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鄭麗文回台!是賣台還是惠台?

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The content is a multifaceted discussion covering a spiritual ceremony announcement, political commentary on cross-strait relations and KMT leadership, and a detailed geopolitical analysis of the US-Iran conflict and its global economic implications.

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Hello everyone,

I'm Teacher Chen.

Welcome to our live stream today!

It's a

very exciting day!

First, I

'd like to announce

that our Spring Divination Ceremony will be

held on May 20th.

This year's ceremony is special

because

the divine grace

has granted us an auspicious day for our infertility ceremonies.

These auspicious

days

occur about six times a year,

but

it's

not so easy

for you to happen to be on the right day. I remember it happened about four or five years ago.

This time, it just so happens to

fall in May,

on a very auspicious day.

The divine instruction is

that this is our auspicious day

for holding our Five Directions Herb Garden

Li Dou Divination Ceremony.

All our registration methods

are below.

You can check them after you finish.

Because registration is from May 20th

to May 18th,

it's all automated now.

When the registration time

is up, it will automatically

close, and I can't help it.

So this time,

if you've registered for the Qingming Dharma Assembly

before , just check

your name in the registration form,

and you can register.

Remember, one person is one registration fee.

Don't check 10 people

and say, "Hey teacher, why 10 people, 10 registration fees

?" Yes, 10 people, 10 registration fees.

Okay, haha,

two people, okay?

There's no need to distinguish between the so-called China station or international station.

We'll

all register in one place,

so everyone will have no problem.

Okay, let me tell you this.

Remember, this Dharma Assembly is a difficult one.

Yes , because there are auspicious days

and lucky days

, which is good.

It's best to register as early as possible

because the later

you register, the greater the chance of forgetting.

Our homework starts very early,

so the earlier you register,

the earlier your name will be on the list.

Of course, you can enjoy the

benefits while doing the homework,

even if you register on the last day.

However, the process

is quite long.

The usual practice is 5 days, but

the teacher has extended it to

a much longer time.

Don't ask how long,

it will definitely be longer than 5 days.

This is

because this year is considered unlucky,

so the teacher has extended

the homework and practice sessions,

making sure everyone does special homework every day

to increase our good fortune.

This is my specialty,

so I went to... Okay,

all the other questions should be fine.

I've forgotten the rest.

Any other questions?

There shouldn't be anything else.

In April, the

teacher might go to Shanghai.

If anyone wants to make an appointment with the teacher

, please contact them.

There are some things

the teacher needs to handle in Shanghai

in April . What are the specific issues and when will

the teacher go? I don't know yet

, but it's impossible to go in May

because it's your Golden Week holiday,

everything is expensive, why

would I go?

I won't go, okay

You guys go by yourselves, have fun, okay? You

need to take care of my business and handle some company business,

then we can end this.

Okay, let's begin

this week's live broadcast.

Now,

our KMT Chairman,

Zheng Liwei,

went to mainland China.

Many people, of

course, understand. It's simple,

actually, as Taiwanese people,

it's very simple now:

whoever goes to the mainland

colluding

with the CCP, right?

This has already been tested

. I don't know

what

to mean by questioning our great Party,

oh dear, democratic leaders,

the world's beacon of democracy, the order is so weird,

where did I go wrong

Oh, this is our great leader,

riding a white horse at 6, climbing

Baiyun Mountain at 7,

able to shoot arrows at 9...

wait, who is this?

That seems to be surnamed Kim. Oh

no, surnamed Lai,

seems to be surnamed Kim.

Anyway,

I'm not questioning our great leadership government,

this is just saying the situation.

Actually, if you go there now,

you basically don't have any real power,

quite different from when Ma Yunjiu was.

For a long time,

he actually held real power in one hand. Oh,

he's actually quite different,

but he doesn't have real power here. He's

currently a weak party chairman

because his resources within the KMT

are actually quite limited .

To put it bluntly,

the younger generation will support Cheng Li-wen

, but the older generation will

basically go against him .

Who's the benchmark figure?

It's simple, it's Chao Shao-kang.

People like him, the older generation,

can't stand women engaging in illicit affairs.

Plus, Cheng Li-wen's background

isn't exactly clean

. How should I put it?

Cheng Li-wen is a former member of the DPP,

so he's not exactly the kind of person who... You know,

the pure bloodline

isn't pure.

So,

the Kuomintang actually had a large generation of

middle-aged and

older members

who were quite resentful of

being told what to do

, not showing any consideration for others or the older generation.

They just told them to do what they were

told.

But we need to consider this :

if an organization has a future and hope,

it needs a central leader.

If you don't have a central leader

, or if you don't have the courage

to cut ties with the previous generation,

saying "I can't extend my reach too far"

or "I can't retain your power,

" then the situation becomes very aristocratic.

I think that's bad for any organization,

especially for the higher-ups.

So, you need a new generation of leaders

with the courage to change all of this.

I think this

is quite appropriate

from the perspective of our

historical logic.

This is my personal opinion.

Of course,

this situation,

Zheng Liwei went to

mainland China.

That's very unusual.

I really can't say it's unusual

, but it's actually a very high level of treatment,

probably the highest level of treatment in China.

I genuinely believe that

for a party with the Chinese Communist Party's structure,

this direct approach, bypassing layers of

bureaucracy and directly targeting Xi Jinping,

demonstrates

a very high level of sincerity.

Normally, a

party chairman with little real power

a vice-general secretary or

deputy secretary , or even just a

second or third-ranking official, to discuss the

matter

. But this time, it was a very high-level affair—Xi Jinping, the General Secretary, personally

met with

Zheng

Liwen

, the chairman of the Kuomintang

(KMT) . Don't underestimate the political philosophy in China; there

are many parties,

not just the Chinese Communist Party.

forget where—

to Xi'an or Shanghai,

I 'll

ask Mr. Jin Ying later

I even encountered the KMT headquarters while driving by,

you know?

Haha, that's quite a sight!

I saw the KMT headquarters in mainland China.

Of course, the KMT

is… Our own Kuomintang (KMT)

is not the Kuomintang in Taiwan,

okay? These two are completely different, right

? There are all sorts of different factions here

, but their factions can't

reach the ruling party at all

levels.

Okay, the truth is

, they have factions in various places.

Don't sit there

and think, there aren't any other factions.

Actually, there are other factions

, but they're a bit like rubber stamps.

That's the truth,

they're a bit like rubber stamps

. But, for all of you,

whether you're a political commissar or anyone else,

meeting Xi Jinping

is an extremely difficult thing.

So, for a place like Taiwan Province,

well, it's part of China,

and they think, well,

and then they give your party chairman,

even though you're not from the ruling party,

such an exceptional meeting?

I think that's quite remarkable .

I really think

that's quite remarkable.

So,

we should look at this from this

perspective : China's current and future

situation with Taiwan

is shifting towards

a more open state.

Because without unification,

there's definitely no problem.

These recent military exercises in the Vie Island area

have basically confirmed that

it will be anytime

. Any means,

anywhere

, can complete the encirclement of Taiwan.

Therefore, it's almost certain

that the "five unifications" will be 100% successful.

Don't underestimate

the past

"Joint Sword" exercises.

Those exercises truly

revealed everything about Taiwan

, including its underground and surface defenses,

hydrological conditions,

and air defense capabilities.

They basically knew everything about you.

Don't underestimate these three "Joint Sword" exercises

; they were a crucial watershed moment. Not only has

the median line of the Taiwan Strait

vanished , but they can

also maintain a constant encirclement of

Taiwan

from all four directions.

There's nothing we can do about him.

He can surround us first and then resupply

us; they can actually do that.

But it's different with Japan.

Japan can only

pressure you from one side

in one place.

But with Taiwan,

basically, once you've surrounded us,

you can't react in time.

You might say, "This was a misunderstanding,

I'll show you what's what next time. "

The second time, even though they've already surrounded us,

you still say, "Oh,

this time I was careless, right?

I didn't dodge, right?

Next time,

I'll fight you back, right?"

Our Minister of National Defense has said things like that, hasn't he? But

if they

surround us the third time, well,

that's going too far

, we have no comment.

In the end, there's nothing we can do.

With their three consecutive visits,

they've

essentially blocked all avenues

for our escape

or overseas revival movements.

Since

everything's blocked,

doesn't that mean

they're 100% certain there are no problems?

We can

see from these three visits that

there are absolutely no issues

. So, without any problems, why

are they opening up now?

Well, war is like that.

We can see from all modern wars—

whether it's the war in Thailand,

Iran,

or even

the war between Pakistan and the Taliban—

they all severely damage a nation's strength.

It's certain that

minimizing damage is

ideal

, but the Taiwan issue

is different.

If Taiwan is unified, it will definitely damage the nation

, but minimizing

the damage is the ultimate

goal . So, some people asked

if there would be a [unclear

- possibly a

specific event or

policy] in 2026. Some of the more dangerous ones...

Actually, I mentioned to everyone at the beginning of the year

that the risk factor for 2026 was relatively low.

But this only applies to 2026;

I didn't mention 2027.

Looking at the overall fortune,

plus our party leader,

the great son of democracy,

our

golden grandson

, the great leader,

his own strength

this year is quite good .

Under such favorable circumstances,

will there be any problems?

really, not

really.

As long as he doesn't speak out,

basically this year

will be peaceful and uneventful.

There won't be any major upheavals .

But the teenagers at the end of the year

are a different story.

I'm just saying

that Taiwan's overall fortune,

along with our great leader,

is relatively smooth.

We can understand this. So, what are some of the negotiation policies

that Zheng Liwen

brought back this time?

Actually, there are many.

For example, the first is that

he needs to

establish a communication mechanism

between the KMT and the CCP.

In other words,

he believes that

now there's a need for someone

to talk to him about ideologies and

exchange ideas .

Isn't that a good thing ?

I really think

it is.

You can't say things like, "

We, the KMT and the CCP,

are irreconcilable enemies," or "

Things from decades ago,

" because those things

should be in the past.

I really think

those things from decades ago

should be in the past

. Now,

if they're willing, they should

lower their heads and look at us first.

We shouldn't reject them. "

I can't eat a full meal because of my backbone

." I'm telling you, honestly,

you can't eat a full meal because of your backbone. You should still do what

you need to do.

I'm saying this

is very true, okay? So, this is what

the KMT and the CCP

are saying... The platform-based two-way exchange mechanism for youth

is quite good .

They have youth groups that

can exchange ideas

and visit each other.

In fact, many universities and colleges in Taiwan

have naturalized students.

As you all know,

we don't only have Indonesians

, Thais

, or black people. There are quite a few

yellow-skinned people

in our

colleges and universities . It's just that everyone comes

for

different

reasons

Some come to study

and see what we have,

while

others admire our democracy and freedom

and respect our system.

So,

after the platform is established,

the places you come from... After you arrive,

it's not just a small amount,

but a systematic

exchange between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.

I think this is a good thing.

But the most important thing is the third point. The

third and most important point is

that it promotes the coastal areas of Fujian

to connect with Jingmen and Matsu

under the right conditions

The four

connections

are not just about access

to the sea and swimming,

but about water, electricity , gas, and bridges . This is a very important thing. If you connect Kinmen and Matsu

with Fuzhou in China,

let me be honest.

Once these four connections are established,

you basically don't need to think about

what resistance

Kinmen and Matsu can offer

, because their lives will be in their hands.

You've achieved

that. You

can only

eat and drink

their water, eat their food,

and use their gas.

Does that benefit the people of Kinmen and Matsu ?

Of course it does, right?

The price is different,

isn't it?

You won't have water or power outages, right

? So

you won't have gas outages either

Unless

you turn it into the first beachhead, there shouldn't be any problems with the four connections.

The most important thing is the bridge.

With the connecting bridge,

the People's Liberation Army can just drive across,

right

? Would you dare to blow up the bridge?

You can't, you can blow up the bridge, right? Blowing up the

bridge, wouldn't you blow up yourself?

There's no

advantage to it.

Here's

something you all need to know:

Kinmen and Matsu are incredibly close to Fuzhou.

Really, very close!

I'm not just saying

it feels close ,

it's literally incredibly close .

I'm a second-generation Matsu resident

, and I volunteered to serve in the military there.

Others might be afraid of

the Golden Horse Awards, but I was the one who immediately raised my hand when I went to

Matsu.

If a guide was holding my hand, I'd immediately raise it, right?

If there was an ancestor in Matsu, I'd immediately raise it.

I'd only raise it if I was sure it was my ancestor.

Why go home?

Right? My ancestral home is there.

When I went, there were no family members left

, but I still went.

So when we were on guard duty,

we could see

right across the city. You

could see Fuzhou!

On a clear day,

without fog or

, you could see Fuzhou directly at a glance. Okay,

and you're saying those

vegetables at the vegetable stalls on the ground, where do they come from

? Are they grown locally in Matsu?

Do you believe that?

Yes, they are grown locally

, but you know Matsu is granite,

how can you

grow so much? And where do

the

meat and vegetables come from?

Some things are better

left unsaid

it's pointless to talk about them, you know?

So, Brother Bin,

you have to go shopping every day, right?

Driving that military truck to buy things.

The vegetables and rice you buy,

and what are they

? Rice, no,

rice is something the country provides,

right? And where do

the vegetables and meat come from?

Think about where those vegetables come from

. Aren't they just fatty meat?

Hey,

that's a very normal thing.

And Brother Bin,

sometimes you secretly go down the mountain to buy alcohol, right? You buy

alcohol and come back, it's Red Star Erguotou,

and later, mainland liquor. Is it good?

Not really,

I really think...

It didn't taste good,

but the Red Star Erguotou I drank was

n't genuine,

otherwise I really wouldn't have thought it tasted good

. So, this means that

between the two sides of the strait,

basically, as long as Kinmen and Matsu

have these four links,

they've already enjoyed the advantages of others' self-interest.

So, if it really comes to taking over Taiwan,

neither side needs to defend

themselves, right?

They can just surrender on the spot.

No matter how badly you can't

beat them,

even if you don't have these links, if

they want to attack you,

it'll be a quick thing.

People on both sides of the strait,

I'm telling you... Let me tell you

something .

For example, if you go to Xiamen,

right?

How many people from Kinmen bought houses there?

I'm telling you,

a lot of them

are from Kinmen and Matsu.

They bought houses in Xiamen and Fuzhou a long time ago,

buying huge amounts,

right? Some people bought a lot

, even a lot.

They had foresight

, right? Now the prices

have increased 30 to 50 times, more than that.

Why? Because they bought 30 or 40 years ago.

You can't do anything about

it . 30 to 40 years ago,

about 25 to 30 years ago,

like some people I know,

they bought

there, right? Did they make a profit?

Making money? It's like

making a fortune !

People are going to Shenzhen to buy

things, right? Making a fortune

! You could live three lifetimes

and still earn more

just by buying three

or five houses. How much

did those

houses cost before? There's no price list,

okay?

So,

given the conditions along the Fujian coast,

providing water, electricity, gas, and bridges to Jingmen and Mazi

is extremely important.

Of course, there's some unnecessary talk later,

like the 1992 Consensus.

The 1992 Consensus is necessary

because

we have no choice but to deal with it

as required.

But regarding the "One China" consensus,

and whether it's about "each side having its own interpretation,"

I didn't see the main point this time:

"One China."

On the

basis

of opposing Taiwan independence , it didn't specifically emphasize whether there 's "each side having its own interpretation

" within "One China."

This is actually a controversial point.

But... Under this premise,

Taiwanese agricultural products that meet quarantine requirements

can be imported into mainland China for convenience.

it's very simple.

The requirement

is that the packaging must say "China, Taiwan,"

it's that simple,

right

? If it passes quarantine

, the

farmers must write "China, Taiwan" on the export label

, otherwise it can't enter. Either

you don't sell

, or you have to do it this way.

You can't say, "I want to make money in China,

so I don't obey China's regulations."

There's no way around it

because the packaging requires you to write it like that.

So it's all about "

If you want money, come on

over." Anyway, China is so big, it

won't make a difference if

you don't comply with our rules. You have to obey our rules.

You agree, right?

Many people say this is lowering national dignity.

I say this is controversial,

right? For example, if you go

to an Arab country,

don't you see women drinking, dancing

, and singing in the streets at night?

Will you arrest me?

You say it violates the freedom of sexuality, but that's not okay because that's their rule, right? There's nothing you can do

Take

India, for example. You say I can open a steakhouse, right

? Nobody dares to eat there,

right? They even dare

to vandalize it . So you say you're interfering with my freedom of eating

? You can say that,

but there's nothing

you can do. It's a country that considers cows sacred.

There are many things

where the situation is beyond your control

. Either you obey their rules

, or you don't sell.

They're not forcing you to sell

. It's a very realistic thing.

And the most important thing is that

research is being conducted on suitable areas

to build docks for Taiwanese deep-sea fishing boats

to moor and unload their catch

. In other words, Taiwanese

fishing boats

can sell their catch to the mainland.

It's that simple

. It's very simple.

Also, it's about

facilitating the import of

Taiwanese food products into the mainland by registering Taiwanese food companies

. The food industry in Taiwan

can import products to the mainland,

establish a company there

, pay taxes according to local laws,

and then

sell the products.

This is the model.

We can actually see a similar approach

After Hainan Island was closed off from the mainland,

it basically welcomed countries

to engage in production,

trade, and processing

there, and then resell the products.

This

had already been piloted in Guangdong

and Fujian

in the early days

, but you couldn't convert exports to domestic sales.

Back then,

with processing trade

and import/export,

you couldn't convert exports to domestic sales,

otherwise you would be heavily taxed.

Now, with Hainan Island closed off from the mainland,

as we mentioned before,

it welcomes you to operate there.

Converting to domestic sales only requires paying taxes;

there's

no such strict prohibition.

So,

this is quite interesting.

It's really interesting

that Taiwan's fishing boat food industry

and small-scale commodity trading markets

—meaning

some of Taiwan's entrepreneurial industries—

can also start selling in China.

This kind of thing

actually existed in the past

, it 's not new.

Many people in Taiwan,

if you really open TikTok, let

me tell you,

many people in Taiwan

are live-streaming

every day.

Before, it wasn't allowed to live-stream on TikTok in Taiwan.

Seriously,

it wasn't possible before.

Now that TikTok has opened up

in Taiwan—

the mainland version of TikTok—

people can live-stream in Taiwan.

So many people have already

started live-streaming

at places like Taipei Main Station

, on island tours, or various food and drink activities,

right? Why?

Because they're

looking for a new platform

. You can't say they're wrong

. Many Taiwanese internet celebrities

are now developing their careers in China.

You can't say they're wrong

because everyone

has their own space for production and development.

How can you stop others?

If you're well-fed at home,

who wants to eat out?

Right? There will always be such demands

and behaviors.

This isn't about beautifying others;

I just think the world is like this

. The more closed off you are,

the less you can have better exchanges.

Other aspects

include Taiwanese dramas,

documentaries, and

animations being broadcast on the mainland

, of course, they must meet their standards.

It's simple;

their standards are like that.

So, if you want to do

something in Taiwan's cultural and creative industries,

you have to meet their standards.

Finally,

the

tenth point is crucial.

We just mentioned the second point as

crucial, and the fourth and tenth points are also crucial.

How about

promoting

individual travel

to Taiwan for residents of Shanghai and Fujian ? This is a huge move.

I'm telling you,

this means

Taiwan's tourism industry

has a chance to revive.

Seriously, is

this mainland's approach economic united front?

I honestly say

it is

Who dares to say it isn't? Right

? Let others have enough to eat.

Why wouldn't people favor you?

This is a very real situation.

So, the resumption

of the tourism pilot program

for residents of Shanghai and Fujian to travel to Taiwan

actually opened a huge window.

Why do you need to look at this?

Let's not even talk about Fujian, such a large province

. Fujian

is actually divided into many regions.

For example, there's Southern Fujian

, where we speak the Minnan language system, right?

Then there's Western Fujian, where the Hakka people live,

Northern Fujian,

and another system, Eastern Fujian.

There are four systems in total.

Let's not talk about how many people live

in such a large place, right

? Let's just take Shanghai as an example . Shanghai

has more than 22 million people, which is

100 million fewer than the total population of Taiwan

The population

of Shanghai alone is

equivalent to that of Taiwan.

Even if people came from there,

it's simple:

if they brought an extra 1 million

or even 500,000 tourists each year , it would benefit

all sectors of Taiwan's economy.

Because Taiwan's tourism

industry is currently in

dire straits,

a truly

miserable

state.

You can't say that

a certain village

has outdated

infrastructure

or anything like that.

Yes, it is outdated,

but the problem is, without so many tourists,

how can

amusement park and ride companies update their

equipment

isn't something you can fix for three or five thousand dollars.

You can't upgrade a single machine

without spending three to

five million dollars!

You need to understand,

those big arcade machines

have maintenance costs of hundreds of thousands of dollars per move

, and then there are upgrade costs of millions.

Those are very expensive, okay?

Heavy machinery isn't something you

can fix with a plumber for two or three thousand dollars.

Upgrades start

at millions.

But if you don't have that many tourists,

what can you do with millions?

Right? So when you have visitors,

let them experience

Taiwan's various soft culture.

We can also use that

as a counter-unification tactic, right? Promote our freedom, democracy, and fraternity,

isn't that also possible? That's what

people say. Once the mainland arrives

, our various industries

, especially our snacks and local

specialties, will flourish

. Of course, many of the raw materials

are

imported from the mainland

, but once these products

enter Taiwan, and

Taiwan distributes them through wholesale

and retail,

don't we have the opportunity

revitalize our economy?

Therefore, tourism

is crucial. While things like connecting

Kinmen and Matsu with gas, water, electricity, and bridges

are temporary

, the truly important thing is...

The tenth point is that Shanghai, as a deputy provincial capital of Fujian, is

a test point

. If they open up to 5,000 to 10,000 people every day,

I'm telling you,

there's a difference

. There really is a difference.

Taiwan's economy

can still recover thanks to this place.

For example, the simplest thing is

that Taiwan is now restricting plastic bags,

so we can't buy plastic bags anymore

I haven't gone to buy them

, I don't know if they're really unavailable.

I went to buy them,

and they were still available for

5 yuan each. I don't know

if other things are really unavailable

, but using fewer plastic bags is a good thing.

But we need to know one thing

: many things can

actually

be purchased directly from mainland China

, but that depends on

whether they have a shortage there, right? You can

buy them from them,

maybe they're

a bit more expensive.

So, this is a double whammy.

We need to understand

that

the more you try to separate the two sides of the Taiwan Strait,

the less you can separate them,

because of the global situation

. When you enter a major consolidation period,

the more you try to distance

yourself from it, the less you can,

because you simply can't separate yourself from basic necessities

like food, clothing, shelter, and transportation

. This is a very important concept.

So, you might ask, "If someone comes back here,

will they benefit?"

Frankly speaking,

someone has

set a trap for them.

They come, and

've put on this show together.

After the show

, I'll bring back something useful.

So, people feel

what's useful to them and

what's useless.

Being well-fed is the most useful

thing, right ?

In the past, when the economy was good, people said, "Even if

your stomach is flat, you have to keep it flat," right? Were they

really flat then? No,

back then the economy was still strong

, with many benefits.

So, you say, "Even if your stomach is flat, you have to keep it flat," what

do people think

? It's okay,

it won't really collapse ,

it's just talk,

everyone knows

it's just talk,

right? But now it really

does collapse, right?

A simple chicken leg bento box costs over 120 yuan.

I used to eat one for 90 yuan,

and in five months it went from 90 to 100,

then 110,

then 120.

In just five months, it went up

by about 30, 40, 50

, or even 140 yuan. That's how it

is; you can't resist the soaring prices.

Because the world isn't peaceful now,

everyone needs to understand this.

The world isn't peaceful now. We

have enough resources

than in the peaceful and prosperous times of the past

, and we 'll have even more

resources now .

The whole world should share,

but politics prevents us from using it . Okay,

that's a distribution problem.

Okay, that's a distribution problem

. Honestly,

if you really open your mind and study things

like Adam Smith's Father-Uncle Theory

or Lenin

's theory of surplus value,

you'll find different verifications

within many theories.

Even Sun Yat-sen's nation-building strategies and

many other things were very visionary.

But what is the basis for this?

Humanity keeps making the same mistakes

. Those who want more

want more, and those who lack more

lack even more.

This creates an imbalance.

We need to watch the teacher's live stream and program

to understand

that this imbalance is already a reality,

and we are powerless to resist it.

We can't go back to

the way things are now,

to the people who can breathe normally like me.

This applies to our lifetimes,

including your newborn child.

We can't return to that

peaceful and happy life

where, from birth

, I knew what school my child would attend,

what class they would work in, that they would have an income,

and that they could start a family.

But we can't go

back; we definitely can't.

So, we can only learn from this experience

which way the wind blows,

how to sway like a willow in the wind.

You

have to adapt to the times.

The bigger the trend, the more you can't resist it

, but you have to be flexible,

right? Don't cling to past patterns

. The future will definitely change;

it's impossible.

The Tang Dynasty's golden age won't return, right?

The Manchu nobles

won't return either.

Is it possible for the Aisin Gioro clan to restore power? Impossible, right

? Is

it possible for the Emperor to regain real power

? Impossible, right?

These are all realities.

Honestly,

many Japanese people argue with teachers

that Japan has an unbroken imperial lineage, and

the Emperor is always supreme.

I still want to say something

to you: don't argue with me about Japan.

The Japanese Emperor

is a super puppet.

You know, apart from Emperor Meiji

and his earliest... Aside from a few emperors,

most emperors have no real power.

They are all just figureheads,

like Fujita Yoshimi and

the like.

They can't do anything they want.

So the Japanese emperor is just a puppet,

right?

If you really look at Japanese history,

there are emperors who lead rebellions

, emperors who lead villains

to attack entire cities, right

? There are, okay?

So it's quite interesting how humans are.

The more human they are, the more

they feel that this

is a place with high morale.

So from this perspective,

it has probably been labeled as pro-China,

meaning you must be selling out Taiwan and being

a fellow traveler of the CCP

. You've heard this before,

everyone, that's all you need to know, okay?

I see if you have any questions

. Thank you, Teacher Xu!

Xu! Thank you for sponsoring our million-follower internet celebrity, Teacher Xu

! Thank you, thank you!

Lei Jun, Chairman of Xiaomi, explained the automotive industry.

This is very impressive!

AI Gulu alu

AI Gulu ga ga

oh No, I don't know what to say

, haha

. Ideological confrontation is helpless.

Taiwan has made progress in various fields.

It's really like that.

There's nothing we can do.

The mainland is open,

but Taiwan is restrictive.

So , is opening up

useful? Hey,

if you don't accept the ball after it's opened up

, then that pretext is there,

just like you.

You're so smart,

you can insist on the government, right?

Others can also open up to us

, but we don't accept.

That issue will be reflected in the year-end elections,

right? This is their economic united front.

It's very simple:

you can not accept,

but I've already opened up.

If you don't accept, that's your business.

I have sincerity . If we

don't close the deal, that's your business, right?

It's the same as a company.

An outside client wants to sign a contract,

but the sales manager says, "Salesperson, you can't sign it;

it has to be under my name."

Do you think the salesperson is willing to accept that?

Hey, this thing becomes, well,

everyone goes and brews these things on their own

. Your reaction is very good.

The mainland is willing to open up

to Taiwan, while

Taiwan is willing to restrict it.

So, is your opening up useful? Well,

that depends on your name and

how you handle it.

Because this year is an election, this year is the

election of the limited-time price increase,

right?

This election is the limited-time price increase

because it's the same as we predicted before

. I predicted that Huang Kuo-chang

would run for mayor of New Taipei City

, right? And now,

Ko Wen-je

has pushed him into the New Taipei City mayoral election,

right?

Currently, because other parties haven't come out yet

, we won't make any orders. We'll

talk about it tomorrow. But

basically, Huang Kuo-chang's luck is pretty good this year,

okay? His luck is pretty good this year.

Don't say I support Huang Kuo-chang.

I think this person is... I have no opinion.

I really have no opinion.

If we look at

him from the perspective of a law undergraduate, he is really very strong. Honestly,

if we consider

Professor Wang Guochang's undergraduate law degree,

his abilities are

more than enough to make

him a

brilliant and outstanding lawyer

. Even if he weren't in Taiwan, he

could easily be a top-notch partner

in the US or another country

. The same goes for Chiang Wan-an;

they are both very capable .

Returning to Taiwan to revitalize things,

I really think,

unless you truly prioritize ideals above all else

, it's a waste of your life, whether it's making money

or your personal life.

Whether it's Fang Guoshan or Chiang Wan-an,

they're

essentially wasting their lives.

It's a terrible

waste of your precious life. So, even if this last chance for

peaceful

reunification

fully realized

, it won't be a peaceful reunification. Ah,

we definitely need to use force to intimidate them,

but how will the Taiwanese people choose

? Let history decide,

okay? Let history decide...

Well

, that's just how it is.

We can only say what

will happen. Will I be investigated for

this strange thing

? Okay, I won't talk about this anymore.

You

all need to know

that under the National Security Law,

there are some things that we anchors, like us,

don't have any backing

My backing is you all. But

when people cause me trouble,

you can't help me,

hahaha

. So

, sometimes I have no choice

but to say,

please understand.

Okay

, next, let's look at this.

This is the US-Iran battlefield

. The US-

Iran battlefield is actually on the verge of collapse.

Actually, this is always the result of being on the verge of collapse.

the "Willow

Leaf General Theory," it was mentioned that

if you reach an agreement in April

, there will be wrangling in May. If

war breaks out in April

, someone will come to mediate in May.

So, as you

can

all see

, I initially thought

everyone could negotiate.

Why?

Let me take a sip of coffee

and we'll explain in detail.

Okay

, everyone, let's continue.

So,

in this new round of negotiations,

as of

today

, April 12th,

US Vice President Vance

said

that no one can reach an agreement.

So, the final solution proposed by the US

for Iran

is basically a smokescreen.

Honestly,

any country sees through this very clearly now.

The US talks to you...

Any signal flares

or meetings used to initiate peace talks

are merely delaying tactics to buy time for the US

to maneuver

. They never intended to negotiate in the first place,

right? For example,

Iran had so many talks

about denuclearization, and

then a few days later,

US planes flew over and

bombed Iran's nuclear facilities.

How can you say you

'll talk eventually

then bomb one of your facilities?

Then you say you'll talk,

the 12-day war is over

, then you take a break,

and then half a year later,

you're completely destroyed, leaving nothing

but ruin

. So

, for the US,

any negotiations

are just a delaying tactic,

giving them time to maneuver.

As for Iran,

I think that

although they say they've already... An agreement has been reached,

but I believe he hasn't truly stopped.

If he had,

I think their decision-making would be problematic.

I personally think they have a problem.

And why is there a problem here?

Because it's actually quite simple.

The biggest issue is the toll collection right—

the Strait of Hormuz.

I believe

it's essentially a very basic negotiation. As

Professor Zhang mentioned in the previous live broadcast

, after we finished,

we know

Trump said

he wanted to collect

tolls on the Strait of Hormuz.

But seeing Kim Jong-un,

would Iran agree to not collect tolls?

Impossible. Because it's very simple.

The Panama Canal demonstrates this

, right? The Panama Canal was built by the United States,

... The US charging tolls and

then giving them to Panama

was a matter of its own policy

and political considerations.

But

what about

the Strait of Malacca

, right ?

Singapore,

or somewhere else —

if you charge tolls,

can you really avoid it?

No,

because it's clearly a place where you can make money.

Since it can make money

, why should I let

you make it?

Iran can't let the Strait of Hormuz go either.

If there's tolls

, it has to be primarily responsible for collecting them.

And this is a

prerequisite—it's not collecting tolls together with the US.

I believe that if they establish a holding company,

the prerequisite is

that all Iranian assets must be cancelled,

and then a promise is made never to attack Iran again.

Then, the Strait of Hormuz will be divided according

to a 70/30 split

: Iran 70%,

US 30%. Then, I think this matter can be discussed.

The US definitely can't accept 30%

because they've sacrificed so much ammunition

and fought such a long war

. If you only take 30%

, they won't agree. They

definitely

want it all,

you know?

They didn't say they only wanted a small portion.

Under these circumstances

, negotiations are impossible

because the transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz

are too lucrative.

It's obvious

that they can earn at least several hundred billion dollars a year,

no problem

. Several hundred billion dollars,

and that's calculated in US dollars.

If the transit fees were converted to RMB,

China would be ecstatic, and

Iran would be ecstatic too.

Why? Because

they would have to buy in RMB.

China has openly and legitimately

bought so many Chinese goods

, and Iran could then resell them to China.

So, Iran could openly and legitimately fleece China.

China would also find this normal.

Why?

Because if I give you this currency,

you have to pay the transit fees in RMB.

Everyone in the world that needs to pass through your strait has to hoard RMB.

For me, isn't that internationalization of the RMB?

It's a win-win situation.

This is what I talked about last week.

The reason this deal fell apart

isn't really about nuclear weapons.

The issue is about nuclear weapons.

They'll eventually be able to develop them,

and you basically can't defend against them.

They can't just destroy your nuclear facilities

at this critical juncture

. Moreover, the US strategy is

to prevent

Iran from even having nuclear power; anything

related to nuclear weapons is off-

limits, right? And

they can't just load a box and turn it into a nuclear bomb,

The joke is that this won't work, right?

Under these circumstances

, people say they absolutely have to fight.

How can they fight?

There must be a problem.

Because we see from here

that from April 11th to April 12th,

the US continued to increase its troop deployment to the Middle East.

So the goal is very clear:

they conscript troops, there's no way to negotiate,

right? Conscripting troops and negotiating

—isn't that a waste of military spending?

The US, with its powerful capital

markets,

clearly knows this. They

say, "If I send in a single troop,

I have to fight.

If I do n't fight, all that transporting supplies

and expedited deployment of soldiers

is a waste of money."

No way, they absolutely have to fight

So, as long as they conscript

troops , the conscription station won't be withdrawn.

Everyone, if you've been following the teacher's live stream,

you should have seen this news.

Actually, everyone should be aware that

as long as they recruit, they can't withdraw.

It's like they're just calling for supplies

; they'll still

fight.

Why? Because with supplies

, they can fight;

without supplies, they won't.

Do you understand what I mean?

So, their air power, including

fighter jets

and attack aircraft,

has already arrived in the Middle East

. Their ground forces,

including the US 82nd Airborne Division,

have added 15 to 2,000 soldiers

, who

will arrive in the next few days. Their

navy,

along with thousands of naval

forces

and a Marine Corps unit, will continue to

arrive. So, we can see from this

that they have airborne

divisions.

Airborne divisions are for taking over islands and

capturing beachheads

; you need paratroopers

, right?

Paratroopers,

not the original kind,

okay, but

the kind that jumps.

You definitely need paratroopers.

So, when they need 1,500 to 2,000 soldiers

to form airborne divisions,

it means they need to bombard their coastlines,

establish fortifications

, and

gain substantial control of the Strait of Hormuz.

This is already... It's understandable

because the reinforcements are of this type. If

you're sending in this type of troop

, you have to prepare for this,

but whether the deployment will be successful

is another matter.

Although Iran currently lacks air power , it

has surface-to-air capabilities.

So, if you

actually

deploy paratroopers,

you might become a sitting duck

for them; your soldiers

might be shot down before they even jump.

There's that kind of risk. His recruiting representative

said

he's determined to fight a decisive battle

and establish a stronghold,

but whether it will succeed is another matter . The

second important thing

his so-called thousands of naval and

army marines

. We talked about

the marines last week; their purpose is

to quickly move around the island. But

the soldiers who follow the navy and are promoted

are simply responsible for three things:

first, mine clearance

; second

escorting; and third,

annihilating any

counter-offensive forces

. This has become a very real

and practical

confrontation involving firearms. The situation

also includes amphibious assault ships

and the first US 11th Marine Expeditionary

Unit.

These things have been continuously being developed and deployed.

So , even

with amphibious assault ships, they

still need to hide on islands and

launch surprise attacks. Anyone who's played Red Alert knows

this means they absolutely have to go and

actually fight.

Adding so many soldiers

adds billions of dollars to the cost

. Because those soldiers are very expensive,

including compensation for the wounded

, treatment,

fuel costs, and

equipment costs—all very expensive.

So, this deployment

involves billions of dollars in war preparations.

You can't just go for a day, right

? It's a six-month deployment.

Whether you can come back alive is another matter.

So, the probability of the US

reaching an agreement on recruitment

is extremely low .

Even if it happens, it's just a delaying tactic.

But, as

we mentioned in a previous short video,

before the nuclear missiles,

someone sabotaged them.

If this hadn't happened,

it would have given the US military more time.

Who was that person

? That person was Lake Nataya and

Lake Ataya.

They desperately pushed towards Lebanon... If Lebanon attacks

Hezbollah, Lebanon will be unhappy, and

Iran will be unhappy too.

It's like saying, "You told me

you wanted to negotiate,

but then you

attacked my ally.

Are you kidding me

?" You're attacking Hezbollah

to disarm them.

I just want to ask

, on what grounds

does Hezbollah

have to disarm them? Hezbollah is on someone else's territory, so what does it have to do

with you?

This situation becomes

like Peng Yue's situation:

negotiating

while simultaneously

attacking .

Peng Yue is standing with the hegemon,

and who is

the hegemon now? The hegemon is the United States.

, of course, this cannot be negotiated,

and a settlement is impossible. War is

inevitable.

This war, as we know,

will begin in April

It must be of a certain scale

; otherwise

, this issue cannot be resolved.

Why? Because

the United States must reach

a conclusion to the war

before the end of this month

. For example,

according to the US War Rights Act of 1973,

the US must,

within 40 days of the start of war... The report must be

submitted to Congress,

and the military operation must be ended within 60 days.

So,

under these circumstances,

he must

finalize this policy

before May 1st.

Is it possible to finalize the policy before May 1st

? Currently, it's impossible

unless the current lawsuit goes wrong and

he gets arrested.

Otherwise,

if you want to end the war by May 1st,

today is April 12th.

You think you can end the war within 18 days

? The real brakes have been removed, right?

You've even taken off his underwear.

Do you think that's possible?

It's a bit difficult

So,

under the current circumstances,

this is a very important moment

for the United States, and

it's crucial to do it well.

This is a very important time.

So, regarding

the authorization from Congress,

is it possible that they will continue to authorize

Trump to continue the war

? Logically speaking,

the Republicans currently control both the House and Senate.

So,

if he can

arrest all

the Republican members of both houses...

Basically, he can still continue to authorize Trump,

but the problem is

that Trump's approval rating in the US and China is only 37%.

With only 37%,

how do you

keep these members of Congress from defecting?

That's a question mark.

Because basically,

the biggest force supporting Trump is Magath.

The problem is that Magath's current attitude is

ambiguous.

It's not that all Magath supports

Trump's activities

; some

still believe

that whatever Trump does

for the good of America. This includes

many Chinese Americans who think this way. They believe

that

whatever Trump does

must be right

least 60-65% of

Magath's followers are unwavering believers .

They have completely

dedicated their bodies and souls to Trump.

Even if his wife slept with Trump,

he would still think Trump had a reason. Do you

understand, teacher?

It's even a kind of faith

. When

you offer sacrifices

in faith, that's not a problem,

okay? This is not a problem

because in their world,

God is one.

This is the kind of situation they have. However

, the other 35% have this concern

because they include capitalists,

farmers

, and traders.

These people have doubts

because under the "America First" principle,

the war must be fought for the US.

But clearly,

this war with Iran is

being fought for Israel

. Israel dragged you into it,

so you fought

. If it wasn't for Israel

, did you initially state that your purpose in sending troops

was to gain

control of

the Strait of Hormuz, thus

preventing us from having

the right to transport personnel

? That's unreasonable,

because the Strait of Hormuz's biggest impact is on Asia,

not the US.

The US produces oil,

so if you don't take action

, oil prices won't rise

. If you go to open

the Strait of Hormuz, it creates a paradox with the fact

that the US is the largest oil producer.

The American people can't

agree that

you're fighting for their own good. That makes

the argument invalid; it

's fundamentally invalid .

Therefore, under these circumstances,

neither side needs to

act quickly; they

can't afford to be

slow. The reason isn't whether you

can veto the $2 veto. Even if you veto

it, remember that

the US Constitution

grants the president the power to veto.

That is, if you veto me,

I can veto your veto.

Do you understand, teacher?

In the US, the president can veto,

referring to the veto power of both houses of Congress.

Generally speaking, it's not possible

, but

according to the Constitution,

the president can veto. So

, even if you don't veto it,

you're basically just putting on a show for the people.

So we try our best to stop it,

but it doesn't listen.

Why ?

Because of the various freedoms granted to us by the Constitution

—vetoing, vetoing our rights,

you know? Vetoing, vetoing our rights.

So, even under a double veto,

it can still do this.

But the longer it drags on,

the more detrimental it is

to the election

, especially in November.

Because in many states now

, if a Democrat runs, they're basically

guaranteed a win.

The current economic indicators

and various achievements

are worse than during Biden's term.

So, you're saying this bloody purge

can hypnotize

all

, even most, Americans,

saying you're now... Give me another chance

to continue my term as a Senator for two more months.

Given the nature of the US,

that's incredibly difficult. A

victory

for them is

practically

impossible.

Trump is now on a sinking

ship; his chances of winning are extremely slim.

So, as I told you all

at the beginning of the war,

this war by Trump

ensures Iran's inevitable defeat

because they are the ones being attacked.

Iran has no room to win;

many places have been bombed

—Arabiya, its facilities,

civilians, energy institutions,

everything has been destroyed.

Therefore, it's impossible for them to win

, in any form.

They can only win legally.

But in reality,

they are the ones getting beaten up, right? They're

bruised and battered,

you tell me they won?

You can say that

, but in reality, they still lost.

That's very clear.

Israel can't win

either . That's also obvious.

The fiercer Israel is fighting now,

the worse

it will be later. We'll discuss

that later. So, what chance does the US have of winning

? The US can't win either.

Therefore, the US

cannot win this war.

If you can't even defeat the Taliban,

don't fight them anymore.

The political situation in a country like Iran

is such that the Taliban was a guerrilla

organization

, right? The real regime in Afghanistan

was supported by the US.

You can't even defeat

the Taliban

from the perspective of national capabilities, let

alone a legitimate government

with

a unified system.

And you've stripped them naked,

confiscated their underwear,

and now you're

telling me you have a way to defeat them?

That's extremely difficult,

very difficult.

Some

people say, "Teacher, what you're saying isn't right,

right?

Wasn't the Venezuelan president kidnapped?"

Yes,

but you could kidnap Javier.

But why didn't you kidnap

him

Because if you did, you'd probably be killed on the spot.

But Venezuela is different.

Venezuela also sold out its own people.

Can you repeat that question

? No,

the Venezuelan president...

The reason Bolsonaro

was able to be kidnapped was because of the betrayal of those around him.

And the biggest reason for this betrayal was that

the US promised to pay the traitors the money they demanded,

but he didn't.

It's like saying, "You're a notorious figure, aren't you?

Who will kidnap your president for you

? Give them money

and they'll send you to America to live a good life.

People will know

that Bolsonaro is

gone forever, right?

You won't even pay them. You don't

care about their lives.

When the Taliban attacked the

capital of Afghanistan,

how many

of those who followed the US to the Afghan government

had already been executed

and their families exterminated?

Could you help them?

There wasn't even one in ten who actually went as promised to the US,

right?

It's a one-in-a-hundred chance.

" So, if this

were to happen in Iran,

if they hadn't kidnapped the Venezuelan president,

perhaps they would still have a chance.

But if they had kidnapped

the Venezuelan president ... So, in your place,

is it possible for you to kidnap Khamenei?

It's practically impossible. Aside from killing him,

you have virtually no chance.

If someone helps the US

and kidnaps Khamenei

, you'll truly experience a complete disaster.

Don't even mention nine legs,

it's almost certain

death. In the current situation,

the US is in a dilemma.

I want victory

, but I can only achieve a mental victory.

In reality, the US has already spent too much here. It

's like buying stocks,

right? I invested 1 million,

and now I'm about to lose everything

. So I have to average down, right? This averaging

down involves adding margin , averaging down again,

averaging

down again, averaging down again,

again, averaging down again, but now you're telling me

you should just cut your losses and sell everything?

I think, if I still have borrowed money,

why

wouldn't I average down?

Because the stock market will eventually reverse.

Can I explain a lot of macroeconomic theories to you

? You mentioned many, many situations

, so as long as I average down enough, if the price

rises in the future , I can make hundreds or thousands of times

my initial investment and recoup my losses

. So,

you keep selling houses and cars,

keep pushing the price up

, right? That's gambling with a gambler's mentality.

You've fallen into a gambler's mentality.

You think, "As long as I hold on, with

more chips, I can

make back my principal and profits." Isn't

that what most people around you who play the stock market think ? When they

lose, they all want to play the "break even" game.

There aren't many people who can actually make tens of thousands

unless they invest very little like me. If

I invest very little

and lose, I just lose, right? I

don't dare let my wife find out, right?

So I can only swallow my pride

and accept the loss.

But if you've spent millions

, betting your entire fortune,

would you be willing to leave?

Casinos exploit this human nature

, the stock market exploits this human nature,

and futures markets exploit this human nature.

As long as you have this human nature,

you can't leave the gambling table.

And Trump has now brought himself to the gambling table

. The US has also gambled away its resources

because these funds are borrowed at exorbitant interest rates.

The US thinks, "As long as I can borrow at these high rates,

I haven't lost.

" The lenders, willing to keep giving me money

, let me gamble,

and as long as I don't lose,

I can continue.

And who are these lenders?

. US Treasury bonds are essentially high-interest loans.

Because of the massive debt

, you'll never be able to repay it in the future.

With such high interest rates,

how can you

possibly repay it? Plus,

the Federal Reserve has already stated

that it won't cut

interest rates; it might even slightly raise them.

Either it will stop at this point

, or it will only slightly increase them.

Under these circumstances,

do you think US Treasury bonds will become more attractive?

Impossible. If Iran successfully charges fees in

the Strait of Hormuz,

and it establishes its own system,

other countries will also say, "

Okay, okay,

as long as you collect the money openly and transparently,

we'll obediently pay you."

Will oil prices rise?

Prices will definitely rise

, right? Because of the Strait of Hormuz,

prices will

skyrocket

for Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. But will it have any impact on China

? Almost no impact on China,

because they signed a low-price agreement,

right? They told me about transit fees,

but they won't let you buy them.

Because during our previous negotiations,

transit fees were never mentioned.

If you want to buy , you have to let me pass directly

through domestic pipelines .

As long as it's flying the Chinese flag,

you don't have to charge me transit fees.

Because China's oil is all state-owned,

there are no private companies, it's

all state-owned.

So,

under these circumstances

, China has no problem

, but the problem is with Japan and South Korea.

And with Japan and South Korea

, and other Asian countries

, there will be problems, right?

Including India,

there will be problems too.

But if there's no problem for China,

then in terms of inflation,

the problem becomes international oil prices. If

international oil prices are problematic

, then the consumption levels

in the US and Europe

will become even more difficult

because there's no room for price increases. It's not

about raising prices to make more money,

but about raising prices because of rising costs.

So when there's no room for price increases

, but you still have to raise prices,

life will become even more difficult.

This is an inevitable situation.

Many people still think that Europe is the same Europe as before,

and the US is the same US as before,

and that not doing well is a personal matter.

I'm telling you honestly

, not doing well is a shared historical karma,

there's no way around it

. I'm not saying that China will definitely be strong;

I won't discuss those nonsensical slogans.

I'm talking about the operation of the entire world.

When

you don't have enough industries

to support your country's development,

you will inevitably weaken.

Plus, all your costs

are provided by others,

so you will definitely be subject to others.

This is unavoidable.

China started the dual circulation strategy very early on.

At the time, I didn't know why they

started the dual circulation strategy so early,

but now...

The dual circulation strategy is really timely;

otherwise, what would they do? They 'd have to

rely on imports from others.

What if they

stopped supplying everything

? Oil and gas are no longer a problem

for them.

Plus, China reopened coal mines three years ago

and prevented all coal mine owners from reviving.

They have coal, oil, electricity

, and nuclear power .

They also have their own super-large

small generators,

right? They can circulate their own resources. Plus, they

don't impose tariffs on

exports. Others operate on a business model:

if you don't have an equivalent tariff,

I'll offer you a lower tariff,

and we can negotiate an FTA.

Under these circumstances,

where do you think the economy will

move in history ?

You need to understand that

the global economy

is constantly shifting sides.

For example, we know about the British Industrial Revolution

, so the British pound

was once the world's monetary center.

Now, let me ask you a second question:

before the pound, wasn't there a world currency?

What was there

? The Dutch guilder.

The Netherlands was the center of world trade.

Many young people

, perhaps under 40,

don't know that the Netherlands was the former center of world trade,

right? The Dutch,

don't they

? They have the Dutch Flying

Dutchman,

and

many people jokingly refer to the Dutch as... Do you know

about the Dutch? They have the Dutch guilder

, not the tulip mania.

They were a global trading and monetary center

, their industrial strength

was that strong.

After the war with England,

the Dutch

navy was incredibly weak

because they used all their resources

for trade.

At that time, there were 20,000 trading ships

sailing the world, right?

5,000 were British, and

15,000 were Dutch.

Netherlands had such a large trading capacity

, but they didn't use the money for military equipment; they

used it all for trade.

When they fought England, they were easily defeated

because England had a

large fleet, right?

They were completely overwhelmed.

, the Netherlands

handed over global pricing power to England.

Why did England later seize it

? Because of the Industrial Revolution.

Where did the Industrial Revolution come from

? It came

from the resurgence of its manufacturing industry,

right?

And then, of course, you know about Blumbauer and Lyndon Bleu

. After the system,

everything became American

because the US was the center of industry.

After the war, Britain couldn't win,

so the US became the world's industrial center.

They had Houston, Detroit

, and so on,

constantly building

various aerospace,

automotive

, and other industrial industries.

With money,

they realized they wanted a better life,

they capitalized. After capitalization

they

outsourced these manufacturing to Taiwan,

Japan,

Singapore

, Malaysia,

Thailand,

Indonesia, and Vietnam.

After

the Vietnam War, they outsourced to Vietnam again.

After all these things were distributed

, the US entered the service industry.

So,

will they have problems outsourcing

their own industries

? No problem.

Why? Because they have the biggest fist.

Their military industry is very strong,

right? Britain has the invincible Armada,

but the US doesn't just have an invincible Armada; it's

invincible on land, sea, and air,

right? With invincible armed forces

... Tell me,

if you misbehave,

I'll fucking beat you up.

For example, if Japan misbehaves,

I'll fucking beat you up.

Then I'll give you the Plaza Accord,

and you still won't dare utter a sound,

right? What about

the Philippines and

Thailand? I'll fucking destroy

your country, I'll drain your entire financial

and banking system,

and you

still won't dare utter a sound,

right? Now I'm setting up a minimum tariff

station to kill

China. Do you dare to fart?

People don't fart at you; they

just defecate right at your doorstep.

If you're so capable, try defecate the same size as me!

Why is this happening?

Because China's military strength

is comparable to that of the United States.

I'm saying this

in reality.

In terms of capabilities,

they are evenly matched.

country

thinks that if China and the United States go to war,

who will definitely win?

There's no way around it

; if China

attacks the US

, the US will definitely win.

But can the US even penetrate China?

No,

they can't.

China is attacking Taiwan now, and the US can't save it

either

It's just a situation where everyone sacrifices themselves

. The US

is willing to accept

that if China wants to

attack

anyone, the US can't

stop it . But the problem is, with

such a powerful military,

what can you do when

China is back-to-back with Russia

? Should you ask Russia to attack China?

Russia isn't stupid

. They're already struggling to fight Ukraine, and

helping Iran

feels somewhat beyond their capabilities. And if

they're still fighting China,

why not just go

directly to Kuangyin Island?

The world needs to see

if they have the capacity to support this,

to see

if they have the economic strength.

So many people say this is the beginning

of imitation, the beginning

beginning of imitation

. I say, don't

think about imitation,

because everyone is so poor, so incredibly

their bones are pounding.

How can you afford to fight

a war? Without money,

the US could have participated in World War II;

it was there to clean up the mess,

right?

It wasn't that it used its entire national strength to fight World War II

; it was because its

economy had become stagnant.

He needed World War II to revitalize the situation,

so the United States

became the world's largest creditor nation

, right? Originally, Britain was the largest creditor nation,

but now it became a debtor nation.

Why? Because Britain owed money to the United States, and

because the Allied Powers owed money to the United States,

right? So

now, the United States itself

no longer had the industrial strength

to compete, and it relied on imports for other things

, so the bargaining power for many things wasn't as high.

How do we understand

why he waged these wars?

Because he had already left the gamble

. A person who leaves the gamble won't easily leave

unless they've lost everything

, then they have no choice but to go home and raise money;

otherwise, the war wouldn't have been won.

Okay,

this is my opinion, okay?

Let's see if anyone has any questions

. Uh, even though I've been standing here for a while,

I think this might be something Mazu already told me

Mazu, Mazu, Mazu, they love the people,

Mazu loves the people, they don't love politics, okay?

Don't ask

Mazu about politics. Mazu

loves the people , he is a compassionate god

. Mazu, this Mazu goddess,

she is truly a goddess of great love.

I can only say she is a goddess of great love.

She only loves the people. Oh,

she is a goddess of the common people

. She can be high above

, but she is willing to care for the common people.

So this matter is rather special .

It's wrong for

people to interfere, okay?

Good people don't live long,

but evil people live for a thousand years

. Hahaha,

this year the stock market and international stock market will crash.

There is a probability of that.

, but don't try to short it from the beginning, okay?

Now is not the right time, is it?

Now is the best time to get gold, okay?

The Olympic Games are even more exaggerated in terms of aesthetics

, hahaha, really,

really interesting.

Sometimes it's like this,

, he becomes what he thinks,

this belief.

I'm telling you,

politics is crazy.

Don't try to wake him up,

that's impossible.

Because if you make him feel

that what you think now is wrong,

it's the same as denying himself.

No one

's own psychological defenses

can deny themselves,

okay? "I examine myself three times a day

" just means that only I know myself.

I can deny myself,

but if you tell me it's wrong

and I accept

it, it's the same as

accepting that my beliefs for the first half of my life were wrong.

I'm telling you, this is very difficult

, very difficult

, extremely difficult .

You need to know that changing course

is very difficult. Yi Zhe said, "

am actually Chinese

, but we should calm down.

We are a third race.

We need to calmly look at this situation.

It's impossible that he thinks he is white.

I'm just trapped in the body of a yellow person

, but my spirit is white,

right?

I was born into the wrong place.

Now, through immigration

, I have corrected myself.

Actually, my body is wrong.

It's like being put in the wrong gender.

God played a joke on me to prove

whether I am really white enough.

I'm telling you,

there are many people like this.

They've seen a lot

of things

and met a lot of people.

Their belief

is that they are great white people.

They have this kind of thinking.

For example, everyone knows about donuts.

Lincoln thought that way.

He thought he was an American citizen.

He was an executor ..."

He wants to lead the American people to revolution, right

When people are mentally deranged,

these things are impossible to achieve,

okay?

Israel is really dangerous

, that's right,

okay?

Oh, Israeli Prime Minister

, we'll talk about

Khamenei becoming a martyr

, being beaten,

that 's right,

you have to become a saint,

that's impossible.

Oh, Trump is 80 years old

, how about that? Oh,

I haven't seen it

, right? That's a good reminder,

I'll take a look these two days, okay?

Our planet's heart is mainly

observing China's prices overseas.

The world's price levels are mismatched

, prices are

not compatible, and

it's

unsustainable. That 's right, oh,

it's believed that the Chinese currency is starting to appreciate,

and that this appreciation will

offset the friction between China and foreign economies.

That's also true of

the US.

Oh, this

, this model exists. They're

buying arms from the US at exorbitant prices

to monitor Taiwan;

they can't afford the weapons.

When you're cooking hotpot,

people demand protection money,

so you have to pay

it, right? Sometimes, honestly,

you can't blame the government entirely.

Why did they have to buy arms from the US

? Could they not buy them?

So many people are waiting for this money, right?

Could they refuse to buy it?

This money is divided among many people

, not just the US.

There are huge kickbacks in this arms deal.

Don't talk

like that. What if I get wiped out someday

? I'm just saying that many cogs in this machine

need this money , right? Like, look at "The World" first.

The Warlords, right? Nicolas Cage wasn't talking about

this

gun

Even

the

red screw cap,

stock, bullets

, and leather all have their price.

I didn't say anything about Taiwanese people talking about buybacks

; that's not what I meant.

I meant that arms dealers,

many things, every

part of it has its price.

So, it's not simply about arms purchases

, but about who wants the arms purchase

and who needs the name.

Okay,

I'll stop here. Those who understand, understand.

I'm not saying

our country has kickbacks; there

's definitely no

such thing

. Under the great leadership of the Party

, according to our Taiwan

and our national heroes,

the beacon of the world,

there's definitely no such thing.

All our procurement personnel are aboveboard

; there's no way such corruption or embezzlement could happen.

What about the Lafayette sword?

The situation of bandits

during the Kuomintang era

, okay, that was

the Kuomintang faction, okay

, uh, is that okay? Okay,

you understand

? Hahaha,

is that it?

I can't say anything more.

Finally, let's talk about Israel.

Actually, the Israel issue

is linked to the United States

. Why?

Because Israel's ammunition

consumption is enormous

, but the United States' ammunition consumption is also enormous.

And now, if the United States

wants to replenish

its Tomahawk missiles

or other munitions

to fight this war

, it's difficult

because its annual production cannot reach

1,000 missiles per year.

There's no way to do that right now.

In the first week of the war,

they spent $1,000 on

a single missile,

like a cruise missile

. But

the problem is that the

annual stockpile of cruise missiles isn't production

; the stockpile is only 200-300.

They've already used 1,000 in a month.

How many more can be used

is debatable.

For example, South Korea's THAAD was removed.

Under many circumstances

, it becomes

... If the deployment rate of weapons in other places decreases,

other allies will feel uneasy.

This is because

you promised to place these weapons here to protect me,

but you're using them to fight your own wars

. If my allies turn against

me, what the hell?

That won't do,

you know?

But

can they replenish

them?

Although Trump keeps saying he'll spend money to provide

a national defense force

, the reality is that making weapons

requires many things,

including semiconductors and rare earth elements.

So, it's not something

you can necessarily do just because you have money. "Even

a skilled cook can't cook without rice"

doesn't mean you actually don't have rice;

sometimes it means you lack...

You can't have rice if you

don't have a pot,

you know what I mean?

So many things can't be

done immediately. What

you can do immediately,

unrestricted by rare earth elements and chips,

especially mature chips,

are all conventional weapons.

If you only have conventional weapons,

your deterrent power on the Middle East battlefield

isn't enough.

You need cutting-edge weapons.

Cutting-edge weapons inevitably use chips and rare earth elements

; you can't avoid them.

You might not see it mentioned in the news

, but you need to understand

that as a missile,

you can't do without chips

or rare earth elements

. So what do you do?

You made the F-35... F-22 and F-15 fighter jets,

can they function without rare earth elements? They

all require rare

earth elements. Are rare earth elements so readily available now?

They're everywhere

, but can you actually use them?

This is another point of contention

because they're not pure

enough.

If they're not pure enough, then some things are impure and unusable,

you know?

Impurities are unusable

. So this is a source of much controversy.

Therefore, we're currently negotiating while simultaneously fighting, and

fighting while negotiating

The US warships

passed

through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday or today

. Under these circumstances,

did Iran

attack them

? No.

Why? Because

Iran is a paper tiger?

No, it's because

when the US warships passed through the Strait of Hormuz,

negotiations were still ongoing.

Vance hadn't made an announcement yet. Even

after the announcement, we hadn't reached a consensus

, but we were still negotiating.

You can warn me

, you can insult me

, but you can't attack me

because we're in negotiations

. The US warships passed through this...

The first thing the warship

does is, " Go ahead

and hit me, you

idiot !

Come on, hit me!

" The second direction

is to declare to the American people that

if my warships go past

Iran, they wo n't dare

utter a single

word. So, does that mean I've won

So, it has that kind of declaration effect.

But whether this can continue

indefinitely

is uncertain.

Because if negotiations break down now, what if

they

actually attack you?

One or two words and they really will attack. If

they don't attack,

but the Houthis attack, what can you do

? The Houthis aren't government forces, right?

You could say the National Revolutionary Guard,

but they are government forces, right?

The Houthis and the government

could launch a few missiles at you, and

you'd be left to scavenge in the desert. If you can't

even counter missiles, how come you don't need to report to your mother?

Well, that's hard to say. Okay,

because the strait is too short,

if you want to defend against it,

you have to spend a lot of money.

Will you have to move forward and backward again?

I think this is somewhat controversial. It

also includes the fact that

Iran has laid a lot of mines

on the Strait of Hormuz

. With so many mines,

you either have to clear the mines,

or you shouldn't go there.

You can only go through their designated shipping routes

because there are mines

outside the designated shipping routes.

If you go there on your own,

thinking you can't catch

them, you can speed up

and they'll explode. You know,

speeding up will cause them to explode.

That won't work either.

is controlled in this area.

Iran has to guide you.

The place they guide

you to... In areas without mines or

proper navigation, if

you dare to go there, you're basically doomed.

They have ways to open routes for you

without paying, and that's not an option.

So, this creates a

tense situation.

For a time,

the US couldn't clear the mines smoothly.

Now we know

that when the US itself can't clear the mines smoothly

and doesn't have the necessary ammunition,

the situation becomes very critical

for Iran

and Israel.

Israel is currently

still dealing

with Iran and Lebanon...

They can continue fighting,

but their

air defense capability is basically less than 20%

, or even less than

30%.

This

means that if the enemy fires

10 shots, you can't stop 7 of them;

you can only defend

against

the three most critical ones . However, if the enemy consistently and accurately

hits only the same target,

you still have no way to defend against them

because they will definitely hit.

So, under the current circumstances

, they basically have no air defense weapons.

Their only option is to use offense

to stop offense.

Let's put it simply:

was the Great Sun Lake reckless

? Yes, it was .

But if they stop now

... While others are catching their breath,

another

missile might be found in the desert.

So you need to understand this:

if he stops and

finds a missile in the desert

, he still can't defend

because his David Investment,

his so-called Iron Dome

, whether rockets or missiles,

can't compensate.

Since the US isn't

diverting its own military resources

, the probability of it being able to help

Israel is so low

, there's no way around it.

So,

since his units and THAAD are

almost exhausted

, if you don't attack later,

someone else will.

You say he has to attack

, but how long can it last?

In reality, it's difficult to say how long he can fight.

What can he achieve? The hope is that one day

he will really turn the tables.

Now, Yahoo! is also at the gambling table,

becoming a Texas Hold'em player.

I'm trapped in this triangular

situation

, unable to escape.

Although two out of the three

are already working together

to destroy the other

, right?

The problem is,

who knows that Iran has two more hands behind it?

A hand reaches out, and hey,

everyone has so many heads!

A hand reaches out again, and hey

, another chip! So, it's

about Iran

itself. Where does its raw material come from?

It's self-evident.

Because as long as it bypasses the dollar system

, it can continuously obtain these things

, whether rare earths

, chips

, or any military weapons.

He has two inexplicable hands

reaching into his own pockets

to put things in yours,

which is understandable.

He can continuously obtain things

, so two people are linked at a three-person poker table, and

the two have formed an alliance. But

Iran's backers are too strong,

so it's difficult for him to win,

but not fighting is also

not an option. If he doesn't fight, he

can only win.

Do you all understand what I mean?

He hopes

to cripple Lebanon, defeat

Syria, and ideally, frighten Iran

under the current circumstances.

This way,

he can gain more buffer zones

. But you only have the ability to advance forward.

Today, we want to take the land. After winning

the war, holding onto it

is a difficult task.

Even if you win,

you must have a system

in place for the new territory

, you must have defenses,

and you must have supplies

. Only then can you maintain

control of the land you've occupied.

That's why, even after Ukraine's counter-offensive,

Russia can still advance again

once it retreats.

It's because after you occupy it,

you don't have time to

set up your defenses.

You can only acquire it through struggle.

This is a choice made through struggle,

and this place will always be a place of struggle.

The problem is that

even though Israel has now

taken 1/10 of Lebanon and

the Gaza Strip, and

has taken it today...

Whether he retaliates

or not is fine; he can just

keep launching rockets

at those settlers every day.

What can you do

? Can you keep attacking?

Do you have the money?

Do you have the strength?

So the problem is

that Israel can't not attack,

and it can't attack either.

They're tied to the table;

they have no choice.

So does Israel have this so-called

braking mechanism?

Yes, it does. We know that on April 12th

, probably today or tomorrow,

he will be in court to see if he has committed corruption.

can

see

from world history

that whenever a president

is accused of corruption or treason,

it's basically... Basically, this

means you're being given a dignified way out.

Why? Because in this situation,

you have no other option

but assassination.

You're out of options.

For example, let's take

Kennedy as

a simple case.

The people supported him

, but the powerful didn't.

, you could only be assassinated.

The people who assassinated you were also assassinated.

Then, within 10 years,

everyone involved and aware of the information was assassinated,

right? You could only accept assassination

go to jail.

Otherwise, there's nowhere to protect

yourself. So ,

to give him a

dignified way out, you're accused of corruption. You step down, imprison

for three to five years, and then

you get out with your life. Where you spend

your US dollars

is your business

, but if he wants to cut his losses,

he can only use legal means

to impeach you and remove

you from office.

You may curse and complain,

but putting you in jail

is the safest

option for him. Jail is the best way to protect this kind of person

because he'll have enemies everywhere he goes.

So, spend three to five years in jail living

a life of luxury,

and then

get parole or released.

Go to some American

island or some small island to live out your days

as a billionaire.

Is that a problem?

Then there's no problem.

Do you all understand what I mean?

So, under these circumstances,

we can look at the case of the corruption case in Taihu Lake

, which has just begun to be prosecuted.

It's very simple.

It's about time you stepped down.

If you don't,

things will get out of hand.

You have to step down

We've

already found a way for you to do it

. You either step down

gracefully,

or we'll make sure you do

n't. There are nine ways to make

you step down gracefully. So it depends on whether their

martial arts champion wants to make this master step down gracefully.

This is a very big issue.

Okay,

sorry,

we've gone over time

. We won't talk about Saturday's events

anymore

. Sorry, I only have five minutes

to confirm things with everyone today

. Okay, does anyone have any questions

? However, there's no way to get this

. China won't sell it, so

there's nothing we can do.

The Baishazhou Wharf directly raised the price to 450,000 passengers,

right? Yeah,

take this away,

and they'll come to save Taiwan.

The real way to save Taiwan

is because right now in China,

there's a blizzard in the Northeast

, and heavy rain

in the Central region, like Wuhan.

There are many things going on.

This year,

there's too much

water, which is a problem.

Of course, we hope that our Mazu

will protect our land of Taiwan and that we

can have good weather and abundant harvests.

That's all we can hope for. Is this how

it works?

Put him in jail,

and then an Iranian missile will find him.

That won't happen. Okay,

haha,

it probably won't happen.

I told you,

the day I was really arrested and locked up,

Iran wouldn't attack him

because there's no point in beating a drowning dog.

Beating him up

is the same as

someone else attacking Hami.

The best way is to keep him in the computer

and pretend he doesn't exist.

Politics is very realistic.

Beating him to death is meaningless.

The most foolish thing is

to find Khamenei.

If you know where he is

, you shouldn't attack him.

You can warn him,

but you can't attack him.

If you attack him

, what will other opposition forces say?

There's no way.

Let me tell you

something very simple

. Many people say

, "What if our great Taiwan Star is

beheaded ?"

I'm telling you

, they won't do something so stupid.

They have the ability

, but they won't do something so stupid.

If you really kill him,

you think it will have the same result as Khamenei?

It will.

From the Khamenei incident

, many national leaders

feel relieved

because the probability of beheading is low now.

That damn Solano can only be kidnapped,

but they can't be beheaded

. Beheading turns into a holy war

? What kind of holy war

is this?

Stop playing around . Deification ?

If you go with a deified person,

whatever wrong they did before,

you'll immediately be deified, right

? Was Chiang Kai-shek a good person?

No need to deify him after his death.

Was Sun Yat-sen a good person?

He's a lolicon, right

? He's deified after death,

isn't that

right? A lot of things become deified after death,

right? There's nothing we can do about it. Okay

, okay, everyone,

thank you for watching today.

Finally, let's mention that

our day

has begun.

This is the 2005

Five Directions Gathering of Heavenly Light

, uh, the Divination and Fortune-telling Ceremony.

On the day of the Heavenly Light,

our deity instructed us

to divine the fortunes of everyone.

You can start registering now

. That 's okay.

The teacher will

post it on WeChat Moments

tomorrow.

I'll also send an email

to those who attended the Qingming Dharma Assembly before

, so you can receive it too.

All our systems will be more complete. Like, you can do

all the inquiries

and modifications yourself after registering,

okay?

The teacher has completed the functions

. If you need to modify the number of tickets you registered for

, or if you made a mistake today

and don't want to pay this way

, you can change

it in your member backend. You

don't need to contact the teacher;

you can change it yourself.

Because the teacher wrote this system, and

I wrote it myself,

I can do whatever I want. It

's also much faster than before;

there's no need to keep spinning. He

said he could run away, so he could run away

because there weren't many pictures left,

haha. I removed all the pictures,

just text, okay?

He just tripped and passed, okay

? Also,

our Qiankunmen Grand Classroom,

which includes Bazi

(Four Pillars of Destiny), Tong Si Class,

and our Feng Shui class

, already has our

teaching assistant,

Xue Zhengjun.

The Feng Shui part

might still need some strengthening

, but for the other parts,

if you have any questions,

if you find that Xue

Zhengjun's answer

isn't working, or

if you ask him for an answer

and he doesn't respond,

and you feel it's not good,

you can contact the teacher below,

and then Teacher Liu can educate him,

okay? Thank you everyone for watching today.

I'm Teacher Chen.

Will Israel be able to stand up again

when we meet next time ?

Uh, let's add something at the end, okay?

Will Israel be able to stand up

Well, basically

, according to current economic theory,

it won't be able to recover in less than ten years

after the war ends .

Basically,

because it needs to rebuild its houses

and restore investor confidence.

If you only rebuild the houses,

just the foundation, it

only takes two years.

Two years is enough for it to rebuild

because it's small now. It didn't lose

much from the bombing

, just a few houses and a few cars. That's

not much, right?

That can be repaired

. But,

you need to get these external funds to

agree to invest in Israel.

If they agree to invest, they won't be attacked.

People will be afraid that it won't last 10 years.

He can't recover to his pre-war level,

I can tell you all that, okay?

Thank you for watching today,

I'm Teacher Chen

, see you next time.

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Transcription YouTube :鄭麗文回台!是賣台還是惠台?

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鄭麗文回台!是賣台還是惠台?