Australia is projected to experience significant population growth over the next decade, driven primarily by migration, which will place immense pressure on its housing supply, particularly in major metropolitan areas. This imbalance between demand and supply is expected to underpin long-term property value growth, despite potential short-term market fluctuations.
Mind Map
انقر للتوسيع
انقر لاستعراض خريطة الذهن التفاعلية الكاملة
5 million people are coming to Australia
in the next 10 years. But don't we
already have a housing crisis? A housing
crisis? A housing crisis? But where are
they all going to go
>> if it reaches its highest prediction?
Another 1.1 million people.
>> Yeah. Wow. Together with Dawn Fuhi,
property investor and founder of Future
Proof Property Advisory, [music] we rank
every state in Australia in terms of
population growth, helping us understand
more about where long-term performance
could sit.
>> There's so many growth hubs around
Brisbane as well. There's a lot of
building going on.
>> And also, we might not be set for strong
price pressure.
>> They have a net housing surplus of 6,541 homes.
homes.
>> How much? All wrapped in an easy to
watch. I just want you to say how many
Irish people there were again, Don. >> 33.
>> 33.
>> Data field.
>> Their shortfall for housing is 48,737.
>> Episode every serious long-term property
investor in Australia can't afford to miss.
miss.
>> But it's the same as all these 18.6 six
year cycle cookers that are like the
market's going to correct or fall off a
cliff. From what I'm seeing in this
if you've been wanting to learn more
about where all of this population
growth is really focused to, which you
might be surprised where a lot of it's
going and where a lot of it's not going.
You are going to enjoy this episode. My
name is Todd Sloan. This is the Pizza
and Property Podcast. Let's get straight
into this chat with Dawn Fuy. Dawn Fuh
here, you ready to talk about a
population explosion?
>> That sounds violent, Todd.
>> Depending on who you speak to, but um a
lot of people are coming to a country in
what was it 5 million in 10 years?
>> So like the whole of New Zealand just
moving here,
>> just on the plane, it's coming over.
That's a lot. At the end of the day, as
far as like global rankings and
populations are concerned, I understand
Australia is kind of like a country town
on the greater scheme of things. But for
us, five million people is quite a lot.
And the flavor of this episode today is
you've done a lot of research into where
a lot of these people are potentially
going as far as the states are
concerned. Where are they going that's
going to have potentially more of a
shortfall of housing? One even on the
list, a surplus. I wasn't prepared for
that when you and I were chatting about
this before.
>> Neither was I.
>> That's going to be a really interesting
one to to uncover, but we're going to be
pulling it apart piece by piece, state
by state, ranking it as we go along for
the pressure. But there's a lot to this
one. And I wanted to ask you as always,
what do you want to set the stage with
before we start getting into all of the
detail, Don? Never look at population
growth in isolation as a metric for
housing growth because often with
population growth uh expected
governments will you know start building
growth corridors and have building
approvals for housing in these areas
that are going to expect population
growth. But
>> we've just uncovered some really
interesting stuff when we've unpacked
all of this data and what it could
potentially mean if they meet the
targets or if they don't. Can you expand
a little bit on why not to use this in
isolation? Because to me, this is a very
helpful tool for a lot of people that
are in investing. But if you're a little
bit fresher, why is it important not to
use this in isolation?
>> Because if there is enough supply built
to meet incoming demand, there's not
going to be enough market pressure to
result in housing growth. And that's
very like crude and a basic way to put it.
it.
>> Makes sense though. It's the logic
behind it really, just in a simple way. >> Correct.
>> Correct.
>> Yeah. Got it. So, what state do you want
to start with? Because I know we're
going to be going through the the
population by each state. We're going to
be talking about the housing supply
shortfall in that state. Also, the
growth corridors, building approvals,
etc., etc. Where are we starting?
>> Let's head to the Wild West.
>> The Wild West. Okay, cool.
>> The gift that keeps on giving. Such a
great state.
>> Everyone just keeps saying it's going to
stop and then it just keeps going.
>> I don't think it will. Not by these, not
by these numbers. But let's unpack it,
though. So, Western Australia, the
current population of Western Australia
is 2.8 million. Pretty like, you know,
about the same size as Ireland,
>> is it?
>> Yeah. Ireland is around 3.5 million with
about 300 million Irish people worldwide.
worldwide.
>> There you go.
>> I'm only joking. I don't know if
[laughter] there's 300 million Irish
people worldwide, but
>> I don't 3 million then. I missed.
>> No. So on the island of Ireland there's
like 3.3 million people but worldwide
you could meet an Irish person in a
desert underwater Mount Everest I assume
>> I just want you to say how many Irish
people there were again >> 33.
>> 33.
>> Sorry I've got to stop doing that. No
doub is
>> okay so
>> Western Australia like significant
growth in the next 10 years projections
if it reaches it its highest projection
according to ABS another 1.1 million people
people
>> okay that's massive because we're only
talking about 5 million people in the
next 10 years I say only like now all of
a sudden it's not very many but that's
that's what is that 20 something%
>> yeah percentage-wise Australia are
having a significant amount of people
right and this is Western Australia as
whole, not just Perth.
>> Let's be honest though, there's not a
like I know there's other towns outside
of Perth, but Perth like if you got
>> Don't be offending people, Todd.
>> No, but you know what I mean. Like you
go to Brisbane, okay, there's Brisbane,
but then then you've also got
Townsville, you've got Canes, you've got
to like there's a lot of other big
population places or reasonable size
population places. There's not like 50
other towns in WA that all have
populations of hundreds of thousands.
But my point of saying this is to me
that's really showing that a lot of that
funnel must be headed to Perth. Not all
of it but a majority of it.
>> And I get the reasoning. So if you look
at like lifestyle factor, you know, the
the amount of uh money people can can
make there. There's there's a lot to
like about WA. It's just the elephant in
the room is at what point does it become
unaffordable for the local population
there? And also the other thing is in
its favor is how much it's it's behind
in its actual housing delivery. So you
know the government in all their wisdom
decided to you know have a target of
building 1.2 million homes over 5 years.
They're nowhere near that. WA last year
alone was 50,000 homes behind which is
significant. and the growth corridors in
uh Perth is, you know, like um Buldivas,
Alchemos, Eigington to the north and the south.
south.
>> The thing though that I think the Perth
government has in its favor is obviously
its healthy budget. So with this
projected population increase, if they
really um you know made a red-hot go of
it, what could slow the per market down
is if the supply meets that demand.
Okay. So, looking at current figures,
>> is that looking likely to happen though? >> No.
>> No.
>> Okay. But
>> and a lot can change in 10 years.
>> Yeah. I I don't think I can
categorically say yes or no or otherwise
because we're then going to focus on,
you know, obviously this is a lot of net
overseas migration, skilled migration,
uh workers that are hopefully going to
come in and build homes. I even like I'm
obviously an immigrant to this country
myself. I remember coming to Australia
how difficult it was to to get a visa.
What I had to say like all my my skills
like everything. It was it was so hard
to get in as a nurse to actually meet
the criteria to get a visa for
Australia. He's getting my haircut the
other day and I actually heard someone
talking about that when I say something
just another dude getting a getting a
trim and he said that he was paying um
was it $20,000 a year or something
obscene to basically just stay in a in
Australia extra taxes, his immigration
papers, his all of his stuff. It was
>> it's big business
>> huge. Yeah. Like and I think he was on
decent money but not that much money. It
was 100 grand a year or something. It's
a big chunky wage to give away. and and
globally Australia is such a lifestyle
destination as well. So I I can't see uh
you know migration slowing down anytime
soon because we need skilled workers as well.
well.
>> This is the interesting thing about it
is so we'll bring this up as a chart on
the screen. If we have zero net overseas
migration in Australia our population
keeps growing growing growing just keeps
humming along 26 27 and then we're up to
what is it? Yeah. 26. Oh, sorry. In
2026, 2027, we stay at about 26 million.
And then by the time we get to 2036, it
actually starts reversing
>> and our population gets lower and lower
and lower, which I'm no economist, and I
actually want to build an episode on
this, but I'm pretty sure there's some
serious negative effects to a country's
economy when its population actually
goes backwards.
>> The GDP is not going to be very happy,
and it's purely based on fertility rates
declining. so much and and it's also
like just average. Um what is it? We're
below replacement rate. Um obviously
I've been very public about it. Bianca
and I had a hell of a time having Fred
and we had to end up flying to to the
Czech Republic to adopt him. Luckily we
got the coolest kid in the whole Czech
Republic. He's the best dude ever. But
so many people would have just given up
and then that that's another couple and
and the amount of forums that Bianca is
still on talking with people that just
aren't having children. So even if it is
like it's either not having them or
sometimes having one like we're probably
going to end up being a onekid
household. I don't know if you guys got
any other plans but then that's below
replacement rate.
>> Correct. And but it's also like the cost
of living for the average family to be
able to have more than more than one
child. So you know the government over
it'll be interesting to see all the
different government policies that are
announced over the next few years to
really combat what's facing the country.
>> You seen what they've done in Hungary?
>> No. Uh, I'm pretty sure it's in Hungary.
If you actually, this was funny. One of
my mates actually went over to Europe
with us the other day um to to find a
wife. He said he's like, "I I want to go
over and find myself a traditional
European girl." Okay. It was just fun to
hang out with him in uh in Prague. Um
but then he ended up meeting this girl
in Poland that was like, "I want to buy
a house, but I need to have kids first."
He's like, "What?" He's like, "Yeah,
yeah." And she said, "I have to have
kids because I can't afford to buy the
house that I want until I have, I think
it was two kids. The more kids you have,
the cheaper the debt becomes. The
government gives you more money for a
home. They're encouraging you. You pay
less in taxes. If you have four kids,
you never pay tax again." I think the
guy does. The girl doesn't know. Never. If
If
>> Fair enough.
>> Yeah. But [laughter]
you do a lot more work. Yeah. But but if
you and I think is if you have two kids,
you don't pay tax for 10 years. There's
all of these like gigantic incentives. I
think it's only a matter of time until
Australia introduces something to that
effect. It's not going to be the exact
same thing, but we Yeah.
>> Like migration is not slowing down, I
think, is the is the main takeaway.
Skilled migration because we need it as
a country. We need construction workers,
healthare workers, every sort of skilled
person you think you you can think of.
So, as far as WA is concerned, they're
not meeting demand now. They're going to
have a huge influx of people, 1.1
projected over the next 10 years moving
to WA.
>> That is like massive.
>> That is so big. It's basically half of
Adelaide moving. [laughter]
Half of Adelaide moving over to Perth.
Well, WA, but like we said, um, what
else do you want to talk about before we
move on to the next state? Is there any
more info around growth corridors? Uh,
anything else? Yeah, like a lot of the
the building that they're looking at
doing is in and around, you know,
Alchemos on that northern end and then
Bald Divas. So, just keep an eye on the
building approvals. But just because
building approvals are there, it doesn't
mean the bills are going to happen
anytime soon either because
>> look, there's there's so much going
against housing growth stalling in
Australia at the moment. Okay, so we've
just had another interest rate rise.
Okay, so the cost of construction has
gone up again. there's a lack of
confidence in the private sector. [clears throat]
[clears throat]
>> All right. So, and then we're having
more migration.
Like I can't see uh you know housing in
Australia correcting anytime soon.
>> I think it's such a fascinating topic.
>> It's because
>> Tell us what you think, Todd. Like what
do you think?
>> Well, no. It's just because like
logically like when you listen to one of
the naysayers, it's like you kind of
make sense. But then you keep listening
deeper and you actually look at just
like the other layer of logic to it. Our
demand keeps increasing. It costs more
and more to build. Like we have more and
more people. We're building less and
less homes. It's like the the logical
layer that they're using is generally
more of an affordability layer. >> Correct.
>> Correct.
>> Which again face value. You you take an
argument like when the average person
can't afford the average house, there's
a problem. Okay. Solid logic. You're
like cool that makes sense. There's a
problem here. But then it's like, okay,
but we're not looking at housing through
a way of traditional financing that we
had of like many, many years ago.
Correct. Like we've now just seen
recently the introduction of 40-year
mortgages. Over in the States, they're
pushing, I think, for 50 or or have
started doing 50-year mortgages. It's
got more to do with access to credit
than anything. >> Correct.
>> Correct.
>> I think to me, what would what would
absolutely like just turn the tap off is
if the banks went, "We're not lending to
you anymore." That'd be a really bad
business model for them because they
make money from lending us money. We
think they're doing Who else makes money
from lending us money?
>> Oh, there there is a huge knock on
affect many industries.
>> The government. So, it's in their best
interests. Think about all the stamp
duty payments they're getting. Go
>> land tax. Like, do you really think the
government is going to let housing fall
off a cliff? Like, you're dreaming. But
it's the same as all these 18.6 cycle
cookers that are like, you know, the
market's going to correct or fall off a
cliff. like it from what I'm seeing in
this data I logically don't understand
how that can happen because remember
Australia is very young in so far as
when it was colonized um comparative to
you look at New York right so everyone's
like I can't afford to buy in New York
yeah you can't afford to buy there
because all of the really wealthy people
own all the buildings and you rent there
so unfortunately as harsh as that sounds
Australia is going to have more and more
people renting
>> 2425. Have a guess how much um stamp
duty was for the country. Whole whole
country. I'll give you a close.
>> It has to be a billion.
>> It's in the billions.
>> It has to be in the billions. So I would
say three billion. >> 4.1.
>> 4.1.
>> So that's big business.
>> They're not just going to wave goodbye
to $4,100 million a year.
>> Why do you think they're talking about
waving stamp duties and 5% grants and
you know they have a they have a deficit
to to fix as well,
>> especially in Victoria, but we'll get to
that later. So yeah, like housing is
housing is big business for a young country.
country.
>> All right. Do [clears throat] you want
to move on to the next state or is there
anything else you wanted to add to this
for anyone that's
>> just the just the wild west. What a
great place. I'm not selling there. Own
a few. Do you own anything in Perth? >> No.
>> No.
>> Awkward. [laughter]
>> I I bought elsewhere. And then by the
time then because then when we started
the business, I disappeared for two
years like not physically like my
magic's [laughter] not that strong but
for the banks. And
>> Yes. Yes. Yes.
>> Yeah. And then within that period I was
kind of like uh I still don't believe
I've missed the boat but I I like to be
an early adopter and I'm not an early
adopter getting into Perth right now. So hence
hence
>> I don't think it will stop growing.
>> So before we move to the next state we
need a ranking for this. If we're
looking at the most potential pressure
as far as low building approvals, growth
corridors, population pressure that's
being number one. Obviously last is
last. I I don't know why I'm explaining
this solid number system.
>> I'm sure the people get like between
first and last. Todd, like these are
very advanced listeners,
>> very helpful for a few people and
annoying for the rest of them. [laughter]
[laughter]
Where is WA ranking?
>> WA is ranking at number three.
>> Number three. Excellent. Okay, so third
third on the list. I promise I'll stop
making fun of your fine.
>> The the third on the list.
>> So, let's move on to the next state.
>> We're heading off the mainland.
>> We're going across that scary sea. Tasmania.
Tasmania.
>> Tasmania. 550,000 people call Tazzy
home. It's a country town.
>> Pretty much, just a really big one.
>> So, in 10 years, the population is
expected to increase by 150,000 people.
>> So, as far as numbers are concerned, not
huge, but considering it's starting off
of a base of 550.
>> Yeah. Percentage wise, it's like, okay.
>> Okay. But when we're comparing it to
builds, how's it actually looking in
terms of that sort of pressure? So,
they're actually ahead on their bills or
they have a net housing surplus of 6,541
homes from the Institute of Public
Affairs and ABS. They're saying that's
because of high levels of interstate
departures and low birth rates.
>> Okay, so a lot of people are moving from Tazzy
Tazzy
>> back to the mainland
>> and just the same deal as what we talked
about before, not having many kids,
>> low birth rates and not as much uh
population growth. I wonder what
immigration's like then as well. Like
it's because don't you get more actually
you might know about this. My dad told
me this years ago that you get more
points when you move to like a smaller
town and that's why lots of people move
to like Kuba Pedi and like proper
regionals for a while and
>> correct like I had to do like fruit
picking to you know for for 3 months
because obviously they can't get people
to work uh you know fruit picking so
it's a great way to get people who want
a visa so you know mango picking
>> uh to to get a visa but yeah I was
really surprised I had to double check
that again because you never hear of a
place being in a in a surplus. And
that's why I think do I think Tazzy will
grow a lot over the next few years?
Absolutely. Because some parts of it are
affordable, but it's in a second surge.
That's why I don't understand why so
many people are so like keen on
investing there. I got like Devonport
maybe like 18 months ago, but then I was
kind of put off it because the houses
were kind of deferred maintenance
assets. They were all on slopes like
this. It just didn't meet my risk
appetite. great place to holiday, but
when you're looking then at areas that
are higher uh you know um not
socioeconomic but a higher kind of a a
score, they were the same kind of entry
price point as Melbourne. So I'm kind of
a this or that person and Tazzy didn't
make sense for my style of investing.
Like what do you reckon?
>> I I always look at Tazzy and I think
that the yields a lot of the time were
slightly better. Not amazingly better,
but a bit better. The price point was a
little bit better. But kind of like you
said at the beginning though a lot of
the time because we're comparing like
we're right now talking about Tazzay.
You don't invest in Tazzy though you
invest in Hobart or Debor like it's
>> so then if you're looking at it that way
really to me you are comparing it more
so to other regional choices.
>> Correct. You can't really compare it to
a major metro. Right.
>> Yeah. Because it's it's not a major metro.
metro.
>> It's a regional market.
>> Yeah. And not to say that's good or bad
but I think that's just more the context
to it.
>> Correct. And like as I said, I think it
will grow. There's obviously a lot of
interest and a lot of people buying
there for the you know 4.85% yields.
It's just not somewhere that met my risk
appetite personally.
>> So talk to me a little bit more about
the growth corridors building like what
what's a little bit more about what's
actually happening in Tazzay because we
already know there's a potential over
supply there of 6,000 which is quite a bit.
bit.
>> 6,500. Yeah. Significant especially when
well I suppose over the next 10 years
like about 15,000 people a year moving
there. So it's not like shooting the
lights up by any means, is it? So uh
there's a bit of building happening
between the in Hobart around Hobart, the
southern and eastern growth fringes. >> Mhm.
>> Mhm.
>> Tazzy just concerns me as a second surge
market. any data we look at with ABS
even from 2021
you know it's all showing that about
three and a half thousand people have
left the state because you know for for
jobs and because it's starting at such a
low population base you imagine that
they would really feel that you know and
it looks like they're saying it's a kind
of a brain drain a lot of young people
leaving for better jobs and better opportunities
opportunities
>> if it's got a population of 500
something thousand 3,000 people are
leaving that what is that literally
like.7% of the population. Maybe not
that much like
>> but it's still a decent amount though
when you're looking at everybody else
growing and and it's like we just come
off the back of 1.1 million people
moving to WA potentially over the next
10 years
>> like and and then if Tazzy you're
basically looking at this going there's
a risk to manage here with population
already kind of exiting the state
>> and fleeing for more fleeing that's
probably a bit drastic [laughter] leaving
leaving
>> for Tasmania
>> it's not war torn but but leaving
because what job opportunities there there's
there's
>> just infrastructure services.
Yeah, it's just I guess it just doesn't
excite me as an area to like invest in
just based on a whole lot of different
factors when I compare it to other
states in Australia. That's all. And
that's an opinion.
>> Um I think there's going to be a few
people um actually giving a bit more
feedback on that opinion. Throw it into
the comments what you think if if this
is the way to go and Tazzy's like, "No,
no, no. There's something big huge that
you big huge there's something really
big really huge that you're missing Dawn
or is it like nah you are on the money
Tazzy is the one to to maybe be a little
bit more cautious of just interested to
start a bit of discussion
>> good on you Todd
>> yeah it' be fun
>> discuss discuss away folks discuss away
>> all right where is Tazzy sitting on the
the ladder
>> so Tazzy is tied at number five
>> tied with where
>> oh Todd you'll have to hold on and wait
and see where that is
>> okay going to keep me in suspense Yeah,
strap in.
>> Okay, why [laughter]
why don't we go on to the next next
state? Let's start talking population
for where?
>> So, we are heading to New South Wales.
>> Okay, so one of the big guns,
>> one of the heavy hitters. Current
population in New South Wales is 8.2
million people. That is a lot of people.
>> There's so many people.
>> And 10 years time, it's predicted to
grow by 2 million people.
>> So, it's going to have 10.2 million
people. Correct. It's going to have four
whole Tasmania.
>> When's the last time you drove in
Sydney? I
>> haven't in a long time.
>> I know everyone complains about the
traffic everywhere, but where another
two million people on the roads. That's
that's um that's a lot of people in Sydney.
Sydney.
>> That's a significant amount. And their
rolling shortfall of homes that they're
behind in is 50,000. 44,533
to be exact, folks. On not your knickers.
knickers.
>> Wow. So what's your thoughts then? I
mean putting all of these people
somewhere the the whole metropolis of
three cities plan like Sydney's got a
vision for this. They're not they're not
listening to this episode going what did
did you hear what Todd Todd and Dawn said?
said?
>> Sydney is expanding
>> the metropolis of Sydney. You've got the
city of Penri. I mean they've got a
beach out there now you know in the
middle of
>> they just trucked one in.
>> They just trucked a beach in. But I
think there will be a lot of uh you know
for a sophisticated investor an investor
with deep pockets who can afford to hold
while they're reszoning Penri and all
those areas. There's a lot to be made
out there. You've got Paramata. You've
got all those areas where you can make a
lot. Um I just think that
>> there will be just this rise or this
race to affordability of assets now for
people. So it's not going to be about
houses on land anymore. You look at
places like Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane,
the major cities, it's going to be a
race towards units and town houses and
apartments. Todd, when I'm talking about
units, so you can all like, you know,
again, calm down in the comments. I'm
not talking about high-rise apartment
buildings of a thousand, you know, uh,
out in Paramea. I'm talking about brick,
one of two units, like scarce assets
where there is scarcity and affordability.
affordability.
I'm seeing great value across Metro
Sydney and Metro Melbourne in units.
>> So, it's like an eight pack with a walk
up or a six-pack or whatever. Like,
>> you can still get them under 500,000.
So, and a lot of them don't have body
corporate. And in a lot of these areas,
the houses are 1.5 million. So if you
want to take advantage of the arbitrage
between that and actually get yourself a
really solid unit asset, you have a
budget of less than 550, I would look at
assets like these in the highest
socioeconomic pocket you can afford with
the lowest building approvals and with
the highest price difference between
houses in the suburb and units. Can we
talk a couple of areas there because
everyone's going to lean forward a
little bit here and and I I feel like
cuz I was talking a little while ago
about this and it was more around like
Lemba Punch Bowl like but now it's more like
like
>> it's north right it's like you know
places like that so you can actually
yeah like around that ride area there's
a lot of uh potential in Sydney
>> and you just need to really uh you know
dig deep on that. I that's what I'll
give away on that. And of course, you
know, you've mentioned all the other
pockets there as well.
>> Okay. I I'll stop pushing.
>> Well, no push away. But I I just think
there's so much opportunity there. Even
for unit blocks, we were talking about
that earlier. Now, unit blocks are not
for everybody, but some of the smartest
investors we know, what are they buying?
>> Unit blocks.
>> Yeah. For how much?
>> Well, a lot more. Like, and it depends
on who you're talking about. And that's
why Yeah.
It's it's a different strategy at a
different price point when you get to
that level though.
>> 5 million plus we're talking about.
>> Yeah, pretty much. Yeah. So, if if
you're talking about normal mom and dad
investors, it's a little bit tricky.
>> I would prefer to buy a unit in a high
socioeconomic pocket for under 550 than
spend 550 on, you know, a fibro
something in the middle of nowhere.
>> That's just me.
>> So, in terms of shortfalls, can we talk
a little bit more about what's getting
built? What's what's not getting built
more importantly
>> 40. So their rolling average in New
South Wales is they're they're down
44,000 homes.
>> 44,000 homes. And you said rolling
average. So every year it's is pretty
much the same thing.
>> It's Yeah. It's adding to every year
they can't catch up.
>> Going back to this population graph,
we're at the high series. So there's a
high series, a midseries, a low series,
and then zero net overseas migration. If
you actually just kind of look back to
2022 where we were and then now where we
are in 2026, we're pretty much bang on
there with the high series. And and I
feel like from what you're saying, a way
to make us catch up would be if if it
didn't get turned off, but it just kind
of slowed down a little bit, but then
there's all these other knock-on effects of
of
>> they can slow it down.
>> If they slow it down, they're going to
reduce the skilled migration. We have a
construction worker shortage. uh you
know like the new multi-millionaires in
the next 10 years will be electricians,
chippies, brickies, they are the the
next wealth generation in my opinion.
>> I think you're right. As long as they
actually hold on to and invest their
money. If they just earn it and spend it
then no.
>> Yeah. If they spend it on jet skis and
you know bags and beers and babes then
it's you know that's probably generalizing.
generalizing.
>> Well it's a good time but it's it's not
a long time is it?
>> No it's not.
We're old now, Todd.
>> I know.
>> So, things are pretty grim if Bunnings
are releasing a studio for 27,000. So,
tell me how many investors, Todd, you're
going to see tacking those up in the
backyard of their homes.
>> Well, you and I look at this
differently. I I don't mind them in the
right circumstances. Not in all that.
There's sometimes that you're right,
tacking them up in the backyard is
probably the best way to describe them.
But I look at stuff like this and I'm
curious about it because I actually
personally wouldn't mind buying one and
just making some content around it to be
like, is this a flop or is this actually
something that's really good?
>> And does it meet rental standards? Like
how much would it cost to wire something
like that up? Would you reckon?
>> It would be so silly of them to do this
and not meet rental standards like May
maybe. And and I know like we've got an
article on the screen right now. This is
just random from like news.com.au.
>> Always a good source of truth.
>> Yeah. Binks launches 26k flat pack
backyard pods as Australian housing
crisis deepers.
>> That is grim. And so this is where this
is where the I don't understand the
cookers who are like, you know, the the
housing market's going to crash, mate.
There is such a floor under this thing.
It's so protected. There is no crash.
>> We should get these metab balance. Look
at that. I wouldn't mind abs like that
at the moment. I haven't had a stomach
while that in a long time.
>> Yeah. The only six-pack I have is a
bloody six-pack of beer.
>> But this is kind of towards the point
though we're talking about where are all
of these people going? It's going to be
[laughter]
park with these. But but realistically
>> this is the kind of stuff that could it
depends because this might be a total
disaster. Okay. These might be
absolutely like dogs breakfast, but
maybe they're not.
>> For an investor, they could be a really
great solution for cash flow.
>> Well, 26 grand then if you get that put
up for another call it what anywhere
between 30 and 50 depending on footings
where it's going yield on that is pretty
all right.
>> It's it's like 30%.
>> And imagine if you put a few of them on
the back of your yard. Well, then it
depends as well because like the whole
small secondary dwelling or SSD like in
in South Australia, I remember talking
with one of the councils, we've got like
2,000 square meters in a regional town
somewhere and um we were talking about
it and they basically said like wink
wink nudge nudge doesn't say how many
you can put on.
>> Well, that's what I would assume as well
>> because to me I was like isn't it in the
title though small secondary dwelling?
She's like no there's actually nothing
about if you can put on one, two, five
or Yeah.
>> Yeah. So maybe you're right. Maybe
another block of units out there coming
soon. But
>> stacked on top of each other.
>> But look, it is pretty grim though,
isn't it? Like I feel like for the
bloody like first home buyers and
everyone out there, you know, but we're
just really shining a spotlight, I
guess, on the population growth that's
happening and like what's happening in
New South Wales, the metropolis as they
call it. It's massive.
>> So there's not as much building
happening in New South Wales. There is a
lot of people estimated to actually be
living in New South Wales. Two million
over the next 10 years.
>> In Badre's Creek.
>> Yeah. And in Bunnings Flatpacks, >> correct?
>> correct?
>> Where is it on the list?
>> Do you want a drum roll? Like a proper
one? Can we can we put in a drum roll, please?
please?
>> Number one.
>> Number one. Fantastic. All right. So,
anyone that's looking at investing in
New South Wales, like we said at the
very beginning, this is not an isolated
indicator to make an inclo like actually
nothing on the episodes that just you
don't just run away and make it as a
financial decision.
>> But you're talking about this as being
one of the highest pressure states as
far as building approvals being lower
and population being the highest.
>> Yes. And I will say like have a look
around uh you know Mland, East Mland,
there's still some really good
opportunities around that pocket outside
of Newcastle that haven't grown as much.
And have a look at different asset types
as well. So don't be so biased against
units and town houses that are
affordable for the local demographic,
>> okay? Don't sleep on those because I
certainly am not. And affordable is the
word to underline them.
>> Yeah, because not everyone can afford a
$2 million house.
>> No, very few people can.
>> But that's what most of them are costing
now. Even town houses in Sydney.
>> All right. Next up,
>> the territory.
>> Oh, we're going up to the NT.
>> We are. 250,000 people live there. Do
they? In the whole of the NT.
>> Yeah. The whole Yeah, cuz you're talking
like Alice Springs, Tenant Creek,
Catherine, all the rest of them.
Interesting places to go to.
>> You've been?
>> Yeah. I rode a bike through them.
>> And you're still here?
>> Yep. I was in Tennet Creek for my 30th
birthday riding a pushy through there. >> Wow.
>> Wow.
>> Yeah. But anyway, um I wouldn't go there
on a holiday.
>> It's it's a it's an acquired taste.
>> The wild the wild and wonderful territory.
territory.
>> Every pub, every everything had a police
officer, a security guard, bars, very
>> it's a very small population, isn't it?
And like it's only growing by 10,000
people each year. The projection is in
10 years 100,000 people. So pretty
pretty poulry. Yeah.
>> Like I'm not excited.
>> But we're talking more so about Darwin
though, realistically. I don't think
anyone listening right now is like, "Oh,
I told I was about to buy a house in
Tennet Creek."
>> Like Alice Springs.
>> Yeah. Or Alice Springs. Alice and
they've got their own issues right now.
Darwin though. Darwin's in the
spotlight. There's a lot of people
talking about Darwin.
>> There is. Well, of course, because you
know they the people there earn like
massive wages. But do they earn massive
wages to attract them to work there?
>> Yes. So, do a lot of people actually
choose to live there permanently or is
it transient?
>> What does the population data say?
>> Well, only 10,000 people are moving
there a year.
>> So, if we're talking 10,000 a year, so
we're having what is that then? 100,000
people moving there over the course of
the next 10 years. So, less than Tazzy
>> and that's why it's, you know, number
six on our list.
>> Talk to me about building approvals,
though, because it might only be 10,000
people a year moving there. There's not
even like let me just see the data on that.
that.
>> It's actually one of the things that
annoys me about the NT like more
specifically Darwin try and find like
bushfire or flood maps and
>> it's impossible. So I was trying to find
data from the ABS on you know the NT's
like housing and I couldn't
categorically give a figure that would
you know
>> stack up.
>> Everything that I could find was more estimates.
estimates.
>> Yeah. They're they're saying that
they're meeting their targets basically.
They're very secretive up in the NT. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> Who knows what's happening up there.
It's a beautiful place. I really do want
to um I really do want to visit. I want
to go to like Kakadoo National Park and
uh you know, just
>> go do that crocodile thing.
>> Yes, I would love that.
>> I wouldn't touch it, but it looks like
it could be fun if you're that way inclined.
inclined.
>> So, as we said, population growth isn't
everything. So there's so much going for
Darwin and that's why 2026 it it will be
again the the nation's strongest
performer as far as capital growth.
>> Why is it the last on the list then?
>> Well, we're not talking about population
growth or you know we're not talking
about capital growth just for next year
or the year after. We're looking at a
10-year outlook.
>> Okay. So you're saying Darwin's got
potential then to to do all right in the
next year or two or whatever in the
short term. However, looking down the
track further, there's not that many
people moving to it. Finding solid data
on how many houses are actually getting
built is really tricky and it's
basically at the bottom of the list
because there's not a huge amount of
population and I guess we can't
substantiate the builds. >> Correct.
>> Correct.
>> Makes sense. Anything else you want to
talk about with Darwin before we move on?
on?
>> No, it's just Yeah, it's going to do so
well for investors this year.
>> Let's move on to next one on the list.
>> Queensland. Sunny Queensland. Current
population 5.3 million. This is like an
absolute whopper. Next 10 years, 1.9 million.
million.
>> 1.9 million in Queensland
>> for Queensland.
>> That's huge.
>> That's basically New South Wales.
>> There's so many growth hubs around
Brisbane as well. So you've got the
Morton Bay region, North Lake, Kabul,
Redcliffe, you've got Greater
Springfield, Ripley, Ipsswitch, Logan.
So there's a lot of building going on,
but they're still behind in their bills.
>> Well, not to forget Gold Coast as well.
You're going down there. I mean, I know
it's not actually Brisbane, but it's
down there.
>> It's Queensland. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> But their shortfall for housing is 48,737
48,737
rolling average.
>> So more than like they're they're not
building using a de double negative there.
there. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> That they're in a bigger shortfall than
New South Wales.
>> Correct. The thing though is will
Queensland reach an affordability? It's
already in an affordability crisis, but
that will worsen. What was it like in
the I think early 2010s [clears throat]
uh or the the late naughties there was
like a 10% difference between the price
of Brrizzy like med house price of
Brrizzy and med house price of Sydney
>> um there's a lot more than a 10%
difference now I think we look at it now
and think because what is it now a
million something around there
>> I don't know the exact figure there you
go more we look at it from the what it's
grown from and go well it can't go anymore
anymore
>> it can
>> if we're talking about this much
pressure as well. I'm assuming this is
going to be higher on the list. But
before we actually give this a ranking,
talk to me more about again supply
shortage, growth corridors, building.
What are the stats or any other data
people really need to understand as investors?
investors?
>> I think people need to understand that
the governments will have to do
something to incentivize building. So my
concern is buying this late into a
cycle, if there is some announcement
later on in the year that encourages
mass building or there is something
that's going to encourage it, what if
the supply meets the demand, you're
going to then get a stall. So if you try
and focus on an area that's had
significant growth already and you back
that horse
>> you know could you be doing yourself and
your portfolio a disservice
>> or do you go all in and say well I
believe the government won't be able to
you know meet their targets supply
constraints will still exist I think
that as an investor you just need to
weigh up according to your risk appetite
>> so it's basically the bet about can the
government actually solve the problem
>> correct Yeah, makes sense.
>> But is housing going to correct? I can't
see that happening because there's too
many constraints within the market.
>> I I kind of enjoy a good conspiracy theory.
theory.
>> Okay, go for it.
>> No, no, no, no. I'm I'm not going to get
like I'm not actually a conspiracy
theorist. I just enjoy listening to
them. It's like the flatearthers. They
they they fascinate me.
>> The 18.6 cycle people.
>> No, no, no, no, no, not that. But it's
just more about I remember one day I
think it was actually Stephen Hawkings
that was talking about um and I won't do
a Stephen Hawkings impression don't
worry but I [laughter]
I remember him saying something to the
effect of it the government can't even solve
solve
like XYZ like they can't do the taxes
properly have you ever tried to register
your car or change the name on your
insurance like it's these simple things
but you think that they have kept the
moon landing a secret for this long you
think that they have to like NASA has
held fact that the earth is actually
flat for this long. If they can't do
these simple things, then how are they
pulling off these amazing like heists,
these amazing and to me it's like if
they if what you're talking about now
about them solving it 44,000 short a
year, 46,000 short a year for like
everything apart from Tazzy so far,
6,000 plus apparently like everything is
short. If they can't solve it now,
what where's this solution coming from
that they're just sitting on?
>> Exactly. and they've just put fire under
it by doing the 5% first homeowner
deposit without any cap.
>> Yeah. Yeah.
>> I don't know who's advising them. So,
they're just adding more and more fuel.
So, is it a good time to be an investor
in Australian real estate? Yes. If you
know what you're doing.
>> Yeah. Not a unit in Paramata. >> No,
>> No,
>> we're not in a high-rise.
>> No, not in a highrise. Definitely not.
>> All right. Where is this on the list?
>> So, Queensland is coming in at number
two and it is tied. There is another
contender for second place.
>> Okay. So, Queensland is tied up with
another state.
>> Yes. So, shall we move on?
>> Let's move on
>> to where the state's capital is, the ACT.
ACT.
>> You've been?
>> Yes, I have been. I was there on a
little road trip during the summer
actually checking out some areas.
>> Did you go to that zoo?
>> I didn't go to the zoo. I went to the
science place.
>> It's the only reason I want to go back.
They've got it takes a year and a half,
two years to actually book a room and
but you can actually get like a room
with lines. >> Yeah,
>> Yeah,
>> you guys could do it though. We can't do
it yet because I think um minimum like
four years old for kids. I'm assuming
they freak out if there's maybe babies
or children or whatever there. It's the
only reason I want to go back to CRA
though. Looks incredible.
>> Yeah, it was um yeah, it was a cool
place. It reminded me of something out
of like the Hunger Games like capital.
It was a very bizarre.
>> Was that just all of the lifeless
politicians or?
>> Yeah. And I think it was because it was
summertime and everybody escapes. And
also it was interesting. Jerus Bay is
part of the ACT or it isn't or it is.
Quite confusing. ACT though has a
population of 450,000 people. And over
the next 10 years, it's going to have
very similar uh population growth as
Tasmania. 150,000 people. So again, not
shooting the lights out.
>> I feel like there's a real common theme
here then with um like the smaller
places. They're all the same. Yeah.
>> Yeah. But then when we're talking about
like WA, WA absolutely breaks that trend.
trend.
>> Smashes it.
>> Like a million people over the next 10
years or 1.1. Yeah. It could lose that
0.1 and and not even notice and then all
of a sudden it's changing everything for
for one of these smaller ones. But what
I'm really seeing here is if we're
looking at this through the lens of
being a longerterm investor, if we're
talking about purely the pressure of
population and also the building side of
things, it's the bigger states that are
really looking like the winners.
>> Correct. Well, you think about it, the
bigger states are going to have the more
diverse industries for employment. So,
if you have 5 million people moving to
this country in the next 10 years, these
people are going to need work. They're
going to need concentration of housing
and that's going to be in the metro
cities. I think over the last five, six
years, six, seven years, we've gotten
used to seeing regional areas
outperforming. We are now entering the
renaissance of the metro locations in
Australian real estate as far as growth
and also affordable asset types. Not any
more affordable locations where you can
buy houses for under 450,000.
Next, it'll be town houses and units
wellplaced in metro locations.
>> That's my tip. Yeah, I actually think
you're you're on the money there. And I
think that ACT though is looking like
it's not saying ACT is not going to do well.
well.
>> No, there's actually areas that look
really really good in the in the data.
Like you can look at places like, you
know, like Chisum. I can never say these
places, right? Uh you know,
>> sounds like you're saying something
dirty then. Gordon, [laughter] uh, you
know, it's all these kind of, uh, places
that are looking really good, but their
entry price point is in the 800,000s,
but again, they're high socioeconomic
pocket, so they have the propensity to
double, but a lot of the employment is
obviously tied to the government, and
you don't own the land there. It's like
a 99-year crown lease. So, there's just
a bit of a different uh, you know,
flavor with Canberra. But if you're an
investor with a large portfolio or you
want to look at diversifying into a
different state, Canra is definitely at
the bottom of its market and we have
explored some areas around Canra.
>> Love it. Where are we putting it on the list?
list?
>> Canra is tied at number five with Tasmania.
Tasmania.
>> Okay. So, popping it straight in the
same boat. I guess like when you were
talking about population growth,
everything else, but when we're talking
as far as their builds are concerned,
they're not in the surplus the same way
that Tazzy is, are they?
>> No, they're not. I think they're just
like meeting their their bills. Again,
it was really hard to find actual
concrete data on Canberra. I think that
there's just that much focus on uh you
know, trying to find like the the data
for the territory and for ACT was really
hard to find any housing. Uh you know,
>> wonder if that actually does have
anything to do with being territories
opposed to states.
>> It's a really good question. Does
anybody out there know the answer?
>> Please comment below if you do.
>> Next on the list, South Australia.
Current population of South Australia as
a whole is 1.8 million and projected
population growth is it's so modest
still in comparison to the other states
is 300,000 over the next 10 years.
>> That's hardly anything.
>> That's what she said. [laughter]
>> So that's what we've got over 10 just
quietly. Good. Like I [laughter] can't
can't
>> and and your shortfalls of homes you're
you know you guys are doing well with
your building. It's only 6,700 shortfall
of homes.
>> Okay. So, for people that are saying
that Adelaide's kind of done its dash
and we're talking longer term now,
>> I would say yes.
>> You're basically looking at this going
as much as there might be fuel left in
the tank for the next 6 months, 12
months, whatever. Like the shorter term
>> as a whole, but there will obviously be
markets within Adelaide that perhaps
have a really good second surge. So, if
they're still affordable, like you know,
your Happy Valleys or some of these
areas, they still might have another run
because, you know, they might still be
affordable for for people living there.
Um, but generally as a whole, Adelaide
has had such a long run, but I'm
hesitant to ride it off because it still
keeps growing.
>> Every every year like 2024 came around
like it'll slow down a little bit and
then 2025 it'll slow.
>> That's what everybody said. And that's
why when I saw people prematurely
selling out of even Adelaide or Perth, I
was like, what are you guys doing? Like
there's so much fuel left in the tank.
And this is my problem with property
trading as well is people sell their
properties too soon.
>> So people thought Perth was done and
it's gone another monster run. And as we
can see from the population growth
figures and building approvals, it's not
slowing down.
>> So if you sold Perth 12 months ago,
boohoo, sorry for you. You sold too
early. and let that be a lesson to, you
know, that yes, time in the market's
important, but you also have to hold an
asset to really reap the benefits.
>> Well, and as well, if you're talking
about holding it longer term, then why
are you trading anyway? Yeah.
>> Because, and this comes down to the kind
of investor you want to be, because
sometimes it is actually a good idea to
go, let's cut this one. Maybe the the
yield on purchase is pretty good, but
maybe the yield on current value is like
absolutely dismal. You it might be worth
1.5 million now and renting out for 700
bucks a week. It's like you could
probably put that money to use better elsewhere.
elsewhere. >> Correct.
>> Correct.
>> But otherwise, I see what you're saying.
So, you're basically looking at this now
going there's not that much population
growth selfishly as an Adeladian. Kind
of happy about that.
>> As a property investor, not so good.
This is now looking like the fuel does
have an end point for Adelaide. Again,
looking at these as isolated indicators
now, but
>> it makes sense, though. it. I just keep
looking at it and going, "All right, if
it costs like $900,000 to buy a house in
Happy Valley, like Morav, or $800,000, like
like
is that going to be a $1.4 million house
or $1.6 million house in in the next
like few?" No, I I don't think it is.
Again, more than happy to be proven
wrong. If if that's what happens,
amazing. I've got property there. I'd be
super pumped about that. But I I think
we're going to be waiting a little
while. And and when you think about the
history of Adelaide,
>> that is exactly how it happened last time.
time.
>> There was this huge like 10-year window
of just like pretty solid steady 3%
growth. It didn't didn't go backwards,
but it just kind of just kept ticking.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if
Adelaide didn't fall off a cliff, but if
Adelaide just kind of slowed down and
then just kept ticking along like that again.
again.
>> Well, that's just a pattern recognition
of what happens in market cycles. And if
you can unlock that pattern recognition,
you will consistently outperform. As I
said, we're going to start to see uh
you'll start to hear people talking more
about holding assets. You you'll see
people move away of a shift of the
narrative of selling assets because
number one, lending is tightening. You
don't think APPPA is going to start
challenging bank valuations and the, you
know, the Ponzi that's built on. There's
there's going to be so much regulation
that comes into the space. If you're in
the business of trading properties, I
would heavily consider your strategy
moving forward given the population
growth, given the housing in in, you
know, metro locations. I think time your
market entry into metro locations and
hold for the next while. Sell out and
buy commercial or whatever makes sense
in the next spoil. You know, like don't
hedge your bets on being able to trade
property so freely moving forward.
>> Where's Adelaide sitting on the list?
>> Adelaide is number four. So, we're not
at the back, but um we're sort of
solidly in the middle at the moment. >> Correct.
>> Correct.
>> It's kind of where Adelaide lives.
>> Adelaide is really underrated, I reckon.
>> I like it.
>> I think it's really, really underrated.
Where are we moving to next? We're
moving to everybody's favorite state to
bag out. Victoria.
>> It's the last one on the list to talk about.
about.
>> It is the last one on the list. We've
saved the best for last.
>> Okay. Tell me about Victoria. Now, this
I I'm assuming population growth is
going to be a juggernaut.
>> Oh, yeah. Like Victoria's current
population is 6.7 million people.
Population 2036 is projected to be 8.6.
That's an increase of 1.9 million, close
to 2 million people. So she's tied with
Queensland and New South Wales. They're
all really in that top three. New South
Wales, Victoria, and Queensland
>> is New South Wales was 2 million, but
Queensland and Victoria 1.9. Correct. >> Okay.
>> Okay.
>> The housing shortfall in Victoria, they
are actually behind on their bills. So
it's 32,244
homes behind. Now the growth corridors
in Victoria is uh you know the southeast
Melbourne uh Julong
um western Melbourne uh around Melton
but again not all of Melton has huge
building approvals. So we really like
Melton West Kuran Jang those areas
because of the uh you know billion
dollar hospital that's opening there.
But you think about it, all of these
things are put in place by governments
in anticipation of population growth.
They're not just building a
billion-dollar hospital in Melton just
for the sake of it. It's all
anticipatory. Hence why they're doing
all these tunnels, these east links,
west links, north links, you know,
bloody sideways links because it's going
to be one of the most populous cities
and states in the whole country. So, if
you're betting against Victoria over the
next 10 years to not outperform and
shoot the lights out, mark this right
now, time stamp it, you will be missing
out a lot of capital gain. And I will
say that on the record right here, right now.
now.
>> Couldn't agree more.
>> Good on you.
>> Yeah, I [laughter] 100%. I I I feel like
from so many different angles. We're
talking about from a pressure angle here
of not having enough supply, of having
so many people move to it. also talking
about it from a sentiment level of
Melbourne is a global city. Go anywhere
in the world, doesn't matter where
you're from in Australia, it'll be like,
"Oh, where you from? Melbourne or
Sydney." It's like those are always the
two choices. We talk about the
infrastructure that's being put in
there. Not even like the suburban rail
loop. Like that as a whole project, I
think, is it's scheduled to be finished
by 2080 or something insane. Like there
is a long-term plans. There is a huge
debt issue though.
>> Correct. A lot. talk to me about this
because the taxes are the things that I
think most people when it comes to
Victoria go, "Oh, I don't want to do
that." But then when you start actually
looking at
>> they're misinformed though. So it's
they're they're again it's a sentiment
issue. That's why psychology and
investing is vastly important. So our
Queensland properties cost us more to
hold than our Melbourne assets. So
because of the fact of Queensland
insurance and Queensland rates. So
>> what do you pay for um rates in one of
your Townsville properties?
>> Five grand. So, you know, and we won't
be holding those assets forever.
>> Like, we're actually in the process of
selling one of our very first investment
properties at the moment. So, and this
is why I, you know, I'm talking about
trading properties. We're selling it
because it became a headache is a
property in Mai and it just had issue
after issue based on weather and
whatever and it was just taking up too
much bandwidth. Now, in the space of a
year, like the thing has grown 180,000.
So, we'll take it, but we're just not
going to wait. We're going to put that
money to use somewhere else where we see
better long-term projections and that's
back into Jalong and back into Melbourne.
Melbourne.
>> And you know, I'm just being honest here
about, you know, like we haven't held
that property for very long, but it was
just too much of a headache. Very
transient with tenants. A lot of the
tenants they were moving in there were
there for work on 12-month contracts and
things like that. It was never anybody
staying there long term. So, these kind
of things were red flags to us. So yeah.
>> So as far as betting on Melbourne for
the longer term and as far as more of
it's its debt issue, what do you say to
anyone that's going like, "No, I'm not
going to invest. I don't care what
you're saying, Dawn. I don't care what
you're saying, Todd. I I think that
that's a state that is being run into
the ground because I've heard some very
strong opinions. So this isn't
necessarily mine. This is like echoing a
lot of thoughts.
>> Actually, I can't read minds. Opinions.
>> It's being run into the ground. It's
going to continue to be run into the
ground further. it's going to die a
death and Brisbane is going to take over
and it will be Sydney and Brisbane, not
Sydney and Melbourne anymore. Why?
>> I think that it's a very shortsighted
view based on opinion. So for me, like
we're heading into a state election in
November 2026 if there is a sentiment
shift because remember when the hard
moves, the hard moves fast. What do you
think is going to happen when people are
done buying in Tazzay and the Northern
Territory and whatever other place
they're buying in at the moment because
it's cheap, because it has rental
yields. They'll then start looking at
units in Melbourne. They'll start
looking at town houses. Then all of a
sudden the investor sentiment shifts.
Then it's like, "Oh, look, the west of
Melbourne is so cheap." Then everybody
jumps on the bandwagon. It doesn't take
very long for sentiment to shift. It's
only because people are seeing more
appealing opportunities now that it's
still on the back burner.
>> That's my That's my opinion.
>> Talk to me more about the election in
November. Do I get to vote cuz I don't
live there, but I own property there.
So, can I
>> No. So, but like the the Liberal
government are coming out with some
interesting things. I seen on one of the
um MP's uh you know uh pages she was she
was saying that um if elected they will
get rid of stamp duty for first home
buyers in Victoria.
>> Just gone. Yes, please.
>> Yeah, [laughter]
>> I would love that for our assets there.
>> Uh, and you know, just making it a more
friendly state for business. Of course,
it doesn't take away from the elephant
in the room that the state is in debt,
but so is New South Wales. Yeah. And you
don't think Queensland's going to be in
debt after the Olympics?
>> Depends on which way they go because
that's that's a shamzle waiting to
happen. Like they keep changing, no,
we're not building a state. Oh, wait a
second. We are. No, we're not. Oh,
actually, baby, we are.
>> So, they could change their land tax at
any point in time. So remember, if
you're investing based on stuff that you
can't control, like land tax and
governments, you're always going to lose
because you're not investing with the
lens of what makes sense, and that's
supply and demand metrics, affordability,
affordability,
and you know, uh, diversity of industry
and the economy. You're basing, you're
investing based on uh, biases.
>> It's one of the reasons I wanted to make
this episode with you today, Dawn,
because there's a few long-term factors
that is still a little bit um, crystal
ball to a certain extent. None of this
is like absolute. It's it's projections.
But I think there's a few though that
>> are still really good projections to pay
attention to for the longer term. If
you're not wanting to get in and out of
markets and be a property flipper and
trade constantly, then you want to know
where that long-term direction is really going.
going.
>> But you're right in the sense of things
can change outside of that pretty quickly.
quickly. >> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> Like the Lantax thing that is in
Victoria wasn't two years ago. That
that's relatively new. So, and I
remember they were almost going to bring
it in I think in 2021 2022 in um Queensland,
Queensland,
>> didn't they? And then a lot of people
sold off their properties beforehand.
So, you see how kneejerk people are.
They like people are insane. And it's
even all this talk about the government
will get rid of CGT discounts.
>> No, they won't. Like because they want
you to like, you know what I mean, keep
buying property. M
>> if anything it'll be an inheritance tax
on you know the the boomers the wealth
transfer which basically means when the
boomers die the government will want a
cut of all of that wealth transfer.
>> Well that is another good reason to
actually buy in a trust but that's a
different story
>> if you can if it makes sense for you.
>> So Victoria is number two and it is tied
>> so tied with Queensland.
>> Tied with Queensland our top three. So
going through the list, we've got number
one and two places is New South Wales at
the top, Queensland and Vic are tied and
then WA is number three. I kind of feel
like WA is potentially more of a
sleeping giant though purely just yeah
like that that is that is huge. Then SA
then Tazzy and ACT and NT is at the last
at the bottom of the list. The main
takeaway from for me from doing all of
this research and even selling the
property that that we have is that
I think that you can time markets for
short-term growth, which is great. I
think that you really need to have a
long-term outlook moving forward because
we never know what regulatory changes
there are going to be like, you know,
from APA and from governments. I think
there needs to be more of an emphasis on
holding properties for longer and having
a clear plan for your acquisition of
real estate.
>> Otherwise, I think you could get burnt
very easily because if a lot of
investors pull out of America quickly
and you're the one left holding the
baby, so to speak, and you can't sell
your asset, like that's terrifying to me.
me.
>> We spoke to someone just yesterday
talking about um 10 years ago and they
were helping people trying to get out of
Port Headland. M
>> uh Port Headland, I'm pretty sure, was
the only place that did 20% growth year
on year for 10 years straight. It was
just the golden goose that would never
stop laying eggs. And people were buying
I remember reading like the API
magazines years and years ago. And
people were buying these houses for 1.3
1.4 million. And this you got to
remember how long ago this was. That was
a lot of money.
>> Inflation adjusted. That's huge.
>> But they were renting out for $25,000 a
week. So these people were just like,
"Yeah, we can't lose. This is
incredible." blah blah blah Google Port
Headland now you you will see that it's
it has not done so well
>> but those people now still hold those
assets at their original debt levels
their original purchase prices
>> negative equity
>> I remember when I was in the mines in
2006 and a muka here's here's a fun one
for you to Google you couldn't buy a tin
shed there for $300,000 so expensive now
you you can't even give it away like
it's it it just it changes so much and I
think this is the important thing to to
remember as well like you're talking
about it that it is an evolving
landscape. There are certain
fundamentals that will always be the
same but there are certain ones that
they will change over time.
>> And I think it's going back to realizing
that investing isn't a getrichqu scheme.
You need to be able to hold these assets
and weather any economic turbulence and
just be safe in what you're investing.
Stop aiming for the aspirational,
you know, 10 property portfolio and just
focus on the boring stuff, the
fundamentals that actually work.
>> Do you have any assets in your portfolio
that you would sell, Todd?
>> Um, yeah. And this is actually something
Baker and I have been talking about a
little bit le recently is a few of the
the initial ones because they've also
done tremendously well. Like the very
first one we bought for 62 grand and I
think it's worth 350 now.
>> It's it's and that was in 2017. So, this
wasn't in like 1992. I'm not that old.
Um, like this this was fairly recently.
I just it was the deal of a century.
>> Would you pay off your mortgage with it?
>> Yeah. Yeah. And and the other one. Yeah.
What I'm actually thinking now is to to
actually pay down the unit block because
of what's owing on that. And then that
almost brings in it's $80,000 $90,000 a
year in itself.
>> And and we're talking about this from
the lens of where like I'm 40. you're,
you know, in your
>> I'm I'm 39
>> 60s 39. [laughter]
>> So, we're talking about this from a
different lens. Like, if you were in
your 20s, this isn't like, you know what
I mean, going to be relevant for you.
It's more so to see what we're thinking
about at our age.
>> But how long ago did it feel, and this
is the whole thing, like I was just
googling it before, like Pokémon Go was
the thing in 2016. If we're just
rewinding back like 10 years ago, it
will be 2036 before we know it. And
right now if you are 22 23 going like yeah whatever boomers
yeah whatever boomers I know I'm not a boomer but you know
I know I'm not a boomer but you know it's like it it might be hard to relate
it's like it it might be hard to relate but you you will be in this position.
but you you will be in this position. It's it's something that will happen but
It's it's something that will happen but it's going to be coming down to the
it's going to be coming down to the choices that you make now because I wish
choices that you make now because I wish I made better choices in my 20s. I
I made better choices in my 20s. I didn't start making them into my early
didn't start making them into my early 30s. I was just chasing drinks and girls
30s. I was just chasing drinks and girls and having fun and it was a lot of
and having fun and it was a lot of silliness.
silliness. >> Yeah. [laughter]
>> Yeah. [laughter] Uh what's what's the action step to?
Uh what's what's the action step to? >> Okay,
>> Okay, >> if someone wants to take out the
>> if someone wants to take out the earphones right now and go, okay, I get
earphones right now and go, okay, I get this. I can see longerterm view. I'm
this. I can see longerterm view. I'm looking at Victoria. I'm looking at
looking at Victoria. I'm looking at Queensland. I'm looking at New South
Queensland. I'm looking at New South Wales. Maybe I'm approaching NT, ACT,
Wales. Maybe I'm approaching NT, ACT, and Tazzy with a little bit more caution
and Tazzy with a little bit more caution through a longer term lens. What's
through a longer term lens. What's what's an action step they can pull out
what's an action step they can pull out the headphones and put into place
the headphones and put into place straight away? you need to focus on
straight away? you need to focus on where the opportunity lies and the risk
where the opportunity lies and the risk of lagging supply and what that means
of lagging supply and what that means for the housing market and all the
for the housing market and all the upside that it means for you. Like
upside that it means for you. Like Australia's population isn't slowing
Australia's population isn't slowing down and neither should your attention
down and neither should your attention on the market. Like you take your eyes
on the market. Like you take your eyes off of the market for a year and you
off of the market for a year and you know that's a that's a 100k opportunity
know that's a that's a 100k opportunity cost. So homes are behind the curve and
cost. So homes are behind the curve and if you know where to look, there's
if you know where to look, there's plenty of upside waiting for you.
plenty of upside waiting for you. >> Love it. Dawn Fuh here from Future Proof
>> Love it. Dawn Fuh here from Future Proof Property Advisory. Thank you so much for
Property Advisory. Thank you so much for jumping on the show. This has been a
jumping on the show. This has been a massive episode. I think this is going
massive episode. I think this is going to add a lot of perspective from a wider
to add a lot of perspective from a wider state-based level for a lot of people.
state-based level for a lot of people. >> 100%. It's that helicopter view.
انقر على أي نص أو طابع زمني للانتقال إلى تلك اللحظة في الفيديو
مشاركة:
معظم النصوص تصبح جاهزة في أقل من 5 ثوانٍ
نسخ بنقرة واحدة125+ لغةالبحث في المحتوىالانتقال إلى الطوابع الزمنية
الصق رابط YouTube
أدخل رابط أي فيديو YouTube للحصول على نصه الكامل
نموذج استخراج النص
معظم النصوص تصبح جاهزة في أقل من 5 ثوانٍ
احصل على إضافة Chrome
احصل على النصوص فوراً دون مغادرة YouTube. ثبّت إضافة Chrome للوصول بنقرة واحدة إلى نص أي فيديو مباشرةً من صفحة المشاهدة.
