This content outlines a football betting strategy focused on identifying and exploiting value in the over/under market by comparing exchange odds with sportsbook odds, aiming for consistent long-term profitability rather than guaranteed wins on every bet.
Mind Map
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want to see a football betting strategy that wins repeatedly check this out
so i track the results on this super simple betting strategy over the space of 30 days in
excel i'm gonna reveal all the bets the secret behind how the strategy works why it's a repeat
winner and how it secures a substantial profit on under over's football betting market it relies on
a couple of basic indicators that anyone can find each day as you'll see in just a second but first
i need to explain why it worked it's pointless showing you the indicators without understanding
and it's way more useful than giving out football betting tips as you'll be able to identify these
opportunities for yourself sometimes the situation evolves and prices change whilst looking for them
so doing it this way gives you maximum value if you agree smash the subscribe button for more
in the future because if you like betting on the unders and overs market this is the best strategy
that you'll ever see here are the results for the first 10 days of using this football betting
strategy look you can see it doesn't guarantee a winner on every bet although i repeatedly win
more than i lose whilst using it there were 16 bets to level 50 pound stakes with only 7 of
them winning 9 loss producing a strike rate of 43.75 getting average odds of 2.29 on each bet
would have resulted in break even except we didn't get odds representing the strike rate
we got average odds of 2.66 over those 16 bets leaving a profit of 112 pounds and 50 pence at day
10. now don't panic if that went over your head it's super simple and i'm going to explain further
but the point i'm making here is the selections were a higher price than they should have been
mathematically if i keep doing this it means that i win more than i lose in the long run and that's
a fact nobody can predict the future so there's no point trying this strategy works because it
focuses on repeatedly getting value odds which means i'm guaranteed to win it's the same reason
that betting companies make millions every week because they can't predict the future either it's
just that this strategy ensures that the value proposition is the other way around on my side
to illustrate if i reduce the average odds of my 10 days results to a price below the 2.29 average
the final result would have been a loss and that's how a sports book makes a profit so let me explain
exactly how the strategy works and how i'm picking these bets then i'll show you the best places
where the opportunities arise and why so take a look at my screen here showing argentinian match
odds on the left we have the odds of betfair's exchange exchanges are the best guide to true
price in real time there's not a huge amount of money in the market but you can see that over 2.5
goals odds are between 2.36 and 2.6 now there's a gap in the price spread but the market is telling
us that it believes the true odds are somewhere between the two prices for reference the midpoint
between those two prices is 2.48 now if we compare that to the sportsbook odds on the right hand side
of the screen bearing in mind it doesn't include commission on bets you'll see that the sportsbook
is providing some value here the corresponding over 2.5 goals bet is currently priced at 2.55
on the sportsbook higher than the midpoint of 2.48 on the exchange the reason i'm highlighting
this is because it's a clear indicator that the sportsbooks bet is overpriced in this instance
betting on it means we get a bigger price than the marketplace deems the bet is worth it's a value
pick by repeatedly betting it will win eventually even if we encounter a string of losing bets it's
really important that we remember this and believe in the maths because the strategy doesn't work
if we start chasing losses taking a smaller price or getting emotional about short-term variance in
results distribution in results can be erratic at the best of times but long-term probability brings
them into the line looking at the results by day 20 you can see that this is true there'd been
33 bets in total with 18 losers yielding a strike rate of 45.45 equivalent to odds of 2.2 on average
meaning if the bet had been priced at 2.2 i would have broken even but here's the really important
bit i want you to understand here by using this strategy the average odds were actually 2.63
significantly higher than they should have been which is why the results stand a profit of 300
pounds and 50 pence and that's great but where's the best situations to find value like this on
a daily basis and also what did the results look like by day 30 now you've probably noticed there
haven't been any premier league matches amongst the results here and there's a very good reason
for this i've specifically targeted low quality football here because this is where the strategy
is most effective sportsbooks take millions of bets on football every day of the week and most
of them are on the popular matches such as those in the premier league which means they spend a lot
more time and money monitoring and changing their odds to make sure they have a good margin built
into the prices that they offer it's opposite of what we're looking to do here with this strategy
in effect they're making sure that odds are bad value and extremely hard to beat in the majority
of cases this strategy works repeatedly on unders better markets on the low quality stuff because
it's an additional market where the pricing isn't so sharp it's less likely that we'll
find value in the market odds or on the premier league although it does happen from time to time
now the time i look for these bets is important too typically it's 6 to 12 hours before the match
starts that the value is available finding them as the market liquidity is forming is best setting up
automated alerts can help although i'm not going to go through that in this video but before we go
through the final results for the full 30 days there's something very important you need to
know about this football betting strategy because there's a downside you can see it on my account
here now it's a shock for some recreational bettors that bookies don't allow repeat winning
for long despite advertising the opportunity to win they're sore losers when the little guy
repeatedly beats them they don't play fair bet fair of stake restricted my account for winning
now they'll only let me state between 10 pence and 2 pound 42 on this bet they do it to anyone
that consistently beaten them on their sports but it's proof that the strategy works and they know
it although it is frustrating as it limits the amount of money that can be made if you want to
win repeatedly with this football betting strategy into the future you'll need to use multiple sports
books or require extra accounts so let's see how i did over the 30 days and calculate the value
margin for this strategy if you're getting value please subscribe down below so over the course of
50 bets in 30 days 27 of my over under bets lost 23 over one leaving a total strike rate of 46
there were one to three bets per day the price and time of the bet is logged in line with the betfair
sportsbook you can see the corresponding over and under bet and its final result to the right of the
spreadsheet given the ratio of winners to losers it means the average betting odds would have had
need to be 2.17 to break even however the average odds we got were actually 2.637 meaning there was
a margin of 0.467 on our side on average nearly half a price point of value is big when it's a
polarizer market where there are only two outcomes like this to level 50 pound stakes this football
betting strategy yielded a profit of 534 pounds 50 over 30 days which isn't a huge result but it's
extremely reliable unlike football accumulators as i explained here in this video if you've ever
placed an accumulated bet you just have to see it thanks for watching i'll see you next time
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