The discussion predicts a volatile 2026 dominated by a high-stakes US-China geopolitical and economic confrontation, driven by US attempts to maintain dollar hegemony and China's pursuit of greater financial sovereignty, with potential for global instability and conflict.
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Welcome back. We are joined today by
Professor Jang to discuss uh 2026 uh
what to expect. So, thank you very much
for coming back on.
>> Thanks, Karen.
>> So, uh you're renowned for using
historical patterns and game theory to
predict the direction of geopolitics and
uh from the direct from the election of
Trump to the invasion of Iran, you've
been pretty much spot on. So, uh, I
thought who better to ask about what to
predict, uh, for this year 2026. And,
um, yeah, we certainly gone off to a
very rough start. Uh, but, uh, well,
before we look into 2026, can I ask you,
well, what is it that make your
geopolitical predictions uh, more
accurate? Is it do you rely on the
economic structure then, the elite
politics, ideology, or military balance?
if you would assess 2026.
>> Yeah. So, I use game theory and I
basically see geopolitics as um a game
played by different uh players who are
trying to maximize their own
self-interest. Um so, I don't really
look at ideology. I don't really look at
um I I I I basically focus on self-interest.
self-interest.
So um the 2026 then what are I guess the
main things you are looking at
right? So for me, I think the big event
of 2026 will be uh this April when Trump
visits China um on a state visit, his
first and his second term. And um the US
China relationship will uh be be the big
question for 2026.
Russia, the war in Ukraine um it's
basically pretty settled. It's it's
stabilized. Um what will happen between
Europe, NATO, Russia? we can we can
basically forecast easily. But what's
really up in the air is the US China
relationship. So what Trump wants to do
is go to China and negotiate a grand
bargain between China and United States.
Remember that um in 1971 uh Nixon
removed the US dollar from the gold
standard and so the dollar was now free
floating. So to stabilize the US dollar
to give it value he did two things. The
first is he established a petro dollar,
meaning that Saudi Arabia would only
allow for its oil to be purchased by US
dollars. And the second thing that he
did was he visited China to open up
China. And so what America did in the
1980s was transfer technology um and um
expertise to China, open its market so
that China would become addicted to the
US dollar. And for you know a few
decades this relationship worked really
well. But then the United States started
to abuse its exorbitant privilege. It
started to print too much US dollars. It
started to engage in these wars in the
Middle East that were causing the um
debt to balloon. Then you have the 2008
2009 uh great financial crisis. So China
became much more worried about the value
the stability of the US dollar. So now
so then it began began to uh try to
internationalize the UN. Uh it created
something called the gold corridor the
Shanghai gold exchange. So it's trying
to uh recalibrate the financial market.
So it become much more stable and China
would have much more sovereignty um in
the global trade system and this is now
destabilizing the US dollar. So what
Trump wants to do is to um force China
to continue to buy US dollars because
remember if China were were to dump all
all of its US treasuries then there
would be a sovereign debt crisis in
United States. So um Trump needs to
figure out how to liberalize the Chinese
financial markets and to get get Chinese
to continue to buy uh more US dollars.
And that's why we're seeing what we're
seeing right now. Right. So uh by
invading Venezuela
um what Trump hopes to do is force China
to uh buy oil you using US dollars. So
where where does China get most of its
oil? It gets most of it oil from the
Middle East. So if it were if Trump were
to attack Iran and destabilize the
Middle East, then China would be forced
to rely more on the Western Hemisphere
for its oil supply. But not just the oil
supply, but also for silver, for gold,
for lithium, for copper. basically all
the um minerals that that China needs to
power its EV industry, its AI industry.
So this is the grand strategy that's
being played out where Trump is
conducting conducting all these wars
around the world in order to strangle
the Chinese economy so that they so so
that China becomes reliant on the
western he has fair for supply and then
and then China would be forced to uh buy
more US dollars and uh that's the great
game that we're being play that we are
witnessing right now in 2026
>> but it looks like this can go both ways
because if the United States really
wanted for China to use the US dollar
and again there's a lot of benefits for
China to use the US dollar then they
would want to do uh I guess to some
extent exact opposite that is to create
trust and an open per predictable uh
international economic system in which
the rule of law would come first uh the
problem of forcing
will suggest that all rules were cast
aside if you look at the efforts to cut
off China from uh from uh the
semiconductors to well crush its tech
industry. All of these things it it
would have the opposite effect. It would
convince the Chinese to go a different
direction because if they now bow to the
pressure of the United States, they
would essentially be owned by the United
States and I guess well if you took the
Venezuelan case instead of being forced
to buy US dollar uh buy gold sorry buy
oil in US dollars they could go the
other way. they can make themselves more
dependent on Russian energy given that
they have a common border and put these
two great powers even closer. So it how
do you assess what direction the US goes
because at the moment it seems to be a
bit of a strategic vacuum. They want to
build trust but at the same time they
want to force China and coers it to do
exactly what it wants. You can't have it
both ways. You have to pick one path and
stick with it otherwise everything falls apart.
apart.
>> You're absolutely right. I completely
agree. Um the United States if it were
to perceive China as a peer uh and were
to treat China with respect to see China
as a sovereign nation that is worthy of
respect then we would have no issues.
China would be perfectly happy to trade
uh as equals with the United States. The
problem is that the United States is the
global hegeimon and it insists on
maintaining its global hijgemony. So,
China must be a subordinate to the
American Empire and China refuses to do
that. China is a sovereign nation and it
wants to be respected on the world
stage. But as you point out, these two
nations are codependent on each other.
Um, if China were to lose access to oil
in the Middle East and in the Western
Hemisphere, it could depend on Russian
oil, but it Russia could not meet
China's uh energy needs. China imports
3/4 of all its oils from overseas. 50%
of of its oil comes uh from sorry uh
China imports 3/4 of all its oil needs.
Half of those come from the Middle East.
20% come from Russia. If China tomorrow
could import all its oil from Russia, it
would do so. But it Russia does not have
the capacity to do that. you still have
to build those cut pipelines which will
take years and years and cost tens of
billions of dollars and so China is sort
of stuck right now but as you point out
um China does have a lot of tools um it
does have a lot of weapons for example
it can continue to destabilize the US
dollar and we saw that with the um
silver markets right so what China did
at the start of this year was announce
that it would restrict exports of its
silver and China dominates the silver
market and this caused the price of
silver to skyrocket
um in um coax the um they the com
commodities exchange in the United
States and this destabilized the US
financial markets. So what we're seeing
is almost mutually assured destruction,
right? So if the United States were to
cut off China's um oil, if if the United
States were to embargo uh China, China
could just dump all its US treasuries,
could just cause financial havoc and
both nations would be destroyed. So what
we're seeing and and and and here's a
metaphor. Okay, imagine a ladder over an
abyss and um both China and United
States are trying to climb this ladder
and it would be their best interest to
climb it together at the same time. The
United States for whatever reason
insists on being higher than China. Now,
if ch if um United States goes too far
and leaves China far behind, the ladder
destabilizes and they both fall into the
abyss. If China overtakes United States
and climbs too far, they also both fall
into the abyss. So, this is a really
dangerous uh and really stupid game
they're both playing. Um, and again, we
would not be in a situation if the
United States showed some humility um
and start to treat China as an equal.
But unfortunately, we are in the situation.
situation.
Yeah, that's why I initially asked about
ideology because uh often in um at least
for political realist the assumption is
that states are rational but uh we see
with ideology over the past 30 years a
whole political class being raised on
the notion that uh peace in the world
needs well requires the hedgemony of the
west because then will elevate this
liberal democratic value.
It's the idea that they can't imagine a
world in which they do it's not based on
dominance. And I think this is fueling a
lot of irrational behavior. I mean, if
it's a problem in the US is definitely a
problem in in Europe. Uh I I like though
that you that you pulled the China into
the Venezuelan issue because many people
miss that Venezuela they did offer to
accommodate all these American energy
companies though. But it's not about
only the US getting access. is also
denying or conditioning the access of uh
rival great powers. So I think uh yeah
that's an important aspect. Um but also
yeah in terms of uh accommodating China
though Kissinger made a similar comment
back in 2014 in regard to Russia. He
said if they are a great power and we
should then we should treat it as such
accommodate their interests so they can
be accommodated into the USled order. If
not, we're going to end up with stupid
policy such as trying to defeat or
destroy them, and that's what he warned
against. And I I fear that's the
direction they're going with China as
well. Um, how do you see though with
>> Sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry. Um, you
know, I I love what you said. So, let me
make two points to reinforce what you
said. First of all, I don't think it's
ideology. I think it's hubris and
racism. Okay. I think that Americans
think that they are the best and they
hate it hate the fact that China is
catching up to America. Okay. So it's
actually it's hubris and you can also
say it's racism right now what's
happening in this geopolitical order.
That's number one. Number two is that
you know we saw what happened in
Venezuela. You know Mandor being
kidnapped and a lot say are saying that
America did this to capture Venezuela
oil resources. That's not true. What
America did was to spite China because
America's not going to go in and build
up Venezuela's oil infrastructure.
That'll cost you know tens of billions
of dollars. it will take many many years
before America can can um really bring
the Venezuela oil industry up to modern
standards. What it's what it's doing is
cutting off access to China. That's that
that's entire goal, right? So um it's
not to claim the oil and it's not to um
benefit US oil companies. It's just to
spite China. That's all it is.
>> Well, no, I I I agree. I think uh well
this is the main issue of well this is
why they keep referring to the Monroe
doctrine and obviously China is the main
concern there because if you want to
control your own hemisphere seeing China
as being the main trade partner to well
all of Latin America is
yeah something that has to be reversed.
uh but how do you factor in though the
unknown variables? For example, if I
would predict one thing for 2026, it
will be an economic crisis that is uh uh
for for for the United States. And
again, once economic crisis kicks in, uh
you have it it manifests itself in
political, social instability.
uh the rationality of states uh tend to
well wither away when uh when things at
home uh go poorly and they will seek
quick fixes and easy solutions and um
yeah like this tariff policies or allow
economic conflicts to elevate into war.
So how do you see economic crisis uh
playing into 2026 especially the USChina rivalry?
rivalry?
>> Right. So America, the American economy
has some major weaknesses and you're
right that um it's possible that America
faces a great financial crisis uh this
year. So let's go over some of the major
uh problem areas of the American
economy. The first is artificial
intelligence where right now most
American GDP is driven by investment in
AI. So just building data centers which
consume a lot of water and electricity
uh in local communities. And what's a
problem is that these data centers cost
tens of billions of dollars. And it's
really unclear how these data centers
will make money because right now uh how
how most people make uh how most how
most people use AI is to generate videos
and to like cheat in school, right? To
get attached to write their essays. It's
unclear how this will be beneficial to
the economy. And if it's possible for AI
to be profitable, this will cause
millions of dollar millions of jobs to
be lost. So it seems as though the AI
bubble is about to be to burst. The
problem though is that right now the US
economy doesn't make any sense. Right?
So there's Michael Barry who is very
famous for uh famously predicting that
in 2008 the uh supply market the CDO
market would collapse and he took out
billions of dollars in uh in uh bets
against uh this market and he made a lot
of money and then he uh made a bet
against AI because he was certain that
none of fundamentals made any sense in
the AI industry and then he suddenly
announced that he was actually leaving
the industry and the reason why is okay.
The a the AI industry doesn't make any
sense. But guess what? The American the
entire American financial industry
doesn't make any more sense anymore.
Meaning that right now the American uh
financial industry, it's controlled by a
few oligarchs. Uh it's it's controlled
by a minority of people who can dictate
the market to their will. And so the
average consu the average investor um
market fundamentals no longer apply to
what's happening. So yes, in theory, uh
the AR market should could could
collapse, but because um there's so few
players within the AI market, it's
controlled by, you know, seven
companies, they can do whatever they
want. And um the American government has
something called operation Stargate, uh
Project Stargate. And so they're so
Trump has promised hundreds of billion
dollars to invest in the AI
infrastructure. So it's possible that
this bubble keeps on going on and on.
Okay. So, um, this this this means that
right now the American financial
industry lacks the capacity to
self-correct. Um, and so if the market
collapses, it's going to it's probably
going to take the entire economy with
it. And so that's a great problem facing
the US financial industry. That's
problem number one. Problem number two
is over financialization. And this goes
back to the silver example where when
China announced that it was going to ex
limit its exports of silver and China
controls about 60% of the silver market
in the world the um price of silver went
crazy and the reason why is that um in
China silver is used for manufacturing
needs. So silver goes into uh AI, EV, uh
batteries all that. So China really
needs silver. But in United States,
silver is used for speculation. So
silver is really a uh it's only paper
silver. And a lot of these um companies
like JP Morgan, they're leverage
overleveraged 300 to one. So every one
ounce of silver that they have, they
promised 300 on paper. And so um and and
so it's a great bubble that's going to
that's going to burst. You know, it like
what we saw in silver was almost like a
small bank run, but it's not just
silver. It's almost all these
commodities where uh these commodities
aren't used for manufacturing needs.
They're used for speculation. And so um
the American financial industry is one
this great Ponzi scheme that's about to
explode at any point. Um and the third
great uh weakness of the US economy of
course is cryptocurrency. Um where you
know big horn it's all a speculation. It
brings actually no benefit to society.
So you have all these major weaknesses
in uh the American economy. But because
first of all um you have a few igarchs
who control the resources. Second of all
the American government can print as
much money as it wants. There's
something called quantitative easing. Um
and third of all there's really no
challenger to the US dollar. Um this
bubble can sustain itself past 2026. But
when it collapses the entire society
collapses. So you're basically looking
at civil war.
>> So civil war in America. >> Yes.
>> Yes.
Well, uh so in terms of gold and silver,
you you would assume that this rally
will continue then given that it's uh
the paper gold and paper silver has been
inflated so far beyond what actually
exists in terms of the hard assets.
>> Look, the reality is that um demand
exceeds supply, right? So silver goes
into AI, it goes into EVs, batteries
because silver is the best metal
conductor in the world and there's no
second copper is is um second but it's
far behind silver. So you need silver
and the world cannot produce produce
enough silver and this has been true for
the past 5 years and China and United
States they're having in investing
heavily into AI. So right now there's a
major uh fight for for access to silver.
And this goes back again to Venezuela
where Latin America and South America
actually are the world's greatest
producers of silver. Whoever controls
Latin America and South America
basically has uh control over the AI
future. [snorts]
>> Well, so things look a bit grim for the
United States and you have all these
bubbles you refer to. Once this begins
to fall apart, civil war becomes a real
possibility. Um, but how do you see this
obviously affects the rivalry they have
now with China, but what do you see on
the Chinese side? Because what what are
the strategic priorities and how do you
see them pursuing them? because uh one
would assume that the China would also
become a bit more assertive as it
becomes more confident but also as the
pressure is building on the United
States to to essentially break China and
uh will restore the 90s if you will.
>> Yeah. So um you know the greatest
strength and the greatest vulnerability
of the United States is um the US dollar
right but the greatest strength and the
greatest weakness of China is its
reliance on exports. Um, China is an is
an exportoriented economy and in order
to uh feed its economy it focuses on
exports and sometimes its export
strategies are counterproductive and
self-defeating. So for example it dumps
um commodities onto the world market
which hurts uh the trade system. Okay.
So China has also a lot of fundamental
issues right now. The problem is that
the United States is threatening to
strangle, embargo, blockade China,
right? So, um, one thing that will flare
up in 2026, it's already flaring up
right now, is a rivalry between China
and United and Japan, right? So, Prime
Minister Takichi has said that, uh, she
believes that Taiwan is part of Japan's
strategic interest. And what does she
mean by that? What she means by that is
that if China were to get hold of
Taiwan, Taiwan could blockade Japan from
access to the state of Malaca and
therefore um oil from the Middle East
which Japan is dependent on. And so um
Japan believes that if China were to
invade Taiwan then Japan would have to
step in. Okay. So Taiwan is key. But you
know the opposite is true where if
Taiwan were to side with Japan then the
first island chain could could embargo
China can block China from trade. So I
think 2026 you'll see a lot more heated
rhetoric between uh China and Japan. The
reason why is both economies are
dependent on Middle East oil and whoever
can control the sh of Malaca can
basically strangle each other's economy.
>> Yeah. Well, this is the classical
problem. I mean, again, I think we
talked before about how it looks a bit
like preWorld War I that is that China
has kind of outgrown this uh uh security
architecture or economic architecture as
well, which is uh well more or less
designed to contain China. So, it's if
there's not a diplomatic path to this,
it does look like conflict becomes uh
unavoidable. Um but if if we shift a bit
towards uh Europe and uh well which
includes then Russia uh you said that
the Ukraine war has been more or less
settled uh stabilized. Uh I assume
you're not referring to stable front
lines. I'm assuming that the the the
future of the conflict has been I mean
the determined now which seems correct
but on the other side uh the reason I
focus on the rationality of states is
because you see from the Europeans now
increasing rhetoric that well we can't
afford a peace uh if uh if if if the war
ends then uh Russia would focus its
resources on us and so uh one after
another you see this different European
leaders and media outlets saying, "Well,
it's it's war may be better than peace
now." So, are we prepared to end this
war or how do you see this playing out now?
now?
>> Yeah. So, I think I I think like the
future is obvious. Uh Europe is going to
militarize against Russia even though it
is against the best interests of its
people. Its people will be very upset
with remilitarization. You you're
already seeing massive protests in
Germany. A lot of this will be
irrational, meaning like Europe has
absolutely no path to victory in
Ukraine, but um Europe's going to send
uh men to their deaths in Ukraine anyway
because Europe doesn't know what else to
do, right? So, so what Europe is really
saying is that we we banked on uh Russia
losing this war and then we could impose
an indemnity on Russia and that would
solve all our fiscal problems. Now that
Russia is is winning the war, we are
facing um economic collapse at home and
we don't really want to face that. So,
we're going to continue the war and hope
for the best. So, there's no strategy
here. It's um suicidal. It's irrational.
But Europe is stuck where it is. Well,
whenever I ask different experts what
they see the likelihood of a direct war
between the Russia and the Europeans,
they they usually say, "Ah, very little
because the Europeans don't have the
troops. It would be suicidal." But this
assumes that all wars are calculated and
deliberate because if I think a war
an accidental war war by miscalculation
would be rooted in this assumption of
escalation control that is you know the
Europeans can't afford to see Russia
lose now win. So we'll we'll send a
little bit more extra long range
missiles. We try to target the political
leadership. Let's blow up some Russian
tankers. So we escalate at the same time
as pressure is mounting on Moscow to to
stop allowing the Europeans to step over
all red lines. So why should the
Russians accept the Europeans engaging
in direct attacks killing Russians? So
they will then retaliate and I don't
think the Europeans want this but want a
direct war. They would just like to kill
Russians through Ukraine and then you
know claim that their hands are clean.
But I don't think this this is coming to
an end. I think from what I hear coming
out of Moscow, this is uh we're reaching
the end of the line and especially the
Germans should be hit hard if they
continue along this path. But if you
open any Norwe sorry European or German
newspaper, they don't seem to realize
this at all. If they recognize
possibility of war, it's because Russia
will want to restore the Soviet Union or
you know something March on Paris,
something along those lines. Do you
think though that this is a real prospect?
prospect?
>> Look, I think that the leadership of
Europe, the European elite, they live in
their own reality. Um so you know like
YouTube and social media there are
different bubbles and I think like the
uh European elite they literally believe
that Russia will collapse tomorrow and
we just wait another day then uh the
Russian economy will collapse the people
of Russia will will revolt and Putin
will be overthrown and then Russia will
sue for for for peace. If you just like
watch their media, they repeat this over
and over and it becomes a selfin
self-reinforcing bubble. The EU is just
is this brawling
um um self-reinforcing
bureaucracy and they're not capable
capable of imagining defeat. They're not
capable of imagining um different
possibilities. They're they're certain
they're absolutely certain that um if
they just wait out one more day then the
war will be over and they would have
won. And you know, if you talk about
irrationality, go back to World War I
and like for those four or five years
where these millions of people were
dying for for no reason. And the reason
why was these leaders just could not
accept the possibility that they had
made a mistake. Okay? I mean, it's it's
I I understand this is all silly like
why would you sacrifice men of men
because you can't afford to make a
mistake. They can't afford to admit that
hey, maybe sending Boris Johnson to
sabotage peace talks between KF and
Moscow was wrong. Maybe blowing that
North Nordstream pipeline was wrong.
Maybe antagonizing Russia these 20 years
by expanding NATO to its borders was
wrong. It's these people absolutely
refuse to admit they're wrong and
they're willing to sacrifice their own
nations uh to avoid admitting, you know,
being being wrong.
>> Yeah. Even now that the loss NATO losing
Ukraine is starting to become obvious,
the the new goal appears to be well,
let's lose slower. Let's keep the
Ukrainians a little bit longer in the
fight. even though it will be a
humanitarian disaster for Ukraine and
also a strategic disaster for Europe
because this is not good for them. Uh
but how how do you see this playing out
in the European security architecture
because again um the EU and NATO are the
two main pillars of how Europe has been
structured in the postcold war era. They
were supposed to, you know, be the
hedgemonic or order of Europe. Also,
what what US unipolarity was supposed to
rest on, uh, especially NATO. Did you
see them being able to survive? Well,
2026 might hold on, but how how do you
see this uh well, what would you expect
from 2026? Uh, complete collapse isn't
necessarily in the cards, but uh it it
it seems to be deteriorating fast. I
mean, as we speak, Trump is laying claim
to Greenland. So, and the Danish prime
minister trying to refer to article 5,
but I'm not sure if America would come
to the defense of Greenland if America
goes after Greenland. I mean, this is
kind of absurd stuff.
>> Um, look, the reality is that Trump
hates Europe. He's hated Europe ever
since 2016 when Europe was um um um when
Europe basically insulted him during his
first presidency. Um Europe thought he
was a joke. He was a charlatan and
Europe inspired Obama to refer him in
2020. So um Trump hates Europe and you
can and you can tell because um you know
what was the first thing that happened
after Trump um won election? He sent JD
Vans to Europe to scold Europe for
failing Western civilization, right? For
letting in too many, uh, for letting in
too many immigrants, for embracing woke
ideology, for betraying Christian
values. And so, um, your Trump would be
more than happy to see the entire NATO
system collapse. And you could argue
that like like, you know, Trump is
forcing NATO to collapse because Trump
is forcing NATO to fight a war. it could
possibly not win against Russia. So I
think what's going to happen is that uh
NATO will sleepwalk into disaster into
Ukraine. And the reason why is that it's
just this lumbering bureaucracy that can
that cannot possibly imagine its own
demise. And these are just bureaucrats
who just want to collect their own
paycheck and who are looking for their
own pension. So they don't really care
what happens. Uh they'll just do what
they're told and um this war will be
settled in Odessa. I think that NATO
will collapse in Odessa because NATO
will commit to defending Odessa. Russia
will encircle it blockadeed and um NATO
will not be able to hold on. NATO will
force uh Europeans to be conscripted
into the army to die in Odessa. They
will refuse and you will have civil war
throughout Europe. But this is this is
like a 5 to 10 year time frame. It's
going to happen this year. It it'll be
it's going to be another 5 to 10 years,
but it's a slow death for Europe.
So Odessa would be the end of the
Ukraine war then. >> Yes.
>> Yes.
>> Yeah. No. Well, that makes sense. Uh the
Russians have set their eyes on Odessa
as the as this is to a large extent
about the Black Sea and of course this
is where NATO attacks Russia from
primarily from Odessa. And uh I think
the British and French would never
accept giving up Odessa. This is I think
the key prize in in this war. So yeah,
you're probably spot on there. Um, how
about the Europe's goal of strategic
autonomy? This was we heard for many
years uh strategic autonomy, European
sovereignty. These were the slogans of
the EU. It's in very stark contrast to
the subservience to a US which hates
Europe. Uh but uh how do you see the
internal cohesion holding in in place?
Because I think Europe, you know, it
succeeded when it was able to live
deliver economic benefits to its member
state as a collective bargaining power.
I don't see that anymore.
>> Yeah. So after 1945, Europe was forced
to adopt the ideas of the open society.
Right. This is Carl Harper who argued
that World War II was caused by fascism,
by this excessive embrace of
nationalism. So to prevent another great
war, we uh societies have become much
more open, multicultural, tolerant and
that was a strategy for the EU
bureaucracy for the past few decades.
That's why uh they've let in so many of
the immigrants. That's why they that's
why they've embraced woke ideology and
it's basically made the Sides um you
know uh much more uh polarized. So you
have the real possible civil war in
Britain, in France because they let in
all these immigrants and uh the natives
see these immigrants as a threat to
their cultural identity. Um and so you
know wars are fought because people want
to fight them to protect the ones they
love and they they they fight them for
their homeland. But right now if you go
to Britain and you ask them like what
does Britain mean to you? I think
British people would be hard to answer
you if you you know um these immigrants
in Britain if you interview them and you
say hey are you willing to go fight a
war in Ukraine to defend Britain and
they'll say hell hell no. Um and natives
are like why would I uh leave this land
to go die in Ukraine so that these
immigrants can take it over after I'm
dead. So the idea of you know getting
these Europeans go fight anywhere is
just ridiculous now and yeah I mean you
will conscript quite a few because um
these European nations have become authoritarian
authoritarian
um but it's going to destroy the
societies. So Europe is no longer
capable of fighting a fullscale conflict
with Russia.
Sometimes I get um a feeling of some
similarities with uh with the Soviets
after the Bolevik revolution when they
when they were fighting because uh the
Russians were deeply religious. So when
you when they were essentially yeah
going to fight under a Bolevik or a
Soviet flag the the the problem then was
uh what exactly are they fighting for?
Uh so they kind of had to allow the the
church to come to come back in because
this is why what what people fought for.
And I get the same impression now that
the Europeans are being told that we
have to go and you know die for them to
fight Russia. And if you ask why they
will refer to you know the nation and
you know the typical things people would
die for. But uh but they spent the past
uh years if not decades to express their
you know contempt for our faith, our
traditions, our culture. And now we're
supposed to die for it. I mean it's
>> what what are we dying for? It doesn't
really make any sense. I mean this is
what people nationalism is. Yeah. People
kill for it but they're also willing to
die for it. I think I think the smearing
of nationalism even though it was
introduced in the French Revolution with
democratization I think it's been
another flaw. But um yeah uh so um
uh how how does this uh uh play into the
to the United States because the
Europeans were a key partner of the US
in the past in order to well world and
during cold war and the hegemonic era.
But uh what do you see the Americans
doing now if they drifting further away
from the Europeans? Uh will they abandon
block politics or will they simply
demand subservience? How how is the how
will the US build this power moving
forward? Because this is what perplexes
many European politicians every time
America slams them or threatens to take
Greenland. They they all go on Twitter
going, "Well, you know, we we're good
allies. You need us to be great, but uh
but uh it doesn't appear that this
sentiment is shared by Washington. So,
how how what what will the US build its
power on?"
>> Look, the United States is now
transactional. It's an empire and it's
going to exploit its vassels. And if it
cannot exploit its vassels, it will just
abandon them. So the United States right
now, it's uncertain what it can derive
from Europe, right? Europe is has an
agent population. Um, it is not willing
to fight wars. It does not have that
many able-bodied men. It has very few
resources. So the United States doesn't
really know what it can do with Europe.
And in fact, United States believed that
Europe has been um stealing and
exploiting the United States for the
past few decades. It's the uh American
security infrastructure that has
protected Europe, that has allowed
Europe to create its welfare state, that
has allowed uh Europe to um basically um
the Americans think that the Europeans
are just lazy
um and decadent and corrupt. And so the
United States is preparing to throw
Europe like overboard, right? they just
abandon Europe to Russia and forget
about it. And so uh Europe uh so United
States national security strategy it's
very clear it's going to use the western
hemisphere to project its power
overseas. So the example goes out to
China where listen in the future China
if you want resources don't think about
the Middle East because it's on fire
right uh the entire place is at war.
Don't think about Europe because Europe
is dead. Um don't think about Africa
because we're going to challenge you
there as well. you're going to have to
come and buy resources from from the
western hemisphere and therefore you're
you're going to have have to buy from
us. Um so I think that's the national
security strategy going forward. Uh the
United States is intent on maintaining
its hegemony for the for the US dollar
and so it needs to make China
subordinate to the US dollar dependent
on the dollar.
>> Yeah. This idea that they will in in
this new imperial phase of the United
States that they will either exploit or
abandon. I don't think the Europeans
appreciate this because I heard the same
from Americans as well. Like we we were
trying to decide whether or not we
should make it an exclusive Syrian
influence for the United States or just
extract the wealth. But uh if it's
option between exploiting or abandoning
the Europeans can't envision a future
without the leadership of the US. So
they're allowing I think the US to
extract wealth at the moment through all
this uh you trying to trans yeah putting
companies across the Atlantic or or this
trade deals which are so horrible uh but
they still signed them on Trump's golf
course. But of course this is temporary
a temporary fix. Once uh America
extracted everything it needs Europe is
even weaker more irrelevant and it will
be abandoned anyways. But uh uh the well
again there's no no discussion in the
political class what to do. It's just
the assumption of this Trump is a bad
man and if we just wait him out things
will go back to normal. That's literally
what they're doing. They believe that in
2028 the Democrats will come in reverse
all of Trump's policies uh as Biden did
in 2020. And what the Europeans don't
realize is that this is a new reality.
We're not going back to 2020. Even if
the Democrats were to come in in 2028,
they're going to maintain Trump's
imperial policies because this is the
best interest of America. America has no
benefit from helping Europe in any way.
>> No, especially if it grows even more
irrelevant. I mean uh but they don't
they don't see it in terms of national
interest and the the value of a an
alliance. They they talk about
friendship and values which is kind of a it's
it's
>> but that's again where the ideology
comes in. I mean this is they they
convince them themselves that this is
what glues us together as opposed to
having common strategic interest. Uh but
um but for the United States though, do
you see overall it uh the its power uh
retrenching? Will they overextend or
will there just be a complete absence of
a coherent strategy?
>> So um what we're seeing is acceler
acceleration of the demise of American
empire. So, let's go back to Venezuela.
And I'm sure, you know, everyone saw
what happened where, you know, these um
Chinok helicopters carrying Delta Force
special operators flew into Caracus and
killed basically Maduro's security team,
Cuban security team, and then escorted
him to New York where he was uh
perwalked. And it seemed as though, you
know, a triumph of the Romans, right,
where they brought in these kings who
they captured and they paraded him
through the streets of Rome. And so in
America, everyone's ecstatic about this.
Everyone thinks this is tremendous. But
what you don't what what people don't
recognize is that, you know, the reason
why Americans didn't do this in the past
is because it's stupid to do this sort
of stuff, right? Because um why would
you insult a nation like this? So, not
only did the Americans go kidnapped a
head of state, a sovereign head of state
who represent the state itself, but they
also destroyed the masam of Higos Sabas
um who is the spiritual hero of the
Shiovas Chavasmo movement in Venezuela
who is the current uh regime in
Venezuela. So, Trump has made it
impossible now for United States to seek
an arrangement for Venezuela. Even if
there's some negotiation that takes
place, it's going to end end up in bad
faith because Venezuel have lost trust
in uh United States. But not only that,
but South America right now will rally
against United States. Trump has
threatened both Mexico and um Colombia.
He has his eyes set on Cuba uh on
Nicaragua. So now the South Americans
are like, you know, we can't we can't
trust the Americans. We need to stick
together. and they're going to resist
American American power and and then
Africa, Europe, uh the entire world is
going to see America for the bully that
it is. So listen, America had the
greatest n military for the past 50 60
years. It didn't really want to use its
military because once you start using
your military, you're stuck using the
military forever, right? you're better
off using soft power through um you
you're better off using covert ops uh u propaganda
propaganda
um you know infiltration and that's what
America did really well for these 50 60
years and and they could have done the
same thing in Venezuela where you know
they could have just basically bribed
Maduro bribe the elite to seek in um an
economic treaty with the United States
where all oil belonged to the United
States and Venezuel would have agreed to
this and all of South America would have
been happy with this deal. Um, but
instead it chose to uh do what it did
because it wanted to project strength
and power. And so it sacrificed strategy
for optics. And this is a sign of an
empire in decline where it's no longer
capable of grand strategy, where it's no
longer capable of foresight. It's no
longer capable of restraint and
humility. It's complete hubris. We see
this all the time when empires are in uh
decline where not only does it
antagonize its enemies but also
antagonize its own allies and exploits
its vassels. So what the United States
is doing it's suicidal it's um shortterm
it's stupid and look in the short term I
say for the next two to three years it
will look great in that you know America
is able to control the entire western he
hemisphere or the world bows to America
in the long term um you you have sold
the seeds for global um discontent for a
global revolution against American power
and basically I think that the American
empire is done with.
>> Yeah. The French philosopher um Emanuel
Todd, he he he calls this micro
militarism and he he sees it as a common
trait as you suggest of a declining
empire that is to seek the military
solutions to against minor states, easy
targets to project strength and cover up
uh yeah declining
status in the world. Uh but no, I think
you're right. Of course, this is a this
is the extraordinary thing. Uh Maduro
was, you know, resented many places in
Latin America, even especially by the
Brazilians. But none of the Latin
Americans want to see this kind of
thing, the US restoring its empire and
hedgeimonyy across Americas through
military force. It's so
counterproductive it seems though.
>> Look, Maduro, regardless of his fault,
okay, and he has lots of faults, he was
the head of state of Venezuela. He
represent the nation state. So when you
kidnap Maduro in this manner and you
humiliate him in such a manner in New
York City, you are humiliating the
people as well. So this can only end in
disaster for America.
>> Yeah. Well, in the US, uh, a lot of
people fiercely hate Donald Trump,
especially here, the Democrats. But if
you would have China, Russia kidnapping
Donald Trump, parading him down the
streets, you know, this will be a
national humiliation. Even the biggest
haters of Trump would see this attack on
America. But again, I this is the
problem when you only focus on on
leaders. The assumption you take this
guy out, put in someone else and then
everything will be fine. Even this time
didn't even put in someone new. Just
took the leader and then hope that
everything would fall apart. I think
this dictator, this is the whenever we
call our adversaries dictators, this is
the assumption. You just remove the head
of state and then everything will fall
apart, which is uh Yeah. So look, look,
look, that's how Donald Trump thinks. He
he thinks that, oh, I've captured
Maduro, therefore now Venezuela belongs
to me, and Venezuela now must obey what
I tell them because I've captured their
head of state. Um, he lives in his own
reality, you know, he, you know, he he
spent too much time doing reality TV,
The Apprentice. And so he thinks that,
you know, if I can just make people
believe this, it'll become reality. And
he doesn't recognize that there are
these fundamental laws to geopolitics.
Um, so an example is, you know, Trump
when he was with the Apprentice, it had
the um best ratings on TV, but whenever
Trump ran a business, he ran into the
ground. He destroyed every single
business that he touched. So that's a
man he is. And like he's going to get
great TV ratings, but he's he's
destroyed America in the process.
>> I often refer to this uh scene in the
head with Sinsky in the Oval Office when
after scolding Silinski and he just
looked towards the camera. Well, this is
great TV. I think he forgets the actual
role he's in. President
>> he does not live he does not live in our
world. He lives in his own world Trump
world and it's all make believe and and
and in his world he thinks that hey if I
can manifest this idea if I can make
enough people believe this idea it will
become reality. Okay. In his world he
thinks that he is making America great
again by resurrecting the American
empire. He believes that by you know
captaining Maduro, by bombing Iran, he
is projecting force and if people
understand how powerful America is,
everyone will bow to America and just
obey America and and all the problems
will just vanish. The debt will vanish.
This the polarization will vanish. Um
all all this discontent will vanish. [snorts]
[snorts]
>> Yeah. Well, it's possible he's able to
topple the government there. But I did
think it was a bit premature when he
when he, you know, he kidnaps Maduro and
then he says, "Well, we're going to run
um Venezuela now like a colony until we
find someone to take over like a puppet
regime." But I I was I thought, well,
you know, don't don't sell this don't
don't sell the fur onto our skin before
we kill the beer. It's why the
government is still in place. I thought
it was a bit premature, but uh again,
maybe they have a plan or maybe it's
just complete delusion. Who knows?
>> In Trump world, because he was able to
kidnap Maduro, which was a u feat of
spectacular television. Okay. Looked
great on TV. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> He had won. He thought he had won the
war and now the people of Venezuela must
obey him because he's proven himself to
the god Emperor Trump. Okay. In his
world, in his mind, he literally
believes that he now controls Venezuela
because he now has Maduro in his hands.
That's what he literally believes.
Yeah. Well, uh on um the global south
though, uh do you see any other
developments um predictions for 2026? Uh
uh given that you predicted the the
attack on Iran, do you see another
attack in 2026 because it appears that
uh the Israelis are selling this very
hard to Trump though.
>> Look, Trump is going to continue his
attacks everywhere, okay? So, expect
land strikes against cartels in Mexico.
expect um land strikes uh in Colombia.
Uh that's a massive American Navy
assembled in Caribbean, it's not going
away. It's still going to, you know, uh
attack um fishing boats. It's still
going to do what it's going to do. So,
the American military presence in the
Caribbean is is only going to uh
increase because what Trump wants to do
is bring the entire global south under
under its control. And then in April
when he goes to China, he now has
leverage over China. Okay. Everything is
leading to April where um Trump wants to
sit down with China and negotiate a
grand bargain in which and an example is
where okay, you know what, you're the
subordinate to the empire China. So what
what's happen is this. We control
Venezuela, but we will allow you to go
into Venezuela and build the oil
infrastructure so you can extract it and
buy from us with US dollars. Okay,
that's that's literally what Trump has
planned in April.
>> And how will the Chinese respond to this though?
though?
>> That's a great question. And how China
responds will determine next five years.
So um I'm based in China. I know China
very well. And I will tell you like
right now there's a lot of debate within
China. Uh there's a lot of different
factions who have who propose different
strategies. Some are very pro-Russian
and says listen in the long term we're
better off for Russia. But there are
also some of factions who are like you
know what you know what we don't we
don't become too reliant on Russia. If
we get 100% of of oil supply from Russia
that's gonna be a problem. So maybe it's
better to get you know 50% from America
50% from Russia. So you have a whole
spectrum of views and um what China will
decide in April will depend on how these
different factions um uh coales together
and and they will also have to look at
the geopolitical uh environment and then
there's these domestic concerns as well.
Um, so I couldn't tell you right now
what will happen in April, but my
thinking is if I were a betting man, I
would think that China and United States
will come to a grand bargain. But this
grand bargain will not actually alter
the geopolitical landscape, meaning that
the empire will still collapse and
you'll still have wars raging over the
>> Yeah. Well, uh I think that yeah, the
three main rules of energy security is
yeah, diversify, diversify, diversify.
So, it's probably a good move for China
not to become excessively dependent on
chi on Russia. So, yeah, main partner
good. But, um yeah, and any country
wouldn't want to put themsel in that
position where all eggs are in one
basket. Uh but uh again, back to Iran
though because again, I think you're
right. There's many countries who could
be next. Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, Panama.
Uh well, de facto Denmark taking Greenland
Greenland
could go back to Gaza, Lebanon, they
could lose Syria, go back in there.
Russia, intensify,
China, of course, yeah, Nigeria, maybe
they're not done bombing there. So,
there seems to be a lot of countries on
Trump's war list. But, uh uh but in
terms of Iran, how how likely do you
think this is that there will be a
doover? because they didn't go as well
as the hope last time obviously.
>> So I think that Trump um was elected
um the Israelis helped to elect Trump
because remember uh Maron Aden gave um
$100 million to Trump, right? So um and
a lot of it was that Trump agreed that
he would resolve the Iran issue and we
saw that in June in Operation Midnight
Hammer. But you know Trump is transactional.
transactional.
So he is going to invade Iran at some
point but he wants to maximize his own
personal benefit. Okay. So what that
what this means is that he's looking for
as much as possible from the Israelis.
So what's happened is that Ellen Mus has
promised Trump $20 million
um for the midterms in November. Miam
Alison has promised Trump $250 million
if he if he were to run for a third
term. Okay. So Trump is trying to maximize
maximize
u as many benefits as possible before he
proposal trigger and orders an American
attack on Iran. But all the seats are in
place, right? Because we're seeing all
these protests in um Iran. We can never
know for sure the extent of these
protests, but we can know that listen,
you have these Mossad agents in there.
You've got all this um American special
forces in there. A lot of money is being
spent on bribing these criminal
networks, minorities,
um dissident to cause as much havoc as
possible in Iran. And quite honestly,
Iran itself is facing a lot of economic
issues because of this American embargo.
So, um um Iran is in a lot of trouble in
2026, but whether or not Trump pulls a
trigger in 26 26 is I I can't tell you.
Um, it's possible he launches more
strikes, but the real issue is, will
Trump launch a ground invasion of Iran
because Israel wants regime change in
Iran and the only way we can do that is
with ground troops. Um, air strikes
won't do it and Israel itself cannot do
it by itself. So, it needs the United
States to send in ground troops. Um so 2026
2026
I think we'll see an acceleration of
events but um but but maybe 2027 is when
we'll have the full climax. [snorts]
>> Yeah. But with this great power rivalry
with the Chinese, the Russians,
reasserting dominance over the Western
Hemisphere uh during an economic crisis.
It just seems [laughter] going going
after ground invasion of Iran would
really be overextending. This is not
going to be Iraq. This is a very
different uh animal. I mean, Iran is a
is huge territory. It's a much larger
population. It's much more powerful
militarily. This could be a this will be
a disaster. You know,
>> sorry, facts don't matter to Trump,
okay? They've never mattered to Trump.
You know, they tried for the longest
time to give Trump press briefings,
right? Daily briefings where he was
updated on geopolitics. And at first it
was a page and they recognized he
doesn't even have the attention span for
a page. So they trans they they made it
a paragraph and they recognize oh my god
he can't even read a paragraph. So what
they figured out was that this guy
watches TV all the time. So if you want
Trump's attention if you want him to
recognize certain aspects of foreign
policy you need to go on Fox News and
tell it to him there. Okay. So this
guy's brain is a TV set and so he
doesn't re recognize uh the fundamental
rules of geopolitics. He doesn't
understand what it means to be
overextanded, what it means
um to have enough resources to fight
wars. All he sees is optics, right? So
he thinks that this this thing in
Venezuela was a huge success. Why can't
we do the same thing in Mexico? Why
can't we do the same thing in Cuba? And
why can't we do the same thing in Iran?
So for Trump, it's it's all about
optics, about visuals. He sees him he
sees him he sees these Teleforce uh
operators um flying into uh Tran and
blowing blowing things up and that's
that's how how his mind works.
There's a lot of focus on the United
States overextending its hard power, but
I think it's also overextending its diplomatic
diplomatic
um capital because Trump only speaks in
this language of oh this is my dear
friend or best friends in order to you
know be as as his good cop or he's going
to destroy you which is his bad cop. But
it's either or. and he tends to switch
back and forth to the point at least
what I hear from the Russians that they
they don't take him that seriously
anymore because nothing he says will
last for more than a week because he
will switch again. I mean now he's oh
Vladimir my good friend and now I will
destroy their economy and you know we'll
kill some more Russians. I mean this is
it's um there's no consistency. It's
either Yeah, but that was my point with
Chinese as well. either you build trust
trust in America's economic
infrastructure or you try to core
something but you can't do both.
>> Well, I I think I think he is
consistent. He's a mafia boss and that's
why people don't really understand about
him. You know, he's not the president of
United States. He's a mafia boss. And
once you appreciate that, then it's he's
easy to deal with. Just don't trust him.
Just don't don't take what he says with
just don't believe anything he says. you
know, he's going to do what is in his
own personal best interest. Not
necessarily in the best interest of the
United States, but his own best
interest. He's going to do what makes
him look good. This Maduro raid was
counterproductive for the United States.
It really hurt the American um standing
around the world. Um it made America
look like a criminal enterprise, but he
doesn't care because it made him look
good on TV.
Well, do you have any final thoughts on
uh 2026 uh before we wrap up?
>> Um yeah, so I would say that this event
uh in April when Trump visits China
um Trump needs to figure out a lot of
things before April. Okay. So what we're
seeing in South America is the United
States establishing hijgemony, military
hijgemony throughout South America. Um
and we can see and we will see an
escalation of that over the next few
months. Um especially with regards to
Colombia and Mexico. Um possibly Brazil
as well where Trump gets into um an
argument with Lula for whatever reason.
Trump likes that to show that he's he's
the boss. Um we can also expect to see
more conflict in Africa as well because
Africa is where uh in national security
strategy Trump said very vocally that he
will not seat Africa to China that they
that America and its allies will
challenge America uh will challenge
China wherever he can. And the last uh
area would be China Japan. So I would
say that um as time goes by uh the
conflict between Japan and China will
just increase because uh Trump needs to
exert as much leverage over China uh as
much as possible and then you'll have
this um meeting in April and I think
there are four meetings actually
scheduled for 2026. So Trump needs to
resolve the China issue and the reason
why is the endgame is Iran. He needs to
resolve the China issue before he
launches a full force invasion of Iran.
Um, Russia will come to Iran's defense.
There's nothing that Trump can do about
it. The wild card right now is China.
What China will do uh in response to an
Iran invasion. And so um the endgame is
Iran. China is um maybe the um
penultimate boss before Iran. But but
but I think if I were betting man and I
think people will be surprised by this,
China, United States will come to an arrangement.
arrangement.
>> Well, I'll keep a I think everyone
should keep an eye on April then. And uh
I I like the idea that if there's two
major powers, the US and China can work
out a deal then uh other pieces can fall
in place. On the other hand, if they
work at a deal, it could also be
something about the US uh asserting its
dominance in its near abroad. It's uh
the Arabs have a nice expression. I
think it's along the line that you know
when the elephants fight the the grass
get uh trampled but uh when the
elephants make love it also gets
flattened. So you know right
>> so so they're screwed anyways. That's my
point. So anyways thank you so much for
taking time. >> Thank you.
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