dollar
is still within
the acceptable range for global capital.
However, it sets a bad precedent.
's best not to set
one.
If it does, then the Strait of Malacca will also charge you, right?
Then other places like the Hirshhorn
will charge you, and
Russia will charge you for the
Arctic route,
right? That creates controversy. For
example, South Africa charges you for the Cape of Good Hope, right?
This is a bad thing,
a bad precedent. It's best not to set one
because the world isn't like the
Strait of Hormuz or
the Taiwan Strait. Can we charge
fees
? No, we can't.
So, in this situation,
the best-case scenario
is that the Strait of Hormuz is completely open,
with limited protection fees or no protection fees at all.
This is already 100% the best-case scenario.
The US military withdraws, with
minimal losses, and
then goes back, patting its nose,
and we'll
come back to fight again next time.
He's going back to rest for a few years
before fighting again next time.
Because Trump
has his own agenda, can he really fight again?
Although he said he'd go back ...
Do you know why Trump said he wanted to
attack Cuba ? The reason is simple:
because Iran suffered a setback,
I didn't want to quickly shift my focus away from the entire battlefield.
So I said, "If we attack Cuba,
Cuba will say, 'Come on, if you dare,
' right?" Then everyone would start looking
for the next war.
Everyone knows
that attacking Cuba is even more impossible
because
it would trigger more crises
in the region, making geopolitics
extremely dangerous.
Besides, the US doesn't have the capability to attack Cuba right now
. Trump usually doesn't do
what he says he's willing to do
; he usually can't.
He wants peace talks,
but we say peace talks in the morning
and then say we're not talking anymore in the afternoon.
That's how it is.
His words are basically unreliable.
Cuba will definitely react,
but can the US take
over Cuba?
That's impossible.
International law doesn't allow it,
and the US doesn't have the capability to take over Cuba.
They even have problems managing Venezuela,
let alone Cuba.
Both of these places have issues, okay?
Only we Taiwanese people still believe that
Cuba
will
definitely welcome the US military's intervention
because it's a dictatorship.
That's what they say. Ah,
the people's poor living conditions
are one thing
, but whether you can accept other countries' countries
is another matter
entirely.
Take the Vietnam
War, for
example. Would
the Vietnamese government, like
the South Vietnamese government,
welcome an American to be their president?
No,
the US wouldn't have.
Because there were too many places to build,
too much money to spend.
Now, there are no colonial-era countries
, and the colonial laws
create controversy.
Colonial activities
are controversial
. So what's the use of gaining their support
They don't pay taxes, right? It 's
just a matter of declarations. It
means they really want to
extricate themselves from the Iran war as quickly as possible.
They can't stand not being able to extricate themselves.
So everyone needs to see through this fact:
the US won't gain anything.
That's why the US and European economies and
their financial markets are so strong
—because they don't have any worse plans.
The worst that could happen is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Since there's no worse
,
it means all the bad news has been priced in.
So
, can I enter the market
now? So we started to notice that
the US
stock market
, or other markets,
were constantly seeing a collective influx of funds.
This shows a situation
,
the market isn't just about turmoil; it's not that the overall market
ecosystem
will
necessarily improve
just because there's unrest. It's not
that the market's overall environment
won't get worse
, meaning the negative factors
won't necessarily
lead to a positive
outcome. But is that really
the case?
For example, the European economy.
Europe's March median inflation
was
revised upwards to 2.6%,
higher than the February market expectation of 1.9%
. This is
the first time
since the beginning of 2026 that it
has exceeded the ECB's 2% medium-term target.
Previously, the February expectation was 1.9
%, but now it's 2.6%.
Why
?
Because
energy consumption rose
by 4.9% year-on-year
, the first time since February 2025 that
the annual increase has been so high.
So it has completely reversed deflation.
Why did it reverse deflation?
Because when I have to spend money,
for example, there's a pseudo-inflation
that becomes stagnant inflation.
inflation is
a serious problem,
not an insult.
In this situation,
the only thing Europe can do
is
keep interest
rates unchanged.
For example, the European Central Bank has maintained its three
key interest rates:
the deposit rate at 2%,
the main financing rate at 2.15%, and
the marginal lending rate at 2.4%
. Why?
Because they can't afford not to.
If they raise interest rates
to curb inflation,
then the borrowing costs for businesses and
mortgage costs for ordinary people
will be locked in,
because that's how it is in their country.
This increases the financing costs for businesses
and ordinary people. Add to that
the debt problems of the so-called three European countries
their various regions, and the interest rates on the
government bonds you borrow
and issue
also need to be raised.
Given that
the economic environment is already bad
, raising interest rates
and increasing spending on government bonds will lead to
default risks for smaller countries
that can't pay their government bond interest.
So, the best-case scenario is maintaining interest rates
, and the worst-case scenario is
that
I can't raise them
.
If I do
,
the entire European economy
will face even greater damage
because the European economy,
unlike the US, doesn't have a more robust system
. This is because Europe itself
isn't part of the industrial revolution system;
it can only maintain the remnants of the past.
Therefore, its industrial output capacity... While the US may
lack the resources
, it still possesses AI
capabilities and
other crucial technologies, such as agricultural machinery and
products.
Therefore
, the core economic system of the US
is inherently stronger than Europe's
, and its ability to
withstand risks is
higher . Europe's interest
rate hikes have led to
phenomena like the iPhone crash,
and its excessively
high welfare
policies are
even more outrageous than the US's.
We've discussed
high welfare policies
before; they exist because of existing benefits, a situation where the
government
is simply using existing resources
to maintain its power.
However,
they lack a sense of preparedness for
unforeseen circumstances. They should have this mindset
: "Since we're so rich,
we should share with everyone."
It's as if they think, "Hey,
we're all..." In a country where mutual benefit and
win-win cooperation are impossible,
you know that in the long run,
you must be prepared for
unforeseen circumstances and have resources ready for any
eventuality. This is essential,
right?
But why haven't they done it?
Their culture, like China's, has been steeped
in political philosophy for thousands of years.
Don't they know this?
Knowing is useless.
The government changes every four or five years,
and even then, it can't be in two consecutive terms.
Why should I be thinking about the future?
If I'm not doing well now
, I'll implement these welfare policies
to improve the situation
, and then my party can win the election,
right? Like Macron, that fool
, why does he still try to do good for France?
What's the point
? People don't support him, so
he just keeps throwing out welfare, even if
it worsens the finances.
One day he can just shrug it off
, because he created the welfare system,
right? He's just a fool like Macron,
wholeheartedly wanting to do good for the country,
but even with that intention, he can't achieve it. What's the reason
for this
?
The Eight Banners system
is riddled with problems;
you're already seriously ill,
and some reforms
simply can't solve it.
We'll tell many stories about this later,
like the story of Emperor Chongzhen
, and the story of Emperor Wanli—
Wanli's story is truly fascinating, the story
of the 30th year of
Wanli's reign, and the story of Chongzhen—
their stories are very interesting
. So,
while European and
American stock markets are constantly rising,
there will still be downward pressure.
It's not as
ideal as it seems.
So, given the situation in Europe
, what about
Asia?
Asia is certainly worse .
For example,
the International Monetary Fund
predicts that
the Asian economy—which includes China, Hong Kong, Japan, Macau, and Taiwan—
will decline
from
% in 2025. The growth rate of the Asian economy is expected to slow to 4.4% by 2026.
Note that the teacher is referring to the entire Asian economy
, not just China.
China's claim of maintaining 5
% growth is one thing,
but looking at the overall Asian economy,
the growth rate is expected to slow to 4.4%
or even 4.2% by 2027.
However, if the Middle East conflict continues,
this growth could continue by another 1 to 2 percentage points.
This is because Asia lacks
sufficient energy resources
and must rely on petrochemical industries
to maintain its energy supply.
Therefore, under the current circumstances,
Europe is constantly
pursuing energy reforms,
aggressively building nuclear,
solar, and
wind power plants.
However,
the majority of the benefits still go to China
because of its significant
role in importing
these products. Even after importing
these products, the solar panels
and wind turbines
produced in China
are still cheaper than those from Europe.
Furthermore , the entire industrial chain,
including batteries
and transformers
, is also made in China.
So, you see
, no matter how much you turn a blind eye
to importing
these products, Europe still has to buy solar and wind power equipment
from China .
You might say, "Isn't the teacher right?
Europe, for example, France,
has its own wind power equipment
" Without transformers, it's useless, right?
Transformers are
useless
too. So
, sorry
, under these circumstances,
China has become
somewhat of a core issue.
And now, for China,
this is a turning point.
Why?
Because a few years ago, our
teacher told you that
China would definitely develop nuclear power rapidly.
It's said that China currently has the world's largest
installed capacity of nuclear power.
Why? Because nuclear power is clearly
a clean energy source
. Right, I'm not saying this, but
where to put nuclear waste
is a fake issue.
You still believe it?
Right? Don't believe that fake issue, okay?
People who believe that stuff
are idiots.
They're fucking idiots,
you know? Even
a silly deer is a little smarter than you.
So nuclear energy is a clean energy source.
That's why
China has been continuously building nuclear power plants,
and Europe also wants to restart nuclear energy.
Everyone wants to do it,
but China started two or three years earlier.
So, the nuclear power plants they are building now,
plus small nuclear power plants
, and nuclear fusion technology is waiting in the future.
Most importantly,
Xinjiang
and some of their coastal areas
have hydropower
, ocean current power generation
, dam power generation
, and even photovoltaic
power. Some of Xinjiang's
photovoltaic power generation can power a
neighboring
province, right?
This proves that they have their own equipment.
So, before China suffered personnel losses, they
had already made personnel arrangements
several years earlier,
at least five years earlier.
Taiwan actually had the earliest opportunity
because it started earlier than China. For
example, around 17
or 18 years ago,
Taiwan's photovoltaic technology was the best,
but now China is the best.
You might not know this history.
17 or 18 years ago,
Taiwan's photovoltaic panels
were of the highest quality and
efficiency;
we just couldn't overcome the cost.
After China learned from them,
they did even better, right?
Because it's not some profound technology.
Honestly, with
so many university graduates in China,
their R&D speed is much faster than ours
, so their conversion rate is higher.
Plus, they have a more systematic approach, right
? They also have solar panels
and so on,
so their overall approach is faster.
Therefore, in this situation,
Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan
are in a very bad state.
And with the Asian economy in such a bad state,
the US still wants to continue to resist
China.
For example, some Chinese researchers sent
there were directly deported by the US
.
Plus, now, for example, the US's AI
cloud
is targeting Chinese people,
even if they use Pro... Plus
is like using a springboard;
if you go to this proxy to use cloud,
they'll definitely know.
Honestly, many people say,
how can they know
you're using Plus?
Well, silly child,
it
's not just your IP
that can know where you are
, okay?
Many things can know where you are
, okay? I won't go into details, but
when people go to do some strange experiments,
they can know where you are,
and they'll ask you to do things like
upload your ID card, etc., for verification.
But the problem is, what's the point of verification?
They won't agree
. So
they hope to block China in AI,
and in the entire scientific field
, they hope China can stop them
from becoming stronger.
But the question is, can this be achieved?
This year, in
2025-2026
,
China still has an absolute advantage in the number of papers published.
China's research
continues to lead the world every year.
So how long can you
block them ? Not long.
Some people say, "No,
teacher, for example, the US's May Jerry,
the US's Open AI,
the US's cloud, Germany's... they're all stronger than China
. " No,
you have to look at what things are stronger than China.
For
example, Tencent is doing something
called Coding.
They have a coding plan
, and Douban also has a coding plan
specifically for you to write code.
Do you know how much it costs per month?
Unlimited use for
only 200 RMB
per month!
200 RMB gives you unlimited
coding access.
They 'll
even let you manually write code—
anything
you can remember.
The accuracy is quite
high, isn't it?
Well, the accuracy is relatively low.
They've done experiments, and
public institutions and
single notary units have conducted experiments showing
an accuracy of 76%. Partial
cloud accuracy is probably 82%.
The difference between
Part 70 and
Part 80 is significant
, but it's so cheap now
that when you use it,
you'll gain experience
and quickly
create an AI that can potentially
compete with Professor Chen's
coding.
Many people say that
design is declining,
but that's not
true.
Design's code
itself is
only 4
percentage points
behind the so-called cloud and GBT .
This is a fair evaluation.
So overall,
it's not possible to
say that Chinese science will be blocked for a long time
because China has energy
, enough energy,
no problem with its own people's livelihood, no problem
with research and development.
They have nuclear power,
people, and
natural gas.
Most importantly, they also have
coal mines
and coal mine owners
China has discovered many new coal resources.
Under these circumstances,
China's food supply is better than...
If the US continues to deplete its resources, what will happen? As one
side gains while the other loses,
the shift in global power
and economic transfer
will become more pronounced.
We must understand that
fortunes change every thirty years,
whether in feng shui or
destiny.
The world situation is within this framework.
There will inevitably be generational changes,
and once a change occurs,
wealth rarely lasts beyond three generations.
This is something we can be certain of.
Look at the US since the 1950s;
it has experienced numerous cycles,
facing economic crises
almost every 20-25 years.
Has the US always had smooth sailing,
never lacking food and clothing for over 200 years?
No,
you haven't really studied American history.
You think they've always had everything?
They've experienced so many financial crises,
we just haven't specifically brought them up.
Okay,
and um, we've gone over time,
sorry
teacher, we got too excited.
Okay, we went too far.
Oh, no problem, that
's all for the comments.
The stock market is lively
, but
be careful
because there are some sideways markets now.
Sideways markets are where you
try to participate
in the up, down, and down swings, and sometimes things go wrong
. Generally, retail investors,
you shouldn't get involved in these things.
I really don't recommend you just buy gold.
Gold has already gone up by 10% this time,
right? Just buy gold.
Save money
and eliminate debt;
that's the best thing for you.
Okay,
thank you everyone for watching today.
Thank you teacher , thank
you everyone.
Today,
I coughed so many times,
thank you for your understanding
and tolerance
. Next week
, we will continue to update our short videos.
I also recorded some short videos today
for our future main force
because I found that no one watches long videos
, you know?
I will try my best to update short videos.
Those
who are destined to see them,
please follow me
like and share.
Hey, Teacher Yue's past programs
have been blacklisted.
I need people's support now.
Follow, share, and like.
Please like this post!
Sorry, the teacher has been coughing.
Just a reminder about
the infertility ceremonies we
were holding on May 20th.
Registration for the Spring Infertility Ceremony is now open.
If you didn't attend before—
if you participated through the Qingming Festival app
— please re-register
in our new system .
This is for everyone's information security. For any questions
about the online class,
please contact the teacher directly.
Thank you for watching.
I'm Teacher Shen.
Wishing you all good health
and peace to your families.
See you next week!
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