The crypto industry is at a pivotal inflection point, moving from a phase of regulatory uncertainty and narrative-driven valuation towards broader adoption, institutional investment, and tangible utility, driven by a more favorable political climate and technological advancements.
Mind Map
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well welcome both of you thank you very
much for coming here um the topic that
we're going to talk about
is what's the latest and greatest in
crypto and and where we're going and
obviously we are phenomenally thankful
for you both being here um you guys
basically need no introduction but for
the live stream audience out there maybe
a 30 second each would be a great great
place to start um thanks so yeah my
background macro investor in 2011 got
interested in Bitcoin and decided to
launch um the first crypto funds in
2013 uh we now manage about 5 billion
across the spectrum of super liquid all
the way to Venture
equity and Mike and I and a third
partner really got it all going together
that's true I'm Dan's uh
shorter uh and more folically challenged
cousin uh we went to college together we
worked at Goldman Sachs together we
lived in Tokyo together
uh he then left to do hedge fund and I
was a sales coverage for a while um and
then we uh were both doing macro hedge funds
funds
together there's a whole story here uh
and we we we got together on crypto and
and I give him a lot of credit
because when we I called him and said
hey what do you think about this thing
Bitcoin and he took a couple weeks to
look into it and he was like just hyper
bullish and was willing to put a ton of
money into it and I was busy at the time
running a hitch fund I was like well if
he's putting that much in I have to put
at least that much in and so our
original $93 Bitcoin slug was was sized
by Dan uh and so and it's funny when you
think about the fortunes that have been
created in in crypto it's not just entry
point it's how much you put in at that
entry point and so that's my my thank
you uh Galaxy is a crypto Investment
Bank we have banking we have a sales and
trading business with staking we're tra
trading onchain and offchain we have an
asset management business we've run a lot
lot
of uh risk on the firm's balance sheet
that's slowly going to shift as more of
that goes into the asset management
business uh we have an infrastructure
business uh and you know we got a big
Bitcoin mining business which is being
transformed into an AI Data Center and
so hope to get public we've been waiting
four and a half years there's a new SEC
and so uh I think you're going to see a
whole host of companies uh come May or
June uh listing on the New York Stock
Exchange or NASDAQ um that's it there we
go totally 30 seconds thanks Mike so
let's just jump right into it right so
2024 super interesting year obviously we
have a Chang in administration Bitcoin
Resurgence how are we thinking about the
broad view of where we're at now 2025
February we're here in New York things
seem to be changing very quick quickly things
things
are new again shall we say how are you
guys thinking about the status quo and
where we're at right now and where we're
going in the immediate
term I'll take a quick crack and then
Dan can correct me um listen there was
four years in the desert where this
industry felt uh abused and the relief of
of
non-abuse uh the relief of of feeling
like you're not a criminal or a drug
dealer uh when you go to see a bank but
you're actually in an industry that
could be you know part of the the the
future of both finance and the consumer
space uh feels good and so you've seen a
a deep breath and an excitement uh I was
at the inauguration uh and the crypto
ball had an amazing energy and a couple
of Bankers came to me they're like we
don't get a banker ball uh it really
felt like you know this was the moment
for crypto it was the hottest ticket in
DC that night and the next night at the
vice president's ball were there were
only about 300 people I walked in and I
saw Zuckerberg and Peter teal and Steve
schwarzman and Leon black and all the
big financers there must have been 20
crypto CEOs that's out of 300 people we
were wildly over represented and and so
it all felt great of course the Trump
coin didn't help that that that Spirit
um but it does feel great um what does
that mean for us listen Bitcoin has a
store of value it's carved out a lane it
is becoming Global it might or not be on
the government's balance sheet in six
months I actually think it will I think
there's people are trying to figure out
how to to do it gracefully um and so I
don't think bitcoin's going away uh
stable coins you had stable coin
legislation uh by T Senator Hagerty
announced yesterday I think that's
strategic for the US and it's going to
be the growth of this industry for a
while we see payments all abroad and
we're investing in payments from our
Venture business um that's going to grow
right now stable coins are like the 13th
largest owner of treasuries I will be
shocked if by the time the Trump
Administration ends it's not a top three
owner of treasuries um there's a couple
other lanes right why a lot of us got
into crypto if you weren't a Bitcoin
maximalist was this idea of web 3 of
private property on the internet of
decentralizing systems and of cutting
out the
middleman a lot of activity in that
space But no real applications yet
oncale and I think the next four years
really has to be about you know having
zero knowledge proofs show up on your
iPhone when you use your ID or some
applications that that get people
because again we're still at the point
where valuation and crypto is narrative
right bitcoin's narrative is digital
gold uh and so The Narrative at one
point has to be met with some utility
otherwise we just have a casino and
things go up and down and because it's
so easy to issue tokens now you have the
almost an infinite Supply response and
so while you're
seeing Bitcoin ethereum salana xrp even
the the other than salana the top five
tokens were issued way back because they
had time to build their communities and
those communities
are really really vibrant uh the biggest
surprise that I've seen in this market
was how
resilient communities of what I thought
were e tokens you know were
uh it would have you would have I would
have never thought xrp would have been
the best performing token after the
inauguration but it was the xrp Army is
vibrant and strong and I was even
talking to Brad Garling he said I'm not
even sure where it comes from like you
know where this passion but it's passion
and if you think about what these this
I'm getting to the point I promise what
what we learned in crypto and the older
you are Dan and I are I'm 60 he's
probably close uh the more difficult
this is to understand is that Community
became a part of the investment you know uh
uh
algorithm and we didn't really pay
attention enough of that early on and I
used to joke about the tattoos the
Bitcoin tattoos you know very few people
have Microsoft tattoos but thousands and
thousands tens of thousands have Bitcoin
tattoos right there's something more
than the association with the stock well
that same idea in Bitcoin exists in xrp
it exists in Celestia for a smaller way
uh and so this idea of community as a
investing input we're now seeing you
know you could say Tesla has always had
this crazy valuation because of this IDE
of the Tesla community
and the jury is out is that a permanent
function of how we value things around
the world right certainly the younger
generation is driven towards memes it's
driven towards this idea of mic investing
investing
uh it feels like it is then you have a
day like Monday where Things Fall 30%
you're like oh what was I thinking and I
think that psychology up and down is
going to still be part of our uh Dynamic
until we get the utility so that's kind
of how seeing the world awesome I
actually do think we're at a huge
inflection point and so when Mike and I
first started um I I I was conceiving of
it as like such an important piece of
really the final piece of the protocol
puzzle that's the internet and people
had no exposure to it it was time to get
invested to it I really feel like we're
at kind of a similar point right now
we've been so repressed by uh the fear
of Regulation or the lack of of of
certainty I think everyone in our
industry kind of has Stockholm syndrome
right now like we're so used to being
afraid of the government and of like not
trying to do anything and you know I've
been on Boards of big exchanges it's you
know so scary to list anything and that
the the rebels just threw the gates open
and there's sun beaming in and we're all
just still sitting there like too afraid
to be excited that it's it's a new
a new era the Market's only up 25% or
something since the election I think it
should have doubled right so I'm so
bullish because the regulation in the US
was kind of the last kind of scary thing
or bad thing about crypto it's going to
get more clarity it's going to be more
positive huge change that not enough
people talk about is not the president
and every single person in his cabinet
the m just list that are all massively
Pro crypto it's not just that it's not
just um Congress lips is there used to
be this huge group of people in Congress
that were anti- crypto and I always
thought who's the no voter on crypto
right like there's no one out there that
that's negative and Mike and I actually
uh met with vice president Harris's
campaign manager who's her
brother-in-law about three weeks before
the election and she still had not used
the word blockchain in the entire
election and I just said hey there's 50
million Americans
that own crypto so many of them are so
passionate they're single issue voters
they don't really care about any other
issue they just want the pro crypto
candidate and this election's going to
come down to you know a couple percent
here or there you might as well say
blockchain is probably going to help
right and a couple days later she
finally did
and I I think when all the phds are
written this election did turn on
President Trump going pro crypto in May
and the big change is there were 58
contested elections in Congress that the
pro crypto uh political action
committees competed in 54 of the anti-
crypto people left Congress nobody's
going to say anything bad about crypto
in Congress again and I think that is
massive and so I'm as bullish as ever
and I think that the question inflection
points is it was kind of scary for like
a public pension plan to invest in
crypto two or three years ago right got
the SEC suing coinbase and ripple labs
and all these great companies so that's
the big change is it's going to flip
from you know very scary so probably
really positive uh and so 2025 I think
it's going to be one of the most
interesting years excellent yeah and I
think um I think this stuff tells nicely
into where we're going next which is
sort of questions about institutional
adoption and really regulation so a
frequent argument you hear is in order
to get to the next step and to push you
know Bitcoin to be doubled instead of up
25% we really need to see large pools of
capital AKA institutions really come
into the space and really large
financial institutions adopt this are we
close to that are we getting there soon
how are we thinking about you think
Black Rock went all in last year that I
think the single most important thing
pre-election in Bitcoin in the last five
years was Larry think being orange
pilled uh because you know he just
represents institutional investors you
know whatever1 14 trillion dollar or
whatever they they managed now
everyone's getting engaged and so I
think you're going to see one after the
other the pensions get in I've got to
get I was I was actually had lunch with
the head of one of the biggest Sovereign
wealth funds in the world about two
weeks after the election he was like we
didn't bone Bitcoin but now we're going
to like when the US buys it we have to I
he was that that specific and so he was
cutting his first $500 million check uh
to dip his toe in and so I think you're
going to see The Sovereign wealth funds
load up um you're going to see Pension
funds uh and it's going to start with
Bitcoin because that one makes sense to
them digital gold uh it's inter the same
Journey that most individual crypto
people take is what institutions take
they start with Bitcoin they want to
understand what web 3 is and ethereum or
salana or any of the other chains and
then they say wait a minute where else
is those at work um I think the other
thing to to watch is like when we
started pitching people there was this
criticism h blockchain's a solution in
search of a problem right you heard that
all the time and why haven't we had
decentralized ticketing or decentralized
ride share or
decentralized uh social media succeed
right we haven't there's two reasons one
blockchains weren't fast enough safe
enough and decentralized enough uh and
now with the advents of these level twos
on ethereum or salana you're getting
there and
two the regulatory environment was so
unclear that non- Maniacs non- kind of
crypto dgen or people that didn't have a
lot to lose had the confidence to go
build on top of these blockchains right
if you worried that the SEC is going to
give you a Wells notice by launching
your what you think is a utility token
for photo sharing or you name it uh you
don't do it and so what I'm hoping is
the next 24 months we start seeing
bigger Capital uh projects built on top
of of you know I and I'm I'm somewhat
indifferent to what that web of block
space looks like right if it's if it's
Linea uh or one of the others ethereum
L2 or salana or uh in some ways that
doesn't matter in the long run to almost
everyone who uses this it's the
back of the TV right and we need to have
the front of the TV work and I think
that's what we have to look forward to
in the next few
years yeah um I was on CNBC recently at
the end of last year and they were like
you know hey Bitcoin double this year
it's a bubble and I'm like hey first
we've been running a Bitcoin fund for 11
years and it's on average doubled every
year so that's not even news and
secondly how can you have a bubble that nobody
nobody
owns the median holding of an
Institutional Investor in blockchain is
zero like literally zero the majority of
Institutions have no exposure to
blockchain it's not a bubble we haven't
even started and like Mike we're getting
so many inbound phone calls from
institutions that like two or three
years ago you you had no interest in
blockchain there's 500 trillion of kind
of real assets out there if you will
crypto's 2
trillion you know it just seems like if
a tiny fraction of the real world assets
migrate to uh crypto which I think they
will in 2025 I think that's the story is
these checks that Mike were talking
about I think they're actually starting
to happen in in massive scale and
that'll keep driving our growth in our industry
industry
yeah the other thing to remember uh is
whenever it feels great like the
inauguration felt great and then the
Trump coin came out and that might have
been a short-term High uh you got to be
a little careful and whenever feels
really shitty it's probably time to buy and
and
so could we go back to 880,000 in
Bitcoin and 150,000 in salon and 22,000
in ethereum of course we could and that
doesn't invalidate this space at all
it's quite frankly that's the buying
opportunity uh people get a little bit
too long it takes a while for
institutions to get in right they're not
they're not retail and so I think it's
really important to kind of think of SEC
second half of this year uh to really
see the
flows um and again is there is there a
narrative that could change negatively
not many the only one that really could
was be if
miraculously Scott Bessant and Elon and
Donald Trump you know got our budget
deficit from 7% down to 3% we're bu
right that would change the the Bitcoin
narrative some it wouldn't change the
crypto narrative but it would change the
Bitcoin narrative uh I actually talked
to bessent about it I was like dude if
you're successful I'm gonna lit punch
you in the jaw uh and he said no no my
my my real goal is to get gold price
down but bitcoin price should go up and
I was laughing he said well you're right
my job is to balance the budget or get
closer to it and be a good fiscal
Steward uh but I also think we're going
to have so much adoption in crypto that
even if we do that it's not going to
stop this wave of adoption because we've
as Dan said we've this space
for for four years and so uh do I think
Scott Besson and Elon Musk and Donald
Trump are going to be successful
spending less and and increasing tax
revenue I don't I hope they do I'll say
a prayer for them but I don't I think
that we are kind of almost past the
point and0 return and and how bad our
finances are uh which makes Bitcoin
really an appealing asset for any
portfol folio but that's the thing you
got to watch Elon earlier this week said
that he wanted to see treasury run on a
blockchain right I mean he was like you
like I'm diving into this and he's like
you talking about injecting you know
sort of the auditability and
authenticity and uh you know simply just
using a blockchain as a ledger
underneath the
treasury yeah so what's interesting is
again crypto is not one word right
Bitcoin is digital gold putting Audible
your budget on a blockchain is a
brilliant ID and that would probably be
on ethereum or Salon or you gotta you
pick your poison it's got to be on a
blockchain that the government trusts um
and so we're
still no one's going to snap a finger
right there's an irony blockchains are
trust machines right they were built to
distribute trust because we didn't trust
the man but you still have to teach
people to trust the trust machine right
van Jones ones came up to me and he'd
got a hundred million Grant from Jeff
Bezos and he said I want to do
blockchainbased voting and I was like I
got a great idea start with American
Idol right something that doesn't isn't
that important unless you're an idol fan
um because even if Dan could prove to
statistically blockchainbased voting is
safe and you can't change the votes the
population doesn't believe that and so
we're GNA have to ease people into this
overnight that's good enough yeah I
totally agree yeah yeah I think you know
certainly you know what we've been
saying here very much Dove tales with
that you know so I think we have a lot
of conversations a lot of those
conversations very frequently are we
would do more of this if we thought we
could and very much this this new
outlook that you guys are sharing I
think is is is very very promising
um as we look forward a little bit
beyond into later 2025 and Beyond you
know certainly we're very Pro token
ation that's you know something we we
harp on all day long here um how do we
see that coming
from you know the what we're thinking in
terms of the breakouts for like later on
and Beyond is it tokenization is it
really this continued education on the
very you know a lot of the people in
this room are very familiar with like
how blockchain works and what Bitcoin is
and stuff like that are we still very
much in that education phase or do at
some point do we start breaking out of
that into
The Next Step the next era I'll take
that I think what you're doing
tokenizing is so important because the
current systems really are pretty broken
especially for the global Community
maybe not for Americans but you know for
people in the developing world you know
that don't have any access to finance
tokenization is an incredible tool and
allowing people to buy say for example
treasuries anywhere on Earth with a
smartphone is just really amazing and
the the thing that I think it's so funny
about how much better blockchain is than
the old school Alternatives is best
described in the treasury market so some
of you might know you you can buy
treasuries directly from the government
via treasury direct and I used to do
that a bunch um the government is so
bureaucratic and so behind that it
literally takes you a year to move your
90-day T bill out of Treasury direct to
maril Lynch they are so behind
processing payments that it takes an
entire year to move it
out you know with AO any tokenized thing
you just hit it on your smartphone and
10 seconds later it's happened massive
improvement over what we're doing and so
tokenization is huge hugely important
and I would actually say I think that's
a big part of why president Trump
changed uh to being pro crypto stable
coins which is you know kind of a subset
of tokenization is putting our
unsustainable and I agree with Mike
totally unsustainable debt
onto a Smartphone and sending it to the
furthest corners of the earth and Trump
is you know a genius at things like this
he realized that's an amazingly good
thing is we're pumping out two trillion
of debt you need more buyers right
because the current you know buying
Community is saturated but if you can
get you know kids in Indonesia or
whatever to be able to use a smartphone
to buy a stable coin that helps fund the
US deficit so I think tokenization both
hugely important in it of itself and big
for why the current Administration is
flipped to being pro crypto yeah since
Dan and I have been selling Bitcoin
since 2013 we've got a lot of similar
stories because we share them uh I used
to be fascinated by the fact that there
are more $100 bills in pillowcases
overseas than there are $1 bills in
circulation right traditionally people
in regimes or in areas that were
unstable wanted to store their wealth in
$100 bills in pillowcases or you know
not pillowcase under your mattress and
so shifting that and and the genius of
being able to tokenize a treasury uh to
in essence a stable coin that pays
interest is all these people who are
barely making ends meet to start with uh
are going to get that carry now it cost
the FED right there's about $2 trillion
doll in circulation at 4% that's
whatever 80 80 billion a year I think I
did the math right uh that the FED is
going to lose at one point if there's no
cash right and if if if right now stable
coin acrew to the issuer that just can't
last forever it just makes no sense um
and so I think you'll see that regime
shift um it's a great segue into the
fact that a lot
of the real world asset idea a lot of
what web 3 will look like is plumbing
and it's collateral management it's not
sexy it's not as much narrative as
actually plumbing and you know I I I
laugh I I've been the CEO for a while
I'm a Storyteller Dan's a very good
Storyteller at one point he at least was
an engineer at College this this
industry is going to have a lot more
Engineers sitting in seats like this and
they're going to be talking to not
necessarily investor groups but industry
groups of say how are we really going to
rebuild this infrastructure to make it
more efficient because what blockchain
really will do is I mean think about
trying to transfer a share and the panta
uh Venture fund right you got to go it's
paperwork at one point it should be
tokenized and I can sell my my share or
buy more because I like Dan so much and
so we're going to have a revolution in
plumbing that hasn't happened yet but is
going to happen and I think uh it might
sound less sexy but that's where going
to be a lot of this things happens and
even like when you think about stable
coins the very first meeting we had with
a big CEO was with the Jeff
Jeff
imlt chairman of GE this is
200 probably 15 and me Dan and two other
people vitalic vitalic yeah vitalic was
16 at the time or 17 he showed up late
we go to dinner with the head of GE
biggest company in the world at the time
the head of GE Capital and their CFO
three of them four of us uh one
facilitator and uh metallic showed up 20
minutes late and I was like dude you
can't be late to dinner with the you
know we were adults already and pretty
established and we got there an hour and
a half early I was like you know he's
like well my flight was late I was like
you you're flying the night before you
know um but we were talking internet of
things that was 200 whatever 15 there's
been no crypto internet of
things that was one of the big things
you're gonna have an jet engine and it's
going to run more
efficiently uh at times and you're going
to do micro payments back to to the you
know to the company and it's run
inefficiently you're going to give them
to the buyer and all of that idea was
percolating at that dinner it hasn't
happened yet it's gonna happen right
we're doing a stable coin in Europe
regulated stable coin bofin rules with
DWS and flow Traders and Deutsche Bank
took us around to talked to some of the
big Industrials and they were like as
soon as there's a regulated stable coin
we're in and so there'll be again more
plumbing and more use case and as those
use cases happen you'll see more volumes
on these these uh blockchains uh and I
think what you'll see is this shift from
just narrative to utility because at one
point you can't have 55 l1s The
Narrative all sounds the same and and
it's why quite
frankly The Originals have kept their
value better than the newbies uh because
the originals were able to distribute
much wider earlier because there wasn't
as much competition and I think uh
Community will still be a big part of
valuation but you're going to see
utility have to be part of it I think I
think that's a great place to leave it
thank you you gotta get him I talk to
much well I just I just want to do one
little code on Mike's thing the reason
I'm so passionate about investing in
blockchain is you know Mike and I have
traded all kinds of crazy things for 40
years and some's like dollar Yen's not
even moved it's the same place as been
the whole time we've been talking about
it blockchain is the most inevitable
trade I have ever seen all these things
will happen it will disrupt all of these
and even the iot thing we were early you
know that was a little early but dpin is
happening and it's like the new version
of that and so that's why I think
everybody in this room should have some
exposure to blockchain because it might
not happen in the you know time frame
that we're estimating but it is so
inevitable so it's definitely worth
having inevitable it's a great place to
leave it Mike Dan thank you so much for
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