The analysis explores whether Stannis Baratheon could have won the Battle of the Blackwater and taken the Iron Throne, concluding that while theoretically possible through earlier action or alliance, his character and cautious nature made such a victory unlikely, and perhaps ultimately beneficial for his true destiny.
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could Stannis have won the Battle of the
Blackwater and taken the Iron Throne it
was a close-run thing so was there
anything he could have done to
Prevail hi everyone this is Robert
welcome to indeep geek on this channel
we dive deep into Georg ARA Martin's
World Of Ice And Fire as well as other
great fantasy worlds like the Lord of
the Rings if you're new here
welcome the battle of the Blackwater was
the largest and most pivotal battle in
the war of the five Kings and the
culmination of many plot in a Clash of
Kings it left Joffrey and the Lannisters
technically still house Baratheon in
power in King's Landing and Stannis
licking his wounds back on Dragonstone
but was there anything Stannis could
have done to change the outcome well
let's start by briefly outlining what
actually happened before talking about
what Stannis could have done differently
because it was a close-run thing Stannis
set off from Storm's end with a sizable
Fleet of perhaps 200 ships with his army
split between their and a Vanguard that
set across land and arrived a few days
earlier than the fleet on the opposite
south side of the river Blackwater to
King's Landing other than a few
skirmishes both sides held their fire
until stannis's main Fleet arrived and
confident of its superiority and numbers
headed straight up the river the plan
was to drop off the parts of stannis's
army aboard the fleet on the city side
of the river then Engage The much
smaller Lannister Navy who were further
Upstream once the river was Secure the
rest of stannis's forces on the far side
of the river could cross safely that was
the plan of course the reality was that
Wildfire destroyed most of both navies
and a newly created chain across the
mouth of the river prevented any Escape
however some of stannis's forces did
managed to land and started attacking
the king's gate and the sheer number of
boats in the river estery formed a
makeshift wooden bridge of sorts
allowing still more of stannis's troops
to cross over at which point we should
note that the Defenders of King's
Landing were not exactly battle hardened
veterans there were a few Lannister
soldiers and some called up from nearby
garrisons but most of the force were
either cell swords of dubious loyalty or
gold cloaks the city watch two-thirds of
whom were very recent recruits this is
important because it means they needed
strong leadership but very early in the
battle the Lannister leadership became
absent sandor lean member of the King's
Guard and fearsome fighter quit the
battlefield Ty acting hand of the king
led a sauty outside the city walls and
didn't return King Joffrey himself left
the battlements for the safety of the
red keep meanwhile the number of
stannis's troops outside the king's gate
kept on increasing morale Among The
Defenders on the walls imploded with
hundreds fleeing their posts things got
so bad that lanel Lannister reported to
Cersei that the battle was
lost which is when Tywin Lannister
turned up with a combined LAN a Tyrell
Army hugely outnumbering stannis's
forces and attacked it was all Stannis
could do to extract some of his army
onto his remaining Fleet and head back
to Dragonstone
defeated so what could Stannis have done
differently well perhaps his Fleet could
have held back rather than run straight
into the Wildfire trap set by Tyrion
that would have been a start and perhaps
he could have brought melisandra with
him as she wanted he was persuaded not
to because had she been there and he'd
won people would have put the victory
down to her presence rather than him
it's less clear exactly what she would
have done if she were there perhaps
provide some kind of protection against
the Wildfire or conjure another Shadow
baby to kill Tyrion both could have
turned the tide of the battle or perhaps
she could have foreseen the Wildfire or
the advances of the Lannister Tyrell
Army in the Flames so they could change
tactics all she says on the subject
rather enigmatically later is that had I
been with you you your battle would have
had a different ending but his grace was
surrounded by unbelievers and his pride
proved stronger than his faith his
punishment was Grievous but he has
learned from his
mistake the fact is that even if Stannis
had got enough troops onto the King's
Landing side of the river quickly enough
broken through the king's gate swiftly
and moved on to attack the red keep with
a minimum of losses Tywin and the
tyrells would have arrived that same day
with depending on which report you
listen to perhaps 70,000 men to take on
stannis's 20,000 or so no unless
melisandra was able to do something very
impressive in battle Stannis was always
set to be trapped between a massively
larger Army and the river the city walls
or the red keep itself when you think
about it stannis's best chance of taking
King's Landing was to attack earlier
much earlier before Tywin and Mace
Tyrell forged their
Alliance when you read back through the
early chapters of a Clash of Kings you
can see that this is the big concern in
King's Landing Stannis may not have had
many men at that point but King's
Landing was very badly defended the
chain the Wildfire the extra gold cloaks
the defensive Siege Weaponry the
soldiers from stokeworth and rosby all
these came later Tywin and the main bulk
of the Lannister Army had not come back
to defend King's Landing because of the
threat from the northern Army so what if
Stannis had allied with r
Rob showed himself to be an able General
winning several battles and even
managing to tempt Tywin and his army out
of his stronghold at Haron Hall and out
to the West leaving the route to King's
Landing open and if Stannis had Allied
himself early with Rob he would
potentially have had the North and the
riverlands on his side as well as his
own forces which might have given even
renley and some of his supporters pause
for thought Rob could very probably have
kept Tywin away from King's Landing
giving Stannis a free run at it before
Tyrion had time to organize the defenses
a bit yes that could have worked so why
didn't he do it well after Rob was made
King in the north it was a definite no
no for Stannis as he says to Cat Stark I
am the rightful King and your son no
less a traitor than my brother here his
day will come as well this is Stannis
very much in his only subjects and
enemies mode he wouldn't Ally himself
with someone who also claimed kingship
over some of the Seven Kingdoms but
there were perhaps three months between
news of Robert's death and Rob being
made King and at no point during that
period did Stannis forly claim the Crown
reach out to anyone outside the
stormlands or show his hand at all in
fact it's nearly 5 months before he
sends that letter proclaiming Joffrey a
bastard and himself the rightful King
it's a major point of discussion during
books 1 and two what was he doing all
that time if he believed Joffrey was
illegitimate why didn't he claim the
crown straight away I think the answers
to this come in the prologue to a Clash
of Kings where we finally see Stannis he
is absent for all of book one and one of
the first things he did was to send out
Davos to gauge support for himself among
the storm Lords the answer came back
that broadly other than the few who owed
Allegiance directly to Dragonstone they
were instead siding with renley he spent
some time weighing up melisandre's
claims and Powers and he hesitated to
press his claim because he had no
absolute proof that Joffrey wasn't
Robert's son as we see in this exchange with
with
Davos you have no proof of this incest
no more than you did a year ago there's
proof of aort at Storm's end Robert's
bastard the one he fathered on my
wedding night in the very bed they'd
made up for me and my bride Delena was a
Florent and a maiden when he took her so
Robert acknowledged the babe
edric storm they call him he is said to
be the very image of my brother if men
were to see him and then look again at
Joffrey and tommen they could not help
but wonder I would
think yet how are men to see him if he
is at Storm's end Stannis drummed his
fingers on the painted table it is a
difficulty one of
many in summary Stannis was cautious
whereas renley was rash Stannis wanted
the proof to back up his claim whereas
renley was content to Simply claim the
crown by force by the time Stannis had
decided on a course of action heading to
Storm's end at melisandre's urging his
chance of an early decisive strike at
King's Landing was gone and his list of
potential allies grew thin it does
appear that there's an element here of
everyone else declaring themselves as
king forcing him to do it even without
to the proof he craved all of which is
very understandable as we know stannis's character
character
but I suppose that's the point it took
Stannis around a year from fleeing
King's Landing to declaring himself
because that's what Stannis is like if
renley had been in that situation I
suspect that things would have moved a
lot quicker which leads us to the
conclusion that although Stannis could
theoretically have taken King's Landing
by forging an alliance with Rob or
acting more decisively when he didn't
have the proof to back up his claim
before King's landing's defenses were
improved he as a character would never
have done those things needed and there
is one other element to this whereas
melisandra never outright says that
stannis's defeat was a part of her plans
she does say that Stannis being king is
not what she views as His Highest
calling that is to be aora high born
again that Stannis has learned his
lesson to trust her and that ultimately
the battle of the Blackwater does not
affect stannis's fate could Stannis have
won others could have in his position
but not him because of who he is not
whether he was a good enough General and
if he had one would he have been so
willing to trust melisandra and head
north with his army again probably not
he would probably have dug himself into
King's Landing awaiting attacks from
other Pretenders Stannis is such a rich
character in the story because we know
how he will react and here Perhaps it is
a good thing that he didn't win because
otherwise he may not have headed north
and saved John and the Night's Watch and
the story would have been very
different if you'd like more videos
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